Bio-Economy - Chances, Challenges, and Perspective of the System as a Whole

1

Bio-Economy: Chances,

Challenges, and Perspective of

the System as a Whole

Andreas Pfennig

Products, Environment, and Processes (PEPs) Department of Chemical Engineering

Université de Liège

www.chemeng.uliege.be/pfennig andreas.pfennig@uliege.be

presented at CAPE Forum 2019, 24.-26.11.2019, Liège, Belgium

agenda

2



motivation



world population



utilization of land-area



bio-economy: chances & challenges



consequences

Pfennig, A., 2019:

Sustainable Bio‐ or CO2economy: Chances, Risks, and Systems Perspective.

ChemBioEng Reviews, 6(3), 90-104. https://doi.org/10.1002/cben.201900006 Pfennig, A., 2019:

some major drivers

world population

7.600.000.000

food

2.8 kg/(cap d)

energy

21.000 kWh/(cap a)

materials

ca. 0.9 kg/(cap d)

fossil resources

5.6 kg/(cap d)

land area

agricultural: 7.000 m

2

_/cap

3

THE major driver

world population

7 600 000 000

food

2.8 kg/(cap d)

energy

21 000 kWh/(cap a)

materials

ca. 0.9 kg/(cap d)

fossil resources

5.6 kg/(cap d)

land area

agricultural: 7 000 m

2

_/cap

CO

2

???

modelling approach



not an IAM (integrated assessment model)



based on simple balances:



influence of individual parameters directly visible



main drivers easy to realize

negative influence of too detailed models:

H. Hasse, 2003: Thermodynamics of Reactive Separations.

in: K. Sundmacher, A. Kienle (Eds):

Reactive Distillation. Status and Future Directions.

Wiley-VCH, Weinheim

5

world population × demand per person

required land area =

land-area specific productivity

UN world-population scenarios

6 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 w o rl d p o p u la ti o n i n b ill io n year low variant medium variant high variant to d a y source: United Nations

World Population Prospect 2019 Revision

development of UN-WPP predicting for 2050

7 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 7 8 9 10 11 12 w o rl d p o p u la ti o n 2 0 5 0 i n b ill io n year of publication high variant mediu m varia nt low va riant 11.62 billion in 2050 fitted range

future development of world population

1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 e x p e c te d d e v e lo p m e n t to d a y w o rl d p o p u la ti o n i n b ill io n year uppe r lim it 11.62 billion in 2050

Club of RomeIPCC SR1.5

EU

varian t:high

medium low

19600 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 500 1000 1500 overall - seven ma jor crops over all ve getal prim ary p roduc ts s p e c if ic p ro d u c ti v it y i n k c a l / (m 2 a ) year seve n m ajor cro ps

land-area specific agrigultural productivity

9

seven major crops: • corn • wheat • rice • soybeans • sugar cane • oil palm • barley

future land-area utilization

10 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 +10%, biodiversity 20% bio energy la n d a re a i n m 2 p e r p e rs o n year vegan nutrition pasture

feed (additional demand)

biobased materials

20% afforestation

future land-area utilization

11 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 high varia_nt mediu m var_iant +10%, biodiversity 20% bio energy la n d a re a i n m 2 p e r p e rs o n year vegan nutrition pasture

feed (additional demand)

biobased materials

20% afforestation

+15%, ecologic farming

available area for population scenario:

options for bio-based chemicals 2050

gen feedstock intermediates radius km fi rs t g e n e ra ti o n sugar beet sugar or ethanol + CO2 10.4 ethanol 14.6 ethylene 18.7

sugar cane sugar or ethanol + CO2 7.5

ethanol 10.5

corn sugar or ethanol + CO2 13.4

ethanol 18.7

wheat sugar or ethanol + CO2 17.5

ethanol 24.5

oil palm plant oil 11.4

rape seed plant oil 30.1

s

e

c

o

n

d miscanthus/reeds sugar or ethanol + CO2 5.7

ethanol 7.9

wood sugar or ethanol + CO2 14.8

ethanol 20.7 th ir d corn straw sugar or ethanol + CO2 20.1 ethanol 28.2

wheat straw sugar or ethanol + CO2 23.2

ethanol 32.5

0 500 1000 1500 area in m2_/cap

goal

ranges:

maximum national and world average productivity projected for 2050 color:

■technically realized

bio- vs. CO

₂

-economy in Europe



utilize CO

2

from point source*



methane

800 € / tC



methanol

610 € / tC



utilize CO

2

from air*



methane

1310 € / tC



methanol

1120 € / tC



starch from wheat or corn

560 € / tC



crude oil

≈ 360 € / tC

* 0.025€/kWh, efficiencies electrolysis 80% & process 90%

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conclusion

14

bio-based chemistry:



competition for land area



cheaper, developed technology



generation of biomass



third generation not sufficient



second generation: complex processes



first generation:



simpler and established processes



synergy with food production

CO

₂

-based chemistry:



more expensive, new processes

choices

15

A. CO

₂

-based chemistry



significant economic & technological risks for our future

B. bio-based chemistry, conventional



more people undernourished



cut down forests

C. bio-based chemistry, vegan, 2 children per family



cheap, developed, enough space for ecology

You choose with your daily choices!

Pfennig, A., 2019:

Sustainable Bio‐ or CO2economy: Chances, Risks, and Systems Perspective.

ChemBioEng Reviews, 6(3), 90-104. https://doi.org/10.1002/cben.201900006 Pfennig, A., 2019:

Klima-Wende-Zeit. Books on Demand, Norderstedt.

Bio-Economy: Chances,

Challenges, and Perspective of

the System as a Whole

Andreas Pfennig

Products, Environment, and Processes (PEPs) Department of Chemical Engineering

Université de Liège

www.chemeng.uliege.be/pfennig andreas.pfennig@uliege.be