Intra-sub-regional cooperation and trade in East Africa in the field of agriculture

INTRA-SUB-REGIONAL CO-OPERATION AND TRADE IN EAST AFRICA IN THE FIELD OF AGRICULTURE

TABLE OF COXT"B}JTS

PHASE I

INTROJJ eTION

A. Scope of the study

B. Sources and methodology

1 3

A. Position of a~riculture in East African economy (i) Ecological cOfiditions and cornplementarities (ii) Share of ubriculture in bross domestic product

and population

(iii) Gap betw€en rural an~ urban incomes

(iv) Oene r-ati on of' employment as an important de ve Lo pme nt objective

(v) Share of u(:,rieulture in fQrei~}':; trade

CHAPT~R I General Characteristics of the Economy and Abricu.ltilre

of Ea st Afri ca

5

5 5 14

20 24 E. Main cha ru c te ri st i ce of a.gri cuLture in East Africa

(i) The sh a re of crops, livestock, fishery and forestry in g r-oe s agri cui tural output and agri cu l tural trade (ii) Crop _pro~uction

- Cereals M.aize

Nillet and sorghum Rice

Ba r Ley Wheat SUGar Pulse s

Beverace crops Coffee Tea

Indus:rial crops Cotton lint SiSiil or agave Tobacco

Oilseeds Soyabeans Groundnuts Cottonseed Linseed 5e same seed Sunflower seed Casto r seed

Coconuts and copra

28 28 30

- Root crops

Sweet potatoes and yams Cassava (Manioc)

(iii) Animal production (iv) Forestry

( v) Fishery ANNEX I

37 43 46 50

(i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v) CHAPTER II

A.

Present Patterns of Sub-regional Trade in the Field of Abriculture in East Africa

The role and structure of present intra-sub-ret;,ional trade in agricultural commodities

General trade cnar-c ct.c ra et.acs of the sub-region General trade patterns for particular countries Trade in East Africa compared wi th trade in the other African sub-regions

Total trade within East Africa

A6r i cu l t u r a l trade Within East Africa

56 56 56 58 62 66

69

(i) (ii) (iii) (iv) B.

ANNEX II

Main factors impeding intra-sub-re5ional trade in a6ricultural commodities

Cos t ana price leveIs

rran~port and storage Tariff barrie rs Non tariff barriers

78

78

79

82 79

83

CHAPTER III Fore cas^t of Produ ction, Demand and Exch an ge of Selected Commodi tie s with Respect to

Sub-re6ional Trade in East Africa

87

A.

B.

F~recast of aLriculture's contribution to Gnp, of gross abricuLtural outp.: t, its structure and

imp~ct on per capita food consumption Assumptions ana methodology

Main characteristics of the foreseen E;rowth of a~ricultur8 compared to other sectors of the economy

Fore seen structural change s in gross agricultural output and in per capita calorie and animal pro- tein intake

Over'al I per;.;; pee cti vc of total and sub-re giona1 trade in selected agricultural commodities

(i) Surpluses and deficits for a5ricultural sectors and principal agricultural commodities for the

yea r s 1970,

1975

and 1980

(ii) Prospects for sub-regional trade in 1970-1980 period

- Total volume of sub-retiional trade - Commodity shares of sub-regional trade - Countr~ shares in sub-regional trade - Total and sub-regional trade with respect

to sele eted agri cultural •commodi tie s

87 87 93 95

101

101 103

(iii) Possibilities for the development of agricultural

trade between Eaat Africa and other sub-regions 113 C. Factors which may facilitate promotion of sub-regional trade

in agricultural commodities 116,

ANNEX III CHAPTER IV

A.

Commodity Notes on Perspective Total and Sub-regional Trade

Commodity notes on prospective trade balances and intra- sub-regional trade flows

Crop production - Cereals

Wheat Rice - Potatoes

- Pulses and lentils - Sugar

- Frui ts and vegetables - Cotton

- Vegetable oils - Coffee

- Tea - Tobacco

Livestock products - Meat

- Milk

Fish and fish products

Forestry and related industries

118

134 134 134

150 160 162 165 B.

ANNEX IV

Proposals for examination of technical and economic feasibility of the foreseen commodity flows

(i) Refinement of commodity balances and sub-regional trade fore casts

(ii) Prices, weie,hts, measures and standards (iii) Tran3port and stora~ facilities and costs

(iv) Tariff and other barriers concerning intra-re~ional trade in agricultural commodities in East Africa (v ) The role of countries in promoting co'-ope ratdon in

overall and agricultural trade

169 169 169 172 17.3 174 178 CHAPTER V Possibilities for Co-operation in Agricultural

Trainin6, Research and Other Fields Related to

Agricul ture 181

A. Agricultural education and training (i) Introduction

(ii) Examples of present co-operation in the field of agricultural training and eduoation

- Animal health and animal produotion - Wildlife mana~ment

- Fisheries - Forestry

181 181 185

BD Possibilities for co-operation in agricultural research 188 (i) _M~in principles for the development of co-operation

in agricultural research 188

(ii) Examples and some proposals for strengthening of research co-operation in the ::t'ield of crop pro- duction, animal health, animal nutrition and

forestry 193

- Crop production

- Animal health and nutrition Animal health

nutrition - Forestry

c.

The need for cc-coper-atd on in animal disease control 199 D. Possibilities for co-operation in game ranching and

wildlife mana~e~ent 201

E. Some gpecific fields for co-operation in the field of

fisheries 203

(i)

Processinb and marketing 203

- Elimination of wastage

- Expansion of the market and development of new produ cts

(ii) ExchanGe of information and st~tistical data 204 (iii) Further exploitation and mana6~ment of the inl~d

waters 204

F. Desert locust and weaver bi r d control 206

G. A~ricultur~l planning, data collection and analysis 207 H. Other posgibilities for co-operation in the field

of ag-ricu.lture in East Afri ca 209

(i) Production and distribution of fertilizers 209

(ii) A~ro-~lliedindustries 210

(iii) Other possibilities for co-operation 210

CHAPTER VI Conclusions and Re comn.enu ati.on a 211 A. Generul characteristics of East African agriculture

and its position in national economics

(i)

The impact of ecolo5Y and climate

(ii) Position of ~griculture in East African economy (ii~) Main structure of a6ricultural proQuction

(iv) A~ricultural productivity

B. Present patterns of intra-sub-regional trade in a₅r i cu l t u r a l commodities

(i)

Importance and structure of abricultural intra-

sub-re~ional trade in East Africa

(ii) Main factors impeding intra-sub-re6ional trade in agrlcultural commodities

211 211 212 213

214 214 214 215

Pru~~cts of promo:in~ in~rQ-Ju~-~ebion~l abric~l~~ral :r~de

in E8.Gt Afri ca

c.

(iv) (v)

Tot<;.l voLun.e of int:'Ci-su:>-:'E:i:,i8nal t rade

CO::dI:odi ties for ;·:hicr. a. der ic;^t a s f'o re caet in the scope of :110 su'b-rec;icn in 1980

'I'r,e mas:' iI:'Jport3.Ilt ae:;ri eul tur[;.l ccmmcda tie s .in futu r-e

in:.ra-::.;ub-rcgio~lal trade an d c.ain con.modi ty f10-";8

Examinati.on of technic.::.l and economic feasibility of the foreseen cODmo~ity flows

Po s si bi Lzt i.es ::'~r the de ve Lo pce nt of agracu Lt u ra L trade be tve e n Ea.st Africa an d other sub-ree:;ions

217 217

218 222 228 230

D. Possi bi 1i tie s for co-ope r a ti on in <.I.61'i cu I tu.ral tru.ininc;,

re se ar ch and ⁰thc r fie Ids re la te:i to a6rieu 1ture 231 APPErJIX I Intra-sub-ree;ion:-.;.l Trade l\latrices for ~967 with

Eecpe ct to Selected .hbricultur<.:o.l Cor.modi tie s APFE1;::>IX I I : vJor~ir~6 Notes on EGA/FAD Corns.od.it:{ Balances APfE.1:DIX III: Eetima tec ProcWction, Consumption and. Trade in

1965*, 1970,

1975 and 1980 for Principal Agri- cultural Products

APPEKDIX IV Estim~ted Area, Yield ~nd Prod~ction for Princi- pal Crops for 1965*, 1970, 197) and 1960

235 258

311

.348

ABBREVIATIONS, SYMBOLS AND UNITS

1965* ....•.... · ...•....•••.. · .. ···.

...

.~o

o

$

m)(r) .

m3(s) •...•...•.••••...•.

GDP PCE EAC

Average of the three ye&.rs 1964, 1965, 1966 Nil or less than naIf the final unit shown Not available

Not applicable

United States dollar rl.etri c ton

Cubic metre round~ood Cu oi c me tre sawnwood

Gross Domestic Product

Private Consumption Expenditure East African Community

mIn

DD2

...

Million

Second Development Decad.

CDPPP ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• United Nations Centre for Development Planning, Projections and Policies When no source is ue n t a one d in the t a oIe s , d at.a are estimates of ECA/Fi1.0 Ac;riculture Division"

1. Joth the l~inth Session of the ECA and the Fifth FAD Regional Conference

supported the s~g~estio~ that st~dies sho~ld be undertaken to determine the possibili- ties o f promoting intru.-African trade, ar.d the extent to ~lhich it mii:::::t oe advisable to i~plement policies of diversification or specialization as far as the prodLction of aG:;,,~:~cl;.lta.ra I comr.cdi.ties and the necessary agnacu Lt.u.r.aL inputs are concerned. It vas ,::"Q'roc3.ted that the studies to be undertaken ^{sho i.Ld} attempt to examine the

special problems of agricultural production and trade or. the spot, aim at assisting

ccuntr-ae s in 'Workir:g Out r.a ticnaI or rm..<1ti-national short and medium-cte rm agricultural deve Lcpment strategies and at eventi.aLl.y f'ormu La.ti r.g' effective policies and action

prObT~QmeS on the basis of well-founded assessment of the 6iven nat~ral and eco~oQic

condi t:i.ons in various coun t.r-i.es ,

2. 'l'hese studd e s have been carried out jointly ^by FliO and the ECOlJOmic Cornnris.si on for J.~f:r·ica under Phase I project number

39,

"Intra-retSional Co-operation and Trade in the Field of AgricLltc r-e" of the prOb'ramIiJe of work of the ECA/FIAO Joint At;ricul ture Dav.i aion for

1969/71

projected to

1973.

It Was recognized that the bi.Lk of the l'iork on thi:J project should be carried out directly in the countries cor.cerned by teams of specialists in close co-operation with the governments. It was realized, however, that tae field investigations and programme and project formulation based thereon

should be preceded by Phase I preliminary ecar-omic intelliGence studies. These studies under Ph as e I should serve for the identification of areas of concern, priori ties of needs '"i thin these areas, and suggesting the "Terms of Reference" or the subsequent field i~vestigations. It was also considered esse~tial that the outcome of these studi es under Phase I, particularly the "outLi.ne " for the f'oLlov-eup , should be dis-

c~ssed with the goverr~ents co~cerned.

3.

In assigning the project, a three phase approach Was adopted:

(a) The first phase involves preliminary economic intelligence studies of short-, medi~l- aLd long-terDl domestic and external ffiarket demands for selected

cour.o d.ities, and an exam.i.na ti on of coun'tr-y and sub-regional production, consumption and tr~de patterns to ascertain the extent to which production meets internal and

extern0:.1 demand s for each pz-oduct , and of the impact of trade in the selected

comDodities between the countries of the sub-region_t between various sub-regions and

betwe ec Africa and the other reb'ions on the expenditure and earnings of foreign

exchange at national and ~ub-regional levels. These studies sho~ld enable identi£ica- tion of areas of concern, and priorities of r.eeds within these areas. Phase I was to be ·.;.ndertaken for all sub-ret:ions by staff members of the EC;jFAO Joint Agriculture Dr v.ieion in collaborati on wi th var-icus FAD Divisions.

~b) The second phase shoLla concentrate on careful examination of the pattern

of current agric~lt~ral practice_t sho~ld compare ttis with development possibilities ar.d re:omcend measures for initiating improvements and new developments, bearing in mind t.ae iden:ified areas for promotion of sub-regional co-operation and trade. The

second phase will involve both extensive and intensive field Lnvesti ga t.i.ons by teams of exp~rts deployed from various ECA Divisio~s, F~O Headquarters, FAD Regional Offices ih Afr:ca and elsewhere, other specialized and oper-ating aeencies_t bilateral sources ard universitie£. In certain particular cases it may be necessary to recruit on a

t€mpor~ry basis. The proposed teams of experts ma~y include specialists in the fields of cr-op prouuction, hcrticul ture and plant protection; animal heal th and prociuction;

land c.;,.::;d water developmcr.t; agricL.ltl.ra.l ellLineering and agric1..<ltlAral indt.:.stries;

r~ral L~stitutions (organization of agricultural services, land reform, credit ar.d

o-eoper-e.ti·.res); abTic-ultur~.l eco r ouics , marketin

e:

^{end statisti ce ; nutriti}on ; education and tra~nin£~ T:n~ co~poGi~ionof the team of expertn to undertake Phase II rna;{ differ from sLo-reiS10 r] "to suo-reglor: and f'r-om COL)!troy to cour try and aho i.Ld fit into the activi',ies 1)1'0)osed to be undertaken acc or-di ng to Phase I indications. Thust the

~~tailed cor.~e~~^t of t.be aeccnd phase will de perid or. the ot.tcoms of the p:;:evicJt,s i>nase • ..ne coo.patab.iLatoY of the outcome of Phase I t'1ith the thinkir:

c

^{of natLone I services will}

then b~ ~Gcertair.ed. Conflation of views will Give greater precision to the theoreti- cal vo rk cf Phase 1. This will be car-ri e d out in a series of d'is c t.a si on s l"i t.h the 6ov~rH~ents ~t the policy l~vel to ascertain what wodificatior. ar..d rieepeninl;.' of the

anarysi s eacri c.n.n try may find nece s sar-y ar.d 'tvhat ft:rther wor-k may reed to be done to attain ful~y the objeo~ivesoutlined above.

(0) The taird ohase will exaci~e the feasibility of allocatinG and reallocating

reso~rces to ~ake the best use of the comp~rative advantages of different co~ntries

and s1.ib-regior,s, and to encourage the maxirm.m utilization of ur.der-used and uriused

reso~rces a~d the pronotion of sub-rebio~~l co-operatior. ar.d tr~de. This sho~ld

enable the formul~tior. of policies and action programmes to improve agricLlt~ral pro- ductivity, ar.d of development projects, aimed, in total, at enabling productio~ to keep pace with _{gronio b} dem~r-d for the most important staple food commodities and for industri21 r~w ~ateri~ls.

4.

In accordar.ce ~ith the resol~tio~ l42(VII) of the Econorroic Commission for Africa a s~b-rebio~~l appro~ch W3S" adopted. The co~tinent was accordingly divided into fo~r sub-regio~~l gro~psl! The pres21t E~st Africa Phase I st~dy covers the folloning co~ntries: Botsjfr:a ,Burundi ,bthiopia, Kenya, Lesotho, Madagascar,

Mal2.~'li, AClLl.ritiL.5, FMauia ,So!::talia, S",oIazilar..d, 'I'anz aru a , Uganda and Zambia. Al though this sub-re~io~~l co~r~Lry coverati8 has eeen adopted it was realized from the outset that t~ere mi~ht be sit~~tions where econoffiic ties or trade reldtions between countries in different sUb-regions ~ight be stronGEr. ~fherever possible, considering time and data limita tions, an attempt "/ias riade to exami.ne present and prospec ti ve fut ure

r-eLatio ns ^0:: East African ^COLintries 'tTith their neiu"hbours, r-egar-dLes e of the s~b-,regions

to ~hich they belor..c. This is in a 6r e eme n t with the views of the Sixth FAO Conference for Afrlca held in Al~iers Se~tEnoer-Cctober

1970.

The Co~ference e~phasized that the Uni. ted Nat i o ns ^SL.o-reeiorJ3.1 se t-a.p sho ul.d not be considered as "water-tiLht^{f' ,} and that due attention sho~ld be paid to the exploration of possibilities for trade

between various sub-re~ion3 in Africa.

5.

The sub-re~io~al coverage o~tli~ed above docs not mean that all countries

within the Guo-reGio,. are beinG treated in ~he ~amc depth. Phase I could r.ot pos~ibly

deal in 8~fficier.t de9~h ~ith pre3er.t ~r.~ prospective ~~ric~ltLral trade flows in countries for ~hich data or. ~hc direction of trade were lacking. Such countries have, in so~e c~ses, oee~ eLcl~ded froD tr~ue ~atric8s. In other ca8es, or.ly such ir.forma- tion as ~as bathered or. their eAports ~~d imports from trade stati~tics of their neightours was used. Ho~ever, these co~ntries will be dealt Wlth in fuller cepth at a later sta~e in sLbseq~ent ph~se8 of the project.

6. As t'a.r aa t?-~e coru.iodi 1..y cov e r a.je of the ctudy is cor.ce r'r-ed , i t ahot.Ld be stressed th a^t ar; atter.pt nac ceer; r:;.J.c.e to tr c at in "corariodi ty baLmce s " '1.11 at:',;ric~ltl.ral

CO" I""_J~lL'.0'';1"_'-l 't"~c-,,,,v..J..~"':" 1">""1• .:. 0 - · ( ... ·/~...:;£!-u

.._...

('I"Jt....-,.I.~Y',.. ...•.I..J....,;r '~O'C(...., ...& ! ..rr.cd~~.... l"...!..l.y, " ~,~l,..<lU-^{' "} r-c:-L;J...,"or: l"r"'or-"""",,,,,~--"I _~,^.. Io...4oto.J i-'.--e".Jl...l •.:....J.~ita^{' - - r,}'l."'''11\I~ ~

ab.i LitJ:::,.llo~;ed.. .:Q: 3.11 SO[:":I)(~l:::-2,::; <:;rc'?t.ed, n.O":f(~V0:.', '"n11 :~~>~UI:1e If];Jort_Lr.e:e In suc-rC',~':'o~._".l t.r-aci c , i>:n::Q I ~~:tr:;:19~~' to "':'~:';CGr-:'.·~:"r. :cl.t-.l.~i·;ely '..That comr.oci ::.1..';3 are

pre~er.tl..J' 01' likt;lJ ^:'0 ~~ i.~, :,,:-_,,:, f'i.tur e , .Ji~;ni;:ic'lnt in tLis 1'~"';.9CCt, ar.c C~-. ·.jh.:i.t

1:..J1 ;' :";"(\J,; t....l Lnu.i.- ...i c:~.lt. . . . .ivn1.., '~orl'"I, ' J P'lar.:.- .. .:. (r"'C))'."""- f'O--""(_ ~L,. . . . ', ....,J or.l.v1_ V ~A·.JJ.:'"'hl"rJ~"1" _ , v:.. .... " ....~..\..,.:..l.JI._' --',1"1"-;~'_... '-"'..J..,

1,ICldQ.~;:i8c:}.r, (~·.l..:',z.:l.:.i,J., L...;::.!:.\l:l .ir.u {:;,_d,~[ji3..

U

111!'ut_;:..;.i :~:.i.c:. Lt,~iJ.:.:J.:':;' :'.e"-:,c cov e r-ec .iLco .in l<~:':J.~C 1 cf i.)1.'0Je ct .LO.

39

r'or- C. hfrica

U '}'::.(:

cO;~I:;,C")(..:.i!,j· t";J.l'.i.Y;Ci;;S cot.Ld r.ot Dc ~~;t(lol.i:;."~eQ in a GjstQIIEtti;; 'flay uecau s e of Lack C)~' datil for Le cc t no , .s'ic:zi":':..J.c.. and .i.:ots..ran a ..

sc~le. Tow~rd the end, it analyses present prodLction and prospects of production increases, comp~res estimated prod~ctionwith projected demand for ~edi~m and longer-term horizons ~nd thereby determines likely deficits or surpluses of various commodities at the respective time horizone at country ~nd sub-regional levels.

This preli:ninary analysis ,'fill ghre or:ly imlications of "hypotheti ca.L" possibili ties of sub-regional trade. Such ir:dications must be further exani ned , taking into

account prices of p~rticular commodities in particular countries, tra~sport costs, customs, duti~s and s~ch ot~er factors as will, in the final analysis, determine the feasibility of two or more co~ntries enGaging in sub-regional trade in a particular commodity.

7. For some cOr.lmodities, the Phase I desk analysis of surpluses and deficits has already given some clues on stich feasibilities. For a number of other commodities an examination of the possibilities in Phase II field investigations will be essentiaL However, in either case, preliminary results suggest that a Whole chain of economic and teehnical questior.s must be sorted out before conclusions and recommendations regarding sub-regional trade c~n be drawn. Phase II investigations should give these prelim:.nary resul ts more precision.

8.

While focusing pri~ary attention on commodities and problems relating to promot:.on of sub-regional trade, studies under project No. 39 also exam.ine the possi^bxL'ities of ^co-eopez-ation in the fields of research, training, disease control, export promotion, conservation of national resources, etc. These possibilities have been covered in the study in response to what East African countries themselves have r-eques t.ed at var-Lous meet.ings , Investigations of various other fields of

co-ope:~ationbetween African c0untries in addition to agricultural trade were also requested by the recent Sixth FAO Conference for Africa.

9.

The original work on the possibilities for co-operation in East Africa was done i:'i 1968 and 1969 by an East African team set up jointly by the ECA and the

Cent~e for Development Planning, Projections and Policies (CDPPP), UN New York. This Team prepared a first draft of a study on possibilities for sub-regional co-operation

ir., East Africa ar.d covered all economic sectors such as processing i~dustries, energy trar.sp,)rt services, trades and also agricult~re. T~e agricultural chapter in the East African 'I'eam Report served as a nucleus for the Phase I study of project 1:0. 39.

The pr-ese nt study, however, Goes into far more detail than the CDPPP Team Report, ar.d ha.s been carried out from mid-l969 to the end of 1970.

B. Sources and ;.:ethodology

lO~ ~he study is based on statistic~l data for the years 1964/1966 prepared in close coLl.abor-a.ti on ^'with the specialized Di.vi si ons of FAO, taking into account the major agricultural development policy guideliLes laid down in the IWP. The projections of potential demand prepared by FAO are based on a m~cro-economic model establi.shed jointly by the Un.i, ted Nat.Lons Centre of Planning, Projections and

Pclici~s (CDPPP), ECA and FAG for the Second Development Decade. The estimations of proluction and denand of the base period (1964-1966) and the production targets

propos~d for the years 1970,

1975

and 1980 were obtained from vario~s so~rces, Lr.c Lud~ ~g:

n3tio~~l developmer.t plans and various statistical reports on production, trade and consumption;

food s~rveys held in the various countries;

data assembled by FAO from member governmehts;

various stLdies and reports on consumption, agricultural and industrial production made by missions or individual experts from ?AO ar.d other national and internatio~al org~nizatio~s.

11. The demand projections were established mainly b';l takir1e into account

elasticity in food demand in relatior. to foreseeable income and also the requirements of improved n~trition. The study deals with poter.tia1 demand at constant prices, ActL.al cor:sumption, however, may differ froID projected demQ.nd since it may be

influenced by the possibilities of supply from domestic, and sub-rebior.al and other

prod~ction, by i~come and price levels, by changes of cor.sump~ionhabits and other factors. 'I'he impa.ct of SO!I.e of these factors at least for short and medi um terms could be evaluated under Phase II.

12. The first s e c^tior; of Chapter I of this report corrt.a.ir.s general remarks on the

sub-re~ior., its ecoloLY a~d the importance of a5TicultLre in its economy. The second section of Chapter I analyses briefly the structure of agricultural production, the role and main features of partic~lar agricult~ralsectors, i.e. crop prod~ction,

animal productio~, fo=estry and fisheries. Chapter II disc~sses briefly the present s^i,tuation of intra-regio~.3.ltrade in ge r.er aL, going in details regarding selected

agric~lt~ral COlliltodities, and its second part attempts to highlight the main factors Ln f'Luenc i.ng the development of sub-reGior:al trade in ab-:ricult^i.ral cornmodi ties.

Chapter III is a synthesis of the forecasts of production, demand and trade over the next decade, explaining also the assumptions on which theestimates of future

development are based. This chapter also co~pares both qua~titative and qualitative changes in s~b-reGional agric~l~~ral trade assumed to take place over the 196)-1980 period. Chapter IV discusses pr-oducti on , d emand , export av aaLabi Ii ties and import

requireme~ts by particular commodities. ~erever appropriate, an attempt is made to forecast s1..<b-reGiofln.l trade and identify its likely flowso Chapters II, III and IV are s~pported by statistical appendices. Appendix I contains trade matrices

regarding selected agri cu Itur,...~l comn.odi ties for 1967. Appendix II contains individual country data de a lir~(S wi.th the methodology used in making production e stima^te a and With adjustments in projected demand in cases where such adjustments were considered necessary. Appendix III contains t~e commodity-by-com~odityforecasts for production and de~and, along uitn the implied import and/or export balances for 1970,

1975

3.nd 1980. ~he details used in making prod1..<ction estimates, e.£. area and yield for various crops, are presented in Appendix IV. Individual commodity figures are given for all countries for which data were available. The benchmarks used in Apper.dix IV are the sar.e as those uae d in Appendix II I, i. e. 1970, 1975 and 1980. Cha.pter V examines the possibilities of co-operation in ::igronomic research, aGricultural

education and otner fields. Chapter VI contains concl~sions and tentative recommen- dations. 'I'he report ar:a. its recor..J..e nd ati or.s are envisaged to be di s c ue s e d "With the governments cor.c e rned before Phase II based thereon is launched.

13. It is therefore foreseen that ECl~ and F'AO r-epr-es e nta.tivea will visi t a l l

co~ntries i!ivolved. It is hoped that conflation of views will give greater precision to the Phase I r-ecounr.endat.Lons and lllake the Phase II field work more efficient and beneficial to the countries themselves~

CHAPTER I

GENERAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE ECONOI.cr

~JD AGRICULTURE OF EhST AFRICA A. Position o~ 86riculture in East African economy (i) Ecological conditions and complementarity

14.

East Africa as defined by ECA/FAO is composed of non-contiguous countries covering a vast area stretching from abcut 20 degrees south latitude to abo~t

18

degrees north latitude and from

18

degrees to about

58

degrees east longitude.

This involves distances of about 3,500 miles north to south and about 2,000 miles east to west.

15.

'within the confines of the region, climatological and weather condi tiona largely determine a series of ecological systems which vary from desert, with extremely low precipitation, to evergreen equatorial forest with extremely hiGh annual rainfall.

The interaction of climate and soils largely determines the pattern of land-use. The intensity and distribution pattern of rainfall is a dominant factor. Elevation also has an important effect on agricultural ecology. The range of crops, forest species, grass and legume species which are available to agriculture is great. In each

individual country, the range of crops which may be grown and thellype of animal production are determined largely by local ecological conditions. The following princir:ll geographical areas in East Africa. ma.vbe disti~guishedfrom the poi~t of view of" suitability for agricult~r~l purposes:

Easterr Equatorial Desert ^and Sub-desert: ^A large part of Somalia, the hinterland of Ethiopia, and the northern region of Kenya are all covered by deserts and 5ub- deserts. The zone is arid and the qhality of the soil is poor. It is suitable mainly ~or livestock grazing.

Easterr Egu~torial Savanna: The equatorial savanna zone extends from Ethiopia through Kenya to the heart of 'I'anzani a, Rainfall is ncder ate but diminishes as one moves northwards. AlthOugh the quality of the soil is only slightly better than ir the desert zone, it is nevertheless suitable ~or the growing of millet and sorghum, and is also ~~ed for livestock grazing.

Easterr Coastal Zone: The Eastern Coastal Zone consi sts of the unor-o ken chai.n of a narrow coastal strip stretching southwards from the lower region of So~alia all the way dow n to Mozambique. iiith the exception of the Somalia se gmerrt , abundant rainfall prevails throughout. The major crops found in this zone are cassava, rice, cashews, coconLts, ban~nas and sisal.

Lake Victoria Region: Thill constitutes the most fertile a~d most he~vily populated sectior of East Africa. The soil is basically of the alluvial type which is hiChly product:ve. The annual rainfall is abundant. ~he st~ple crops consist of ~aize,

ca.ss av a , plantains, pulses and vegetables. The major cash crops include robusta coffee, cotton and tea. Livestock does ~ot thrive well in the re~ion ~ecause of the preser.ce of the tsetse.

3ast Africa Te~n, Co-oper~tion in AgricLlture in Eastern Africa, Addis Ababa, l:;thiopis., 19 ;.;."lY 1969.

?erdinar.d Staces, Eco:-;omic SLrvey of East ,\.frican AGricul ture, EC}~, Addis Ababa, May

1968.

Eastern and Central Plateau: Tile largest segment of 'i'anaam a and virtLally 2.11

0:-

the land occupied by Zambia, Kalawi, Rhodesia and }';ozar.,biqL€ cor.pr-i se the Eastern and Central Plateau. Like the Lake Victoria region, the soil is of the fertile s.Ll.uvi e.I type. It is 81;_itable for the grm'ling of cott.cn , tobacco, rnai z e , mi 11et and. sorghum. Al t hough the zone is infested wit.h tsetse, S01:le livestock and dairy production is carried on.

East Africar- Hiehlands: The East African HiGhland is Widely dispersed in Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda and. Et.;,rundi. The climate is cool, the soil is fertile, and the annual precipitation is high. The basic food crops include maize, sor£hum ~d pulses.

Coffee, tea and pyrethrum are raiBeQ primarily for export. Since the altitude is not conducive to the tsetse, the region has the Large et co nce n t.r-ati ou ⁰f Lav e s t ock in East Africa.

16. Based on the average raiLfall and the distribution of that rainfall, the various geographical areas in East Africa basically fall into one of the broad zones mentioned below:

(a) Precipitation ranee -

15/35

inches per annum with not less than five months of precipi tation under one inch per month (drought conditio ns }, Land use: ex t.er.sive lives tack t;razi,ng, seasonal grain prod uctioz , (0) Precipitation range -

25/50

iLches per annun with not les~ than three

months in a:ny year when drought conditions exist (less than one irJch per month). Land t.se s mixed cropping, maize pr-oducti on , dairying.

(c) Precipitation range -

35/65

inches per annum with not more than o~e month representing drought conditions. Land use: coffee and tea

pr-odi.cti or. mixed cropping, Liv en t ock production.

17. The above z or.e s do r.ot generally coincide wi th coun ta-y bovnd ar-i e e and most of t.r,e East African countries err br-ace two or three of the zones. In most East African countries, eco Io gi.c a I condi tions differ greatJ.)' arJd various regions within a country may complement the r ar.ge of agr-i cu lt.i.r-al products pr-od^tce d in other r-eg.i ons of the same country. So comparatively stror.e ecoloeic~l complementarity exists

within most East African countries.

18. Main ecological corditions between East Africa~ countries do not alw~s djffer so widE-I:,- r.o^r' d o the patterns of agr-i ci.Lt.ur a I prOQltCbOTJ. Actually, most East

.Afric<.:.r: coun tries prodLee , in prir.ci p Le , sim; 1 a.r staple f'o od-ec z-cps , i. e. erain~ such as ma.i ae , sore-hums, n.i Ll et , v..te~~t, or rice, s upp Leme n t.ed in var;)'ine d e gr-e e s b;y pi.Lse s , root crops, vegetables and frLits. Three main types of human diet can be distin-

guished for East Africa:

(a) a ciet tJa~,(-c n.ain l y OTl cereals (Ba.st Equatorial 0avo.nI,a~" Eastern pl a t e au and hiGhlands);

(b) a diet br.tG(~d mainly on rOCJi-crops (zone of dcprecr:iotl of great lakes main ly around Lake Victoria);

(c) a diet ba.s e d n.a.i n Iy on pulses (hichlar~dD r,pighbol,.,rine,: depressions of ere a i l ak c s ) •

It ahouLd be po i.nt e d Out -:h2-t the above zones of di fferent nut r-at.i.ona I regions go across country bcunoazi e s., Jr. v ar-ao i.e pa.r-t s of the s arne country al.l t.ru-e e of the abov e-e-entior.ed ITI!..1in tYJ1e::: of human diet c an be found

19. The weight of rnaⁱn rlLtritional types in total food co neumptton in the various countries is unequal and co ns eque n'tIy the average diet also di ffers to a certain ex t.er.t., The str-i.c t.i.r-e of' the human diet in 11 East Africar. countries for which the neces8ary data were available is shown in Chart I-I. Acco~ding to the chart, in seven cou~tries, i.e. Malawi, ZWlbia_t Madagascar, Ethiopiat Kenya, Tar.zenia and Somalia, some

60-84

per cent of average per capita calorie intake was derived from cereals. Close to this diet titructLre is Kauritius, where cereals represpnt some 53-54 per cent of the average per capi ta calorie irltake.

20. In other countries of the sub-region, in particular Burundi, Uganda and Rwanda, the major part of the average diet co~sists of starchy roots

(41-48

per cent)

supplemented by cereals, fruits, vegetables a~d pulses. Almost all cereals consumed in East Africa are locally produced, i.e. generally u.aize, millet, sorGhun and in addi ti.on to these, in Ethiopia teff and in Kad.agaac ar- and l':aLrit ius rice.

21. Wheat is the only cereal of importance in East Africa which is imported on a large scale. ]ut wheat represents only

9

per cent of the total East African cereal

ccr.sun.p tion , Out of the roughly one million tons consumed annual Iy in 1964-66, only 233 thouaand tens were imported. The rest Was produced and also mostly consumed in

the "teat prodt:cing countries of Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Lesotho and Burundi.

As a conseqt.;.ence of the fact that East African countries produce most of the crops

C011Stituting the r.ai,n local diet, the propo r tdor, of imported food is comparatively

low, from

4

to 5 per cent. This percentage would be even lower if food consumption of non-national residents were excluded. Imported agricultural products (including non-food products) compared to the value of total local cor-sumption of agricultural

commcci,ties is also comparatively low and is illustrated by the following data.

Table I-I:

Countries comprised in the group

Per-centage of imports

on :.ocal consumptio_n ~ --=;.;;.;;...;.;;;;;...;;...".;;;.... ....,

0-10 Rwanda, Burundi, Ethiopia,

Tanzania

10-20 Uganda, Malawi, Kenya, Lesotho,

Madagascar

20-40 Zanbia, Somalia, Botswana

40-70 Swaziland

10-80 1i.at.ri tius

Source: Anr.ex Table

1-7

~\2. Table 1-1 above shows th at the share of i.rr.perts of agricL.lt.ura.I products in most :~ast African count.ries does r.ot exceed 20 per cerrt of the value of locally

cor.suned agricul tllral comn.odities. r:-'hp average for East Africa was 13 per cer.t in 1964-66. If the fi ve COWlt:'ies for which the per-ce ntage cxceed~ 2U are excLuded , the ayerae;€ wOLld. fall to SODle

9

per cent.

CHART 1-1

Structure of average diet in selected East African countries

Composition moyenne de I'alimentation dans certains pays de l'Afrique de l'Est

Malawi

Zambia

Madagascar

Ethiopia

Kenya

Mauritius

Tanzania

Somalia

Burundi

Uganda

Rwanda

(Average 1964 -1966)

. ..1

---

~ _ .

...

...

^{" ,}

. ...

• • • • • • • t1 .

1~~~~~~;~~~~~i1~~~~~~~~j~j ^;I; ~~~~~~j~i1~i;~j 110

11~~~~1~~~~~!~~

_l~~;;~~~~~~~~~~~l _.,., ^{, , - - -} I

~ IIII !II II!IIIIII ////1/11 !Ill; ~~~~;~~~~;;~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 10

~II/IIII//I/lII/IIIIII//////l!lJi;~~~~1~~~~;~~~~~~;~~~~;~;~~D

~IIIII///IIIIIII///////IIII///lf~j~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~i;~D

Total Calories

')104

2289 2355

2103

2243

2372

2136 1754

2016 2157

1897

CEREALS

Cer~ales

-

STARCHY ROOTS Feculentes

OTHER VEG. PROD. MEAT Autres produits

v~getaux Viande

1.... ·..·..._~1

.:: =. . . , t=: ::~::^{=: : : =}

Source ECA/FAO Food 3:..L..:.nce 5hee t s ,

2.3. Per caj.i ta ar.i.maI pr-cte ar; Lrrt axe di f'f'er-s cor.e i.o ea-ab.Iy an.cr.g ccin tries in both absolute rr:al;;r.itude and str t.ctur-e :'€e;;ard inc; li.ves tack prodt.c^te ar d fi she In Somalia, Ethiopia GJ1d Rwauia, e aae n ti a Ll y all of the anima.I protein intake is derived from livestock pr-o ci.ct.a , mostly meat and d ai r-y pr-od uc t.s , In Zambia and Burundi fish provides about 40 per cer.t of' tot al arri ma I p.rote i,n intake. In the ether five coun t.r-Le s , Madagascar, Uganda, 'I'ar-z er.i a , Kalawi and j,:C'~t.ri ",~ljS, the per- cer.t z.ge of per eapi ta intake frorr. fh,h v arie s f'r-ori 22 to 26 per cent. PE'T capi ta fish frod i.ction approximates IJ€r capi t.a fi ah cor.ei.mp t.i on except I n l\;at;l'i^'tius arid Son.a Li a., I.~ost of the fish cor.sume d ill Maur-ati.us is imported and. !::IOSt of the fish prodL.ced in Somalia is Axported.

24. Comparati ve simi Lar-i:J' :in the eco Logic aI cor.di ti.cns b€t~i(l(.:r_ at least some East African countries con t.r-Lout e s also to the sir;,il'Jri ty of the structure of their aerieultl4ral exports. 1'.:ost East .h.fI'j.can count.rie e export basi ca l Iy cr.e or several of the following crops: coffee, cotton, sugar, sisal, tea a~d tObacco. Livestock pr-oducttor., on the other hand, shows greater v ar r aba Jo ty and will be discussed Later-,

25. The main patterns of crop exports are shawl:. .ir. Chart 1-2. This cha.rt Lndi ca't.e s that the main export crop in East Africa is coffee. Crop exports of Ethiopia,

Isur-undi and ~landa are comprised a.Lmost exc Lusive Jy cf co f'f'ee , Coffee also plays a more import.ar.t role in exports than any other sillgle crop ir, U&3.llda, Kenya and .Kadag,;lscar. In addition Malald is ^2.]80 a net exporter of coffee. Thus, altogether eiGht East African countries are er'6uGed in ihe export

0:

coffee. As far as other crops expcr-t.ed from East Afl'ica are concerned, the numbe r of courrt ri e s anvc Lved in exports thereof in 1964-66 was as follows: sLgar b countries (three countries, however, exported less s~gar than they i~ported); gro~ndnuts 8 countl'ieB, tobacco and C)ttO}J lint 7 countries; tea 6 countries; and si s eI 5 countr-z e s ,

26. rrhe pate.rns of pr-oci.cta on of both n.ain stap l e food crop~;;.nd J:Jair. export crops desert bed above indicate that the soil, r-a.i r.f'aLl and other co ndi ti ons in most Eae t Africa.r. coun tries are perhaps more vari able ra t her- vi t.hi n moat Bas^t African coun tri es thar. 3ll1onc them. Thus the economic cornp l eme r.t ar-I ty be t.ve er, no st East African

coun^tr i.e s is r'e La.t i.veLy lillli ted compar-ed to .'[est Africa, for example.

27. Though the ecological co ndi tior.s it1 most East African countries do r.ot differ too d r-astically in the sense explair.ed above, there ar-e SOrlie important differences ill sui tabili ty of soi Is and other condi ti o ns for pr-o dt.c ti or: of aon.e parti cu 1 ar crops, e.

e.

Wheat, ri ce , oi Lee ed s , suear cane ar.d various kar.d s of vebetables ar.d fl't-:i1.8.

As an i Ll.ustr-atd on tc this sugar cane y i e Id s are shown in cnir-t 1-3. 'I'ne s e yi.e Ld s va:J'Y from 22.2 m,t. per hectare in Ken.)' e. to 131. U m, t , 1)e1' hee tare ir. Ethio pi a., These differences reflect, among other factors, the vai-da ti or. o~ soil, climatic arid other ecolOGical conditions th~t influence the sLi~abi]ity of the area Ln~er suear c ane for the pr-oducti cn thereof.

28. Another as pe ct. of comp.l ementari tJ' be twe en East African countries ^Lie s itl the unev e.. di stri bu t a o n of grasslands and &T2.ziq~ land, cattle num be r-s ar.d niea t ot.f.pu't in rela tier. to popuLa tior. ar.d domes ti c meat co ra urnpti o r. Levc Lc , Chart 1-4. shows the cattl,~/popul.::~tior,ratio. The ratio varies widc l y in East Africa :~Of!J 0.06 head of cat t.I.e per capi ta of human po pu l atio n in r.:alJri titJE-~ to 2. GO in Botswar.at the avez-a.:e for the 14 East African count.ri e e wa.s O. 82 .in 1964-66.

29. Irnpo rtant tiiffprer,ces it) the c c^tt.I.e po pu La tior, r-at io find the-ir expr-ss sion also a n di f'f'e r-ence s in per capi to. beef pr-oc i.cti or. a Itl:Ol'Ch the p ro po rti01, may vary de pendd ng on the pr-oduot ivi t;y of the herd. P8J:' c api ta beef pr-c.ti.c tion it! 1~64-66

var-Ieu f'zom 1.1 kg in ~~aur:i.tit"f; to 51.Sl kg in Botsu ann , 'l'n e av(':ra~:t.~ for Las t r.frica was 9..3 kt;. 'l'ne followir:g table SIJOWS the averacc distribution of beef proG.l.lot:ion

b~' class intervals.

Principales exportations ogricoles en Afrique de l'Est (moyenne 1964.66)

...

o

t Rwanda

~

Cotton lint coton

tobacco tabac

illillillill1il

._"" "

.

._.

. .

...

...

...

l1li

. Zambia

II

Burundi

~

Sugar sucre

tea the"

CIIIlIJ

^.......

···....

~.. .. . ."..... . .^. . ...^~. .. . .. ...

-

Swaziland Malawi

coffee cafe

sisal

~

-

Madagascar

»i

Mauritius Kenya

Tanzania Uganda

30 20 10

40

-

SO

-

-

60 -70

-

80

-

90

100 ^~

...

-

110

-

-120

130

n·..·..·

140

-

150 160 Value in US.$ Mill.

Ethiopia

131.0

Somalia

CHART 1-3

Sugar-cane yields in East Africa in metric tons/hector.

(Average 1964-1966)

Rendements des cannes cisucre en Alrique de l'Est en tonnes par hecta re (moyenne 1964 - 66)

Swaziland

85.2

Mauritius

Madagascar

Uganda

82.5

Tanzania Kenya

77.6 61.5 45.1 24.8 22.2

CHART 1-4

Cattle population ratio in East Africa (Average 1964 - 1966)

Nombre de bovins par habitanten Afrique de IIEst (moyenne 1964.66)

2.0 1.6 1.8

1.4 1.2

0.8 l.0 0.4 0.6

L -

l

L - - - f

0 0.2

Botswana

I

Madagascar

I

Swaziland

I

Ethiopia

I

Tanzania

J Kenya

I

Somalia

I

Uganda

I

Lesotho

I

Zambis

I

Rwanda

CJ

Burundi

0

Malawi

D

Mauritius

0

Table 1-2: Beef rod~ction oer ca~ta of human population in kg Average 1964- 6~

Per capita beef roduction in ~

0-3 3-6

6-10 10-12

12 and no r-e

Countries comprised in the group l.1auritLus , Italawi, Burundi , Rwanda Zambia

Somalia

Madagascar, Ta~zania, Ethiopia, Lesotho, Kenya, Ueanda

swaziland~,

^Botswana£!

Source: See table 1-14 Swazilc.nd 28 kg.

Botsv ana 52 kg.

30.

The variation in per capita beef consumption tends to be proportionally lower tha.n in beef production. So there exists some complementarity in the cattLe industry which co~ld stjrnLl~te sub-regio~al trade.

31.

Similarly, as in the case of cattle, ^tnere is ^some complementarity in East Africa with respect to fish reSOLrces and production as related to population nlilnbers and consumption habits. Per capita fish prod~ctionvaried from 0.1 kg to 10.8 kg and per capi^ta fi~h co neumpti.on from 0.1 to 12.4 kg in 1964-1966.

32. Though, as it has been told earlier, most East African countries cover such vast areas that they embrace wi thin their boundaries various ecological aone s l'Thich

compleme~t each otter in certain instances, there also exists an ecological comple- mentarity between the countries. The examples of several crops r.,entioned in

par-agr-aph

27

above, livestock and fish st..gL::;est that there is sL;fficient scope for specializat:'on and co-operation based thereon. Later on in this stL.dy it will be shown ^that t.he pr-e s e^r,t sub-rC'Li.o.na1 trade flows regarding agrieul tural commodi ties

may tre bLe over the 1965/80 period, pr-ovided ce r ^tat n condi tiOTIS for such en increase are n.et ,