Final Energy Consumption in 2016
Final energy consumption in the Latin America and the Caribbean region was dominated by oil and gas, which together accounted for over 60% of the total, with coal accounting for only 3% of the final energy consumption in 2016. Electricity use in 2016 was 18% of the total final energy consumption, while bioenergy and waste (traditional fuels) accounted for
3%
49%
13%
17%
18%
0.2%
Coal, Lignite and Peat Oil
Natural Gas
Bioenergy and Waste Electricity
Heat and Other IN THE LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION IN 2016
FIGURE 16. ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION BY ENERGY SOURCE IN THE LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION IN 2016
7%
Coal, Lignite and Peat Oil
Natural Gas
Bioenergy and Waste Hydro
Nuclear Wind Solar Geothermal
Electricity Production in 2016
Hydropower is the main source of electricity production in the Latin America and the Caribbean region, providing about 50%
of the total electricity production. Fossil fuel based electricity production accounted for about 40% of the total, led by gas at 26%. Renewables and other sources contributed about 8% to the total electricity production in 2016. Nuclear electricity had only a 2% share in total electricity production in the region.
Energy and Electricity Projections
● The total final energy consumption in the Latin America and the Caribbean region is expected to increase by about 1.5% per year up to the middle of the century.
● Electricity consumption, however, will increase at a slightly faster pace of 2.1% growth annually.
● The share of electricity in final energy consumption will increase from 17.8% in 2016 to 18.8% in 2030 and about 23.8% by the middle of the century.
FIGURE 17. FINAL CONSUMPTION OF ENERGY AND ELECTRICITY IN THE LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION
0
2016 2030 2040 2050
EJ
Electricity Energy
Energy (EJ) Electricity (EJ)
% of total
TABLE 10. FINAL CONSUMPTION OF ENERGY AND ELECTRICITY IN THE LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION
Final
a Final consumption refers to all fuel and energy that is delivered to energy consumers.
8
Nuclear Electrical Generating Capacity Projections
● Electrical generating capacity in the Latin America and the Caribbean region is projected to increase by 36%, reaching 548 GW(e) by 2030 and 809 GW(e) by 2050.
● Nuclear electrical generating capacity is projected to increase in both the low and the high case, but the role of nuclear electricity will remain small.
● In the low case, nuclear electrical generating capacity is projected to increase from 5 GW(e) in 2016 to 8 GW(e) by 2030 and to stay at that level until 2050. The share of nuclear in the total electrical generating capacity is projected to increase slightly from 1.3% to 1.5% by 2030 and then to decrease to 1% by 2050.
● In contrast, in the high case, nuclear electrical generating capacity is projected to increase to 10 GW(e) in 2030 and to 25 GW(e) in 2050. The share of nuclear electrical generating capacity in total electrical capacity will thus increase to 1.8% in 2030 and to 3% in 2050.
FIGURE 18. NUCLEAR ELECTRICAL GENERATING CAPACITY IN THE LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION
0
Low High Low High Low High
2016 2030 2040 2050
GW(e)
Low High Low High Low High Total (GW(e))
Nuclear (GW(e)) 8 10 7 17 8 25
% of total 1.47 1.83 1.03 2.49 0.99 3.10
a Nuclear capacity estimates take into account the scheduled retirement of older units at the end of their lifetime.
548 685 809
5 1.26
2050a TABLE 11. TOTAL AND NUCLEAR ELECTRICAL GENERATING CAPACITY IN THE LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION
Electrical Capacity
403
2016 2030a 2040a
Reactor Retirements and Additions
● There are seven nuclear power reactors operating in the Latin America and the Caribbean region. All but one were constructed before 2001 and are scheduled to be retired by the middle of the century.
● In the low case, 4.3 GW(e) of the existing nuclear electrical generating capacity will be retired by 2050. In the high case, retirement of some of the nuclear power reactors will be delayed by plant life extensions, and about half the existing nuclear capacity will be retired.
● The projected additions of nuclear electrical generating capacity in the high case are 5 GW(e) by 2030 and an additional 17 GW(e) by 2050. In the low case, only 8 GW(e) of additional capacity is projected for the entire period.
HIGH CASE
LOW CASE
FIGURE 19. NUCLEAR CAPACITY IN THE LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION: ACTUAL, RETIREMENTS AND ADDITIONS
Electricity and Nuclear Production Projections
● Total electricity production in the Latin America and the Caribbean region is projected to increase by around 2.4% per year.
● Nuclear electricity production is projected to increase in both the low and the high case, but its role will remain small in the coming decades.
● In the low case, nuclear electricity production will increase by 45% in the next 14 years to reach 61 TW∙h in 2030, after which it will first decrease and then recover to 65 TW∙h in 2050. The share of nuclear electricity in total electricity production will thus initially increase to 2.8% in 2030 and then decrease to 1.8% in 2050.
● In the high case, nuclear electricity production is projected to increase by 6.1% per year up to 2030 and then by 5.5% per year up to 2050. The share of nuclear electricity in total electricity production will therefore increase from 2.1% in 2016 to 3.5% in 2030 and to 5.7%
in 2050.
FIGURE 20. NUCLEAR ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION IN THE LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION
0
Low High Low High Low High
2016 2030 2040 2050
TW·h
Low High Low High Low High Total (TW·h)
Nuclear (TW·h) 61 76 55 133 65 202
% of total 2.82 3.52 1.97 4.75 1.81 5.65
33 2.09
a The nuclear production data presented in this table and the nuclear electrical generating capacity data presented in Table 11 cannot be used to calculate average annual capacity TABLE 12. TOTAL AND NUCLEAR ELECTRICAL PRODUCTION
IN THE LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGIONa Electricity
Production 2016 2030 2040 2050
1 582 2 171 2 809 3 576