Cahier 2003-24
DOLADO, J.J.
MARIA-DOLORES, R.
RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J.
Nonlinear Monetary Policy Rules: Some New
Evidence for the U.S.
Département de sciences économiques
Université de Montréal
Faculté des arts et des sciences C.P. 6128, succursale Centre-Ville Montréal (Québec) H3C 3J7 Canada http://www.sceco.umontreal.ca SCECO-information@UMontreal.CA Téléphone : (514) 343-6539 Télécopieur : (514) 343-7221
Ce cahier a également été publié par le Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative (CIREQ) sous le numéro 18-2003.
This working paper was also published by the Center for Interuniversity Research in Quantitative Economics (CIREQ), under number 18-2003.
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Résumé
Dans cet article, nous dérivons les règles de politique monétaire optimales dans des cadres où "l'équivalence certaine" n'est pas satisfaite. On trouve des cas de ce type lorsque, par exemple, les préférences de la banque centrale ne sont pas quadratiques ou lorsque la relation d'offre agrégée n'est pas linéaire. Les résultats théoriques semblent montrer qu'ils peuvent conduire à des asymétries de signe et de niveau et à des nonlinéarités dans la règle de politique. À partir d'estimations de la forme réduite sur données américaines, nous trouvons que la politique monétaire des États-Unis peut être caractérisée par une règle décisionnelle non linéaire après 1983, mais que ce n'est pas le cas avant 1979. Ces résultats reflètent bien la nette différence d'attitude de la Réserve Fédérale face à l'inflation durant les périodes Volcker-Greenspan et Burns-Miller.
Mots clés : règles de Taylor non linéaires, objectifs d'inflation, préférences asymétriques, courbe de Phillips non linéaire, politique monétaire
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