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APPENDIX 2 Relative abundance model results for all focal species

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APPENDIX 2

Relative abundance model results for all focal species

Species common name Correlation

White-throated Sparrow WTSP Predicted 0.912 0.96 0.976 Observed 0.777 0.923 0.919 Yellow-bellied Sapsucker YBSA Predicted 0.941 0.94 0.946 Observed 0.681 0.621 0.679

Brown Creeper BRCR Predicted 0.659 0.936 0.946

Observed 0.676 0.672 0.642 Yellow-rumped Warbler YRWA Predicted 0.917 0.928 0.926 Observed 0.827 0.833 0.794 Ruby-crowned Kinglet RCKI Predicted 0.855 0.85 0.924 Observed 0.636 0.378 0.541

Blue-headed Vireo BHVI Predicted NA 0.849 0.895

Observed NA 0.26 0.49

Blue Jay BLJA Predicted 0.745 0.661 0.886

Observed 0.5 0.473 0.621

Winter Wren WIWR Predicted 0.799 0.894 0.853

Observed 0.69 0.798 0.792

Hermit Thrush HETH Predicted 0.709 0.828 0.843

Observed 0.501 0.444 0.368 Black-throated Green Warbler BTNW Predicted 0.821 0.814 0.839 Observed 0.942 0.994 0.993 Golden-crowned Kinglet GCKI Predicted 0.041 0.876 0.836 Observed 0.495 0.377 0.56 Northern Flicker NOFL Predicted 0.827 0.811 0.833

Observed 0.657 0.552 0.506

Northern Parula NOPA Predicted 0.645 0.772 0.82

Observed 0.461 0.752 0.848

Ovenbird OVEN Predicted 0.641 0.755 0.783

Observed 0.796 0.611 0.719 American Redstart AMRE Predicted 0.804 0.767 0.77

Observed 0.674 0.866 0.866 Red-breasted Nuthatch RBNU Predicted 0.611 0.707 0.693 Observed 0.491 0.391 0.22 Black-and-white Warbler BAWW Predicted 0.46 NA 0.693

Observed 0.66 NA 0.386

Least Flycatcher LEFL Predicted 0.438 0.82 0.69

Observed 0.686 0.728 0.879

American Crow AMCR Predicted 0.523 0.495 0.658

Observed 0.269 0.141 0.29

Purple Finch PUFI Predicted NA 0.694 0.594

Observed NA 0.2 0.437

Black-capped Chickadee BCCH Predicted -0.562 0.57 0.588 Observed 0.293 0.343 0.231

Table A2.1: Spearman’s rank correlation coefficents for each pair of abundance indices for all species that were detected at least twice using both survey methods. Species are listed from highest to lowest predicted correlation values between A

p

and A

66R

. Value type indicates whether the

correlation was calculated using observed or predicted abundance index values. NA values indicate that there were too few detections of that species with the ARU survey method to fit a model.

Alpha

code Value

type A p ,A 30C A p ,A 30R A p ,A 66R

(2)

Species common name Data type Correlation

Merlin MERL Predicted NA 0.635 0.559

Observed NA -0.059 -0.059

American Goldfinch AMGO Predicted NA NA 0.542

Observed NA NA 0.322

Hairy Woodpecker HAWO Predicted 0.575 0.249 0.385 Observed 0.232 0.188 0.204

American Robin AMRO Predicted 0.181 0.656 0.376

Observed 0.469 0.34 0.557

Dark-eyed Junco DEJU Predicted 0.022 0.519 0.354

Observed 0.058 0.217 0.226

Bald Eagle BAEA Predicted NA 0.221 0.183

Observed NA -0.148 0.176

Common Raven CORA Predicted -0.115 -0.167 -0.233

Observed 0.54 0.451 0.27

Pileated Woodpecker PIWO Predicted 0.74 -0.391 -0.238 Observed 0.715 -0.201 0.06 Downy Woodpecker DOWO Predicted -0.564 -0.522 -0.525

Observed 0.301 0.098 0.253 Alpha

code A p ,A 30C A p ,A 30R A p ,A 66R

(3)

Figure A2.1 Predicted and observed relative abundance of 30 species observed in April and May of 2019 on the Point Abbaye peninsula. Points show observed values for each abundance index, while lines show the mean predicted values from 200 five-fold cross validated boosted regression tree models. The vertical axes show the daily abundance index value (A

p

, A

30C

, A

30R

or A

66R

, Table 1).

Species are ordered from highest to lowest correlation of predicted values for A

p

and A

66R

(Table A2.1).

Four-letter species codes correspond to the species common names found in Table A2.1. Blank plots

indicate that there was not enough data from that abundance index to fit a model.

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BHVI

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NOFL

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A 66 R

NOPA

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OVEN

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OVEN

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AMRE

(19)

● ●●● ●●● ●●●●● ●

●

●

●●●

●●● ●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

● ●

●

0.00

●

0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00

Apr il 1

Apr il 15

Ma y 1

Ma y 15

A p

RBNU

●

●

●● ●●

●

●●●●● ●●● ●

●

●

●●● ●

●

●●●●●

●

●

●

●

●

● ●●●

0.00 0.05 0.10

Apr il 1

Apr il 15

Ma y 1

Ma y 15

A 30 C

RBNU

●

●

●● ●●● ●●●●● ●●

●

●

●

●●

●● ● ●

●

●●●●

●●●

● ● ●●●

0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08

A 30 R

RBNU

●

●

●● ●

●

● ●●●●●

●

●

● ●

●

●

●

●● ● ●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

● ● ●●

●

0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06

A 66 R

RBNU

(20)

● ●●● ●●● ●●●●● ●●● ●●●●●● ● ●●●●●● ●●●

●●

●

●

●

0.0

●

0.2 0.4 0.6

Apr il 1

Apr il 15

Ma y 1

Ma y 15

A p

BAWW

● ●●● ●●● ●●●●● ●●● ●●●●●● ● ●●●●●● ●●●●●

●

●

●

0.00

●

0.02 0.04 0.06

Apr il 1

Apr il 15

Ma y 1

Ma y 15

A 30 C

BAWW

● ●●● ●●● ●●●●● ●●● ●●●●●● ● ●●●●●●

●

●●

●

● ●

●

●

0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03

A 66 R

BAWW

(21)

● ●●● ●●● ●●●●● ●●● ●●●●●● ● ●●●●●● ●●

●

●

●

● ●

●

0.0

●

0.5 1.0

Apr il 1

Apr il 15

Ma y 1

Ma y 15

A p

LEFL

● ●●● ●●● ●●●●● ●●● ●●●●●● ● ●●●●●● ●●

●

●● ● ●

●

0.00

●

0.03 0.06 0.09 0.12

Apr il 1

Apr il 15

Ma y 1

Ma y 15

A 30 C

LEFL

● ●●● ●●● ●●●●● ●●● ●●●●●● ● ●●●●●● ●

●

●

● ● ●●●

0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20

A 30 R

LEFL

● ●●● ●●● ●●●●● ●●● ●●●●●● ● ●●●●●● ●

●

●

● ● ●●

0.00

●

0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25

A 66 R

LEFL

(22)

●

●

●

●

●

●● ●●●

●

● ●●

●

●●●●●

●

● ●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●●● ● ●●●

0.0 0.5 1.0

Apr il 1

Apr il 15

Ma y 1

Ma y 15

A p

AMCR

●

●

●● ●●● ●●●●● ●●● ●●●●●● ● ●●●

●

●● ●

●

●●● ● ●●●

0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05

Apr il 1

Apr il 15

Ma y 1

Ma y 15

A 30 C

AMCR

●

●●

●

●●● ●●●●● ●●● ●●●●●● ● ●

●

●●●●

●

●●

●

● ●●●

0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06

A 30 R

AMCR

●

●●

●

●●

● ●

●

●●

●

●●● ●●●●●

●

● ●

●

●●●● ●●●● ● ●●●

0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04

A 66 R

AMCR

(23)

● ●●● ●●● ●●●●● ●●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●● ● ●

●

0.0

●

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4

Apr il 1

Apr il 15

Ma y 1

Ma y 15

A p

PUFI

● ●●● ●●● ●●●●● ●●● ●●●●●● ● ●●●●●●

●

●

●

● ● ●●●

0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05

A 30 R

PUFI

● ●●● ●●● ●●●●● ●●● ●●

●

●●● ● ●●●●●●

●

●

●

● ● ●

●

0.00

●

0.02 0.04 0.06

A 66 R

PUFI

(24)

●

●

●

●

●●

● ●

●

●

●

● ●

●

● ●

●

●

●

●

● ●

●

●●●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

0

●

1 2

Apr il 1

Apr il 15

Ma y 1

Ma y 15

A p

BCCH

● ●●●

●

●● ●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

● ●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●● ● ●

●

●

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3

Apr il 1

Apr il 15

Ma y 1

Ma y 15

A 30 C

BCCH

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

● ●

●●

●

●●●

●

●

● ●●

●

●

●

● ●●●● ●

●

●

0.00

●

0.03 0.06 0.09 0.12

A 30 R

BCCH

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

● ●●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

● ●

●

●

●

0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06

A 66 R

BCCH

(25)

● ●●● ●●● ●●●●● ●●● ●●●●●● ● ●●●●●

●

●●●●● ● ●

●

0.00

●

0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20

Apr il 1

Apr il 15

Ma y 1

Ma y 15

A p

MERL

● ●●● ●●● ●●●●● ●●● ●●●●●● ● ●●●●●● ●●●●

●

●

0.00

●●

0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05

A 30 R

MERL

● ●●● ●●● ●●●●● ●●● ●●●●●● ● ●●●●●● ●●●●

●

●

0.000

●●

0.005 0.010 0.015 0.020

A 66 R

MERL

(26)

● ●●● ●●● ●●●●● ●●● ●●●●●● ●

●

●●●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

0.0

●

0.4 0.8 1.2

Apr il 1

Apr il 15

Ma y 1

Ma y 15

A p

AMGO

● ●●● ●●● ●●●●● ●●● ●●●

●

●● ● ●

●

●●●●

●●

●

●

● ●●●

0.000 0.005 0.010 0.015 0.020

A 66 R

AMGO

(27)

●

●

●●

●●● ●●

●

●

● ●

●

● ●

●●●

●

● ● ●

●

●

●

●

● ●

●

●

●●

● ●●

●

0.0 0.5 1.0

Apr il 1

Apr il 15

Ma y 1

Ma y 15

A p

HAWO

● ●●

●

●●● ●●●●

●

●●

●

●●●

●

●● ● ●●●●●● ●●●

●

● ● ●●●

0.0 0.1 0.2

Apr il 1

Apr il 15

Ma y 1

Ma y 15

A 30 C

HAWO

● ●●

●

●●

●

●●

●

●

●

●●● ●●

●

●

●

● ● ●●●

●

●

● ●

●

●● ● ●●●

0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05

A 30 R

HAWO

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●● ●●

●

●

●

●

● ●●●

●

●● ●●●● ● ●●●

0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03

A 66 R

HAWO

(28)

● ●●●

●

●● ●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

Apr il 1

Apr il 15

Ma y 1

Ma y 15

A p

AMRO

●

●

●

●

●●● ●

●

●●

● ●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

● ●●●●●●

●●

●●● ● ●

●

●

0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20

Apr il 1

Apr il 15

Ma y 1

Ma y 15

A 30 C

AMRO

● ●●● ●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

● ●●●

●

●● ●●

●

●

● ●●

●

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3

A 30 R

AMRO

● ●●●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●●

● ●●

●

●

●● ●

●●

●

●

●●

●

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3

A 66 R

AMRO

(29)

● ●●● ●●● ●●●●●

●●

●

●

●

●

●●

● ● ●

●

●●●● ●●●●● ● ●●

0

●

2 4 6 8

Apr il 1

Apr il 15

Ma y 1

Ma y 15

A p

DEJU

● ●●● ●●● ●●●●●

●

●

●

●●●●●● ● ●●●●●● ●

●

●●● ● ●●●

0.000 0.005 0.010 0.015

Apr il 1

Apr il 15

Ma y 1

Ma y 15

A 30 C

DEJU

● ●●● ●●● ●●●●● ●●

● ●

●●●●● ● ●●●●●● ●●●● ● ●●●

0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03

A 30 R

DEJU

● ●●● ●●● ●●●●● ●●

●

●

●●●●● ● ●●●●●● ●●●● ● ●●●

0.000 0.005 0.010 0.015

A 66 R

DEJU

(30)

● ●●

● ●

●

●

●●●●●

●

●●

●

●●

●

●● ● ●●●●

●● ●●

●

●

● ● ●●●

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3

Apr il 1

Apr il 15

Ma y 1

Ma y 15

A p

BAEA

● ●●● ●●● ●●●●● ●●● ●●●●●● ● ●●

●

●●● ●

●

●● ● ●●●

0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03

A 30 R

BAEA

● ●●● ●●● ●●●●● ●●●

●

●●●●● ● ●●

●

●●● ●

●●

● ● ●●●

0.000 0.005 0.010 0.015

A 66 R

BAEA

(31)

●

●

●

●

●

●● ●

●●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

0.0

●

0.4 0.8 1.2

Apr il 1

Apr il 15

Ma y 1

Ma y 15

A p

CORA

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●●

●● ●●● ●●●●

●●

●

●

●●●●

●

●

●

●●● ● ●

●

0.00

●

0.03 0.06 0.09 0.12

Apr il 1

Apr il 15

Ma y 1

Ma y 15

A 30 C

CORA

●

●●

●

●

●●

●

●●

●

● ●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●●

●

●

●

●

● ●●●

0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15

A 30 R

CORA

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

● ●

●

●

0.00

●

0.03 0.06 0.09

A 66 R

CORA

(32)

● ●●● ●●

●

●●●●●

●

●

●

●

●●●●● ● ●●●

●●

●

●●

●●● ●

●

●

0.0

●

0.2 0.4 0.6

Apr il 1

Apr il 15

Ma y 1

Ma y 15

A p

PIWO

● ●●● ●●

●

●●●●●

●

●

●

●

●●●●● ● ●●●

●

●● ●●●●

●

●

●

0.000

●●

0.025 0.050 0.075 0.100

Apr il 1

Apr il 15

Ma y 1

Ma y 15

A 30 C

PIWO

● ●●● ●●● ●

●

●●● ●●● ●●

●

●

●● ● ●

●

●●●● ●●●● ● ●●●

0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03

A 30 R

PIWO

● ●●● ●●● ●

●

●●●

●

●●

●●

●

●

●● ● ●

●

●●●● ●

●

●

●

● ●●●

0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03

A 66 R

PIWO

(33)

●

●

●

● ●●● ●●

●

●

●

●

●

● ●

●●●●● ● ●●

●

●

●

● ●●

●

●● ● ●●

●

0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00

Apr il 1

Apr il 15

Ma y 1

Ma y 15

A p

DOWO

● ●●● ●●● ●●

●

●

●

●

●● ●●●

●

●● ● ●

●

●●●● ●

●

●

●

● ● ●●

●

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3

Apr il 1

Apr il 15

Ma y 1

Ma y 15

A 30 C

DOWO

● ●●● ●●● ●●

●

●● ●●● ●●

●

●

●●

● ●

●

●●●● ●

●

●● ● ●●

●

0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03

A 30 R

DOWO

● ●●● ●●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●●

●

●●

●

●

●

● ●

●●

●●● ●

●

●

● ● ●●

●

0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06

A 66 R

DOWO

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