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B/CN.14/IH"E/163

21 April I969 Original; ENGLISH

-ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR AFRICA

THE CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY

IN. THE iDEVELOPMENT PROGRAMMES OF NORTH AFRICA (I964-I98O) .

Chapter

II III VI V

PREPARATORY NOTES . .. " . .' , ,

A.GENBRAIj VIEW OF THE MACRO-ECONOMIC "DATA.

AIGERIA ."".-. . ■ . . .."; ,'."."■ .

CONSTRUCTION IN THE MOROCCAN ECONOMY

1 6 16 26 32

M69-II23

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. , PREPAEATOET NOTES ■ ,.,:c ■.:,-, ;. ■ . .

Introduction: , . ,,.,

The main purpose of this paper, which is. part of the sectoral studies

L- on the North' Af>ic'an sub-region,,,.'!i.sv ^0; present, a realistic picture of the

^-construction indusiiry"in the natibnal .and sub^-regional economy? and to

■' th!e "development/;of "the /industry "towards. 198.0..- , ■■.■■.,■.. . \~ : ...

1 ■y/-i:;It- should afs:d" serve as the base for the projection of the various.

building matfe^ials industries$ at the. ^a^Qnal .level.j as welt, as providing

%';-bas^VlfbrH'lftttUr©"'in$e"r-i?eg;iojial co-operation in, ithe supply of building

materials components. .

,. On' the basis of this information it sh^>uld;aiso be possible to plan . the manpower needs of the construction industry for elaborating training schemes in the development of the required national professional cadres.

paper is based on the national accounts and statistics, the UET official statistics? the historical data supplied b;y the UHsub-regional

office, as well" as on the^'^Prp:yisional macro-reconomic data on economic development during the 6'"l6498O"

' These figures which give a fair understanding of the place of

construction in the economy .as. well as the future development trends, were : ■ not enough to show a clear picture of the internal composition of the

various branches of the industry* These at times have quite little in common (e.g. the building of dwellings,with the construction of railways - '■- :: : these* differ in the technology, the materials," the. machines. ,and: the

manpower used, as well as in the sources of finance).

To define the internal division;of the construction components is an

■ " extremely ■difficult task? not, onXy^. because, of thexunsta.ble.',natui;ei;-9f .this

"outdoor" industry, but mainly^ . ^cause of the inadequacy of the available -'■'' : statistics. These statisticss "to the extent they are .available j^d© not

usually include broad enough coverage and they are seldom comparable.

"■" ■•*"■■" ""Some of the figuress of;.employment for .example, are. roughs estimates.

However, all of these estimates'were based on existing partial datai;,and

""werei;ali6 "checked, to be'wltnin the boundaries of, well known,,'standards, so' '-:-":-;:-:ihat theiy "could be "relied',upon'..'as q,u.ite'sound" indicators* .: ' '. ■■.

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Construction "in the Economy

Construction plays a well established and essential role in the economy of any country,. ¥o matter how developed a country is and despite other national priorities,, the place of construction in capital, formation is generally stable. ' , "■* '"""■"-^-—~'L■"■-■■■--.-

To: convince the reader of the correctiiess ;of the abo.ve statement, one

must Visualize'- the products' of cpn,struc.tionVin-.,-the economic environment. *

■When we'wish to.^inyest in. ..a factory/for example.,, we must ^realize that ft production means - the machines, and the materials - are "clad" in buildings | and connected to services as mil as,,to supply and. marketing -roads,.

'. When we speak of education'and- development of cadres, we must visualize the buildings in which this is to take place,, .-•; = ■

.When we develop agriculture, we. must; see the water supply, and irrigation as well as the storage'and the roads, ^O-,!the. markets. ,. . .. ■.:.■ ■-}■:■■

"'■Social'and duiturai development is actually hospital buildings or

cultural centres-,

Even defence is not just 'the, mere weapons,,,-airplanes and equipment, but more barracks, stores*..and-hangars., . = '. . ; . -:,

,: Administration is. also office, buildings, and assembly ..halls.

Transport is not only; ]?uses or lorries but substantially-roads, bridges,

ports and. airfields, ■' :"'""!... " '...,['+',. '^.'V' ' ... - ".'^.-. ■-. ■■/

Mines and natural resources are.'once again roads,hangar^, offices,

worksnop1 buildings5 V' \

Thus, investment in.any sector of the economy has a substantial construction' part which.surpasses._ 50. per 'cent of the total investment .in many c;ase£.. It generally fluctuates .between 5O-65. per bent,.:Ts:ith no

direct reflation to the stage of development-.op.^o ^the-, national .^priorities of the'particular'country concerned! " ^' .' .:.,... ■■.

Moreover, if national priorities concentrate ..on housing-.i;nstead of

agriculture or manufacturing, ".'the sha^e of. investment - in., construction will

rn6;t "increase because there will .be 'ra parallel ;raise ,-^n. investment .in

■Mchlnery and equipment needed to. supply, the ^construction of'the houses and the people living therein"with agricultural products, food, industries, furniture, engineering products, transportation equipment, and more

electrical power.

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Page 3

This subject has. been thoroughly discussed in the ECA-papers-

"Housing- in; Africa" and^'The Construction Industry in Development

Programmes.1-1' ■/?i/

.The conclusions-of these documents .are- the foundation of tke: "■ ' '■

projection methodology used in this paper* -: ' ■= . :'- The Methodology

Based- on -observations .that; investment1 in-construction is the1 major share ; i.n GDFCP3 .and is more or less a fixed' percentage of- it (between 50 to 70 Per cent) we can estimate the future expected investment '■ in-; ■

construction by knowing projected fixed capital formation and by assuming expected -trends., on the basis of .historical data and governmental Lplans or

.Investment;;.in.;-cons-truction. means- the ■■ investment in. .aew- .construction

work .(including major...repairs.)... This.?, in. turn., is composed of four main

branchess. :; : . .-. . -. . ■;■.. ,...-■■■■ -:...■:_■ -.'■'. . ,::■■■■,■.'

■ : 'X\ '■ The construction, of dwellings f' ' ' "■ ..

2. ■; ■ The construction of non-residential-building in the productive

sector 3 .. -.; .■ ■' ■' ■-.-■ - . :..-"

3- The construction of non—residential building in the social

'sector1- (sociali overheads'),

4» .The aonstruction of civil engineering and-other, construction .-. works. ... . ■ .... . ; . - .:■••-■.■: ■.■■■

National statistics-do not always draw ■ the line-"between'Vfche four? . " ■..•

however. Sometimes there is a division into building works (dwellings plus:.-non;-residential buildings). ..-Otherr.times there are separate -figures

for investment in dwellings? while non—residential buildings.of all kinds ;!

are linked, togethers in one figure9 with the civil engineering and other construction works. .. .■ .■ . .-;*■.;. . -.;. . • ■ ■ ■. ;-.. ... - -.- '.>..=! ■..-.-

The formula for the division of construction to its mentioned■components is generally a result of the governmental priorities and the economic

developments .in tne country's economy..;.- .-. ." ■■'....■•. ■ - ■-.■- :■.■■■;•'■

■::...There is-hardly any industry.-.which, is--so .vulnerable to political... ■■

changes- or-instabilities as construe.tiQnf:. ■ The. figures of construction1 . ■ ■ •- investment j. the i:.ya:lue addedj or. cement .consumption show-clearly and: ■-'■:; ■.- ;.-.

distinctly,t-he,^^ears in which ma jp:r .political changes took place-, (eug:. ■ •■

independenqe^v for-other notable, go/lit ical --happenings:-? and; important economic. ; events such as devaluation or the founding of new oil extraction industries ;

as happened recently in Libya and in Algeria).

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Page" 4

/

Broadly speaking investment in civil engineering, and public .works

fluctuates "Between. 20-30- percent of GDFCF^wille housing .and'building .are ;

between 30-50" per cent of GDPCF. Too, observation suggests, that'When, the ratio of GDFCF to GDP falls to 10-15 per cent "or less, the building "component is 40 per cent or rao.res but if. the ratio of capital formation to GDP is

15 to 20 per' cent-and over, the building component in GDFCF would be 40 per,

cent or less . '

The division in investments -be-bw^eh'-dwellings and non-residential building's could not easily be defined. In some cases* however, it was

indicated that investment in "dwell ings increases somewhat if the ratio of ••

GDFCF in GDP; increases, '■■■'■ - - ; ; ■;;- " " ' u. . /■ ' '.'■■

v -Although there .are'not en;ough"'statistics to. define, in detail the ■ . " ■ division of the four main components of investments in construction-, . it is" , well known that the division is most influenced by the sources of finance ' and government policies? namely, private finance, sources tend to .invest mainly: in dwellings and secondly;in.'the productive non-residential buildings like factories3 shops, hotels, offices, etc. ' In contrasts public invest-'. .;

ments are mainly directed toward public civil engineering works like roads/

railways, water works, etc, and secondly'to the non-residential buildings which, have a more social and public character (e.g. schools, hospitals and other public utilities).'"'" ""

i.t; seoms that the non-residential- buildingjbecause of its being financed, from both private and public sourcesjdoes not suffer:the great

"ups and downs".which occur in reside.itial building or in. public works. . It may be'noted from observations in those of the African countries where detailed statistics are available, that the non-residential buildings component of GBFCF fluctuates between 10-2^ per cent of the-latter.-

This explanation is needed tounderstand the historical development.

and the future. trends•■ . '-..'._ . ■ ..■■:■

-Employment in construction is considered to be 6 per cent.of total', employment while it could be 2*5 per cent to more than 10 per cent of total active populations . . . , .. :

Employment in construction also correlates with cement"consumption,.[.

In a large number of selected countries (mainly in' the developed ones, because of availability, of sound statistics), the ratio between the annual cement^dohsumption and the'humber of persons engaged or employed was

mainly -"between .6-11 tons _per.; annum to one employee in : construction (some" . developing'Vcoun'tries' such as ;the. "Philippines'..had .'ratios in 1962 to 4.1.?1,.

Gha:na 5,2■r;l and Kenya 3.8 :■$}■ Canada .'3xad. 15^2si and .USA with 19.7s! .was the■ Mghest. in the ')' 1 ! " ' '

This correlation? which is0 aTso' marked for a' steady annual rate oif growth up to 7-8 per cent? is not so applicable in small developing

countries either because of the uncertainty of the employment statistics

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Page: 5

or for the small and unstable labbuir force? which distorts the ratio tha-fr

had such a great regularity in the developed countries.

For this reason this correlation was used here only for verifying the scattered or unreliable existing figures, or to .proyi.de, a;n aid,for finding

out employment figures ,■■ wheTe'-'su'ch^fi una:i/ailable.

Another correlation to cement consumption was the ratio of investment in US$ per -..ton-of cement consumed.,; O?his\ has quite a reasonable correlation, giving, for. the: less deyeloped-countries. .100-200 US$.per:ton? and ,for more

developed countries 200 to 40p USJ-per_r ton of cement consumed.

This indicator has been used also only for verification purposes.

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Page 6

CHAPTER II

A GENERAL VIErf OF THE MACRO-ECONOMIC DATA

Construction investments'; its resources and uses General Notes ■ ' "■"' -^0-'-' .■..■■.

The general picture o;f'^construction activity during the last few years is marked by efforts made by some of the governments to regain the

volume of the pre-independence <fays or, in some instances, to maintain the new reasonable level they Sbhieved after the first years of their independence. .-' ■ ■r:-;:n;^ ":■■■" ■" . ' "

In Morocco, construction activity reached? in 1965, the level it had in 1955 • Algeria was struggling to hold half the pre-independence level, while Libya and Tunisia were witnessing a continuous rise. In the Sudan the volume which was rising continuously suffered a sudden drop in 1965 which continued in 1966. The main financing means for

construction activities came from public sources, a fact which influenced the composition of activities, augmenting strongly the part of civil engineering works and keeping the building of dwellings at a low level.

However, construction activity kept its traditional honoured place in the economy of the sub-region, and remained one of the leading

construction industries in the African continent.

In I966, total construction investment in the North African sub-region

amounted to 1,489 million US$. This was 50 per cent of the sub-region's

GDFCF and represented one third of construction investment in the whole

continent (almost half if Southern Africa is excluded).

Of the above investment, some 51 per cent was in the four Maghreb countries, 43 per cent in the UAR and the rest in the Sudan-

The general picture of the last three years shows no great rise, in GDPCP, but for a slight increase in Algeria and in the UAR. There was regression in the Sudan and a "marking of time" in the rest of the Maghreb countries.

Table 1 also shows the picture of estimated investment in construction during the last few years. This shows steady growth in all the countries but for the Sudan. The marked growth should not be over-emphasized,

however, taking into consideration that the figures are in current values.

Allowance should be given to the steady increase in building costs which is liable to cover a substantial part of the higher values.

The two Maghreb countries which showed the largest growth in

construction investment were, Algeria and Libya (from 132 million and 98 million US& in 1964 to an estimated 236 million and 177 million US$ in

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v■•"■■-..■• Table1sBasicMaoro-EoonpmioDataintheConstructionIndustryin19o4-1965r GDFCPcur,pxv. 196419651966

■Constructionin— iaVcur,GDPatcur.factorValueaddedincons- 19651966s:vi964196'

Cement consumption

■factor cost. ■■ -=—(-tons.)™..

19661964h196$'19661964

329^ 368^ iibya 333^ 367

Morocco272.287

k 249

369 27

132-

28^

164-

275^ 139-

11 173 159

a/

2140^

177" 166 173a/

935 2268 875

1142 2403 ■-83-2-

33

2310^/ 99

—64.

37 1O4: -...7.6....

I29

807 331 Total-; Mag- ■hreo11031314554-6_63612365096747232256293 238 943986

,0,85^

566-592-1259 4333

!42^ 5010^/ 1327s' 73 5513^ 230

296-

.428 2239 sub-... region2364'-24?52343127.2135P.1489117151276113587535624705

673 .840 426 21362412 132 2289 48O34833- 'otosTheonlyavailable1966figureforcementconsumption(tons)injun^ia-474(estimate)* National"statisticsand-SGA-seco:etar.i^t_estimates*■*-■;;,..-;.,■'.■ .a/;Sstimat8_s.,X^ll_1966figuresareestimates)....—--.- H ■SBJ

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-Construction.inGDFGFtoGDP

Mnm-n-BconomicIndicators "Shareofvalue'Investmentin t ! 1966

03h-1. W H1 Valueaddedin constsPerton Algeria Morocco' ■Tunisia...

40 30 60;, 6C

50 •>■3.2*5 6b 7.2-■

6016 ,48'...".36" '60.■12 63■-28--

■17

^W^'^ ^ 32 .25 «8 273 ^ 5, 3..2 3.a. 35 .11 26; _300_ 252 1V*-*:r>31 *;64,^ 40^:.;41,48 480 446,365- 193,. W 175"

.1964 -84/;6::;88.0 10178

T23

TOTAL ■MAGHREB: .GION Sudan

47.52-,67-;--.19ao

17 ;: ^,8 3-9— 4.3 42 39..:. 39.. 260 275 '_... X°9... ™

6460, 60:60 66.,,;2? 60....2220

H- 5.8-^.8 6.8 48-; >; 355 720 20-5.3 r5-9 5.8 43-1 ,50^ 49 255 260^

170. 103.-.130 TOTAL SUB-REGION

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.,*^i&i^X-^s£mmm\tih&&*&ti)ts

Page 9

1^6$). In7^stmeni>:-,in..;tka.viJAK grew froin an estimated'566 million in 1964 to an estimated of-6.51--midlJion UStf in--1966. "

. The share of construction in Capital formation^ which for the sub—region reached:the figure of [64 per 'centj was offset in the previous -two1 years "by.

the abnormally low percentages in Algeria and Libya3 presumably because of the large investments in oil extraction installations. The other

countries had in. the figures between 60-66 per-cent except for Tunisia which in I965.had the exceptional figure of 72 per cent, .

It is worthwhile to note that the highest ratio of GDFCF to GEP was

registered in Tunisia (31 per cent for the last two years)!/ This corresponds

with other ratios showing that construction in GDFCF is quite high as well as.the value added.in construction which reached the highest figure on' the ' continent (9»4 Per cent of estimated GDP for I9663 while the sub-regional average that same year was 5.2 per cent and the African average much lower).

Composition of Investment- in ^Gon^truction ■ V

■'The composition of investment in construction "by use for the;whole ■■. \:'\

sub-region has been estimated for 1966 to have been the following!

Residential building

■Non-residential building

Other construction works 25%

100$

This composition looks a little different from that of"the developing countries'general standards, in which the share of residential and non-., residential buildings is higher. In our case3: the other construction'works have..a .substantially high' percentage. .Even1 :on a continental1 comparisony ' over the whole African region^ it seems that investment-in residential "'■

■buildings, is .substan-tially. low&r than the average while investment in other.;.construction"■.remained- a 'little; too high* . '

-;This treiod1 is^a^new one" and has formed mainly after- independence..' "

In Morocco? for .instance,, "other construction"- in 19^5 accounted for ever 5& .per/cent of investme-nt in construction, .and' 2J per cent Of GDFCF, Almost the same ratio has been noticed in Algeria- The investment in dwellings .reached its. lowest percentage of 15-per cent of investment in construction, in .Tunisia i^'196-51 ' The same has been estimated for Idbya

in 1966.- :.■■■■ ■'.-■" ■ ■■ " " ■; ;: .' ' ■■' ■■;". ..'"

Sudanese investment in dwellings fell from some 48 VeT cent of

investment in construction and 33^per cent of GDPGFS to only 13 per cent' . of construction in 1964* It rose again to 21 per cent in 1965, presumably;

because1 of the lack; of .funds: to continue ' the extensive investment in bi'vil engineering begun in the first years of the Ten-Year"*-*rlan-, ■ ■■' ' .';'.."

Preliminary figures

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Page 10" ■

;j?ftange indicates the severe drop in private-investineni:

^ ?? g° ra0I-e-i^° dwellings and industrial non-residential

This compelled governments to invest more heavily in construction

—f^ ^ StatSdj PUW1° ™t*ent finds a more applet. •WWOW;^ P^Wio works and in social non-re sddenial'•-:

.+a+B?^t0Sfher Vith the-efforts .of the governments of newly independent

states to develop a more balanced infrastructure than the former rulers ' ' ■

coition" ^ponen::.C°ntritated tO ^ ^M **«• ■*•*-« the

Because resources have been limited,, there has sometimes been a-

CfT^!d nSfleCt °f the h?usl««-wtittiea, leaving them partly

reluctant, private investor. ■ . .

emphasize this trend, it would be useful'to note that in 1964

In A^-f+h10 lnVestmen* was of 51;per:aSnt..of investment in constKu

in Algeria the same year 63 per cent, while in the Sudan in 1965/66 it was

Contribution to GDP

Tl^ addSd lnr oon^^9-t±on for the sub-region, as a whol^ reached, 4.7 per cent (as compared with 14.2.per cent in manufacturing).

At the same txme, this amounted' also to 35 per cent of the value added in construction for the whole continent (and almost half the continental total

ligure — if. Southern Africa is excluded). ;. .; . ■ ..-.■■. ■

...TIn Morocco ^.construction's (value added)share in. GDP rose. ,from 3.5'

per cent in ,^60 to 4-7 .per cent. in I966, with an annual rate of growth of/- , 0.^ per :9ent...;. In..Tunis it rose,in., the same years, from 5.2 per cent to -

9-3 per cent, with .annual, rate, of, growth of .14.4 per .cent. In Libya,.■ the share remaned almost constant at 3.1 -.3.6 because of the... structural ■ change in

the general composition and magnitude of GDP due to the oil extraction. In Algeria, the. share .dropped from the pre-independence level" of 8.1 per cent'; to 2.4 - 2.8 per ;cent, partly: .due also to the oil extraction, In the Sudan, the share was more steady - fluctuating between 5..8 per cent aid 7.9 per cent.

The highest ..ratio of, construction to GDP. was registered in I964 in

?n^S1\vJth -7-8 Per °ent;° • The lowest was in A^e.xia with 2.4 per cent in .

1962. All of.these rates, except for Algeria and Libya, were somewhat higher than, most-of the rest of the developing countries in Africa,

In,.the Maghreb,: construction is. .generally ranked fourth in terms ■

of ^.i,share ,in .Gf-^ampng the diffg^nt, prQ.duct.ive seatc-rs. The first" in

rank, is ..agriculture, followed by. manufaptuui-ng and mining (mining is first

m Libya and second in.:Algeria..). ■ In .-Tunisia, where mining's .constribution

is relatively lower, construction comes third*

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gi^w^

Page 11

ra,i%o of »;dpnst ruction to manufapturing^as. (in 1965) 1;1^ ;'l-in Libya? "1 s 1.6 in Tunisia, Is '1.8 in Algeria and almost is 1.3 in.Morocco

The last three countries show a higher ratio than most of the African countries) where construction is almost,equal to-manufacturing*

In the Sudan construction is second only to^"

manufabiruring is third. .; ' ' . '

Employment : .,■■..■.-■-- ■■

the manpower problem we.see that except for,Algeria, which

construction volume.'pgakih I960* and::is now at less than half of :- that -volume ^thie: volume'1 .of/'construction work-.in all .the", othe,r Maghreb

countries is on the increase, ..Thisj together with, the fact that/a great many non-nationals have1 left the countries after independence* has created deficiencies in qualified higher ranking local manpower. In Libya, fdr instance, in spite of the ;existavng financial- means for development? it is the lack of qualified manpower?.especially in the detailed planning sector, which was the bottleneck for implementation of many development plans.

This is not the.pase in Sudan where: a lack of funds caused, the

severe drop* in construction volume in 19&5- ^-s said befores it was

difficult to establish .reliable figu;r.e;s:^o.r/ employment in, construction.

It is estimated, however, that this figure in the. ;sub-region ;reached nearly

400,000 persons^ of wiiich nearly three-fifths were in the Maghreb, less

-. than one-tenth in the Sudan-and the rest, in UAR.,. . , .

In the Maghreb ttik highest laiiour ^prce,.can be presumed in Tunisia

and Morocco, with', more than 80,OpO,.persons each. Algeria has some 70JOOO labourers and Libya

The figures in Sudan are questionable but probably approximated 20 - 30 thousand before the drop of 1965..

In conclusion.it is felt that in the North African sub-region as a whole the shortage of qualified and:highly skilled 'personnel, may pose some difficulties in the future Expansion of the construction industry, but other manpower factors are not likely to be a constraint.

"Building Materials '"' " " " ' ■

;- Except for iron9 steel,, some engineering products and some timber,

^mpst. of -fcho t&Qic tuilding rca+Qrials are produced within- the sub-region and in sufficient quantities to supply the present and the near future needs.

: r , :The value of - imported building materials was soue US$ 200 million in I960, which meant, 1 per, cent. (bfvthe total investment in construction.

Sixty per cent of the imports that year were in iron and steel while sawn woods, veneers and plywoods accounted for another 24 per cent.

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Page 12

. - , In 1963? the value of. imported building, materials into .the. countries o.fj the sub-region was I85 million' US$</while.' in; 1965 it reached 19,1

Cement consumption in the Maghreb in 1965 was 2,412,000 tons and in the UAR and Sudan almost.the .same? 2,421, 000 tons* .Total' consumption of the sub-

region was'4,833,000 tons? which was 35 per cent of ..the. consumption .in the

whole of Africa and almost 52 per cent of the "African consumption excluding Southern Africa, In terms of world consumption, its share was nearly

1*2 per centQ ' . ---:■.,:,:.,.-il-

■ ' ;Cement is at present produced in .all the Maghreb countries, except fo.r Libya where .two cement"factories of approximate capacity of 1O85000

tons each are. underconstraction* The total installed capacity of the

.Maghreb ,inT966'.was. 2*52'million tons, "of .whioh1:--• . .■.,-'■■' '.-.'■

..;.■'.■ ' .". . ,.. Algeria■■■.:'.'914j000-1 . ' ;

■'.■."..■"":.",."". .'.'.,." Morocco , ,' %150,000 t ■ " ; "' ■".'""■";

'.". '".'' ,.:...■■..."" ; Tunisia .\. .,' 47.8,000 t ':" . ■ . "'■ ■;/'.:''. '"';

. The. UAR has.;a total capacity of 2,,4pO,000 tons with additional capacity of another^,2^060,000" tons planned and .under construction.. \

;.. .." In conclusions the installed and planned capacities are sufficient .ijo answer the/nee'ds of present demand as we 1.1 as thatof the near, future.

In this context3 it should be "mentioned that although the Maghreb could...be .self-sufficient in cement3 production and transport costs make it cheaper and More convenient at tiijies'jfor a country like'Libya, which is still the greatest importer of cement'in North Africa? to buy cement, out side the Maghreb. The producing. Maghreb countries have to seek other

for their .extra .production, . r ..

Other building materials like sand'and quarry, products are ample in the eub—regions except for the Sudan* [The.brick and red products industries, .as,, a..rule 3 have a higher capacity than the demand and wil!l not pose any

difficulties to :possit>le' expansion of the ' construction volume* ... ...

Asbestos cement is produced only in Morocco and Algeria3 with capacity of 35>OOO tons and 33?O0O tons respectively., while production in 1965

reached 65 to 73 per cent of the capacity. There are also -plans for installa'tion of small pro&uction-'units-.in1 Tunisia and. in Libya. The UAR is a -large 'producer of asbestos c^raentopfeo^u.cits^i-.Jihi'le-.'.in1 the Sudan^a factory is-about-to start. """■.:;:. ■ ■>. -\i': ' ■. ■■=■=■■ . .;^

The sub-region produces a great variety of cement products, such as oement-blocks, .tilesj-bricksj'pavj.ng'Stonesj lighting and other kinds of postsi'"irrigation channels and railway-sleepers... ■■.:'■'..■

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Page 13

It could "be said that the sub-regional "building materials industry- could supply the present and near future"needs of the countries, provided the production costs would he competitive-and intra-sub-7-regional. trade

satisfaptory.': : ■■'■■'- ■ ■ ..*-..-■.■ ■■ . ■ •■•. ■-■■■■

Some expansion of present cement production facilities, as well as' development of new units, is to be expected by the mid-seventies.

main--macro-economic indicators are summarized in the following

tables*' ,...,..■■ . . ■-■:.- .:; -,.:..■ ...

(16)

Page 14

Conclusions ' ' '■ "" "

. . ... .-T'c^r?;-:.. ■.-' ■ . ■ . . ■ .■.- -, ■■

The projection of construction investment and its components, has. been compiled as .already mentioned. It has been "based on the given projection of GDFCF in each country separate^*;- ■ :.■.-= . . ■ ■ -..■:■■■■,• ..: •

... ,r... ,

It should be noted in Table 3 that vriiile CDFCF in the Maghreb is

projected at an annual, compound rate of growth of...8.3 pe-rvoentf :tbe invest- raent in construction has a higher rate of 11*0 per cent per annum, "The - '■

reason is that construction in the early sixties suffered during the first years of independence. In the recovery process,it will be public financing which is bound to have dominant investment impact. Public finance is more

likely to be directed to infrastructure and to public utilities} thus fostering construction rather than manufacturing and equipment.

It is also worthwhile to note that while construction as a whole is projected to grow "by 11 per cent per annum the sectoral labour force in the Maghreb is foreseen to grow at only 4*6 per cent. This is explained by three factors.

a) Owing to the slow growth ^of. .the last few years9 the labour

force is under-employed.

b) A great improvement in productivity has to be expected over the next decade due to extensive mechanisation which will be introduced.

c) The technological development expected to accompany intensive investment in ~c*OTs'Truction will probably

encourage the introduction of more mechanized components.

This will reduce the share of site labour per construction unit.

For the building materials and components sector;, which has sufficient capacity for the next few years, in the early and middle seventies a great expansion should be foreseen. Investments are expected to be? in I98O3 more than four times the 1964 figure and more than twice the 1970 figure.

The building materials and components industry will be dealt with separately.

(17)

Table3s'Projectionofconstruction'investmentintheNorthAfrican,sub-region"byitscomponentsand theemployment(million 1964197019751980

Annual Compound Rateof Growth Investmentinconstruction Maghreb SudanandU.A.R. Totalsub-region Investmentindwellings Maghreb SudanandU.A-R. Totalsub-region Investmentinnon-residentialbuildihgs Maghreb;' SudanandU.A»R« Totalsub-region Investmentinothercontractionwoijks Maghrefc--.';v. SudanandUpA.R.;. Totalsub-region

504 124

1073 223-337 113280 267570

448 825

2436 505 709 1222 Projectedsub-rekionalemploymentinconstruction Personsengagedincon^trulDtion(lOOO)j Maghreb: SudanandU..A.R.;■■ Totalsub-region;

261/:/-:400 H

(18)

Page; 16/

\ I CHAPTER III !':. >: -■

i. ] ALGERIA !

1 ' !

Construction in the Economy ... .. j

Constructionjactivity in Algeria grew continuously!dur|ng jfche

fifties. The peai of this growth was reached m I960. (With infleT>

in t962, it declined to 40 per cent of this peak and hajs remained ;

level- I , . ri ^ I ___ j {■'•■

! The gross output & construction was 2*000 miHion[dinirsf (sqihe 405

million US&) i^lb63, or 12-5 per cent of the country*b ; gross optpu^of 16460 millionfefiars (3,270 million US$) in that year.; [ £

I The value ^dked, that same year, was'4^5 per.cent! of ^rosjs oujput,

while the'expeidijtures on labour and including the :yanpus; social ^arges,

reaped almost!^ per cent of the gross output and'flonwj 64'per joent^f the

value added. Li. * ' \r:

j In 1961 tbe lvalue; added was 55-5 per cent of €ros^ output, TOtf. labour coJtent was 29!^ cent and of the 44-5 percent of..purchase _from oj;her sectors, 40 pepiqent were purchases of direct building piatena^s. :

! It is notkb^e that during the period from 1950 to]196l oopru^ion

output gr-ew by* 76; per cent while manufacturing and^electricityjacre: than

doubled. ' This,i4; seen in table'Al.

TaUl

ie AX : faildex lumbers of Manufacturing, Electricity and;

out-out in |IUeria.(X95On3LQOl . ; j

Manufacturing . Electricity, gas

Construction

:12j2

l/ This in-cludes 922 for. thejpetroleun}

1952 1953 1954^955 1956 1957 1958 1959 196q

120 120 133; 147 159 169 196 ;200 21?

Consit ruction

1962 1963

118 .129 138'r". 145 157 166 178 196 216 227: 195 181

1172 17$ *76:

109 tno 115 '. 116 121 128 147

North Africa 1950-1963.

million dinars(l87

industry..

j$)output' of public worKs

(19)

fe^

Page 17

Table A2 .. .8 ; Construction, S&are ..in ..£DP

.Year ■ • ■ . ■ --': ■ - .... C6ristructi-6n in 'GDP

1953- ' . ■V1-:■.■■■"■ ,. ■/"■ '■- : 5.8 " -:'

1954' .-.■■■ ■,"'■■■.■'■■■ - : ' 6.8 ■■

,1955, — ' ". ■ 6-5 ■ ■■■■ '

■i?57 . . . ■ ■ ■ - •-4.e--- ■ ■ 4fe8 ! ■" ■ ■ ■: ■■" . ■ • .-■.■j--s.v7 ■ ■ "■■

6.9

. I965 " ■ ' - ■ ' ' 2'.6 ■ ..■■•'! v ■■■• ;

,.-a966;/ .,;,- ■ ..-■ ■'■ ■■ ■■ . -; ■ 2.7 ■ ->,- ■■- < '■■"'■"- "I

Un Yearbook of National Accounts Staiistics i960 United Nations Mew York, I96I. Data from I958 onwards, Statistioal.bulletin

for Africa,; March 1967> ^able-16.'. ;'"'; : . .". ,.., ■ -;: ■ . ..;;,!./■ ,,,■

'a/ EGA1, secretariat'"'estimates,

Value added in construction, as seen in Table A2, fluctuated around 5-7 pe*" cent of GDP in the fifties? reaching a striking peak of 8.1 per cent in 1959 with a severe drop to 2.4 one ^ear after independence■ This

share has remained at almost the same level (slightly under 3 pei* cent)

since then. It should be noted that the total GDP has not suffered a oomparably severe drop and has already reached its preindependence level.

The absolute value added in construction dropped in 1963 to less than one third of its 1959 value. Obviously the greatest setback has been suffered in the public work and in non-residential buildings. In 1959 these amounted to almost two-thirds of the value added in construction, while in 1963 it was hardly one-quarter of the already reduced value added in construction.

The explanation for these changes can be found in the political struggle before $ and closely after, independence which reduced public financing to a very low level. Publicly financed construction was the first to suffer. Construction could have come almost to a standstill in these hard tiues if it had not been for the oil extraction industries which fortunately maintained investment impact.

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Page 18

Construction

The picture of.construction in capital formation will become quite a complex one" if we '"take into -consideration on one side ..tliei investments in oil explorations- in.pipelines and other related investments in the Saharan Department and on the other side the economic instability shortly

before and after independence. . .- ■

Howevers one could *not possibly disregard the extraordinary factor of oil exploration and'.extraction. This began in the late .fifties and reached a peak of some 1600 million dinars in i960, more -than one third of

new investment in the country. ■■

Table A3 illustrates this peculiar development in the structure of capital formation with its construction share. ■■■"..;.

Tne absolute value-of investment in construction had; .been rising

steadily, reaching a level of 2?500 million dinars in lj.6li It can also

be seen that the strong rise-in- investment-began-.-in~.i958 and paralleled Q^lfexplo.ration3 pipeline. laying and exploitation.

"" Thei—dTa.'S'tic-'fa±l '■ in ' investment in'lf6£' is"±n-l-ine-wi.th:-the decrease in value added in public wor&s'ahd in non^-residential-vbuiiaing mentioned

earlier- . ' .-,*,-■'•.■■... ' \

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Page

Table A3 : CECFCF in Algeria (in millions of current, dinars')

1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 I960 1961 1962 1963

Northern Algeria

Construction 652 784 816 76O 769 853 928 I314 1708 2221 2494 1309 500 Equipment .741 742.663 673 .685 733 750 891 532 821 828 .395 177 GDPCF 1393 1526 1479 1433 I454 1576 1678 2205 2240 3Q42 3322"17O4 677

Saharian district

Research - 10 38 103 138 178 249 305 394 400 490

Piping - - - 17 142...522 618 350

Exploit investment 14 1G8 33^-..5O5 554 47Q

Total - 10 38 103 138 192 374 778" 1421 1572 1310 1130 672

Algeria total

1393 152.6. 1479 1433 1454 1590 1795 2678 3267 4214 4142)28,A

Research -. 10 38 103 138 178 249 305 344 400 490) ^

GDFCF (incl. .. .. ..

Research) 1393 1536'1517 1536 1592 1768 2044 2983 3611 4614 4632 2834 1349

Gonstruction

(exold.piping) as fo .of GDFCF

(incl.oil

research) 46 51 53 48 48 48 45 44 , 47 48 54 46 37

Source: Estimation Provisoire "by M. Chalakj Directeur? Gen.' du Plan et des etudes economiques.

It should be noted that Alger.ia.. has._the..:'.M:glie.st... rate of capital formation to GDP among the North African countriesj

Table . flhe" Percentage ratio of • GDFGF to GDP -

Tear ' . ... ... Percentage

1956 1957 ■■■:■

1958-. ■

24?$■

21:

20 20'

24

(22)

Table A4 (cont'd)

Percentage..

32.

24

■'Sources Economic Growth in Itforth Africa 195G-1963 - page 70.

Table A5 s Cement Consumption, in Algeria in 1,000 tons

Tear ' .. ' . 1000 tons

- :■ " • 1951" : 534

"■ '■■■ 1952 ■ ■ - ■ ■-■-'■■ 573

1953 608

1954 696

1955 . . 775- ...

■■■■■■ ■■1-956 ■ '"■ ^ ■■ "-- ■ ■ ■ . '■ 77.6 ■ -^■■•1

-1957 "■■ L ' 754

1958 . 1129

: ■ 1959 .■ ■■ ■■■■■ - '■■ 1397

1960 1597

1961 1300

1962 687

1963 597

1964 : 669

1965 673

: -.,,, ■- . ... - . Employment, and Output ■ . -...;;

There are no recent figures on employment in construction, The I964 figures gi~ven in:_:.the .ata'tistics. re:pr-es;ent:.--o-nly.1..cu-;^e-nsus sample-of ■ 268 reporting establishments. One must also qualify the figure of value added per person engaged'.'.'as. it has probably been received'-from the bigger1

sntexprises and doubtless does not include a multitude of labourers working in smaller enterprises whose value added is l

The employment figures of the previous years'.seem to be more complete although it is still doubtful whether they include^all the labour force.

Vie can check the figures on the cement consumption basis, thus having in 1964 a consumption of 6e8 tons cement per construction labourer employed

(23)

Page 21

(or 7*2 per employed labourer)• This figure jis quite a normal one. On

the other hand we get in 1958, 1959 and I960 ^fehe figures of 1(3.9$ 11.6

and 12.2 tons cement per construction labourer per annum. That.figure; is a little too high in comparison with similar countries and indicates one or more of the following elements s ■ ■■' ."-:

a. employment figures incomplete ; :: .

b. . very ;high-productivity $ and ... ■■. .. . ■ ; -.

c. low Rousing standards whose main part is the '-'•■-'■ . . •

cjSme^t based structure rather than high ■,

. . . standard, finishing which diminish cement's _. \. V ifelaffcive- share. ■ ' .- ■-■ ' '■"'..)., :!: ■ It would 401/be advisable to use the figures of 1958-1961? a& it; o'a^v be seen from tke 0ement consumption table that it reached exceptionally 'p- high figures irf; that period indicating a construction boom that could nof^

reflect a true picture of the industry. Thus the figures of 1954'-would i>e used more safely as a base for projection. . .- . I

Thk Structure of the Industry and its Activities .■

More than 70; per* cent of building word's in 19^1; and almost 80 per ;■ .

cent of public works were carried out by contractors. No dtaiistics are.

available on;this subject after that date, but one may assumei that this^

percentage <&$&■ decreased since independence with the increased governmental

public works*- : ;n ■■■■ ■ ■ ; :: : -.I-''

i'- . ■..■'

Traditional; building in dwellings is still very popular.. In d$6Z; .

the expenditiiire jon traditional buildings reached 62 per cent of r total '\y

expenditure fan "building. o. .... ' ' '-■^i ■■'■' : }■■:'■ I ; ""'" ■ : - ■ '.-:;- .-■ i - u-'-| ■;;;

■■1 ; :.;■ -,„.. . f--= ■' 1

Forty-e!ighi per cent of the value added in building was -.£ii£thle ;"'-■■

traditional f:secjsor. | f;>

^ iniddle of .the fifties? notable progress has l?een made "feyI the. builda^-: and public works industry. Ur£$.n dwellings? of Which only 12,000 we^"e]:;:sta;rted in 1955) reached a peak of 33,631. in 19^1 (a pro portionate^: growth qa^n be noticed in cement consumption). This will be*

seen in ite.:fo|lowi"n'g Table. ;$n 1962 thare was a drop in output which reached s'e^r^rproportions in 1964 with only Bom&]700Q urban dwellings

being '

(24)

TableA6sProjectionofviny.estmentinconstruction,anditscomponents,1964-198Q

o H G&iJ'C Shareofconstruction'■'■ iz?GDFCF.._; Investmentinconstruction127 Shareofinvestment dwellings Investmentindwellings Sh?reofinvestmentin non-residentialbuildings Investmentinnon- residentialbuildings Shareofinvestmentin atierconstructions Investmentinother constructions

.31

45 12. 11 V-22,

1970 ,.qfoer-t1975 .Mill.Par1980 Mill.Percent ofGDFCFInriu^lj.oompound rate:of"growth?-;?*■; 440 19845 12 11 22 163!-

50: ■3S5!:' -I'-.■t'-! .100»• 13- .23.

1130 622 170

55 14 158' 294

11.7 11.7 11.4

' Souroe of GDFCF figures-,.... ^rovlsionai maoxo^economio data onf'eoonomic

duringtheperiod1964^1980Ho:>£.(3CAiunpublished).

(25)

S&^fl^a^i%&'re>5^lB5

Page.-23-

AcGomplishmetxtoof Urban, and Rural Dwellings ;r , ;

Year, .. '"""", "" Urban ; ' ; Rural ."■';' 17,435

. . . .-■ 22,153 14,291 .

27,502 '".. l.a^07=.

33,631 15s827

, :. 20,796

: . . 7*000 - . . ..' ./,. .;.-.

Source: 1958-1962 Annuaire Statistique de 1'Afrique 1961-1963/64>

Almost all of the urban^ dwellings^mentaQnea in the table were financed largely -by public 'sources. : ' ' /■. ■ • .- <">..£?*■■'* . .■ .: -. ■ ■ ■ :\.

It should also be noted that over 50 per cent .of the urban dwellings were of the type' called "Sconomique". :■ Tb,eae:-:ep^ in, ther neighbourhood of 1400 dinars'per dwelling. Less than 10 per cent.were of a more expensive type and the rest were lower: cost construction$■• ■:-1-. .-

Materials Demand and ;Supply -■.: ■. ■ ■

r Algeria':produces extensively most building materials (except for reinforcing iron and part Of-the timber needed));:-, cement^ brioks, tiles?

lime, plaster, paints and concrete elements* r, v The four cement factories in Algiers;j;0ran and Constantine have a capacity of 990,^000 tons. Demand during.:!964 and:1965 was a, little less than;700?000 tons a year. Domestic"-consumption.was 780,000 tons, with the residual being exported.

Imports of cement are not significant. Twelve established enterprises

produce some 50,000 tons of cement, products, (1964)• This includes 60 per

eenii:of the .capacity of 33,000 tons ;of asbestos cement production. (20,000 tohs:in'1964i-and"2i,000 tons in 1965)* = .

Nearly 500,000 square,metres.of: cement.tiies;are,produced in seven enterprises, established in the three main towns but consumption was less

■th-ant&B.e--aGtual^production in 1964-vWhile installed capacity is more than

'twice0 rthe: demand. ■■ ■■ -../..• ■ - . " . .■ . - .-.: ' ;'

The "red products"^ reached some 37,6, thousand tons in 1964 :.(54: per cent of '&F C3p^cityi:.pf: 735,00).. and .were .pro.du-oed^.in,fifty^fi:.ve enterprises, of.which many are of the craftsman type. ■; ■'■■- . : . =

(26)

Page • 24,

I)uringv ^.Qilast few:.yearsii:£,ten production, units,.have ceased to

operate because of not having the necessary markets to show profitability.

On the other hand a completely automatic large-scale unit began functioning

and is said to-be-operating with"high profitability

In 1965j a large production.unit9 making enamelled earthenware was

started at Gonsiantine? with a capacity of 37O?OQO square metres.

Iron and steel products still make up the largest part of the imported building materials? some six per cent of total national imports in I960- It can be said that the building1-- -Materials industry, is able to answer the needs of construction at present and for some years to come.

Projection of Construction and its.Components

.- A® .mentioned-earlier.,^ the .impact-of the oil jpro&uction-since I957 has affected the ratio of construction investment toJGI)FCF« ■ In trying to project the rate of construction in investments therefore, we shall take an estimated figure,:for the base year.1964 of 45 per: pent of GDFCF.

The projected rat"9> of- growth" of. construction is. ;.lower than.;the.-.rate.- of growth, of GDFCFrbut ■ &he greatwgrowth foreseen,-in inv$stmen.$i;.in manufacture has a high construction content.. On. balances one may:assume-that

construction investment's relative part3 in GDFCP is due to grow quite slowly in the .^e^t. few.aye.ars. ■^Thus.L¥e.i^y;:iassume..for 1970 a- ratio of 45 pe*1 cent3 for 1975 a- ratio of 50 per cent and" by 19S0 a ratio of 55 cent. The;.rate of growth* of construction value .added, during 1963-1970 is assumed to be.6.0°per-centvagainst;9*0 per-annum for the-ten years I97O-I98O. .^,,:^J.O : x-.:. :-.:'.. <:.■■■:

It.is^hard to-establi&h;,the relative parts of building or housing to public work^,-Qrl.e.ivi.lPengineering'^due to the lack of similar, past statistical; data:.. *Je.:.cto\only-; base/..our .estimates on the proportion of persons employed as given by various samples of censuses in 1964 ant^ ^- i960.

• The. total sainplexfigure;,G-£: employment in 1964s niade in 268 enterprises?

is 17j55O persons. Of these feome 63 per cent were engaged in public works while 37 per cent were engaged; d:& construction of buildings. .The sample made in I966 with 9*167 persons engaged in construction showed 67 per cent

in public works-and only 33 in:..buid'&ang.. . , . «. . ■

-■ ■ It should, be.,kept. dn. mindi-howey/ers-that oivil engineering, unlike building? is carried out by the bigger enterprises, which do;not escape the serious censuses. In contrast3 "building" is done by many small artisans, which do not-■always, appear in statistics.. Therefore? we shall

take lower figures; f.or^ the ^relative, part of civiT engineering and somewhat higher figures for the share of building.. ■ , ■ ■

(27)

c?Tffi^%fe5^^|j3£^i&g^^£^

Thus in trying to assess the extent"of public works against building activities we may safely use for 1964'the following proportions 50 per cent of investment for Pw and 50 per cent for building, tfith the advancement of. industrial.i^ati^Q.n. in the eighties the share of building will grow

Vhi^>fe^",.civil entlneering. ■ ■'■■■■ .- .■/■ ■ V ■■ ' .'*■:■;■•:>■,.'■■■

Employment . " ;; '- ■■ ■■:L"'?iZ'& '..-.-. '■:■•.& ■

|)e."rso"n 'engaged .was 'd> 239' US I in 1954 and-rosd ;-fco

fi would mean a;, rise ;in ,pi*6Mctivity;-of ;;3:,o;percent p , ^g asa- ijorma|-rate. 6f iAbr^ease and. disregarding the d©.cjin.e:'ija!".oonsirup'jbion;"'"of the eariy::'sixties-jWe-:::can arrive at ■the-, number., of

persons.'.engaged in construction as' presented -in the following tables- '.-;■.=.

Table

Year

iyo4 1970 I98O

A.7- ■ s Expected Labour

Projected va-lue added in construction

... ..(million VQ$)

,150.;, .-....,

■of growth ■/'-, ■ ■." .,'.■■ ■. .■

Force in Construction

..;; projected.value added, per person engaged

. -..:.- . (US$ per -.annum) :

1980

■ ■ ■ ■'-.■■. v 2400 ' ./;""'. ■...

. -/:i: ■ ■ . . 2660. ' ■

■■ ■ '%- p.a. " "■"'

...Projected' hUmter of . persons engaged in

construction9

, (ID'O'O)

75*6

■!""-". "* 132 ■"■'*:■".;:■...: ..

■■■■■ ■ ^-^j:.:--

(28)

Page, 26

CHAPTER IV . LIBIA

The drastic changes that have occurred:;in; the.'structure -of; the

economy with the beginning of the oil production inr^^/S^ resulted in

unusual relations between the various displays of national accounts ,

GDP has "jumped" from 91 million''L £ in 1963 to 334 and 4°8 in 1964

and in 1965"-fespectivelyo Moreover? the estimated, capital formation^.in . I964 was '33'3-toillioh.--1jSt, 'almost.^.-per cent .of.1 GDP which was: 930'million, US$* This -.figure whicii is: an extraordinaryz-high-one3;probably;.caused.-by

the :huge investments' in oil development =. This is also reflected in the : origin of GDP^-'Since 196'4- mining has l>Qen the source of more::than 5°

cent of GDP, .

Construction value added has remained at a normal level, fluctuating be.twe.en J}.B£.jfco...Jbl...P.£.$*W*- ...?*s rel,a^ive. ■ share, has been getting^slightly. ; lower as.G3)P- ris.e^.. (mainly due to oil production)! , - ^ r.

Table", LI Show's the GDP and its construction val^.a:added0.;;' . ...

Table-■■--Xil-:--;--G-I?P-3^-iLl-bya. and -its .Construction. .Value. Added...at-.jsurrent factor cost

1958 1959 I960 1961 1962 1963

TotalJQI^r ■{■ 52^1^1 61,070V0

"adde^L'Tn 1T8" ~Z«0 " 2 construction

Share of construction

in GDP$ 3=5 3*6 ? -f>- . 3O

Source: Historical data on the macro-economic structure and d^v-:

of the North African sub-region 1967*

a/ Estimates of the IDCA ^-^Tn^::.-:;."/z^

(29)

Page 27

■■' GDFCF" haV'beenI:'q.tiiie steady during the last three*.years, as can be: seen in "Tat>le'rL2i" '/"'* ; i'v'"1 " ■ .■■■<■ r^'u? $r. ■■ ■" ■

Table L2 ; GDFCFand its Construction Component in millroa USf current market

Year

19641965 1966

prices

GDFCF 333

367364

Source s Estimates .of the

Investment in

construction ''. 0: ■

98 "■'.-■■

119 :

177

ECA secretariat.

Cons truotXdrf Tri 1 percentage

29 32 48

The relative share of construction investment? which was unsually low in 1964 because of higher investment in oil production equipment, increased towards a more normal share in 1965 and 1966 and can be expected to grow higher from year to year until it will reach a .more conventional level.

Investments . :. .:

In 1963/64? extensive development in communications (roads? tele communication , harbours, airfields, and meteorological installation)? in public works (including water supply, power drainage, slaughterhouses)?

in the reconstruction of earthquake damage to 20,000 dwellings strengthened the impact of investment in construction. It amounted to 16.2 million

£» L? comparable to 10,2 million £ L in. 1964/65* Private capital contri buted almost half (49 per cent) of the total investment* The drop in investment from 1963/64 to I964/65 was due mainly to the lack of developed

projects and the shortage of qualified labour force for its implementation.

In facts it is not the lack of funds that restrains investments in construction but mainly the long process needed for the formation of qualified cadres of labourers as well as the creation of an efficient generation of private enterprises.

Building Materials Demand and Supply

Libya is still relying on imports of cement: in I965 almost half a million tons. (23-7 US$ worth of imports are needed for each square metre of building floor area).

At present, cement consumption of the country is met by import, but a cement factory in Benghazi is nearing completion. It will have a capacity of lOOyOOO tons a year. Another factory with the same capacity is planned at Horns. This will still leave a great part of the country's demand to be satisfied by imports (I5O-3OO thousand tons). Fifty-six enterprises were

(30)

Page 28"

producing, in ^964^some.14 million units of various cement products. That

same year neariy 4000 ions "of asbestos cement products'"'.toe're imported. There

is no local asbestos cement production. Only two 6f the above-mentioned enterprises are .working on a semi-industrial basis,.the rest, are of artisan typeV-*""-- ■■-■'■ ■■■----^■-".,.-:..-::.iJri ,....L;:..,, ,;. ,,;.; .,....,... ^^l^;. ■-."■ . ' .

Table L3 g. ■■■Cement ..Consumption..in Libya, in, 1000 tons ■ _.

■' -" ,.,-uJ ' 1950"' .. ■ .■'. :'" " 9

1952 , . (30)

1953 . ...,5l

1954 f; :. ^23

I-955, ■—-- " — -■- --. ■•■.-'(50.) 1956 :,;■■■ .'.:■ ■ ■ ■ ,:■;:; .. ■;■ ', 51

1957 (60)

1958. ■-. - ,,;•,,-., ... ..-:.. 7.4,.

1959 ;.■■- ■■: ■■ ,■:;■■ fi , ;- ■ 97 ■ 1960 ,-.'■■ -.: -, w . -. : ,,., ■ .■■ 141

1961 - :■ ■■:■;" ■■:, /; ; . 157:,

1962 241

1963 ■'■ := -..-,*...■: 288

1964 "'■■■ 329

:C .;.i ,:/y.,! = ;rs".--. ' 473,

(31)

TableL4«Pro.je&tionofconstructioncomponents»1964-198Q ~I9641970 US$■%of"US$%of mill....GDFCFmill*

.1975 %of mill;,GDFCF

'-1980■■:./■'.^ USS#of;■".-'AnnualCompound .mill.GDFCF:.rate:ofgrowth GDFCF.:;;■.'333':■. 5ha.r.eof'.■■.investmentin.....' construpfion(/o).■'■".•..29 Investment-.inconstruction,97': Shareofinvestmentin dwellings(fo)■11 Investmentindwellings■'":-3T .Shareofinvestmentinnojti— residentialbuildings-(fo)..'.6 Investmentinnon-residential buiBiings:.?20 Shar^.tof:.-investm,^nt'in- civil'1enginee;ri'ng":-(fo);12 Investmentinoivil;■■ engineering::■;<■■■40-.:

540 297 21 ■113 11

640 365 134 154

57 12 24

504 185 ■21.0

,6.0 122 73

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