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DATABASES : T HE CASE OF THE ESTIMATION OF REGIONAL EXPORTS

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T HE USE OF INDIVIDUAL FIRM DATABASES TO RESPOND TO THE LIMITS OF SPATIALLY AGGREGATED

DATABASES : T HE CASE OF THE ESTIMATION OF REGIONAL EXPORTS

Moritz Lennert

Promoteur : Jean-Michel Decroly

Travail en vue de l'obtention du titre de Docteur en Sciences Département Géosciences, Environnement et Société

Faculté des Sciences

Université Libre de Bruxelles

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Table of Contents

A. WHAT'S IT ALL ABOUT ? THE INTERPRETATIVE

GUIDE TO THE LENNERT CHRONICLES...9

A.1. There's something missing: Current theoretical and practical contexts of regional development...13

A.1.1. Introduction...13

A.1.2. Show me what you have: The supply-side turn in regional policy...14

A.1.3. Choices: Space-blind or place-based...15

A.1.4. Blind on one eye: the neglected demand-side...17

A.1.5. Conclusions...19

A.2. Far out: The importance of geographical distance in contemporary geography... 21

A.2.1. Introduction...21

A.2.2. The gravity model in economic modeling of international trade : a success story...21

A.2.3. The gravity model in geography : distrust of physical explanations and laws ...22

A.2.4. The demise of geographic distance in economic geography...23

A.2.5. Travelling to other worlds : the importance of distance in related fields....25

A.2.6. A short note on the measure of distance...28

A.2.7. Conclusions...29

A.3. Big is the new black: hints of a future world of social physics and big data in economic geography ?...30

A.3.1. Introduction...30

A.3.2. How big is Big ?...31

A.3.3. A new paradigm for science ?...33

A.3.4. Is big data science really theory-free ?...34

A.3.5. Where to go from here ?...36

B. ORIGINAL PAPERS LEADING TO THE SPECIFIC

QUESTIONS DISCUSSED IN THIS THESIS...38

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B.1. The Territorial Futures of Europe: ‘Trends’, ’Competition’ or

’Cohesion’ (Paper 1)...41

B.1.1. Abstract...41

B.1.2. Introduction...42

B.1.3. Context and methodology...43

B.1.4. Hypotheses...44

B.1.5. Trend Scenarios...48

Storyline...48

The final image...50

B.1.6. Cohesion-Oriented Scenarios...52

Storyline...52

The final image...53

B.1.7. Competitivenes-Oriented Scenario...55

Storyline...55

The final image...56

B.1.8. Roll-back scenario...58

Introduction...58

Final image...58

Storyline...59

B.1.9. Comparing scenarios...60

B.1.10. Conclusion...62

B.2. ESPON 3.4.2 Territorial impacts of EU economic policies and location of economic activities - Executive Summary (Paper 2)...63

B.2.1. Introduction...63

B.2.2. Always changing and still the same: the economic geography of Europe...63

GDP growth...63

From regional production to regional disposable wealth...66

Sectoral structures of Europe's regions...66

B.2.3. Regions embedded in nation-states...72

B.2.4. Towards complementary indicators of regional economic regulation...73

B.2.5. But why ?: Elements of explanation of the state and evolution of the localisation of activities...74

It's the economy, stupid!: The shifting economic, technological and political context of regional development...74

Now you're talkin': Shifting theoretical perspectives on regional growth and competitiveness...74

Spinning the globe: factors of localisation of firms...75

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B.2.6. Oh no, don't press that button! : How macro-economic policies (might)

affect regional development...78

B.2.7. Small is beautiful: Regional Policies...82

B.2.8. So what is regional competitiveness? : a concluding concept discussion. . .83

B.2.9. Policy recommendations...85

At regional (micro-economic) level...85

At the general macro-economic level...87

B.3. Of bacteria and men: some reflections on modeling for regional policy (Paper 3)...91

B.3.1. The virtual petri dish...91

B.3.2. Identifying and feeding the bacteria...91

B.3.3. The difficulties of using the petri dish...92

B.3.4. From the petri dish to the future: the ESPON scenarios...93

B.3.5. Coming to the rescue of models...94

C. DEVELOPEMENT OF GIS METHODS...96

C.1. The use of exhaustive micro-data firm databases for economic geography : the issues of geocoding and usability in the case of the Amadeus database (Paper 4)...99

C.1.1. Abstract...99

C.1.2. Introduction...99

C.1.3. Micro-data in economic geography...100

The modifiable areal unit problem...100

New insights through micro-data...101

C.1.4. Data...102

C.1.5. Public Resources for Geocoding...103

The role of the INSPIRE directive...104

Overview of different forms of data dissemination...104

National idiosyncrasies in formats and contents of data...106

C.1.6. Geocoding...108

Introduction...108

Integrated web services...108

Address parsing...109

Techniques used for geocoding...110

C.1.7. Usability...112

Exhaustivity...112

The use of headquarters instead of establishments...115

Conclusions on the usability of the Amadeus database...117

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C.1.8. Some maps as results...118

C.1.9. Conclusions...126

C.2. Building applications with FOSS4G bricks: two examples of the use of GRASS GIS modules as a high-level “language” for the analyses of continuous space data in economic geography (Paper 5)...127

C.2.1. Abstract...127

C.2.2. Introduction...127

C.2.3. The tools...129

A modular GIS for efficient raster processing and projection handling...129

The glue: Python...130

The GRASS Python scripting library...130

The accelerator: Simple parallel processing using Python’s multiprocessing module. 130 C.2.4. Example 1: Elaboration of new indicators for flexible-scale estimation of exports...131

Continuous space analysis in economic geography...131

Estimation of regional exports...132

Huff-like indicator...132

The modified Marcon-Puech indicator...133

Translating these equations into GRASS GIS “language”...134

Huff-like indicator...135

The modified Marcon-Puech indicator...135

Parallelization of the processes...136

C.2.5. Example 2: Calculating neighborhood matrices of raster objects...136

C.2.6. Conclusion...138

C.2.7. Annexe...139

D. BUILDING THE MODEL...140

D.1. Approaching regional openness through measures of specialization and spatial market shares : experimentation with micro-data on enterprises (Paper 6)...144

D.1.1. Abstract...144

D.1.2. Introduction...144

D.1.3. Huff-like model...144

D.1.4. M function-based model...146

D.1.5. Data and tools...147

D.1.6. Results...147

D.1.7. Conclusions...148

D.2. From point to point: estimating regional exports from the bottom-

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D.2.1. Abstract...150

D.2.2. Acknowledgements...150

D.2.3. Introduction...150

D.2.4. Literature review...151

Supply-side focus in EU regional policy...151

On the estimation of intra-national trade...152

Conclusion...154

D.2.5. A point-based bottom-up gravity model...155

The gravity equation...157

Determining the input data...157

Stoppage criterion...160

Transferability and possible improvements of the model depending on data availability ...160

Practical implementation of the model...161

D.2.6. Concrete application of the model on Belgian firm data...161

Firm data...161

Input-output tables...163

Resolution of analysis, distance measure and spatial aggregation level...163

Validation...163

Geography of trade...166

D.2.7. Discussion...173

D.2.8. Conclusions and perspectives...173

D.3. Who's the customer ? How the supply-side turn of regional policy neglects the spatial production-consumption patterns of regional economic activity (Paper 8)...175

D.3.1. Abstract...175

D.3.2. Introduction...175

D.3.3. Literature review...176

All roads lead back to economic base theory...176

All roads ?...178

Whose demand for whose production ?...178

Difficulties of estimation...179

D.3.4. A new model for estimating regional export share...181

D.3.5. Who consumes the regional economic production ?...182

D.3.6. Exploring the impact of trade on economic and social performances...196

Economic performance...196

Social performance...197

D.3.7. Conclusions...199

E. CONCLUSIONS: ACKNOWLEDGING THE LIMITS AND

IMAGINING THE FUTURE...201

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E.1. New Data and New Tools...202

E.2. The Gravity Model for Estimating Regional Exports...204

E.3. Regional Export Markets and their Relevance for Policy...206

F. COMBINED REFERENCES OF ALL PAPERS...208

G. ANNEXES... 230

G.1. List of Publications by the Author...231

G.1.1. Contributions to collective works...231

G.1.2. Peer-reviewed journal articles...231

G.1.3. Papers published in national and international conferences or symposium proceedings...234

G.1.4. Research reports, reading notes, book reviews, letters to the editor, working papers...235

G.2. The Author's Software Developments in GRASS GIS...236

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