This section presents a Trade and Gender Index (TGI) that summarizes the evolution of gender inequalities and trade in a single indicator over time. More precisely, the index provides an indicator of gender inequalities in the workplace through the computation of a gender employment gap and a trade openness indicator that measures the extent to which the country opens to trade. This index is computed at the sectoral level, including only those sectors for which data are available and reliable; in the case of Kenya they are agriculture, forestry and fishing, and manufacturing.
6.1. DESCRIPTION Of ThE INDEx The TGI is computed as follows:
TGIs,t=
where s refers to the sector and t to the year, and the numerator and denominator are calculated as follows:
Gender Employment Gaps,t=
where Males,t is the quantity of male labour in sector s in year t, and Females,t is the quantity of female labour in sector s in year t. The choice to
incorporate a gender employment gap as opposed to a gender wage gap is driven by data constraints, as wages, when available, are not differentiated by sector. However, the interpretation of the gender employment gap is similar to the (relative) gender wage gap indicator: any increase in the ratio implies a worsening in gender inequalities, as it is computed as the difference between male and female employment as a percentage of male participation. for instance, a gender employment gap of 40 per cent indicates that females are 40 per cent less present than men in this sector. Note that this indicator is referred to as a
“raw” measure in the literature, as it does not elicit the determinants of the observed differences.
The denominator of the TGI, trade openness, is obtained as follows:
Trade Opennesss,t=
where Xs,t is the value of exports in sector s in year t;
Ms,t is the value of imports in sector s in year t; and GDPs,t is the gross domestic product in sector s in year t. This indicator measures the relative importance of international trade flows in the economy of the country. Put differently, it provides an indication of the extent to which the economy is open to trade. The more liberalized the country, the higher the value of the openness index.
It is important to note that changes in the TGI always need to be evaluated together with changes in the
Important cautionary remarks need to be considered regarding the interpretation of the Trade and Gender Index:
• The index does not deliver the results of a causation analysis, i.e. it is not able to tell whether the worsening or the improvement of gender inequalities is caused by trade openness, as there exist many confounding factors. rather, it informs about the simultaneous evolution of both dimensions.
• The index relies on the existence of sound and comprehensive data; therefore, it could be computed only for the formal sector of the economy.
• The index aims to be used for within-country analysis over time. Due to the difficulty of having comparable data and of identifying causal relationships, in most cases cross-country comparisons are not viable. In addition, no ranking across countries can be made based on this index.
Box 1. Cautionary remarks about the Trade and Gender Index Gender Employment Gaps,t
Trade Opennesss,t
Males,t- Females,t Males,t
Xs,t+ Ms,t GDPs,t
gender employment gap and trade openness; either positive or negative changes in the TGI by themselves cannot be interpreted as a positive or negative outcome. for example, a decrease in the TGI may be due to an increase in trade openness together with a decrease in the gender employment gap (which is a desirable scenario), but it may also be due to an increase in trade openness together with a worsening of the gender employment gap by a smaller magnitude (which is clearly a non-desirable case). In order to use the TGI for policy purposes, therefore, both the signs and the values of the gender employment gap and trade openness need to be taken into account. Box 1 presents some of the cautionary considerations when interpreting the TGI.
By definition, if there is total equality in employment between men and women, the numerator, and hence the TGI, takes the value zero.22 In the analysis that follows, when computing the index for the specific case of Kenya, we will clarify the sources of variation of the index by explicitly providing the values of the numerator and the denominator.
6.2. ThE TRADE AND GENDER INDEx fOR KENYA
Based on the data collected from the United Nations Comtrade database for trade flows and from Kenya’s Economic Surveys for the GDP and labour force figures, the TGI is computed for Kenya for the period 2008–2015. The index is calculated for the agricultural and manufacturing sectors for which data were readily available. for the services sector, the openness indicator cannot be computed as it consists mostly of non-tradable products.
The corresponding indices are plotted on figure 14.
Accordingly, three phases can be observed over the period. from 2008 to 2011, the level of the TGI is relatively stable; a decrease appears in 2012, followed by a rebound from 2013 onwards. According to the decomposition of the index in table 22, the decline in the TGI in 2012 is explained by a greater reduction in gender inequalities than in openness to trade. More worrying is the positive trend in the value of the index from 2013 onwards. In both sectors, this increase is driven by a worsening in the gender employment
Source: Calculations by the UNCTAD secretariatbased on Kenyan National Bureau of Statistics, Economic Survey, various years.
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0
Agriculture Manufacturing
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Figure 14. Trade and Gender Index, 2008–2015
VI. Trade and Gender Index 37
gap, reaching 48.6 per cent and 80 per cent in 2015 in the agricultural and the manufacturing sectors, respectively. Simultaneously, the share of agricultural trade flows in the economy declined over the period, contributing to the increase in the index. while both components could interact with each other, without a causal analysis it is arduous to attribute the deterioration in gender equalities to the variation in trade openness.
Source: Calculations by the UNCTAD secretariat based on Kenyan National Bureau of Statistics, Economic Survey, various years.
Note: GEG: Gender Employment Gap; TO: Trade Openness; TGI: Trade and Gender Index.
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Agriculture
TGI 1.11 1.16 1.16 1.23 0.88 1.30 1.57 1.86
GEG 64.4% 63.6% 69.7% 69.9% 39.1% 42.7% 48.9% 48.6%
TO 58.0% 54.7% 60.0% 56.8% 44.3% 32.8% 31.2% 26.2%
Manufacturing
TGI 0.61 0.63 0.61 0.47 0.40 0.74 0.61 0.66
GEG 77.2% 77.1% 82.1% 80.5% 59.5% 77.7% 77.4% 80.1%
TO 127.5% 123.3% 134.5% 170.3% 150.1% 105.6% 127.8% 120.7%
Table 22. Decomposition of the Trade and Gender Index, 2008–2015
The TGI in Kenya suggests that the evolution of gender inequalities in the country should be under scrutiny due to the worrying trend observed in recent years.
Moreover, the possible implementation of the EPA is likely to make working conditions worse in sectors involving a significant share of the female workforce.
NOTES
22 By construction, the index has no upper or lower bound, as it is a function of two indices that are not bounded themselves.