HAL Id: hal-01692559
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01692559
Submitted on 12 Feb 2018HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access
archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci-entific research documents, whether they are pub-lished or not. The documents may come from teaching and research institutions in France or abroad, or from public or private research centers.
L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires publics ou privés.
New unabated coal is not compatible with keeping
global warming below 2°C Statement by leading climate
and energy scientists
Ogunalde Davidson, Peter C. Frumhoff, Niklas Höhne, Jean Charles
Hourcade, Mark Jaccard, Jiang Kejun, Mikiko Kainuma, Claudia Kemfert,
Emilio La Rovere, Felix Christian Matthes, et al.
To cite this version:
Ogunalde Davidson, Peter C. Frumhoff, Niklas Höhne, Jean Charles Hourcade, Mark Jaccard, et al.. New unabated coal is not compatible with keeping global warming below 2°C Statement by leading climate and energy scientists. 2013. �hal-01692559�
New unabated
1
coal is not
compatible with keeping
global warming below 2°C
Statement by leading climate and energy scientists
Prof. Ogunlade Davidson, University of Sierra Leone, Sierra Leone
Prof. Peter C. Frumhoff, Union of Concerned Scientists, USA
Dr. Niklas Höhne, Ecofys, Germany/The Netherlands
Dr. Jean-Charles Hourcade,
Prof. Mark Jaccard,
Dr. Jiang Kejun,
Commission, China
Dr. Mikiko Kainuma,
Prof. Claudia Kemfert,
Prof. Emilio La Rovere,
Dr. Felix Christian Matthes, y
Dr. Michael MacCracken,
Dr. Bert Metz,
Prof. José Moreira, Prof. William Moomaw,
Prof. Nebojsa Nakicenovic,
Dr. Shuzo Nishioka,
Prof. Keywan Riahi, Dr. Hans-Holger Rogner, Dr. Jayant Sathaye,
Prof. John Schellnhuber,
Dr. Robert N. Schock,
Prof. P.R. Shukla,
Prof. Ralph E.H. Sims,
Prof. Jeffrey Steinfeld,
Prof. Wim C. Turkenburg, Copernicus Institute on Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, The Netherlands
Dr. Tony Weir,
Prof. Harald Winkler,
counted as unabated coal, unless equipped with CCS.
1. U
nabated
coal
is
not
a
“
low
carbon
”
technology
2
2 capture and storage.
2
2e/kWh. Renewable energy technologies are emissions-free in operation,
and even over their full lifecycle result in much lower emissions. Typical values for lifecycle emissions for
2 2
incur emissions levels below those of unabated gas plants, and therefore be considered a low carbon technology2. The only way that coal plants can be part of a low carbon future is for all new coal plants
to include CCS from the outset.
2 needs to be stored compared with 2 could be a distinct advantage.
ELECTRICITY GENERATION TECHNOLOGIES POWERED BY RENEWABLE RESOURCES
Bi o p o w e r Ph oto vo lta ic s C o n c e n tr a tin g S o la r P o w e r Co a l Oi l N a tu ra l G a s G e ot h e rm a l E n e rg y Hy d ro p o w e r N u c le a r E n e rg y O c e a n E n e rg y W in d E n e rg y –1,250 –1,500 –1,000 750 250 –250 –750 –500 0 500 1,750 1,250 1,000 1,500 2,000 Li fe c yc le G re e n h o u se G a s E m is si o n s ( g C O2 e/ kW h)
ELECTRICITY GENERATION TECHNOLOGIES POWERED BY NON-RENEWABLE RESOURCES
*Avoided emissions, no removal of GHGs from the atmosphere * Maximum 75th Percentile Median 25th Percentile Minimum Single Estimates with CCS
2. a
voiding
dangeroUs
climate
change
reqUires
that
the
majority
of
fossil
fUel
reserves
need
to
stay
UndergroUnd
3harder to substitute.
4 GtCO 2
The largest portion of this very small carbon budget will be needed in sectors where there are no readily technologies with near zero emissions.
Building new unabated coal plants will extend the period during which coal continues to be converted into atmospheric CO2
2 persists in the atmosphere for
many hundreds of years.
2
4 The carbon budget for a 2o
2 2 2. Oil 982 GtCO2 2°C budget 1050 GtCO2 Gas 690 GtCO2 Coal 2,191 GtCO2
FOSSIL FUEL RESERVES
3. c
Urrent
trends
in
coal
Use
are
harboUring
catastrophic
climate
change
include extreme heat waves, declining global food stocks and a sea-level rise affecting hundreds of increasing risks for food production potentially leading to higher under and malnutrition rates; many dry regions becoming dryer, wet regions wetter; unprecedented heat waves in many regions, especially in the tropics; substantially exacerbated water scarcity in many regions; increased intensity of tropical cyclones; and irreversible loss of biodiversity” .
P rim a ry e n e rg y d e m a n d fo r c o a l ( th o u sa n d M tc e ) 11 10 9 8 7 6 4 5 3 2 1 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Medium-term coal market report
IEA scenarios:
6DS 4DS 2DS
4. t
o
keep
global
warming
to
less
than
2°c
above
pre
-
indUstrial
,
Use
of
Unabated
coal
has
to
go
down
in
absolUte
terms
from
now
on
There is no room in the remaining carbon budget for building new unabated coal power plants, even
temperature increase to less than 2°C above pre-industrial levels. All of these scenarios support the strong reductions in energy demand and early closure of existing coal plants there will be no room for
are simultaneously shut down before the end of their economic lifetime. For instance, the IEA “4 coal plants due to Essentially, this scenario assumes the early closure of more than two subcritical plants for each
of unabated coal. o EJ 0 2005 2030 2050 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wCCS Gas woCCS Oil Coal wCCS Coal woCCS Biomass wCCS Biomass woCCS I I II II III III GEA-efficiency GEA-mix GEA-supply I II III Coal woCCS set to decline by 80–96% by 2050
5. a
lternatives
are
available
and
affordable
The cost of electricity from renewable energy sources has decreased dramatically. In many places it is now competitive with fossil fuel-based electricity (see Figure cost of fossil fuel electricity will increase and that of renewable electricity will decrease further in the future (Frankfurt School UNEP Collaborating Centre and As a result, investments in new renewable energy-based electricity systems have increased enormously: of all the new electric power capacity that came on stream renewable sources (excluding UNEP Collaborating Centre When the external costs due to climate change and the health impacts of air pollution are considered, electricity from renewable energy sources is almost always
2012 2020 2012 2020 2012 2020 2012 2020 2012 2020 2012 2020 2012 2020 2012 2020 2012 2020 2012 2020 2012 2020 2012 2020 2012 2020 Wind onshore Wind offshore Solar PV-grid CSP PT (no storage) CSP PT (6 h storage) CSP ST (6-15 h storage) Biomass-stoker/ BFB/CFB Biomass-gasification Biomass-AD Biomass-co-firing Biomass non-OECD Hydropower Geothermal 2011 USD/kWh Range of fossil fuel power OECD
0.1
6. p
Ublic
financing
institUtions
and
regUlatory
agencies
are
reining
in
Unabated
coal
,
bUt
more
is
needed
be something every government considers for itself in terms of domestic developments and (for those strong carbon pricing signals that are credible in the long term, regulatory action banning the construction of unabated coal plants is also warranted to prevent further lock-in of future emissions. This would avoid large amounts of capital being invested in assets that will need to be abandoned to achieve a 2°C pathway.
Health Climate Change
RENEWABLE ENERGY (B) Solar Thermal (B) Geothermal (B) Wind 2.5 MW Offshore (B) Wind 1.5 MW Onshore (C) Wind Offshore (B) Hydro 300 kW (B) PV (2030) (B) PV (2000) (C) PV Southern Europe (C) Biomass CHP 6 MWel (D) Biomass Grate Boiler ESP 5 and 10 MW Fuel
0.01 0.1 1 10 100
COAL FIRED PLANTS
(A) Existing US Plants
(C) Hard Coal Postcom. CCS (C) Lignite Oxyfuel CCS
(A) Existing US Plants (C) Natural Gas Comb.C (C) Natural Gas Postcom.CCS
External costs (US Cent/kWh)
R
EFERENCES
New York. http://srren.ipcc-wg3.de/report/IPCC_SRREN_Full_Report.pdf
Angel Gurría, London, October 9. http://www.oecd.org/about/secretary-general/The-climate-challenge-achieving-zero-emissions.htm
Assessment -- Toward a Sustainable Future, (Johansson, T.B., Patwardhan, A., Nakicenovic, N.,
pathways_hires.pdf
warmer_world_must_be_avoided.pdf
