African Statistical Newsletter = Bulletin d’Information Statistique 2014

AfricAN StAtiSticAl NewSletterBulletiN d’iNformAtioN StAtiStique AfricAiN

iNSide tHiS iSSue / dANS ce NumÉro:

Announcement: first Joint SessioncodG/Stat-

com-Africa 2 Annonce: Première Session conjointe codG/

comStat-Afrique Annoucement of African Statistics day

2014 16 Annonce de laJournée Africaine de la Statistique 2014

Statistical development - Selected Areas 20 développement de la statistique - Sujets choisis research articles 28 Articles de recherche.

United Nations Economic

Commision for Africa Commission Économique pour

l’Afrique des Nations Unies

African Centre for Statistics Centre Africain pour la

Statistique African Centre for Statistics

Centre Africain pour la Statistique African Centre for Statistics

Centre Africain pour la Statistique

African Statistical Newsletter Bulletin d’information Statistique

issue

Numéro Juin

Volume 8

1 ^June 2014

Announcement:

First Joint Session of The Committee of Directors Generals of National

Statistics Office (CoDG) And

The Statistical Commission for Africa (STATCOM-AFRICA)

Annonce:

Première Session conjointe du Comité des Directeurs Généraux des Offices nationaux de statistique

(CoDG) Et de

La Commission statistique pour l’Afrique (ComStat-Afrique)

Word cloud built with R using the documents of the Strategy for the Harmonization of Statistics in Africa (SHa- SA) and the Reference Regional Strategic Framework for statistical capacity building in Africa (RRSF). - Nuage de mots construit avec R en utilisant les documents de la Stratégie pour l’Harmonisation des Statistiques en Afrique (SHaSA) et du Cadre Stratégique Régional de Référence pour le renforcement des capacités statistiques en Afrique (CSRR).

AfricAN StAtiSticAl NewSletterBulletiN d’iNformAtioN StAtiStique AfricAiN AfricAn centrefor StAtiSticS

centre AfricAinpourlAStAtiStique

contAct o.i.c, AcS / contActerle

DirecteurpArintérimDu cAS:

P.o.Box 3005, Addis Ababa, ethiopia tel.: +251-11-54434569

fax: 251-11-5510389 ezigbalike.uneca@un.org

http://uneca.org/acs

eDitoriAl teAm / equipeDeréDAction: Joseph Tinfissi Ilboudo Ayenika Godheart mbiydzenyuy

oumar Sarr issoufou Seidou Sanda

Haile mulualem thomas Sinmegn

c ^ontentS / S ^ommAire

Announcement: First Joint SessionCoDG/StatCom-Africa ² Annonce: Première Session conjointe CoDG/ComStat-Afrique ³

Annoucement of African Statistics Day 2014 ¹⁶

Annonce de la Journée Africaine de la Statistique 2014 18 Activities of the Africa Group on Statistical Training and Human Resources (AGROST) and the Training Component of the Action Plan for Africa of the Global Strategy for Improving Agricultural and Rural Statistics

20 Activités du Groupe Africain de Travail sur la Formation Statistique et les

Ressources Humaines (AGROST) et de la composante formation de la Stra- tégie Globale pour l’Amélioration des Statistiques Agricoles et Rurales ²¹ Civil registration and vital statistics—now everybody’s business ²² The African Project on the Implementation of the 2008 System of National

Accounts is on the move ₂₄

Le projet africain sur la mise en œuvre du Système de comptabilité nation-

ale 2008 est en marche ₂₆

Effects of Environmental Factors on Child’s Survivorship at Birth ²⁸

Editorial Policy ⁴⁸

Politique éditoriale ⁴⁹

AfricAN StAtiSticAl NewSletter BulletiN d’iNformAtioN StAtiStique AfricAiN

African Union

Commission United Nations Economic

Commission for Africa

A

: F

J

s

c

DG/s

c

-A

AfricAN StAtiSticAl NewSletterBulletiN d’iNformAtioN StAtiStique AfricAiN

Commission de

l’Union Africaine Commission Économique pour l’Afrique des Nations Unies

A

: P

s

c

DG/c

s

-A

AfricAN StAtiSticAl NewSletter BulletiN d’iNformAtioN StAtiStique AfricAiN

I. Background and rationale

1. The Committee of Directors-General of African National Statistical Offices (CoDG) was established in 2006 by African Union (AU) Conference of Ministers of Economy and Finance (CAMEF). As mandated, the CoDG meets every year under the aegis of the African Union Commission (AUC) to discuss statistical development issues in Africa, including progress made in the implementation of the African Charter on Statistics and the Strategy for the Harmonization of Statistics in Africa (SHaSA) and reported to CAMEF. Members of CoDG are constituted by Directors General of National Statistics Offices (NSOs). Heads of Statistics Training Centers, Regional and Panafrican Statistics Organizations and partners also attend the meeting. Since 2008, the CoDG has been reporting to the Joint Annual Meetings of the AU Conference of Min- isters of Economy and Finance and Conference of African Ministers of Finance, Planning and Economic Development of ECA (hereafter referred to as Joint Annual Meetings of AU-ECA Ministers).

2. The Statistical Commission for Africa (StatCom-Africa) was established in 2005 by the United Nations Economic Com- mission for Africa (ECA) Conference of Ministers of Finance, Planning and Economic Development. StatCom-Africa acts within the framework of the policies and procedures of the United Nations and subject to the general supervision of the ECA Conference of Ministers of Finance, Planning and Economic Development1. Members of StatCom-Africa are constituted by African countries represented by heads of National Statistical Offices (NSOs). It is also a forum where the African Symposium on Statistical Development (ASSD), the Forum on Statistical Development in Africa (FASDEV), and other initiatives report on their work progress. StatCom-Africa meets on a biennial basis.

3. The delegates to CoDG and the StatCom-Africa comprise, to a large extent, the same constituency, namely Directors- General of NSOs. The main difference between these two intergovernmental bodies is in the reporting mechanism of the AUC and ECA to their governing bodies. While CoDG reports to the AU Conference of Ministers of Economy and Fi- nance and subsequently to the Summit of Heads of State and Government of the African Union, StatCom-Africa reports to the Conference of African Ministers of Finance, Planning and Economic Development of ECA. As the constituencies of the two Conferences are almost the same, from 2008, they have started convening in joint sessions as Joint Annual Meetings of the AU Conference of Ministers of Economy and Finance and Conference of African Ministers of Finance, Planning and Economic Development of ECA (hereafter referred to as Joint Annual Meetings of AU-ECA Ministers).

4. The Joint Annual Meetings of AU-ECA Ministers would have continued to receive two separate reports from the Com- mittee of Directors Generals of National Statistics Office (CoDG) and the Statistical Commission for Africa (StatCom- Africa), composed of the same group of heads of NSOs. In order to reduce the number of statistical fora at continental level and to streamline the work of the two intergovernmental statistical processes, the Joint Annual Meetings of AU-ECA Ministers had suggested that the CoDG and StatCom-Africa should merge and form a single forum, at a par with the United Nations Statistical Commission, to meet every year. In response to this request, the Seventh meeting of CoDG, held from 5 to 7 December 2013 in Johannesburg, South Africa, made a recommendation that it will hold joint session with StatCom-Africa, starting in 2014. The session was named the Joint Session of the AU Committee of Directors General of National Statistics Offices (CoDG) and ECA Statistical Commission for Africa (StatCom-Africa) – hereafter referred to as Joint Session.

II. Objectives

5. The Joint Session of CoDG and StatCom-Africa contributes to the progress of policies on statistics and statistical activi- ties in Africa, as each body had done hitherto, in a more integrated manner. The Joint Session considers issues of concern in national and continental statistical development, methodological issues, coordination and integration of the African Statistical System, support of technical cooperation activities in statistics and organizational matters. It shall provide stra- tegic direction to the work of ECA and AUC on statistics and statistical development in Africa, covering all the relevant areas of statistics.

III. First Joint Session CoDG and StatCom-Africa

6. The First Joint Session is being prepared by the Statistics Division of AUC and the African Centre for Statistics of the ECA in collaboration with the Economic & Social Statistics Division of the African Development Bank. It will be held from 24 to 28 November 2014 in Tunis, Tunisia. The theme of the meeting is: “Agriculture and Food Security in Africa”.

IV. Format of the Joint Session

7. For operational reasons, and so as to enable the Joint Session to discharge its responsibilities in an effective, coordinated and focused manner, the meeting is organized in plenary and Break-out sessions. To that effect, technical working groups have been instituted on a number of domains.

A

: F

J

s

c

DG/s

c

-A

AfricAN StAtiSticAl NewSletterBulletiN d’iNformAtioN StAtiStique AfricAiN I. Contexte et justification

1. Le Comité des Directeurs Généraux des Offices nationaux africains de statistique (CoDG) a été créé en 2006 par la Conférence de l’Union africaine (UA) des Ministres de l’Economie et des Finances (CAMEF). Conformément à son mandat, le CoDG se réunit chaque année sous l’égide de la Commission de l’Union africaine (CUA) pour discuter des questions de développement de la statistique en Afrique, y compris les progrès accomplis dans la mise en œuvre de la Charte africaine de la statistique et de la Stratégie pour l’harmonisation des statistiques en Afrique (SHaSA) et fait rapport à la CAMEF. Les membres de CoDG sont constitués par les Directeurs Généraux des Offices nationaux de statistique (ONS). Les dirigeants des Centres de formation statistique, les organisations statistiques régionales et panafricaines ainsi que des partenaires assistent également à la réunion.

Depuis 2008, le CoDG rend compte à la réunion annuelle conjointe de la Conférence de l’UA des Ministres de l’Economie et des Finances et de la Conférence de la CEA des Ministres africains des Finances, de la Planification et du Développement économique (ci-après dénommé réunion annuelle conjointe des ministres de l’UA-CEA).

2. La Commission statistique pour l’Afrique (ComStat-Afrique) a été créée en 2005 par la Conférence de la Commission économique des Nations Unies pour l’Afrique (CEA) des Ministres des Finances, de la Planification et du Développement économique. ComStat-Afrique agit dans le cadre des politiques et procédures de l’Organisation des Nations Unies et sous la supervision générale de la Conférence de la CEA des Ministres africains des Finances, de la Planification et du Développement économique1. Les membres de ComStat-Afrique sont constitués par les pays africains représentés par les chefs des bureaux nationaux de statistique (INS). Il est aussi un forum où le Symposium africain sur le développement de la statistique (SADS), le Forum sur le développement statistique en Afrique (FASDEV), et d’autres initiatives rapport sur la progression de leur travail.

ComStat-Afrique se réunit sur une base biennale.

3. Les délégués au CoDG et à la ComStat-Afrique comprennent, dans une large mesure, la même composition, à savoir les Directeurs Généraux des ONS. La principale différence entre ces deux organes intergouvernementaux est dans le mécanisme de notification de la CUA et de la CEA à leurs organes directeurs. Alors que CoDG rend compte à la Conférence de l’UA des Ministres de l’Economie et des Finances, ComStat-Afrique relève de la Conférence de la CEA des Ministres africains des Fi- nances, de la Planification et du Développement économique. Comme les compositions des deux conférences sont presque les mêmes, à partir de 2008, ils ont commencé à convoquer en séance commune les réunions conjointes annuelles de la Conférence de l’UA des Ministres de l’Economie et des Finances et de la Conférence de la CEA des Ministres africains des Finances, de la Planification et du Développement économique (ci-après dénommé réunion annuelle conjointe des Ministres UA-CEA).

4. Les réunions annuelles conjointes des Ministres de l’UA-CEA avaient continué à recevoir deux rapports distincts du Comité des Directeurs Généraux des Offices nationaux de statistique (CoDG) et la Commission statistique pour l’Afrique (ComStat- Afrique), composée du même groupe des Directeurs des ONS. Afin de réduire le nombre d’instances statistiques au niveau continental et de rationaliser le travail des deux processus statistiques intergouvernementales, la réunion annuelle conjointe des ministres de l’UA-CEA avait suggéré que le CoDG et ComStat-Afrique devraient fusionner et former un seul forum, sur le même pied d’égalité devant la Commission statistique des Nations Unies et qui se réunit chaque année. En réponse à cette demande, la septième réunion de CoDG, qui s’est tenue du 5 au 7 Décembre 2013 à Johannesburg, Afrique du Sud, a fait une recommandation qu’il tiendra une session conjointe avec ComStat-Afrique, à partir de 2014. La session a été nommée Session conjointe du Comité de l’UA des Directeurs Généraux des Offices nationaux de statistique (CoDG) et de la Commission statis- tique pour l’Afrique de la CEA (ComStat-Afrique) - ci-après dénommée Session conjointe.

II. Objectifs

5. La Session conjointe du CoDG et ComStat-Afrique contribue à l’évolution des politiques en matière de statistique et des ac- tivités statistiques en Afrique, telle que le faisait chaque entité jusque-là, mais d’une manière plus intégrée. La session conjointe examine les questions d’intérêt dans le développement statistique national et continental, les questions méthodologiques, la co- ordination et l’intégration du système statistique africain, l’appui des activités de coopération technique en statistique ainsi que les questions d’organisation. Il doit donner une orientation stratégique aux travaux de la CEA et de la CUA sur les statistiques et le développement statistique en Afrique, couvrant tous les domaines pertinents à la statistique.

III. Première Session conjointe CoDG et ComStat-Afrique

6. La Première Session conjointe est en cours de préparation par la Division statistique de la CUA et le Centre africain pour la statistique de la CEA, en collaboration avec la Division des statistiques économiques et sociales de la Banque africaine de développement. Elle se tiendra du 24 au 28 Novembre 2014 à Tunis en Tunisie. Le thème de la rencontre est: «L’Agriculture et la Sécurité alimentaire en Afrique».

IV. Format de la Session conjointe

7. Pour des raisons opérationnelles, et afin de permettre à la Session conjointe de s’acquitter de ses responsabilités de manière efficace, coordonnée et ciblée, la réunion est organisée en séance plénière et travaux de groupes. À cet effet, des groupes de travail techniques ont été mis en place sur un certain nombre de domaines.

A

: P

s

c

DG/c

s

-A

AfricAN StAtiSticAl NewSletter BulletiN d’iNformAtioN StAtiStique AfricAiN

8. In parallel with the Joint Session will be the inaugural Africa meeting of the Global Geospatial Information Management (GGIM-Africa). The UN-GGIM is an initiative to coordinate the management of geospatial information on a global level.

GGIM-Africa is proposed to be a regional subset of that body. The correlation between geospatial information and statistics is very strong and hence the parallel meetings. They will also share the opening and closing sessions as well as one plenary ses- sion, proposed to be on the topic of the 2020 Round of Population and Housing Census.

9. Apart from the plenary and the working Groups sessions, a series of meetings are planned to take place in conjunction with the meeting including: the Forum on Statistical Development in Africa (FASDEV), An Africa Regional Integration Index Meet- ing, the African Reference Frame (AfRef) Meeting and An Expert Consultation Meeting on the Renewable Energy Statistics.

V. Who can participate?

10. The official country delegation to the Joint Session of CoDG-ComStat-Africa shall normally be led by the head of the Na- tional Statistics office.

11. Similarly, the official country delegation to GGIM Africa shall normally be led by the head of the national mapping agency or other appropriate agency responsible for the production and custody of geographic data and information, such as national cadastral, cartographic and land survey services.

12. Observers from national, regional and international organization, IGOs, NGOs, the academia and research institutions, the private sector and related industries will also be invited to attend. Except for sessions designated as private, observers attend all the sessions and participate in the discussions during the meeting, but may not vote in the rare event of an issue requiring a vote.

VI. How to participate?

The invitations to member States will be channeled through the Ministries of Foreign Affairs and existing embassies in Addis Ababa, Copies of the invitations to the governments will be sent to the national agencies and other focal points responsible for statistics. Observers will be invited directly by SD/AUC and ACS/ECA.

13. Participation can be made in various ways:

Contact the relevant government agency in your country to be included in the country delegation;

•

Contact the Secretariat at the address below to be considered for invitation as an observer.

•

14. Proposals from parties interested in organizing workshops on relevant themes, and/or in sponsoring participants to the workshops, are welcome.

Contact Information

For further information, please contact:

Mr. Dossina Yeo

• , Acting Head of Statistics Division, Economic Affairs Department, African Union Commission. Tel : (251) 115 182651/ (251) 115 51 77 00. E-mail: DossinaY@africa-union.org.

Mr. Jose Awong ALENE

• , Statistician, Economic Affairs Department, African Union Commission. Tel: (251) 115 51 77 00.

E-mail: AleneJ@africa-union.org.

Mr. Joseph Tinfissi Ilboudo

• , Chief, Statistical Development Section, African Centre for Statistics (ACS), UN Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA). Tel: (251) 115 44 55 33. E-mail: JIlboudo@uneca.org.

Mr. Rob Gray

• , Chief Geoinformation & Sectoral Statistics, African Centre for Statistics (ACS), UN Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA). Tel : (251) 115 44 3712. E-mail: rgray@uneca.org.

Mr. Oumar Sarr,

• Statistician, African Centre for Statistics (ACS), UN Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA). Tel:

(251) 115 443614. Fax: (251) 115 51 03 89. E-Mail : osarr@uneca.org.q

A

: F

J

s

c

DG/s

c

-A

AfricAN StAtiSticAl NewSletterBulletiN d’iNformAtioN StAtiStique AfricAiN 8. Parallèlement à la Session conjointe, il sera tenu la Réunion inaugurale de l’Afrique sur la Gestion de l’Information Géospa- tiale Mondiale (GGIM-Afrique). GGIM-ONU est une initiative visant à coordonner la gestion de l’information géospatiale à l’échelle mondiale. GGIM-Afrique est proposé pour être un sous-ensemble régional de cet organisme. La corrélation entre l’information géospatiale et la statistique est très forte d’où les réunions parallèles. Les deux réunions partageront également l’ouverture et la séance de clôture, ainsi qu’une séance plénière dont le thème proposé portera sur le Cycle 2020 des Recense- ments Généraux de la Population et de l’Habitat.

9. Outre la plénière et les séances des groupes de travail, une série de réunions sont prévues pour avoir lieu en lien avec la Ses- sion conjointe, y compris: le Forum sur le développement statistique en Afrique (FASDEV), une Réunion Afrique sur l’Indice de l’intégration régionale, une Réunion sur le Cadre de référence de l’Afrique (AFREF) et une Réunion de consultation d’experts sur les statistiques sur les énergies renouvelables.

V. Qui peut participer?

10. La délégation officielle de pays à Session conjointe CoDG-ComStat-Afrique doit normalement être dirigée par le Directeur Général de l’Office national de la statistique.

11. De même, la délégation officielle du pays au GGIM-Afrique doit normalement être dirigée par le chef de l’agence nationale de cartographie ou d’un autre organisme compétent responsable de la production et de la garde des données et informations géographiques, telles que le cadastre et la cartographique nationale ainsi que les services d’arpentage.

12. Des observateurs des organisations nationales, régionales et internationales, des organisations intergouvernementales, des ONG, des universités et des instituts de recherche, du secteur privé et des corporations connexes seront également invités à y assister. Sauf pour les sessions désignées comme privées, les observateurs assistent à toutes les séances et participent aux discus- sions lors de la réunion, mais ne peuvent voter que dans de rares cas où une question nécessiterait un vote.

VI. Comment participer?

Les invitations aux Etats membres seront canalisées à travers les Ministères des affaires étrangères et des ambassades à Addis- Abeba, copies des invitations aux gouvernements seront envoyés aux agences nationales et autres focal Points responsables des statistiques. Les observateurs seront invités directement par SD / AUC et ACS / CEA.

13. La participation peut s’effectuer de différentes manières:

Contacter l’agence gouvernementale compétente dans votre pays pour être inclus dans la délégation du pays;

•

Contacter le Secrétariat à l’adresse ci-dessous pour être considéré pour l’invitation en tant qu’observateur.

•

14. Les propositions de parties intéressées à organiser des ateliers sur des thèmes pertinents, et / ou à parrainer des participants aux ateliers, sont les bienvenues.

Contact pour toute Information

Pour de plus amples informations, SVP prendre contact avec: q Mr. Dossina Yeo

• , Directeur par intérim, Division Statistique, Département des Affaires Économiques, Commission de l’Union Africaine. Tél : (251) 115 182651/ (251) 115 51 77 00. E-mail: DossinaY@africa-union.org.

Mr. Jose Awong ALENE

• , Statisticien, Département des Affaires Économiques, Commission de l’Union Africaine. Tél:

(251) 115 51 77 00. E-mail: AleneJ@africa-union.org.

Mr. Joseph Tinfissi Ilboudo

• , Chef, Section du Développement Statistique, Centre Africain pour la Statistique, Commission Économique pour l’Afrique des Nations Unies (CEA). Tél: (251) 115 44 55 33. E-mail: JIlboudo@uneca.org.

Mr. Rob Gray

• , Chef, Section de la Géoinformation et des Statistiques Sectorielles, Centre Africain pour la Statistique, Commission Économique pour l’Afrique des Nations Unies (CEA). Tél : (251) 115 44 3712. E-mail: rgray@uneca.org.

Mr. Oumar Sarr

• , Statisticien, Centre Africain pour la Statistique, Commission Économique pour l’Afrique des Nations Unies (CEA). Tél: (251) 115 443614. E-Mail : osarr@uneca.org.q

A

: P

s

c

DG/c

s

-A

AfricAN StAtiSticAl NewSletter BulletiN d’iNformAtioN StAtiStique AfricAiN

Since two decades, the statistical community celebrates the African Statistics Day every 18 November. This year, we are celebrat- ing the 24th African Statistics Day around the theme of making data publicly available for a better governance and a better information of the public for a more equitable distribution of the fruits of growth.

The celebration of this year puts the emphasis on the openness of data. The idea of “Open Data” is about making data freely available to the public. It means making consultable and freely usable all statistical data that are available in public institutions and public administration. Doing so allows fulfilling one of the dimensions of quality, which is data availability. Data accessibil- ity is defined as the

ease with which users can get data from the producer.

This accessibility concerns both the synthetic indica- tors produced by statistical services and individual data collected during census and other operations, such as surveys and ac- tivities of public ad- ministrations.

The notions of

«Big data» and

«Data portal» have emerged these last years within the information com- munity and par- ticularly within the statistical com- munity. All these notions revolve around the quest for a better valori- zation of existing data to meet the information needs of users, decision- makers and the general public.

The opening of data is part of larger of initiatives called

«open government»

aiming at (i) trans- parency, ensuring the mutual trust between citizen’s and politicians (ii) citizen’s participa- tion in the decision- making and (iii) better collaboration for more efficiency.

2014 theme for African Statistics Day: Open Data for Accountability and Inclusiveness

A

A

s

D

2014

AfricAN StAtiSticAl NewSletterBulletiN d’iNformAtioN StAtiStique AfricAiN

A

J

A

s

2014

Thème 2014 pour la Journée Africaine de la Statistique: Des données ouvertes pour plus de respon- sabilisation et d’inclusivité

Depuis quelques décennies, la communauté statistique du continent célèbre chaque 18 novembre, la Journée Africaine de la Statistique. Cette année, nous célébrons la 24ième journée avec comme thème central l’ouverture des données pour une meilleure gouvernance et une meilleure information du public favorisant ainsi une redistribution équitable des fruits de la croissance.

La célébration de cette année met l’accent sur l’ouverture des données. La notion « Open data » s’entend comme l’ouverture de données aux publics. Il s’agit de rendre accessibles et exploitables à tous les données statistiques disponibles au sein des institu- tions et des administrations publiques. Ce faisant, on remplit l’une des dimensions de la qualité des données qu’est l’accessibilité.

En effet, l’accessibilité de l’information statis- tique est définie comme la facilité avec laquelle les utilisateurs peu- vent l’obtenir auprès du producteur. Cette ac- cessibilité aux données concerne autant les in- dicateurs synthétiques produits par les services statistiques que les don- nées individuelles de base collectées lors des opérations de recense- ments, d’enquêtes ou l’activité des adminis- trations.

De même, les notions de « Big data » et « Data portal » ont pris de l’essor ces dernières an- nées de façon générale au sein de la commu- nauté informationnelle et particulièrement au sein de la communauté statistique comme de la communauté scien- tifique toute entière.

Toutes ces notions tournent autour de la recherche d’une plus grande valorisation des données existantes pour répondre aux besoins d’informations des util- isateurs, des décideurs ou du grand public.

L’ouverture des don- nées fait partie d’un ensemble plus vaste d’initiatives intitulé « le gouvernement ouvert » visant à (i) la transpar- ence, garant de la con- fiance mutuelle entre citoyens et politiques, (ii) la participation cit- oyenne dans la prise de décision et (iii) la collaboration pour une meilleure efficacité. q

AfricAN StAtiSticAl NewSletter BulletiN d’iNformAtioN StAtiStique AfricAiN

s

D

- s

A

AfricAN StAtiSticAl NewSletterBulletiN d’iNformAtioN StAtiStique AfricAiN

Civil registration and vital statistics—now everybody’s business Gloria W. Mathenge

The lack of and deficient civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems in countries has been deemed as “the single most critical development failure over the past 30 years”. In the years past, uptake by governments and the development com- munity of this challenge has been disappointing and excruci- atingly slow . In the developing world; and specifically Africa, there has hardly been any sustained CRVS investment agenda where the efforts have yielded concrete results and sustained progress. Investments made have largely been short-term proj- ects that have phased out over time. This explains the situation in which we find ourselves today - where many are born and die without their existence ever being recognized and/or entered in any legal and statistical record.

In past one year there has been a spate of activities at the global level with a clear recognition of the fact that a multi-sectoral and holistic approach need to be adopted to achieve improvement of CRVS systems at national, regional and even at global level.

The CRVS improvement programme in Africa that was initi- ated in 2010, followed by the recent efforts in Asia and other regions helped galvanize a lot of momentum at the global level and there is now a sense of urgency for improvement of CRVS across the global, a phenomenon that was never witnessed ever before.

The United Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), in col- laboration with World Health Organization (WHO) and the World Bank, held a global meeting on CRVS in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on 28-29 April 2014 supported by Canada Depart- ment of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development. The purpose of the meeting was to discuss investment and acceleration of CRVS strengthening in Africa and Asia, building on the cur- rent regional and global momentum. More specifically, the meeting’s objectives were: (1) to share and discuss four coun- try case studies on CRVS, including an investment plan (2) to discuss and agree upon a broad global investment framework for CRVS strengthening in countries and (3) to discuss ways in which all partners can work together to accelerate country CRVS strengthening.

The World Bank presented a draft CRVS Investment frame for a period 2015-2025, clearly signaling a major breakthrough in terms of the donors’ interest on a programme which hitherto was considered to be a ‘donor-orphan’. Four countries namely Ethiopia, Mozambique, Bangladesh and Philippines presented their cases studies and investment plans that would help to work on a global estimate of the extent of investment required for improvement of CRVS systems. The meeting helped prepare the ground for a high level event that Prime-Minister Harper of Canada is hosting at the end of May. 2014. The other organiza- tions that attended the meeting were UNICEF, UNFPA, UN- HCR, African Development Bank, Asian Development Bank, Inter-American Development Bank, Paris 21, USAID, Statistics Norway, Centre for Disease Control and others.

The above meeting is one among a series of recent initiatives that have positioned CRVS at the core of the global develop- ment agenda. The proposed post 2015 development agenda in diverse ways exclusively underlines the importance of CRVSs in the attainment of its prime vision of ‘eradicating extreme poverty’. The agenda seeks universality; through one of its five transformative shifts -“Leave no one behind”, and also promotes “good governance” and “data revolution“

as priorities for development. These elements are core attri- butes and derivatives of a well functioning CRVS system. The Commission on Information and Accountability of Women’s and Children Health, established in 2010 by the UN Secre- tary General, had also outlined CRVS as one among its ten priority recommendations for the improvement of Women’s and Children Health.

The growing global action on CRVS is driven and comple- mented by substantial regional momentum to improve the systems. In Africa, a regional CRVS improvement initiative known as the “Africa Programme on Accelerated Improve- ment of CRVS (APAI-CRVS)”, provides the management and programmatic guidance to African countries the im- provement of their systems. APAI-CRVS was created under the directives of African ministers responsible for civil reg- istration, during their first conference held in Addis Ababa, Ababa, Ethiopia in August 2010. The programme is steered by ECA, as the Secretariat, with the support of a group of United Nations agencies and non-governmental organiza- tions, who form the regional CRVS Core group. The min- isterial conference which is now institutionalized to be held every two years (beginning 2012) is the governance and monitoring arm of the programme.

APAI-CRVS is implemented through a regional Medium Term Plan that runs for an initial phase of five years. The programme’s current priority is to support countries to un- dertake comprehensive assessments of CRVS systems and to develop national plans of action. So far, 20 countries have either conducted assessment and developed plans, or have initiated action in this regard. The Regional Core Group on CRVS, under the leadership of ECA, is supporting the imple- mentation of the programme mainly through the regional plan and technical assistance to countries.

The global meeting importantly concluded with the formal- ization of the terms of reference of a global CRVS work- ing group. The working group is composed of the relevant CRVS players in the globe, primarily UN agencies and Non-governmental organizations. The group broadly aims at harmonizing and synergizing efforts toward the develop- ment of the systems across the globe. From the existing mo- mentum, it is now evident that the CRVS star is on the rise.

q

Enregistrement et statistiques des faits d’état-civil - maintenant l’affaire de tous: Le manque ou la défaillance des systèmes d’enregistrement des faits d’état-civil et de production des statistiques de l’état-civil est considéré comme l’échec le plus significatif des efforts de développement au cours des trente dernières années. Mais au cours de l’année écoulée, il y a eu une floraison d’activités et une reconnaissance claire du fait qu’une approche globale et multisectorielle est requise pour faire face à cette situation désastreuse.

s

D

- s

A

AfricAN StAtiSticAl NewSletter BulletiN d’iNformAtioN StAtiStique AfricAiN

The African Project on the Implementation of the 2008 System of National Accounts is on the move

The African Project for the Implementation of the 2008 Sys- tem of National Accounts (SNA), designed by the African Group on National Accounts (AGNA), is a continent-wide, joint and coordinated effort of Member States, Pan-African Institutions, i.e. UNECA, AUC, and AfDB, Regional Eco- nomic Communities (RECs), and AFRISAT. The Project brings together regional and international organizations and development partners to address the current challenges African countries face in producing timely and quality na- tional accounts, in support of good economic governance, regional integration, and sustainable development.

The Continental Steering Committee (CSC) was inaugu- rated in September 2013 and serves as the governing and decision-making body of the project. The project was offi- cial launched in January 2014.

As part of the efforts to move forward the agenda of the project, a meeting of the African Group on National Ac- counts (AGNA) on the Implementation of the 2008 System of National Accounts (2008 SNA) was jointly organized by the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UN- ECA), African Union Commission (AUC), and African De- velopment Bank (AfDB). The meeting was held at the Unit- ed Nations Conference Centre (UNCC) on 3-6 February 2014 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The meeting was attended by 45 African countries, two Regional Economic Commu- nities (RECs): Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), Economic Community of Central Afri- can States (ECCAS); and the following regional and interna- tional organizations and development partners: AFRISTAT, INSEE France, International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the United Nations Statistics Division. In line with the Conclu- sions and Recommendations of the Inaugural CSC Meeting, a Project Implementation Plan (PIP) for the project was de- veloped as a coordination mechanism among stakeholders.

Based on six pillars, the PIP outlines the activities with spe- cific timeframes, as well as leading and responsible institu- tions for Phase I activities of the project to be implemented in 2014, namely: (i) Member States will develop country plans and take actions; (ii) AfDB is the lead in the area of technical assistance; (iii) RECs and AFRISTAT are leading in the area of institutional strengthening; (iv) UNECA is the lead in compiling technical documents; (v) AUC is directing the advocacy campaign, and (vi) the Secretariat is in charge of coordination, monitoring, evaluation, and reporting.

In the same line, the 2nd meeting of the Continental Steer- ing Committee (CSC) for the African Project on the Imple- mentation of the 2008 System of National Accounts (SNA) was initially planned to take place from 2 to 4 April 2014 in Addis Ababa. However, as a result of unexpected scheduling conflicts of key stakeholders, the meeting’s title was changed to the Friends of the Chair (FOC) of the CSC. The objective of the meeting was to (i) review the progress made towards implementing the African Project on the 2008 SNA, includ- ing the Project Implementation Plan; (ii) discuss practices

actions for implementing the 2008 SNA; and (iii) deliberate on effective mechanisms for sharing information among re- gional and international organizations.

The meeting was attended by representatives of the follow- ing countries: Cameroon, Ghana, Kenya, and South Africa.

The following Regional Economic Communities (RECs) were represented: Arab Maghreb Union (UMA), Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), Eco- nomic Community of Central African States (ECCAS), and Southern African Development Community (SADC). The following national, regional, and international organizations were represented: Afristat, Australian Embassy, Interna- tional Monetary Fund (IMF), the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA), and the World Bank (WB). The following research and training institutions were represented: School of Statistics and Planning at Makerere University in Uganda and Institute of Statistics and Applied Economics (ENSEA) in Cote D’Ivoire.

The meeting agreed, among other important decisions, to:

1. Conduct a survey on country plans, follow-up ac- tions, and needs for technical assistance by the Secretariat and results will be shared with stakeholders, upon which a plan for delivering the requested technical assistance will be formulated by stakeholders;

2. Design country plans by the Member States for the implementation of the 2008 SNA;

3. Encourage Member States to utilize the technical assistance service provided by The IMF in the area of In- tegration Framework and Data Dissemination for national accounts through making a formal request through the Sta- tistics Department of the IMF;

4. Encourage Member States, upon the completion of a country plan, to request financial and technical support provided by the World Bank, by informing the Africa Re- gion Statistical Team; and

5. Seek additional technical assistance for RECs to promote the development of economic statistics and nation- al accounts on the continent;

6. Target the African Project’s advocacy campaign at the governmental level with the aim of gaining national sup- port for developing and sustaining human capital and statis- tical infrastructure; and

7. Promote and develop mechanisms to facilitate South-South collaboration, sharing of best practices, and making efficient use of resources for the effective and timely implementation of country plans for changing over to the 2008 SNA in African countries;

s ^tAtisticAl D ^eveloPment - s ^electeD A ^reAs

AfricAN StAtiSticAl NewSletterBulletiN d’iNformAtioN StAtiStique AfricAiN regarding project progress and ongoing activities and report to

the CSC through the Secretariat;

9. Share information by international organizations on their technical support activities and progress in national ac- counts in Africa;

10. Prepare and disseminate biannual project progress re- ports, by the Secretariat, for review by the CSC; and

11. Update the PIP by the Secretariat, taking into account the presentations made at the meeting, upon which RECs, AF- RISTAT and other concerned parties will review and return the document to the Secretariat.

q

D éveloPPement De lA stAtistique - s ^{uJets choisis}

AfricAN StAtiSticAl NewSletter BulletiN d’iNformAtioN StAtiStique AfricAiN

Implementation of the African Project on 2008 SNA: Compilation of Technical/Operational Documents

In accordance with the Conclusions and Recommendations on the Inaugural CSC Meeting, a detailed Project Implemen- tation Plan (PIP) was developed during the African Group on National Accounts Meeting in February 2014. The six pillars of the PIP are namely: (i) Member States will develop country plans and take actions; (ii) AfDB leads in the area of techni- cal assistance; (iii) RECs and AFRISTAT lead in the area of institutional strengthening; (iv) UNECA leads in compiling technical documents; (v) AUC is directing the advocacy cam- paign, and (vi) the Secretariat is in charge of coordination, monitoring, evaluation, and reporting.

In line with the six pillars of the PIP, ECA has actively led in the compilation of technical documents (Pillar IV). The technical documents serve as operational guides for Member States; and thus, are practical, incorporate international stan- dards and recommendations, and highlight the experiences and practices of African countries. In compiling the techni- cal documents, ECA is following the recommendations of the African Strategy, which calls for the compilation of technical documents in the areas of (i) supply and use tables (SUTs);

(ii) administrative data in national accounts; and (iii) the in- formal sector.

Supply and Use Tables (PIP Pillar IV)

The compilation of technical documents in the areas of SUTs and administrative data are in progress. For the technical doc- ument on SUTs, an Expert Group Meeting (EGM) on Supply and Use Tables (SUTs) was organized by ECA in collaboration with Statistics Mauritius, 2-6 June 2014 in Port Louis, Mau- ritius. The EGM provided a platform for national accounts experts to share and discuss African countries’ experiences and best practices in compiling SUTs; review chapters of the Handbook on Supply and Use Table: Compilation, Applica- tion, and Good Practices; and discuss methods to establish a cooperation framework between ECA and Member States.

SUTs provide the most detailed structure of an economy by presenting a comprehensive analysis of production of good and services, the use of goods and serves, and the income generated. The compilation of SUTs provides an accounting framework ensuring the consistency of supply and demand at current and constant prices and the overall quality of the national accounts. Therefore, in addition to highlighting Af- rican countries’ experiences and practices in compiling SUTs, the Handbook on SUTs is expected to provide the basic infor- mation for the derivation of detailed input-output tables that may be used for purposes of economic analysis and projec- tions. As a follow-up to the EGM, the comments and sugges- tions of experts will be incorporated to improve the Hand- book. National accounts experts from 25 countries and 11 representatives from regional and international organizations took part in the EGM.

Use of Administrative Data in National Accounts (PIP Pil- lar IV)

Similarly, for the technical document on the use of adminis-

collaboration with the Sub-Regional Office for Eastern Africa (SRO-EA), 23-27 June 2014 in Kigali, Rwanda. The EGM pro- vided a platform for national accounts experts to share and dis- cuss African countries’ experiences and best practices in using administrative data; and discuss the first draft of the Guidebook on the Use of Administrative Data in National Accounts. The EGM served to broaden delegates’ knowledge and assisted coun- tries to widen the use of administrative data in the compilation of national accounts. In Addition, the first draft of the Guide- book was discussed and approved.

The main objective of the Guidebook on Administrative Data is to highlight African country experiences and practices on the use of administrative data in the compilation of national accounts.

Currently, there is no single guidebook from the international agencies that covers all major administrative statistics and their use in national accounts. Therefore, the Guidebook on Admin- istrative Data is expected to fill this gap for African countries. In so doing, the Guidebook is expected to be an effective reference material for strengthening the capacity of African countries in using already available administrative data to improve the qual- ity and availability of national accounts. As a follow-up to the EGM, the comments and suggestions of experts will be incor- porated to improve the Guidebook. National accounts experts from 16 countries and 8 representatives from regional and inter- national organizations took part in the EGM.

Upcoming Activities: Country Plans and Follow-up Actions;

and ERETES Training for ECOWAS Countries Country Plans and Actions (PIP Pillar I)

Implementation is progressing in developing county plans and taking actions (Pillar 1). In this area, AfDB in conjunction with ECA and SADC is organizing a Workshop on the Implementa- tion of the 2008 SNA in SADC Countries in line with the Project Implementation Plan (PIP) of the African Project on the 2008 SNA. The purpose of the workshop is to follow-up on the PIP as formulated and agreed upon during the African Group on National Accounts Meeting held in February 2014 and to give support to SADC countries in preparing their country plans to implement the 2008 SNA. Thus, participants are expected to (i) assess their country’s SNA based on the self-assessment tools and diagnostic framework compiled by the UNSD; and (ii) draft and share their national plan to implement the 2008 SNA. The workshop will be held from 18-22 August 2014 in Lusaka, Zam- bia.

ERETES Training for ECOWAS Countries (PIP Pillar II) Similarly, in line with the PIP of the African Project, the ECOW- AS Commission is promoting the adoption of ERETES software for the compilation of national accounts in the region. The ob- jective of the training is to enable participants to have a compre- hensive understanding of the ERETES software for compiling national accounts. Thus, ECOWAS is organizing the ERETES training for 5 English speaking countries: Ghana, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Nigeria and Gambia. Expected participants are National Accountants from National Statistical Offices (or from the insti-

s ^tAtisticAl D ^eveloPment - s ^electeD A ^reAs

AfricAN StAtiSticAl NewSletterBulletiN d’iNformAtioN StAtiStique AfricAiN Abstract

We studied statistically those factors which determine the survivorship of a child at birth. The data used in this work was ob- tained from the Delivery Register of Our Lady of Loudes Mission Hospital Ihiala, Anambra state of Nigeria. The data covered all births recorded from January 2012 to December 2013. Factors which determine the survival of a child at birth are numerous but for this work, variables of a greater influence were considered which include: Mother’s age, Parity, Mother’s Diagnosis/health condition before delivery, Method of Delivery, Sex of the baby, Birthweight and the State of the child at birth i.e. if the baby is alive or dead at birth. Minitab-Excel Work Sheet Vasion-14 Software was used for the statistical analysis. It was found by chi- square test that the mother’s diagnosis/health condition before the delivery of a child is a key significant factor that determines the child’s survivorship at birth when it yielded a p-value of 0.000 which lead to the rejection of the null hypothesis of no asso- ciation at 0.05 level of significant while the mother’s age, parity and the child’s birth weight yielded a p-value of 0.222, 0.154 and 0.747 which lead to the acceptance of the null hypothesis of no association and insignificant at 0.05 level of significant. Z-test yielded a p-value of 0.000 which lead to the rejection of the null hypothesis of no significant difference between the proportion of live birth by SVD and C/S at 0.05 significant levels which implies that the method delivery of a child determines the child’s survivorship at birth and the proportion of dead birth by SVD = 0.6 is higher than that of C/S = 0.4 which is an evidence that C/S can serve as a remedial measure to cub problems associated with delivery. When the state of the child by the means of the Doctor, Midwife and Nurse attended delivery were subjected to comparison by ANOVA technique, the F-Test yielded a p-value of 0.701and the null hypothesis of equality of means still holds at 0.05 significant level which implies that child’s survival at birth is independent upon who attended to the child’s delivery. By the least square regression technique, it was predicted that for the year 2014, there will be a total live birth of 50 and dead birth of 8 of both male and female babies in the above hospital.

Key words: Livebirth, Stillbirth, Low Birthweight, Fetal Death .

r ^{eseArch Articles} - A ^{rticles De recherche}

Effects of Environmental Factors on Child’s Survivorship at Birth

Obikee A. C., Department of Statistics, Faculty of Physical Sciences, Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka, Nigeria.

Effets des facteurs environnementaux sur la survie de l’enfant à la naissance: Nous avons étudié statis- tiquement les facteurs qui déterminent la survie de l’enfant à la naissance. Les données utilisées dans ce travail proviennent du registre des accouchements de l’hôpital ‘Our Lady of Loudes Mission Hospi- tal Ihiala’ dans l’Etat d’Anambra au Nigéria. Les données couvrent toutes les naissances enregistrées en- tre janvier 2012 et décembre 2013. Les facteurs qui déterminent la survie de l’enfant à la naissance sont nombreux, mais, dans la cadre de cette étude, les facteurs ayant le plus d’influence ont été con- sidérés : l’âge de la mère, la parité, le diagnostic de l’état de santé de la mère avant l’accouchement, la méthode d’accouchement, le sexe du bébé, le poids à la naissance et le statut de l’enfant à la nais- sance (vivant ou mort-né). Les tests montrent que le diagnostic de l’état de santé de la mère avant l’accouchement et la méthode d’accouchement sont des facteurs clés qui déterminent la survie de l’enfant.

1.Introduction.

Childbirth also called labour or parturition is the culmination of a human pregnancy or gestation period with the expulsion of one or more newborn infants from a woman’s uterus. The process of normal childbirth is catigorized in three stages of labour:

the shortening and dilution of the cervix, descent and birth of the infant and the birth of the placenta. In many cases with increasing frequencey, childbirth is achieved through caesarian surgical, i.e. the removal of the neonate through a surgical incision in the abdomen rather than through a vaginal birth. Labour is sometimes accompanied by intensive and prolonged pains. There are three stages of birth. In the first stage, the midwives or physicians uses different methods to access and predict whether the mother will deliver spontenously or with caesarian section in the second stage. The second stage begins when the cervix is fully dilated and ends when the baby is born. The third stage is the period of unblical cord exposure and plancenta expulsion.When labour is slow, Augumentation process can be used to facilitate further labour. Obsteric forceps or ventouse can as well be used to facilitate childbirth.

Childbirth can be categorized into two: Live birth and death birth. The World Health Organization (WHO) defines live birth

AfricAN StAtiSticAl NewSletter BulletiN d’iNformAtioN StAtiStique AfricAiN

r ^{eseArch Articles} - A ^{rticles De recherche}

as any born human being who demonstrates independent signs of life including breading, voluntary muscle movements and heartbeat. Death birth (Fetal death) means death prior to the complete expulsion or extraction from its mother as a product of human conception, irrespective of the duration of pregnancy and which is not an induced termination of pregnancy. The death is indicated by the fact that after such expulsion or extraction, the fetus does not breathe or show any other evidence of life, such as beating of the heart, pulsation of the umbilical cord, or definite movement of voluntary muscles.

“Still-born” and “Still-birth” shall apply to any child which has issued forth from its mother after the twenty fourth week of pregnancy and which did not at any time after being completely expelled from its mother, breathe or show any other signs of life. The most important factors affecting mortality in childbirth includes: Adequate nutrition and access to quality medical care during pregnancy. Pregnancy can be categorized as high risk and low risk. Factors that can make childbirth to be high risk includes: prematurity, high blood pressure, gestational diabetes and a previous caesarian section. When a child is of low risk, it will lead to live birth but when it is of high risk, it will lead to death birth. This implies that low and high risk birth determine the state of a child at birth.

The state of a child at birth is a condition which satisfies whether a child survives at birth or not. Therefore factors which affect the state of a child at birth are factors which determine whether the child will survive at birth or not.

Some of the known factors that determines the survival of a child at birth inclue:

1. Age of the mother.

2. Parity (Birth order) i.e Number of children previously had by the mother.

3. Birth interval (Child spacing) 4. Method of delivery of the baby.

5. Gestational age (Duration of pregnancy).

6. Birthweight.

7. Head circumference of the baby.

8. Nutritional status of the mother during pregnancy.

9. Health condition of the mother during pregnacy.

10. Length of the unblical cord and placenta condition.

11. Heigth of the feotus.

12. Multiple birth.

13. Position of the baby in the womb.

14. Drugs taken by the mother during pregnancy (including alcohol and nicotine).

15. Place of delivery.

16. Doctors/Midwives Assisted delivery.

17. Wealth index of the father.

18. Stillbirth

19. Antenatal care.

AfricAN StAtiSticAl NewSletterBulletiN d’iNformAtioN StAtiStique AfricAiN

r ^{eseArch Articles} - A ^{rticles De recherche}

The antenatal and prenatal period is an important one both for mothers and the feotus. The child’s endowment at birth de- pents on both the genetic make-up of parents, parental endowment and subsequent fators like birth process, medical interventions, social, emotional and physical factors in the environment.

Premature babies are born as a result of multiple pregnancies, feutal abnormalities and structural or endocrine abnormalies in the mother. Induction of labour or caesarian section can be used to prevent death or disability in mother and feotus.

Since birthweight is an index of growth of the feotus in the uterus, it will help the obstericians and pediatricians to plan on how the next pregnancy should be handled. It will also help to determine the fate of the mother in the subsequent pregnances as it can decide whether the mother will deliver through a caesarian section or not.

The high increase in Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) in the whole world is a variable of greater challenge and concern to many and soundary. It is therefore of a paramount important to investigate and put into consideration those factors that can affect the survival of a child at birth as this will help to cub the high rate of infant mortality in the world. Therefore, this research work is set out to study systematically and statistically those factors which determine the survivorship of a child at birth by achieving the following objectives:

1. To determine if the mother’s age has a significant effect on the state of the child at birth.

2. To determine if the mother’s parity has a significant effect on the state of a child at birth.

3. To determine if the mother’s diagnosis/health condition before delivery has a significant effect on the state of a child at birth.

4. To determine if the method of delivery of the baby has a significant effect on the state of a child at birth. .

5. To determine if the birthweight of the baby has a significant effect on the state of a child at birth as the findings and the result of the analysis will go a longer way to bring to light to the whole world those factors which determine the state of child at birth and enlighten pregnant mothers on the necessary precausions and the basic medical treatments to be admin- istered to during pregnancy in order to ensure the survival of both the mother and the child during delivery. Padiatricians, obtericians and gynecologists are not left out as this study will also improve their knowledge on the basic care and method of delivery to be adopted during child delivery in order to reduce the child-mother mortality rate in the world.

Many authors have in a wide range of books given a clear exposition of the findings so far made in the different parts of the word. An extensive bibliography can be found the following books:

Accordidng to Streiss Gath (1997), he noted that alcohol consumption during pregnancy will increase the risk of develop- ment of fetal alcohol syndrom a condition leading to mental retardation in some infants. He also noted that smoking during pregnancy may also reduce birthweight.

Queenan (1999) noted that maternal factors which includes maternal weight, body mass index, nutritional status, emotional stress,toxin exposure, tobbaco, alcohol can harm the fetus in other ways, uterine blood flow and the woman’s primiparity also may affect fetal weight. Emenike E., Slawokok etal (2008) has it that women who become pregnant as a reult of rape face even more significant challenges in bearing healthy child. Their study also suggests that women who experienced sexual voilence before or during pregnancy are more likely to experience infant death. Lamont et al (2007) noted that some possible methods to prevent preterm birth includes: self-care methods to reduce infections, nutritional and psychological inteventions, control of preterm birth factors (e.g working long hours while standing on feet, carbon monoxide exposure, domestic abuse and other factors). Taking fish oil suppliments which are seen to be effective at reducing the risk of preterm birth. Shino et al (2006) noted tha the use of alcohol during pregnancy also increases the chance of preterm birth and tobacco is the most commonly abuse drug during pregnancy.

Dalby (1978)stated that one area of concerm in a developing foetus is the mother’s choice of life style, choices made during pregnancy and diet is especially important in the early stage of development.

2. Research methodology

AfricAN StAtiSticAl NewSletter BulletiN d’iNformAtioN StAtiStique AfricAiN

r ^{eseArch Articles} - A ^{rticles De recherche}

2.1 Chi-Square test statistic was emoloyed in this analysis to test null hypothesis of the independece between the state of child at birth and the sex of baby. The observed values are presented in a contigency in which the levels of one of the variables repre- sent the rows while the levels the other variable represents the column. Our decision to accept or reject the null hypothesis Ho of independence between two variables of classification is based on how large the discrepancy between the observed frequency and the expected frequency is. If the null hypothesis of independence is true, if the discrepancy is small, the null hypothesis is assumed valid. If the discrepancy is large, the null hypothesis is rejected and we will conclude that the two variables of clas- sification are independent. The decision as to whether the discrepancies are small or large is made on the basis of the size of quality calculated by using the modified formula:

Where:

n_ij = The observed frequency in the ith row and jth column.

E_ij = The expected frequency in the ith row and jth column.

r = Number of rows.

c = Number of rows.

The general formular for calculating expected frequency when the null hypothesis of independence is true is given as:

It can be shown that the Chi-Square defined by the above equation has a Chi-Square distribution with (r-1)(c-1) degrees of freedom when the null hypothesis of independence is true.

In calculating the expected frequencies Eij used in computing the Chi-Square, we need to know ni the row total and nj the column total for each observed value. Also the c-1, r-1 and the sample size n should be known so that the required degree of freedom (r-1) (c-1) will be valid and Eij ≥ 5. If the calculated value is greater than the critical value and the p-value is less than the significant level which is 0.05, then the null hypothesis of independence is rejected or is otherwise accepted.

Hypothesis of interest

1. Ho : There is no association between the state of a child at birth and the mother’s parity.

2. Ho : There is no association between the state of a child at birth and the mother’s age .

3. Ho: There is no association between the state of a child at birth and the mother’s diagnosis before delivery.

4. Ho: There is no association between the state of a child at birth and the birth weight of the child.

2.2 The Z-Test statistic will be used here to test if there is any significant difference between the hypothesis drawn and if there is, at what level of significant does it differ.

H0: p1 - p2 = p0 versus H1: p1 - p2 ≠ p0

Where p1 and p2 are the proportions of success in populations 1 and 2, respectively, and p0 is the hypothesized difference between the two proportions.

Then the appropriate Test statistic for the difference between the two population proportions is given as:

(2.1)

(2.2)

AfricAN StAtiSticAl NewSletterBulletiN d’iNformAtioN StAtiStique AfricAiN

r ^{eseArch Articles} - A ^{rticles De recherche}

(2.3)

Where and are the sample proportions of the two populations, and n1 and n2 are the sample size, and is the pooled estimate of the two samples proportions.

As usual, the null hypothesis of no difference between means is rejected if and only if zero is not con- tained in the confidence interval and if the p-value is less than the significant level α= 0.05.

2.3 The least square method of regression will be employed to obtain the trend line of total live- birthbirth and deadbirth for the year 2012 and 2013 and will also be used to predict the total number of livebirth and the total deadbirth in the hospital for the year 2014.

Using the least square method to estimate the trend line, we have that:

where

and

Where

n = Number of period.

Yt = Estimated trend value for a given time period.

α = The trend line value when t = 0

β = The slope of the trend line i.e the change in Y per unit change in time.

i=1,2,...n (2.4)

2.4 One –Way Analysis of Variance: the ANOVA technique will be used here to test for of means of the various factors affecting the state of the child at birth.

One –Way Analysis of Variance

Source of variation Sum of squares (ss) Degree of freedom (df) Mean squares (ms) F-ratio Between groups

Within groups

SS_R SS_E

V₁ = k-1 V₂ = k(r-1)

MS_R = SS_R/k-1 MS_E = SS_E/ k(r-1)

F = MS_R/MS_E

Total SS_T rk – 1 - -

AfricAN StAtiSticAl NewSletter BulletiN d’iNformAtioN StAtiStique AfricAiN

r ^{eseArch Articles} - A ^{rticles De recherche}

3. Data Analysis

3.1 Chi-Square Test of association between the state of a child at birth and the mother’s diagnosis the delivery of the child.

Table 1: State of the child at by the Mother’s Diagnosis before Delivery.

Mother’s Diagnosis before Delivery

State of the

child at birth

In Labour Stillbirth, IUD and Induction of labour

Pre-ecclampsis/Fetal distress,

URT Plasmodium, Multiple birth, Re- tained Placenta (RVP+ve), Obstruction of labour(RVP+ve), Acute Malaria in pregnancy, Plasmodium in pregnancy, Fever, Pre-ecclamsia, Hypertension in pregnancy.

Total

Alive 56

(43.03) 3.910

4

(15.10) 8.158

17 (18.87) 0.186

77

Dead 1

(13.97) 12.042

16 (4.90) 25.126

8 (6.13) 0.572

25

Total 57 20 25 102

The Expected values Eij are those enclosed in the brackets below the observed values and the individual Chi-Square values are printed below the expected values while the totals are the row and column totals of the observed value.

Ho: There is no association between the state of a child at birth and the mother’s diagnosis before delivery.

Hi: There is an association between the state of a child at birth and the mother’s diagnosis before delivery Given the significant level α= 0.05,

Chi-Sq = 49.994, DF = 2, P-Value = 0.000 Given the significant level α= 0.05, Chi-Sq = 49.994, DF = 2, P-Value = 0.000

Decision: Since is greater than the critical value = 5.991and the p-value = 0.000 is less than α= 0.05, hence we reject the null hypothesis and conclude that there is an association between the state of a child at birth and the mother’s diag- nosis before delivery which implies that the survival a child at birth depends on the health condition of the mother during the pregnancy.

Chi-Square Test of association between the state of a child at birth and the mother’s parity.