EI Offa1s not included,

--II COUNTRIES

746.1 1110.5 8.83 10.04 48.8

1.3.7

!I

^{Calculated from data in} ECA/FAO Commodity Balance Sheets.

EI

^Offa1s

^not

^included,

Total consumption Consumption per cap- Per ~ent change

1970-80

'OUO metric tons ita - kil0tsrams

1970 1980 1970

1980 Total Per capita

Burur~di 1.0

1.)

0.28

0.34 5u.0 21.4

Ethiopia

99.0 151.0 3.92 4.76 52.'

^21.4

Kenya

49.0 67.0 4.52 4.47 36.7

^-1.1

l~ladal>ascar

3.0 4.0 (J.44 0.45 33:3

^2;3

"'~n.lawi . ~.O 3~O

0.44

^0,,50

50.v

13~6

".aur~tius 1.0

1.4 1.19

1.32 40.0 10.9

I

^U1

Rwanda 1.1 1 .1 0.)0 0.22

- -26.7

^VI

Sowalia

19 ..

^{0 25.0}

6.50 6.36 31 .. 6

-2.2

Tanzania. 36..0

47.0 2.12

~.69

30..6

-1.1

Ugmda 18.0 31.0 2.t1

2.75 ^72."2

^3e.3

Zambia 2.D

4.0 0.4-6 0.67

50.'0

45.-7

-11 WUNi'RIES _~31"1 336.0 2.7'3

3.04 45.4

^11.4

!Y

^CQlwlated fro!"'l data in" ECA/FAO Commodi ty Balance sheets

-

_o

E!

^{Ofrals ~ot included.}

Total consumption Per baiita consumption

Per cent change

1970-80

tOOO~metric tons ·lobr a ms

1970

1980

1970 1980

Total Per capita.

Burundi

1.5

2.1 0.42

0.48

40.0

14.3

Ethiopia

55.0 85.0

2.18 2.68

54.5 22.9

Kenya

11.0

23.v

1.u2 1.53

^{lu9 .. 1}

50.0

r'!d.datsascar 11.8 15.8

1.73 1.79 33.9 3.5

l·~alawi

7.0 13.0 1.55 2.15 85.7 38.7

i,~aurltrue

0.7 1.0 u.83 0.95 42.9 14.5

I

^\.11

u.6

v.11

0.12

o-Rwanda

0.4 50.0

9.1

Somalia 1.0 2.0

U.34

0 ..

51 10v.e; 5u.O

Tanzania

14.. 0

25.0

1.06 1.43 78.6 34.9

Ue;.anda i).O

14.0 v.94 1.24 75.0 31.9

Zambia

7.0

^{1<;_ .0}

1.61 2.34 100.0 45.3

-

- - - - - - - -

-11

C\-.,UNTRIL S

117.4 _195.5 1.39

1~77

66.5 27.3

!::I

(;ctlculated t ror; data in Appendix IIII'

Table IV-20: Cereals for Livestock Feed, 1964-66 and Projections for 1970, 1975 and 1980, East African Sub-region

1964-66 1970 1975 1980

Cereals for livestock feed

217

303

385 592

Total cereal production

12,136 16,107 18,868 22,490

Livestock feed as per cent of total

1.79 1.88 2.04 2.63 Source EeA/FAD Commodity Balance Sheets.

Table IV-21: Pork Consumption, Total and Per Capita, 11 East African Countr~es,

Projections for 1970 and 198(jN

Total Consumption Per capita consumption

Per cent change 1970-80 'OOG metric tons kilogram,S

1970 1980 1970 1980 Total Per capita

Burundi 0.3

0.5 c.o8

0.11

66.7

31.5

Et:':'iopia 1.0 2.0

sJ

^{0.01 100.0}

Kenya 4.0 6.0

0.37

0.40 50.0

8.1

}.~adagascar 21.0 _28.0 3.08 3.16 33.3 2.6

Kalawi 6.0 lC.D 1.32 1.65 66.7 25.0

Mauritius 0.6 0.8 0.71 0.76 33.3 7.0

P , 1.C 2.0 0.28 0.41 100.0 46.4

~.wan(la

Son:alia

--Tanzania

Ugancia 1.0 2.0 0.12 0.18 100.0 50.0

Zs.rr:oia 6.0 14.0 1.38 2.34 133.3 10.0

11 CO:'~:'2.!E;: t2.9

65.3 0.51 0.59 55.1

^15.1

!I

Calct.o.lated. from dat.a in ECi-l./FAO COItrr:odity Balance Sheets •

.£!

C:':als not incl'.lc..ed..

£/

less than 0.805 kilog:-ammes •

Table IV-22: Other Meat!! Consumption Total and Per Capita, 11 East African Countries.

Projections for 1970 and 1980

Total Consumption Per Capita Consumption

Per cent change 1970-80 '000 metric tons Kilograms

1970 1980 1970

1980

Total Per capita

Burundi

Ethiopia

16

24

0.64

0.76 50.0

18.8

Kenya 9 17 0.83 1.13

88.9

36.1

Madagascar 2

3

0.29 0.34 50.0 17.2

!'.alawi

Mauritius

1.8 2.4

2.14 2.27

33.3

6.1

Rwanda

5 ⁸

^{1.38 1.63 60.0 18.1}

Somalia 23

27

7.87 6.87

17.4

- 12.7

Tanzania 2 4 0.15

0.23

^100.0

53.3

Uganc..a 11 20 1. 29 1.78 81. 8 38.0

Zambia .3 6

0.69

1.00 100.0 44.9

11 COUNTRIES 73 I I I 0.86 1.00 53.0 16.3

Source ECA/FAG Commodity 3alance Sheetse

~ :.;ainly came L ;.;e:it (excludine; or ra Ls ) and e;arne m.eat ,

Table IV-23: Meat and Live Animals (Oel-Ol) - Total and SUb-regional Imports ( '000 metric tons)

Importing country Origin of import

1964-66

1970 1975

1980

Mauritius World 4

5

^{6 8}

If.adagasc81'' 1 4

5

⁷

Uganda World 4 13 20 24

Kenya .3

9 9

¹⁰

Tanzania 3 10 13

Zambia World 8 20 36

59

Swaziland, BotsW'sna 2 10

15 18

Tanzania 1

9

²⁰

40

Total ~orld 16 38

62

91

East Africa 7 35 59

88

Rest of world 9 3 3 3

Table IV-24: Meat and Live Animals (001-01) - Total and SUb-regional Exports ( '000 metric tons)

Exporting country Direction of exports 1964-66 1970 1975 1980

Burundi World 1 2 2 3

Eth:.:>pia World 6 12 43

99

Kenya tlor1d 11 9 9 ¹⁰

Ugand.a 3 9 9 10

Maci.c~gascar world 8 11 22 33

Y.auri tius 1 4 5 7

Rwanda World 2 .3 3

3

Somalia World 3C 35 39 41

Tanzania World 12 25 43 67

Uganda

.3

^{10 13}

Zambia 1 9 20

40

SW8:~iland, Botswana Aorld

Zambia 2 10

15 18

TOTJ~L World

!I 70 97

¹⁶¹ 254

Sub-region

7 35 59 88

Rest o~ world 63

62

102 166

!I

Botswana and Swaziland not included.

~~i. Table IV-23 indioates a tremendous increase in sub-regional meat imports over the 1970-1980 period. The share of the sub-region in total imports in 1980 is ex-pected to reach Some 91 per cent and only a limited quantity of meat preparations is assumed to be imported from outside the sub-region.

292. Meat exports, however, will be directed mostly overseas. The demand prospects in European and other markets are promising and the East African countries are not expected to absorb more than 91,000 tons of the total 1980 surplus of 262,000 tons.

Projected exports are shown in Table IV-24. Even though sub-regional exports of meat are increaeing rapidly in absolute terms, their sbare in total meat exports is assumed to increase only in 1970 over 1964-66. In 1915 compared to 1970 the sub-regional share is assumed to remain constant and the share in 1980 over 1975 is assumed to decline slightly,

In

^Chapter

V

it vill be shown, however, that the East African countries should intensify their efforts in oontrolling various diseases, in improving the

quality of meat etc. in order to meet the requirements of potential overseas importers.

Milk

293.

Milk is one of the few agricultural commodities estimated in the ECA/FAO DD2 to be in deficit during the decade, The deficit is calculated to increase from 46,000 metric tons in 1910 to 60,000 tons in 1975 and 120,000 tons in 1980. The expected trade pattern for milk is presented in Table IV-26.

294.

Dairy products are a promising commodity for sub-regional trade in East Africa, In 1980 all East African countries except Burundi, Kenya and Rwanda will have a

considerable deficit in dairy products. Imports are expeoted to develop along the lines indicated in Table IV-26.

295.

The data in Table IV-25 indicate that it will not be possible to fully meet the demand for milk, butter, cheese and other dairy products from within the

sub-region. This is in spite of the fact that the cattle/population ratio is comparatively high in most East African countries and that meat production is expeoted to exceed domestic demand,

Table IV-25: Dairy Products (in fluid milk equivalent) (02) - Sub-regional Imnorts

(tooo

metric tons)

Importing country Source of imports 1970 1915

1980

Ethiopia World 40

40 60

Somalia. 20

Madagascar World 30 47 40

Malawi World 12

19

²²

Mauritius World 34 40

47

Tanzania World

46 68

133

Kenya 40

50 50

Uganda World 31

28 44

Kenya. 25

25

25

Zambia World 40

69 98

Kenya 19 25

12

TOTAL ·"'or1d 233 311

444

East Africa 84 100 107

Rest ot world

149

²¹¹ .337

(iii) Fish and fish products

296.

With the projected increases in demand, many of the countries of the region at present either self-sufficient or even not exporters of fish are likely to become substantial importers. The recent rapid grofttb in Uganda, for example, is unlikely to be sustained throughout the seventies, even allowing for the introduction of trawling' on Lake Victoria and further increases in production from Lake Kyoga.

297.

Similarly, the high target growth rates of

8.9

per cent per annum set in the Tanzanian

1969-74

Development Plan are unlikely to be 5ttained in view of the

increasing pressure on the resources, imposed not only by Tanzania, but ~lso by other countries exploiting the international inland water bodies of ~ast Africa. The

encouraging and realistic ?rogrsrome of research and training described in the Develop-ment Plan is likely to be needed to maintain the much more modest gro~th rates

envisaged in this study.

298.

In spite of substantial resources in her own inland waters, Zambia is also a significant fish importer - mainly from Tanzania. If these inland 4sters were fully exploited, Zambia could probably in the long r~n satisfy her own domestic demand, out the lack of infrastructure and the slow gro~th in recent years suggest that the full potential may not be reached witnin the next decade.

299.

Two potential gro~th points for East African fisheries are Lake Rudolf and the waters off the coast of Somalia. The Kenyan

1970-74

Development Plan contains

proposals for the improvement of communications between Lake Rudolf and the main centres of population, the lack of which has hitherto put a orake on development of this fishery. The serious development of the potential of Lake Rudolf, together with increased catches from Lakes Victoria, Braingo and other inland water bodies, co~ld

probably make Kenya a small net exporter of fish by 1980.

)00. No reliable assessment of the potential of the ~aters off the coast of Somalia bas been madet although an FAO!UNTIP project is currently carrying out such assessments.

The area is, however, believed to be extremely rich but development has been hampered by the seasonal nature of the fisheries, a lack of kno41edge of their migrations and the absence of infrastructure. In view of the very limited domestic market any develop-ment of this resource will have to be based on ex?orts and olose attention will,

therefore, need to be paid to quality control. If the produots are to be sold in other East African countries, there may well be difficulties to be overcome in market-ing unfamiliar species. All this suggests that in spite of a high potential there is unlikely to be any spectacular expansion of the Somali fishing industry by 1980.

301. Fish and fish products is a co~~odity group in respect of ~hich a deficit in the sub-region might be expected. De~and would grow from

339

thousand tons in

1964-66

to some

134

thousand tons in 1980. This vary sharp increase in demand would call for imports from outside of tte sub-region, even if in wor~ing out the relevant balances) provision were made for a considerable exnansion of local production.

J02. The production increase over the decade

197C-80

is envisaged to be wit~in the

ran~e of

250-350

thousand tons. But such an increase would hardly be feasible unless fishery resources are really carefully developed and exploited ~ithin the frame~orkof a rational management regime. To this end proposals are under oonsiieration for the

establishment of an Inland Fishery Body for Africa, which ~ould include inter alia in its terms of reference the following activities:

(a) to promote, co-ordinate and assist national and regional fishery and limnological surveys and programmes of research and development leading to the rational utilization of inland fishery resources;

(b) to assist Member Covernments in establi~hingthe scientific basis for regulatory and other measures for the conservation and improvement of inland fishery resources, to formulate such measures through subsidiary bodies as required and to make appropriate recommendations for the adoption and implementation of these measures;

(0) to promote and assist activities concerned with the processing, preservation and marketing of fish and fish produots;

(d) to encourage education and training through the establishment or improvement of national and regional institutions and by the promotion

and the organisation of symposia, seminars, study tours and training centres;

(e) to assist in the collection, interchange, dissemination and analysis of statistical, biological and environmental data and other inland fishery information.

303.

Preliminary work for the establishment of this body has reached an advanced stage and it is proposed to hold an Ad Hoc Consultation on the Proposed Establishment of an Inland Fishery Body for Africa in the first half of

1971.

All African ~ember

Countries have been invited to attend.

304. For marine fisheries there is already in existence a parallel body in the Indian Ocean Fishery Commission. The Commission's area of competence is, as its name implies, the Indian Ocean and adjacent seas, but excluding the Antarctic. Its terms of

reference are:

(a) to promote, assist and co-ordinate national programmes over the entire field of fishery development and conservation;

(b) to promote research and development activities in the area through international sources, and in particular international aid

programmes;

(c) to examine management problems with particular reference, because of the need to take urgent acti~n, to those relating to the

management of offshore resources.

J05.

?isn and risn p.ro au cts su b-ere gione I tr-ade could increase e s ae ntL-llJ ilurin::; the next ~ecade. Al!houou only ~ome 3,000 tons ~cre traded within :he sub-re5ion in

1964,

trade in fi;.;n coul a r-ea cn as mucn as sorae 16,OG() tons b;l 1950. This woul d requi re , of co~rse, inten~ificatiQnof policies ai~ed a~ fish ~ro~~c~ion ~romo:ion in ~ll

countries endo~ed ~ith s~itable natural cQh~i:ionso So~~li~, if 3~cn policies we~

em ba rke d upon, [;", i;.ht oe in a po si tion to export s orne 9,000 ton s of ~'i,;jn i:-;, 1975 arid twice tha: ~~~nti:y in 1930. ~it~ trie excep:lon af ~thio~in ~n~ ~~l~~i, Somulia ~nd Kenya , all o the r Z:~st Alrlcan countrie s az-e li~el.J" ^to ce ne^t i:n~o.:'ters of ':'i:::;h. Some of t.aem, for exan p.Ie :·.u.:lritiu s , have con.side r-aoLe pote nti a I for an .i.nc re a se in r'i.:iih pro o u cti.on and their inpo rt re cuire s.cnts '-"ill J.e~er.d to a Great e x te nt u por, tce ::-.ea-sure a ad op te d ^aj' :':~€,1:' re s peCtive 60vernn.en^ts ",;i

to.

r-e62.rd :0 the pron.otion .:H' fi sh pro ..^{d .i}cti on , S~b-('eoiona.l trade in fish _j;::J.~' .ie vc Lo p 2.1 on.; the lines zndi ca ce d in '!'able 1'/-26.

Table IV-26: Fish and Fish Productions (fresh fish equivalent - 03) Sub-regional Trade ('000 metric tons)

Exporting Direction

Dans le document Intra-sub-regional cooperation and trade in East Africa in the field of agriculture (Page 161-171)