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A warning trigger: a study of the integration of Weak
Signal Theory and the anticipation framework into
China’s policy to ban plastic waste import
Xuexia Li
To cite this version:
Xuexia Li. A warning trigger: a study of the integration of Weak Signal Theory and the anticipation framework into China’s policy to ban plastic waste import. Business administration. 2020. �dumas-03152204�
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A arning trigger: A st d of the integration of Weak
Signal Theor and the Anticipation Frame ork into China s
polic to ban plastic aste import
X e ia LI
2020
CONTENTS
A a a a ...5
CHAPTER 1...9
1.1 INTRODUCTION...9
1.2RESEARCH CONTEXT: CHINA S IMPORT OF PLASTIC WASTE...10
1.3 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES...15
1.4 RESEARCH QUESTIONS...15
1.5 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE RESEARCH...16
1.6LIMIATTION OF STUDY...17
CHAPTER 2... 18
LITERATURE REVIEW... 18
2.1 WEAK SIGNALS THEORY...18
2.2COMMON CHARACTERISTICS OF WEAK SIGNAL... 20
2.3 THE ANTICIPATION THEORY...23
2.4 WEAK SIGNALS FOR ANTICIPATION... 23
2.5 THE ANTICIPATION FRAMEWORK... 24
CHAPTER 3... 26
METHODOLOGY... 26
3.1 SECONDARY DATA RESEARCH...26
3.2DEFINING SECONDARY DATA ANALYSIS...26
3.3USEFULNESS OF SECONDARY DATA ANALYSIS... 27
3.4 SOURCE OF THE DATA...28
3.5SHORTFALLS OF SECONDARY DATA ANALYSIS...30
3.6PROCESS OF SECONDARY ANALYSIS...30
CHAPTER 4... 32
FINDINGS AND RESULTS...32
4.1CASE STUDY OF CHINA NATIONAL SWORD POLICY TO BAN PLASTIC WASTE IMPORT 32 4.2IDENTIFICATION AND ANALYSIS THROUGH ANTICIPATION FRAMEOWRK...33
4.2.1WEAK SIGNAL BEFORE THE BAN POLICY...34 a) G e hic Ph g a h OF Beiji g Wa e A ea (Oc be 2008 B Ji lia g Wa g ) (Sig al:
Me be f he blic la ake )... 34 4.2.2ANTICIPATION OF BAN POLICY ON WASTE PLASTIC IMPORT... 46 4.2.3 GROUP 1: CHINA... 46 4.2.4GROUP 2: OTHER DEVELOPING COUNTRIES IMPORT OF PLASTIC WASTE 48 4.2.5GROUP 3: DEVELOPED COUNTRIES THAT EXPORT WASTE PLASTIC...50 Fig e 4.17 The i i f de el ed c ie (G 3) ega di g he A ici a i F a e k51 CHAPTER 5... 52 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS...52 5.1FROM WEAK SIGNS TO STRONG AND DANGEROUS SIGNAL- THE CHINESE EXPERIENCE (GROUP 1) 52
5.2ADAPTING TO STRONG SIGNAL - THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES EXPERIENCES (GROUP 2) 53
5.3ADAPTING TO STRONG SIGNAL - THE DEVELOPED COUNTRIES EXPERIENCES (GROUP 3) 54
5.4DISCUSSION & RECOMMENDATIONS...54 APPENDIX...66 APPENDIX 1...66
CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
1.1 INTRODUCTION
T da , i i i a d c a i a e i a ed i a fa -g i g e i e i h c a cha ge . Ma die ha e h ha kee i h he cha gi g ld, c a i eed be e i a i e. Ma f he e ga i a i ha e ed
e i a i b i i g a d c e gi g k ledge e ai c e i i e. O ga i a i ha ca ickl ide if cha ge a d e e eak ig al i hei e i e a d eac he ill gai a deci i e c e i i e edge. The e eak
ig al a fi i d ced b A ff (1975) h clai ed ha f l g- a ge la i g a egic- la i g, a d ca eg i ed i f a i , ga i a i h ld e a i e g ig al a d eak ig al . Weak ig al ca bec e clea e igh di a ea e i e. A a deci i - l, eak ig al a e ed ca he e i e a d ake e e e i i e e e gi g cha ge . U
i e e a i , he ig al bec e cha ac e i ed a eak, b a a ea l a i g ig al. Acc di g Hil e (2010), eak ig al ca hel b eak e aili g
e al del a d e c age ga i a i hi k diffe e l . Thi i , e able he be e i a i e ab he f e (A ff, Ki le , Le i , Hel -S e e & A ff, 2018). Weak ig al a al i , a a ecific f e igh e h d l g , ca c ib e he e e ge ce f a lea i g ada i e lic - aki g b h i i a e
ga i a i a d blic ad i i a i (Me calfe, 2003).
De ec i f eak ig al e i e b h e i i i a d e e i e. C ff a (1997) i i ed ha i g eak ig al ca i dica e e de el e a h i he f e. H e e , i i i a e e be ha a ici a i ha he e ial f ca i g f e ible e e a d cha ge . Gi e he i a ce f cha gi g ci c a ce , he c ce f eak ig al i ig ifica f he de el e f
a egie ef (Ma he , 2016).
I eak ig al e ea ch, he e ha i he ef e e l e a d i a i g i e hich i a i e f e i g he i e . Weak ig al e ea ch i e ed ce
l e abili h gh lea i g b c i g i h h he ical cha ge a d b i d ci g ga i a i al ac ice ada he e i e e f adicall cha gi g
e i e al i ie a d h ea . I d i g , he hel c e ail a egic l ck-i ble b e i g c e i al a i ab he e l i f
he e i e a d gge i g e i f a eg (Me d a, Ca d , & Ca a a, 2008). Ba ed he A ici a i F a e k (Le ca, 2011), he
ga i a i f e ee e ial h ea a d i k i he e a i al e i e , i ill edic he f e hile cla if i g f e ac i . Thi he eb c ib e he c c i f b b i e del .
I hi d , he e ea che e a i ed he ba f i ed la ic a e de Chi a Na i al S d P lic a a ca e d de a e he e g h f i c a i g
eak ig al a d he a ici a i l e he ec ic a d e i e al ble . H e e , d e a lack f i f a i , hi i e ha bee e icall a al ed bef e ( a Be ke i g, 2001). A ch, hi e ea ch i i el a d ac ical
de a d he de el e f he g e e Na i al S d P lic f a he e ical e ec i e.
1.2 RESEARCH CONTEXT: CHINA S IMPORT OF PLASTIC WASTE I ece ea , he la ic a d ela ed d c la ig ifica le i i la i g
he gl bal ec (B k , Wa g, & Ja beck, 2018). Gl ball , la ic i idel ed a d i add he c f a d c e ie ce f de life le (Ala , Billah, & Yajie, 2018; Fa aca, Ma i e -Sa che , & A , 2019).
I fac , la ic' abili , fle ibili , d abili (E e, 2017), a d chea e ake i e f he idel ed a - ade a e ial , a d i j a fe decade , la ic
2019). Thi ha bee acc a ied b a i c ea e i lid a e, la ic a e ha bec e a i a c e f lid a e (Ag ad , Se a , Sa Mig el, Ca & Mad id, 2007). Milli f f la ic a e a e aded e e ea a d he
ld a d la a i a le i e laci g la ic a a e ial . While ec cli g i a ell-k l i , l 9% f he ld' la ic a e ha bee ec cled, a d
e ha half f ha i e ed h d ed f c ie a d he ld. (Ge e , Ja beck & La , 2017; B k , Wa g & Ja beck, 2018).
I ece decade , Chi a de a d f la ic ha elled he gl bal ec cli g a e ade. Thi i a i ha all ed Chi a achie e a l -c a fac i g
ad a age, hich la a c cial le i aki g Chi a he ld fac (Wa g, Zha , Li , Che & S he la d, 2020). Acc di g a i ic e ed b B k , Wa g, & Ja beck (2018) a de ic ed i Fig e 1.1 , Chi a ha acce ed ea l half f
he ld i d ial la ic a e i , ab 106 illi f f la ic a e, e he la 25 ea . Chi a ec ha a l be efi ed f he gl bal ec cli g ade (Q , G , Ma, Che , Li , Li , & X , 2019).
Fig e 1.1: S ce f la ic a e i i Chi a i 2016 (ada ed f B k , Wa g, & Ja beck, 2018)
I he gl bal la ic a e ade, he de el ed highe i c e c ie a ib e he highe e le el (B k , Wa g, & Ja beck, 2018). The bigge e e f
c a la ic a e he U i ed S a e , Ja a , Ge a , he U i ed Ki gd , a d E e (G el , 2015). Mea hile, A ia c ie a e he leadi g i e (Wa g, Zha , Li , Che , & S he la d, 2020). X , Che , Jia g, Zha g, Ma, Re & Shi (2020) i hei ece e ea ch l ked i he e l i f gl bal l e h le e a e
ade e , a ed he gl bal ade e k f l e h le e a e i 1976, 1986, 1996, 2006, 2016, a d 2017. The a i g a e e e ed i Fig e 1.2 a h
bel .
Fig e 1.2: Gl bal ade e k f PE a e i 1976, 1986, 1996, 2006, 2016, & 2017 (ada ed f X , Che , Jia g, Zha g, Ma, Re & Shi 2020)
Chi a i he la ge i e f a e la ic i ce 1992 hich acc f 45% f he gl bal a ke (B k , Wa g, & Ja beck, 2018). The gl bal la ic a e ade i c lica ed a d d a ic. I i affec ed b a i ci ec ic fac . Chi a' e i e ha bee da aged b a h ge a f i ed la ic a e. U de
i g e e, i J l 2017, he Chi e e g e e ified he W ld T ade O ga i a i f i la i e ba 24 e f a e ea , i cl di g
la ic i ackagi g a e (W ld T ade O ga i a i , 2017). Beca e f a de i e bec e a le ll ed c (Wa g e al., 2019), i 2017, Chi a a ed he Na i al S d lic (Chi e e Ge e al Ad i i a i f C , 2017), hich
he i f -i d ial la ic a e ha bee e a e l ba ed i ce Ja a 2018. Chi a la ic i ba laced he gl bal la ic a e ade i cha . A Chi a' i eg la i la ic a e igh e , Chi a' la ic i l ged 99 e ce (Ka , 2019). Chi a ill ha a high de a d f la ic a e ial a d all
he i f ce ed la ic a e ial , ch a ec clable a e ial . Thi ha c ea ed a e la ic a e ade e (M i a & Ha a hi, 2018). The la ic a e
ade ha bee la gel di e ed S hea A ia c ie a ill a ed i Table 1.1. The g ad al i c ea e i la ic i f he c ie ha ig aled a
edi ib i f he b de f he gl bal la ic a e ade (Wa g, e al., 2020)
Table 1.1: Pla ic Wa e I T e d i ASEAN c ie
I hi d , e di i g i h 3 g f c ie a de ic ed i Fig e 1.3. The fi ca e d , f c e Chi a Na i al S d P lic . The e ea ch f c e he
eak ig al leadi g he adical a f a i a d i le e a i f he e lic . I he d f ca e 1, he e ea che e he A ici a i f a e k
de a d h eak ig al e l ed i g ig al ha d i e he cha ge. Wi h he ba f he i Chi a, he f c i hif ed he ec d ca eg f de el i g C ie . Pla ic a e i Thaila d, Vie a , a d Mala ia g e
ig ifica l . Acc di g he e f G ee eace Ea A ia (2019) S hea A ia ggle agai he la ic a e ade, Mala ia hl i f la ic
a e cke ed f 20,000 e i 2016 110,000 e i 2018. The ec d g f c ie died i hi e ea ch i cl de I dia, Vie a , Mala ia, Tai a , Thaila d, a d I d e ia. The hi d g c i e de el ed c ie ha a e he
aj c ib f la ic a e. The a e he U i ed S a e , Ja a , Ge a , he U i ed Ki gd , E e, Ca ada, A alia, a d Chile. The e e f he e
a i a e died de he A ici a i f a e k i hi d .
1.3 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES
Thi e ea ch e eak ig al , he A ici a i F a e k, a d hei e i ga i a i a a f ga i a i al f e lea i g. The ai bjec i e f he e ea ch a e a f ll :
S d he e f eak ig al a d he ke c e i he A ici a i f a e k i a al i g diffe e g f c ie chai eac i af e
he Chi a Na i al S d P lic .
U de a d h he i eg a i f eak ig al c ce a d he A ici a i F a e k ca hel ga i a i be e c e i h f e ible cha ge .
1.4 RESEARCH QUESTIONS
Thi d eek e ha ce he de a di g f h eak ig al facili a e he ide ifica i f ble a a ea l age. A d he i eg a ed i h he
A ici a i F a e k, i all ga i a i i i i f la e
a ia e a egie a d licie c e he ble . A ch, f hi e ea ch, he e ea che ill e a i e he l gi di al da a a d e l e e d a d cha ge f
he e a e i e de a d h effec i e a ici a i hel ga i a i be e ada he c e i a i The e ea ch h ai a e he f ll i g
e ea ch e i :
1. Wha a e he e f eak ig al a d he ke c e i he A ici a i F a e k i a al i g he chai eac i f diffe e g
f c ie af e he Chi a Na i al S d P lic ?
2. H ca ga i a i i eg a e eak ig al i he A ici a i
F a e k c e i h f e ible cha ge af e he Chi a Na i al S d P lic ?
1.5 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE RESEARCH
All e ea ch ill i l e he c llec i f da a. U like adi i al e ea ch, hi
e ea ch e ec da da a a he i a il ce f da a. The e ec da da a a e delibe a el c llec ed a d a al ed. M f he e da a a e c ea ed i a e i f al
e e a a ec d f e le' ac i i ie . The e ea che die b h a a d
i e e ed da a d he bjec a e . L ki g a he ele a da a, he e ea ch c e a e e ded e i d, a d a al i g de el e e ha e i d.
The e ea che ed ha he e i a g i g li e a e he elab a i f he eak ig al he a d he a ici a i he . I e e i gl , e i die ch a Bla c a d Le ca (2003), Wal e , Jia g, a d Klei (2003). a d Ch (2001). ha e f d i i e ela i hi be ee eak ig al a d a ici a i i he
ga i a i a egic a age e . H e e , he e i li le e ide ce f cla if i g he e f eak ig al a d i eg a i g eak ig al i h he A ici a i
F a e k. U de a di g he e ea ch ga , he e ea che e a i e f he i g ec da da a ide if eak ig al a d h he ele e f a ici a i i fl e ce
ga i a i i hei deci i aki g a d f a i f a egie be e c e i h he di i i he i d .
Thi d i e e ial a he e a e a acade ic die he a lica i f eak ig al i h he A ici a i F a e k. The e ea che di c e i de ail h he i eg a i f eak ig al a d he A ici a i F a e k e lai a d j if Chi a Na i al S d P lic . Thi ca e d i al i a a i ide e ide ce f he effec i e e f eak ig al a d a ici a i i deci i aki g. I a l , he d ide ec e da i i he a c d c
1.6 LIMIATTION OF STUDY
Thi d ha bee ca ied d i g he C id 19 a de ic. The e ea che i able c d c i -de h i e ie ca e e i ai e. T
e c e hi li i a i , he e ea che ha e l ed he e f e a ic a i g (Ja e , Ra dall & Hadda a , 2016) a a e h d a al e he ec da da a
b ai ed f he d . S e a ic a i g i de el ed i cial cie ce f e e al ea . Fi , i i i e e a lack f e i ical da a he a e i g e i
i g e a ic e ie e h d . Sec d, he e i a eed f a e h d de c ibe he li e a e ac a b ad bjec f i e e Ja e , Ra dall, & Hadda a , 2016). S e a i g f c e ga i i g, de c ibi g, a d ca al gi g e i i g e ide ce, a ed e a ic e ie ha a e a e ecific e i (e.g.
i a , ec da , he e ical, ec ic) ela i g e i f i e e . The i cl ded die ca be ed ide if e ide ce f lic - ele a e i , k ledge ga ( hel di ec f e i a e ea ch) a d k ledge cl e ( b- e f e ide ce ha a be i able f ec da e ea ch, f e a le
CHAPTER 2
LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 WEAK SIGNALS THEORY
The e i e e i e fl c a e cha ge (Le ca, Ca -Fa a , & Falc , 2012), a d e e cha ge e e ill eac a d ge e a e eak ig al (X , Ka e, & D a , 2003). Weak ig al a e a ici a i e (Le ca, 2001) a d b a al i g he , he ca bec e ea l a i g ig al a ici a e ce ai ible e e i he f e (A ff, 1982). A he ig al ge ge e i e, he ec e i d bec e
e a d e li i ed (Le ca, e al., 2012). Effec i e a al i f eak ig al a d c e di g ac i a diffe e age f he A ici a i F a e k ca a id
i iga e i k , i la e he i ac f f e ible e e (Le ca & Le ca, 2011).
The c ce f eak ig al ca be aced back 1975, l e he ble e c e ed i l g- e la i g. I a fi i d ced b A ff a d he
e ea che a he i ee f he eak ig al a al i (A ff, e .al., 2018). N ada eak ig al c ce ha bee idel i e e ed i li e a e e ie . Weak ig al a e al, i c i e , i i g i f a i da a ha a ea a he edge f c g i i h gh a e , habi , e e e , e d , e e ie ce , e ec a i a d c adic h e c ce (Da & Sch e ake , 2004; 2005; 2006; Haeckel, 2004; Ca , Ca -Fa a , & Le ca, 2018). Le ca a d Le ca (2014) e ha i ed a eak ig al a be a i ig ifica iece f da a, b e ged i he
cea f a da a ha ge e a e i e . Thi i he ea h ch ig al i called eak. I i a i a i , a ibili , a c jec e, a h he i , e i e diffic l i ible i e he eliabili f a e cei ed ig al (Le ca, 2011). Mag k (2010) al i ed ha eak ig al a e eliable, ce ai , i i g, i a i al, a d ha d ack. If i cceed i a ac i g a e i , he i ha he a
f i f a i (Le ca & Le ca, 2014). O e i e, e e a d idea ill a e a d d i a e (Mag k, 2010).
Th gh f e e l ked, eak ig al ca be f d i al a a ec f life (R bi , 2012). Pe le ca e cei e eak ig al h gh he fi e e e f eei g, hea i g, elli g, feeli g, a d e e a i g (Hei e & Hil e , 2012). Weak
ig al ca al be e e e ed i a i al f ch a i age , h , ai i g , d a i g , a d ide cli , a d (Hil e , 2010). Le ca (2011) i dica ed ha
ig al ca e i i a i f , i cl di g a i ali , li g i ic -li g i ic, i e e bal, a d e e b d la g age. I addi i e le, e i e al a d a al cha ge ca al e e ig al . Le ca (2011) al
cla ified he e f ig al a d ig i f ca eg ie : Na e, Me be f he blic la ake , S a i ic, a d Refle . The cla ifica i b Le ca (2011) i e e ed Fig e 2.1 a h bel . F hi d , he e ea che ada ed he e cla if ig al a d ig f he a al i i ca e die i Cha e 4.
2.2 COMMON CHARACTERISTICS OF WEAK SIGNAL
Whe i g he li e a e, i i f d ha he a h ' defi i i eak ig al ha e he f ll i g c cha ac e i ic f eak ig al :
a) Weak signal is the first sign of emerging phenomena/events (Hiltunen, 2010). Sa i a a d S i h (2011) a ed ha a eak ig al c ld be a ea l ig f ible cha ge b e e , a d ha he e ea l ig c ld la e bec e i a
i dica f ke f ce f de el e , h ea , b i e a d ech l gical i a i . A ch, he e e e he fi ig f a a adig hif f e e d, d i e ,
di i . Acc di g P a e a a d S k l a (2015), a eak ig al i a cia ed i h high ce ai a d i e-lagged. U de he e ci c a ce ,
i f a i i f e i c le e a d he e i i dica i f he fi al c e e ce f he a e f i e e . H e e , eak ig al all i f e cha ge a d i ca be aj cha ge i da ' cie a d ec . Ba ed he a e f eak
ig al , i ca h be he i dica i f f e de c i e e e , he i e e f e de el e a d ibili ie . Si ila l , Mag k (2016) al ci ed ha eak ig al e e ea l a d ag e ig f ible ig ifica e e a d cha ge ha affec he ajec f f e ce ai e e . Sa i a & S i h (2011) e i ed a
ell ha eak ig al i a h he ical cha ge ha c bi e l gic a d i agi a i a d i he fi ig f ible cha ge.
Mea hile, i h ld al be ed ha a i gle eak ig al d e ide a l f i f a i ab he f e ible cha ge , b he cl e f ele a eak ig al ca c e e i f a i ab f e cha ge a d e e gi g e d (Hil e , 2010; Le ca, 2011). I e i d ha e h ld c llec a a eak ig al a
ible ha a e ela ed each he , a he ha a i gle eak ig al, a d a a e i i e de c .
b) After the appearance of the weak signals, the ma fade awa or become stronger with time. The weak signals after becoming stronger can be developed into warning signals.
A ff (1982) defi ed eak ig al a i e al a d e e al a i g ig al ha a e ei he i c le e a d i fficie acc a el e i a e he babili f
cc e ce a d i i ac f e e e . (Hei e , Ka jalai e , R alai e , & S ei lle , 2017). Hil e (2006) ide ified eak ig al a i a a i g
ig a he a e a f f i f a i ed deal i h ible cha ge i he e de i e iga i . S ch i f a i igh lead he de el e f k a d ce ai di ec i f de i ed cha ge .
I li e i h hi i , Le ca (2011) gge ed ha eak ig al a d ea l a i g ig c ld be ec , i c le e i f a i ab e iall ig ifica
cha ge e e i he f e. A d he e a i g ig al igh a ea e ea l i he ibili ajec . A he a ea eak a he i i ial age, e le e cei e he e ig ha e a ce ai ibili ie i he f e. Wi h he de el e f i e, he a i g ig al bec e clea e a d ge , a d e l i clea e ibili
f c i g e e a d cha ge (Le ca, 2011). I he a e ec , R bi
(2012) al defi ed eak ig al a e e iall a a big b e a i , a a i g f ible f e cha ge , e e .
c) In the earl stages of detecting weak signals, the are often ambiguous, need anal sis to make sense. After interpreting, it can become earl warning signals. The ea f eak ig al f a i , he ibili ha he a be ea l ig
f ce ai e e , a d he effec ha he a ha e a e al ce ai a d a big (Daf & H be , 1986; Ma ch & Ol e , 1976). Beca e hei ea i g a e f e a big ei he e lici e e i lici . I i ece a gi e he ea i g b i e e a i (Le ca, 2011). A d he ke fea e i ha eak ig al ha e
a i g ca be f d i a b c e da a i e i dica i g ha a e iall ig ifica e e ha cc ed he he a i ie h ea (Le ca & Le ca, 2011). S ch ide ifica i ca i e ible ble a d he e a ha a
e g he eake e i e (S i h & D b i , 2010; Hei e & Hil e , 2012). I a l , Hil e (2010) highligh ed ha he al e f a eak ig al c ld be de e i ed a he e , l i h he be efi f hi d igh . I he d , eak
ig al i he a ac a hi a i g f f e e e a d e d . H e e , e eak ig al ca be a al ed a d a g ad all eake e e c le el
di a ea i he f e. Thi i , a lead he l i g f hei al e. S e eak a i g ig al af e i e e a i a e able fi d ible e d a d a id i k i i e (Le ca & Le ca, 2011).
Le ca a d Le ca (2011) elled he idea ha eak ig al a e ef l l deci i aki g. Whe a lied i ac i , eak ig al c ld hel
ga i a i a id be i fl e ced b ei e i ie f ig ifica cha ge ha igh cc i he f e. I c a , he ab e ce f eak ig al ca ha e ca a hic effec acc di g R bi (2012). The c f ig i g eak ig al ca al ake e le ha . He ce, he eak ig al a e iced, i i e e el i a a al e a d i e e he c ec l (R bi , 2012).
O ga i a i ha al e eak ig al ill ac i el de ec a d a al e he . Thi eflec he igila a d e i e e he cha ge i he e i e . Ha i g
ge e e i a ce, he e ga i a i ill be likel eac a d a id ible accide . A he ill be he fi ice e i a e d ig f h ea
i , he gai e i i ead f di a e . A ch, he e d bec e a ke i ee g ide (Taba abaei, 2011; R bi , 2012).
2.3 THE ANTICIPATION THEORY Acc di g Ha b ick (1981), Ch (2001), a d Le ca a d Le ca (2011), a ici a i i he ce ha c i e f he f ll i g a ec : bei g e i i e e he e a a i g a d i agi i g a e ie f ible c e e ce a d i fl e ce f e l e e ged e e e d igh
i fl e ci g de el e ajec b aki g ac i ili e a id he e ible c e e ce
A i a a ec f a egic a age e i ha a age ha e he abili ie a ici a e e ial i ie a d h ea i he e i e . Thi l i a el de e i e he c e i i e e a d ai able de el e f he ga i a i (X , e al., 2003). The a ici a i ce he ef e elie hea il i e e a i , i i i a d a e i , a age a e e i ed be e i i e eak ig al ha ca gi e a gli e f f e d a a ic cha ge e e , a d be able edic i de ail
he e ial i ac , i a ce a d ge c f ible cha ge h gh eak ig al (Bla c & Le ca, 2003). T ed ce ce ai i deci i aki g (Wal e , e al. 2003), adj a egic bjec i e a d a egie (Ch , 2001).
If he e ial fail e fac ca be ide ified a he begi i g f he de el e , i ca hel akeh lde edic he i k a d a id i i i e i c ea e he babili
f cce (Le ca & Ca -Fa a , 2008).
2.4 WEAK SIGNALS FOR ANTICIPATION
A i gle eak ig al i f e e l ked a a di c e e ele e f i f a i a d i c ide ed i a , b he a cl e f a cia ed eak ig al i a al ed ge he , eak ig al ca be i e e ed a he fi ig he ea l a i g ig f a cha ge
e e ha i likel c e. Thi fi i he ce f a ici a i : a ici a i i l e ga he i g a d i e e i g a ce ai a f i f a i , a al i g i gai i igh i
f e e e (Nic le c , 2018), he eak ig al i elf i i he e l a ici a i e(Le ca, 2001).
I de a id he ible i ac f f e cha ge e e a d be e c e i h he , c llec i g a d a al i g eak ig al bec e he i a (Hil e , 2010). Acc di g Le ca a d Le ca (2014), eak ig al i he c e f a ici a i a d a a deci i - l, i ca lead a ici a ed deci i (Le ca & Le ca, 2013). 2.5 THE ANTICIPATION FRAMEWORK
Beca e a ici a i i a i a e de f hi ki g, i f a i a be a lified, ig ed i i e e ed i he ce f a ici a i , aki g i e diffic l f
he ga i a i e ec e he a ici a i ce . The lack f a ici a i e ca aci ca be filled i h a ia e i g e h d a d l (Bla c & Le ca, 2003). I hi d , he e ea che ill e he A ici a i F a e k b il b (Le ca, 2011). Ba ed he li e a e e ie , he e ea che ha de el ed a he e ical
del a h i Fig e 1.
A al i g a d a ici a i g h gh he A ici a i F a e k, ca hel
ga i a i gai a clea i al i igh i i i i a d i a i i he e all e i e , c llec a d i e e he ig al ha a be da ge g d i he e i e , a d ake ac i a he igh i e ake c ec deci i ha c ld be eficial he ga i a i (Le ca & Le ca, 2011).
B c llec i g a d a al i g he eak ig al ig al i he c e e i e , he ga i a i ca fi de e i e he e i i laced i he A ici a i F a e k. Stage 1: Bef e he e e . Af e kee l de ec i g a d a al i g he eak ig al , he
ga i a i edic ed he ible e e i he f e l . A hi age, hi g ha ha e ed e , a d he e a e a ibili ie i he f e. The
a ici a i e e e a a cc . A hi i , he ga i a i ha e gh i e ake " e-ac i ke, a id, be e ee he e e .
Stage 2: A hi i , he e e ha e cc ed b he i ac f h e e e ha e cc ed e , he ga i a i i i he Rec e i d , hich ha i ed he
i a ici a e he e e e , b i ca ill a ici a e he i ac af e e e . If c di i e i , he ga i a i ca ake "ac i bef e he fac " eake ,
e g he , a id he ible c i g i ac .
C a ed i h age 1, he ga i a i ca c llec e eak ig al a i g ig al ha g ad all bec e clea . H e e , he ge he ig al i , he le a ici a i a al i ca be d e, he h e he ec e i d (Le ca, N., e al. 2012) a d he h e he i e f he ga i a i ake ac i deal i h ible i ac ill be.
I he third stage, he he e e a d i i ac ha e al ead cc ed, he ga i a i ha c le el i ed he i e a ici a e a d ake ac i b ffe . I hi age, he ga i a i all ac a a e e ge c e e, i g e ai he i ac acce he fac .
CHAPTER 3
METHODOLOGY
3.1 SECONDARY DATA RESEARCH
I hi d , he e ea che ed ec da da a e ea ch e h d gai acce
da a c llec ed b he e ea che , g e e age cie , a d he i e ce b aki g c ec i i h i di id al acce i g da a f blic ce e gaged i i a e ea ch. The e f ec da da a i a al able a ach fi d he
i able da a f he e ea ch. The e a e a i ea h he e ea che f ec da da a a al i a a da a c llec i ech i e. O e f he fac f hi e ea ch ech i e i f c ce al a d b a i e ea . Sec da da a i he
l a ailable da a f he d f eak ig al he i ba f la ic a e i Chi a. I ie f he cial a d li ical e ic i , acce i g ec da da a i
ch ea ie ha el i g i a da a (Nach ia & Nach ia , 1992).
Ec icall , c llec i a e ea ch da a c llec i i c l , a d f di g i ea ge . F he e, ec da da a a al i ide he i f l gi di al a al i hich i a e i cial cie ce d e i e a d c i l ed, (B a , 2004). A ch, he e ea che f a chea e a d le i e- c i g
e h d, (Sche l, Sche l, & LeC e, 1999). F he e, a hi d i ca ied d i g he COVID 19 a de ic e i d, i i e diffic l ca he i e ie i Chi a a d li e a ell.
3.2 DEFINING SECONDARY DATA ANALYSIS
Tech l gical ad a ce e able h ge a f da a be c llec ed, c iled, a d a chi ed. The ea e f acce i g da a f e ea ch ha bec e e e ale a d i ec da da a a al i . Sec da da a a al i i a iable e h d ili e i he ce f i i he a e a ic ce i f ll ed (J h , 2017). Haki (1982) f he de c ibed Sec da da a a al i a a f he a al i f a e i i g
da a e hich e e i e e a i , c cl i k ledge addi i al , diffe e f , h e e e ed i he f e e he i i a a h le a d i
ai e l . I he d , ec da da a a al i begi i h a i e iga i lea ha i al ead k a d ha e ai be lea ed ab a ic h gh
e ie i g ec da ce a d i e iga i he ha e e i l c d c ed i he ecified a ea f i e e . De i e he fac ha e ea che i a a ie f
di ci li e a e i g c ea i e a e l e c le a ea f i i , ec da da a e ea ch e h d i ill a de - ed e ea ch ech i e i a field .
3.3 USEFULNESS OF SECONDARY DATA ANALYSIS
Sec da da a a al i ha bee ed i a e f e ea ch de ig ch a c a a i e die , i e e ie a d ide backg d i f a i bef e
a i g i a da a c llec i (Bick a & R g, 1998). Sec da da a a al i al all he e ea che a g e ha a ce ai ble e i a d ha a i
ech i e a e a ailable l e i (S be , 2002).
O e f he aj ad a age f ch e ea ch i c effec i e e a d he c e ie ce i ide (Dale, A b , & P c e , 1988; S i h & S i h, 2008). Addi i all , i he a ea f i f a i lic , ili i g e i i g da a ca all he
e ea che a e i a i e- e i i e lic ela ed e i icke (Magee, Lee, Gi lia , & M , 2006).
F hi Ma e he i a d bei g a e e ea che , he e ce f i f a i a i ec da da a ide he l i e a i e a l g e i e l gi di al e ea ch e i . I addi i , he la ge blicl a ailable da a e agg ega ed e i i g da a e e e a iable i f ec i e i e iga i . The g i g da a e ed b e i e al ca i g c i e f i f a i
di g li ical, ec ic, cial a d ech l gical de el e (Hil e , 2008). A he a f da a i c ea e i i ea kee ace i h i a d
c e -aided e ca hel e ac a d e l i i f c ea i g i igh a d k ledge ab he cha gi g e i e (Kelle & Heik , 2014).
3.4 SOURCE OF THE DATA
Seale (2004) a g ed ha , da a f j al i al able a i i acc a e a d eliable. The fac ha , a icle hich a e bli hed i j al a e ee e ie ed gi e
c edibili he da a (Ree e a d Walbe g, 1997). O he ce f ec da da a a al i a e efe e ce b k , ade j al , e e i g, c edible eb i e a d
ech ical e . A (Hei e , Ka jalai e , R alai e & S ei lle , 2017) a d (Eckh ff, Ma k , La ig & Sch , 2015) gge c llec i g eak ig al f
e i he al ce a d cial edia c e ( ch a a , cie ce fic i , al e a i e edia, bl g , e a e ), al ec e ded b (Decke , Wag e & Sch l , 2005), he I e e i a ef l l f de ec i g eak ig al , ch a c e a ke , e ea ch i i i , j al a icle , li ical licie , e c. I hi d , he i a
e ce f da a a d eak ig al ha e bee c llec ed ba ed he f ll i g : cie ific blica i (i cl di g b h j al a d c fe e ce a e )
ic- ecific li e c i ie a d f e a e li e e e acade ic a icle g e e lic d c e a i d c e a fil , Y T be ide , bl g e , e c. i age e a-da a f Flick
A b eakd f he ce i e e ed i Table 3.1 he f ll i g age. De ail f he ce a e laced i A e di (1).
Table 3.1: A li f he ce f i f a i Categor So rces Ne a e (8 e age cie ) S he Me li Dail The P a dc ie The Ne Y k Ti e The Sea le Ti e Tai ei Ti e Fi a cial Ti e The S d e M i g He ald L A gele Ti e O li e Ne e (24 e eb i e ) Vi i Te ce Ne S h Chi a M i g P 2 W ld T ade O ga i a i ISRI Gl bal Ne CBC Ne 2 FMT Ne AP Ne Re e 4 Pla ic I igh Na i al Ge g a hic Rec cli g da Ne E ea Pa lia e V e e BRS C e a i NBC Ne W ld Ec ic F The G a dia G e e P lic D c e a i (6 g e e age cie ) E ea C i i 2 A alia G e e 3 G e e f S h A alia D c e a Fil (2 fil ) Beiji g Be ieged b Wa e &
Pla ic Chi a
B k (1 b k blica i ) "J k a d la e : T a el i he billi -d lla a h ade"
3.5 SHORTFALLS OF SECONDARY DATA ANALYSIS
Sec da ce f da a a e i h ble . S e f he h fall f ec da e ea ch a e a f ll :
Si e f he da a ca be e hel i g he e ea che (S e a & Ka i , 1984)
P ble f da a acc ac a d he lack f c l he a f he e ea che (Bick a & R g, 1998)
S ce f he da a a be ele a he e ea ch ble (Ree e a d Walbe g, 1997)
3.6 PROCESS OF SECONDARY ANALYSIS
A Hil e (2010) i ed ha eak ig al e e clea a he e , b hi d igh he he c e e ce cc ed. The fl cha f he a al i ce i
e e ed i Fig e 3.1 a e e ed he f ll i g age.
Fi , he e ea che ga he ed b h di ec a d i di ec i f a i ab he la ic a e ade bef e he Na i al S d P lic , i ch l gical de . The , e e i g a al e ha i f a i a d da a ca be ed a ig al eak ig al leadi g
he e l f he la ic a e i ba . Li i g he e b e acc di g he i eli e af e de e i i g he a cia ed ig al a d eak ig al .
F he e, he e ea che al c llec ed a d i eg a ed he lic a d ac i da a f he c ie i l ed i he la ic a e ade bef e a d af e he ba , acc di g
he i eli e, e a e f he a al i b b i i g i he A ici a i
F a e k. I he la e , he e ea che e a a el he ig al a d ac i b Chi a, de el i g c ie , a d de el ed c ie i he A ici a i
F a e k f di c i . A fl cha f he e ea ch ce i e e ed i Fig e 3.1 he f ll i g age.
Fig e 3.1: Fl cha f he e ea ch ce
Ga he di ec & i di ec i f a i la ic a e ade bef e Chi a ba lic
P e e da a i ch l gical de Re e e a al i i f a i be ea ed a ig al eak ig al P e e he e l leadi g ba De e i e ig al a d eak ig al . Li ig al acc di g i eli e
C llec &i eg a e lic & ac i b c ie i l ed i he la ic a e ade bef e a d af e he ba A al e i h he A ici a i F a e k he ig al a d ac i b Chi a (G 1) he ig al & ac i b de el i g c ie (G 2) he ig al & ac i b de el ed c ie (G 3) Di c a d c cl de i hi he A ici a i F a e k
CHAPTER 4
FINDINGS AND RESULTS
4.1 CASE STUDY OF CHINA NATIONAL SWORD POLICY TO BAN PLASTIC WASTE IMPORT
T de a e h he A ici a i F a e k k i he ga i a i , a ca e d ab he Chi e e la ic a e i ba Na i al S d lic i
c ide ed. Wi h he de el e f la ic d c i a ke , he la ic ec cli g i d ca e i bei g. Rec cli g ha he a egic e i e al ad a age f
a e a age e , a ell a he c ea i f f al a d i f al e l e i ie (La ge h e & D el, 2007).
Chi a i he ld' la ge la ic d ce (Zha g, Shi, Pe g, Wa g, Xi g, W , La , & Zha g, 2018; Wa g, The eli , S , B ala , H a g, Zha g, & W , 2019). Chi a ha a h ge de a d f la ic a e ial . The c f e a fac i g
la ic f la ic a e i ch l e ha ha f i gi la ic (Y hida, 2005). The de a d f e ce a d chea lab a e i a fac d i i g he ld'
ec clable a e i Chi a (Y hida, 2005). The e fac d i e Chi a lead i he i a i f la ic a e i he ld (Wa g, Ghadi i, Li , & T e g, 2019). F 1988 2017, Chi a ha la ed a i a le i he gl bal la ic a e
ade (Wa g, Zha , Li , Che , & S he la d, 2020). A d i ce 1992, 45 e ce f he ld' la ic a e ha bee e ed Chi a (B k , Wa g & Ja beck, 2018).
H e e , ec cli g i a e c le a d challe gi g ce , ega di g la ic d c ha e a ide a ie f addi i e , i e , a d e (Hahladaki , Veli , Webe , Iac id , & P ell, 2018). The a e f la ic al li i he be f
i e he ca be ec cled (B k , Wa g, & Ja beck, 2018). I he d , e e i h he ad a ced a d effec i e ec cli g ech i e , la ic ca be
ec cled i defi i el . I he ce f la ic ec cli g e a i , he e a e a l f ble ha a e c d ci e he e i e . A g he e ble a e e i e al ll i a d a e di al i e (B k , Wa g, & Ja beck, 2019). Chi a i ed i Na i al S d lic i Ja a 2018 ba i g he i f
la ic a d he a e ial i i c (Ka , 2019). I he ce f cl i g i d i ed la ic a e a d he ec clable a e , i ha d a icall affec ed
he ld la ic ec cli g a ke (S h Chi a M i g P . A il 23, 2019)
4.2 IDENTIFICATION AND ANALYSIS THROUGH ANTICIPATION FRAMEOWRK
I he gl bal ade f la ic a e, de el ed c ie ha e e ed la ic a e de el i g c ie f decade (B k , Wa g, & Ja beck, 2018). De el ed c ie a d de el i g c ie , e eciall Chi a, a e he ai c ie i he i e a i al la ic a e ade.
Th , he e ea che di ided he c ie i ac ed b he Na i al S d la ic a e ba i h ee g . The fi g f c e lel Chi a, he i i g ba
lic c . The ec d g c i e 6 de el i g c ie hich i cl de I dia , Vie a , Mala ia, Tai a , Thaila d, I d e ia. A d he hi d g , de el ed c ie ,a e aj e e f la ic a e. U de hi ca eg , a e i cl ded he U i ed S a e , Ja a , Ge a , U i ed Ki gd , E e, Ca ada, A alia, a d Chile. Ba ed he A ici a i F a e k, he h ee g e e a al e ba ed he f ll i g a ec :
a) c bi e eak ig al a i g ig al i h he c e f he g , b) a al e i de ail hich age f he f a e k he g bel g , c) ha e e a d i ac g had,
4.2.1 WEAK SIGNAL BEFORE THE BAN POLICY
The eak ig al i f a i bef e he Na i al S d lic c llec ed b he e ea che a f ll :
a) Grephic Photograph OF Beijing Waste Area (October 2008 B Ji liang Wang ) (Sig al: Me be f he blic la ake )
M . Ji lia g Wa g a e ded i a e hibi i i La h I e a i al Ph g a h E hibi i i 2009 a d S g Zh a g A M e i 2010, hich a ed e le' a e i (Vi i Dec.06,2009).
Image T pe of Sign/
Signal Format and E ent
王久良《垃圾
围城》
Wa g Ji lia g i a f eela ce h g a he a d a h f he d c e a ie " T a h Be ieged " . The d c e a "T a h Be ieged" a c le ed i J e 2011. Fig re 4.1 Fig re 4.2So rce: The G a dia (Ma ch 26, 2010) Signal: Me be f he bilc la ake Fig e 4.1: Pla ic a e ha al c le el c e ed a a k ha i ill de c c i Fig e 4.2: Pla ic bag f h a fece c llec ed f la e , ai a d c ache a e d ed he e. Wi h c e ie a di e f he a e, f i e d i la dfill , al g i h he a e, e ce f a all a ha 2 i a e hibi i i La h : a. I e a i al Ph g a h E hibi i i 2009 b. S g Zh a g A M e i 2010
b) 2011- Beijing Besieged b Waste -- doc mentar film
F he e i d 2008 2010, Ji Lia g Wa g i i ed e ha 460 a e a d a d Beiji g. He a eled 15,000 kil e e ake e ha 10,000 h a d
e 60 h f ide f age (Wa g, 2011). The i e e cha ge i g a h f he a e a d a e e e ed i Fig e 4.2.3 4.2.7
Image T pe of Sign Format and E ent Fig re 4.3 So rce: F he ae ial h g a e , a i g f a e a d e e a ked i h ell d . Sign: Me be f he blic la ake We ca clea l ee ha he e a e a d f a ell ci cle, a d Beiji g a i he ce e f he ci cle. Beiji g a ded b a e. Fig re 4.4 Sign: Na e A cl e ae ial h g a h f h ee la ge la d a ea de ig a ed a a e field i 2005.
Image T pe of Sign Format and E ent Fig re 4.5 Fig re 4.6 Fig re 4.7 Sign: Na e Sign: Na e Sign: Me be f he blic la ake Ae ial h g a h f he a e la ge l f la d f he a e a ea i 2007 Ae ial h g a h f he a e la ge l f la d f he a e a ea i 2009 Ph ake f a e fill i he a ea a de ic ed i he ae ial h g a h i 2010
I 2005, he e h ee ddle e e ill g ee . I 2007, he ddle he fa lef a filled i h hi e a h. The he ddle e e al c a i a ed i 2009, he
ddle i he iddle a f ll f black e age, a d he e he fa igh a f ll f ed e age. B 2010, h ee ddle had bee filled i h ga bage. Fig e 4.4 Fig e 4.7 a e ec d f cha ge i h ee la ge a e fill ake f G gle a .
c) J ne 29 & J l 13, 2011 The deep eekl section of So thern Metropolis Dail
O J e 29 a d J l 13, he dee eekl ec i f S he Me li Dail f c ed f eig ga bage i N h Chi a (S he Me li Dail , J e 29 & J l 13, 2011).
Bef e he i e f he la ic ec cli g i d , d i ki g ell ca d ce g d a e if d illed 100 e e , i i c d ill Well 300 e e , e e dee e , he dee e ell ha bee d illed 500 e e , b b cke f a e d i k. F e ha a decade, l cal g e failed he h ical e a i a i f c c i i . The e i ha j he e i e ha ha bee de ed, b he li e f he e le he el e a d he a i al he la d.
Image T pe of Sign Format and E ent Fig re 4.8 A fl ck f gee e a bl cked b ga bage Sign: Me be f he blic la ake A fl ck f gee e i bl cked b ai f ld la ic a he e a ce Cha gch illage. The i e i ll ed a d he g llie a e filled i h bbi h, he e d he l g f hei f d?
d) 2011 A g 07 - YanZhao Metropolis Dail
Acc di g he Ya Zha e li dail A g 7, he i g d gh ea f We 'a c , a fa e ed he a e f he h f he illage f Xia Ba
i e a e he hea field , did e ec ha h a d f ac e f hea al l . U ea f he i e i he c a la ic a ke i Yi illage, he
e i e 'a (Te ce Ne , A g 17h, 2011). Thi iece f e
h ha he a e i he i e ca l ge a e he c beca e he la ic a e e ce i g ha e i l ll ed he i e .
e) "J nk ard planet: Tra els in the billion-dollar trash trade" in 2013 "J k a d la e : T a el i he billi -d lla a h ade" i a b k i e b Ada Mi e . I i ab ha he a a d hea d he he i i ed dee l i e 'a c , Chi a, hich a he ce e f he ld la ic a e ec cli g i d , b cha ce i 2010 (Mi e , 2013).
He e' h he de c ibe e a i hi b k:
We 'a a ce a c f clea a e a d bl e k , fa f i eache . B he e hi g g ee . I a dead e . The a e a e af e he ec e d c i f la ic a e i di cha ged a ill i h ea e , h he i bec e a ell d ga bage d . The ge ell f b i g la ic fill
he ai .
The ai a d he e i e a e ll ed, he heal h f he e le li i g he e i al a ake. High bl d e e a d he bl d di de a e bec i g e c
he e, a d he e di ea e e d be ge . L g di ea e al afflic he l cal la i , i e e e ca e , a ie a e e bec e i ca aci a ed. A a ie f
a d e i e al c di i gge ha l a fib i a d a al i g ke a e cc i g a g g e ide .
f) No ember 2016 Plastic China Chinese doc mentar film
Thi i M . Wa g Ji lia g' ec d Chi e e d c e a la ic ll i i 2016. The fil ell he f fa ilie h ake a li i g b ec cli g i ed
la ic a e i he ec cli g i d chai (Wa g, e al., 2017). Fig e 4.9 Fig e 4.14 highligh he i ac f la ic ll i i he c i .
Image T pe of Sign Format and E ent Fig re 4.9 Fig re 4.10 Fig re 4.11 Sign: Me be f he blic la ake Sign: Me be f he blic la ake Sign: Me be f he blic la ake The la ic a e aked i a e A Chi e e a ake ca e f he bab hile i g ga bage, i dica i g ha la ic a e i Chi a i a all ed The child a la i g i h a edical i ge
Fig e 4.11- 4.13 h he a f he child e life f fa ilie i l ed i he la ic a e ec cli g i d . T ic j k a d a e hei la g d, di ca ded
edical eedle a d gl e a e hei . Mea hile, Fig e 4.14 i he e he li e ck li i g i a bad e i e .
I al ca be ee e e he e i he d c e a : Wa e a a e ll ed b e age f he ce f clea i g la ic a e, a d he ec clable deb i i ei he b ed i he ai elea e ic b a ce d ed di ec l i i e bed .
Image T pe of Sign Format and E ent Fig re 4.12 Fig re 4.13 Fig re 4.14 Sign: Me be f he blic la ake Sign: Me be f he blic la ake Sign: Me be f he blic la ake
The child ble a edical gl e a a ball The child e e e la i g i he ga bage a d The hee aged f d a g he bbi h
Di ec Wa g Ji lia g aid i a i e ie ha Chi a' eg la ed la ic ec cli g i d ha a h ge i ac he e i e a d e le' heal h (S h Chi a M i g P , Feb.13d, 2015). The d c e a e e Chi a' i d ial chai f
ec cli g i ed "f eig ga bage .
g) Ri er plastic emissions to the orld s oceans p blished at J ne 7th, 2017
Ri e la ic e i i he ld cea i a 2017 d bli hed i Na e, he d f d ha f he 20 i e ca i g la ic i he cea , 15 e e f A ia a d 6 f Chi a. A ia' i e a e e i a ed acc f 86 e ce f gl bal
la ic e i i (Leb e , Va De Z e , Da eeg, Sla , A d ad , & Rei e , 2017).
C bi e he ab e i f a i , eak ig al ca h ible he e a a d ble , hich ca be e g he ed eake ed e i e (S i h & D b i , 2010; Hei e , & Hil e , 2012). O e i e, he eak ig al ab e ge ge , eak
ig al ha e a ici a a e, he e ig al ge he , a d, b i e e i g he , bec e a i g ig al (Ca , Ca -Fa a , & Le ca, 2018), a i g e le f
ha igh ha e .
The e ea che c iled a i eli e f he ele a ac i f he c ie i l ed i he la ic a e ade bef e a d af e he Na i al S d P lic , a h i Table 1. he f ll i g age. I he e ec i , he h ee e f c ie ill be
Timeline of Bans / Restrictions (Actions of Go ernments) (Signals: Me be f he blic la ake )
J l 2017 I J l 18h, 2017, Chi a had ified he W ld T ade O ga i a i (WTO)
ha i ld c ackd he i f la ic a e(WTO, Oc be 3d, 2017).
N .15h, 2017 Chi a ed a e 0.5 e ce c a i a i a da d i i fili g he
WTO, hich la effec i Ma ch 2018 (ISRI N 16h, 2017).
Ja . 2018 The Na i al S d P lic f Chi a ake effec (Ka , 2019).
Ja 1 , 2018 O Ja a 1 , 2018, M eal, he fi big ci i Ca ada ba he e f
la ic bag , fficiall i le e ed a ba he e f la ic bag i h a
hick e f fe e ha 50 ic (Gl bal Ne Ja 1 , 2018).
Ja 11h, 2018 The B i i h g e e i ed f a d b a i l a a d
eg la i e e i i A G ee F e: O 25 Yea Pla I e he
E i e , la ed "Achie i g e a idable la ic a e b he e d
f 2042" (Def a, 2018).
Ja 16h, 2018 The fi E e- ide la ic a eg ha bee ad ed, ake all la ic
ackagi g a ailable i he EU a ke b 2030 ec clable, ed ce he e f
i gle- e la ic , a d li i he i e a i al e f ic la ic (E ea
C i i Ja .16h, 2018).
A il 10h, 2018 S h Ca li a f h-la ge ci a ed a ba f i gle- e la ic
bag , f a f d c ai e a d e (The P a dc ie A il 10h, 2018).
A il 2018 A alia ai ake ackagi g 100% ec clable, c able e able
b 2025 (A alia G e e A il 2018).
Ma 12h, 2018 The a e g e e all ca ed $12.4 illi S h A alia'
ec cli g i d , ai ed a i i g he ec cli g a e f l cal a e
(G e e f S h A alia, Ma 12,2018). Ma 16h, 2018 Va c e j ba ed he e f la ic a , hich i he fi aj ci i Ca ada d . Va c e ld al effec he ba di ib i g f a c a d ake c ai e b J e 1, 2019. A d i ai ba all e f lid a e b 2040 (CBC Ne Ma 16, 2018). Ma 28h, 2018 The E ea C i i ha ed a c ehe i e e f ea e
de he Si gle-U e Pla ic Di ec i e c b i gle- e la ic . The la ic
eg la i a eg i cl de he ba f a , c ab i h la ic,
la ic la e , c le , la ic c ffee i e , a d la ic ball h lde , hile
he i g a e f he la ic , ch a b le , i e hi 90% b 2025
J e 1 , 2018 Chile ha bec e he fi c i he A e ica ba e aile f i g
la ic bag ec 4,000 ile f i c a li e f ll i (The Ne
Y k Ti e J e 1 , 2018).
J e 5h, 2018 The I dia i e i i e ha i ed ha all i gle- e la ic ill be
ba ed f I dia b 2022 (CBS NEWS J e 5h, 2018).
J l 1 , 2018 Sea le ba ed 5000 e a a f i g la ic e il a d a , hich
a he fi ci i he U i ed S a e d (The Sea le Ti e J l 1 ,
2018).
J l 2018 Vie a a ced i ld e i e e i a e lice e a d
ld al c ack d illegal i a e , la ic a d e al i i c
(Re e J l 26h, 2018).
J l 23d, 2018 Rega di g c lai f ll i i e b e ide , Mala ia i hd e 114
ce i g la ic a e fac i lice i g (FMT Ne J l 24h, 2018).
J l 24h, 2018 Sa F a ci c ill effec he ba f la ic a a d c ai e b J l 1 ,
2019 (AP Ne J l 25h, 2018).
Se . 6h, 2018 Ja a ha all ca ed 5 billi Ye e ea ch a d d c i f
bi la ic , la la ic d c ade f e le (Pla ic I igh
Se .6h,2018).
Oc .1 , 2018 Tai a i ed ic e ic i he e f la ic a e ha ca be
i ed, i h fi e f N $10 illi f i la , a i g Oc . 4h,
2018 (Tai ei Ti e Oc . 2d, 2018).
Oc .14h, 2018 Thaila d ill effec he e a e ba la ic a e i b
2021(Fi a cial Ti e Oc .14h, 2018).
Oc .24h,2018 The E ea Pa lia e ha a ed a ba i gle- e la ic, i cl de
a , c ab , di able la ic la e , a d c le (E ea
C i i Ja 18h, 2019).
Oc .26h, 2018 Mala ia ill c ack d he i f la ic a e e i l h gh
ha i g he e a e ba f he e f la ic a e (i cl di g "clea " la ic ) i i hi h ee ea (Re e Oc .26h, 2018).
Oc .29h, 2018 The UK i i e a e a b i e e ha a fac e i
la ic ackagi g ha c ai le ha 30 e ce ec cled a e ial (Re e
Oc .29h, 2018).
Ma ch 6h, 2019 I dia ill ba all e f la ic a e i (Rec cli g da Ma ch 6h,
Ma ch 27h.
2019
The E ea Pa lia e ha ed a d ad ed ba la ic a ,
able a e, a d he i gle- e la ic d c a d ill effec b
2021(E ea Pa lia e , Ma ch 27h, 2019).
Ma ch 2019 Vie a ill ba all la ic a e i i he c b 2025
(V e e Ma ch 27h, 2019).
Ma 10h, 2019 187 c ie ha e ag eed a d ig ed a e ag ee e de he U i ed
Na i Ba el C e i eg la e he i e a i al la ic a e ade a d
li i i c a i a ed la ic a e e c ie (BRS
C e a i Ma 10h, 2019).
Ma 28h, 2019 Mala ia ha a ced i ill hi 3,000 e f c a i a ed la ic
a e back i c ie f igi , i cl di g A alia, Ca ada, he UK, he
US, a d he We e c ie (NBC Ne Ma 28h, 2019).
Ma 2019 69 c ai e e e hi ed back Ca ada f he Phili i e (Re e Ma
31 , 2019).
J l 2019 I d e ia a he fi S hea A ia c e d c a i a ed la ic
a e back A alia af e i f d i c ai ic b a ce (The S d e
M i g He ald J l 2d, 2019).
A g 9h, 2019 The C cil f A alia G e e (COAG) ha a ed ake a
de ailed i e able f A alia e f ce i ba he e f a e
la ic, a e , gla , a d i e hile i i g i d e ic ca aci
d ce high- al e ec cled g d (A alia G e e A g 9h, 2019).
N 8h, 2019 A alia' fede al a d a e e i e i i e ha e elea ed a de ailed
i e able f i le e i g he e a e ba (A alia G e e N .
9h, 2019).
Ja 15h, 2020 Vie a la b ild he c ' fi ci f e la ic a e, he il
ci be a ced la e hi ea (W ld Ec ic F Ja 15h, 2020).
Ja 19h,2020 Si ce he hi d a e f la ea , Mala ia ha hi ed 150 b e f la ic
a e back hei c ie f igi , i cl di g F a ce, he UK, he US,
Ca ada, S ai , H g K g, Ja a , Si ga e, P gal, Chi a, Ba glade h, S i La ka, a d Li h a ia (L A gele Ti e Ja 19h, 2020).
4.2.2 ANTICIPATION OF BAN POLICY ON WASTE PLASTIC IMPORT 4.2.3 GROUP 1: CHINA
I he begi i g, he ig ha he e i e i bei g ll ed b la ic a e a e e i ed b a e. F e a le, The G gle a h he cha ge i he c l f he
ddle a d he la ic ec cli g la f he ea 2005 2010 (fig e 4.4 - 4.6). A d he a e i e 'a i e ca l ge a e he c (Te ce Ne , A g 17 h, 2011), he d i ki g ell eed d ill f bef e 100 e e 500
e e (S he Me li Dail , J e 29 & J l 13, 2011). B i did a e e le' a e i .
The he h ee la ge d e e filled i a if hi g had ha e ed; B a he G gle a clea l h , Beiji g i ded b h d ed f ga bage d . I ca e be iced ha he g e i he la ic a e d c i ce e had
a ed he edical e a i a i f c c i i i he la decade . Bl d di ea e , l g di ea e , a d a al ic ke a e bec i g e c a d e d be ge i ha egi . Re ide eali ed ha he i e ce i g f la ic
a e ld affec hei heal h, a d he i ched d i ki g b led a e , b la ic a e ce i g c i ed. A g he e age , he e ea che c lla ed
e e e aki g ca e f babie hile a all i g h gh he ga bage i e , ell e i e . Medical a e ha h ld be i ec cli g ce e i la ed b child e , . The e a e he Sig ha a e a d e e gi g cc e ce d ced i l a il b he beha i a d ac i f e le.
I 2017, a d f Na e ee a he Sig al f a i ic . The d f d ha f he 20 i e ca i g la ic i he cea , 15 e e f A ia a d i f Chi a. A ia' i e a e e i a ed acc f 86 e ce f gl bal la ic e i i
(Leb e , Va De Z e , Da eeg, Sla , A d ad , & Rei e , 2017).
N abl , i a l af e he i f a i a blicl e ed b Chi e e edia, d c e a di ec a d h g a he , a d f eig j ali , a d a ea ed i he f f cha ac e i Sig al Me be f he blic la ake ha e le k i
The e ea che Chi a i he edic i del f a al i . F Chi a, a i g a ici a e he fac i ha Chi a e i e e i l ll ed a d Chi e e e le' heal h i al affec ed. A d, Chi a, a he ld' la ge i e f la ic
a e, i e i e ha bee badl affec ed.
Fig e 4.15 The i i f Chi a (G 1) ega di g he A ici a i F a e k Whe he i ' he hee be f ga bage i e a d Beiji g i he Beiji g
Be ieged b Wa e d c e a , he e e e ll i i e 'a c , he ld' ec cli g ce e , all h ha Chi a i faci g e i e al a d heal h i ac . Th e "i ac " ha e bee c ea ed, a d he fac i he e. The i i f Chi a h ed a Fig e 4.15. U de ch ci c a ce , ha Chi a ca d a d be d e i i e i ake he ac i af e fac . I J l 18h, 2017, Chi a had ified
he W ld T ade O ga i a i (WTO) allegi g ha i he i ed a e, he e a e a l f di a e e e ha a d a e i ed i i h lid a e ha ca be
ed a a a e ial , hich had e i l ll ed Chi a' e i e (WTO, Oc be 3d, 2017). Ac i af e fac f Chi a i he Na i al S d P lic .
A a ed b Ka (2019), he la ic a e c ai i g ll a ha e e hel ed Chi e e ce i g facili ie . Chi a i faci g a e i e i e al ble , hich
i ca ed b Chi a i elf. Chi a' Na i al S d P lic i ai ed a e e i g he ead f ll i g a e ial i Chi a. M i a a d Ha a hi (2018) al i ha Chi a' eg la i he i f la ic a e a d ela ed hibi i licie a e ai ed a ed ci g e i e al ll i a d h a heal h i k . A he a e
i e he Chi e e g e e al la e he efficie e f d e ic la ic a e b e g he i g he c ' ec cli g i d (M i a & Ha a hi, 2018). The e ac i af e fac a e Chi a' eff fi hi fac . A lea ake i
e (Le ca & Le ca, 2011).
4.2.4 GROUP 2: OTHER DEVELOPING COUNTRIES IMPORT OF PLASTIC WASTE
A Chi a' i eg la i la ic a e ha bec e igh e i ce 2010, i
a ic la , i he ea af e he Na i al S d P lic , Chi a' la ic i l ged 99 e ce (Ka , 2019). Chi a ill ha a high de a d f la ic a e ial a d all
he i f ce ed la ic a e ial , ch a ec clable a e ial . Which c ea e a e la ic a e ade e (M i a & Ha a hi, 2018). The la ic a e ade ha bee la gel di e ed S hea A ia c ie , a d he g ad al i c ea e i la ic i f he c ie ha ig aled a edi ib i f he b de f he gl bal
la ic a e ade (Wa g, e al., 2020).
H e e , i S hea A ia c ie , a e a age e a d ec cli g e a e de de el ed (Wil , R dic, M dak, S , Ca i e , Veli , & Si e , 2015). The e S hea A ia c ie ca deal i h ch la ic a e. Rela ed e i e al ll i i he i e, a d he a id g h f i ed la ic a e ha bec e a big i e (M i a & Ha a hi, 2018).
Chi a' la ic i lic ha bee igh e ed i ece ea , a d he ece he Na i al S d P lic ade Chi a' la ic i l ged 99 e ce , he a e
ig al f Me be f he la ake a d ig al f a i ic f Chi a. I i a a i g ig al f G 2 ha he ec cli g ade ill be edi ib ed. I addi i , a
e f ec cli g fac ie ha e ed hei ec cli g la f Chi a
S hea A ia c ie ch a Mala ia ca illegal la ic ec cli g a d ce i g i ec cled a e ial f e-e Chi a (M i a & Ha a hi, 2018). The ig a i f Chi a' la ic ce i g la bec e a ge ig al i ce hi
i a i ha accele a ed ll i a d he ble . A he ig al (Na i al Ge g a hic N .16h, 2018) i dica ed ha Chi a' ba a h i hif a e
c i i S hea A ia .
Fig e 4.16 The i i f de el i g c ie (G 2) ega di g he A ici a i F a e k
F ll i g Chi a' f e , a e e f ba a d c ackd he la ic a e i i a i g a ea i he e c ie (M i a & Ha a hi, 2018).
The i d c i f he ele a ba lic i G 2 c ie a d e e e f he e he la ic a e he igi al c , he e ac i ca al be defi ed a a i g ig al f G 2. B he e licie a d ac i ha e di ec i ac be ee G 2 c ie he el e . Th e a i g ig al a e g e gh a d e i e c ie i G 2 be e i i e de ec h e ig al a d ell a al i .
G 2 c ie a e a ed i he ec e i d i i f he A ici a i F a e k ( ee a Fig e 4.16), he e, af e ha e e ha e ha e ed a e he i e a i al la ic ade e cha ge hei c ie af e Chi a Na i al S d P lic g e i effec ; Chi e e ec cli g fac ie e G 2 c ie , Pla ic
a e a e al i g i he e c ie . Weak ig al he e i a i g ig al , he fac ha he a ici a i f G 2 i ha if G 2 d e hi g a d all hi g g f a d, he c ie i G 2 ill be he e c
e i e af e Chi a ffe badl ll ed b la ic a e ha ill gl affec he e i e a d e le' heal h. The ad a age f he Rec e i d i ha G 2 c ie ill ha e i e ake "ac i bef e he fac " a id he fac c e e. Table 4.1 h ha G 2 c ie ake ac i e ac i a id
he fac : bec e a he Chi a i h e i e i e al ll i .
4.2.5 GROUP 3: DEVELOPED COUNTRIES THAT EXPORT WASTE PLASTIC
G 3 ha l g bee de e de he la ic a e e ed he c ie , he he i ' Chi a' lic igh e i g he Na i al S d P lic f G 3 a e g a i g ig al . Af e Chi a e ic ed he i f la ic a e, g 3 a hif hei la ic a e G 2. F he a al i i he e i
a ag a h a d he i eli e f ba / e ic i b la ic a e ade ele a c ie i ece ea ( Table 4.1), i i diffic l ee ha G 2 i al
igh e i g he i lic . Each i e G 2 i ed a e lic e ic i g he i f la ic, hich i a g ig al f G 3.
The hi d g f c ie i al i he ec e i d i i ( h i Fig e 4.17). E e ch a Chi a' la ic ba , he de el i g c ie a e igh e i g
hei i licie f la ic a d e e cl ed hei i d . The hi d g f c ie i faced i h he fac ha la ic a e ha lace g a d ha be di ed f i hei c ie , e e acc la ed a d d ced ll i .
Fig e 4.17 The i i f de el ed c ie (G 3) ega di g he A ici a i F a e k
I fac , he a e begi i g face h e ble : Ba ed a e a le f Ka (2019), i 2018 al e, UK b ed e ha 500,000 e f la ic a e al g
i h he h eh ld a e beca e i c ld be ec cled effec i el . A alia' ec cli g i d i i ble beca e i ca ha dle he 1.3 e f a e ha
a e Chi a e i l . Rec cli g c a e a i g i he U i ed S a e , a d a c i ie ha e ed ced ed ec cli g g a al ge he .
The e a e a i g ig , a d he ge he a i g, he alle he ec e i d ha ca be fi ed (Le ca, e . al., 2012). He ce, G 3 c ie a e ac i el
i g, i he h e , e he la ic a e hi he de el i g c ie . B A ia ha a e i la ic ll i ble . Shi i g la ic a e A ia ill
l ake hi g e (Na i al Ge g a hic N .16h, 2018).
A he ec d g f c ie igh e hei licie i i g la ic a e, i ill bec e ha de a d ha de e i i he f e. Acc di g Table 1, he a e c i l i e i g i he c c i f hei a i al e f la ic a e
ec cli g a i i e hei ec cli g a e f la ic a e a d i e ic e e ic i he e f la ic d c .
CHAPTER 5
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
5.1 FROM WEAK SIGNS TO STRONG AND DANGEROUS SIGNAL-THE CHINESE EXPERIENCE (GROUP 1)
B he i e, Chi a ha ec g i ed a d ack ledged he ig al , he e a a g ea e e e f ge c ake ac i ec if he i a i . Ne e hele , he cha ge a c ide ed la e a d i had i ed he i f ec e a d be i a be e
i i ha dle f e ible cha ge . The e ea che c lla ed a e ie f i f a i bef e he Chi e e ba a d f d ha he la ic a e ca ed e i e al ll i , he ig f a e ld a ea . F e a le, he fi he died, a d he i e beca e dd . I a al i ible f he i e a e be
ed f i iga i a d e i i g f d i ki g.
The eak ig al i he ba lic a c ide ed eak. Thi c ld be ee f he ided e a le i Cha e 4, he cha ge f a elli e i age ab he ddle
ea he ai a e ea e la a d Beiji g i Fig e 4.4 Fig e 4.7 Wi h he a edia ac i g a he i f a i di e i a i cha el, h ha he e i e a d e le' heal h i he a ea he e la ic a e i ai l ec cled a d ce ed a e e i l affec ed. Thi i a e ide ce f h eak ig al e e l ge eak, a d beca e g a i g ig al .
The i a i de e i a ed f he he l cal la i h ed ig f ill e e a d he e e ge c f g ea e heal h i e a d ble . I fac , he e e e al ead
ge ig al ha h ed he e i da age i c ed i he a al ec l gical e . Thi beca e a c i i i he ge e le i he a ll ed a ea failed hei h ical e a i a i f he ili a c c i i . Thi i he c e f
The e e i e i ac he la ic ll i a al a g ig al f he c lla e f he ec l gical e i e .
5.2 ADAPTING TO STRONG SIGNAL - THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES EXPERIENCES (GROUP 2)
B c a , de el i g c ie (G 2) ake Chi a a a e a le, a d ha ha ha e ed Chi a c ld ea il e e a a i g ig , gi i g g 2 c ie e
i e a id bec i g a he aj la ic a e ll e i he f e.
I ie f he fac ha G 2 c ie a e aki g eca i a e i h a i e i e ec i ea e , he a e i a be e i i ackle la ic a e
ll i i he f e. I addi i he ig al f Chi a, e a i ical a al e f de el i g c ie (G 2) la ic a e i af e Chi a' ba ca al be
ed a a i ical ig al ake i i i e a ici a i f G 2.
I e e he g ig al b he Chi e e g e e , lic - ake i he de el i g c ie a e aki g a e ac i e a eg a d he g
ig al cha ge. G 2 c ie cce i el ad ed "Ac i bef e he fac ", a d ch licie a d ac i ca be e cei ed a a ki d f ig al. A c ie i G 2 a e di ec l affec ed b he e licie , he ig al a be g. B
a i g a e i he i a be e a ici a e f f e cha ge . F e a le, f he la ic a e i i g c ie ha e ad ed licie e ic i . Will he e f he c ie i G 2 ha ha e ecei ed he ig al ac i i e
ab he la ic a e all hi i hei c ie ? The ef e, a id he ible i k i he f e, G 2 h ld ha e he e i i e ide ifica i f ig al .
5.3 ADAPTING TO STRONG SIGNAL - THE DEVELOPED COUNTRIES EXPERIENCES (GROUP 3)
M f he la ic a e i G 3 a hi ed G 1 a d G 2. The e e i g c ie ha e l g elied Chi a ec cle hei a ed a e. The Chi e e ba a a g ig al G 3. H e e , he ge he ig al, he
alle i he ec e i d . G 3, c ld ha e ac all fel e ig al a d gea ed i e a a i bef e he i ba ca e i lace. S ch a ge ig al f he Pla ic Chi a d c e a , "J k a d la e : T a el i he ll - d lla
a h ade" he bli hed b k. B k a d d c e a ie he e a e he ea l a i g ig al , c ld e i d f hi g f h ee, Chi a ha l aded acce a ce f la ic
a e, h ld eek a la ic l i a a ible. 5.4 DISCUSSION & RECOMMENDATIONS
I he A ici a i F a e k, i a c e i cl de eak ig al , ig al , a d ea l a i g ig al . The e e i e ga i a i a al e a d a ici a e
ible e e a d hei i ac i each g f c ie b ide if i g a d c llec i g he e i i el . S e f he e e he el e a be g a i g
ig . F e a le, a la ge be f la ic a e a d la ic a e ce i g la ha e el ca e hei c ie af e Chi a' la ic ba . Thi a a g
a i g ig . U de he A ici a i f a e k, he e c ie i G 3 ill a e he i a i ba ed he e de e i i g fac a e li ed a bel : a) he he he e e ha e cc ed b) he he he i ac ha bee ca ed c) ha age he ga i a i a e a i he A ici a i F a e k d) ha f he deci i a d ac i ca be ade I i h i g ha he eake he ig al , he la ge he ec e i d f he ga i a i , a d he g ea e he likelih d f aki g ac i a id f e ible e e a d cha ge . C e el , he alle he ec e i d , he e a i e
he ga i a i . A Nic le c (2018) ha e ha i ed, e he a ici a i e abili f ga i a i , a ici a i e a age e la a ke le. I a ici a i e
a age e , i h ld f c he A ici a i F a e k, e h d , ga i a i al l i , a d . Th gh he a al i f he a e e e f Chi a' la ic ba , i ca be f d ha diffe e g f c ie ha e diffe e de a di g f he
a e ig al. Af e he ig al a al i , e c ie c ide i a g ig al, hile e c ie c ide i a eak ig al, hich ha diffe e ea i g f diffe e c ie .
T be e e d f e cha ge , ga i a i eed de el hei a ici a i e a age e ca abili ie , i a a ec f hich a e he ide ifica i a d a al i f diffe e e f eak ig al a d ig al , a d al he e f he A ici a i F a e k. A i gle eak ig al a be a big , b e i e, a
e ie f eak ig al ca i ig f f e cha ge a d e d i likelih d a d la a ke le i a ici a i g a d i k a e e . B ha c di i ake ga i a i c ide a d belie e ha ig al a e g e gh a a e i a d cha ge? F he e ea ch h ld c d c a e ca e i a he field a d c i e a al e he a e e e h gh l i le g ee he he he de a di g f ig al ha diffe e ea i g f he a d h he c bi e ig al a d a ici a i del.
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