World Business Council for Sustainable Development. WBCSD Energy Efficiency in Buildings Project. UN Geneva 22 Oct 2008

WBCSD

Energy Efficiency in Buildings Project UN Geneva 22 Oct 2008

World Bu sin ess Cou n cil for Su st ai n ab l e D evel o p m en t

WBCSD: An overview

ƒ Coalition of 200+ companies represented by CEOs

ƒ Stock market value: 8,000 BUSD

ƒ Supplies products and services to half of the world’s population every day

ƒ Regional Network with local organizations in 60 countries

3

What is the WBCSD?

The Context

The Unsustainable Development

How will future society look like with human development within planet’s ecological limits?

Human Development Index (HDI)

Ecological Footprint (Global Hectares per Person)

IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2007

• Global energy system is on an increasingly unsustainable path

• China and India are transforming the global energy system by sheer size

• Next 10 years are critical

– The pace of capacity additions will be most rapid

– Technology will be “locked-in” for decades – Growing tightness in oil & gas markets

10 15 20 25 30 35

2005 2010 2015

Gt of CO 2

Reference Scenario

The IEA 450ppm stabilization scenario? Where are we?

450ppm stabilization scenario

The context

Conclusion:

“Houston, we have a problem”

(Apollo 13)

Oil Biomass Gas Coal Nuclear Renewables

Primary Energy

Liquids

Direct combustion Industry and

Manufacturing

Mobility

Final Energy

Consumer Choices

Energy

Energy Energy

Buildings Power

Generation

Access to energy is key for society

14 dedicated companies

EEB’s 2050 VISION

A world where buildings consume zero net energy

A world where buildings consume zero net energy

ƒ Low awareness of environmental impacts

& value of being green. Energy efficiency is not an investment criteria.

ƒ Lifestyles are not focused on energy efficiency

ƒ Lack of know-how and experience for green construction

ƒ Lack of financial instruments to reward

Key findings of the progress report

Energy Efficiency in Buildings

The three levers to change

Policy as a supportive framework

13

How to do it ?

ƒ Develop scenarios in China, India, EU, USA, Japan, Brazil

ƒ Create a simulation model

ƒ Develop bottom-up policy instruments

ƒ Collect relevant data around the world

ƒ Test policy packages

BUILDINGS HAVE GLOBAL IMPACT

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

2005 Baseline 2050 Best Adopted

Buildings (38%)

Transport (26%)

Industry (33%) Other (3%)

Potential Energy Savings in Buildings is 25% of Global Energy Usage.

Transport Energy Totals just 26% of Global Energy Usage.

Reference Residential Segment (Cold Climate)

65% Energy Reduction Possible

Building Energy Use, KWh/Bldg

Global Final Energy Use (79,000 TWh)

2005 Baseline

2050 Best Adopted HVAC

Water Heating Light & Appliance Cooking

(Potential Savings of More than 3200 700 MW Power Plants)

BUILDING SECTOR CHALLENGES

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Pre 1975 1975 - 1981 1982 - 1989 1990 to present

Year of Construction

% of Current Stock

French Residential Building Stock

Compliance & Enforcement Slow Stock Turnover

Split Incentives and Inefficient Decision Models

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Japan (res)

China US Japan

(com)

Taiwan

% Energy Code Compliance*

INPUT CALCULATION OUTPUT

Decision &

Diffusion Model (time effect) eQuest/DOE2 (Bldg Energy)

CO2 Generation Stock Energy Usage

Cost to Owners Cost to Gov’t Construction

Options User Behaviors Decision Variables Exogenous Variables

Strategies (Policies)

Data on energy usage and decision criteria, combined withpolicy actions

that may affect stakeholder decisions

Calculations determine preferred options and how

they would be adopted

Output allows comparison of overall impact and cost incurred by critical stakeholders from 2005

to 2050 time horizon

EEB MODEL FLOW

Phase 1 Submarkets Single Family Home – France Single Family Home – US (SE) Single Family Home – Japan (Kansai) Multi-Family Home – China (Shanghai)

Office – US (cold climate) Retail - EU

Office – Japan (Kanto)

Phase 2 Submarkets

Multi-Family Home – China (Beijing) Multi-Family Home – India

Multi-Family Home – Sweden Office – Brazil

Model relies on a submarket approach

Submarkets are defined by building end use and location (climate) Project is focused on thorough

evaluation of a limited submarket set

Reference building(s) used to characterize building

SUBMARKET APPROACH

# of zero net energy buildings

Time

CRISIS Scenario

0 100 %

Transformation

Little by little

NEED TO ACT NOW

A transformation scenario is difficult to realize

It has broad implications on lifestyle & freedom

It puts people and institutions outside their comfort zone

There is a strong natural tendency to slip to “business- as - usual “ or “ incremental” in our thinking about buildings, behavior, finance, holistic approach and policy

development

SCENARIO CONCLUSIONS

TODAY’S PLANNED POLICIES

Don’t bring about market adoption of more effective options

Heating Lighting Cooking Hot Water Appliances Plug Loads

No incentives

Unaided adoption

< 5yr payback horizon

Incentives

< 5yr payback horizon

CO₂

CONSERVATION AND BEHAVIOR

Conservation improvements can be attained through basic behavior changes

Technology solutions need to address occupant comfort

& usability

Smart metering and real-time feed back can also improve behavior.

Behavior Opportunities:

Internal load management Thermostat setback

Thermostat setpoints Hot water use habits

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

sign Condition

AGGRESSIVE POLICY

Direct policy actions with increased transparency

Effect of incentives on A & B and disincentives on E-G

Ref: Residential, Cold climate in low carbon grid (FR)

Heating Lighting Cooking Hot Water Appliances Plug Loads

Electricity Natural Gas Oil

LPG Solar PV CO₂

Muito obrigado

More on EEB:

www.wbcsd.org Or my blog:

www.eeb-blog.org