r:tM~ll~,rrlUJlJ~llrJjW_:

Tourism in Africa depends to a large extent on

air~

which is the most common form of

transportatio~

by international tourists to visit Africa. It is inconceiv-~

to develop tourism in Africa without an efficient,

saf4~

r:tM~ll~,rrlUJlJ~llrJjW_:

24

gwrurlLJTWUtlUr1LH1iJfUUJTllittU]

i~ic ~UJ1UlilJ~\1JtuJnUnl1fTlJJlljlLrL1':~~'Uf1LJMlt1~

:iand affordable transport system. Indeed, the road system is[~

~inadequate and the land transport links both between states~~

2and between continents are not adequately developed. De-~~J

?SPite the fact that ECA has

initi~ted

^{nearly 20.} years ago the?

,2de~elopmen~

of Trans-African

~ghv:ays,

^the

Investme~t

^re-;§

tE(

qUIres to buIld these roads are qUlte hlgh. The constructIon ofr~

~these

roads can only be carried out with the improvement

of[~

~the economies of African countries or when they have paid oft1I:;:

2their debts. Furthermore, financing the construction of these5 s.;roads is facing a dilemma of ensuring maintenance of

the~J!

~present

roads, which are in a poor state at the

mome~t, as~~!

cc=-:well as the reluctance of donors to finance the constructlon

ofi]

~few

^{roads. In} both cases and even though the roads did

exist,~~

?odem tourism especially international tourism could onlY~i

§utilize aircraft as a means of travelling to Africa.

:d

~ .. ~~:

2airport infrastructures namely: the maintenance and

expansionL~

~ of building, runways, equipment and facilities for the storage}§

~lJfl1J1U1IUTfLfl'-lUfllJf(!j:-1lJr11l1UJ11r-=-lUJcmjf1bKlUf!UJTurlUffiJJll[1UnurlLil~l

~SJ ⁱⁿ the next ten years. AFRAA forecasts that Africa WOUld~

~need

by the year 2015, 707 aircraft to meet the growingS

~traffic

needs and for the renewal of its ageing fleet.

Afric~

i§lairlines will need 388 aircraft for fleet renewal and 176 morer21

r2

aircraft to meet the growing demand. The investment re-

S.i

tS;quired will be $ US 38 billion with an additional sum of 5~

~ billion to meet the cost of installations making a total of $

US:2

~43 million. The governments and the airlines would thereforer§~

Shave to seek these funds from the private sector through

the~

_iSlestablishment of new resource mob~lization policies .. In this§

~reg~~, en.co~ragement should b~ given to the es~bhshment~l

~of CIvIl aVIation funds and the strIct use of these funds for the2 Sdevelopment of civil aviation activities. For example, IATA~

~ showed that in 1998 the member airlines of the Associatio at~

=~ "--'

ICSla worldwide level paid the sum of $ US 7.4 billion as landin~

?fees and dues on the one hand and $ US 6.3 billion as fligh~

c2ldues on the other. These sums that have been collected by theC~

rc;,~countries and the African organizations in the form of dues2

~and taxes could be paid into funds to develop the civil aViatio~~

~. d ^;::JI

I

~~l;I-[!JfllJILlLUIT~xtunJJL1lUmlJt~nur lU:

:lJrlXll

JJ=UJlhruliJfllJi1JllJJ1JrllJl]j~

§replacement of its personnel and its growth requirements. ASl2:

~

Africa has limited training institutions, it is obvious that

ther~:-~~

:§present installation cannot cope adequately with the

personnel~

~trai~ng. requ~~ments. .~he go~e~ents should therefore~

~rethlnk: Its tratrung capacItteS for Its skIlled personnel and the~~

i~establishment of the necessary institutions to meet the high~l S]demand and ensure the availability of the personnel. . ~

~ ~

f~ (i) Cooperation between airlines and market frag-~I

Si

mentation ~

I " 'f,.j

?

^~

icj58. The fragmentation of the African air transport industry~

~in small units was inherited at the dawn of independence andre

~it

is among the many issues, which should be given

greaterlt~

~~attention by the management of airlines and African govern-~~

:~~ments in the dawn of the third millenium. Without muchlI~~~

;~consolidation African airlines continue to be small, frag-!!~

'§mented and, in most cases, are inefficient in view of their sizeiI:

:~~land the lack of the required economies of scale. I'd

1-·'-'-'if

259. Comprising a fleet of about 540 aircraft, which is

~than

the fleet of American Airlines, African airlines are veryrc

~ ~~

[~small, compared to the world norms. The biggest African~j

L2airlines are even smaller than any major American or Euro-~~jJ

~pean

airline. The fragmentation of African airlines and

theL~~

~market will continue to prevent them to attain the requir~;

S~conom~es of ~c~le t~ ~nable them become credible actors ~@

?

mternatIonal CIVtl aVIation. [~

~ ~

bl1JjlUItrut 1

~~XllJtUftmlJ

Jj:JfllJJ~1llilJriLrllfi]It1FJ[lr1Ii~TJl$1flf1UJlTIJJlflJlJJl1Jfl§1HJJr!lJJ11T-J]

[§j'60. It is foreseeable that a large number of private airlines~

~will

be established or will enter into competition with the§;

r~national airlines on domestic and regional routes and some-~Si 5ltimes even on intercontinental routes through the establish-2

::2"

ment of services to destinations that were abandoned by theL§

[~existing national airlines. ~l

~, 9

~~ ~

~61.

It is also assumed that very few African airlines on theiriSi

~own can develop a major trans-continental network. The2

;sJmajority of them would be confmed to remain as regional

an~

~.;}J as specialized transporters as a result of market forces and~§J

5subregional groupings, which are presently emerging,

§

~62,

A greate,r P?litica! will and, as well

~s

^{a more}

VigOrOUS~

~ trade detenrunatlon Will be required than In the past to enable[t:1

~iAfrican airlines ~ork i~ ~artn~rship and o~erate.joint flights.~

,t:!The smallest regIonal aulmes In the subregIon wIll be encour-~

~! aged to conclude trade agreements and other such agreements2

~With one or more of the international airlines. ~

~ ~

rS~ (j) Access to foreign !flarkets. improvement 0~~l1

~ services and development of networks ~~

~ ~

_ ]1 l~,

~63.

Whereas the network of African airlines focuses

their~

l5development on the international network with

European~

~?idestinations as the focus to the detriment of the regionalft~;

~~network

which is still weak, it is expected that other

conti-~

~~nents other than Europe such as the United States, the Middle~

21East and Asia will be given greater attention. '. ~

I~I ~

[tll~~l[41 .mntJ-~JiiIJ~L~nl_fjmJ~[LJIT~bj

[O~ruJfJ- : ,UJ'LU(~g!

~establishment

of more flexible policies on African market:2j

~~access. ~j

b,~ a

!c-::'

(k) Viability/development of airlines ~

r~, __ J;

~~65

In the past African airlines were generally weak

in~Lc~

[E~~competition and their operational costs were high and this~~i_

LSJtrend might continue into the next millennium. Indeed,

and:~~

;~Jassuming that the present structures and sizes are maintained~~~

~~it is very probable that most of the African airlines would no~

~-~;enable the~

reduce their operational. costs. Indeed,

trainingf~

r:;~costs are high and there are no saVIngs on the purchase of~J

r---' • .,~

~~Jalrcraft, on spare parts and other suppbes. Insurance and,1o;'

~=imaintenance

costs, which are done outside Africa, are high. IL::

'~ ~

~~67.

^African

airl~es

will only

.improv~

^their

competitivity~

~]through the establIshment of qualIty serVIce, a greater numberb

~of

flights and convenient time-tables as well as through bettert21

~Jma.nagement of products and earnings and a more competitive~

, . .J]tanff structure. "=~71

~ ~

tlrJli. IITL~~F1Uj1UlJlfJ1Lrlf[J-~lJITilTIJ11J1lI1LJJJiLDllJT1§'iLn

^ILl

~Ji

^i!

ji:~ jllirt!Jl~J

1J1lrr~TILlllJ1.rlf1LT1lJITu!iJJllJlg

Growing competition G~

r=~

LL l~

~i68. In addition to a long list of challenges facing Africa~:;J

;~iiairlines, there is a very visible growing competition. There is~

~~~

growing foreign competition as well as competition

among~j

L~;African air1ines. There has been several new and private~!;

~jairlines thereby increasing the number of transporters compet-r2

~ ing on the same market. ~

1(,--]1 Il-I

~l l~

~169. The network Africa - Europe will be largely dominated~;

::~ by the major world airlines with a vast international network~;;J u;:.~and possessing the commercial skills to gain the contidence of~j

!-Sltravellers. As a result, the market share of these foreig~

i~?l. The competition within the intra-African network will~

[~jtake a new dimension as the number of major foreign airlinesc~

~penetrate

the regional network through the establishment

o~~

~-J: a~rangements on code sharing, franchising and new commer-~

~lCIal agreements. b:

,~ I

~ ~

:~72.

^As

liberalizat~on

takes. root and the expected

econo~c~

u,s-;growth and traffic 1S consolIdated, greater number of forelgnT~

!~jJairlines

will operate in Africa.

rs~

~J f~~h.,! :!.·l~' ^F_l^{n1 rn--.I} rJ-'l.1

!~:j_~ ~ l~', ~ __ :J j~~'

lDfllJrlUJiIJ11JJl lli11JTIJ11LW1Uflllillf

lifllJnLWljrU1r1Lfi1lUftlil~JTll1i 1;J

llJrJlTIJlUQ

~73. ^In order to adapt to this growth and to ensure a marke~l

~share,

which is on the increase, transporters and Africanl§

§governments should undertake activities to enable their air-2

~Ilines to be well placed to derive benefit from this growth. ~~

~ ~

~ ~

~IV. PERSPECTIVES rc=;1

~ d

~74.

The development of trade in any given region is

closely~

slinked to the economic situation. It is therefore necessary~

i?before outl~ning the persp~ctives of air services d~velopment[~

If?-]to summanze the econotruc performances of Afncan coun-'S!

~tries. However, the perspectives will be seen from the issUe?l

~decline

of revenue per inhabitant. The growth in GDP of 3.32 Sper cent compared with a growth of 2.9 per cent in 1997 was~

~

the highest throughout the world.

~i

r~.~: ~,

~. ~

~76. This growth is a welcome success for Africa. Neverthe-~~

~less,

this growth is below the required level to make

a~

~ significant impact on poverty. In order to reduce poverty

bY2

5ha1f in the next fifteen years, it will be necessary to attain ~~

~sustainable average growth rate of 7 percent per annum. ThisS

~ ~

l51UnUftffllJllLfillrlUJ]JffiJril.JITJllJftfll1LlI 'LlllJr~IT1lJhlJJJlU:lJ1JnUI1IJ11tjt]

grJj1lJJlLflU[ljJ-:llITlliffiJf1LlrllfllliJtllfllJJllJ~rll1J1J1lllLITlill1L!nl.J[iJ5'ffi~DJLl;'Q ,.~economy. There has been a slow down in the world economic~

~growth

from 4 per cent in 1997 to 2 per cent 1998.

Th~

~recessio~

ⁱⁿ Asia that was triggered by

~e

monetary crisis

in~

sEast ASla spread throughout the world In three forms. Mar-1§

~ket economy shrunk in th~ :merging countries whereas. ~e~

~governments

pursued restrlctIve fiscal and monetary

pohcles~

§

to safeguard and protect their economies. Generally,

export~

~Africa,

Nigeria, Algeria, Egypt and Morocco) account for

37~

2per cent of the population in Africa and 59 per cent of GDP .~

[9Jllft~J1UflJ1UrllJfl;nlJ'LurtJJlll!lUI LLnUJllJnU~ilJliJlLlllUnU~U~Jn~JnJfl}~LfQ1 2Africa and the Central Afncan. subregions recorded growth I~

fFl¹1998 whereas the growth rate m the East, West and Southem§1

~,subregions declined. The oil exporting countries have main-~l

~tain~d their growth .rate as a group (3.7 per cent. in 1998rS

~agamst 3.6 the preVIOUS year) but the growth rate m Gabon~

~ and Angola fell by fifty per cent whereas the growth rate i~l

~the

Republic of Congo and Algeria rose as a result mainly

61f~

2Jthe revival in agricultural activities and drop in the oil price.$

ij

^~The non-oil exporting countries recorded a growth of 2.9 per~

~ ce~t

against 2.3 per cent in 1997.

~t

is encouraging that

~~~

t~;t thIrty-three least developed countnes recorded a GDP m-7:~

~crease

from 2.4 per cent in 1997 to 4.1 per cent in 1998. Th€

l~\lincrease in the five major economies stood at 2.2 per cent.§]

~against 3.1 per cent. Only two countries (the Comoros and~l

~the Demoratic Republic of Congo) recorded a negative grow~~

i~rate in 1998 instead of four (the Comoros, the Democratic~

~lRepublic of Congo, the Republic of Congo and Morocco) in?~

~1997. Nevertheless, only three countries (Botswana, Repub-i§;

~lic of Congo and Ec!.uatorial Guinea) recorded a growth rat~ off§;

1~,1 per cent or more In 1998, the avera~e growth rate requrredi?

I~to reduce poverty by half now and against the year 2015. rc~:

c^J r~

~ §

~~180. Agriculture still remains the dominant sector in Africa~',

~and

its revival bas contributed to the growth of GDP in

1998.~1

~Favourable climatic conditions and reforms have led to the~

[2

improvement in the availability and distribution of mOdem!§:

2resources as well as credit leading to an improvement

Dt2

~performance.

However, the removal of subsidies and thei2

~reduCtion in the growth of public se,rvices following reforms~

151UillJlUilU~utlLl:tj:llffiillJflilUflL1JlUmJrlLltnUrlruJllJrUJlUwllJtJIl1r1f!B

[gW1JfiUfUJriUrLllilIJf1JlHlLU" 1LlJ1lItLrJJ"jJJjiIT1lf1fllUf1lJrU Ulf1Ur-Ull1UlllrlJrU[CI

~have negatively affected the small producers in the agricul-l§

~~ral

sector. T?e

c~nstraint

ⁱⁿ

th~

^sector

~egenerated follow-~

smg the reduction In donor assistance In respect of mral~

?d~velopment projects and investment in the. rur~l social ser-~

~vlces. These developments have had a negative lDlpact on the~

~prospects for the development of food self sufficiency i~

:~the

^drop in the growth rate in the manufacturing sector,

S

~1 ~I

~

82. The recession in the emerging markets were

transmitted~

:~to

Africa mainly through a reduction in the price of

goods.~

[~the fIrst time during the 199Os, the trade balance was negative~

~pushing the present deficit to about 16 billion dollars, This~

2perennial imbalance in the services sector due mainly to§

~payments

of external debts as well as the cost of fmancial

and~

~5

transport services continues to exert pressure on the

present~

~ ~lbalance in spite of major earnings from the export of goods.

§

IL, - .

?I

5

allm"urnt"~NmUfruf1ill'l jf:l:11JTlf[uJlf1!rlnllfflL1~U1i1JnilllJ1~rlf[L§[UlU

IFW'iUilJ";: Ii

~.r ~1 ~ c:J

::~84. Credit flows recorded a drop in Africa from 4.5 billion'l::~

,-;~:] US Dollars in 1997 to 3 billion US Dollars. This is a resu1t~,~:

~gof a drop in private flows and bilateral loans. For sub-!f~

~~~iJSaharan countries net transfer dropped about 40 per cent. TheiL ^'J

~~relationship

between debt and GDP grew slightly. The

price~~

:jof exports rose suddenly due to the drop in export products'r~07\

~!Debt services stood at 35 billion dollars that is 31 per cent of~~

i~exports of goods and services. The present initiative

t00

i~~~;reduce debt has not significantly reduced the debt burden.~~n 5JAmong the 41 potentially eligible countries only one country::

~~~Jbenefited from the initiative in favour of Heavily Indebted and:r~J~

b T ^-~

r=:;Poor Countries (HIPC) . Uganda's debts was reduced by 20~j

~~per cent. It is expected that only four other countries namely ,:I'-=_~

~~l(Burkina Paso, Cote d'lvoire, Mali and Mozambique) will be!L~, (2~lgiven a debt reduction during the next three years.

~~,

~J85

As a percentage of GDP investment rose from 21

per!:.~

5

cent in 1997 to 23 per cent mainly due to an increase of on~~~

Glper cent in domestic savings. The major factors that led to thel2~

;~!change in domestic savings could be attributed to higherS

~~earnings and least consumption particularly in the public~

,I~jl sector. ^Ji

;c.-" ~l

L--~;186. Inflation feU from 15 per cent in 1997 to 12 per cent.;~J l;:;,The growth in agricultural production and the fall in the price~]j

;?,of imports contributed to containing consumer prices. The~s pdrop in external trade led to an increase in public deficits due~~;:~

lu'--W',! ^I; 'il fi": i^r , ,:'l n=l, r.::.;/ t"l r~1 :1"-IIf~-' (11' (fll rt'l jPl ill ''"U~r''l ,(,-,1'1'"

c...-.,\!; .=",J ~-::I Il_'J .::::j JoJJ L=!.: L-,' _:!.l k,,,, Ili! cbL \L lI:.J UJl th.:: Jd JdJ L~ ~=J

~87, The medium term perspectives have been promising in~l

~~};the

last four years reflecting an increase in GDP growth

rate.lc~~

~Nevertheless, climatic conditions and the external economic~i r:;environment which are two determinant factors of futureiE0

~~growth.

are unpredictable.

~

(b) Development perspectives of African air transport[~JI Ie

sen';ces lr;. .. '~

~::~:performances indicated earlier on. Indeed, it is estimated to~~

~~~)be the period 1995-2015: (i) International traffic win increase[~~;

~~by 5.5 per cent; (ii) the intra-African passenger traffic will~

L~increase by 8.5 per cent; (iii) and domestic passenger traffic~Sj

.J,

th:--l;jjwill increase by 6.7 per cent. The freight performance is~_

~lexpected

to be as follows: 3.2 per cent increase in

interna-~b:J~

~~tional freight; 9.5 per cent for intra-African freight trade; and~~

.'36.7 per cent for domestic freight. This forecast seemedrr;;

:?realistic but they could be only attained if the economies

otT~l

r~African countries continued to improve as presently demon-i~~

~strated, ~

~~ ~ I

~benefits

^{from new}

reg~lated

policies as well as state

divestj-L~,,-;

~~iture

in the management of civil aviation services and

infras-~_-~~

lf~tructures. However, it is expected that new operators will~~Ji

~enter the market, services will be improved, users will have~'

~~greater

choice, intra-African trade wil1 be sustained throughC_J

~~:~the

introduction of additional capacities and the intra-African;:; .

~SJand international network will be developed (increase in the~2 2number of flights and the introduction of new air Hnks).:S;

I~~l Alliances and cooperation will be maintained between Africant=:

~t;~airlines, which will lead to an improvement in the quality of~';

~c.i services to the establ ishment of joint marketing programmes.~·

r~~ As a result, there will be several tariff structures on the mos€~l 5;common air routes in Africa. A joint study ECAIADB iSli:~'

i~;~~presently on the way to quantify the impact of liberalization of~:

:= ':traffic rights on the economy of air transport in Africa.

The~

~recommendations of this study will be preseted during the~~~

;~~llsubregional

meetings, which will be held during the year

2000~~.1

:~'~by African subregional organizations.

,~rights and the economic recovery that has begun wi1l1ead to a~f-~i

~~~significant increase in traffic. There will also be a significan(~~­

S~increase in the movement of aircraft in some airports. This~:J

!2!

increase in the movement of aircraft and traffic will lead to an~'~i

~~; increase in the resources of airport authorities and otherS

_ I t • !t_~_

~~~authoritles responsible for the management of air traffic. Thei~~

=t,-_:Jrevenue accruing if re-invested in the civil aviation industry~

~':5] ^{lIli !lIJiJ}

n~ln'.lltflJ

llJlfJ;j

llfllII.-~

~r-:Jaccording to the wishes of the operators will contribute to the8

~}maintenance and construction of the infrastructures. 'r-':

:,J (e) Development of hubs

~"O~j91. As observed in other regions, African and foreign[~~

~';:airlines in an effort to improve the quality of their services;"1

~;~and increase their revenue will develop hubs in Africa. As ar~:'

~:;:'

result, some airports will be developed and the facilities irr-S)

r~these airports will be improved. ^I:

, .1,

Ie:.-:;

r--dJ

(f) New operators and service providers

~~I ^-c:.-, l~";las a result greater liberalization of access to African markets."J

;~:This will result in greater competition and will promote~':J

S!

alliances among African airlines or alliances with foreign~'=-~

1'-" .

::J1partners,

~~~J

(h) Improvement in security and safety

,

I .• ,

r -'=J94 Through the leAO programme and the American initia-lC~

~

38

Dans le document Development of air transport services in African: challenges and perspectives (Page 27-42)