Final Energy Consumption in 2016
Final energy consumption in the combined regions of Northern, Western and Southern Europe continued to be dominated by fossil fuels in 2016. Electricity provided 22% of the total final energy consumed.
REGIONS OF NORTHERN, WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EUROPE IN 2016
4%
42%
21%
7%
22%
3.9%
Coal, Lignite and Peat
Oil
Natural Gas
Bioenergy and Waste
Electricity
Heat and Other
FIGURE 22. ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION BY ENERGY SOURCE IN THE COMBINED REGIONS OF NORTHERN, WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EUROPE IN 2016
18%
0.13% Coal, Lignite and Peat
Oil
Electricity Production in 2016
The electricity production mix in the combined regions of Northern, Western and Southern Europe was very diverse in 2016. Nuclear electricity contributed a quarter of the total production in this region, while hydropower, renewables and other sources provided about a third of the total.
Energy and Electricity Projections
● Total final energy consumption in the combined regions of Northern, Western and Southern Europe is expected to decrease as a result of efficiency improvements and structural changes in the economy. Decreases of about 4.5% and about 11.4% from the present level of 44 EJ are expected by 2030 and by 2050, respectively.
● Electricity consumption will initially remain the same but will increase after 2030, with a 20% increase expected between 2030 and 2050.
● The share of electricity in final energy consumption will thus increase from 22.1% in 2016 to 24.2% by 2030 and to 30.3% by 2050.
FIGURE 23. FINAL CONSUMPTION OF ENERGY AND ELECTRICITY IN THE COMBINED REGIONS OF NORTHERN, WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EUROPE
0
2016 2030 2040 2050
EJ
Electricity Energy
Energy (EJ) Electricity (EJ)
% of total
TABLE 13. FINAL CONSUMPTION OF ENERGY AND ELECTRICITY IN THE COMBINED REGIONS OF NORTHERN, WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EUROPE
Final
a Final consumption refers to all fuel and energy that is delivered to energy consumers.
11
Nuclear Electrical Generating Capacity Projections
● Total electrical generating capacity in the combined regions of Northern, Western and Southern Europe is projected to increase by 14.2% by 2030 and by 9.7% to reach 1215 GW(e) by 2050.
● Several countries in these regions have announced a phaseout of nuclear power. The regions’ nuclear power capacity will therefore change significantly in the coming years.
● In the low case, nuclear electrical generating capacity is projected to decrease by 45% by 2030 and by 65%
by 2050. The share of nuclear power capacity in total electricity capacity will thus decrease from 11.6% to 5.5% by 2030 and to 3.2% by 2050.
● In the high case, the nuclear electrical generating capacity is projected to remain essentially the same: it is projected to decrease to 103 GW(e) by 2030 and then increase to 120 GW(e) in 2050. The share of nuclear power capacity in the total electricity production capacity will therefore decrease from 11.6% to 9.3% in 2030 and to 9.9% in 2050.
FIGURE 24. NUCLEAR ELECTRICAL GENERATING CAPACITY IN THE COMBINED REGIONS OF NORTHERN, WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EUROPE
0
Low High Low High Low High
2016 2030 2040 2050
GW(e)
Low High Low High Low High Total (GW(e))
Nuclear (GW(e)) 61 103 50 97 39 120
% of total 5.51 9.33 4.32 8.34 3.19 9.89
a Nuclear capacity estimates take into account the scheduled retirement of older units at the end of their lifetime.
1 108 1 164 1 215
113 11.64
2050a TABLE 14. TOTAL AND NUCLEAR ELECTRICAL GENERATING CAPACITY IN THE COMBINED REGIONS OF NORTHERN, WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EUROPE
Electrical Capacity
970
2016 2030a 2040a
Reactor Retirements and Additions
● Almost all of the existing nuclear power reactors in the combined regions of Northern, Western and Southern Europe are scheduled to be retired by the middle of the century.
● In the low case, about 61 GW(e) of nuclear electrical generating capacity will be retired by 2030 and an additional 42 GW(e) of capacity will be retired between 2030 and 2050. The projected additions of nuclear capacity in this case are only 9 GW(e) by 2030 and some 20 GW(e) by 2050.
● In the high case, nuclear power reactor retirements will be delayed; the majority of the reactors will be retired between 2030 and 2050. The additions of nuclear capacity in this case are projected to be 12 GW(e) by 2030 and some 93 GW(e) by 2050.
FIGURE 25. NUCLEAR CAPACITY IN THE COMBINED REGIONS OF NORTHERN, WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EUROPE: ACTUAL, RETIREMENTS AND ADDITIONS
HIGH CASE
LOW CASE
Electricity and Nuclear Production Projections
● Total electricity production in the combined regions of Northern, Western and Southern Europe is projected to increase from 2979 TW∙h in 2016 to 3252 TW∙h in 2030 — an increase of about 9% over 14 years — with an additional increase of 17% to reach 3809 TW∙h by 2050.
● In the low case, nuclear electricity production will decrease significantly from 742 TW∙h in 2016 to 482 TW∙h in 2030 and to 313 TW∙h in 2050. The share of nuclear electricity in the total will thus decrease from 24.9% in 2016 to 14.8% by 2030 and to 8.2% by 2050.
● In the high case, nuclear electricity production is projected to increase by about 8.5% by 2030, and further increase by 18.6% by 2050. The share of nuclear electricity in total electricity production will essentially remain constant in this case at around 25%.
FIGURE 26. NUCLEAR ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION IN THE COMBINED REGIONS OF NORTHERN, WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EUROPE
0
Low High Low High Low High
2016 2030 2040 2050
TW·h
Low High Low High Low High Total (TW·h)
Nuclear (TW·h) 482 817 403 778 313 969
% of total 14.82 25.11 11.69 22.57 8.21 25.43 TABLE 15. TOTAL AND NUCLEAR ELECTRICAL PRODUCTION IN THE COMBINED REGIONS OF NORTHERN, WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EUROPEa
Electricity
Production 2016 2030 2040 2050
2 979 3 252 3 445 3 809
742 24.89
a The nuclear production data presented in this table and the nuclear electrical generating capacity data presented in Table 14 cannot be used to calculate average annual capacity