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Statistical downscaling models of meteorological variables for climate change impact studies.

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Statistical downscaling models of meteorological variables for climate change impact studies.

Temporal transferability ;

uncertainties in future hydrological projections.

Matthieu Lafaysse1,3, Benoit Hingray1, Laurent Terray2, Abdelkader Mezghani1, Joël Gailhard4

1LTHE 2CERFACS 3Météo-France CNRM 4EDF-DTG

AMS conference 26th january 2011

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Typical methodology for impact studies

Introduction SDMs evaluations Future projections Conclusion 1/17

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Used SDMs

Model Method Predictors

ANALOG Analogs resampling Z700, Z1000 DSCLIM-10

Weather tyes + regional indices

PSL

DSCLIM-11 PSL, Ta

DSCLIM-21 Z850, Z500

D2GEN-10

Regressions + stochastic generator

PSL, u700, v700

D2GEN-22 PSL, u700, v700, HU700, q700

D2GEN-32 PSL, u700, v700, HU700, Fq700

ANALOG [EDF/LTHE, Obled et al., 2002, Gailhard, 2009]

DSCLIM [CERFACS, Boé et al., 2006, Pagé et al., 2011]

D2GEN [LTHE, Mezghani and Hingray, 2009]

Introduction SDMs evaluations Future projections Conclusion 2/17

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Outline

1 SDMs evaluations

Climatological evaluation Chronological evaluation

2 Future projections

Dispersion of meteorolgical changes Significance of meteorological changes Hydrological impacts

Introduction SDMs evaluations Future projections Conclusion 3/17

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Outline

1 SDMs evaluations

Climatological evaluation Chronological evaluation

2 Future projections

Dispersion of meteorolgical changes Significance of meteorological changes Hydrological impacts

Introduction SDMs evaluations Future projections Conclusion 4/17

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SDMs evaluation

Introduction SDMs evaluations Future projections Conclusion 5/17

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Climatological evaluation / transferability

Seasonal cycle of Durance basin precipitation.

(southern French Alps, 3580 km2, Elevation : 700-4100m.)

Mean 1959-1981 Mean 1981-2005

Introduction SDMs evaluations Future projections Conclusion 6/17

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Climatological evaluation / transferability

Seasonal cycle of Durance basin precipitation.

(southern French Alps, 3580 km2, Elevation : 700-4100m.)

Mean 1959-1981 Mean 1981-2005

Introduction SDMs evaluations Future projections Conclusion 6/17

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Climatological evaluation / transferability

Seasonal cycle of Durance basin precipitation.

(southern French Alps, 3580 km2, Elevation : 700-4100m.)

Mean 1959-1981 Mean 1981-2005

Introduction SDMs evaluations Future projections Conclusion 6/17

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Climatological evaluation / transferability

Seasonal cycle of Durance basin precipitation.

(southern French Alps, 3580 km2, Elevation : 700-4100m.)

Mean 1959-1981 Mean 1981-2005

Introduction SDMs evaluations Future projections Conclusion 6/17

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Climatological evaluation / transferability

Seasonal cycle of Durance basin precipitation.

(southern French Alps, 3580 km2, Elevation : 700-4100m.)

Mean 1959-1981 Mean 1981-2005

Introduction SDMs evaluations Future projections Conclusion 6/17

(12)

Climatological evaluation / transferability

Seasonal cycle of Durance basin precipitation.

(southern French Alps, 3580 km2, Elevation : 700-4100m.)

Mean 1959-1981 Mean 1981-2005

Introduction SDMs evaluations Future projections Conclusion 6/17

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Climatological evaluation / transferability

Seasonal cycle of Durance basin precipitation.

(southern French Alps, 3580 km2, Elevation : 700-4100m.)

Mean 1959-1981 Mean 1981-2005

Introduction SDMs evaluations Future projections Conclusion 6/17

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SDMs chronological evaluation

Winter (DJF) basin precipitation

Observed sequence ;100 scenarios ANALOG + median

Introduction SDMs evaluations Future projections Conclusion 7/17

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SDMs chronological evaluation

Winter (DJF) basin precipitation

Observed sequence ;100 scenarios DSCLIM-10 + median

Introduction SDMs evaluations Future projections Conclusion 7/17

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SDMs chronological evaluation

Winter (DJF) basin precipitation

Observed sequence ;100 scenarios DSCLIM-11 + median

Introduction SDMs evaluations Future projections Conclusion 7/17

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SDMs chronological evaluation

Winter (DJF) basin precipitation

Observed sequence ;100 scenarios DSCLIM-21 + median

Introduction SDMs evaluations Future projections Conclusion 7/17

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SDMs chronological evaluation

Winter (DJF) basin precipitation

Observed sequence ;100 scenarios D2GEN-10 + median

Introduction SDMs evaluations Future projections Conclusion 7/17

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SDMs chronological evaluation

Winter (DJF) basin precipitation

Observed sequence ;100 scenarios D2GEN-22 + median

Introduction SDMs evaluations Future projections Conclusion 7/17

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SDMs chronological evaluation

Winter (DJF) basin precipitation

Observed sequence ;100 scenarios D2GEN-32+ median

Introduction SDMs evaluations Future projections Conclusion 7/17

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Outline

1 SDMs evaluations

Climatological evaluation Chronological evaluation

2 Future projections

Dispersion of meteorolgical changes Significance of meteorological changes Hydrological impacts

Introduction SDMs evaluations Future projections Conclusion 8/17

(22)

Future projections (Durance basin)

Introduction SDMs evaluations Future projections Conclusion 9/17

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Winter precipitation changes (Durance basin)

1 line = Distribution of changes among 100 scenarios for 1 GCM and 1 SDM Changes between 2080-2099 and 1980-1999

Introduction SDMs evaluations Future projections Conclusion 10/17

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Annual temperature changes (Durance basin)

1 line = Distribution of changes among 100 scenarios for 1 GCM and 1 SDM Changes between 2080-2099 and 1980-1999

Introduction SDMs evaluations Future projections Conclusion 11/17

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Winter precipitation evolution (Durance basin)

12 GCM

+ 1 SDM (DSCLIM-10)

1 GCM (DMIEH5C-1) + 8 SDM

Introduction SDMs evaluations Future projections Conclusion 12/17

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Annual temperature evolution (Durance basin)

12 GCM

+ 1 SDM (DSCLIM-10)

1 GCM (DMIEH5C-1) + 8 SDM

Introduction SDMs evaluations Future projections Conclusion 13/17

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Future projections (Durance basin)

Introduction SDMs evaluations Future projections Conclusion 14/17

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Snow cover duration (days/year, Durance basin)

Introduction SDMs evaluations Future projections Conclusion 15/17

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Seasonal cycle of river discharges (Durance basin)

12 GCM + 1 SDM (DSCLIM-10)

1 GCM (DMIEH5C-1) + 8 SDM

Introduction SDMs evaluations Future projections Conclusion 16/17

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Conclusion

Evaluations

Transferability : data heterogeneities problem

Chronological evaluation : similar results between SDMs

Projections

Simulated changes are strongly model-dependant (GCMs + SDMs) and predictors-dependant

High dispersion of results

Robust hydrological signal due to snow cover decrease

Recommandation

Do account for downscaling-related uncertainty ! As important as GCMs uncertainty !

Introduction SDMs evaluations Future projections Conclusion 17/17

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Conclusion

Evaluations

Transferability : data heterogeneities problem

Chronological evaluation : similar results between SDMs

Projections

Simulated changes are strongly model-dependant (GCMs + SDMs) and predictors-dependant

High dispersion of results

Robust hydrological signal due to snow cover decrease

Recommandation

Do account for downscaling-related uncertainty ! As important as GCMs uncertainty !

Introduction SDMs evaluations Future projections Conclusion 17/17

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Conclusion

Evaluations

Transferability : data heterogeneities problem

Chronological evaluation : similar results between SDMs

Projections

Simulated changes are strongly model-dependant (GCMs + SDMs) and predictors-dependant

High dispersion of results

Robust hydrological signal due to snow cover decrease

Recommandation

Do account for downscaling-related uncertainty ! As important as GCMs uncertainty !

Introduction SDMs evaluations Future projections Conclusion 17/17

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References I

J. Boé, L. Terray, F. Habets, and E. Martin. A simple statistical downscaling scheme based on weather types and conditional resampling. J. Geophys. Res., 111, 2006.

J. Gailhard. Communication personnelle, EDF/DTG, 2009.

M. Lafaysse, B. Hingray, P. Etchevers, E. Martin, and C. Obled. Influence of spatial discretization, underground water storage and glacier melt on a physically-based hydrological model of the Upper Durance River basin. J. Hydrol., 403(1-2) : 116–129, JUN 6 2011. ISSN 0022-1694. doi :{10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.03.046}.

A. Mezghani and B. Hingray. A combined downscaling-disaggregation weather generator for stochastic generation of multisite hourly weather variables over complex terrain : Development and multi-scale validation for the Upper Rhone River basin. J. Hydrol., 377(3-4) :245–260, OCT 30 2009. ISSN 0022-1694. doi : {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.08.033}.

C. Obled, G. Bontron, and R. Garcon. Quantitative precipitation forecasts : a statistical adaptation of model outputs through an analogues sorting approach. Atmos. Res., 63(3-4) :303–324, AUG 2002. ISSN 0169-8095.

C. Pagé, E. Sanchez-Gomez, and L. Terray. DSCLIM : A software to provide climate projections using a weather typing based statistical downscaling methodology.

submitted to Environmental Modelling & Software, 2011.

Références 19/17

Références

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