f
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E/CN.14/STC/CS!S
FAO/Com/Africa/4ROffiO, 15 May 1962
COFFEE
Recent World Market Trends in Relation to Stabilization Problems and Policies
Note prepared by the Food and Agriculture Organization for the EOA Commodity
Stabilization Meeting> Lagos, 18 - 26 June 1962
21728h::
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COil'FEJ:T~'S
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pate RECErT TRENDS ••••••••••. ~.o.o• • • • ~~.o.o• • • •o.~• • • • • • • • • • o • • • • • • • • • 1
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liORLD COPF~_~E COl\ SUJ:','r=PTICN " " ~ Q 0 a .. v 0 0
PRODUCTLi..-E I-G:~D EXPOn~8 0 ~ < G 0 ~ < 0 ..
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THE LONGER TEm; OU'CLOOK. ••••••••••• , ••••••••• , • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 7
NAj'IONAL AIJD I: ,",",I,;,A'1ICJliAL STABILIZATION POLICIES •••••••••.•••••••• 8 National p o Li.ci o s •••••••••..••..•.•••••. '. • . .. • . • • •• • • .• • ••• •. • 8
Tnto rnat Lcna.L me a sru.r e a ,... 11
SOTaG :policy problems .. 0 0 ~ 0 e 0 .. G ~ ~ 0 e 0 ~ .. . . .. . . . .. . 12 ANNEX - 'I'ab Lc s ,
'I'ab Lo 1 - Coffuoc Tho ,;orld cof'f co posi~ion, 19')0-62
Table 2 CoffeG; Annual fluotuations in qi.ant lty , uni t value and value of' cof'f oo cxp o r-t s from solectod ccun tr-i os
1957-61
Table 3 - Cof'f ce ; Tho il,~portancG of oof'fco in to c e conom i.e a of selected proQucinb countrioDo
Table 4 - Cof'f'e c : .Ir.p or t troEdB, pro-"",r and 19)3-61.
Table
5
Coffee~ Net il;;pOl'ts of cof'f oc pOI' hoad in main consumingcountrios; pre-w~r ~nd 1953-56 to 1960-61.
Table 6 - CoffeG; Chaz.ge s in net imports of' roffco in rolation to changcs in retail coffce pricos, 1958-60.
Table 7 - Coffee:, Est u.ratod offcot of -,ax roduotions on not imports of coffeo into four Europo~n Countrios in 1956.
Tilble 8 - Coffeo; Production and Exports by main area, 1958-62.
Tablo 10- Cof'f'ccs Exports by main producing countries, 1953-62.
Table 11- Coffee' Exports by country of origin and CBstination,
1957-59·
Table
9
Coffee~ Production .ir. the principal IJrodu.cirlg ccuntr-Le s ,1953 -1962.
Tablo 12- Coffee; World consumptlon and production in 1958-60
and projections for 1970.
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COFY8E
RECEET TRENDS
The ou't stand i.rig cl.arigc in t'.__o wor-Ld cof'foo r;mrkat in recent yoars has been a shr.r-p cxp.in s ion in pr-o ducti,c n since 1957, mai.nLy 0.8 2.-
rcsult of' ho avy plc::.ntinCG lihich st~::,rtod in the eurlicsT 1950' s , Aversge wor-Ld coffoe output in tho last th~'e8 sco.son s (1959/60 - 1961/62) wes as much as 10' porccnt highGl' than tro CW01'QgO for 1952/3 - 1955/6 (see 'I'c.b'I,o 1). TJ1~ crop in 1959/60, at OV8r 4.6 million tons, IflJ.S [1 record, and. though proG.uction fell off Ln t.l,o f'o Ll oui.ng soason, duo mainly to the do,m-s"inc of tho t>lo-yoar cycle, another very high crop was harvested ir; 1961/62.
By c~ntrast, tho upward. trond inworlJ. consumption ofcoffeo - as meQsured by total not imports - has boon relativoly small. From 1950-52 to 1959-61, the upward. trond was only3! porcent per annum, compound. Most of tho incro~,se took place 8,1't8r 1951, at Lnul.a t.o d by tho fall in coffeo prices as woll as by rising inoomes in the main consumine countries. As lJ. rosult ·of tho drastic increase in world production, stocks havo 'groatly incroecsod in .spi to of the appr-ecauul.o expansion in con sump t.Lon , In 1951, stooks represented on ave rage rathor less than six ncnuho ' ocn sunpt.ton , by 1960 t.h cy had rison to some
14 - 15, months' concuupt.ion , while by Llitl-1961 they roprosentod about
It
years' conswJption.Though the lTc« York who Lo sn.I o prioe of Brazilian ooffeo has been virtually stQbilizec!. sinco 1959 (soo Table 1), thoro wecs a narked fall in prices of African robustQ coffoe in both 1959 and 1960. Tho New York averago spot pricGs for Ivory' Coast Superiour and. MalQgasy Superieur 1'011 by 24 poroont in 1959 nne!. by 11-13 porcent in 1960, Ethiopian Djincas 1'011 by 5 porcent, on avor:1Co, in 1960 compared with 1959, While tho,qorrospontling fall for Angolan ALlbriz WQS as high as 11 p e r corrt ,
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Pri.cc.e of, r.ri.Ld coff~os wc r c only warginQlly lower in 1960 thnn in '1959.Tho weeckoning in tho ooffeo Llarkot sinoe 1951 hQS had Qdverso reperoussions on the foroicn oxohecngo eQrnings fron ooffoe oxports for the nnjority of producinG countries (SCQ Table 2). Tho fluctuation
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Annual Coffeo Statistics, 1960, Pun-Ane r i.ce.n Coffoo Bur-ouu , 1961, pp. 14-15~---""
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in cxpo rt unit va Iuo s di f'f'cz-o d eoncidorably from ana country to ano thez , For the Ivory Coast .md T2.l1gan;yik::c, tl:e dvclino in unit values between
1957
end1960
"as morc th,m offsotby
incrofCsos in t:'G qU2.nti ty exportod, 80 t11CC t eXIlol't vn.Luo s ro00 over tho period, but in the othor mCtin producinG countries the offect of tho dacline in unitva Luo s oxcoodod. 'bhc Lnc.rca so in quanti tics cxpor-t od , Lat os t cva.LLa'b.Le statistics f'o r
1961
incliCCttG tLC\t in cpi.bo of conc f'ur-ther declinos in uni t va.Luo s (p:_:,rticulr~:rl;r for .Lmgolo,ll and Konyan 00:£'oe8),export Gn.rninCG of Afric.:~n p.ro duci ng countrius l-JOr0 gonorally higher them in the comparr.b l,o p.)riods of
1960,
"ith UCQndQ :J.S tho mci rr Gxcoption ~s n Tosult of Q contraction in the Qu~ntity exportod.These t'Luc'tuatLon s in cof fc o 8X:POl't GC1rnings nrG of' po..xticulcr importance to a nunbe r of producing co un t.r-Los , insofar as coffee roprosents Q large proportion of their tot,"l eX'Ports. ADong the African producing countrios, for oxample, the proportion of coffee in tot,"l exports ournincs in c rocent poriou Kas al@ost
50
porcent for the Ivory C02.st, Konvr. arid Ue2.:r:uc:, and as rruch c s 60 percent fOTEthiopia (S08 Tr.bIc
3).
Even this ucgrco of dependence on a. singlo export crop, coffcG, ~~s CXC08dcd in sarno Lo,tin AmcricQn countries,such a.s Colonoia. and El Salvador.
Nonetheless, tho pcreentugos of co~fee in totCtl na.tional income do not reflect tho full ioportQnco 'of tho oxport sootor in.
tho economic devolopment of tho producing cOillltries, which have genorally been ablo sinoe tho w:J.r to I'Lnan cc a. subat anti.c L part of thoir oxpcndi turos on iLlpClrtccl ~"pit"l e'luiIJr;;ent and consumption toods froLl tho procGods of thoir sc.les of co f'f'o c , Until recent
years, tho ouoYCtncy of the coffeo markot h,"s thus played Ctn inportant ro l o in tho oconomi c ero-,;th of the co f'f'oo pz-oduc.Lng countries. The f'ur-t.h oz- o corio rr.l c d ovc Lo pmcrit of 'the so countries depends to no sOD:II extant on mcc.sur-c a takc.n to stic.b.i.L'iac oxpox-c cc,rnings f'rora coffee.
,100,LD COFFEE COlIS1J14PTION.
Coffeo consunption h[1s rison SiLGO
1957
in,"11
tho m~in importing areas. Imports into the Lrri, tecl States, the largost mar-kot , rose by only4
porcent between1957-9
ffi1d1960-1,
but in Europe the inoreasesin imports were relatively wuch greatGr over this period, one sixth for the European Econorr:ic CODLlUni ty and Scanclino.via togothor acooun ted
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for c:.lmosi ono-half of the tot~l cxpc:.nsion in world coffco imports in this latest period, u slightly higher proportion than fron
1953-6
to1957-9.
The United States contributed only ono-fifth of the total expansion from 1957-9 to 1960-1, ~s ~c~inst nearly ono-third in the precoding period. In recent YoQ,J.'s, t"ho Lncr-oasca in cof'f'co imports into Eastern Europe arid' 'other W,:;storn Eu:ropo' ll2.VO aIao 08·::..n oLomorrts of Lnpoz-tance in tho rise in wo r Ld trQ.clc in co f'f'o o ,The relatively sno.lL cro1-rth in Uni kl, St;:ctcs irxports, in spi to of
tho rise in renl incomes and tLe fall in tL:: rcc"tail co f'f'e c prico in relation to the cost of living indox, is due essvntially to the high LeveL 01' co f'f'o o con sunpti.orr po r head in tho.t ccuntry wlri ch had r-eached
7.2
kgs., by tho 1;lid-1950's.:By contru st , the Unitscl Ki'lGdOl;l,.:c traditionO-lly toa drinkinG country, coffee consumption p0r head hc.sahown a re1a.tivoly ro..pid risv sincE: 1953-6 under tl:e stinulus of Lncr-eosed use of' soluble cof'f'e os , thOUS;2 it i;:; still one of the; Lowo at in Westorn Europe. A substanti~l increase in per caput coffce consuTJption also occurred in other Western European DOlliltries, particularly in Western Gormany, whoro tho 1960-1 avcr~go w~s some 40 porcent above tUG pro-war level. Even in Scandinavia, vh i ch has the highest po r caput coffoe consunption lovel in thu worlJ, thero hGd boGn further incro~sG in recent yoars (seG TQ.ble
5).
Coffee consumption in Ea.stc rn Etu'opc bof'o r o tho war was mostly in tho prosGnt area of East Goroa.ny ~nd in Czechoslovakia. The .U.S.S.R.
is a ton-drinking country c:,11,::' the market faT coil08 ha s be en a
relatively small one. Moreovor, thore has boen ~ substnntial dovelopnant of coffee substitutes in Eastern Europa pnrtly dUG to import limitations on coffee but which ncvor-tho'l o ss inclicc~tes 'i.. 1::',1'[;0 po t.on td a.I market for coffee. If the lovel of por caput iDpoTts cou.Ld be? raised to about
the pro-war uvorL1go, this wou~d imply ~n lnCr0~GO of some 70-75 thousand tons above their intake in 1960-1, or X'c.t.uer no.r-o them they took bofore the 'imr.
As already mont i oncd , t.hc rise in coffee con aunpti on wa s gcnr.r-a.lLy , stimulated by tho f'a I L in tIll; rut~il pri co sinco aup..Li.e s became plentiful • . The price fall to tho coriaumor- c:.iffor(;d considerably fro n co urrt ry to .
country, po.rtly oGcauso of th8 differont incidence of :j..mport d.uties and sales taxes and partly bo cc.uso of tl:'G difforent lovels of distributors' margins. For a selection of countries for which avornGe rGtail pTices in the
yoars21958
and 1960 0..ro ~VC',ilnblo, iliQ fall in the pri co in reIn. tion to tho gonorD.l co L"t of Ii vine indox vo..riod. fron 4 por ce nt inGreece to 21 porcent in Norwo..y 0nd the Unitod States (580 T~ble
6).
In the_aDe perioel, net eoffee imports into this (;roup ofeountries rose by proportions varying from 4 perc0nt for Pr~nce to 22 or 23 porcent for Italy anel West Germany. While increases in imports cannot be attributeel primarily to the declines in tho r~tail prioo of coffoe (tho rise in real income Lncorae was a dotcrIJininC f'ao-to r in moet countrios) it se ane that it must havo boon a n~jor influenco.
Taxation. In a number of courrtr i.c s , tho rctQil pric,,: of co r r co is inflated by substanti~l iwport uutioG or intcrn~l s~18s tnx8s. j~ investieation of the oxtent of such tax," tion in '" recent J'o:cr (1958) sho"etl tela t in four Europoan co unt.r-Lo s which c.r8 InTeG cof'fcc iIl1I)Ortcrs (Finlo..nc.l, F'rC'.nce, West Gerr,mny ,md Ltr.Ly ) import duties and special t:CXGS on coffee' accounted for onG-quartor or Dore of the ~vcr~ge rotnil prico (seG Tabla 7). It can be estioQt8Q tlwt the ccbolition of such duties tend taxes woul d. have resulted in Qn increase of some 60,000 tons of coffee by those four countries, "hile a further 5-10,000 tons more "euld prebably have been imported by other Western Europc~n countrics if thcy too abolished such ioposts.
Such calculations as those Qrc, ef course, purely hypothetical and ~re nocessarily based on ~ numbor of assUDptions • . In ~~rticular,
they asswce that the wholo of a tax rotluction is passed on to the consUDor, and that as the rotail priee falls oonSUDors will drink more coffeo rather than shifting te bettor quality coffoes "ithout necessQrily increasing their total consumption. Nonetheless, tho calculation is usoful as Lnd.i.cati ng (1 po s si b Lo ordor of L1r~gnitude of tho restraint on imports into Westorn Europe duo to tax"tion.
In July 1961, tho Oor..rri s si on of the European Econorri o Oor"muniitY proposed a reduction of tho oxt oz-nc.L tariff on coffeo to· 8 porcent :d , and" reductien of internal taxes by 50 porcent by January,1963 and
elilJinatien of such t"xes by JQnuary, 1965. While these latter reductions
should rosu'lt in c.pp.r-o c i.u'b ly higb.E::r con sunj.ti on Le vo Ls in Westorn Europe
in the future, tho formor would lessen the discrininQtor;;, effects of the commen tariff on exports from outside the Communi.ty.
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At tho boginning of' 195o, the average rnto of Lrrpo rt duty was 20 percent in Franco (othor t~1.Q11 on inports f'r on Fronch CLssociatod torri tories), 29 percent in West Germany and 10 porcont in rtcely.•
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PRODUCTION AND EXPORTS
The greater part of the expansion in wo[ld. coffeE! production since
1957-58
has taken p.lacc in La~in America. Comparing the soasonal C\vorctc;e of the crop years
1957/8 - 1958/9
with that for1959/60 - 1960/61,
the rise in Latin American output accounted. for over80
per cent of the increaso of some900
thousand metric tons in the world total (see crable8).
Most of the r-est of the increase ..'as in African production. On the other hand, African countries accounted for one-half the total expansion of230
thouB~nd tons in world coffee exports, whereas the share of Latin America in the expansion was on.ly two-fifths.The difference between output and exports has be8n relatively very small in African producing cGuntries, but in Latin America there is a gap, which has widened considerably since
1957.
The gap covers local consumption as well asstookbuilding, allowing about
0.5 - 0.6
million tons a year for local consumption, it appears that the increase in Latin knerican stocks must have been of the orderof 2 - ~ million tons over the four years
1938 -
61.By far the biggest increase in coffee production has been in Br~zil. From
1957-9
to1960-2,
Brazilian production rose by somG900
thousand tons (over6'
peroent), accounting for two-thirds of the toc a.L world Lncr-eaae in coffee
production in this period (Table
9).
The sharp jump in Brazilian output was due in Lar-, measure to the development of extensive new plantings in Parana, whioh has nowbeoome the largest coffee 'producing stJ,te in Brazil. [,!oreover, rehabilitation of the estates in the older producing areas prooeeded by using high-yielding varieties for replanting. Available information .i.ndi c a te s that lJ,rge new areas are still to'come into bearing, and that the number of trees reaching full maturity is still on the increase.
The rise in African p~bduction from
19)7-9
toi960-2
(one-seventh of the world increase) was mainly in th8 Ivory Coast, Ugc.uda and Angola; output in most other African producing countries showed littlG change. Th8 most importantsingle factor in the increase in African coffee output has been extensive new plantings since the early 1950IS. Govcr nmcnt extension sorvices nne. ucasure s to restriot new plantings to eo Le c to d 800dlings uave iJ.,180 been important in some countries •
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Most of the recent ris8 in coffeo exports from African producing countries came from the Ivory Coast, Ugand~ and Angol~, reflecting the increase in
production. Those three countries tog0ther exported abou'llOO thous~nd tons more in 1960-61 than in 1957-59 (an increase of some 80 percent), and accounted for one-third of tho tot 11 Lnor-eaae in v or-Ld coffee exports over this period
(sec Table 10). Most African producing countries have, in fact, achieved considerable incroases in exports since the early 1950's. By 1960-1, coffee exports from the Congo (Leopoldville) and Ugan-.:a 1wre more than double the
average for 1953-6, exports from the Ivory Coast wore higher by three~quartors,
and those from An3'ola were up by one-half. 'The prOIJOrticnate increases in coffee exports from tho main L~tin Am0ric~n producing countri~s were much lower over this period than for most Af'r-t.c.m countries. As already mentioned"
howevor, the 1i'cictJnt rise in Afrioo.n exports was gonerally offset by a fall in export prices •.
'The main mar koue for o.of'f'c.c are in the European Economic
Community and the Unitai States. In 1957-59, th0se two markets absorbed over 70 percent of Afric2.ll exports (see Tablo 11). Apccrt from tho Jric" factor, thero \have been c thc:r l~2a,sons for the incro,':tGo of ..!"~fricc..n Coffuo
~ports compared with those from Latin .~erica since the early 1950's. The first is that during the pc.ri od of short supplies which lasted until the mid- fifties, all coffees were in demand, thus creating a market for Robustas, particularly it)··t~le Uni.ted Stc-t.es. Secondly, coffee exported by the
as socLitcd t0rr'i.tori8S of mc t.r-cpo.li tan countries in UGstvrn Europe have gunerally enjcyed preferential import treatment in the latter countries (including impcrt quotas in France). Thus, thG growth in coffee consumption in Western Europe, no te d earlier, and paz-t Lcul ar-Ly that in France , 113.d c. greater proportional benoficial effect on African, than on Latin American, exports. On the other hand, the increase in (:0St German imports came mostly frcm Latin America, though arabica import~ from Kenya also bcnefitGd. A third reason is that the African robusta c of'f'c e s are c:..o~per and more c ae.iLy ac cc p't ab.l e vd.n the manufacture of soluble c of'f'e e , 1,hich c.ccounto d in 1960 for 19 percent of total conaumpta.on of grecn coffeo in the Unit0d States, as ag~inst only 12 percent in 1954-55.
Full country of Qostination detail is not av~il~ble for exports from the' main producing countries in 1960-61, but indications aro that the lower prices cf
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African cof'f'e e s stij:1Ul2..~~d pur cl.a so s in tho UnitGd· St::tHjS in parti cul ar , wh",rcas moot of the rise in Rrr.zilian exports "as to Ifdst Bur-open mar-kots
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TilE LONGER-TLRM OUTLOOK
The large imbal<.1llc0 tha,t haD arisou in th..:.- Horld coffee m:1rket in recent
~years forms thIS background to tIll;: Intern.1tioni11 CQffGG Agr-e ament , which was set up in September,
1959
and has since been renewed on an annual basis. ThewOl'kings of the .AgrGomcnt, arid -:'he ncod for a more long-tor:n appr-oach to the world coffee problem, rG~luir0 to be aases se d aga.ins t the longer-t8rm outlook for world consumption :1nd yroduction of COfIGe_
Consumption. A nunbur of studies of prob~ble cofio0 consumrtiCll levuls i~
1965
and 1970 havo recontly boen publish0d.
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ThesB.all indic2t0 that conSLwors reactproportionately rnor-o to .inc ome charigo a than to changos in tho world pr i.ce , at Least in the major -cofice mar kot s of North America and Hostern Europe. 'rhe ro1atively lower price olasticity is due in part to tho smal10r amplitude of fluctuations in r-ot a.i.I price s than in the world price, I'[hlch resul ts from tha addition of- ;:;)ark0ting-and distribution costs, Q,S \1'-.:11 as - in, some countries - of c:.uties and sales tillCGS.
~ssuninc
no
chango in the world price of coffee from present levels, but Lncro ase s in r-ca'l incomes in the various consunang areas, the projected levels of consUInJ;ltion have b0Ull 8stiDated Oll the b"l.sis of calculat.cd. or asswned income-elasticitios and of estimates of the rise in pO'pu.J..ation in the iiff.::;rent countries.
The rosults, s~~marised in Table 12, show that, on the assumptions rradG, total world consumption would. incr~~so oy
1.3 - 1.6
million tons(40 -
55 percent) between1958 - 60
an~1970.
Over half tho world increaSe 1S envisaged asoccurring in the 0conamically-advanced countries; of thoso, a rvlativoly high rate of Lncre ase wo·uld. occur Lr; the ~!editGrraneancountries of Europe and in
Brazilian c xpo.ct s to the U.S.S.R. u.~so inCrG3.S0d (from 8,000 tons in 1959 to 18,000 tons in 1960 and an 8stimatoc 10,000 tons in 1961) undor a barter
agJ:'80ment be:tWl'l8n the t"o countries,·
The World CoffG8 Economx, ~.
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Washington CJff~o Study Group;Trends in Europoan A~icultur8?nd thoir implic~tions ~or ether regions, EC!60 (
6)
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Japan, if r0al income risG 28 assumed.
A major unknown is tho future level of imports by Eastorn European countries, which reprvsent a l~ge pctential outlot for coffee. The low ustimate for 1970 implies little mora than a recovery to the average pre-war level of per caput imports, which was,in any caso, among th~ lowest in 3ur'ope; the higher Qstimate implies that thos0 countrios would adelpt their trading policies to achieve a greatur improvement in their por caput consumption levels.
Prcduction. As alroady mentioned, a larbo number of trees will be matcITing in Brazil in tho next five years at least, and the capacity of tho industry is likely to oontinue to grow, in spi to of current procral.ls for roducing the total number of trees. In view of the likelihood of tho world surplus position continuing during the 1960's, a roduction in the industry's capaoity in some producing countries seems unavoidable. The extent of such reduction, its distribution by oountry and the methods which would be appropriate to achieve it are all matters for early oonsideration by the intorestvd governments.
Meanwhile, it is not possible to make any reliable estic~tos of tge probable level of world coffee production by 1970. If productive oapacity 1£ left
unchocked world production by abcut 1970 would excoed world consumption by more than one million tons.
NATIONAL AND INTGRNATIOHAL STABILIlATION POLICIES National policies
In contrast to Latin Amerioa where tax~tion of coffee Gxports was almost
exclusively for revenue pur po so s , in the principal coffee growing oountries,in Africa a major objective of pOlioy sinoo the mid-1950's h~s beon to oven out the impact
of the world price cycle on the coffee g-r-owoz- by rmn.Lp'u.lat Lng' the price which the grower rGc0iv(.'Js. In thf;;l poriod up to:.) 1957, when coff'ee prices
had been rising, th8 pr-Lco s actually r-o coi.ve d b;'l 't.Lc grollor gc.nGrally rose much less than the wor-Ld price. Since 1957, with co f'f'o o prices rruch Lowo r , the price rocoived by crowers h~s, however, also ~~cl to be r~luced.
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In Kenya and Tanganyika, tho marketing of coffee is supervised by a Coffee Board, repres~ntingplanters and goverTh"ents. These Boards licence coffee dea10rs, dispose of the bulk of the coffee crop at auc- tions, ~nd undertake general sorvic88 such as the proQotion of researcho A similar Board exists in Uganda, but since the Coffeo Industry Ordinance of 1959, its responsibilities have been limited to mar ke t.Lng , Since that year, thero have also Gxistod a Coffee Advisory Council and an indepen- dont Price-Fixing Committee, which contrcls the price paid to grQwers.
The p u r ' p os c 'of ~price c crrtr - oIs has bG011 to oven out tLc prioes r - cc oi.ved
by farr:wrs; Bubcidy l)o.;y-L,,;;nts 1:~v0 c..1EO 'bo cn made to o.ssocio.tions of' .ilfricun ooffeo es'Towcrs out of Q, sr,ccic.l Cof'f'oc Pr-i co l~ssista.ncc F'\.ulcl.J
Sin.co 1958-59, no reove r , atber.pt s to ililpl'OV0 quaLi, ty have been made by fixing mini~um prices.
In the former French territories in Africa, CQissos do stabilisation (stabilization funds) have been in operation also for coffee. As in the case of the other commodity cais~es, tho primary objoctive of the coffee caisses is to reduce fluctuations in prices to producers, by means of operating reserve funds which in principle c..re to be maintained on a self-financinb revolving basis.
Their most important sources of income are (a) the refunds to them of parts of the local export taxes, ~/ and (b) export levies. Levies are realized generally in years of f~vorable prices only, except for exports to France and Algoria, which enjoy protection and receive prices guarantoedat a level higher than the export value equivalent of the domestic price to producers.
1/
The caisses thus obtain a levy on these exports, while exports to othor destinations may result in paymonts by the caissesc1/
~/ In the Ivory Coest, until the end of 1957, one-third of the revenue from the export tax on coffee was allotted to the Caisse, Since November 1960, the various coffee taxes, including tho oxport tax9 have been consolideted into ~ 'tax unique', of which the Caisso was enti tIed to 25 percent.
g/
During 1959/60 and 1960/61, exporters of coffee from the Ivory Coast to France and Algeria paid the Stabilization Fund an average levy of 15 CFA frs. per kg., while exporters to other dcstin~tionsreceived variable pr8~iaQ
11
The price receivod. in tho lccst two yercrs by the producers of the Franc Zone from exports to France and AlgGria has b8EHl about NF 1 per kg. above the world price on around 145,000 metric tons. It may, therefore, be estim~ted that relativG to world prices, the income transfer botwoen Fr~nce and tho coffee exporting countries of the Franc Zono Gmounted to N]' 145 million per year. A substan- tial share of this ~ount hes beon used by the caisses to support domestio prices to producers.. ,
.c.~-,- _
.. C·c· ., ••_ ~_ _. _ . ~ . _'~_,._cc•••._ _•• _
-10-
Part of tho inoo@e of tho caissos is to be allocated to the build- ing uIl of adequate re-serves to enable theD to carry out stabilization oIlerations. For coffee, the caisses W0ro called upon to stabilize returns for a large and increasing share of eXIlorts directed to markets outside France, where prices in recent years have been subject to wide fluctuations. In these circumstances, large reserves are required, and, in fact, tho coffee caisses aimed E:,t HosGrvo Funds with resources corresponding to about
50
percent of the value of the crop, based on a moving three-yee~ average. How8v~r~ ~s the poriod of op8rations bythe caisses has.boen one of great instability in the world coffoe market, none of the caisses managed to establ~sh and Qaintain Reserve Funds
anywhere ne~r this target lovol. The coffee caisse of the Ivory Coast, for ex~nplG, entered the
1958/59
crep year with a Reserve Fund of1,520
million CFA frs. (or about eight porcent of the value of exports).Two yoars later, the Reserve Fund had fallen to
184
million francs, and by tho end of1960
tho Fund was exhausted. Tho Government, in the decree fixing the support price for the1960/01
crop, guaranteed to underwrite all the operations of ths caisse, but the price to producers had tc be reduced fro@105
CFA frs. in the1959/60
crcp year tc95
CFA frs. in1960/61.
Asido from guaranteed prices in France, further aid is available to these caisses in the form of loans from the Central Fund, when world prices fall belcw certain specified levels. The scale of these opera- ticns is rather modest, but their impcrtance lies in the fact that they may be und.er-t ake n at crucial times in the life cf the f'unds, The Central Fund·loans to coffee caisses up to the end cf
1960
amcunted to a total of 1&25
million, of which NF 6 millicn had been repaid.The coffoe stabilizQticn funds accounted, at the same time, for 8-beut
70
percent of all outstanding Central Fund loans.A seccnd main polioy objective, particularly since the weakening of the coffee market ~fter
1957,
has boon to stabilizo the world coffeepriC8e HGr29 the policies pursuci in Brazil hQve beon of major- import-
ance. Since
1953,
the supervision of the coffee soctcr in Brazil has been tho function of tho Instituto Brasileirc do Cafe (IBC), which represents Feder~l ~nd State Govorruilonts ~s well as producers andexporters. After the second World War, the first Brazilian atteopts tc control coff00 prices in the world markets came in
1956
with the fixing cf weekly export price minima, with vftriations according to grade. For the1957/58
season, this was extended to a price suppcrt system, whereby the IBC bought coffee when the world price fell below ~ certain level.Large purchases were Clade und.or- this system.
For the
1958/59
seascn, greater emphasis was placod on preventing a further fall in world pricos. The IBC, ~t the beginning of the seascn, withdrew the fir 3t year's surplus from tho export market. It limited the quantity of ooffee going overseas by fixing proporticns for different markets;60
percent for expcrt,30
percent for hcme consump- tion and10
percent for other uses, nctably fcr ccnvorsicn to oil ~ndfertilizers. At the same time, it undortook several special contracts with centrally-pl~nnedcountries in Europs and soluble coffee manufac- turers in the United States.
•
•,
•
•
•
i •
•
..
•
-11-
The second largost coffea producer in L~tin knerica9 Colombia, also maintains an oxport support price systOQo For the past four years, Colombia has imposed a 15 porcent oxchange tax on tho value of coffee exports, while coffee equivalent to 15 percent of the que~tity
exportod has to be de live rod to the National Federation of Coffee Growors.
•
A third objectivG of pelicy has been concerned "ith iffiproving long-term productivity in coffee f~rming. Many goverruaents, both in Africa and in Latin Amcricrr, made spacial efforts to assist farmers in cultivation and marketLng , Nurseries "ere built to provide seed- lings, while exporimental stations doveloped now v~rieties ~nd ~nti
disease to chru.que s , :By the late 1950''', howovor , it was clear that further improvements in productivity without, at tho sarno time,
restrioting new planting and/or destroying old, less productive plantations, would only aggr0vate the surplus position in the world market.
Over the past throe yenrs, a program of rohabilitation of coffee plantations has been undertaken in :Brazil. The Federal Government announced, in July 1959, a plan ";0 limit producticn and, at the same time, to incrcase the long-term productivity of the coffee plantations.
Up to Cr. 1,000 million were allocated for tho rCoUewal of plantings.
Under plans which had to be officially approved in detail, about 900 million old oof'f'e c trees ';lore to be. destroyed r.nd replac8d by 300 million trees whose productivity was twico as high. Some progress has boen made with this scho@o, which has subsequently been extended.
In November 1961, tho recently instituted Grupo Executivo da
Racionalizagao da Cafeicultura (GERC.t.) announced a plan under which 1,000 million old tre8S would be eradiCatod and later ~nother 1,000 million replaced by 150 million high-yi81ding new trees over a poriod of four years.
International Measures
Soon after tho break in coffeo pric~s in tho mid-1950's, an
Agreement was signed in Moxico City (1957) botw0on seven L~tin American Republics, including Brazil and Colombin, illlder which maximum export
quotas of 90.porcent of tho prsvious y8ar's 8xports wero agreed, except
for Brazil, whose quot~ vrr~s 80 porcent.
The following summer, tho InternC\tional Coffoe Study Group was sot up, in which the LQtin Americ~n countrios were joined by the Afrioan producers as well as tho United States and several important European oountries, to conduct economic and technologioal research.
Agreemen~ could not be roached, however, over an international scheme of oxport regulation. EventuQlly, fifteen Latin American countries agreed to a one-ye2.r steoks retention soheme, whereby a proportion of exportable production would be held off the market. Brazil and Colombia retained 40 peroent and 15 peroent, respectively, and other countries a smaller percentago. The French and Portuguese Afrioan territories announced a voluntary limitation of oxports.
-rz-
In the
1958/59
so~son, an export Quota schomo w~s substituted for tho stooks rotention schema, and somo l>frican producers, notably those associated with Franco anQ Portugal, took part in it. This scheme, in modified form, has boen in existence ever sinco on an annual basis and the British territories in Africa h~vG boon participants sinco the beginning of tho1960/61
soason. One fG~turo of the schema is a pUblicity campaign to foster consumption, for which ~ c0ntribution of25
U.S. cents por b2g exported is pay~ble by most producers.Some Policy Problems
It can be seon that, so f:cr, the of'f'o rt s at Lnt.cr-na'ti onr.I regula- tion of trade in coffee have been primarily directod at controlling tho volume of exports. AttGmpts have boon made only recently to regulate production cr to keop prices above a certain level or within predetermined limits. Nonetheless, it is ovident from the previous discussion of the outlook in tho world coffoe ffiGrkot up to
1970,
that thore is 0 serious long-term problom of oxcess c~pncity to be faced by tho various produoing oountries. For the Latin American producers, the long-term prob Lcm is nade more aoute by tho omorgenoo of African producers in tho intorna'ti.onaI mar-kot o , and tho possi ble diversion of trade to African produoers as a result of their assooiation with the European Economic Community~1/
Thoro are several aspeots of the long-torm problem "hieh nGed to be considerod by interested oountrios, nono of which is adoquately covered by the present sories of annunl International Agroements.
First~ it nppenrs essential that mCQsures must be taken to roduce tho industry's total capacity over tho ooming decade. This can bo done both by somo limitntion on now planting and by n schome of dostruction of eld, less-produotive tr~es. Seoond, it is important to improve tho produotivity of oxisting plClntCltions, Clnd those two objectives can, no doubt, bo combinod in ~ schama such ns that now in op0~ation in Brazil. Thore is, indeed, rumplo scope for improving yields "ith the development of new high-yielding varieties in a number of experimental stations.
]J
It has been ustim",ted thClt if British Commonwealth coff08 producers bvCOr:1G associatod vdth ~EC7 the associ2.tGd countrios might inaggrognte supply
180 - 190
thousand tons of ClrabicCl by1965
to EEC cQuntrics1 or roueh1y ono-thi~d 0 : tho Community's foroseeable ar-abi ca rQCluiromonts~ and might to this extent d.LspLacc ar-abd cashipmonts f ron, third countries , unless limi tr.t.Lons werG imposed by intornational agroement (soo 'Caffea in tho Europe~n Economic Community', Monthly Bullotin of Agrioultural Eoonomics and
Statistics, FAO, Ro~o, November
1961.
•
• •
-1]-
Thore is, however, n00d for intGrn~tion~l co-orrrination of moasures such as thesu~ for th~8 tc bG eff~ctivu 3t~tilizin0 influuucGs in tho wor Ld coffea L12-rkot~ Withaut co-operation on en Lntc r'n:'; tion:,.l Lcve L, no one country can be oxpc ct cd to bOc:,T tn ; eutiru bu ro.o n 0:' r-cad jus t.no rrt which is necessary in tho industry's tot~l c~p~city/ ~nd so risk losing pe rmancrrtLy its pre sont ShJ.T~ of tLv -vlOrlo. o xp ort :-::'::'.rk8t ,
A third consider:::,ti.on , .;von !.1sswnin2' co-o:Q,~rq'ti.on by producing count.r Lo s to red1.:~cG th(; IGVl..;l of pot.ent Lr.I c.utput , is\,;-L10th·.:;r such control of output lTOul(1~ in i t,381f O\.; auf'f Loi cnt to stc:.bilizo thE; vo r-Ld pr-Lce , wi t.hout thor:.... b<..;ing :J..t tho sC.~:nc.: ti'~-10 80::.".(; continuing Gs'reement On oxpo rts , Such C'::..grc;,JIT'.cnt I'mv.ld ht'.V0 t(} be suf'f'dc i.o ntLy f'Lcxi ble to c..llolT for chanyo s in consunor- llernc~n:::' for' tr...s diffr..:rGnt v2ri0tios to affect the r21::...tiv..: vo Lumc of shipmcnt s Iro:.1 thc sGver,'l,l p rcduc i.n., ccurrtr Lo s . It wou Ld 2.180 have to SYljOY tho co-opcorc,tion of importing countrios to pT8vunt producin; countries r8maining outside the ~GrG8
mont from bcncf i tin~ undu ly froe tho cxpo rt Lirri.tc,tions imp03Gd upon
th~ pGrticip~ntG.
·'"'-r---
..
•
•
9'" .,
Table 1. COFFEE. the world ooffe. poeitio~1950- 62
Indioes. 1953 - 56
=
100Years Produotion!! Net Import. StoOkeY Whol.eale Produotion Net Imports Wholesale
Prices Prices
..
• • • Million Metric Tons • • • • U.S. cents
. . . .
Inde% llumbers • • • ••
Ib1950-52 2.20 1.84 52.9 86 92 84
1953-56 2.55 2.00 '" 62.9 100 100 100
1957 2.52 2.19 56.9 99 109 90
1958 3.19 2.20 1.01 48.4 125 no 77
1959 3.52 2.48 1.69 37.0 138 124 59
1960 4.62 2.52 3.05 36.6 181 126 58
1961 3.89 2.57 3.50 - 36.2 153 129 58
3.60
1962 4·54 178
So~oesl The World Coffee Eoonomy, Commodity Bulletin Series, No.33, FAD, Rome, 1961J Coffe.. Reoent Developments., FAD Monthly :Bunetin of k;ricnU tural
Eoonomics and Statistics, Maroh, 1961.
]j Crop years onding 30 June of yoar stated.
~ Stocks in produoing oountrie~, mid-period estimates,
J!
New York, average spot prices of Brazilian Santos No.4•..
•
,~._+--_._---
Tabl. 2. COFJ'lIlE. annual fluotuation. in quantity, unit value and value of ooffee export. from seleoted countris. 1957-61
Count~ie8 Quantity Unit Value Value
1958 1959 1960 196W 1958 1959 1960 1961Y 1958 1959 1960 196Il!
..
ParaH-tag. Oh&ng8 trOll pre....ieu.-,year
. . • .
•. . ..
Angola ... 7 ...15 - 2 "'40 - 1 -20 - 7 -19 ... 6 -13 - 9 +13 Congo
. -2eY - 9
-27Y -47Y
(Lecpoldville) ... 5 +32 -17 - 4 + 9
Ethiopia -21 +13 ...14 +29 -14 -21 +12 - 7 -32 -11 ...28 ...20
Ivory Coast +11 - 7 +41 ...14 ... 6 - 8 -17 ... 4 ...17 -15 ,...17 +16 Ke11¥a +12 ... 3 ... 7 +29 -15 ... 1 -10 -13 - 3 ... 2 - 3 ...12 Malagaay Rep. - 1 -21 ... 6 - 2 - 4 - 8 - 4 - 1 -25 - 3 - 6 Tang811¥ika ...20 -12 ...28 ...10 -12 -13 - 6 ... 6 -24 ...28 + 3 Ugands - 6 ...12 "'32 - 7 + 2 -20 -31 - 9 - 4 -10 - 9 -16 BraZil -10 -35 - 4 ... 4 -9 -21 ... 1 -12 -19 ... 1 - 3 - 8
Colombia ...12 ...18 - 7 ... 2 -19 -14 - 1 ~ 3 - 9 ... 2 _ 8 - 1
SOUloe. International Financial Statistice, Deoember, 1961, national trade aooounts.
Y The ohanges shown for 1961 reter to the following periods, Malagaoy Republio, 11 monthe, Ke11¥a, TanIl"11¥ika and Uganda, 10monthe, Ivory Coaet and Colomhia, 9 montha, for
Brazil and Ethiopia, 6 months.
Y
Estimates.•
•
.
'= •
7•
,,,,.,,,Ta~le 3. COFFEE~ the importance of coffee in'thG economics of selected producing oountries
Coffee exports as proportion of . Country
~.,.
Horlcl coffee exports
iJ .. ~otal
exportsY
Gross national 1954-6 1957-9 1960-1 1958-9 product1958-9
...
Sources~ Yearbook of International Trade Statistics, 1959, Vol. I, United Nat i ons ; Now York,-1960; nYe2-rbook of National· u Accounts Statistics, 1960, United N~tions, New York, 1961.
l!
In terms of weight.y
Coffee 2,S peroentage ( ) f exports from specified country, in terms of value.]/ 1959·
jf
Beans only ••
• Table
4.
COFFEE: import trends, pre-war and 1953-61.. Averages
Change from1936-38 1953-56 1957-59 1960-611/1936-38 1953-56 1957-59 ~
Area to to to
1953-56 1957-59 1960-61
,
• • • • • • • •0 • • • • • • • • • • • Thousand metric tons
. ...
United States 816 1171 1254 1303 + 355 + 83 + 4?
Canada 18 47 55 62 + 29 + 8 + 7
U.K. 14 32 46 57 + 18 + 14 'I'll
E. E.
c.
484 435 530 630 49 + 95 +100of which France (186) (175) (189) (196)
(-
11) (+ 14) (+ 9)West Gormany (177)51(108) (166) (204)
(-
69) (+ 58) (+ 38)Soandinavia 119 128 156 180 + 9 + 28 + 24
Othor Western Europe 43 52 70 93 + 9 + 18
+
23Eastern Europe 2 # 13 35 60 12 + 22 + 25
Rest of lforld 119 123 141 154 + 4 + 18 + 13
Total 1638 2001 2287 2539 + 363 +286 +252
tons in areas now in Eastern Whole of Germa~ (of which, about 75 thousanc
Europe).
1/
Preliminary.51
l!
Exoluding prcsont aroa of East Germa~ and former German territo~J now in Eastern Europe; including these territorios, the pre-war imports were about 100 thousand tons.Source: F.A.O. Tho World Coffee Economy, Commodity Bulletin Series No. 33, brought up to date.
,
,
".,.•
Table 5. COFFEEg Net imports of coffee per head in m~in consuming countr,ies;
pro-war and 1953~6 to
1960-61.
Country
1936-38 1953-56 1957-59 1960-61 1960-61
as percent of 1936-38 1953-56Table 6. COFFEE: changes in not imports of coffee in relation to changes .i.n rdail coffoeprices~ 1958-60.
• •
Count.T.y .
Finland France
Germany, West Greece
Italy Norway Canada
United States
. Reta.i L coffoe price Net coffe:e imports
In .
·l~~~n~~. i~~~ }j
In Change from..
1958 1958 1958 to 1960
'"
Dollo.,rsj Pcroont Tl).osand Percent
kg. motric tons
3·56
-
1331
+ 92.50
-
11 189 + 44.62
- 13
160 +233.10 4
7
+9
3.64
6 81 "+22" ....2.18
-
21 27 +9
1.92
- 19
54 +121.85
-
21 1,178 +10%4
Source~ The Farld Coff06 Economy, Comrnodity Bu11din Series, No. 33,F. A. O. ,
Rome, 1961 (Appendix Tablos). .
11
Change in retail price doflated by n~tional cost of living index...
, •
Table
7.
COFFEE: Estimated effect of tax reductions on net imports of coffee into four European countries in1956 .
Finland France Germany (West)
Italy Total
Retail price (U.S. dollars per kg) Import duty and special taxes as
proportion of retail price (percentage)
Net imports in
1958
(thousand motric~)
Estimated net imports if duty and tax were cut by:
49
31
2.50 4.62
30 28
189 160
30
81
••
..
461
(a) 50 percent (b) 100 percent
33
35
199 2°9
170 180
88
96
490 520
Source The World Coffee Economy, Commodity Bullotin Series, No.33, F.A.O., Rome,
1961,
pp.34
~35.
Table 8. COFFEE, production
2J
and exports, by main area, 1958-62.•
Area 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962
~
Chenge fran 1958-59 to 1960-61Africa . . . Thousand metric tons •... IO • • ' " . '"• • • • • •' " .
· .
Production Exports Difference Latin America
538 536 + 2
629 582 +47
664 666 - 2
766 '740 700
+66
+131 +124 +
7
Production Exports
2498 1565
2736 1872
3785 1851
2929 1772
3609 .
• •
+740 + 93 Difference
Other areas
+933 +564 +1934 +1157 •• +647
Production Exports Difference Total
150 52 +98
155 173 191
62 65 78
+93 +108 +113
190
• •
· .
+ 29 + 14 + 15
Production Exports
3186 2153
3520 2516
4622 2582
3886 2550
4539
· .
+901 +231 Difference +1033 +1004 +2040 ,~J36 +670
Africe.n share . . . '" ... " . '" '" .. '" . '" . '" .... • Percentage
...
'"...
'"....
'".
Production Exports
17 25
18 23
14 26
20 27
16
· .
1554 •Source, The World Coffee Economy, F.A.O. Commodity Bulletin Series, No. 33, brought up to d~te.
2J
The production figuros rel~te to crop ye~rs ending middle of year shown.~ Eeti.mct e s ,
_---0-","'"
•
Table 9. OOFFEE, .Production in the principal producing countries, 1953-62
11
•
Oountry 1953-6
. Average 1957
-9
y
1960-2
Change 1953-6
to 1957-9
from·
J.I
1957-9 to 1960-2 ... ~ •Thousand metric tOllS ".
AFRICA
Angola 65 82 118 + 17 + 36
Congo
(Leopoldville) 37 65. 80 + 28 + 15
Ethiopia 46 55 54 + 10
-
1Ivory Ooast 83 121 .164 + 39 + 43
Kenya 18 21 30 + 3 + 9
Malagasy Republic 46 46 " 52 + 1 + 6
Tanganyika 18 22 25 + 5 + 3
Uganda 53 75 " 118 + 22 + 43
Other countries 38 61 82 + 23 + 21
Total 403 550 723 +147 +174
LATIN AMERIOA
Brazil 1 159
Colombia 375
Other countries 508
Total 2 041
1 395 427 555 2 376
2 281 468 '695 3 444
+236 + 52 + 47 +335
+886 + 41 +140 + 1068
11
Orop years ending in middle of year shown.Y
The "figures for crop year 1961-62 are ostim-aws-•..11
Calculated from full figures.---,.., ---_._---
Table
10. COFFEE
exportsby
miinproQucing countries,1953-62
j
f
Country
AFRICA
1936-8 1953-6 1951-9 1960-11/
average average average aver~ge
Thousand netric tons
Indices for
1960-61
1936-8 -100
1953-6
=100
Angola
19.9
Congo (Leopo1dville)
19.1
Ethiopia
11.0
Ivory Coast 10.5
Kenya
11.3
Malagasy Republic
30.1
Tanganyika 12.9
Uganda
13.0
Other Africa 7.4
64.8
79.5
98.6 40.875.7 85.0
36.845.1
48.093.9 118.1 161.4
17.8 24.8 29.1 44.444.7
42.6 18.720.3
25.8 52.6 85.1 114.330.0 51.6 72.0
5°0 446
436 1582 168 145 200 879 97315'1 208 133 178 163 96 138 217 240 Total
141.2
399.8 544.9
682.8 UTili .AMERICABra~i1 868.5 855.1 892.8 99405
. Colombia 247.9
349.8·
333.5 340.6 Other Latin America 300.4 370.7442.5
476.0115 137 159
171
117
97
128 Total 1416.8 1575.6 1668.8 1811.1REST OF WORLD 55.0
71.9128 69
115 131
...
TOTAL 1662.6 2030.4
2277~2'2565.7- 154-
126.,
Source ~ The World Coffee Economy, ·F.A.D. CODTI~odity BuJ.letin Series, No.33, Ope cit.
The 1961 figuros arc estimated•
\ ""
Table
11
COFF8Eg exports by country of origin anu de sti.nati.on ,1957-59
ToUnited Canada United. E.E.C. Other Ivest Total
From States
-_._.
Kingdom Europe~.••••..••.•• Thousand metric tons ... I:>oC • ~. . . .
\
Angola
45.4 1.3 0.8 18.6 11. 7 79.5
Congo
75·9 11
(Leopoldvil1e)
22.0 0.1 1.1 33.2 0.5
Ivory Coast
18.1 9·1 75.4 0.4 118.1
Kenya
3·5 0.8 3.4 13.9 0.6 24.8
Madagascar
7.5 33.7 0.2 44.4
Tanganyika
6.2 0.6 4.9 4.0 1.1 20.4
Uganda
33.5 1.3 20.8 7.6 1.9 85.1
...., . - , , - -
Africa
y 136.2 4a 31.1 186.4 16.4 448.2
Bra.zil
420.0 14.3 6.3 137·9 137·7 892.9
Colombia
263.1 6.2 1.0 40.2 18.6 333·5
La~in America
11 958.6 23.8 9.3 288.7 166.0 1 631.4
Total of above
1 094.8 27.9 40.4 475.1
182.4 2079.
6• • • • .. ,. • ~• ..• • L .. • • II' .. .. ~ • • • • •..Pe r c e ntage ...tI...,;,...
African share
12 15
7739
922
Source: The World Coffee Economy F.A.O. Commo~ity Bulletin Series No.
33,
~oii., Appondix Tables.
The destination of about
40
~eroent of1959
exports is unspecified.Total of the countries shown.
BraZil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvadort Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Peru, Venezuela.
'<!" ··~'-L"'i---~---