1
UNITED NATIONS
ECONOMIC AND
SOCIAL COUNCIL
Distr. LIMITED E/ECA/SERPD/IMDIC/3Oririr.nl - ENGLISH
ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR AFRICA
Expert Consultation on c. System of Socle- economic Iiv'iic.itors i:'.-r African Planners Addis Ababa, Ethi-;ni^. 23-27 January 1334
DEFINITION, SELECTION AND USE OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS
CONTENTS
A. INTRODUCTION
E. THE NATURE OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS, C. INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCE IN INDICATOR
DEVELOPMENT L
D. INDICATOR SELECTION IN AFRICAN CONDITIONS ,...
E. THE USE'OF INDICATORS IM DEVELOPMENT PLANNING_
F. MiilN CATEGORIES OF INDICATORS ...
G. INDICATOP DATA BANK. ...
H, PECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS ,....,..
ANNEXES:
I. ILLUSTRi'iTIVE LIST OF INDICATORS
II. SOME IIJDICATO5 CUOSS-CORRKLATIOFS-FC?.
DEVELOPING AFRICA COUNTRIES
III. INDICATOR CROSS-COnRELATIGNS IR DEVELOVTi-'C AFRICA (SECOND SAMPLE)
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A. INTRODUCTION
1» Aaong the quantitative instruments at the disposal of planners;~and economistSj indicators have been attracting^considerable attention in recent .years; & great deal of research has been,done on. them, and' their 'use'has'"
grown with, the greater importance of social concerns in development. In Africa, because information is deficient in both amount and quality, the-use of suitable instruments is even more important than in other regions, and the possibilities-offered by indicators,must therefore.be' explored; In this paperj 'aimed at, providing a.background for discussion, after, an.' exanination
■of the nature of indicators and a brief account of the state-'of research at .the,; international level, we will janalyse the special problems involved-in indicator construction and use in-African conditions,' examine the-main types qf indicator of relevance-in Africa,.and propose a tentative-list of such indicators,■ The paper presented .at this meeting under the title
"Proposed system of socio—economic indicators for African planners", gives a full account, and a thorough'discussion of-what will be'the-starting point, for -a practical system of socio-economic indicators, for Africa/' ' . ''
B. THE NATURE OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC fNDICATORS
i
2t. ■ An indicator is by definition something which indicates, that is . which points to something other than itself. Consequently, a socio—economic -'"indicator -should be a measure pointing to or indicating a variable which is.
different fror.i the one o"f which it is a direct measure* Following . McGranahan we will then consider, for example, that the school enrolment ratio is ah1 indicator of the educational level of a country rather than of
school enrolment'JL/ ^n practice,--however, ther line between indicators in the
proper, sense, of being indirect measures of a variable, and in the ordinary .;■ statistical sense of direct measurements is not as clear as it' should,b'e.
,.In- common.usage, what properly .differentiates indicator's from statistics is that they are considered to be the "best measure" of a given variable among - a set of similar statistics. It is clear for example that GDP per head is
;.the best"*measure of income, despite the biases inherent in GDP calculations.
1/ Donald McGranahan, "Development indicators and development models"^"
Journal of"Development Studios, Vol. 8j No, 3 (April 1972), p^ 91. _"
e/eca/sekfd/imdic/3 Page"V '"
;3*, Building on the, idea of. indicators' as "best" measurements"-,--it setms
; possible to-give a1 definition :of. indicators which is' operational,- that is to consider them as-statistics or functions of statistics -selected to provide measurements, of a complex phenomenon'in the framework of a unified and ■'•
. systematic conception or theory' of the= said:phenomenon. :This definition' , seems to.-cover the two-acceptations-: of the idea of an' indicatory W can' be
seen-when considering indicators of health, - which are both"indicators;:(since .theyxare.proxy measurements -of a strictly non-measurable phenomenon) and"
statis-tics-giving.direct measurements of variables like'health expectancy, mortality,-number of hospital beds-per thousand inhabitants, etc.■■Moreover, when-choosing indica-tors of health, -we try to select" a'short list'6'f statistics
■which will' Ve.-.the^best measures;; of.-the variables involved and;which will"' provide an image of the: interrelatioriBibe-tween'thesevvariables;': ■'" '"- -4«- ■: .The definition.'of socio-economic indicators-mil then depend" on -
a conceptual1framework-for-development,"allowing us to define ;the variables to be measured, the mutual relationships between these variables, as well as their relationships with..the .statistics -from amqng which-the indicators will be selected. The need "to have an integrated set of measurements enabling us
to describe development in all its .dimensions is in fact, at the origin of whaf. can be called the ;\indicatorjnovement'\" There has-"been increasing' -, : recognition of the inadequacy of purply .economic measures .of, development- at
a time vrhen "social ^concerns and; particularly distributional issues are "'tl becoming; Eforc and more important*. .Not o.nly does GDP,',the.' r.iain indicator of. income, suffer from many intrinsic, biases., such as those ,,introduco(i; by- .tho-absence of "adequate" valuations for. non-marketable products, but in
addition it entirely ignores the distribution of income, as well-as the.
VCJV disutilities arising from the development process, itself, like pollution of the environment. If we rely solely, on-GDP'we arc in- danger ,of'. overlooking the fact that economic growth is not a uniform process and:that, while some sectors of a country may be progressing fast,, large sectors of the population .-way bo still living in squalor.. Moreover, cconpirdc measurements conceal- the
fact that non-economic, social, cultural, political or ethical factors nay be the i-nost important development factors.
5. The need for^ci conceptual-.frameworkrfor7the effective definition of
indicators, Means however^ .that, we will/not be able ,to. define, socio-economic
indicators in an unique and'unambiguous way, since there is^no"uniVcrsally
accepted theory of dovclopmont. Not only are there differences between the
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views of scholars, "but one has to take into account the different values of societies, their differing institutions, the fact that the set of
preferences held by governments and planners are not necessarily those held by the populace, etc.. In the African context, development factors are
■not identical to those of other equally underdeveloped areas, and a great
^diversity is found- in the attitudes and values of different .polities. ■■
We will then perforce try to extract or define a common core of conepts, objectives and values representing a minimal consensus among different African countries and groups in order to arrive at k commonly usable set ^/
of socio-economic indicators.
6, Indicators can'be classified according to their quantiative nature,
the type of variable measured or their final use. Quantitatively indicators are either basic statistics or functions of statistics, like ratios,
percentages and indexes. As to variable type, o. distinction may be drawn
between input indicators, based on measurement of the resources used toreach a certain objective, like energy consumption per head, or hospital beds per 1,000 population; or output indicators, like life expectancy or the number of graduates, based' on the measurement of the results .reached in a given sector. In fact the difference between output and input ■ ' indicators is not rigid, and many indicators arc cither one or the other
depending on the point of view'of the user,7, As for use, it is possible to differentiate between descriptive indicators, used to diagnose a certain situation, normative indicators, used to express some development or planning objectives, and analytical indicators, used to study the relations between development variables.
Among descriptive indicators, a distinction can be made between those used to describe structures and changes in structures, and short-term indicators whose main application is in the economic field to r.ioasure short-term
changes in trends and if possible to give warning of them. One example * of a short-term indicator is the Dow Jones index of the New York Stock Exchange. In practice,however, the distinctions are again of less than major, importance, as the same indicators can be used for various purposes'^' • though analytical indicators need to be of much higher quality than the
other*. .
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8. ■ A more fiina.amental classification is between indicators systems, and composite or synthetic indicatdrs. 'The latter "typ° of indicator has .been -the subject of considerable research, as a single measure which could be ■ used to make judgements on th'e development status of'a country and conseG/ucntly
to make comparisons between countries, would be extremely practical. As .it will be indicated in the following, research on composite indicators has been" up to now loss than successful,, and the emphasis seems to be on ■ ■ - indicators systems. Since the phenomenon to be measured by indicators, is in itself a "complex one not reducible to a single variable,' and since the.
phenomenon is structured with definite relationships between the many variables it determines, a system of indicators appear to be most adequate
solution.
9- While a concept of development is necessary in order to define indicators, hy specifying the variables to bo measured, their'ultimate choice vail depend on how well particular statistics or functions of a statistics reflect or represent the variables. For*each variable, it is necessary' to select the best measure, and among the different "systems possible, the ■'system containing the greatest amount "of information, for a certain size. To be useful, a system of indicators will necessarily be limited in size, both because of the difficulty of interpreting a large body of data and because the interrelations between development variables are such that after a certain point the addition of nev.' indicators will
not significantly increase the amount of information contained in. a given*..
system. Moreover, beyond a' certain size a system of indicators will not differ significantly"'from a system of statistics.
C, INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCE IN INDICATOR DEVELOPMENT "
10. The pioneer .in indicators research has been the United Nations Research Institute for Social Development (UNRISD), which"started'in the 1960s by developing a level-of^living Index. This was a composite index- ' intended to give.a synthetic measure of the-"level of satisfaction of the"
needs of the .population as measured by the flow of goods and services".
However, it suffered from a lack of data on essential components, and from"
the fact that it was a weighted index of non-commensurable elements. Although
in the economic field it is legitimate to value all goods .and services at
market prices, this is no longer permissible when wo try to give a common
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evaluation of both economic and non-economic goods. This problem of proper weight ing of composite indexes 'has .affected most studies done in this' field, and no proper
• solution has been found. Further research by.UNRISD.concentrated on the'development
• of an indicator data base, and a method of scaling based on "correspondence points"
; was developed. Basically the method involves the establishment of relations"between development variables while avoiding the classic least-squares method with its ■ : implicit assumptions concerning the'probability distribution of variables, whichi -are rarely confirmed in developing countries, in lieu of 'this method, median.lines
minimizing absolute deviations from all variables are defined, and from this cor respondence points are determined'on a common scale for all the variables, so that a development profile can be drawn for a country and comparisons made between situations at different epochs.' -However, the work in UNRISD is'still mainly
oriented towards intercountry comparison, rather than planning needs at the national
level.
11. Other institutions have tried to develop composite development indexes. In.
1975 a study of 140 countries was prepared for the Economic, and Social Council, ■■■- using 7 indicators, to rank the countries according to their level of development.
The-British Overseas Development .Council developed a Physical Quality of Life Index . (FQLI) in which equal weight was given to three simple indicators: 'life expectancy,
infant mortality and literacy. , This index was used to judge development performance m-"basic needs" perspective. A similar study was prepared for OECD in 1973, relat- ring the GNPs'of 82 developing countries to six indicators.
12. UNESCO has been another focal point in indicator research, with the main
emphasis on social indicators and the use of indicators in planning. UNESCO has also researched extensively on tha problems associated with criteria for indicator
selection and indicators in specific areas, most notably the participation of
woman in development.
13. as- was mentioned earlier, UNRISD has oriented its research towards the develop ment of systems of-*indicators and the creation of a data bank of indicators- This orientation c'nvetailc with work in the United Nations secretariat to develop a rationally organized system of demographic and other social statistics, from which
a-set .of indicators can be obtained:'
14. One conclusion which can be drawn from international experience is that . • composite indicators are not a practical proposition.- and that efforts. should rather be focused on indicators systems. As already been pointed out, the problem of
finding proper weights for a composite indicator combining sub-indicators of both
economic and social variables has not been satisfactorily solved. Research to date
has also.brought to light interesting relations between development variables and
made a substantial contribution to the establishment of indicator lists which can
be used as a starting point for individual countries' own indicator systems
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15. From the methodological point of view, the research conducted at the inter
national level has led to the definition of important selection criteria or procedures
for-indicators. "Of course, practical work has to rely on a large extent.on intuitive
methods of,selection based on tKe.social scientists1 s. knowledge of the variables he - is measuring and the quality of the statistics at, his disposal. In real/situations, this knowledge remains the decisive factor^ However, quantitative methods, also exist, and have proved extremely efficient in-identifying indicators. Two important concepts have been defined, one being the validity of indicators, the. other the discriminative power of.indicators. An indicator is valid if it "measures what it is intended-to measure11;, 2/ this being meant both in the" statistical and conceptaal senses. The discriminant-power of an indicator relates to whether the indicator "effectively
■ distinguishes between. ..:;.. different levels of development- and is meaningfully related "to (correlated with) other indicators of development"3/. For systems of indicators, an important criteria is whether a given indicator adds to the informa
tion contained in the indicators already chosen. " .-,'■■..
16. Correlation': analysis has proven to-be the main tool of indicator selection.
This is quite natural sincergood indicators of the same phenomenon 'should1 be mutually correlated. This has been"confirmed by; experience showing high Average-correlation ' between "good" indicators'.- In addition to correlation analysis/ other analytical
tools are available, like factor analysis.- Research is being pursued for selection -criteria for indicators systems, with attempts'at measuring the information content
of an indicator systems together with criteria for selecting an optimal list of
indicators. ..-.■■■ . ■ ■ -: . . "... ■..: =
r " ... D- INDICATOR SELECTION IN AFRICAN CONDITIONS,
17. we have stated that indicator selection and use depend on a conceptual framework enabling us to specify the variables to be measured. For Africa, this will entail establishing.which development variables are specific to. African conditions, and'which one should^enjoy special emphasis in comparison to"the situation in other regions.
It is beyond'the scope of this paper to'.embark on a theory of development, in Africa, and we will limit ourselves to" what appears to be-generally.agreed among African countries, as gauged from the development plans and other policy statements' issued by African governments, and the many resolutions adopted by these Governments at meetings organized by OAU and ECA. ^ It is clear .that African Governments agree in regarding development as implying the increase of the present low levels of income to levels comparable to those enjoyed by industrialized countries, the modernization of the production system, and an increase in welfare (that is., an improvement of health conditions and the spread of modern education to the mass of the population) Recently, equity in the'distribution of development benefits has come to"figure prominently in develppment targets, though there is no clear consensus on what is meant, for.example, by a fair distribution of income. In .the Lagos-Plan of "Action, adopted by African countries for thoir development in the 1980s, the broad objectives enumerated above have been augmented by new elements, among both factors and objectives
of development.V . l'^thodological_Problems_in_Selection_and_Analysis of Socio=economic Development
*^±S2tors" (Geneva, United Nations Research Instltute'foVsocial Developmint7'l979J"7~
3/ Ibid.
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18. As was pointed cut in the introduction, development cannot be reduced to a
simple saving-investment process; social, political and cultural factors arc involved.
It is undeniable, however, that the raising of productivity is the core process, ?id one which is itself dependent on the acquisition and spread of modem science anc technology. This point of view is clearly expressed in the Lagos Plan of Action, with its strong emphasis on the development of manpower resources and'in particular .on the building up of indigenous institutions for training, project formulation, research and technology promotion. Science and technology are, in the Lagos Plan , of Action, priority sectors, African Governments are called upon to.set<up specific
institutions and pursue systematic policies in order to organize ana exoand the mastering of modern technology by Africans as an integral part of development.
19. Another specific development factor which appears in the Laces Plan is regional co-operation. The small size of the African economies is a major"obstacle to thei- development, because they cannot exploit the benefits of economies of seal- and
because each small state has a weak bargaining power. This can bo overcome by breaking u:
the barriers between African countries, from the physical barriers of geography an«c poor communications to the monetary and trade regulations and systems barriers'which tend to isolate African markets from one another. The Lagos Plan of Action qives high priority_to the elimination of those obstacles, and introduces a new dimension in the objective of regional co-operation by linking it to the other fundamental objective of self-reliance: regional co-operation is seen as an instrument for
achieving "collective, self-reliance".
20 The concept of self-reliance has not as vc-t receive,: an explicit and clear definition, and may -not be in fact amenable to definition, but it seems evident that
K^nlt1^ ^^ ** ^"h ThG Centrai iSSU° horo is thr;t development'must
be the result of Africans' own efforts, and not r.n uxtamally dominated process.
Thus sel.-r.eliance cannot be reduce,! to tho problem of indigonization of capital ard manpower but goes reyond anc concerns the mastery by Africans of the development
process in their own countries. ^tupneni:
21 The availability of statistics is another key consideration, as this will determine the actual rang* of possible indicators. In Africa, verv sorinus limita tions arc encountered in this respect. As far as population statistics are concerned understood here as including net only demographic but also manpower statistics
have a well C°""f?rf^e offorts °* ** last 2° ****** *ost African countries : o not
have a well-established census system, and civil, registration systems do not nn
outside the main towns. As a consequence it is not'oossible to^btain reliablfa comparable statistics for long periods on such fundamental data as birth-ra^ s d
rates or life expectancy. Aco distribution statistic, are shaky. .^^though the Unes are well established it is not possible to roach a high deore^of "ecisi'n
and base calculations for example., on single years. In some oasis, ,von ■ of the population is known only with , wide margin of error, which mav he as hi"
20 per cent. For- manpower, there ar, difficulties in delineating the boun'ri's of
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22. One deficiency of economic statistics is the absence of reliable data on the non-monetized or non-orqanizoc! sector of the economy. This sector includes not only the bulk of agriculture,- but also traditional activities associated with agriculture in the countryside and small-scale crafts, trade and services in the urban areas.
In some countries.- non-recorded trade may b<~ equivalent to as much as 50 per cent of recorded trada. The net result is that GOP statistics r.ot only underestimate the real level of economic activity, hut also give a distorcocl picture of its structure and its growth rates, since the valuation of a large part of production is faulty.
23. In the social field, most African countries have detailed information on health and education, in terms of resources allocated, an I output obtained, but data are extremely poor for income distribution and the distribution of economic assess.
24. .In addition to criteria concerning the quality of statistical series and their acceptability as indicators, the following considerations appear to have an import ant role . in indicator selection - in Africa •.
(a) availability, TIvj information needed to build indicators nay simply be absent., or its quality too poor. . In view of the constraints of horv.ouneity and quality, it may be that only very simple indicators arc- possible. However,
experience shows that in ine.ny artjas recourse can bo made to estimation procedures with reasonably good rosults.
(b) Qualitativejudgement. Since many statistics are of poor quality, or simply do not exist at the level of disaggreg;ation required, recourse to the informed judgement of social scientists may play a bigger role than purely quant itative techniques such as multivariate ;nothoc!s.
(c) Cost. Because of limited resources, some indicators rr.ay be excluded because of the high cost of identifying them. For example:, school health inspec- . tion records can reveal interesting data on the evolution through time of some indicators like the average weight of pupils, at least for major towns in some
African countries, but resources may bo unavailable or the project may be- too costly in relation to the expected benefit.
(d) Development perspectives. Some indicators,- though not available at present may become ~n v\5ITa5rd" "in "tTicPnoar future,- and systems of indicators should therefore be desic.no:! with a mind to future needs and possibilities. Statistical programmes for example,- should be developed bearing in mind data requirements fcr indicators.
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E. THE USE OF INDICATORS IN DEVELOPMENT PLANNING
25
It is not possible to give a complete and detailed account of the use of
es in African planning, but it is clear that when indicators have been used,
have been used in'an unsystematic and haphazard manner A good example «
^enc:^ n enega" over a long period. Study of the plans' shows that no attempt has been made to develop a set of indicators for planning in Senegal, despite th« fact that Senegalese planners were remarkable for their very early concern for social issues, in particular the issue of income distribution between rural and "ban people.
Extensive and sophisticated use has been made of economic anc\ S°T .™th for over-all but the only indicator of development as such has been the rate of growth for over all
GDP and its main sectoral components. The rate of growth has been considered the
Zt important target of the plans, and at the same time ^>ceyf indicator^of success
or failure. Plan implementation,has mostly been measured in financial terms, jy
comparing actual expenditure of planned expenditure. In the social field no syste . matic attempt has been made to define plan targets in terms of such indicators as the school enrolment ratio or the availability of doctors and other medical personnel ,nd facilities, However, in the fourth plan, indicators have been used to measure ■ disparities between regions, in connexion with efforts to reduce them. These indi-
cators are;
(a) Total population;
(b) Population density;
(c) Rate of natural increase of the population;
(d) Number of inhabitants per hospital bed;
(e) Number of inhabitants per doctor;
(f) School enrolment ratio; ■ . -, _
(g) Gross regional product;
(h) Urbanization rate; ■ ;
(i) Area.
26. The plan aims at reducing the very wide disparities revealed by the indicators, which show that GDP per head in some regions is 10 times the level in others. For
nutrition, a set of indicators has been used to describe the. food situation for the year 1974, giving data for the whole of Senegal broken down into different rural and
urban areas. The indicators are:
(a) Population
(b) Per capita consumption of cereals;
(c) Per'capita daily consumption of principal nutrients;
(d) " Per'capitS consumption of sugar and cooking oil.
27 The indicators have been used in the formulation of policies, but it is difficult tn relate the actual programmes to the indicators, since no targets have been established on the basis of the indicators; all thfc programmes and pro3ects
being expressed in financial terms.
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28. Thus scant use has been made of indicators in African planning. Although ^ situation is justified in large measure by the poor data base and the limited resources at the disposal'of the planners, much more can be done with the existing data.
Generally-speaking, indicator use in Africa will not diverge significantly from the norm in other regions, and will concern basically;
(a) The analysis of situations in order to evaluate socio-economic trends; • (b)- 'The'expression of planning and policy targets in a form allowing' their
•- use-as triggers or warning systems)
.. (c)- The development of socio-economic models to assist policy-makers and shed light on the operation of socio-uconomic variables. In this respect;
however, the use of indicators will remain more limited in Africa than in other-regions better endowed with planning resources
29.' -In the evaluation of socio-economic trends, indicators can be used, as "tools for short-term-evaluation or prediction, or for,the assessment of changes in socio-economic structures. Short-term indicators can be very effective in indicating and even warning of short-term changes in economic activity, and can. therefore serve as tools for current economic amangement. and net necessarily for planning only. Whereas synthetic indica tors combining social and economic measurements are placiued by unsolvable weighting problems, there are no such problems for.economic synthetic indexes. These indicators are basically proxy measures of GDP, and are used because it is impossible to1 obtain GDP statistics for sufficiently short periods or because of the delays necessary for GDP statistics to be prepared. In industrialized countries, a good examples of such
indicators is of the Index of Leading Indicators of the United S.tates Department of
Commerce. In the Ivory Coast, the Ministry of Finance publishes a quarterly synthetic index of economic activity based on 1974=100. The index combines various sectoral indexes: an index of industrial activity,, coffee and cocoa sales, commercial sales, construction activity (as reflected in short-term bank credits), port activities (based on goods handled), consumption of electricity and petroleum products, householdconsumption, etc. This index has performed remarkably well, and its existence.proves that other African countries could build similar indicators with the available
statistics.
30. In tha evaluation of structural changes, indicators arc- particularly suited.to highlighting and emphasizing regional disparities, and in this respect the breakdown of national indicators into territorial indicators at the lowest■feasible administrative
level will provide a very valuable tool for planning, especially regional planning.
Experiments have already been carried out in this field, and UNRISD and UNESCO are
conducting research on the development of indicators at ttvo local level. IDEP is
^working on regional indicators emphasizing income and development disparities within Nntries between "coastal11 and "interior" nreas. Tho set of indicators used for local
will to a large extent overlap with the national set, but new specific indica te [needed.
\N
of indicators for plan'targeting is particularly appropriate since the
■hosen as the- best measures of development variables which are directly
■'ectives. Since indicators include not only monetary measures but
~ of economic variables, as well as measurements of social variables, setting plan targets will make it possible to take into account
'"pm.ent variables than the simple use of national account
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F. MAIN CATEGORIES OF INDICATORS
32. ' Among development variables, we can distinguish between aspects of ..development
(viewed as a spe'eific target situation) and factors of developemnt (viewed as process).
There is broad agreement'that development means a -certain level of income, essential ly the income now reached by industrialized countries or an equivalent income, a certain industrial structure-and certain level of- education and welfare. The.main development 'factors a'rfi human resources, capital and.-natural resources. From our previous discussion; it can be seen that in the African context special emphasis must be-given to the issue of human-resources as'regards the_mastery of modern
technology, self-reliance and regional co-operation, which are considered to be both targets and factors of development in Africa. On this basis, we may-propose for use in planning the following categories of indicators, which are thought to take
account of both aspects of development and development factors and to include the development variables'of greatest-significance in Africa:
■ (a) Human resources; .. .. , ;
. . . (b) Modernization;
. .. (c) . Income and economic growth; .
.(d). Self-reliance; .. ■ ;
(e) . African co-operation: ■ .. . .-. _ - - ;-
. , (f) , Health; ■...-...". . "
.. (g) . Welfare. . ; .■ . ..:1 ■■. . . '
33. These categories are.net definitive, and are presented here only as a guide for discussion. Substantial changes, may be dictated'by further research. The indicators included,have been chosen mainly onfthe grounds of present availability
of data,, but a mor.e .'future-oriented approach, would certainly demand more complex
indicators. Because ,of the-importance of distributional uses,' each category.of indicators should,.be disaggravated according, to- -. residence, area, income, groups and social qroup. For each category, the types of indicator to be included1, the source of data and the problems involved, will be as follows:34. Human resources. This category of..indicators will not only measure manpower in
the usual terms Tpercentage of the active population, for example) but will go further
and attempt at least-rough measurements of.the stock of "trained manpower in basic science and technology. This will pf course not be easy to achieve because of the .shortage of .data, but it is hoped that more thorough exploitation of existing t'educational statistics could make a "significant contribution. For example, in most African countries, there are long series of data on persons completing the different educational levels which could be combined to give estimates of the number of trained personnel.' An^important dimension vf human resources, local entrepreneurship,.can be .approached through the distribution of local entreprsneurship by economic branch.
35. Income and:economic_growth.. Indicators will measure the level of income and the rate of growth of income. The measurement will be effected first by using GDP statistics, but non-monetary measures will also be used to avoid the biases of GDP statistics and relate income to basic needs like food. There are no difficult conceptual problems with this category of indicators, but the availability of basic statistics is crucial.
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36. Modernization. Development entails many changes, among them changes in tschniques~with"the spread of modern technology, changes in.the structure of pro duction with industrialization, changes in the distribution of the labour force as the-depuration shifts away from traditional sectors to industry and related services, and changes in the social structure and even in cultural attitudes. The indicators _ 'will1 measure the changes in production and the labour force and will attempt-to
measure the increased recourse to modern production techniques. -This latter point is the-most difficult to achieve, though indicators of technical change would be the most efficient indicators of development. A subcategory of indicators will measure the'participation of women and younp people in development, since this is a most important element of social change.
37. ■ Self-reliance. We have interpreted self-reliance as control by Africans of socio-economic processes in-:their own countries rather than the building of closed economies. Consequently, the indicators will measure how far capital and key pro
fessions and traces are controlled by foreigners. Since in African economies it
is above all the modern sector and "modern" professions which are controlled by expatriate agents, and since it is from these areas that modernization is initiated and controlled, the indicators will be limited to depicting the situation there.Information necessary to calculate the indicators is available in tax records giving the distribution of the equity of registered companies; from these records it is also generally possible to obtain fairly accurate data on the numbers of expatriate professionals and those occupying managerial positions. There will be other types of indicators measuring self-reliance from the point of view of
, dependence on foreign resources for financing total expenditure and capital formation. It is quite clear that a very large deficit on current account is not sustainable without larqe amounts of foreign resources, and that self-reliance has not "much, me'aning in such a case. Likewise, it is preferable for a country to
finance its capital formation itself, though even here recourse to foreign resources is not easily interpreted in self-reliance terms. After all, high foreign invest ment can make a basic contribution to the building of a country,1.s infrastructure and productive capital bass, and therefore to its long-term independence.
38. ' African co-operation. Of the many forms of co-operation, these of interest relate"to"tradeT"financial flows- manpwer =ind other human flows, as well as joint 'undertakings and"joint funding of projects. At present, because of the shortage
of data, it will be possible to measure -inly mutual trade between African countries and movements of. people, and even then very imperfectly because a large proportion
of" intra-African trade takes place outside official channels. It would be ve'ry
useful to construct an indicator of co-operation which could combine partial indicators on the share of intra-African trade in total flows, the degree of openness of frontiers, the inter-convertibility of currencies, etc., but this ..appears to.be quits difficult and to require further research. Consequently, forthe time being, intra-African co-operation will be measured using basically indicators, of mutual trade and movements of people.
Pace 13
39. L^^t)' T^° ^est indicators nrt -nttput indicators,- mmoly life expectancy, the over-all mortality rate and the nortality rates for infants -ma children. These latter rates arc particularly important in Africa, where -a large proportion of deaths occur in the first five yesrs of lif,:. These indicators are, moreover, highly cor-
* related v/ith other development indicators,- notably GDP per head, since mortality depends on a whole range- i>f. factors determined by the level of development. The difficulty, however, is to obtain reliable- and current measures of these indicators, inevitably "use will have to be made of estimates. At the same time,- indicators of the effort made by society to promote health are also useful for planning purposes to check on plan implementstion.
40. We h.?.vo not included short-term indicators in the .Oyjvo because of thoir special character. Despite the gaps in statistical knowledge in Africa, short-term indicators are available in sufficient quantity to give an adequate picture of economic trends.
as the example of the Ivory C;ast demonstrates. Among the statistical series avail able the best ap'pear t---- ba those concerning the marketing of crops, commercial energy consumption, cement consumption, the handling of goods by ports, exports, imports, bank credits, the money supply, import taxes and consumer prices. These series can be
combined in a fairly straight forward manner by using kmwn statistical techniques to obtain good synthetic indicators of economic activity which can give early and reliable estimations of GDP growth and thus be very useful for policy-makers. Each of the individual statistical series is an irr..:.-crtant indicator of c. sector or a variable, as is the case for import taxes, which in Africa ar-;; very sensitive indicators of government revenue.
G. INDICATOR DATA EAUK
41. Indicators naturally find their place in a statistical c!=ita bank system, at the
"higher" level of the data bank,- since in order to be useful indicators will have to
satisfy more stringent quality standards than ordinary current statistics, with the
current statistics themselves forming the lower level. Noteworthy in this respect isthe ECA PADIS-STAT project, which is designed to create a system of regional and national
data banks, with a central data bank in Addis Ababa. In its present conception, itis proposed that the central data bank should b« divided int.:.' three levels, the fir-:;t
covering country profiles, the second current country statistics and the third statistics corrected so as tc be homogeneous and comparable; it is horse-:"* that the indica
tors will be situated at this third level.
H. RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS
42. A list of possible indicators for the areas defined above is annexed, but only
as a suggested basis for discussion. What If. needed is for national planning organizations and other institutions active in development work and, regionally, ECA, TD'^P -.ncl
similar institutions, to embark on research t/>;(a) Identify development variables of interest in Africa, going beyond what is expressed in present development plans and at meetings of government
officials;(b) Develop indicator systems appropriate to the needs of African planning;
(c) Develoo new uses of the available statistical information for the construc
tion of indicators,-
(d) Design statistical programmes in crder to obtain the information needed
for indicators.
E/ECA/SERPD/INDIC/3
Pc\ne 14
43. The systems of indicators ad.Xyted in each country should b;_- ir.ir.i'o comparabl;
to each oth^r tc facilitate the comparative analysis of African development. It is of qreat inportr.ncc- to have a coinmon sot r.-f basic indicators with which f:
yaugo the development situation in Kzrican countries ,■ nn-C thoroi■'</ tc elucidate common problems and plan further co-GL'eratir.r,. EGA's rol.c in this respect d';uid be to draw up a short list of indicators for nlannin*-; in Africa, which national planning offices could use as a core around which t-.-' build thedr own svsterns.
E/ECA/SERPD/INDIC/"3
ANNEX I .-■..•■ Annex I
illustrative list_of_Inuicators I. Human resources
1. Rate of literacy
2. Percentage of literate wage earners
3. Proportion of managers, professionals, scientific and research personnel in labour force
4. Number of persons completing different levels and types of education in the past .10 years as a proportion of the labour force
5. Newspaper circulation per 1,000 population
6. Enrolment ratios at different levels for all students and pupils and by sex
7. Student/teacher and pupil/teacher ratios
8. Expenditure on education as a proportion of GDP.
II. Income and 2conomic_qrowth
1. GDP per head
2. Commercial energy consumption per head 3. Cereal and root crop production per head 4. Manufacturing production per head ' 5. Exports/imports per head
6. GDP growth rate (with sectoral rates)
:. ■ i . •
III. Modernization . -
1. Share of agriculture in. GDP 2. Share of manufacturing in GDP
3. Agricultural labour force as a proportion of the total labour force 4. Proportion of wage earners in labour force
5. Share of government and public enterprises in GDP 6. Fertilizer use 'per unit of cultivated area
7. Proportion of commercial and industrial establishments using electricity
8. Non-marketed production as a proportion of GDP 9. Motor vehicles per household
10. Telephones per household
11. Proportion of women in agricultural labour force 12. Proportion of /'omen among wage earners
13. Proportion of women among civil servants 14. Proportion of girls in school enrolment.
IV. Self-reliance
1. Proportion of capital of firms with assets over 10 dollars owned by nationals
2. Percentage of nationals among researches, managers, professionsls and teachers
3. Deficit in goods and services as a proportion of GDP 4. Foreign capital flows as a proportion of GDP
5. National savings as a proportion of capital formation 6. Cereal imports per head.
E/ECA/SERPD/INDIC/3 Annex I
Page 2
v.
VI
1. Intra-African trade as a proportion of total trade
2. Travellers from/to other African countries as a proportion of total travellers
3. African foreigners as a proportion of total population
4. Value added in joint ventures as a proportion of total value added in the modern sector._
1. Life expectancy 2. Total mortality rate 3. Infant mortality rate 4. Child mortality rate
5. Hospital births as a proportion of total births
6. Number of coses of most important diseases as a proportion of total illnesses
7. Total calorie intake per head 8. Total protein intake per haad
9. Proportion of population with access to safe water 10. Hospital beds per 1,000 persons
11. Medical personnel per 10,000 persons 12. Health expenditure as o. proportion of GDP
13. Proportion of population living within 10 km of a health centre.
VII. Welfare
1. Total calorie intake per head 2. Total protein intake per head
3. Proportion of the population with access to safe water 4. Proportion of the population with access to electric light 5. Proportion-of population with calorie intake below norm 6. Proportion of population with protein intake below norm
7. Ratio of income of the richest 5 per cent to the income of the poorest 20 per cent
8. Minimum wage/average wage as a proportion of GDP per head/GDP per hoad in agriculture.
VIII. Short-term_indicators
1. Crops marketed
2. Electricity consumed/produced 3. Petroleum products consumed 4. Cement, production and/or imports
5. Goods carried (various modes of transport) 6. Exports (by main products)
7. Imports (by main products) 8. Consumer price index 9. Bank credits
10. Money supply 11. Import taxes 12. Synthetic index
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6; 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12
(1)(2) 1.0000 0.36691.0000 0.6334-0.1775 0.33-70.1023 0.64740.2200 -0.0499-0.3050 0.4884-0.1976 0.30590.1938 0.S2SG0.7006 0.3349-0.1925 0.661S-01.253 O.52.c3-0.3242 Source:WorldDevelopment (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
(3) 1. 0. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 r\
0000 3285 4075 3987 9226 0606 3497 4237 9307 7256
ANNEXII SOMEINDICATORCROSS-CORRELATIONSFORDEVELOPINGAFRICANCOUNTRIES (4) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Report1981, 1979r-ipinUSdollars Populationin1979 GDPpelneadin1979inUSdollars Adultliteracy(percentage) Lifeexpectancy(years)
0000 7357 4393 3501 2845 3493 1276 4320 .1283
(5) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (Washington Foodproductionindex(1977-1979/1969-1971)
.0000 .2490 .3895 .5006 .6382 .2633 .5540 .3185
(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
0000 37081.0000 08460.00611.0000 07260.24430.35901.0000 16170.51230.19940.15681.000 .42590.8426-0.02420.47700.35191.0000 .19690.64080.13730.30320.16090.7144 ,WorldBank,1981). (7) (8) (9) (10) (ID (12)
GrowthofGD?(1960-1970) GrowthofGDP(1970-1979) GDPin1970inUSdollars(EGAStatisticsDivision) Growthofpopulation(1970-1979) Commercialenergyconsumedperhead(kilogramsof coalequivalent),1979 Growthofcommercialenergy(1974-1979)
• (12) ].0000 tr) O Cfi 73 O 3H (T)D O H\
EN ;rw IRB rrnr>.IK :ho }PH MCO KPH MPH DPG GRI ."■VlNU IF5 ORT OCT iGRI 1ANU .IFE iORT ~\C\C"T Source:
PDEN 1.0000 -0.0957 0.0634 0.1850 -0.0358 -0.1626 -0.0115 —01ii07 -0.1683 0.0704 -:;..;330 0.3305 C.2201 -0.2106 -0.1662 i\GRI 1.0000 -0.2485 -0.4371 0.4429 0.4667
PGRW 1.0000 C.0'163 0.3969 O.3034 0.2265 0.2762 u.2170 0.1531 0.2235 -o.li:-7 -L.0902 0.5572 -0.5614 -0.^915 MAMU 1.0000 0.1444 -0.1870 0.292 ECAsecretariat
PURB 1.0000 0.2631 0.5869 0.3989 0.6249 0.3620 0.4732 0.3876 -0.7480 0.1474 0.5631 -0.5755 -0.6138 LIFE 1.0000 -1.9781 -0.6184 calculations
LITR 1.0000 0.4357 0.2760 0.3940 0.2557 0.3048 0.4067 -0.2418 0.1074 0.5964 -0.6269 -0.3631 MORT 0.6582 - i
INDICATOR SCHO 1.0000 0.3979 0.4896 0.3657 0.433-1 0.3975 -0.5151 -0.0343 0.o48^ -O.b861 -0.5642 DOCT 1.0000
ANNEXIII CROSS-CORRELATIONS GDPH 1.0000 0.9196 0.0963 0.9302 0.4505 -0.4748 -0.2579 j«.j./~j' -0.3620 -0.2811
INDEVELOPING SECONDSAMPLE) ENCO 1.0000 0.9051 0.9456 0.5107 -0.6498 ■-0.1012 0.5915 -0.5729 -0.4514
AFRICA __EXFHIHPH 1.0000 0.96901 0.40440 -0.4481-0 _-1.2603-0 0.3529.0 -O.3260-0 -0.2486-T
.0000 .5037 .5462 .2607 .4232 .3843 .34S7
GDPG 1.0000 -0.4373 0.055? 0.4674 --1.3991 -0.2469 > 3 3 X H H
• * P] n ra n3 D \, H a H o CO i
E/ECA/SERPD/IMDIC/3 Annex III
Page 2
PDEN: Population/cultivated land, 1979 (FAO)
PGRW: Population growth, 1970-1980 (ECA)PURS- Urban population as a percentage of the total population 1980 (Patterns of Urban and Rural Population Growth (United Nations publication, Sales Ho. E.79.XIII.9)
LITR: Percentage of adults who are literate, 1975-1976 (World Bank)
SCHO: Primary enrolment rates, 1975 (World Bank) GDPH: GDP per head in dollars, 1970 (ECA)
ENCO- Commercial energy consumed per head (Kilograms of coal equivalent), 1978 (World Energy Supplies 1973-1973, Statistical Papers, series J, No. 22 (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.79, XVIII.13))
EXPH: Exports per head in dollars, 1979 (ECA) IMPH: Imports per head in dollars, 1973 (ECA)
GDPG: GDP growth at constant 1970 prices, 1970-1979 (ECA) AGRI: Share cf agriculture in GDP, 1979 (ECA)
MANU: Share of manufacturing in GDF, 1979 (ECA)
LIFE: Life expectancy, 1975-198.0 (ECA)MORT: Mortality rate, 1975-1980 (ECA)
