and SOCIAL COUNCIL
Distr.
LIMITED
E/CN.14/P0P/42
23 November 1971
Original ENGLISH
IInmntU m tan in nin III IB in uia hi iszn in in maims
ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR AFRICA African Population Conference Accra, Ghana, 9~t8 December 1971
THE ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE POPULATION OF AFRICA IN 1960 AND ITS POSSIBLE EVOLUTION UP TO 1980
International Labour Office
SESSION VIII
M71-3090
E/CK.14/P0P/42
Contents
Pages
Introduction • -, ?
Total Population 2
Economically Active Population 2-5
Crude and Specific Activity Rates 5.3
Female Activity Rates 8_10
Distribution of the Economically Active
Population by Economic Sector 11-14
Possible Evolution of Total Population and Active Population of Africa between I960
and 1980:
Total Population 14-15
Economically Active Population 15-16
Projection of Male Activity Rates ' ig
Projection of Female Activity Rates 16-17 Some Results of the Projections . 17-18
Appendix 19-27^
TBS ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE POPULATION OF AFRICA IN I960 AXD ITS POSSIBLE EVOLUTION UP TO 19SO (Paper prepared by the International Labour Office)
Introduction
In connection with the World Employment Programme, the1 International Labour Office has made estimates and projections of the economically active population, by sex and by age group, for the majority cf countries and territories for the period 1950-198!;, and the results are due to be published shortly,i The purpose of this paper is xo provide' a brief analysis of the main data relating to Africs for the period 1960-1980,
2. The first part examines the characteristics of the demo graphic and manpower situation in Africa in I960 while t-hs- second deals with the foreseeable changes between I960 and 1930, Countries have been classified by region according to United Nations prac
tice (see Table I of the Appendix).iJ The United Nations estimates
and projections of population have been used.
5. Only those counti-j.es and territories which had a population of at least 250,COO in I960 have been featured. The remainder have bson the subject of an over-all estimate and a projection for each region, which have b?en incorporated in the corresponding regional totals shown in the tables.
1/ TLO: Labour Force Projections (1971 edition), Fart I Africa (Geneva", I§1I)
2/ see United Nations: Demographic Yearbook, 1969, p.72.
-V -w... »,■
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Page 2
I. TOTAL POPULATION AND ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE POPULATION 0? AFRICA IN I960
Total Population
4. The United Nations estimates quoted iie:ce relating ''oo the - population of Africa, by sex c.nd by "age,±/ are based on censuses or similar population surveys carried out towards the end of the 1950s or the beginning of the 1950s. Por some countries, where information on the population and its distribution by sex and age was inadequate, quantitatively r.nd qualitatively, the estimates have been defined by using mod el.3 based on assumed fertility and
mortality rates.
5. In the middle of I960, Africa had acout 270 rai.llion inhabi tants or some 9 per cent of the world's population: a Little over four-fifths.of the African population were concentrated in the Western (30 per cent), Eastern (29 per cent) and northern (24 per cent) regions.
6. The figures in table I show that, in Africa t-s a whole,
the female population predominates slightly (30.2 per cent).
Women are proportionately more numerous in Middle iirLea (51.4 per cent) and the Eastern region (50,7 per cent), whereas the male population predominates slightly in Northern (50.4 per cent) and Western Africa (50.2 per cent). In Southern Africa."the two sexes are about balanced. In about two-thirds of the individual countries women are more numerous. Man arc more .numerous through out Northern Africa, in four countries of Westorn Africa ('Nigeria, Ghana, Ivory Coast and Gambia), in two of Eastern Africa (Southern Rhodesi? and Mauritius) and also in Angola, ^qivitorirj. Guinea, the Republic of South Africa and Namibia. With a i'ev; exceptions,, these are countries of immigration.
7. Analysis of the distribution by age group tsho-ws thax th-3 population is young, since 43 per cent of Africans are under the age of 15; 54 per cent are between 15 and b4 and a bar- 3 per cent are over that age. Thus, from the point of view of manpower potential, Africa's age pattern is unfavourable.
Economically Active Population
8. The economically active population hac bee:i caioulatod on the basis of ILO estimates of activitivity ratss by sex and age group, which have been used conjointly with the United Nations estimates of total population in I960.
1/ bee United Nations, Population I)iv;:.s:on: Populate on Estimates by Regions and Countries, 1950-1960. (i/or*?"^™Tal>er
No. 31, May 1970). ! ; " " ° *
9. To determine these activity rates-, the main statistical
sources have been population censuses and demographic or similar sample surveys. -In addition, the ILO has worked out models from which estimates can be made, chiefly on the basis of data fromthe same sources.
"^i ■ Fi^res for a date close t0 i960 (between 1956-66) have been
obtained from censuses undertaken in Northern and Southern African countries and in Ghana, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Mauritius, Mozambique and Angola. For the great majority of French-speaking
countries m Western.and Middle Africa, the results of population surveys were available. As the criteria used by African countries
to define labour force varied considerably,!/ the original statis
tics of the economically active population had first to'be adiusted m some cases in order to bring them into conformity with standard concepts. These adjustments have been made using empirical esti mates based on a certain number of observations.11. The data relating to age distribution also posed a number
ol problems. For some countries estimates have had to be made to lit tne data into the standard age groups adopted.12. In addition, the activity rates derived from population
censuses or surveys, carried out before or after I960 have been
^djusted .to obtain estimates for the middle of I960. This has ' been done by linear interpolation in all cases where at least
two series of comparable activity rates derived from population
censuses or surveys held before or after I960 were availableilable InIn
w?ththpn^^^njmnent has been mad* empirically in accordance
with the "models" specially constructed by the ILO.
vaJ-!r Hll the .countries lacking labour force statistics, as
Eastern Africa, empirical estimates have been made using the
if2USVenti°£ed- These *°dels, which **ve been workfd out Lf°r ea£? SGX1 3re baSed mai*ly on the functional rela between the pattern and level of activity rates by age
1/ For example, the minimum age limit ranges from 6 to 15•
lheinactiveernniniC?teg°rieS °f aCt±Ve PerSons are included in '
fnr thP ftZLP^Ulatl?ni e'f' employed persons seeking a job
working on their own account, salaried employees, wage earners
E/CN.14/P0P/42
Page 4
and by serin a*iven country . and the structure and level of economic and social development.- In other words, they reflect the influence of different social and cultural structures on activity rates, espe cially on those of women, in countries and regions with fairly
similar type of economic structure.
14. Within eech model, the relationship between activity rates by sex and by f:ge and the economic structure (the latter being , indicated by ,the proportion of male labour force in agriculture)^
has been calculated by means of a regression function which has been worked out_graphically. These functions have been derived from the statistics of countries or territories at different stages of eco nomic development, which, makes it possible to calculate typical activity rates for. each age group and sex at different degrees of' development.
15. On the basis of the available data (in point of fact, a number of African countries and territories had good statistics of the labour force and its composition by economic sector), these models were constructed for each sex:
(1) According to the statistics for Ghana, Upper Volta, Chad, Sierra Leone (women only), Togo and Guinea. These models have been used for Western and Middle Africa (excluding the territories under Portuguese and Spanish administration) and for Madagascar, Rwanda and Burundi. Women in Niger and Mauritania constituted an exceptional
•case in that the model used was based on the activity rates obser ved in 1964 in the parts of Chad where the Arab population predo
minates. _ . ■
(2) According to the regional statistics taken from the I960 Angola census. These particular models were used to make estimates for the territories in Western, Eastern and Middle Africa under Portuguese or Spanish administration. .
(3) According to the statistical data on the Bantu populations of the Republic of South Africa and Namibia taken from the Population .Censuses held between 1946 and I960. Tor women, however,.the model
employed is a compromise between the Bantu model and model (1). It has, in fact, the same profile as the latter and only differs from
1/ The economic structure and more, particularly the propor
tion of the labour force in agriculture is regarded as an indicator of the degree of economic development. The close relationship bet ween this proportion and certain indicators of economic and social progress (infant mortality, reproduction, literacy, urbanisation, school attendance rates, etc.) |s well known.'it in its lower activity rates for all ages. Models of this third type have also been used for the English-speaking countries and
for Ethiopia and Somalia. , • . .
Crude and Specific Activity Rates
16. The I960 economically active population of. Africa was esti mated at being 108,826,000, which in proportion to the total popu
lation gives a crude activity rate±/of 40.4 per cent.
17. Estimates for each country are given in Table II of the Appendix. In the v/estern, Eastern and Middle regions, crude activity rates are of the order of 44-45 per cent, i.e. markedly above the continental average. In Northern iifrica, the crude*.
rate is particularly low (29 per cent), but this is accounted for by the very limited economic activity of. women in Moslem countries In Southern Africa, the rate does not differ greatly from the
continental average.
18. Table I shows the regional distribution in percentage terms, of the total population and the economically active population.
The contribution of each region to the total labour force of the:, continent depends on three factors*- vis. the proportion of the total population, the sex and age^-'structure of the population and the sex and age structure of activity rates.
1/ By "Crude Participation Rate" or "Crude Activity Rate"
is meant the proportion of (economically active persons to the
total population-. . *'
<?/--Regional age structures do not differ substantially (see.Table I in the Appendix)1.
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Table 1 - Regional Distribution of the Total Population and
■Economically Active Population (Percentage)
Region
Africa:
Western Eastern \ r
kiddle ; '. : \
Northern Southern
Total Population
Both sexes
100.0 29.5 28.6 10.9 24.3 6.7
Men
100.6 29.7 28.3 10.7 24.5 6.8
Women
100.0 29.3 28.9 11.1 24.0
6.7
Economically active population . • Both
sexes
100.0 32.9 31.5 12.0 17.3 6.3
Men
100.0
29.1:'
29.7 10.8 23.6 .
6.8 .
■ Women
100.0
■41'.0-
35.3..
14.8- 3.7 5.2
19. The crude activity rates for Africrn countries and territo
ries range from 26.7 per cent in Algeria to 57.8 per cent in Mali Broadly speaking, the highest rates are encountered in the less developed non-Muslem French-speaking states, while the lowest are in the Moslem countries, which have a tendency to under-estimate the participation of women to economic activity. The same pheno menon is encountered in the African territories under Spanish or Portugese administration.
Male Activity Rates
v ■■.-. ■>!-;.- ■ .
For the.whole.af Africa, the crude activity rate for men is estimated at 55.5 per cent. The figures for the five regions did not depart very much from this avert* , but nevertheless reflect differences in de-reos of development. ' <■
201 Table 2 shows, the, Crude md~adjusted-1-/ activity rates for the five regions,
which have been classified in increasing order of economic development. The
negative correlation between the decree of economic development and the crude male activity rate.is.clear, especially if the adjusted regional rates are considered.
1/ Rates that have been refined to allow for differences in the ae-e structure of
the population^
Table 2 - Crude activity rates of males by region and adjusted rates according to degree of development (Percentages)
Region*
Eastern Africa
Middle' »
Western "
Northern "
Southern "
Degree of development
15.9 24.1 24.1 32.7 57.5
Crude Acti-,
vity Ratel/
58.2 56.0 54.3 53.5 55.5
Adjusted Acti
vity Ratel'
58.5 55.2 54.8 53.9 52.2
1/ Proportion of total male labour force in non-agricultural
activities in I960.
2/ Calculated on the basis of the male activity rates for the relevant age groups in the region and the standard age-distri bution (that of the male population in Africa).
21. The crude activity rates for individual countries vary fairly substantially - from 68 per cent in Equatorial Guinea, to 44.4 per cent for Reunion. These variations have two causes:
differences in the degree of economic development and differences in the age pattern. Nevertheless, variations in crude activity rates are less considerable in the case of men than in that of
women.
22. The common profile of male activity rates by age shows a peak -between the ages of 25 and 44, when virtually all men (98 per cent) belong to the active population. Before and after these ages, the rates.-tend to fall progressively.
...contd.
3/CN.14/P0P/42
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Table 3 -- Regional male activity rates by age group, I960
(Percentages)
Ase Group
10-14 15-19 20-24 25-44 45-54 55-64
65 and over
Africa
32,8 74,9
"32.7
97.8 97-2 92.8 71.1
Region
Western
. 33,4 69.3
89,8 "
97.5 97.5 93,0 75.2
Eastern
42,2 85-2 96.6 98.6 98.2 95.1 77.0
Middle
32.1 72-7 93-6 97:5 95.4 92.2 15.1
Northern
26.,9 72.4 90.9 97.4 96.4 90.8
64.3
Southern
12.0 68.4 94.6 98.1 . 97.6 91.7 56.2
23 Taking ^:i*a bis avho'e, therefore, the rates are approxi mately 33, 75 and 93 per cent for the 10-14, 15-19 and 20-24 age groups respectively. After the age of 45, they decline very slowly at first (97 per cent for the 45-54 age group) and then more sharply (9? and 71 per cent .for the 55-64-and 6.5 and over
a^e groups respectively). Nevertheless, Table 3 also shows that there are major differences in the regional rates, especially for
the 10-14, 15-19 and 65 and over age groups.. - ■
24 The comparatively advanced regions usually have lower rates especially for the first and last age groups. This is due to the fact that they normally have.longer schooling and sometimes social security schemes providing old age pensions.
Female Activity__Rates
25. A quarter of the women in Africa are economically active.
Activity rates'vary considerably between, regions and.also between individual countries and territories (see Table II in the Appendix) because of social and cultural factors, the degree of economic
development and the use of different criteria to define and calcu late the female labour force. Since the curves of female activity rates by age group vary substantially from one country and region to another, the curve .tor the continent as a whole is without
significance.
26 An analysis of the curves for each country and region
reveals three typical profiles. The first, which is represented by figure A in the graphs for the Western, Eastern and Middle regions, shows steadily increasing rates between the ages of 10 and 54; subsequently, the curve declines moderately between
the ages of 55 and 64 and'sharply after 65. This profile is
encountered in most ^of the countries, although sometimes the peak is reached a little earlier, as in the Ivory Coast and Mali.
27. Differences in activity rates between the countries in this first group are largely due to economic factors, since in each group the less advanced countries, have higher rates than the rela tively developed countries.
28. The second profile - which in figure A represents Northern Africa - is characterised by very low activity rates for all age groups. These curves are typical of the Moslem countries and of the African territories under Spanish or Portuguese administration It goes without saying that in these cases, differences between activity rates are also very slight.
29. The third profile represents the Republic of South Africa and only applies to one other African country - Namibia. It is characterised by a peak at the 20-24 age group and (with or with out a variant in the shape of a second peak between 45 and 54) is much the same as in the majority of European countries, the two Americas, certain Asian countries (Ceylon, Republic of China,
A + r- ^ O,Y\f\ Aiic+T^al -i Q aviH Now 7.£»a1 n-r\A 1/
etc.) and Australia and New Zealand.
1/ This type of curve is also characteristic of urban areas of the countries under consideration. See E. J>nti: "Sex-age pat terns of labour force participation by urban ard rural populations"
International Labour Review,.Volume 98, No. 6, December 1968, pp.
525-550.
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Page 10
FIGURE-A. FEMALE ACTIVITY RATES BY-AGE GROUP
(Vertical scale represents activity: rates, horizontal scale repre-
■: ' -sents age groups) ■
Distribution of the economically active population by
Economic Se.ctor ~~ . . .*
30. In an earlier study, the ILO gave an initial series of estimates of the sectoral and regional distribution of the African labour force based on the statistics available before 1967.A/ The revised estimates given here are derived from fuller, more detailed information''which makes it possi ble to improve the degree of accuracy of the regional figures and to maice tentative estimates by sex and by country.
31. For some countries, the available statistics are still very inadequate, and in certain cases only approximations have been given, these are no more than general indications because there are virtually no data on labour force and therefore on its distribution by sector. In addition,
estimates are often less reliable in the case of women than of men. Furthermore, the distribution of ncn-agricultural labour force between industry and services has sometimes
been estimated empirically - figure E gives the proportionate distribution of the African labour force in agriculture, indu stry and services.£/ In I960, a little over three quarters of these workers were in agriculture, which accounted for some 84,000,000. Industry accounted for a little under 10,000,000 persons (8.8 per cent of the total labour-force) while services absorbed 16,000,000 (14.5 per cent).
Economic patterns vary considerably from one region to another- (see Figure B). The highest percentage of the labour force in agriculture (a little over 85) is in Eastern Africa, whereas the proportion is lowest in Southern Africa (41.3 per cent), which is uhe most highly industrialised region and also the one with the highest proportion of labour force in services. The differen ces in the economic structure of the labour force are illustrated by the figures in Table 4. The regional distribution of African labour force by sector is uneven and demonstrates the differences
m degrees of development in I960.
,. . .i/ See s* Baum: "The world's labour force and its industrial distribution, 1950 and I960"; International Labour Review £f
yi?, JNos 1-2, January-February 1967, pp. 96-H2"
m ■¥■ u*der the United Nations International Standard Industrial
i^_sgifigation of all Economic activities, the aiffSi^TTantWi 4h ^ are divided into three main sectors:1. "Agriculture" comprising agriculture, forestry, hinting
and fishing; ' '&
2. "Industry" comprising mining and quarrying, manufacturing,
construction and utilities, i.e. electricity, gas, waterand sanitary services;
3. "Services" comprising commerce, banking, insurance, real
estate, transport, storage and communication as well as public and private services.E/CN.14/P0P/42
Page 12
FIGURE B. DISTRIBUTION OF TH3 SCOiTOMICALL?'ACTIVE POPULATION BY
ECONOMIC SECTOR IN I960
/See Film7
Table 4 - Distribution of the Economically Active Population by Region and Sector (Percentages)
Region
Africa Western Eastern Middle "
Northern Southern
Total
100.0 29.1"
29.7 10.8 23.6 6.8
Mer
Agri culture
100.0 29.6 ' 33.9 ■
11,0 21.6 3.9
l
Indu stry
100.0 28,2 16.2 11.1 24.3 2u.2
Ser vices
100.0
26.9 19.5 8*8 24.4 11.4
Total
i
100.0- 41-0 35.3 14.8 3.7 5.2
Women Agri
culture
100.0 33.7 39.0 17^5 2,4 2.4
Indu stry
100,0 56.6 18,3 3.3 13.4 S.4
Ser vices
100 ,,0
51-8
14.:?
'5-5 10.3 20,4
33. The distribution of the economically active population by
main sector ranges from Niger at one extreme (95.0, 1,5 and 13.5 percent in agriculture, industry and services respectively) to
the Republic of South Africa at the other (32,-30 and 38 per cent).
34. Taking the continent 'as a whole, the proportion of the labour force in agriculture is higher in the case of women than in that of men. This applies to all the countries of the western regioii (except Ghana, Upper Volta and Togo), of the eastern region (except Reunion) and to those of Middle Africa (except Angola and Equa torial Guinea) as well as to three countrieo in Southern Africa (Botswana, Lesotho and Swaziland).
35- In.Northern Africa, the low proportion of women working in agriculture is due to underestimation of the number of women working as family workers in agriculture. This distorts the distribution of female labour by sector, i.e. the proportion oi' women employed in industry and services is over-estimated.
36. In services, women are proportionately more numerous than men in all the countries of Northern Africa and in the territories under Spanish or Portuguese administration (except Mozambique), as well as in the following states or territories: Nigeria, Ghana.
Dahomey. Togo, Southern Rhodesia, Reunion, Mauritius, Congo (Braz zaville), Republic of South Africa and Namibia.
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37. For the majority of the regions and for the continent as a whole, the proportion of women employed in industry is fairly low
(with the noteworthy exception of Western Africa). On the other hand it is on the high side for the other two sectors in most regions (Table 5).
Table 5 - Proportion of women in the Total Labour Force by Economic Sector and by Region
Economic Sector
All Sectors Agriculture Industry Services
Africa
32.0 34.1 15.0 30.8
Western
40.2 40.4 26.0 47.0
Eastern
35.3 37.4 16.5 24.4
Region Middle
39.6 45.1 5.0 15.2
Northern
7.2 5.5 8.8 11.6
Southern
26.3 24.1 6.7
-.44.2
II POSSIBLE EVOLUTION OF TOTAL POPULATION AND ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE . POPULATION OF AFRICA BETWEEN I960 AND 19B0
Total Population1
38. The projections of the total population given here have, as was stated at the outset, been made by the responsible.divi sion of the United Nations.!/ The variant employed is the average based on a fairly marked fall in mortality rates at all ages,
combined with a-rise in gross reproduction rates in Middle Africa, stability of these rates in Eastern and Southern Africa, a moderate fall in i/estern Africa and a sharp fall in Northern Africa. These projections do not' take account-of migratory movements.
39. On this basis the United Nations has estimated the population of Africa-to be 344,484,000 in 1970 arid to rise to 456,721,000 in 1980' (see Table III .in the appendix). Between I960 and 1980, it is estimated that there will be an increase of;187 million -a figure not much lower than the total population of Africa in 1950.
1/ For further details of the projection methods, see
United Nations, Population Division: Population Prospects 1965- 35 as assessed in 1968 (Working Paper No. 30, December iyby;
The annual.rate of increase, estimated at 2.18 per cent for the decade 1950-1960, should rise during the next 20 years to 2.48 per cent between I960 and 1970 and to 2.86 per cent between 1970 and 1980.i/ This phenomenon, which is characteristic of virtually all the African countries, would appear to be mainly due to the general decline in mortality. The rates of increase of the five regions are estimated to range from 2 to 2.9 per cent between I960 and. 1970 and from 2.5 to 3.3 per cent betwen 1970 and 1980.
'i'he gaps between individual countries and territories are even wider. .
40. The slight predominance of women probably will extend to two new regions (Western and Southern Africa) and to four new countries (Uganda, Nigeria, Angola and Namibia). Some countries
have in the past suffered from a marked imbalance between the sexes caused by migratory movements. The migration factor, how ever, has not b;?en taken into account in these projections, which would explain to some extent the lessening of the imbalance shown
in the figures for these countries between I960 and 1980.
41. " The evolution in the age structure of the population of the African continent, regions and countries does not point to any major changes, although with only 0 few exceptions it is expected that the population will become slightly younger. It should not have any major effect on total, manpower supply, and crude activity rates.
Economically Active Population
42. As stated at the outset, the ILO is estimating the evolution of the active population,, and activity rates by sex
and age group has taken into account the United Nations population projections. The method of projecting activity rates by sex and age group devised by the Office is based mainly on the close relationship between the level and trend of these rates on the one. hand and the degree and trend of economic development on the other. The sixth part of the study that the ILO is about to publish on labour force projections will in fact describe this
method. 2J
43. The percentage of the total male labour force in agri culture has been used as a measure of the degree of economic development, and thus the difference between the percentages of agricultural male labour force in 1950 and I960 measures the progress of economic development. In addition, the trend of 1/ v/ith an annual rate of increase of 2.2 per cent, the population would double in 32 years; with & rate of 2.9 per cent, this result would be .-"chieved after only 24 years.
2/ IL0:Labour Force Projections, op.cit.
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activity rates by sex and age ho.s been estimated on the basis of
an index (base 1950) of the variation of these rates between 1950
and I960.
44. It should be explained that the ILO estinates for 1950 and I960 were derived from series for 143 countries.aid territories throughout the-world for which data are available on activity rates by sex and age and on the distribution of labour force by sex and economic sector.- Usin^ these basic data, a series of very detailed comparative analyses was made with the help of the computer (calculation of various ratios, standard deviations,
moving averagesj'etcv). . , .
45- For the purpose of projections, these data were used to ■ establish.an average scale of variations in.activity rates by sex and age group that took into account the average change that normally occurs in the economically active population of a country as it develops. The model used in this case wa.s an eleven-term moving average-of the 143 series utilized which have been clas sified in decreasing order of the proportion ox the total male labour force .in. agriculture in I960.
46. In the case.of women, it was necessary i-n order to allow
for the social and cultural factor to work out two models according to whether their participation in economic activity was slight or considerable. ■
Projection of Male Activity Rates
47. The projection models established pre-suppose a general decline of male activity rates in all age groups during the two decades 1960-1970 and 1970-1980, This^decline should be slight between.the ages of 25 and 44,. becoming progressively greater for younger and older males. In general the higher the country's degree of economic -developmentj the sharper the decline.
48. The relatively marked ::all anticipated in the case of young and old males snould reflect a roughly corresponding increase in school attendance and in the proportion of older workers receiving retirement pensions.
Projection of Female Activity Rates
49. The first model was used .for all the countries of Northern Africa together .with- Niger, Mauritania, Namibia and the territo ries under-Spanish or Portuguese administration. It assumes that in the less developed countries and -'csrritories in this group ■ ■ there will be" a general rise in activity rates at all ages, and in the more advanced' countries a.n increase between the ages of 20 and 44 (or 54), but a fall before and after these two ag^s.
50. The second model has been used for all the other African countries with the exception of the Republic of SouthAfrica.
It pre-supposes a continued decline in activity rates at all ages as development progresses. This type of evolution reflects the fall in the proportion-of women employed in agriculture, the growth of urbanisation and expansion of non-agricultural acti
vities.. : ■ ■
Some Results of the Projections
51. The ILO projections show a total economically active'popu- lation of 132 million in 1970 and 165 million in 1980. This
assumes an increase of some 24 million (22 per cent) between I960 and 1970 and 33 million (25 per cent) between 1970 and 1980.
Estimates by country are given in Table.IV of the Appendix.
52. For Africa as a whole, the projections show that crude ■ activity rates will fall from 4-0.4 per cent in I960 to 38.5 per cent in 1970 and 36.2 per cent in 1980, i.e. more than a tenth in twenty years. In other words, the active population will, increase more slowly than the total population.
53. The fall in crude activity rates appears to be due firstly, to chanes in activity rates by sex and age and secondly, to.
changes ^in: the age structure of the population. . Using the appro priate statistical technique (standardisation of the population), It is possible to separate the effect of various factors on the
increase in the. labour force between I960 and 1980. .The results are given in Table. 6.
Table 6 - Influence of demographic factors and Economic, Social and Cultural Factors on growth.of economically active population,
1960-1980 (Million Persons)
Factors of change Changes due to:
demographic
factors (net) - Total
population - Age
structure ESCO factors ,
(net)l/
Increase I960 -1980 (net)
Africa
72.1
75.5
-3.4 -15.5 56.6
Region Western
23.2
24.2
-1.0 -5.4 17.8
Eastern
21.7 22.9
-1.2 -3.3 18.4
Middle
6.8
7.3
-0,5 -1.8 5.0
Northern
14.5 15.6
-1.1 -2.4 12.1
Southern
3.9 4.2
-0.3 -0.6 3.3
Residue^-'
2.0
1.3
0.7 -2.0
1/ Regional interaction of demographic and "ESCO" factors.
2/ Economic, social, cultural and other non-demographic factors.
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Page 18
54. If activity rates by sex and age group on the one hand and the population structure by sex and age on the other were the same in 1980 as in I960, the active population in 1980 would be an
estimated 19,000,000 greater, of which 16,000,000 would be accounted for by the continuance of activity rates at I960 levels and 3,000,000 by the maintenance of the same age structure of the population.. In other words, if the economic, social and cultural situation of the African countries and territories were to remain the same as in I960, the African labour force would expand between I960 and 1980 by 72,000,000, instead of the 57,000,000 suggested by the -ILO's".
projections.
55. Similarly, the active male population of Africa is expected to rise over these two decades at a lower rate than that of the total male population. Between I960 and 1970, the estimated
annual rates are 2.05 and 2.31 per cent, and for the period 1970- 1980, 2.48 and 2.86 per cent. Mauritius is the only country or territory to show the opposite trend. Elsewhere the correspond ing rates as estimated are within the ranges 0.6 to 2.7 per year during the decade 1960-1970, and 1.2 to 3.0 in the subsequent
decade. /
56. The gap between the rates of increase of the economically active population and of the total population would seem likely to be even wider in the case of women, the corresponding rates being 1.85 and 2.48 per cent per year between I960 and 1970, and 2.10 and 2.86 between 1970 and 1980. Nevertheless, some countries - especially Niger, Mauritania, Mozambique, Sudan and Reunion - may have a higher rate of growth of their economically active populations between 1970 and 1980.
57. , ?he results of these, projections are of course governed by the initial hypotheses. Especially in the., case of activity rates by sex and by age, future changes will depend considerably on the progress - economic, social and cultural - that has been or is made by these countries or territories during the decades I960 to 1970 and 1970 to 1980, having regard to their general level of development.
...contd.
■ ■ ' APPENDIX ■
Statistics of Population and Sconomically Active Population 58. Thefigures for each country given in the four-following tables have been derived or calculated from the: statistics ,pub lished by the 110 in: Labour Force Projections, Part II, Africa,
tables 2, 3 and 5. ' .
59. The regional totals also cover countries or territories ■ which are not mentioned separately, viz. the. Cape Verde :Islands and St. Helena and dependencies in V/estern- Africa; the Comoro and Seychelles Islands, the French Territory of the Afars and the Issas, and the British Indian Ocean Territory in Eastern Africa; Sao Tome and Prince Island in Middle Africa; Spanish North Africa, Ifni and Spanish Sahara in Northern Africa; and the French Southern and Antarctic territories in Southern Africa 60. The figures have been rounded off for each age group, sex and country, so that the sum of the components may sometimes differ from the corresponding totals given in the tables. :
E/CN.14/P0P/42 Pa^e20 TableI-Populationini960 Regionandcountry AFRICA Western Nigeria Ghana UpperVo.lta Mali IvoryCoast Senegal Guinea Niger SierraLeone Dahomey Togo Liberia Mauritania PortugueseGuinea Gambia Eastern Ethiopia Tanzania Kenya Uganda Mozambique• Madagascar SouthernRhodesia Malawi Zambia
Total (thousands) 269,577 79,530 42,947 6,777 4,400 4,089 3,433 3,110 3;183 2,913 2,136 2,113 1,465 995 950 506 301 77,089 20,700 10,328 8,115 6,684 6,392 5,370 3,640 r3>447 3,219
DistributionbyAge-Group(^) 0-14 years 43.2 44.2 43.3 47.1
15-64 years 53.9 53.4 53.0 51.2 54.8 53-7 55-3 54.7 55 51 54.4 53.1 52.7 57.7 55=1 6O.2 56.8 13-8 :57 52.8 50.8 54 57 52 52 52 50.5
65years andover "2.4 2.2 1.9 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.9 2,9 2.3 3.2 2.6 2.7 4.1 3.2 4.0 3.3 2.9 3.2 2.8 2-5 3.2 3.5 2.6 2,2 2.4 2.4
Annual Rateof Growth 1950-60 ( 2.18 2.16 2.26 3.04 1.56 1-78 1.98 1.81 1.71 2,43 1.85 2.01 2,01 1.26 1.78 0.63 1.63 2.12
Percentage ofFemales 49 49 50 50 49 50.4 50.2 50.5 50.4 50.8 51.5 50.5 50,4 50.0 49=2 50-7
TableI(contd.)
E/CN.I4/POP/42 Page Rwanda Burundi Somalia Mauritius Reunion Middle '_Congo(Rep.dem.of) Angola .Cameroon Chad CentralAfricanRepublic .Congo(Brazzaville) Gabon .EquatorialGuinea Northern :'.UAH.(Egypt) Sudan Morocco Algeria Tunisia Libya Southern SouthAfrica(Rep.of). Lesotho Namibia Botswana Swaziland
2,740 2,908 2,226 662 338 29,402 14,139 4,723 4,786 2,975 1,252 764 452 251 65,392 25,832 11,770 11,640 10,800 3,778 1,349 18,164 15,925 885 528 506 320
45-1 .42.5 '43.8 44.1 44.4 41.7 41-7 42.6 40.2 44.7 41.9 41.6 33.6 32.7 43.4 42.2 44.3 44.8 43.8 44-2 43.3 39-8 39-7 38.3 38.6 41.7 46.9
52.4 54.6 53-5 52.9 52.3 53.2 55.2 54.8 56.1 52.6 55-0 54.9 60.9 63.3 53.5 54.7 53.0 .52.6 52.3 52.2 52-7 56.2 ■56.2 57.3 ■58.4 55.5 50.3
2.5 2-9 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.1 3.1 2.6
. 3.7 ■2.7 '3.1■ ■
3-5 5.5 4.0 3.1 3-1 2.7 2.6 3.9 3.6 4.0 4.0 4-V 4.4 3.0 2.8 2.8
-2.27 1.79 2.00 3.29 3.31 1.70* 1.76 1.75 1.56
' 1.9T 1.57- 1.68 0.41 1.01 2.44 2.36 2.64 2.66 2.12 2.54 2.74 2.38 2.49 1.45 1.48 1.86 2.38
E/CN.U/POP/42 22 TableII-EconomicallyActivePopulationin19-60. Distributionby -GroupCrudeActivityRate Total (thousands)Percentage ofFemalesRegion&country 65years andover
39..3 38.0 47.3 48.0
Nigeria Ghana UpperVolta Hali IvoryCoast Senegal Guinea Niger SierraLeone Dahomey Togo Liberia Mauritania. PortugueseGuinea Gambia 87.6 87.3 87.8 87.3 92,0 ,86.1 89-9 86.7 ■88.8
Ethiopia Tanzania Kenya Uganda Mozambique Madagascar SouthernRhodesia Malawi Zambia
39.0 46.5 39-8 ..contd.
E/CN.14/rO?/42 P TableII(oontd.) Rwanda Burundi Somalia Mauritius Reunion Middle Congo(Dem.rep Angola Cameroon Chad CentralAfricanRep. Cont?o(Brazzaville) Gabon EquatorialGuinea Northern
of) UAR(Egypt) Sudan Morocco Algeria Tunisia Libya Southern SouthAfrica(Rep.of) Lesotho Namibia Botswana Swaziland
1,547 1,533 925 200
92 13,085 18,882 7;379 3,888 3,278 2,881 1,026 370 6,822 5,692 500 208 268 153
1A
86 88 87 96 91 89 89 92 88 ■85 87 93 89 91 .22_ 91 86 90. 91. 90. 88. 95. 87. 89. 88. 87.
.6 .0 •7 -9 .3 •A ,6 .7 -5 .4 .8 .1 .4 .8 J_ 4 3 6 4 8 9 1 2 9 2 1 4
3-2 3.4 3.4
44-5 37-5 28.9 37.6 3.1 6>3 3.4 4.3 4.7
35-7 56-5 39-5 53.0 47.8
58.6 .58.5 53.7 49.5' 44.-4 56.0. 55.2 54.5 59.0. 56.3 59.6 48.5 610A 68.0 53-5 53.1 59.1 52.1 51.3 49-7 51,0 55.0 62.4 61.3 57.3 51.0 ————
54 47 24 10 10 33 41 4 42 17 56 27 41 2 3_ 3 6 4- 1. 3. 2. 16. 50. 17. 49. 44.
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E/CN.H/POP/42 25 TableIII(contd.) Rwanda Burundi Somalia Mauritius Reunion Middle Congo(j)emeRep.of] Angola Cameroon Chad CentralAfri.Rep.
3,587' 3,600 2,789 862 464 35,892. 17,424 5,693 5,786 .3,706 1,522 Congo'(Brazzaville)935 Gabon EquatorialGuinea Northern UAH(Egypt) Sudan Morocco Algeria Tunisia Libya Southern
431 285
66,606 33,872 15,779 15,722 14,012' 5,075 1,381 22,332 SouthAfrica(Rep.of)20,112 Lesotho Namibia Botswana Swaziland
1,043 633 622 420
51.6 54.1 51.5 54.5 52.2 55.1 54-9 55.5 55.9 53.1 _54-8 54.9 61,1 61,1 52.3 54.1 52.2 5M 49.8 51^2 52.4 54.7 .56.1 57.1 56.9 55.0 50.5
2.73' 2.16 2-28 2.68 3.22 2.01' 2.11 1.89 1.92 2.22 1.97 2.04 0.62 1.28 :.85 2..75 2-97 3.05 2.64 3.00 3.38 2.31 2.36 1.66 1-83 2.09 2.76
50.6 50.7 50.6 49.8 51.1 51.3 51*-4 49.7 51.4 52o3 51.8 51.8 53=0 47.0 49.6 49.6 49.5 49.9 49-8 49-1 48.5 50,0 49^9 51,6 49.8 51-3 51.9
4,869 4,634 3,653 1,107 '634 45,78^ 22,-O9 7,138 7,343 4,785 1,948 1,201 535 335 119,385 45,431 21,946 22,202 19,369 7,041 2,602 29,386 25,952 1,283 785 792 574
50.1 52.7 54-0 57.8 52.2 53.6 53-.4 53-6 54.0 53.1 53.2 53-4 .6O.4 59.4 £1.6 53.4 51.0 50.3 49*9 51.3 51*5 54*3 54-3 "55>9 -54.5 54.2 49-8
3.10 '2.56 2.74 2.53 3.17 2.46 2.56 2.29 2.41 2.59 ■2.50 2.54 1.07 1.63 3.26 2,98 3.35 3.51 3.55 3.33 3.30 2.56 2.58 2,09 2.18 2.45 3.17
■49*5 AC-'
4/POP.42 6TableIV-EconomieallyActivePopulationin1970andI98O Region&.country AFR"CA Wee-tern Nigeria Ghana UcperVolta Mali IvoryCoast Senegal Guinea Niger SierraLeone Dahomey Togo Liberia Mauritania' PortugueseGuinea Gambia Eastern Ethiopia Tanzania Kenya Uganda Mozambique Madagascar SouthernRhodesia Malawi Zambia
Total-. (thousands) 132,479 .43,450 22,534 3,492 2,997 2;848 2,302 1,739 1,870 1,217 1,054 1,318 800 478 366 178 190 41,975 11,307 5,841 4,354 3,796 2,248 3,583 1,830 .2,014 1,649
15 Crude Activity Rates. 38,5 42.9 40,9 38.7 55.7 -56,0 53.4 44.3 47.7 31.6 39-9 49.1 43.0 40,8" 31'3 32.0 52.2 42.9 45.1 44-1 39.9 ■44*2 29.2 51-7 36.2 45.3 38.4
?70 Annual Rateof Growth 1-99 1-9.6. I.98 2,43 1.68 1,88 1.92 1.83 1.70 2.65 1.60 1.99 2.04 1,02 1.91 0.58- 1=48 2.06 1-59 2.24 2/69 2.23 1.54 2.20 2.58 2..31 2.56
Percentage offemales 31.1 38.9- 38,8 37.7 46".7-
47.4 43-8 "^9.1 40.3 9.8 35-0 44-9 38*6 '32,4 4.1 3.9 44-.2 35.1 35.1 36.7
. 34.3 33.7 9-1 45.7 27.8 37.6 32.8
-Total. (thousands) 165,379 53,6.13 27,6u7 4,695 3,600 3,517 2,813 2,097 .2,260 1,620 1,258 1,638 1,005 546 452 200 219 52,688 13,575 7,391 5,783 4,788 2,692 4,565 2,379 .2*554... 2,153
Crude Activity Rates
Ji) ■ 1
36.2 40.,2 37,9 37-3 53,2 53.4 50,4 41.3 45-1 30,8 37.1 46,2■ 40.9' 37.8 30.0- 30.9 48.1 40.9 43-1 42.3 38.3 42.2 27-7 49.2 33.1' ...4.3.,9... 36.4980 Annual Rateof Growth
SiL. .
2-24 2,12 2,05 3.00 1,8? 2.13 2,02 1.89 1.91 2.90. 1.78 2.20 2.31" 1.34 2.13 1.17 1.43 2.30 1.84 2.38 2.88 2.35 1.82 2.45 2.66 _.2..4O 2.70Percentage- offemales 30,7■ 38.7..
38.8 38,0 46.1 46.7 44.1 38.1 40.0 10.6 34-0 44-4 37.7 31.7 4.4 4.0 43-8 34.8 34.7 36.4 33.7 33.6 9.4 45.1 28.5 37-0... 31.6 contd.
