Contents
Figures vii Tables viii Acknowledgments x
CHAPTER 1 14
POLITICAL ELITES IN DIRECT LEGISLATION CAMPAIGNS: AN INTRODUCTION 14
INTRODUCTION 15
EXAMINING THE INVOLVEMENT OF POLITICAL ELITES IN DIRECT LEGISLATION
CAMPAIGNS 17
Definition of Political Involvement 17
Endorsements as a Form of Elites’ Involvement 19
Social Media Platforms as a Source of Elite Endorsements 24
Definition of Political Elites 26
Definition of Direct Legislation 27
Forms of Direct Legislation: Initiatives and Referendums in the American States 27 Emergence of Direct Legislation in the United States in the Early 20th Century 30
THE CASE FOR STUDYING POLITICAL ELITES IN DIRECT LEGISLATION CAMPAIGNS 31 Normative Perspective: Direct Legislation vs. Representative Democracy 31 Direct Legislation: A Process to Undermine the Role of Political Elites 32 Political Elites Respond to the Opportunities Posed by Direct Legislation 34 Going Public about Ballot Measures Provide Cues to Voters in Direct Legislation Contests 35 Pragmatic Perspective: Political Elites, their Involvement, and the Widespread Use of Initiatives and
Referendums 37
Early Studies: Parties as Passive Observers in Direct Legislation Elections 38 Political Parties, Politicians and Candidates as Active Players in the Direct Legislation Process 38 Extensive Use of Direct Legislation in the American States 44
Conclusion 46
TOWARD AN UNDERSTANDING OF THE INVOLVEMENT OF POLITICAL ELITES IN
DIRECT LEGISLATION 47
Why Are Political Elites Involved in Direct Legislation Campaigns? Motives for Parties and
Politicians to Jump on the Initiative and Referendum Bandwagon 48
Establishing a Theoretical Framework 53
Political Elites are Driven by Issue Content 54
Free-Riding and Jumping on a Popular Measure Bandwagon 62 Rescuing Competitive Measures Drive Political Elites 64
OVERVIEW OF THE DISSERTATION 66
CHAPTER 2 68
WHEN TO GO PUBLIC? DIRECT LEGISLATION, GOVERNORS, AND THE DECISION TO
TAKE POSITION 68
INTRODUCTION 69
THEORETICAL EXPECTATIONS APPLIED TO GOVERNORS 71
CASE SELECTION, DATA AND VARIABLE SPECIFICATION 74
Case Selection and Data Collection Process 74
Dependent Variables: Gubernatorial endorsement and Speak Out 78
Explanatory Variables 81
Issue Ownership & Ideological Orientation 82
Divided Government 89
Jumping On a Winning Bandwagon 90
Competitive Elections 91
Control Variables 92
Governor-level Variables 93
Ballot-level Variables 96
State-level and Political Variables 97
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 99
Governors Rarely Speak out About Ballot Measures 99
Investigating Bivariate Relationships 101
Moving to Regression Analysis: Explaining Gubernatorial Endorsement 106 The Impact of Issue Ownership, Ideological Orientation and Ballot Popularity on Gubernatorial
Endorsement 111
The Impact of Divided Government and Competitive Measures on Speak Out 116
PRELIMINARY CONCLUSION 125
CHAPTER 3 129
POLICY OWNERS OR POLITICAL STRATEGISTS: STATE LEGISLATORS IN BALLOT
PROPOSITION CONTESTS IN CALIFORNIA 129
INTRODUCTION 130
THEORETICAL EXPECTATIONS APPLIED TO LEGISLATORS 132
CASE SELECTION, DATA AND VARIABLE SPECIFICATION 138
The Case for Studying California 138
Dependent Variables 143
Control Variables 151
Legislator-level variables 152
Ballot-level variables 154
District-level variables 156
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 156
Social Media and Ballot Campaign Websites as Platforms of Legislative Endorsements 156
Bivariate Analysis: Suggestive Evidence 159
Multivariate Regression Analysis 173
The Impact of Policy Issue, Ideology, Ballot Popularity and Party Recommendations on
Legislative Endorsements 174
The Impact of Ballot Competitiveness and Candidate Status in Shaping Legislative Endorsements 183 The Impact of Legislators’, Propositions’ and Districts’ Characteristics on Legislative
Endorsements 187
PRELIMINARY CONCLUSION 190
CHAPTER 4 195
ARE BALLOT MEASURES “MAGIC CARPET RIDE” TO WIN ELECTIONS? THE IMPACT OF
ELITE ENDORSEMENTS ON CANDIDATE VOTE CHOICES 195
INTRODUCTION 196
BALLOT MEASURES, ELITE ENDORSEMENTS, AND CANDIDATE ELECTIONS: A
REVIEW 198
Evidence of Priming: Racial Issues, the Nuclear Freeze, Gay Marriage Ban, and the Minimum Wage 199
AGGREGATE-LEVEL ANALYSIS 202
The 2014 Political Environment 203
Theoretical Expectations 204
Case Selection, Data, and Variable Specification 205
Variable Specification 206
Method Specification 207
Results 207
SURVEYING CALIFORNIA VOTERS ABOUT PROPOSITIONS 64 AND 67:
INDIVIDUAL-LEVEL ANALYSIS 210
The 2016 Political Environment 210
Theoretical Expectations 212
Case Selection, Data and Variable Specification 213
Data and Method Specification 213
The 2016 Elections in California: A Crowded Ballot 216
Variable Specification 218
Results 220
Proposition 64 and the Presidential Race 220
Did Proposition 67 Help Atkins? 225
PRELIMINARY CONCLUSION 229
CHAPTER 5 232
DIRECT LEGISLATION: POLITICAL ELITES’ TOOL? 232
MAIN FINDINGS OF THIS RESEARCH 233
The Level of Political Elites’ Involvement in Direct Legislation Contests 233 Explaining the Involvement of Political Elites in Direct Legislation Contests 236 Beyond Political Elites’ Involvement: The Effect on Candidate Elections 239 Direct Legislation and Representative Democracy: Its Implications 241
LIMITATIONS AND FUTURE RESEARCH 247
Appendix to Chapter 2 250
Appendix to Chapter 3 279
Appendix to Chapter 4 305
