Strategic Information Management System and Services (SIMSS)

A Strategic Information Management System and Services or SIMSS to be maintained by FSS is proposed as an Aid for Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation. SIMSS is developed as the proper run­

ning of UAM and GOFSP and would require a wealth of information and data that would need to be efficiently organized. The inclusion of food security concerns in economic development and manage­

ment would assume:

• proper identification of the population accord­

ing to their food security status (vulnerable or non-vulnerable groups) and size;

• characterization of the food insecure popula­

tion by specifying the nature of their food insecurity (problem of both economic and physical access), the type of food insecurity (seasonal, transitory or chronic) and possibly the degree of their food secu­

rity (moderate or high) and the location;

assessment of the cost and impacts of alter­

native optimal programmes including projects, pol­

icy actions and measures of achieving targets for total and/or partial graduation, and

• monitoring of the food security situation of the candidates for graduation, the vulnerable and non-vulnerable population from one planning period to another,

A global data and communication network would be maintained at national, subregional and regional levels for use by the private companies, govern­

ments, pressure groups and consumers. The data­

base would contain information and data coming from budget and consumption and nutritional sur­

veys of households, the input form of UAM and the output of GOFSP, notably the DFSP. The data and information should be in a form that is useable by the private, as well as the public sector to facilitate their respective contribution to sustainable develop­

ment and increased self-reliance in food security.

Also, equipment such as fax machines, personal computers, networks and other information tools would be needed to ensure increased productivity in generating, processing and communicating infor­

mation. For instance, the establishment of tight data links (computer networks) between suppliers, warehouses and stores in every strategic site to avoid excess inventories and to lower cost in pur­

chasing and distributing food, notably to the vulner­

able population would be useful.

The FSS should develop a Tableau de Bord which would be a set of key indicators for monitoring and evaluating the impacts of the interventions. The Tableau de Bord will help to provide an instant snapshot of food security conditions and develop­

ment situations in the country concerned in a con­

densed form. Food security indicators, in particular, will help to understand the performance in produc­

tion, consumption, trade, subregional cooperation in food and factor markets from one planning period to another.

This will serve as a good measure of food and factor markets and should enable investors to un­

derstand the opportunities in each market for pos­

sible interventions of governments and investments by both the private and public sectors individually or in joint venture. The idea of the Tableau de Bord will help to standardize the indicators, which could be implemented at both national, subregional and regional levels through the respective FSC.

The possibility of interesting the private sector to track certain indicators, notably those related to commodity markets could be encouraged as there is a potential for guiding investors in food markets and for profitable operations. Indeed, the firms could charge a small fee by guiding investors where and when market demand and supply exist. The index could be used as an important hedging tool against market fluctuations as operators often like speculating in commodity markets.

The Tableau de Bord would be a set of primary and secondary indicators. Primary indicators would be related to the stratification of the population into vulnerable and non-vulnerable groups with the latter further stratified. Secondary indicators could be related to key variables included in the optimal DFSP retained by decision makers for implementation.

They would serve, in particular, to assess the effi­

ciency of the government interventions towards achieving the food security specific objectives for the period under consideration.

1. Primary Indicators

Primary indicators of food security would be developed to help monitor the movement of popu­

lations from one state of food insecurity to another.

The following primary indicators could be used:

UPlit: percentage of urban moderate food insecure in total population in period f;

• UPl2t: percentage of urban high food insecure i n t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n i n p e r i o d t ;

• RPlit: percentage of rural moderate food inse­

cure in total population in period t, and

• RPIzt: percentage of rural high food insecure in t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n i n p e r i o d t .

2 . Secondary Indicators

Secondary indicators could be related to any of the variables included in the DFSP. These variables could be related to ensuring sustained national food security based on collective self-reliance and pro­

moting the economic access of the eligible house­

holds for graduation. Targets could be set for the share of domestic production in total supply of a given commodity, employment rate for a given category, population growth rate, migration rate, income level and distribution, wage rate, inflation rate, price level, tax revenues, stock reserve level, foreign exchange reserves, foreign exchange rate or import quota on products and inputs.

For instance, if national food security is to be achieved based on an increased measure of self-suf-ficiency in a given commodity, then the Self-Suffi­

ciency Ratio (SSR) for that commodity could be included in the Tableau de Bord as a secondary indicator. Also, if economic access of individual households to food is to be achieved with higher

47

employment, then the employment rate could be included as a secondary indicator.

IV. CONCLUSION

Widespread chronic food insecurity across the continent made it imperative for African leaders to reorient Africa's development towards sustainable growth and improved food security based on in­

creased measures of self-reliance at individual households, national, subregional and regional lev­

els. Actually, the time is right for the structural transformation of the economy to take place on the continent, as a new generation of political leaders who had no other alternative but to deliver or to leave the leadership is being put in place.

In the present circumstances of rapid change in African countries, it is very difficult to make accu­

rate "guesstimates" regarding possible evolutions in the agricultural and rural sectors. The world has enough experience on the effects of a switch from a market economy system to a planned economy or a non-market economy and of its impact on food self-sufficiency and food security, but little or no experience in turning the clock back. As the politi­

cal, structural and economic conditions governing the agricultural sectors are somewhat different from one African country to another, it is likely that each will have to find its own transitional path. Such a transition will certainly not always be a smooth one.

It would appear that the unprecedented challenge of reshuffling both the political system towards a democratic one and the economy towards a mar­

ket-oriented system at the same time can only be carried out at considerable cost. Moreover, there is also the risk of not settling on the right reform system at the outset which would ensure food security within the framework of food self-suffi­

ciency in the long run and having to proceed by trial jnd error. It cannot, therefore, be excluded that in a number of cases the apparent light at the end of the tunnel does not necessarily indicate the end of the tunnel but rather the headlights of an oncoming fast train.

Indeed, African leaders of the 1990s are bound to create and maintain the favourable climate (de­

mocratization of development process, adequate judicial system, commitment to development and economic and political integration) for the new breed of businessmen, including migrants who have

financial resources and the business know-how to operate within a nation, subregion or on the conti­

nent efficiently and confidently. Admittedly, the crisis in international assistance and the neglect of the "social pilar" under past SAPs reform packages were leading factors for changes in the mentality of African people and the leadership in Africa.

African people are learning at their own expense that they have to develop, based on increased measures of self-reliance and within the defined subregional, regional and global framework by pro­

moting stiff competition within a subregion, within the continent and at the world level. Africa has to move from over-reliance on the rest of the world, notably for essential goods and services and the basic foods that its population require for its survival if it is to be respected by the rest of the world as a true partner in global international development.

Just as the agricultural and rural sectors in Afri­

can countries have to be transformed and adjusted to changing circumstances. Western industrialized countries themselves have to take account of the ongoing process. It seems certain that the changes in African countries will create new opportunities in the form of new market outlets for produce from Western industrialized countries and other develop­

ing countries as well and vice-versa. However, trade should be beneficial to all the partners in­

volved, it cannot be a one way street. The agricul­

tural policy-makers in the EEC, USA and Australia should try to find a way between the two extremes of optimism and pessimism keeping in ming that Winston Churchill defined an optimist as "'someone who sees an opportunity in every danger and a pessimist as "someone who sees a danger in every opportunity".

The present research was a contribution to the efforts of the new breed of leadership in its efforts to structurally transform the economy for sustained growth and an improved situation in food security based on increased measures of individual and collective self-reliance. The work has concentrated on developing tools and methods for better plan­

ning, management and assessment of strategic interventions to help sustain success in the trans­

formation of agriculture and rural sectors to help attain food security within the framework of food self-sufficiency in the long run.

REFERENCES

Brown J. Catherine. Market Indexes, New uses for a vulnerable investing tool. Newsweek, May 25, 1992. The International News Magazine.

Brown J. Catherine. Country Funds. Whether it's the lure of a quick profit or long-term growth, country funds offer somethirfe for every one. Newsweek, May 25, 1992. The International News Magazine.

ECA. Technical Publication on Food Security: Typology and Prospects in Africa. JEFAD/RA/90/51.

ECA/FAO Agriculture Division, Addis Ababa, 1990.

FAO. Preparation of Comprehensive National Food Security Programmes: Overall Approach and Issues.

Food Security Assistance Programme. Second Ad Hoc Consultation with FSAS Donors, Rome, 27 October 1989. FSAS 2nd Ad Hoc Con 89/2, 1989.

Nana-Sinkam, S.C. Article in Food and Agriculture in Africa - ECA/FAO Agriculture Division Staff Paper No. 1, The Fate of Smallholders and Other Rural Poor in Africa during the Structural Adjustment Transition.

Nana-Sinkam, S.C. Article in Food and Agriculture in Africa - ECA/FAO Agriculture Division Staff Paper No. 2, Food Security or Food Self-Sufficiency - Why should Africa Increase its Food Production?

Nana-Sinkam, S.C. Article in Food and Agriculture in Africa - ECA/FAO Agriculture Division Staff Paper No. 3, Subvention ä la production, politiques de prix de soutien autosuffisance alimentaire en Afrique : Mythe ou R6alit6?

Niang, A. Article in Food and Agriculture in Africa - ECA/FAO Agriculture Division Staff Paper No. 1, Framework for Interventions in the Livestock Sector: The Case of the'West African Subregion.

Romero Carlos, Francisco Amador and Antonio Barco. Multiple Objectives in Agricultural Planning: A Compromise Programming Application. Amer. J. Agr. Econ. Vol 69 (1987): 78-85.

Smith Morisol, Judy Pointing and Simon Maxwell. Household Food Security: Concepts and Definitions.

An Annotated Bibliography. The Institute of Development Studies. Brighton, Sussex, 1992.

49

ANNEX

Three alternative methods for stratifying the vulnerable population are discussed in this annex.

Deviation from the Threshold Calorie Intake

One could consider by locality those members of the food vulnerable group that consume below a certain percentage of the threshold calorie intake (norm) to be in a moderate food insecurity state. All other vulnerable populations will be considered to be in a high food insecurity state.

Deviation from the Trend Mean of Calorie Intake

If time series data were available, the two levels of food insecurity would be measured using the standard deviation from the trend mean of calorie intake observed in the locality. For instance, those members of the vulnerable group consuming below a given multiple of standard deviation from the mean calorie intake could be classified as high food insecure while all others would be in a moderate food insecure state.

A Third Approach

The third approach takes into account, in addition to food subsistence requirements, the minimum needs in cash for purchasing other essential goods and services for a productive life, as the members of the vulnerable group should be made increasingly self-reliant.

In the urban areas, the stratification of the members of the vulnerable group could be done on the basis of deviation from the dollar value of threshold commodity basket augmented cash required to meet the subsistence needs (income for all subsistence requirements). Using this concept, one might consider that those members of the vulnerable group with an income of less than a given percentage of the subsistence income requirement are in a state of high food insecurity. All other members will be considered to be in a state of moderate food insecurity.

In the rural areas, most members of the vulnerable group would be in a state of transitory food insecurity due to cash needs to acquire essential non-food subsistence requirements. Indeed, subsistence farmers are most likely to be in a position to produce just enough food to satisfy the subsistence requirement.

They might, however, be forced to sell part of that food to try to meet their minimum cash requirement and often at ^give-away price or contract loans at very high interest rates that will often be paid in kind during the harvest period when prices are lower. Such members of the vulnerable group, who potentially could meet their food requirements but are short of cash could be considered as moderate food insecure.

In the rural communities, there would still be a group of marginal farmers (high food insecure) who are short of both food and cash. These farmers are likely to remain in a state of food insecurity if they continue farming and co/jld, perhaps, come out of food insecurity only by selling their labour for income or by shifting to other alternatives.

Adequacy of food and cash X Source: The Authors

Moderate ORBAiSl

Less than a given % of income All others in the Group

Adequacy of food and inadequacy of cash

Table - Vulnerable Group by Location and State of Food Insecurity

51

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