Guaranteed numerical alternatives to structural
identiability testing
I. Braems 1
, L.Jaulin 2
,M. Kieer 1
and E.Walter 1
1
LaboratoiredesSignauxetSystemes,CNRS-Supelec-UniversiteParis-Sud
91192Gif-sur-Yvette,France
fbraems,kieer,walterg@lss.supelec.fr
2
Laboratoired'IngenieriedesSystemesAutomatises,Universited'Angers
2bldLavoisier,49045Angers,France
luc.jaulin@univ-angers.fr
Abstract
Testing models for structural identiability is particularly
important forknowledge-basedmodels. Ifseveralvaluesof
theparametervectorleadtothesameobservedbehaviorof
the model, then one may try to modify the experimental
setup to eliminate this ambiguity (qualitative experiment
design). Thetediousnessofthealgebraic manipulationsin-
volvedmakescomputeralgebraparticularlyattractive. The
purposeofthispaperistoexploreanalternativeroutebased
onguaranteednumericalcomputation. Anewdenitionof
identiabilityinadomainallowstestingtobecastintothe
frameworkofconstraint-satisfactionproblems,andmakesit
possibletousethetoolsofintervalanalysisandintervalcon-
straint propagation to get guaranteed answers. When the
data have already been collected, the notion of structural
identiabilitymaynotbethemostpertinentconcept. This
paper shows how interval analysis and interval constraint
propagationcanagain beused tobypassthe identiability
studyandestimateevenparametersthatarenotidentiable
uniquely.
Keywords: constraintsatisfactionproblems,compart-
mental models, experiment design, guaranteed numer-
icalcomputation, identiability, identication, interval
analysis,parameterestimation.
1 Introduction
Underlyingthenotionofidentiabilityisthequestionof
whetheronecanhopeuniquelyto estimatetheparam-
eters of a model from the experimental data that can
becollected. This question is particularly relevantfor
knowledge-basedmodels, where theseparameters have
aconcrete meaning, and whenever decisionsare to be
takenonthebasisoftheirnumericalvalues. Theimpor-
tance of thenotion has been recognized morethan 50
yearsago[1],butmuchremainstobedoneto convince
potential usersand to provide them with tools to test
theirmodelsforidentiability. Asthealgebraicmanip-
ulations involved in identiability testing can become
really tedious, the use of computer algebra and elimi-
nation theory to obtain reliable results is particularly
attractive,see,e.g.,[2]-[7].
The purpose of the present paper is to explore an al-
ternative route, mainly based on numerical computa-
tion,anddiscussitsadvantagesanddisadvantages. The
paperis organizedasfollows.Thenotion ofstructural
identiabilityisbrieyrecalledinSection2,wheresome
limits of aformal approach are alsomentioned. These
limits are the rationale for the development of an al-
ternativenumericalapproachbasedonintervalanalysis
and interval constraint propagation in Section 3. Sec-
tion 4 shows that these toolsmay make it possibleto
bypassthestructuralidentiabilitystudyaltogetherby
allowing oneto characterize, in a guaranteed way, the
set ofall valuesof the parametervectorthat are con-
sistentwiththeexperimentaldatacollectedonthesys-
temtobemodeled.Itthusbecomespossibletoidentify
unidentiablemodels.
2 Formal approach to structural identiability
Structuralidentiabilityis studiedin anidealizedcon-
text where thedata are assumedto begenerated bya
model with the same structure M(:) as the model to
beidentied.Theunknowntruevalueoftheparameter
vector is denoted by p
, and is assumed to belong to
somepriorfeasiblesetPR dimp
. Fromnoise-freedata
generatedbyM(p
),onewantstoestimatetheparam-
eters of amodel M(bp). In these idealized conditions,
it isalwayspossibleto tunepb so asto ensurethat the
outputs generated by the \model"M(bp) are identical
to those generated by the\process" M(p
) forall in-
putsandtimes.Theidentityoftheseexternalbehaviors
will thenbeexpressedconciselyby
M(b
p)=M(p
): (1)
Theidentiabilityof bponlydepends onthenumberof
solutionsof(1)forbpin P.Iftheset Sofallthesesolu-
tionsreducestothesingletonfp
g,thenpbisglobally(or
ThM06-6
Proceedings of the 40th IEEE
Conference on Decision and Control
Orlando, Florida USA, December 2001
uniquely) identiable at p . If Sisdenumerable (most
oftennite),thenbpislocally (orcountably)identiable
at p
.If Sis notdenumerable, thenbpisunidentiable
at p
. Ofcourse, agiven entrypb
i
of bpmay be locally
orglobally identiableevenwhentheentireparameter
vectorisunidentiable.
Nowthisidentiabilitystudymaytakeplacebeforedata
collection. This is actuallyadvisable, asthe resultsof
theidentiabilitystudymayimpactontheexperiments
tobeconducted[8].Nonumericalvalueisthenavailable
for p
, and we would like our conclusions to be valid
whateverthevalueofp
maybe. Unfortunately,thisis
notalwayspossible,whichledtothenotionofstructural
(orgeneric)identiability.Aparameterp
i
isstructurally
globally identiable (s.g.i.) if, foralmost any p
in P,
the set Sof the solutions of (1) for pb
i
reduces to the
singletonp
i
.Itisstructurally locallyidentiable (s.l.i.)
if,foralmostanyp
in P,Sisdenumerableornite.If
Sisnotdenumerable,foralmostanyp
inP,thenp
i is
structurallyunidentiable. Ofcourse,piss.g.i. ors.l.i.
ifallofitscomponentsares.g.i. ors.l.i.
When testing model structures for identiability, the
standardapproachisintwosteps. Duringtherststep,
the equations to besatised bypb for (1) to hold true
areestablished, andthis is usuallymuch facilitatedby
theuseofcomputeralgebra. Veryoften,(1) translates
intoasetofequations:
r(bp )=r(p
): (2)
During the second step, the set of all solutions of (2)
for pb is sought for. When each component of r(p) is
polynomialin the entries of p; elimination theory can
beused to put this set of polynomial equationsinto a
triangularform
t(bp)=t(p
); (3)
whereagaineachcomponentoft(p)ispolynomialinthe
entriesofp. It thenbecomespossible,at leastinprin-
ciple,tosolve(3)bysolvingasuccessionofpolynomial
equationsinasingleunknown,inawaysimilartothat
usedtosolvelinearsystemsofequationsbytriangular-
ization,andthustoobtainthesetSofalltheparameter
vectors b
pthatsatisfytheseequations. Themethodused
tobuild(3)from(2)guaranteesthatnosolutioncanbe
lost,soifthedegreeofeachofthepolynomialequations
tobesolvedintheprocessisgenericallyone,thenithas
beenproven that pis s.g.i. Evenwhen this is notso,
itis sometimespossibleto generatetheset of allsolu-
tionsof(2)forpbasanexplicitfunctionofp
,whathas
beencalledexhaustive modeling [9]. Providedthat the
cardinalofthissetkeepsthesamevalueforalmostany
valueofp
,thisformalapproachallowsonetoconclude
about thestructural identiability of themodel under
study.
Testingmodelsforstructuralidentiabilityisaveryin-
teresting domain of application for computer algebra,
becauseonelooksforasimpleanswertothesimplequal-
itativequestionofwhetherthemodeliss.g.i. Thereare,
howeverseveralreasonswhytheapproachmayturnout
nottobesatisfactory.
{ (1) may not translate into polynomialequations, or
thetranslationmaymaketheproblemexceedinglycom-
plicated tosolve.
{Reachingaconclusionmayrequireformal manipula-
tionsthat aremuchmorecomplicatedthanallowedby
present-daycomputers.
{ Thedegreeof someof theunivariatepolynomialsto
besolvedmaybetoolargeforananalyticexpressionto
exist,whichthenimposestheuseofnumericalmethods
and thelossoftheformalnature ofthesolution.
{Thenumberofreal solutionsforthebp
i
's(theonlyones
in whichweareinterested) maydependonthevalueof
p
insuchawaythatnoconclusionofastructuralna-
ture can be reached. Thefollowing examplewill serve
to illustrate this point. It will be treated in Section 3
withthealternativeapproachadvocatedin thispaper.
´ ( ) p ¤
p ¤
−2
−2 2
−4 4
−6 6
−a a
−1 1 2
Figure 1:OutputofthepolynomialmodelofExample1;
thegreyzonecorrespondstothevaluesofp
for
whichthemodelisnotuniquelyidentiable
Example1 Consider the model
(p)=p(p 1)(p+1);
with one parameterpin P=[ 2;2]and noinput. For
any (bp;p
) inPP,M(bp)=M(p
) ifandonly if
p
(p
1)(p
+1) p(bbp 1)(bp+1)=0:
The set of feasible values for pbis a singleton for p
2
] 2; a[[]a;2[, a pair for p
= a or p
= a, and
a triple for p
in ] a;a[, with a = 2
p
3
(see Figure 1).
So unique identiability isnot a structural property in
P.
3 Alternative guaranteed numericalapproaches
Theroute tobefollowedwilldependonwhether anu-
mericalvaluecanbegiventop
.
3.1 Anumericalvalue can be given to p
This willbethecase,for instance, whenasatisfactory
model with structureM(:) hasalreadybeenidentied
fromexperimentaldataandoneisinterestedinestimat-
ingallthemodelswiththesamestructureandthesame
externalbehavior.ItthensuÆcestotakeforp
thenu-
mericalvalueofthevectoroftheestimatedparameters,
andtogetareliableestimateofthenumberofsolutions
of (2)for bpbyusing aguaranteedsolver. This canbe
donebymeansofintervalanalysis[10],[11]. Solving(2)
amountsto nding the zeros of thefunction f dened
inPby
f(bp)=r(bp ) r(p
): (4)
When dimp = dimf(p), under the hypothesis that f
iscontinuouslydierentiable,anintervalNewtonsolver
can be employed to enclose all these zeros in a union
L of interval vectors (or boxes)[bp] [12]. The width of
these boxesdependson atuning parameter witha di-
rectimpactontheamountofcomputationrequired.In
this solverwe used the Newton-Gauss-Seidel operator
N
GS
([p]) [12],which hasthefollowingproperties:
(i) each zero b
p of (4) in any box [p] satises b
p 2
N
GS ([p]);
(ii)ifN
GS
([p])=;,thenthereisnozeroof(4)in [p];
(iii) ifN
GS
([p]) isstrictly inside [p], then [p]contains
exactlyonezerooff.
Properties(i)and(ii)indicatethattheresultisreliable
in thesense that nozero canbelost. Property(iii) is
usedto evaluatetheactualnumberof zeros. IfL isre-
duced to a single box [bp] and (iii) is satised for [bp],
then themodel isglobally identiable at p
. Else, [bp]
may contain one ormorezeros. A solution is then to
split [bp] into two subboxes[p
1
] and [p
2
] and to apply
N
GS
againon[p
1
]and [p
2
]. Ifall boxesin L aresuch
that (iii) issatised,thenthemodelislocally identi-
ableat p
.
3.2 Aprior domain can be given to p
One of the interest of structural identiability is that
itcanbetestedbeforeexperimentation andthus serve
asatool forqualitativeexperimentdesign [8]. Onthe
other hand, the experimenter may feel uncomfortable
withthefact that globalidentiability isnotnecessar-
ily astructuralproperty(as shown in Example1) and
that, evenif the model is s.g.i., there maybe atypical
regionswheretheconclusionreachedmaybefalse.This
motivatesthefollowingnewdenition.
Denition1 The parameterp
i
is globallyidentiable
in P(g.i.i.P)if
8(p
;p)b 2PP; M(bp)=M(p
))pb
i
=p
i
; (5)
andtheparametervectorpisg.i.i.Pifallitscomponents
are g.i.i.P.
Denition 1 no longer allows the existence of atypical
regionsinPandunderlinestheimportanceofthesearch
domainP. Iftheproblem
M(bp)=M(p
); kbp p
k
1
>0 (6)
hasnosolutionfor(bp;p
)inPP,thenpisg.i.i.P. This
makesiteasytoexpressthetestofglobalidentiability
asaconstraintsatisfactionproblem (CSP).ACSPcon-
sistsofasetofvariables(here,fbp
1
;:::;pb
n
;p
1
;:::;p
n g),a
setofdomainsassumedtocontainthesevariables(here
we shall consider intervals, and P will be taken as a
box, but more sophisticated search domains, such as
unions of boxes, could also be considered), and a set
of constraints to be satised (here, those in (6)). In-
tervalconstraintpropagation(ICP)hasbeendeveloped
to deliverguaranteedouterapproximationsofthesolu-
tionsofCSP's(see,e.g.,[13]andthereferencestherein).
ICPcontractstheinitialdomainsintosmallerones.Ifa
deadlockisreached,bisection ofthedomainofinterest
canonceagainbeapplied, atthecostofanincreasein
complexity.
Inpractice,(6)isreplacedby
M(bp)=M(p
);kbp p
k
1
>"; (7)
where " is some positive coeÆcient to be set by the
user to expressa distancebelowwhich parametervec-
tors willnotbedistinguished. Weshallthen talkof "-
g.i.i.Pparametersormodels. For"-g.i.i.Pmodels,ICP
may allow a conclusion to be reached without a sin-
gle bisection,which isparticularly attractiveforlarge-
dimensional problems.
2
−2 2
−2 L
D 1 £D 1 D 1 D 2 £D 2
D 2
Figure 2:L,ascomputedinthe(bpp
)spaceforExam-
ple2,andthedomainsD1 andD
2
;sinceD
2 D2
intersects L,Mmaynotbe"-g.i.i.D
2
,whereas
itis"-g.i.i.D
1
Example2 Consider again the model of Example 1,
and the domains D
1
=[0:8;2]and D
2
=[0:3;2]. With
"=0:02,in1msonaPentium350,ICPprovedthatM
is"-g.i.i.D
1
;butcouldnotconcludeaboutwhetherMis
"-g.i.i.D
2
. Figure 2presents an outer approximation L
of allsolutions of (7)for (bp;p
)in [ 2;2][ 2;2], as
2 2
itmay exist(bp;p
)in D
2 D
2
satisfying(7). Itcanbe
shown on this simple example that the actual solution
set Sof (7) is included in the ellipse dened by (bp+
p
) 2
b pp
=1. Theconstraint kb
p p
k
1
>"in(7)
implies that a part of this ellipse does not belong toS.
Thisanalysis conrms thatM isnot"-g.i.i.D
2
.
Example3 Consider the following compartmental
model, usedto describe the behavior of adrug suchas
Glafenine administeredorally:
M(p): 8
>
>
>
>
<
>
>
>
>
: _ q
1
= (p
1 +p
2 )q
1 +u;
_ q
2
= p
1 q
1 (p
3 +p
5 )q
2
;
_ q
3
= p
2 q
1 +p
3 q
2 p
4 q
3
;
1
= p
6 q
2
;
2
= p
7 q
3 :
(8)
The initial conditions on the state variables q
i are all
taken to be zero. M(bp) = M(p
) translates into (2)
wherethe components ofr(p) arethecoeÆcientsof the
transfermatrixassociatedwith(8).Forthistobevalid,
the entries of this matrix should be expressed in some
canonical form. For P=[0:6;1]
7
and "=10 9
; ICP
ndsin 0:01s that the model is "-g.i.i.P. On P=R 7
;
the modelis not s.g.i. [8].
4 Bypassing the identiability study
When the data have already been collected, it is no
longersoimportanttoobtainconclusionsthatarevalid
forall(oralmostall)possiblevaluesofp
.Instead,one
wouldliketocharacterizethesetSofallvaluesof b
pthat
areconsistentwiththesedata,inasensetobespecied.
Intervalanalysis can also be used forthis purpose, as
illustratedbythenexttwosections.Theidentiability
analysis is thus bypassed, to address the actual prob-
lem of interest directly, namely nding all optimal or
acceptable models based on the data. The resultsare
guaranteed,irrespectiveofwhetherthemodelstructure
is globally identiable, contrary to those provided by
traditionallocalnumericalmethods.
4.1 Globaloptimization
Assumethat thesetSofinterestisthesetofallglobal
minimizersof asuitablecostfunction J(:;:),obtained,
e.g., by amaximum-likelihood approach based on hy-
pothesesaboutthenoisecorruptingthedata
S=fbp2P jJ(bp ;y )6J(p;y) 8p2Pg; (9)
where y is the (numerically known) vector of all the
datacontaininginformationaboutp.
OneofthemainnumericaldiÆcultiesattachedwiththis
approach isthe fact that J(p;y ) isusually notconvex
withrespecttop,sothere maybeseveralglobal mini-
mizersp,b aswellasparasiticlocalminimizersthatmay
searchonly.Evenwithmoreglobaltoolssuch assimu-
lated annealing,adaptiverandom search orgenetical-
gorithms, one will never be sure in a nite time that
all globalminimizers havebeenlocated. Deterministic
globaloptimizationbasedonintervalanalysis,exampli-
edbyHansen'salgorithm[11],doesnotsuerfromthe
samelimitations.Itallowsonetoeliminatepartsofthe
priorsearchspacePthatcannotcontainanyglobalmin-
imizer ofthe costfunction,and to reduce theboxesof
parameterspacethatcannotbeeliminated.Theresults
obtainedareguaranteed,in thesensethat anouterap-
proximationofSisobtained.Itmayevenbepossibleto
estimate parameters that are notglobally identiable,
asevidencedbythefollowingexample.
p 1 p 2 p 3 u
1 2
Figure3: Two-compartmentmodelofExample4
Example4 As in [14], consider the system described
by Figure 3. The evolution of the vector q =(q
1
;q
2 )
T
ofthe quantitiesof materialinthetwocompartmentsis
describedby thelineartime-invariant stateequation
_ q
1
= (p
1 +p
3 )q
1 +p
2 q
2 +u;
_ q
2
=p
3 q
1 p
2 q
2 :
(10)
Take the system in zero initial condition (q(0 )= 0),
and assumethata Dirac inputu(t)=Æ(t)is appliedto
Compartment1,soq
1 (0
+
)=1andq
2 (0
+
)=0. Assume
also that the content of Compartment 2 is observed at
16 instants oftime, according to
y
i
=q
2 (t
i )+n
i
; i=1;:::;16; (11)
wheren
i
issomemeasurementnoise.Itistrivialtoshow
that the corresponding model outputssatisfy
i
(p)=( exp(
1 t
i
) exp(
2 t
i
)); i=1;:::;16;
(12)
where ,
1 and
2
are simple functions of p
1
;p
2 and
p
3
. The parameter vector to be estimated is p =
(p
1
;p
2
;p
3 )
T
.Theexperimentaldatay
i
,togetherwiththe
times t
i
at which theyhave been collected are given in
Table1. Nopriorinformationisavailableaboutp,and
the measurementsy
i
areall deemedequally reliable, so
the costfunction ischosen as
J(p;y )= 16
X
i=1 (y
i
i (p))
2
: (13)
For P = [0:01;2:0][0:05;3:0][0:05;3:0], and with
its precision parameters "
p and "
J
both equal to 10 9
,
inP areinthe boxes
[1:925402;1:925404][0:232717;0:232719]
[0:145075;0:145077]
and
[0:232717;0:232719][1:925402;1:925404]
[0:145075;0:145077]:
Notethat these boxescan bededucedfrom one another
byexchangingtheirintervalvaluesforp
1 andp
2
.Thisis
consistentwiththeconclusionofanidentiabilitystudy.
It seems important to stress that the conclusion of the
presentestimationwasnotbasedonsuchastudy,which
canthereforebedispensedwith. Optimizingrstwithre-
spectto;
1 and
2
andthenestimatingpwithaguar-
anteed interval-based method, takes about one minute
[14 ].
Table1: Experimentaldata
t
i y
i
t
i y
i
1 0:0532 9 0:0099
2 0:0478 10 0:0081
3 0:0410 11 0:0065
4 0:0328 12 0:0043
5 0:0323 13 0:0013
6 0:0148 14 0:0015
7 0:0216 15 0:0060
8 0:0127 16 0:0126
Insteadof looking for allglobal minimizersof thecost
function, onemaylook forthe set Sofall values of p
such that thevalue ofthe costfunction is below some
threshold. Thismaybeimportantinpractice,asthere
doesnotseemtobeanyseriousreasontoeliminateval-
ues of p that would correspond to values of the cost
function almost equal to the absolute minimum. Sis
then dened by an inequality, and the methods to be
usedarethoseofthenextsection. Notethatsuchvalues
ofpcouldnotbeobtainedbyastructuralidentiability
studybasedonpurely algebraicmanipulations.
4.2 Setsdened by inequalities
Assumenowthat
S=fbp2Pjg (bp ;y )60g; (14)
where g (b
p;y )60is tobeunderstood componentwise.
Smay be a condence region (at some level of con-
dencetobespeciedbytheuser).The(usuallyscalar)
inequality g(bp;y ) 6 0 dening Sis then deduced by
probabilisticconsiderationsfrom hypothesesaboutthe
statisticaldistributionofthenoisecorruptingthedata.
Theinequalitiesin(14)mayalsoexpressthattheerrors
i
correspondingmodel outputs
i
(p) lie betweenknown
bounds.Thiscorrespondstoparameterbounding orset-
membershipestimation [15].
In both cases, characterizing S can be cast into the
frameworkofset inversionandperformedusingtheal-
gorithm SIVIA [16]. In this algorithm, a positiveac-
curacy coeÆcient"must alsobetuned by theuser,to
choosethewidth belowwhichuncertainboxeswill not
bebisected.
0 5
0 5
p 1 p 2
Figure 4: ProjectionofSontotheplane(p
1 ,p
2 )
Example5 Consider againtheproblem ofExample4.
Take P = [0;5]
3
. Assume now that pb is accept-
able if the absolute deviations between the data y
i and
corresponding model outputs
i
satisfy jy
i
i (bp )j 6
0:002; i =1;:::;16, which can of course be reformu-
lated as g (bp;y ) 6 0. For " = 0:0025, in 2 mn on a
Pentium233, SIVIAcomputesanouterapproximation
Sof the setSdenedby(14):Sconsistsof twodiscon-
nectedsubsetscontainedinthe boxes
[1:5046;2:9546][0:22245;0:25954][0:12061;0:22069]
and
[0:22245;0:25954][1:5046;2:9546][0:12061;0:22069]:
The projection of Sonto the plane (p
1
;p
2
) is given in
Figure4. Thefactthatp
1 andp
2
canbeexchangedwith-
outmodifyingthemodelbehaviorexplainsthesymmetry
of the gure.
5 Conclusions
Testingmodelsforidentiabilityisimportantinatleast
three cases:
{whentheparametersto beidentied haveaphysical
meaningandonewantstoestimatetheiractualvalues,
{whenstatevariablesthatcannotbemeasureddirectly
are to be estimated from the available measurements
and themodelbeingbuilt,
{whenadecisionistobetakenbasedonthenumerical
valuesoftheparametersorstatevariables.
Whenthedatahavenotbeencollectedyet,oneisinter-
estedin aconclusionthat isasindependentaspossible
from the numerical value of p
. This conclusion may
leadoneto modifythe locationand natureof thesen-
sorsandactuatorsinaneorttoimproveidentiability
[8]. We have shown here that it may depend on the
value of p
in such a way that no generic conclusion
canbereached. Thisledustoproposinganalternative
approachbasedonanewdenition ofidentiability.A
parametervectorpissaidto begloballyidentiablein
Pifitisgloballyidentiableforallvaluesofp
inP. We
havebriey explainedhowinterval analysis and inter-
valconstraintpropagationcan beusedtotest whether
amodelstructureisgloballyidentiableinPforagiven
setP.
Whenthedatahavealreadybeencollected,theactual
question of interest is: what is the set of all values of
the parametervectorthatareacceptable, given thedata
andwhatweknowaboutthe noise? Identiabilitythen
becomesawaytogetapartialanswertothisquestion,
in an idealized context. We have shown that interval
analysis may make it possible to reach a guaranteed
conclusion in a more realistic context. There are, of
course, limitations to the complexity of the problems
thatcanbehandled,andoneofthechallengesofinter-
valanalysisistoenlargetheclassoftheproblemsthat
can be treated.Thenotionofintervalconstraintprop-
agation, for instance, allows one to limit the number
of bisections needed, which is anextremely important
contributiontorepellingthecurseofdimensionality.
We have only considered the notion of identiability,
where the structures of the model and process are as-
sumedtobeidentical.Thesametypeofstudycouldbe
conducted in thecontext ofdistinguishability, where it
is assumed that the structure of themodel maydier
from that oftheprocess [17]. The notionof structural
distinguishability could similarly bereplaced by ano-
tionofdistinguishabilityinP, andthetoolsofinterval
analysis could again be used to test whether a given
model structure isdistinguishable from another onein
thisnewsense.
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