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Uncertainty component estimates in transient climate projections.

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Fig. 1 Three synthetic multimodel multimember ensembles of time series pro- pro-jections (MMEs) obtained via simulation with different F η ratios and M numbers (left: F η = 0.1, M = 3; middle F η = 0.5, M = 3; right: F η = 0.5, M = 9)
Fig. 2 Precision of QEANOVA (left) and STANOVA (middle) estimates for un- un-certainty variance components, and gain in precision between STANOVA SD values and QEANOVA SD values (right)(gain = ratio between STANOVA SD values and QEANOVA SD values)
Fig. 3 Precision of QEANOVA (left) and STANOVA (middle) estimates for mean change response estimates (µ)
Fig. 4 Precision of uncertainty estimates obtained with the local QEANOVA ap- ap-proach
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