Article
Reference
Levels of mercury in the sediments of some Swiss lakes including Lake Geneva and the Rhone river
VERNET, Jean-Pierre, THOMAS, Richard Lynn
Abstract
Les sédiments récoltés dans les lacs de Bienne, Brienz, Joux, Tuma, Saoseo, Bodan, Léman et dans le Rhône ont été analysés pour déterminer leur teneur en Hg/total. A l'exception du lac de Brienz tous les lacs présentent une contamination mercurielle due soit à la pollution atmosphérique soit à des sources industrielles ou urbaines. La teneur en mercure provenant de l'environnement géologique a été estimée comme étant au maximum de 200 ppb. Les lacs de Tuma et de Saoseo situés sur le versant sud des Alpes sont probablement pollués par les émissions dans l'atmosphère des complexes industriels de l'Italie du Nord, les vents prédominants venant de l'ouest et du sud-ouest. Le profil du Rhône montre des concentrations en mercure dans les canaux X, Y et Z et dans un affluent, la Drance, qui sont les sources industrielles de la contamination par le mercure du Rhône et du Léman. La répétition des campagnes d'échantillonnage entre 1964 et 1971 montre un apport important de mercure d'origine industrielle entre 1965 et 1967 et dès cette date un accroissement régulier des teneurs jusqu'en 1971.
VERNET, Jean-Pierre, THOMAS, Richard Lynn. Levels of mercury in the sediments of some Swiss lakes including Lake Geneva and the Rhone river. Eclogae Geologicae Helvetiae, 1972, vol. 65, no. 2, p. 293-306
DOI : 10.5169/seals-164093
Available at:
http://archive-ouverte.unige.ch/unige:145080
Disclaimer: layout of this document may differ from the published version.
1 / 1
(FORJDH JHRO +HOY 9RO 3DJHV ILJXUHV LQDQGWDEOHVWKHWH[W %DVOH$XJ
/HYHOV RI 0HUFXU\ LQ WKH 6HGLPHQWV RI VRPH 6ZLVV /DNHV
,QFOXGLQJ /DNH *HQHYD DQG WKH 5KRQH 5LYHU
%\ -HDQ3LHUUH 9HUQHW DQG
5LFKDUG
/ 7KRPDV$%675$&7
6HGLPHQW VDPSOHV WDNHQ IURP /DNHV %LHQQH %ULHQ] -RX[ 7XPD 6DRVHR %RGDQ DQG *HQHYD KDYH EHHQDQDO\VHG IRU WRWDO PHUFXU\ 2WKHU WKDQ /DNH %ULHQ] DOO RIWKH ODNHVVKRZ VRPH HYLGHQFHRI
PHUFXU\ FRQWDPLQDWLRQ IURP DWPRVSKHULF RU LQGXVWULDOPXQLFLSDO VRXUFHV ZLWK OHYHOV RI PHUFXU\
DERYH WKH DFFHSWHG EDFNJURXQG OHYHO RI SSE 7KH PRVW VRXWK HDVWHUO\ ODNHV 7XPDDQG 6DRVHR VKRZ WKH HIIHFWV RIWKH SUHFLSLWDWLRQ RIDWPRVSKHULF PHUFXU\ GHULYHG IURP WKH LQGXVWULDO FRPSOH[HV
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
5e680e
/HV VpGLPHQWV UpFROWpV GDQV OHV ODFV GH %LHQQH %ULHQ] -RX[ 7XPD 6DRVHR %RGDQ /pPDQ HW GDQV OH 5K{QH RQW pWp DQDO\VpV SRXU GpWHUPLQHU OHXU WHQHXU HQ +JWRWDO $ OH[FHSWLRQ GX ODF GH
%ULHQ] WRXV OHV ODFV SUpVHQWHQW XQH FRQWDPLQDWLRQ PHUFXULHOOHGXH VRLW j OD SROOXWLRQ DWPRVSKpULTXH VRLW j GHV VRXUFHV LQGXVWULHOOHV RX XUEDLQHV /D WHQHXU HQ PHUFXUH SURYHQDQW GH OHQYLURQQHPHQW JpRORJLTXH D pWp HVWLPpH FRPPH pWDQW DX PD[LPXP GH SSE /HV ODFV GH 7XPD HW GH 6DRVHR VLWXpVVXU OH YHUVDQW VXGGHV$OSHV VRQW SUREDEOHPHQW SROOXpV SDUOHVpPLVVLRQV GDQVODWPRVSKqUHGHV FRPSOH[HV LQGXVWULHOV GH O,WDOLH GX 1RUG OHV YHQWV SUpGRPLQDQWV YHQDQW GH ORXHVW HW GX VXGRXHVW /H SURILO GX 5K{QH PRQWUH GHV FRQFHQWUDWLRQV HQ PHUFXUH GDQV OHV FDQDX[ ; < HW = HW GDQV XQ DIIOXHQW OD 'UDQFH TXL VRQW OHV VRXUFHV LQGXVWULHOOHV GH ODFRQWDPLQDWLRQ SDU OH PHUFXUH GX 5K{QH HW GX /pPDQ
/D UpSpWLWLRQ GHVFDPSDJQHV GpFKDQWLOORQQDJH HQWUH HW PRQWUH XQ DSSRUW LPSRUWDQW
GH PHUFXUH GRULJLQH LQGXVWULHOOH HQWUH HW HW GqV FHWWH GDWH XQ DFFURLVVHPHQW UpJXOLHU GHV WHQHXUVMXVTXHQ
,QWURGXFWLRQ
7KH OHYHOV
RI
PHUFXU\ FRQFHQWUDWLRQV UHFRUGHG LQ ZLOGOLIH IURP PDQ\ SDUWVRI
WKH ZRUOG GXULQJ WKH SDVW GHFDGH KDYH GHPRQVWUDWHG WKH ZLGH VFDOH HIIHFWVRI
PHUFXU\FRQWDPLQDWLRQ LQ WKH HQYLURQPHQW
,QVWLWXWHRI*HRORJ\ 8QLYHUVLW\ RI*HQHYD *(2/(0
&DQDGD &HQWUH IRU ,QODQG :DWHUV %XUOLQJWRQ 2QWDULR
7KH LQGXVWULDO GLVFKDUJH
RI
PHUFXU\ LQ VRPH UHVWULFWHG DTXDWLFV\VWHPV KDV UHVXOWHG LQ HOHYDWHG OHYHOVRI
PHUFXU\ LQ WKH IRRG FKDLQ GHVWUR\LQJWKHXWLOLW\ RI
WKH V\VWHP DVDIRRG UHVRXUFH IRU KXPDQ FRQVXPSWLRQ ,Q WZR ZHOO GRFXPHQWHG LQVWDQFHV WKH
XWLOL]DWLRQ
RI
FRQWDPLQDWHG VHD IRRG KDV UHVXOWHG LQ WKH GLUHFW SRLVRQLQJRI
ORFDO LQKDELWDQWV$W
0LQLPDWD LQ -DSDQ EHWZHHQ DQG SHUVRQV ZHUH SRLVRQHG UHVXOWLQJ LQ GHDWKV 7KHVH FDVHV LQFOXGHG LQIDQWV VXIIHULQJ IURP FRQJHQLWDO SRLVRQLQJ ERUQ WR PRWKHUV VKRZLQJ QR V\PSWRPVRI
PHUFXU\ LQWR[LFDWLRQ$W
1LLJDWD -DSDQ FDVHVRI
PHUFXU\ SRLVRQLQJ ZLWK GHDWKV ZHUH UHFRUGHG LQ,Q ERWK
RI
WKHVH -DSDQHVH HSLGHPLFV WKH FKHPLFDO LQGXVWULHV UHVSRQVLEOH UHOHDVHG RUJDQLF PHWK\OPHUFXU\ WRJHWKHU ZLWK PHUFXULF FKORULGH GXULQJ WKH PDQXIDFWXUHRI
YLQ\O FKORULGH DQG DFHWDOGHK\GH E\ PHDQVRI
WKH FDWDO\WLF FRQYHUVLRQRI
DFHW\OHQH 7KLV UHVXOWHG LQ WKH DFFXPXODWLRQRI
PHWK\OPHUFXU\ LQ VKHOOILVK DQG ILVK VXEVHTXHQWO\FRQVXPHG E\ WKH ORFDO SRSXODWLRQV
8S XQWLO WKH ODWH V
LW
ZDV JHQHUDOO\ DFFHSWHG WKDW PHUFXU\ FRPSRXQGVLQWURGXFHG WR WKH DTXDWLF HQYLURQPHQW ZRXOG EH GLOXWHG DQG DVVLPLODWHG E\ WKH HQYLURQPHQW
ZLWK QR GHOHWHULRXV HIIHFWV
)XMLNL
GXULQJ LQYHVWLJDWLRQV LQ 0LQLPDWD%D\ SRVWXODWHG D ELRORJLFDO FRQYHUVLRQ
RI
PHUFXU\ FRPSRXQGV WR WKH KLJKO\ WR[LF PHWK\OPHUFXU\ WR DFFRXQW IRU WKH KLJK OHYHOVRI
WKLRPHWK\OPHUFXU\ LQ WKH VKHOOILVKRI
WKH ED\ 7KLV FRQFHSW ZDV GLVFDUGHG ZKHQLW
ZDV GLVFRYHUHG WKDW WKH FKHPLFDO SODQW UHVSRQVLEOH ZDV GLVFKDUJLQJ PHWK\OPHUFXU\,QYHVWLJDWLRQV
RI
PHUFXU\ FRQFHQWUDWLRQV LQ ILVK LQ 6ZHGHQ VHH/RIU|WK
UHYHDOHG KLJK OHYHOV
RI
PHWK\OPHUFXU\ LQ ILVK SRWHQWLDO\ KD]DUGRXVIRU
KXPDQ FRQVXPSWLRQ LQ UHJLRQV ZKHUH QR LQWURGXFWLRQRI
PHWK\OPHUFXU\ KDG RFFXUUHG 7KLV OHG -HQVRQ DQG-HUQDO|Y
DQG WR WKH LPSRUWDQW GLVFRYHU\ WKDW PLFURELDO FRQYHUVLRQRI
LQRUJDQLF PHUFXU\ WR KLJKO\ WR[LF PHWK\OPHUFXU\ RFFXUV LQ ERWWRP VHGLPHQWV DQG LV WUDQVIHUUHG WR WKH DTXDWLF IRRG FKDLQ)URP WKH VXEVHTXHQW ZRUN
RI -HUQDO|Y
DQG :RRG DQG :RRG HW DO DQG D JUHDW GHDO LV QRZ NQRZQ DERXW WKH PHFKDQLVP DQG RQ WKH FRQWUROOLQJ SDUDPHWHUVRI
WKH PLFURELRORJLFDO PHWK\ODWLRQRI
PHUFXU\ 7KLV NQRZOHGJH LV VXPPDUL]HG YHU\ EULHIO\ DV IROORZV1R PDWWHU ZKDW FRPSRXQG
RI
PHUFXU\ LV LQWURGXFHG WR WKH DTXHRXV HQYLURQPHQWLW
ZLOO GHJUDGH DQG R[LGLVH WR PHUFXULF LRQ +J DQG ZLOO EH DGVRUEHG E\QHJDWLYHO\FKDUJHG ILQH JUDLQHG LQRUJDQLFRURUJDQLF SDUWLFOHV HJ )H0QK\GUR[LGHV FOD\V SODQNWRQ ,Q WKLV PDQQHU WKH PHUFXU\ LV WUDQVSRUWHG GLVSHUVHG DQG GHSRVLWHG
LQ WKH ZDWHU V\VWHP
7KH ERWWRP VHGLPHQWV VHUYH DV D VWRUH PDNLQJ PHUFXU\ DYDLODEOH IRU PLFURELDO FRQYHUVLRQ WR PHWK\OPHUFXU\ IRU DQ H[WHQGHG SHULRG
RI
WLPH 7KH UDWHRI
PHWK\ODWLRQLVHVWLPDWHG E\
-HUQDO|Y
WR EH RQH WR WHQ SHUFHQW SHU DQQXP0HUFXU\ LV QRW DYDLODEOH IRU PHWK\ODWLRQ ZKHQ ERXQG DV WKH VXOSKLGH ZLWKRXW XQGHUJRLQJ D
SULRU
R[LGDWLRQ VWHS
-HUQDO|Y
HVWLPDWHG WKDW PHWK\ODWLRQ IURP ERWWRP VHGLPHQWV LV VLJQLILFDQWZKHQ WKH PHUFXU\ FRQFHQWUDWLRQ LQ WKH VHGLPHQW H[FHHGV RQH SSP 7KLV WKUHVKROG YDOXH LV DUELWDU\ DQG GHSHQGHQW RQ EDFWHULDO DFWLYLW\ :RRG SHUVRQDO FRPPXQLFDWLRQ EHOLHYHV WKDW XQGHU KLJK EDFWHULDO DFWLYLW\ YDOXHV DV ORZ DV SSP LQ ERWWRP VHGLPHQWV PD\ EHFRPH GHOHWHULRXV WR WKH IRRG FKDLQ
+J /HYHOV LQ6HGLPHQWV RI 6ZLVV /DNHV
7KH EDFWHULDO PHWK\ODWLRQ RI PHUFXU\ LV EURXJKW DERXW E\ WKH WUDQVIHU
RI
PHWK\O &+ JURXSV ZLWK PHWK\OFREDODPLQ PHWK\OYLWDPLQ % VHUYLQJ DV WKH PHWK\O GRQRU
0RQR RU GLPHWK\OPHUFXU\ PD\ EH IRUPHG GHSHQGHQW RQ WKH S+ $ONDOLQH FRQGLWLRQV IDYRXU WKH IRUPDWLRQ
RI
GLPHWK\OPHUFXU\ &+V+J &+ ZLWK PRQR PHWK\OPHUFXU\ &+V+J IRUPLQJ XQGHU DFLGLF FRQGLWLRQV0HWK\OFREDODPLQ LV D FRPPRQ FRHQ]\PH LQ EDFWHULD RFFXUULQJ LQ VHGLPHQWV XQGHU ERWK DHURELF DQG DQDHURELF FRQGLWLRQV 7KH DHURELF FKHPLFDO PHWK\ODWLRQ
RI
PHUFXULF LRQ +J SURFHHGV E\ WKHHOHFWURSKLOLF DWWDFN E\ +J RQ PHWK\OFREDODPLQ +J LV D SUHUHTXLVLWH IRU WKH UHDFWLRQ ZKLFK LV LQKLELWHG E\ WKH UHGXFWLRQ
RI
+J WR+J RU +JF $QDHURELF PHWK\ODWLRQ LV DQ HQ]\PDWLF SURFHVV DQG RFFXUV RQO\ LQ WKH
SUHVHQFH
RI
QDWLYH PHUFXU\ +J 0HUFXURXV LRQ +J; LV QHYHU PHWK\ODWHG'LPHWK\OPHUFXU\ LV YRODWLOH %3 & DQG LV UDSLGO\ ORVW WR WKH DWPRVSKHUH ZKHUH LW GHJUDGHV WR +J DQG LV SUHFLSLWDWHG ZLWK UDLQ RUVQRZ +LJKHU FRQFHQWUDWLRQV RI PHUFXU\ DUH WKXV REVHUYHG LQ ILVK H[SRVHG WR PRQRPHWK\OPHUFXU\ WKDQ ZKHQ H[SRVHG WR GLPHWK\OPHUFXU\
7KH UDWH
RI
PHWK\ODWLRQ LV D GLUHFW IXQFWLRQRI
WKH DYDLODELOLW\RI
PHWK\OFREDODPLQDQG KHQFH LV UHODWHG WR WKH EDFWHULDO SRSXODWLRQ DQG DFWLYLW\ 6LQFH WKH EDFWHULDO SRSXODWLRQ DQG DFWLYLW\ LV D IXQFWLRQ
RI
WKH DYDLODELOLW\RI
RUJDQLF QXWULHQW WR WKH VHGLPHQW WKHQ ODNH SURGXFWLYLW\ LQ WHUPVRI
SODQNWRQ JURZWK LV D FRQWUROOLQJ IDFWRU$ HXWURSKLF ODNH V\VWHP ZLOO WKXV KDYH DQ DFFHOHUDWHG PHWK\ODWLRQ UDWH FRPSDUHG WR D ODNH
RI
ORZHU WURSKLF OHYHO,W
WKXV IROORZV WKDW ORZHU OHYHOVRI
PHUFXU\ FRQFHQWUDWLRQLQ VHGLPHQW PD\ EHFRPH GHOHWHULRXV WR WKH ODNH ELRWD DW WKH KLJKHU WURSKLFOHYHOV 7KLV
LV LQGHHG D SRWHQW DUJXPHQW IRU PDLQWDLQLQJ KLJK ZDWHU TXDOLW\ VWDQGDUGV LQ ODNH EDVLQV XWLOL]HG E\ PDQ LQ ZKLFK HOHYDWHG OHYHOV
RI
VHGLPHQW ERXQG PHUFXU\ DUH NQRZQ WR H[LVW$Q XQGHUVWDQGLQJ
RI
WKH UHODWLRQVKLSV RXWOLQHG DERYH DW D OHYHO VXIILFLHQW IRU WKH SUHGLFWLYH PRGHOOLQJRI
ODNH V\VWHPV LV GHSHQGDQW RQ WKH DTXLVLWLRQRI
DQ DGHTXDWH GDWD EDVH 6XFK GDWD VKRXOG LQFOXGH VHGLPHQW PHUFXU\ FRQFHQWUDWLRQV PHUFXU\FRQFHQWUDWLRQV LQ WKH IRRG FKDLQ DQG DQ DGHTXDWH GHVFULSWLRQ
RI
WKH WURSKLF OHYHO LQ GLVFUHHW ODFXVWULQH VLWXDWLRQV7KH SUHVHQW SDSHU LV LQWHQGHG WR SURYLGH EDVH OHYHO GDWD RQ PHUFXU\ FRQFHQWUDWLRQV
LQ WKH VHGLPHQWV
RI
D QXPEHURI
6ZLVV ODNHV ZKLFK PD\ VXEVHTXHQWO\ EH UHODWHG WR ILVK GDWD FXUUHQWO\ EHLQJ FRPSLOHG DW WKH (LGJ $QVWDOW IU :DVVHUYHUVRUJXQJ$EZDVVHUUHLQLJXQJ XQG *HZlVVHUVFKXW] UHVHDUFK LQVWLWXWH LQ =ULFK
0HWKRGV
6DPSOHV ZHUH FROOHFWHG XVLQJ D FODP W\SH ERWWRP VHGLPHQW VDPSOHU 6DPSOHV LQ /DNH *HQHYD ZHUH FROOHFWHG LQ DQG ZKHUHDV VDPSOHV
RI
WKH 5KRQH 5LYHU DQG RWKHU 6ZLVV ODNH VHGLPHQWV ZHUH WDNHQ LQ 6XEVDPSOHV IRU PHUFXU\ DQDO\VLV ZHUH FDUHIXOO\ UHPRYHG IURP WKH WRS PPRI
VHGLPHQW DQG ZHW VLHYHG ZLWK GLVWLOOHG ZDWHUWR SDVV D 7\OHU PHVK ,£MOQ\ORQ VFUHHQ 7KH OHVV WKDQ PHVK IUDFWLRQ ZDV RYHQ GULHG DW & OLJKWO\ JURXQG LQ DQ DJDWH SHVWOH DQG PRUWDU DQG DQDO\VHG IRU PHUFXU\ E\ WKH%DUULQJHU
PHWKRG 7KH GHWHUPLQDWLRQV ZHUH FDUULHG RXW XVLQJ D WRWDO FRPEXVWLRQ SURFHGXUH WR YRODWDOL]H WKH PHUFXU\ LQWR D SDWHQWHG LQWHUIHUHQFH IUHH VSHFWURPHWHU 7KH SUHFLVLRQ
RI
WKH DQDO\WLFDO PHWKRG LV JLYHQ E\%DUULQ JHU
DV SHUFHQW RU EHWWHU DW PHUFXU\ FRQFHQWUDWLRQV LQ H[FHVVRI
SSE DQG SHUFHQW DW FRQFHQWUDWLRQV EHORZ SSE $V DQ HVWLPDWHRI
WKH DFFXUDF\ RI WKH PHWKRG GXSOLFDWH VDPSOHV ZHUH VHQW WR WKH %XUHDX GHV 5HFKHUFKHVJpRORJLTXHV HW PLQLqUHV
%5*0
2UOpDQV )UDQFH IRU PHUFXU\ GHWHUPLQDWLRQ E\ DFLG H[WUDFWLRQ DQG IODPHOHVV DWRPLF DEVRUSWLRQ%5*0
LV DQ DFWLYH PHPEHURI
*HROHP ZKLFK LV DQ LQWHUQDWLRQDO RUJDQL]DWLRQ
IRU
HQYLURQPHQWDO JHRORJLFDO VWXGLHV RQ /DNH *HQHYD /pPDQ 7KH UHVXOWVRI
WKH GXSOLFDWH DQDO\VHV DUH JLYHQ LQ 7DEOH DQG VKRZ JHQHUDOO\ JRRG DJUHHPHQW EHWZHHQ WKH WZR PHWKRGV ,W LV OLNHO\ WKDW VRPHRI
WKH YDULDWLRQ LV GXH WR D ODFNRI
KRPRJHQHLW\ LQ WKH VHGLPHQW VDPSOHV 7KH DYHUDJH YDOXHVIRU
WKH VDPSOHV7DEOH DUH KRZHYHU LQ H[FHOOHQW DJUHHPHQWZLWKD YDULDWLRQRI
SHUFHQW6DPSOH %DUULQJHU 5HVHDUFK %5*0 2UOpDQV
1XPEHU 7RWDO &RPEXVWLRQJ
)ODPHOHVV $$6
+J SSE +J SSE
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
0HDQ 9DOXHV
IRU 6DPSOHV
7DEOH
SSE SDUWV SHU ELOOLRQ DV XVHG LQ WKLV SDSHU UHODWHV WR WKH 1RUWK $PHULFDQV\VWHP LQ ZKLFK
SSE SSPSDUW SHU PLOOLRQ
+J /HYHOV LQ 6HGLPHQWV RI 6ZLVV /DNHV 7KH GHWHUPLQDWLRQ RI PHUFXU\ E\ WKH
%DUULQJHU
PHWKRG FDQ RQO\ EH FDUULHG RXW RQ GULHG VDPSOHV GXH WR LQWHUIHUHQFH E\ H[FHVV ZDWHU YDSRXU 7KH RYHQ GU\LQJRI
VDPSOHV LV RSHQ WR VRPH FULWLFLVP GXH WR WKH IDFW WKDW VRPHRI
WKH PHUFXU\PD\ EH ORVW E\ YRODWLOL]DWLRQ /RVVHV LQFXUUHG E\ RYHQ GU\LQJ KDYH EHHQ JLYHQ DV WR
SHUFHQW E\ .HQQHG\ HW DO DW D WHPSHUDWXUH
RI
& DQG LQ WKH RUGHURI
SHUFHQW E\ 6LYDVDQNDUD
3LOOH\
HW DO DIWHU RYHQ GU\LQJIRU
KRXUV DW & 7KH YDOXHV IRU WRWDO PHUFXU\ JLYHQ LQ WKLV SDSHU PD\ WKXV EH DVVXPHG WR EH ORZ E\ D IDFWRURI
WR SHUFHQW$W
WKH JHQHUDO OHYHOVRI
PHUFXU\ FRQFHQWUDWLRQ LQ WKH VHGLPHQWV H[DPLQHG WKH PHUFXU\ ORVV GXULQJ VDPSOH SUHSDUDWLRQ LV QRW FRQVLGHUHG WR EH VLJQLILFDQW DV LW LV FORVH WR WKH SUHFLVLRQRI
WKH DQDO\WLFDO PHWKRG5HVXOWV DQG GLVFXVVLRQ
,W KDV EHHQ VKRZQ E\
&UDQVWRQ
DQG%OFNOH\
WKDW OHVV WKDQ RQH SHUFHQWRI
WKH WRWDO PHUFXU\ LQ D VDPSOH IURP WKH /H +DYH 5LYHU 1RYD 6FRWLD ZDV KHOG LQ WKH VL]H IUDFWLRQ JUHDWHU WKDQ PLFURQV 6WXGLHV E\ 7KRPDV LQ WKH 1RUWK$PHULFDQ *UHDW /DNHV DOVR GHPRQVWUDWHG WKH DVVRFLDWLRQ
RI
PHUFXU\ ZLWK WKH ILQH IUDFWLRQRI
WKH VHGLPHQW LQ WKRVH ODNHV 7RWDO PHUFXU\ FRQFHQWUDWLRQV ZLOO WKXV LQ SDUW YDU\ UHODWLYH WR WKH VHGLPHQWRORJLFDO FKDUDFWHULVWLFVRI
WKH KRVW VHGLPHQW5HVXOWV IURP /DNHV 2QWDULR DQG (ULH 7KRPDV XQSXEOLVKHG GDWD VKRZ WKDW FRQWDPLQDWHG VHGLPHQW DUHDV PDLQWDLQ KLJK PHUFXU\ YDOXHV UHJDUGOHVV
RI
JUDLQ VL]H HIIHFW6LQFH WKH FXUUHQW VWXG\
RI
6ZLVV ODNHV LVRI
D FRPSDUDWLYH QDWXUH LW ZDV GHFLGHG WR SDUWLDOO\ HOLPLQDWH JUDLQ VL]H YDULDWLRQ E\ DQDO\VLQJ VLHYHG VDPSOH WR UHPRYH WKH FRDUVH VHGLPHQW IUDFWLRQV $Q PHVK VLHYH ZDV VHOHFWHG GXH WR WKH IDFW WKDW WKLVLV D FRPPRQO\ XVHG PHVK VL]H LQ JHRFKHPLFDO H[SORUDWLRQ VWXGLHV ,W VKRXOG EH QRWHG KRZHYHU WKDW HYHQ WKRXJK YDOXHV GHULYHG IURP D VLHYHG IUDFWLRQ DUH
RI
PRUH YDOXH IRU GLUHFW LQWHUVDPSOH FRPSDULVRQ WKH JUDLQ VL]H HIIHFW LV QRW WRWDOO\ HOLPLQDWHG 6DPSOH PDWHULDO OHVV WKDQ PHVK VWLOO FRQWDLQV YDULDEOH SUHFHQWDJHVRI
FOD\ DQG LQHUW GHWULWDO VLOLFDWHV SUHGRPLQDQWO\ TXDUW] LQ WKH VLOW DQG ILQH VDQG VL]H UDQJHV 7UXH HOLPLQDWLRQRI
WKHVH FRPSRVLWLRQDO YDULDWLRQV FDQ RQO\ EH DFKLHYHG E\ DQDO\VLVRI
WKH OHVV WKDQ PLFURQV VL]H IUDFWLRQ 7KLV VL]H IUDFWLRQ ZDV QRW XWLOL]HG GXH WR WKH LQVXIILFLHQW TXDQWLW\ RIPDWHULDO DQG WKH WLPH LQYROYHG LQ VHSDUDWLRQ E\ VHGLPHQWDWLRQ SURFHGXUHV $GGLWLRQDOO\ WKH XVHRI
D YHU\ ILQH VL]H IUDFWLRQ ZRXOG UHVXOW LQ WKH ORVVRI
D VXEVWDQWLDO TXDQWLW\RI
WKH WRWDO PHUFXU\ LQ WKH RUGHURI
SHUFHQW&UDQVWRQ
DQG
%XFNOH\
7KLV ZRXOG LQYDOLGDWH DQ\ IXWXUH DWWHPSW WR FDOFXODWH PHUFXU\EXGJHWV IRU WKH ODNH V\VWHPV XQGHU LQYHVWLJDWLRQ
$W
SUHVHQW VXFKFDOFXODWLRQV FDQ EH HDVLO\ FDUULHG RXW E\ WKH DSSOLFDWLRQRI
D FRUUHFWLRQ IDFWRU WR DFFRXQW IRU WKH VL]HIUDFWLRQ UHPRYHG E\ SUHDQDO\VLV VLHYLQJ
0HUFXU\ OHYHOV LQ VRPH 6ZLVV ODNHV
6DPSOHV ZHUH FROOHFWHG DQG DQDO\VHG IRU PHUFXU\ IURP /DNHV -RX[ %LHQQH
%ULHQ] %RGDQ 7XPD 6DRVHR DQG *HQHYD 7KH ORFDWLRQV
RI
WKH ODNHV ZLWK DVVRFLDWHG GUDLQDJH SDWWHUQVDUH JLYHQ LQ )LJXUH 7KHQXPEHURI
VDPSOHV FROOHFWHG DQG DQDO\VHG IRU HDFK ODNH DUH VKRZQ LQ 7DEOH WRJHWKHU ZLWK WKH UDQJHRI
PHUFXU\ YDOXHV PHDQ YDOXHV DQG VWDQGDUG GHYLDWLRQV6WRP
?
(11(
,
%5,(1=
780$
O28;
*(1(9$
6$26(2
: R
6FDOH
)LJ 3ODQRI6ZLW]HUODQG VKRZLQJWKHORFDWLRQV RIWKH ODNHV VDPSOHG DQG WKHLU DVVRFLDWHG GUDLQDJH
/DNH 1XPEHU 5DQJH RI 0HDQ 6WDQGDUG
RI 9DOXHV SSE 'HYLDWLRQ
6DPSOHV SSE SSE
-28;
%,(11(
%5,(1=
%2' $1 *
780$
6$26(2
*(1(9$
5+21( 5,9(5
7DEOH
7KH LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ
RI
WKHVH OHYHOV RWKHU WKDQ LQ /DNH *HQHYD DQG WKH 5KRQH 5LYHU RQ D UHJLRQDO RU HQYLURQPHQWDO EDVLV LV GLIILFXOW DW WKH SUHVHQW WLPH GXH WR WKH+J /HYHOV LQ 6HGLPHQWV RI6ZLVV /DNHV
ODFN
RI
GDWD RQ UHJLRQDO EDFNJURXQG FRQFHQWUDWLRQV DQG ELRORJLFDO VDPSOLQJ 7KH ORZHVW YDOXHV IRU PHUFXU\ DUH VHHQ LQ /DNH %ULHQ] ZLWK D PHDQRI
SSE DQG DVWDQGDUG GHYLDWLRQ
RI
SSE 7KH DQDO\VLVRI
VDPSOHV IURP WKH XSSHU UHDFKHVRI
WKH5KRQH 5LYHU DQG DVVRFLDWHG WULEXWDULHV VHH 7DEOH 5KRQH 5LYHU %ORFN $ DQG WULEXWDULHV XSVWUHDP
RI
/D 'UDQFH JLYH PHDQ YDOXHVRI
DQG SSE UHVSHFWLYHO\OI
/DNH %ULHQ]LV FRQVLGHUHG WR EH D QRQSROOXWHG V\VWHP ZLWK UHVSHFW WR PHUFXU\WKHQD PHDQ UHJLRQDO 6ZLVV EDFNJURXQG OHYHO
RI
SSE ZRXOG EH D UHDVRQDEOH YDOXH 7KH UDQJHRI
YDOXHV IRU /DNH %ULHQ] 7DEOH XS WR SSE VXJJHVWV WKDW WKH ODNH LV QRW ZKROO\ XQFRQWDPLQDWHG DQG WKH PHDQ YDOXH IRUWKH XSSHU 5KRQH 5LYHURI
SSELV SUREDEO\ D PRUH UHDOLVWLF EDFNJURXQG OHYHO IRU WKH 6ZLVV $OSLQH GUDLQDJH V\VWHP +RZHYHU IRU WKH SXUSRVH
RI
WKLV LQLWLDO LQYHVWLJDWLRQ WKH UHJLRQDO EDFNJURXQG LV WDNHQ WR EH SSE RU OHVV 7KLV YDOXH LV SUREDEO\ KLJK EXW LV DOVR ORZHU WKDQ WKH PLQLPXP VHGLPHQW OHYHOV ZKLFK PLJKW XQGHU WKH ULJKW FLUFXPVWDQFHV EH GHOHWHULRXV WR WKH DTXDWLF ELRWD VHH ,QWURGXFWLRQ PHUFXU\ PHWK\ODWLRQ SRLQW2Q WKH EDVLV
RI
D EDFNJURXQG OHYHO RI SSE DOORI
WKH ODNHV H[DPLQHG VKRZ VRPH HYLGHQFHRI
PHUFXU\ FRQWDPLQDWLRQ 7KH KLJK DOWLWXGH DOSLQH ODNHV 7XPD DQG 6DRVHR DUHRI
SDUWLFXODU LQWHUHVW /DNH 6DRVHR LV VLWXDWHG LQ WKH VRXWKHDVWHUQ SDUW RI 6ZLW]HUODQG LQ WKH VRXWKHUQ $OSV DW DQ DOWLWXGHRI
P DQG GUDLQLQJ RXWRI
WKH FRXQWU\ WR WKH VRXWKHDVW )LJ /DNH 7XPD LV LQ D PRUH FHQWUDO VLWXDWLRQ )LJ DW DQ HOHYDWLRQRI
P DW WKH KHDGZDWHUVRI
WKH 5KLQH GUDLQLQJ QRUWK HDVWZDUGV WR /DNH %RGDQ /DNH 7XPD LV VLWXDWHG LQ D JODFLDO FZP FLUTXH DERYH WKH WUHH OLQH 7KH LPPHGLDWH EDVLQ LV VXEMHFW WR UDSLG SK\VLFDO HURVLRQ UHVXOWLQJ LQ D UHODWLYHO\ KLJK UDWHRI
VHGLPHQWDWLRQ LQ WKH ODNH /DNH 6DRVHR LV VLWXDWHG EHORZ WKH WUHH OLQH SRQGHG E\ D JODFLDO PRUUDLQH 7KH ODNH EHG LV FRPSRVHGRI
URFN EORFNV ZLWK VHGLPHQWDFFXPXODWLQJ LQ WKH LQWHUYHQLQJ VSDFHV 7KH ODNH EDVLQ LV YHJHWDWHG ZLWK VORZ HURVLRQ UHVXOWLQJ LQ ORZ UDWHV
RI
VHGLPHQW DFFXPXODWLRQ LQ WKH ODNH7KH PHDQ OHYHOV
RI
PHUFXU\ LQ WKH VHGLPHQWVRI
WKH WZR ODNHV VKRZ WKDW FRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQ /DNH 6DRVHR DUH DSSUR[LPDWHO\ WKUHH WLPHV WKH OHYHOV REVHUYHG LQ /DNH 7XPD /DNH 7XPD ZLWK D PHDQ
RI
SSE VKRZV RQO\ VOLJKW HYLGHQFHRI
PHUFXU\FRQWDPLQDWLRQ ZKLFK LV YHULILHG WR VRPH H[WHQW E\ WKH PD[LPXP YDOXH
RI
SSE 7KLV LV LQ GLUHFW FRQWUDVW WR /DNH 6DRVHR ZKLFK VKRZV D UDQJHRI
YDOXHV IURP WRSSE ZLWK D PHDQ
RI
SSE ,Q ERWKRI
WKHVH ODNHV WKHUH LV QR HYLGHQFH IRU DGLUHFW LQSXW
RI
PHUFXU\ DQG WKH FRQWDPLQDWLRQ LV EHOLHYHG WR EH WKH UHVXOWRI
DWPRVSKHULF IDOORXW 7KHYDULDWLRQ LQPHUFXU\OHYHOV PD\ EH UHODWHG LQSDUWWR WKH SRVWXODWHG GLIIHUHQFH LQ WKH VHGLPHQWDWLRQ UDWHV
RI
WKH WZR ODNHV 7R D JUHDWHU H[WHQW KRZHYHU WKH YDULDWLRQ LV EHOLHYHG WR EH D IXQFWLRQRI
WKHLU JHRJUDSKLF ORFDWLRQ$VVXPLQJ SUHYDLOLQJ VRXWK ZHVWHUO\ DQG ZHVWHUO\ ZLQGV LQ WKH UHJLRQ DQG WKH GHULYDWLRQ
RI
WKH DWPRVSKHULF PHUFXU\ IURP WKH LQGXVWULDO FRPSOH[HVRI
1RUWKHUQ ,WDO\ LQ WKH UHJLRQRI
7XULQ DQG 0LODQ WKHQ WKH KLJKHU OHYHOVRI
PHUFXU\ ZRXOG EH FDUULHG SDVW WKH UHJLRQRI
/DNH 6DRVHR $GGLWLRQDOO\ VLQFH 6DRVHR LV VLWXDWHG RQ WKH VRXWKHUQ IODQNVRI
WKH $OSV LW ZLOO UHFHLYH WKH LQLWLDO SUHFLSLWDWLRQ ZKLFK LV OLNHO\ WR SXUJH WKH DWPRVSKHULF PHUFXU\ ZLWK UHVXOWLQJ KLJKHU FRQFHQWUDWLRQV LQ UDLQ RU VQRZ WKDQ ZRXOG EH H[SHFWHG LQ SUHFLSLWDWLRQ IXUWKHU QRUWK LQ WKH UHJLRQRI
/DNH 7XPD7KH UHDVRQV IRU WKH KLJK OHYHOV
RI
PHUFXU\ LQ /DNH -RX[ 7DEOH DUH QRW DV \HW XQGHUVWRRG,W
LV SRVVLEOH WKDW VRPH LQGXVWULDO FRQWDPLQDWLRQ PD\ KDYH RFFXUUHG IURP VPDOO ZDWFK PDNLQJ IDFWRULHV RU VDZPLOOV WKRXJK WKLV GRHV QRW VHHP WR EH D(&/2*$( *(2/+(/9
VDWLVIDFWRU\ H[SODQDWLRQ IRU WKH REVHUYHG PHDQ YDOXH
RI
SSE 7KH FDXVHRI
WKHVHYDOXHV PXVW DZDLW IXWXUH GHWDLOHG LQYHVWLJDWLRQV
7KH KLJK OHYHOV REVHUYHG LQ /DNH %RGDQ %LHQQH DQG *HQHYD DUH SUREDEO\ GXH WR WKH LQGXVWULDO DQG PXQLFLSDO GLVFKDUJH
RI
PHUFXU\ 7KLV LV GLVFXVVHG ODWHU ZLWK UHIHUHQFH WR /DNH *HQHYD DQG WKH 5KRQH 5LYHU7KH PHUFXU\ GDWD IRU WKH 6ZLVV ODNHV LV VXPPDUL]HG LQ )LJXUH ZKLFK VKRZV WKH PHDQ YDOXHV DQG WKH VSUHDG
RI
RQH VWDQGDUG GHYLDWLRQ 7KH YHU\ ODUJH VWDQGDUG GHYLDWLRQ REVHUYHG IRU/DNH %RGDQLVGXH WRWKHIDFWWKDWVDPSOHVZHUH WDNHQERWKIURP WKH PRUH SROOXWHG ZHVWHUQ SDUWRI
WKH ODNH 8QWHUVHH DQG WKH ODUJHU HDVWHUQ VHFWLRQ 2EHUVHH JLYLQJ D ZLGH UDQJHRI
PHUFXU\ YDOXHV IURP WR SSE $GGLWLRQDOO\WKH YDOXHV JLYHQ IRU /DNH %LHQQH LQ 7DEOH DQG LQ )LJXUH PD\ EH UHODWLYHO\ ORZ
© ]
V
,
©©£
]] 6 6 6.VV
,,
6££
8- R 6 WP W P R DRR ;66 WW
)LJ 0HDQ PHUFXU\ FRQFHQWUDWLRQV RQH VWDQGDUG GHYLDWLRQ RI WKH 6ZLVV ODNHV H[DPLQHG
FRPSDUHG WR WKH RWKHU ODNHV GXH WR WKH IDFW WKDW VDPSOH YDOXHV IURP WKLV ODNH UHIHU WR D FRPSRVLWH VDPSOH
RI
DSSUR[LPDWHO\WKHWRS WR FHQWLPHWHUVRI
WKH VHGLPHQW FROXPQ$OO
RWKHU YDOXHV TXRWHG LQ WKLV WH[W DUH IRU WKH WRS PPRI
VHGLPHQW8QWLO
GHWDLOHG ILVK DQDO\VHV EHFRPH DYDLODEOH WKH HQYLURQPHQWDO HIIHFWVRI
WKHVHGLPHQW PHUFXU\ OHYHOV GLVFXVVHG DERYH PXVW UHPDLQ FRQMHFWXUDO )URP WKH UHVXOWV
RIILVK
DQDO\VHV%OLJK
VHGLPHQW PHUFXU\ OHYHOV LQ /DNH 2QWDULR DUH UHVXOWLQJ LQ GHOHWHULRXV HIIHFWV RQ WKH IRRG FKDLQ ,Q WKH HDVWHUQ SDUWRI
WKH ODNH VRPHRI
WKH ILVKOHYHOV DUH LQ H[FHVV
RI
WKH SHUPLVVDEOH SSP DQG UHVWULFWLRQV KDYH EHHQ SODFHG RQ FRPPHUFLDO ILVKLQJ 7KH PHDQ WRWDO VHGLPHQW FRQFHQWUDWLRQ LQ /DNH 2QWDULR LVSSE 7KRPDV :KHQ FRUUHFWHG IRU VDQG DQG JUDYHO FRQWHQW JUHDWHU WKDW PLFURQV WKH PHUFXU\ FRQFHQWUDWLRQ LQ WKH VLOW DQG FOD\ IUDFWLRQV VWDQGV DW SSE
9HUQHW
DQG 7KRPDV 7KLV FRUUHFWHG YDOXH LV D OLWWOH KLJK WR FRPSDUH GLUHFWO\ZLWK WKH 6ZLVV ODNH PHUFXU\ OHYHOV VLQFH QR FRUUHFWLRQ IRU WKH GLOXWLRQ E\ WKH PLFURQ VL]H IUDFWLRQ FDQ EH PDGH +RZHYHU RQ WKH EDVLV
RI
WKH /DNH 2QWDULR YDOXHV JLYHQ DERYH LW FDQ EH VXJJHVWHG WKDW HOHYDWHG ILVK YDOXHV PD\ EH IRXQG LQ /DNHV -RX[%RGDQ 6DRVHR DQG SRVVLEO\ *HQHYD
,W
VKRXOG QRW EH RYHUORRNHG KRZHYHU WKDW LQ+J /HYHOV LQ 6HGLPHQWV RI6ZLVV /DNHV
DGGLWLRQ WR WKH VHGLPHQW FRQFHQWUDWLRQV
RI
PHUFXU\ WKH IROORZLQJ IRXU IDFWRUVZLOO
KDYH RQ LQIOXHQFH RQ WKH ILVK OHYHOV
7KH VSHFLHV
RIILVK
DQG LWV SRVLWLRQ LQ WKH DTXDWLF IRRG FKDLQ$JH FODVV
RI
WKH ILVK 7KHUH LV D GLUHFW FRUUHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ ILVK ZHLJKW DQG PHUFXU\ FRQFHQWUDWLRQ%OLJK
7KH WURSKLF OHYHO
RI
WKH ODNH DQG LWV HIIHFW RQ EDFWHULDO GHQVLW\ DQG DFWLYLW\7KH S+
RI
WKH ODNH V\VWHP DV D FRQWURO RQ WKH SUHIHUHQWLDO IRUPDWLRQRI GLRU
PRQRPHWK\OPHUFXU\
0HUFXU\ OHYHOV LQ WKH 5KRQH 5LYHU DQG/DNH *HQHYD
7KH JHRFKHPLFDO H[SORUDWLRQ IRU JROG DQG EDVH PHWDO GHSRVLWV XVLQJ PHUFXU\ DV D WUDFHU HOHPHQW LV D ZHOO NQRZQ WHFKQLTXH -RQDVVRQ ,Q WKLV FRQWH[W WKH PRVW XVHIXO FKDUDFWHULVWLF
RI
WKH HOHPHQW LQ WKH IUHVK ZDWHU HQYLURQPHQW LV UHODWHG WR LWV EDVLF ODFNRI
PRELOLW\ 0HUFXU\ LQWURGXFHG WR WKH IUHVK ZDWHU V\VWHP HLWKHU IURP QDWXUDO RULQGXVWULDO VRXUFHVLVUDSLGO\ FKHODWHG RUDGVRUEHG E\ ILQH JUDLQHGSDUWLFXODWH LQRUJDQLF RU RUJDQLF PDWHULDO ,Q WKLV PDQQHU WKH PHUFXU\ LV WUDQVSRUWHG GLVSHUVHG DQG GHSRVLWHG UHODWLYH WR WKH K\GUDXOLF FRQGLWLRQV ZLWKLQ WKH V\VWHP :LWK GLVSHUVLRQ WKHUH LV D GHFUHDVLQJ FRQFHQWUDWLRQ LQ D GRZQVWUHDP GLUHFWLRQ ZKLFK PD\ EH XWLOL]HG WR LGHQWLI\ WKH VRXUFH SRLQW RU UHJLRQ,Q RUGHU WR DWWHPSW WR ORFDWH WKH SULPDU\ VRXUFHV
RI
LQGXVWULDO PHUFXU\ LQSXW WRWKH 5KRQH 5LYHU DQG /DNH *HQHYD PHUFXU\ DQDO\VHV ZHUH FDUULHG RXW RQ VHGLPHQW VDPSOHV WDNHQ IURP WKH 5KRQH 5LYHUDQG LWV DVVRFLDWHG WULEXWDULHV DQG FDQDO V\VWHPV
$SSUR[LPDWHO\ NLORPHWHUVRI ULYHU ZHUH VDPSOHG IURP /DNH *HQHYD XSVWUHDP WR 1DWHUV
7KH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ SURILOH
RI
VHGLPHQW ERXQG PHUFXU\ LQ WKH 5KRQH 5LYHU LV VKRZQ LQ )LJXUH )URP VDPSOH DW 1DWHUV GRZQVWUHDP WR VDPSOH PHUFXU\YDOXHV DUH ORZ UDQJLQJ IURP WR SSE 7KHVH VDPSOH YDOXHV FRPSULVH EORFN
$
)LJ DQG ZLWK D PHDQ YDOXHRI
SSE UHSUHVHQWV WKH 5KRQH 5LYHU EDFNJURXQG YDOXH $IWHU VDPSOH WKH PHUFXU\ FRQFHQWUDWLRQ LQFUHDVHV GUDPDWLFDOO\ WR SSE DW VDPSOH GRZQVWUHDPRI
D FDQDO LQSXW 7KLV FDQDO KDV EHHQ GHVLJQDWHG &DQDO ; LQ )LJXUH )URP VDPSOH WR VDPSOH PHUFXU\OHYHOVRVFLOODWH EXW VKRZ D SURJUHVVLYHGHFUHDVH WR DSSUR[LPDWHO\ SSE %HWZHHQ VDPSOHV DQG D VHFRQG FDQDO V\VWHP &DQDO < HQWHUV WKH 5KRQH 5LYHU DJDLQ HOHYDWLQJ PHUFXU\ OHYHOV DERYH
SSE 9DOXHV DJDLQ GHFUHDVH GRZQVWUHDP WR EHWZHHQ VDPSOHV DQG ZKHUH D
ILQDO SHDN LQ PHUFXU\ FRQFHQWUDWLRQ FDQ EH VHHQ WR RFFXU LQ DVVRFLDWLRQ ZLWK &DQDO = )LJ
7KH KLJK YDOXH
RI
PHUFXU\ SSE VHHQ DW WKH PRXWKRI
WKH ULYHU DW VDPSOHLV EHOLHYHG WR EH GXH WR WKH GHSRVLWLRQ
RI
ILQH PDWHULDO ZLWK GHFUHDVLQJ VWUHDP YHORFLWLHVDV WKH ULYHU HQWHUV HDVWHUQ /DNH *HQHYD
7KH VDPSOHV XVHG LQ WKH SURILOH GHVFULEHG DERYH ZHUH FROOHFWHG LQ DQG FDQ EH VHHQ WR FRQWDLQ FRQVLVWDQWO\ KLJKHU OHYHOV
RI
PHUFXU\ WKDQ IRU VDPSOHV WDNHQ LQ WKH ORZHU UHDFKHVRI
WKH ULYHU LQ )LJ 7KLV ZRXOG VHHP WR VXJJHVW DQ LQFUHDVH LQ WKH PHUFXU\ ORDGLQJ WR WKH ULYHU RYHU WKH RQH \HDU LQWHUYDO EHWZHHQ VDPSOLQJ7KH ODUJH LQFUHDVH LQ PHUFXU\ FRQFHQWUDWLRQV EHWZHHQ DQG PD\ LQ DGGLWLRQ EH GXH WR WKH H[FHSWLRQDOO\ GU\ FRQGLWLRQV DQG ORZ ULYHU OHYHOV LQ 7KH
SSP ,SSP
SS
2O
9
L
£7L=2
=
=
Wt
L ,
5+21( /$.(127 72 6&$/(
:a)/2: ',5(&7,21
5,9(5 /(0$1
5+21( 5,9(5 6$03/(6 5+21( 5,9(5 6$03/(6
6$03/( 9$/8( ,1 1$0(' 75,%87$5<
6$03/(6 7$.(1 ,1 $ &$1$/ 6<67(0
)LJ 0HUFXU\ SURILOHV LQ WKH VHGLPHQWV RI WKH 5KRQH 5LYHU
VHTXHQWLDO VDPSOLQJ
RI
VDPSOH )LJ DW 3RUWH GX 6FH[ IURP WR KRZHYHU FRQILUPV WKDW DQ LQFUHDVH LQ PHUFXU\ ORDGLQJV WR WKH VHGLPHQWVRI
WKH 5KRQH 5LYHU KDV EHHQ RFFXUULQJ GXULQJ WKLV WLPH LQWHUYDO 7KH UHVXOWV DUH VXPPDUL]HG DV IROORZV<HDU
+J FRQFHQWUDWLRQ
LQ SSE
3ULRU WR PHUFXU\ YDOXHV DW VDPSOH ZHUH RQO\ PDUJLQDOO\ KLJKHU WKDQ WKH EDFNJURXQG OHYHOV REVHUYHG LQ WKH XSVWUHDP VHFWLRQ
RI
WKH 5KRQH 5LYHU EORFN $ GHVFULEHG DERYH %HWZHHQ DQG D VXEVWDQWLDO LQFUHDVH LQ PHUFXU\ OHYHOV RFFXUUHG ZKLFK PD\ EH UHODWHG WR VRPH IRUPRI
LQGXVWULDO LQSXW WR WKH ULYHU )URPWR WKH PHUFXU\ LQSXW WR WKH ULYHU KDV LQFUHDVHG VXIILFLHQWO\ WR UDLVH WKH VHGLPHQW PHUFXU\ WR D OHYHO WLPHV WKH YDOXHV UHFRUGHG LQ DQG
)URP WKH PHUFXU\ SURILOH LQ WKH ULYHU VHGLPHQWV WKHUH DSSHDUV WR EH WKUHH PDMRU VRXUFHV
RI
PHUFXU\ WR WKH 5KRQH 5LYHU DQG /DNH *HQHYD (DFK VRXUFH LV LGHQWLILHGDV D FDQDO V\VWHP 7KLV LV FRQILUPHG E\ WKH DQDO\VLV
RI
VHGLPHQWV WDNHQ IURP &DQDOV;
<
DQG = WKH YDOXHV IRU ZKLFK DUH LOOXVWUDWHG LQ )LJXUH DQG TXRWHG LQ 7DEOH )URP 7DEOH LW FDQ EH VHHQ WKDW WKH DYHUDJH PHUFXU\ YDOXH IRU WKH FDQDO V\VWHPV LV SSE RU DSSUR[LPDWHO\ WLPHV WKH DYHUDJH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ IRU WKH 5KRQH 5LYHU 7KH PHUFXU\ YDOXHVIRU
VHGLPHQWV WDNHQ IURP VHYHQ WULEXWDU\ VWUHDPV DUH DOVR JLYHQ LQ )LJXUH DQG 7DEOH 7ULEXWDULHV HQWHULQJ WKH 5KRQH 5LYHU XSVWUHDPRI
+J /HYHOV LQ 6HGLPHQWV RI 6ZLVV /DNHV
0DUWLJQ\ JLYH ORZ EDFNJURXQG YDOXHV ZLWK DQ DYHUDJH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ
RI
SSE 7KH 'UDQFH HQWHULQJ WKH 5KRQH DW 0DUWLJQ\ JDYH D YDOXHRI
SSE VXJJHVWLQJ VWURQJO\WKDW WKLV ULYHU PD\ EH DQ DGGLWLRQDO VRXUFH
RI
PHUFXU\ WR WKH 5KRQH 5LYHU 7KH UHPDLQLQJ WULEXWDULHV GRZQVWUHDPRI
/D 'UDQFH WKDW ZHUH VDPSOHG JDYH ORZYDOXHVSSE IRU O$YDQFRQ DQG SSE IRU /D 9LqJH QHLWKHU
RI
ZKLFK FDQ EH PDNLQJ D VLJQLILFDQW FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH PHUFXU\ ORDGLQJRI
WKH 5KRQH 5LYHU$UHD 1XPEHU 5DQJH 0HDQ 6WDQGDUG
RI SSE SSE 'HYLDWLRQ
6DPSOHV SSE
5+21( 75,%87$5,(6
7ULEXWDULHV XSVWUHDP
RI /D 'UDQFH
/D 'UDQFH DQG
GRZQVWUHDP WULEXWDULHV
5+21( 5,9(5
$OO 6DPSOHV
%ORFN $
%ORFN %
%ORFN &
/$.( *(1(9$
*UDQG /DF
3HWLW /DF
5+21( 5,9(5 &$1$/
6<67(06
$OO 6DPSOHV
&DQDO 6\VWHP ;
&DQDO 6\VWHP <
&DQDO 6\VWHP =
7DEOH
%DVLF VWDWLVWLFV UHODWLYH WR WKH GDWD SUHVHQWHG LQ )LJXUH DUH JLYHQ LQ 7DEOH 7KH 5KRQH 5LYHU KDV EHHQ GLYLGHG LQWR WKUHH PDLQ VWUHWFKHV $ % DQG & FRYHULQJ WKH DUHD XSVWUHDP
RI
&DQDO ; %ORFN $ &DQDO ; WR &DQDO = %ORFN % DQG &DQDO = WR /DNH *HQHYD %ORFN & 7KH PHDQ PHUFXU\YDOXHV DQG WKH VSUHDGRI
RQH VWDQGDUG GHULYDWLRQIRU
EORFNV $ % DQG & DUH LOOXVWUDWHG LQ )LJXUH WRJHWKHU ZLWK WKH PHDQ YDOXHV IRU WKH *UDQG /DF (DVWHUQ EDVLQRI
/DNH *HQHYD DQG WKH 3HWLW /DF ZHVWHUQ EDVLQRI
/DNH *HQHYD )LJXUH LOOXVWUDWHV YHU\ ZHOO WKH SURJUHVVLYH LQFUHDVH LQ VHGLPHQW PHUFXU\ FRQFHQWUDWLRQVGRZQ WKH 5KRQH 5LYHU WRWKH*UDQG /DF 'LVSHUVLRQ RI WKH PHUFXU\ LQ WKH ODUJH ODNH V\VWHPRI
/DNH *HQHYD UHVXOWV LQ D GHFUHDVH LQ WKHDYHUDJH PHUFXU\ FRQFHQWUDWLRQ LQ WKH *UDQG /DF ZLWK D IXUWKHU GHFUHDVH LQWR WKH
U
% &5+21( 5,9(5
*5$1' 3(7,7 /$& /$&
/$.( *(1(9$
)LJ 0HDQ PHUFXU\ FRQFHQWUDWLRQV RQH VWDQGDUG GHYLDWLRQ LQ WKH VHGLPHQWV RI WKH 5KRQH
5LYHU DQG /DNH *HQHYD
3HWLW /DF DZD\ IURP WKH VRXUFH
RI
PHUFXU\ WR WKH ODNH IURP WKH 5KRQH 5LYHU 7KH PHDQ PHUFXU\ FRQFHQWUDWLRQVRI
DQG SSE LQ WKH *UDQG /DF DQG 3HWLW /DF UHVSHFWLYHO\ ZKHQ FRPSDUHG WR WKH EDFNJURXQG OHYHORI
WKH 5KRQH 5LYHURI
SSE%ORFN $ 7DEOH JLYHV VRPH FRQFHSW
RI
WKH H[WHQWRI
WKH FRQWDPLQDWLRQRI
WKH ODNH&RQFOXVLRQV
7KH UHVXOWV
RI
DQ LQLWLDO VXUYH\RI
WKH PHUFXU\ FRQFHQWUDWLRQV LQ WKH VHGLPHQWVRI
VRPH 6ZLVV ODNHV GHPRQVWUDWHV WKDW VRPH FRQWDPLQDWLRQ E\ LQGXVWULDO PHUFXU\ KDV RFFXUUHG 7KH H[WHQW
RI
WKLVSROOXWLRQ LVGLIILFXOW WRHVWLPDWHDVWKHUH LVLQVXIILFLHQW GDWD WR GHWHUPLQH D SUHFLVH DQG UHDOLVWLF UHJLRQDO EDFNJURXQG OHYHO )RU WKH SXUSRVHRI
WKLV SDSHU KRZHYHU D YDOXHRI
SSE KDV EHHQ XWLOL]HG DV D VHQVLEOHLI
SSVRPHZKDWKLJK EDFNJURXQG OHYHO IRU WKH LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ
RI
WKH ODNH GDWD$OO RI
WKH ODNHV H[DPLQHG JDYH VRPH LQGLYLGXDO VDPSOH YDOXHV LQGLFDWLYHRI
PHUFXU\ LQSXW LQ H[FHVV WR WKDW ZKLFK PLJKW EH FRQVLGHUHGWR EH
RI
QDWXUDO JHRORJLFDO RULJLQ 7KH PHDQ YDOXHV FRQILUP WKLV VXSSRVLWLRQ ZLWK DOO ODNHV RWKHU WKDQ /DNH%ULHQ] KDYLQJ D PHDQ VHGLPHQW PHUFXU\ FRQFHQWUDWLRQ LQ H[FHVV
RI
SSE 7KH OHYHOVRI
PHUFXU\ FRQFHQWUDWLRQ DUH YDULDEOH DQG WKH PHUFXU\ LV EHOLHYHGWR EH GHULYHG IURP WZR VRXUFHV DWPRVSKHULF DQG LQGXVWULDOPXQLFLSDO7KH WZR PRVW VRXWKHDVWHUQ ODNHV 6DRVHR DQG 7XPD ERWK VLWXDWHG DW KLJK
HOHYDWLRQV VKRZ HYLGHQFH
RI
DWPRVSKHULF PHUFXU\ FRQWDPLQDWLRQ ZKLFK LV SUREDEO\GHULYHG IURP WKH LQGXVWULDO FRPSOH[HV
RI
1RUWKHUQ ,WDO\ /DNH 6DRVHR KDV D PHDQ FRQFHQWUDWLRQRI
SSE DSSUR[LPDWHO\WKUHH WLPHV WKH OHYHO REVHUYHG LQ /DNH7XPD ZLWK D PHDQRI
SSE 7KLV YDULDWLRQ LQ FRQFHQWUDWLRQ LV EHOLHYHG WR EH GXH WR WKH JHRJUDSKLF ORFDWLRQRI
WKH ODNHV ZLWK /DNH 6DRVHRH[SRVHG WR JUHDWHU FRQFHQWUDWLRQVRI
DWPRVSKHULF IDOORXW LQ UDLQ DQG VQRZ LQ WKH SUHYDLOLQJ VRXWK ZHVWHUO\ ZLQGV+J /HYHOV LQ 6HGLPHQWV RI 6ZLVV /DNHV 7KH FRQWDPLQDWLRQ RI WKH UHPDLQLQJ ODNHV %LHQQH -RX[ %RGDQ DQG *HQHYD LV EHOLHYHG WR EH GXH WR YDULDEOH PHUFXU\ GLVFKDUJH IURP LQGXVWULDO DQG PXQLFLSDO VRXUFHV
$ PRUH GHWDLOHG H[DPLQDWLRQ
RI
WKH VHGLPHQWVRI
/DNH *HQHYD DQG WKH 5KRQH 5LYHU VKRZV SRVLWLYH HYLGHQFH IRU WKH LQGXVWULDO FRQWDPLQDWLRQRI
WKH ULYHU ZLWK FRQVHTXHQW HOHYDWHG PHUFXU\ FRQFHQWUDWLRQV LQ WKH VHGLPHQWVRI
WKH ODNH GRZQVWUHDP+LJK OHYHOV RI VHGLPHQW ERXQG PHUFXU\ JLYH FRQFOXVLYH HYLGHQFH WKDW WKUHH FDQDO V\VWHPV GHVLJQDWHG ; < DQG = DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH 5KRQH 5LYHU DUH WKH SULPDU\
VRXUFHV
RI
LQGXVWULDO PHUFXU\ FRQWDPLQDWLRQ $Q DGGLWLRQDO WKRXJK OHVV VLJQLILFDQW VRXUFH RI PHUFXU\ WR WKH ULYHU PD\ EH UHODWHG WR WKH /D 'UDQFHWULEXWDU\
HQWHULQJ WKH 5KRQH 5LYHU DW 0DUWLJQ\ 6DPSOHV WDNHQ RYHU D SHULRG IURP WR VXJJHVW WKDW WKH PDMRU LQSXWRI
LQGXVWULDO PHUFXU\ FRPPHQFHG EHWZHHQ DQG DQG KDV EHHQ LQFUHDVLQJ DQQXDOO\ WR$FNQRZOHGJPHQWV
7KHDXWKRUV ZRXOG OLNH WR WKDQN %5* 0 2UOpDQV )UDQFHDQG WKH &DQDGD &HQWUH IRU ,QODQG :DWHUV %XUOLQJWRQ 2QWDULR &DQDGD IRU WKHLU DVVLVWDQFHGXULQJ WKLV LQYHVWLJDWLRQ
7KDQNV DUH DGGLWLRQDOO\H[SUHVVHG WR 3URIHVVRU 6WXPP 'UV 0LFKHOVHQ DQG *HLJHU RI($:$*
IRU WKHLU DVVLVWDQFH LQ REWDLQLQJ VDPSOHV IURP /DNHV 6DRVHR 7XPD DQG %LHQQH DQG WR 'UV 0DWWHU DQG 6WXUPRIWKH 8QLYHUVLW\RI%HUQH IRU KHOSLQ WKHFROOHFWLRQ RIVDPSOHV IURP /DNH %ULHQ]
$FNQRZOHGJPHQW LV DOVR PDGH WR WKH 6ZLVV 1DWLRQDO )XQG IRU WKH ILQDQFLDO VXSSRUW RI WKH FXUUHQW OLPQRJHRORJLFDO LQYHVWLJDWLRQV RI6ZLVV ODNHV
5()(5(1&(6
%OLJK (* 0HUFXU\ /HYHOV LQ &DQDGLDQ )LVK 3URFHHGLQJV RIWKH V\PSRVLXP 0HUFXU\ LQ 0DQV (QYLURQPHQW 5R\DO 6RFLHW\ RI&DQDGD S
&UDQVWRQ 5(DQG %XFNOH\ '( 0HUFXU\3DWKZD\V LQD 5LYHUDQG (VWXDU\ (QYLWRQ 6FL DQG
)XMLNL 0 6WXGLHV RQ WKH &RXUVH WKDW WKH &DXVDWLYH $JHQW RI0LQLPDWD 'LVHDVH ZDVIRUPHG
HVSHFLDOO\ RQ WKH $FFXPXODWLRQ RIWKH 0HUFXU\ &RPSRXQG LQ WKH )LVK DQG 6KHOOILVK RI0LQLPDWD
%D\ .XPDPRWR PHG 6RF
,UXND\DPD . 0LQLPDOD 'LVHDVH 7KLUG ,QWHUQDWLRQDO &RQIHUHQFH RQ :DWHU 3ROOXWLRQ 5H¤
VHDUFK 3DSHU 1R :DWHU 3ROOXWLRQ &HQWUDO )HGHUDWLRQ :DVKLQJWRQ '& 7KH 3ROOXWLRQ RI
0LQLPDWD %D\ DQG 0LQLPDWD 'LVHDVH $GYDQ :DWHU 3ROOXW 5HV 3URF UG ,QW
&RQI 0XQLFK *HUPDQ\ 6HSW
-HQVHQ 6 DQG -HUQDO|Y $ 0LFURRUJDQLVPV &DSDEOH RI 0HWK\ODWLQJ 0HUFXU\O 1RUG IRUVN %LRFLQGHQIRUPDWLRQ 1R
0LFURRUJDQLVPV &DSDEOH RI 0HWK\ODWLQJ 0HUFXU\,, 1RUGIRUVN %LRFLQGHQIRUPDWLRQ
1R
%LRORJLFDO 0HWK\ODWLRQRI0HUFXU\ LQ$TXDWLF 2UJDQLVPV 1DWXUH
-HUQDO|Y $ /DERUDWRU\ ([SHULPHQWV 5HJDUGLQJWKH &RQYHUVLRQRI0HUFXU\ LQWRLWV'LIIHUHQW
)RUPVRI2FFXUUHQFH 9DWWHQ 'HSW 6HF 6WDWH7UDQVL %XUHDX6HU1R 9DWWHQ )LVKHULHV 5HVHDUFK %RDUG RI &DQDGD 7UDQVt 6HU 1R
9DWWHQ 'HSW 6HF 6WDWH7UDQVL %XUHDX 1R
&RQYHUVLRQ RI0HUFXU\ &RPSRXQG ,Q &KHPLFDO)DOORXW (G 0LOOHU DQG %RUJ &KDUOHV
& 7KRPDV 6SULQJILHOG ,OOLQRLV
5HOHDVHRI0HWK\O 0HUFXU\IURP6HGLPHQWV ZLWK /D\HUV &RQWDLQLQJ ,QRUJDQLF 0HUFXU\ DW 'LIIqUHQW 'HSWKV /LPQRO 2FHDQRJU
-RQDVVRQ /5 0HUFXU\LQ WKH 1DWXUDO (QYLURQPHQW D 5HYLHZRI5HFHQW :RUN *HRO 6XUY
&DQ SDSHU