Testing the Option Value Theory of Irreversible Investment
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(2) CIRANO Le CIRANO est un organisme sans but lucratif constitué en vertu de la Loi des compagnies du Québec. Le financement de son infrastructure et de ses activités de recherche provient des cotisations de ses organisationsmembres, d=une subvention d=infrastructure du ministère de la Recherche, de la Science et de la Technologie, de même que des subventions et mandats obtenus par ses équipes de recherche. CIRANO is a private non-profit organization incorporated under the Québec Companies Act. Its infrastructure and research activities are funded through fees paid by member organizations, an infrastructure grant from the Ministère de la Recherche, de la Science et de la Technologie, and grants and research mandates obtained by its research teams. Les organisations-partenaires / The Partner Organizations $École des Hautes Études Commerciales $École Polytechnique $Université Concordia $Université de Montréal $Université du Québec à Montréal $Université Laval $Université McGill $MEQ $MRST $Alcan Aluminium Ltée $Banque Nationale du Canada $Bell Québec $Développement des ressources humaines Canada (DRHC) $Egis $Fédération des caisses populaires Desjardins de Montréal et de l=Ouest-du-Québec $Hydro-Québec $Imasco $Industrie Canada $Microcell Labs inc. $Raymond Chabot Grant Thornton $Téléglobe Canada $Ville de Montréal © 1999 Tarek M. Harchaoui et Pierre Lasserre. Tous droits réservés. All rights reserved. Reproduction partielle permise avec citation du document source, incluant la notice ©. Short sections may be quoted without explicit permission, provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. Ce document est publié dans l=intention de rendre accessibles les résultats préliminaires de la recherche effectuée au CIRANO, afin de susciter des échanges et des suggestions. Les idées et les opinions émises sont sous l=unique responsabilité des auteurs, et ne représentent pas nécessairement les positions du CIRANO ou de ses partenaires. This paper presents preliminary research carried out at CIRANO and aims at encouraging discussion and comment. The observations and viewpoints expressed are the sole responsibility of the authors. They do not necessarily represent positions of CIRANO or its partners. ISSN 1198-8177.
(3) Testing the Option Value Theory of Irreversible Investment* Tarek M. HarchaouiH, Pierre LasserreI Résumé / Abstract Nous établissons par la méthode des actifs contingents la valeur de l'option d'effectuer des investissements irréversibles réels qui sont sensibles aux paramètres économiques prévalant au moment de la décision. Nous testons ensuite si des mines de cuivre canadiennes choisissent bien d'effectuer leurs investissements en capacité de production au moment où le prix du cuivre atteint le niveau critique impliqué par la théorie. Les résultats sont fortement en faveur de celle-ci. Le modèle explique tant la taille que la date des investissements d'une manière statistiquement et économiquement satisfaisante; des simulations avec un processus de retour à la moyenne indiquent que ces résultats ne dépendent pas de façon cruciale de l'hypothèse que le prix suit un processus Brownien géométrique. This paper statistically tests the option theory of irreversible investment under uncertainty. Using contingent claims valuation, we derive the value of options to invest in capacity, where the projects are endogenous to the economic circumstances prevailing at the investment date. We then test whether capacity investment decisions made by Canadian copper mines are compatible with the trigger price implied by the theory. The results speak strongly in favor of option theory as a theory of real investment. Our model explains both investment size and timing satisfactorily, from a statistical, and from an economic, point of view, and numerical simulations with a mean-reverting process suggest that the results do not depend crucially on the price being assumed to follow a geometric Brownian motion. Mots Clés :. Investissement irréversible, incertitude, actifs contingents, valeur d'option, modèle « Putty Clay », investissement réel, prix critique. Keywords:. Irreversible investment, uncertainty, contingent claims, option value, Putty Clay, real investment, trigger price. JEL: D92, G1, L72, Q31 *. Corresponding Author : Pierre Lasserre, CIRANO, 2020 rue University, 25ème étage, Montréal, Qc, Canada H3A 2A5 Tél. : (514) 985-4011 Fax : (514) 985-4039 courriel : lasserrp@cirano.umontreal.ca We thank Marcel Dagenais, Phil Merrigan, Harry Paarsch, Pierre Perron, and Robert Pindyck for comments on an earlier version of the paper. We also thank the participants in the Batterymarch Finance Seminar at the Sloan School of Management, the Finance Seminar at HEC (Paris), and the IDEI-CREMAQ Seminar at Toulouse, as well as anonymous referees, for their comments. Financial support from the SSHRCC is gratefully acknowledged.. †. Statistics Canada. ‡. Université du Québec à Montréal and CIRANO.
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(109) ff LMtih@|L?t OLiihc @t 4i?|L?i_c tL4i 4?it ?it|i_ 4Lhi |@? L?Ui @| ?|ih@*t Lu *itt |@? i )i@ht W? tU U@tit |i @|?} TihL_< @t hi_Ui_ ? tU @ @) |@| |i |4i TihL_t ULhhitTL?_?} |L _gihi?| ?it|4i?|t M) @?) L?i h4 _L ?L| Lih*@T At |i LTTih +@?_ ?i i T@?_i_ ? bSH @?_ @}@? ? b.f Ai bSH i T@?tL? E?@* _iUtL? ? bSS }i?ih@|it i LMtih@|L?t EbS2SS U _L ?L| Lih*@T | |i ht| i LMtih@|L?t 4i?|L?i_ @MLi EbDeDH OLiihc u |i @|?} TihL_< ULhhitTL?_?} |L |i b.f i T@?tL? @t ?L| hi_Ui_c |i *@||ih L*_ }i?ih@|i @ tihit EbSeSH |@| L*_ Lih*@T | |i ThiLt EbS2SS tihit( UL?ti^i?|*) i @**L L?*) |L LMtih@|L?t EbS.SH uLh |i *@t| LTTih +@?_ ?i i T@?tL? t @ hit*| Lu |iti @_t|4i?|tc |i _@|@ ti| ?U*_it 2SH LMtih@|L?tc Sf Lu U ?U*_i |i _iTi?_i?| @h@M*it W @?_ 'W ? LMtih@|L? @*@)t UL?tt|t Luc Lh 4@!i ti Lu @h@M*it UL?t|hU|i_ uhL4c |i uL**L?} @h@M*it E? @*T@Mi|U@* Lh_ihc ht| w@|?c |i? Bhii! G E| G LT|L? Thi44 ULiUi?| @| )i@h |( E| ' K E| * EK E| | K E| }i? M) EH ( EH ?L*it |i |4i tihit @h@M*it k E| c j E| c o E| c os E| c 4s E| c @?_ |i UL?t|@?| C E G Lhi }h@_ic ? TihUi?|@}ic uLh ?it|4i?| EUL?t|@?| Lih |i @|?} TihL_ ( E|c G @u|ih|@ L ThUi Lu ULTTih hi*@|i |L 4@|ih@*t @| | uLh ThLiU| E|i ThUi 4@) _gih @| @?) _@|i Mi|ii? ThLiU|t u |i |@ T@h@4i|iht _gih ( W E|c G i ihUti ThUi @| | uLh ThLiU| hi*@|i |L |i ThUi Lu 4@|ih@*( @?_ W UL?U_i T |L @? ihhLh |ih4 i? @? ?it|4i?| LUUht( L|ihti W t ?L| LMtihi_( W W ' E|c G LT|4@* U@T@U|) @| | uLh ThLiU| E' t LMtihi_ L?*) i? @? ?it|4i?| LUUht ( o E| G hi@* _tUL?| h@|i uLh *L?}|ih4 ThLiU|t @| |( i ti| o E| ' o E| ( os E| G ht!uhii hi@* ?|ihit| h@|i @| |( o E| G ht!@_t|i_ hi@* h@|i Lu hi|h? @| |( - E G 4?ih@* hitihit uLh ?it|4i?| EUL?t|@?| Lih |i @|?} TihL_ ( r E G )i@h Lu |i }L @i@_ _iUtL? uLh ThLiU| ( r ' 7 S( S ' 2( 7 E G )i@h Lu ThL_U|L? t|@h|T uLh ThLiU| ( |G )i@h Lu @ 4@Lh U@T@U|) ?it|4i?| _iUtL? E@|c Lh }L @i@_ ( ` E|c c ` E|c G @u|ih|@ L ThUit Lu *@MLh @?_ i?ih}) hi*@|i |L 4@|ih@*t @| | uLh ThLiU| ( ` E|c G @u|ih|@ @tti| ThUi Lu U@T|@* i^T4i?| hi*@|i |L 4@|ih@*t @| | uLh ThLiU| ( f E G _44) @h@M*i uLh ThLiU| E' uLh LTi?T| LTih@|L?t( ' f uLh ?_ih}hL?_ LTih@|L?t( UL?t|@?| Lih |i @|?} TihL_ ( k E| @?_ j E| G _hu| E' k E| k E| ? |i @u|ih|@ ThUi Lu ULTTih hi*@|i |L 4@|i h@*tc @?_ |t @h@?Ui T@h@4i|ihc @t it|4@|i_ @| | Etii |i | ( B E| G _tUL?| h@|i E' o E| kR E| @TT*)?} |L hii?it @| |c @u|ih ULhhiU|L? uLh |i _hu| kR ? hi@* L|T| ThUi( G h@|i Lu ?i|h@* |iU?L*L}U@* U@?}i E@tt4i_ UL?t|@?| ( 4 E| G _tUL?| h@|i E' o E| k E| @TT*)?} |L @h@M*i ULt|t @| |c @u|ih ULhhiU|L? uLh |i hi@* h@|i Lu }hL| k E| UL44L? |L |i uLh u@U|Lh Lu ThL_U|L? ThUit E ? Th@U|Ui k E| ' f ( 4s E| G ht! uhii _tUL?| h@|i @TT*)?} |L @h@M*i ULt|t @| | E' os E| k E| ,. .. g. R. WW.
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