V. CHAPITRE 5 Conclusion générale et perspectives
5.2 Perspectives
5.2.3 L’impact des changements d’usage du sol sur l’hydrologie
Dans la forêt tropicale péruvienne, le déboisement est évalué sur la période 2004-2005 a une surface de 1174 km2
5.2.4 L’impact du changement hydrologique au niveau journalier sur l’hydrologie.
(Oliveira et al., 2007). Dans notre étude, nous utilisons les données de sol de la FAO comme condition initiale de capacité en eau de sols tout en négligeant de facto les changements d’usage des sols. Une étude de sensibilité avec différents scenarios d’occupation du sol permettraient par ailleurs d’évaluer les impacts hydrologiques.
Dans le cadre de cette thèse, nous nous sommes focalisés sur des données et modèles mensuels, mais une perspective serait bien sur d’évaluer les impacts des changements
CHAPITRE 5. Conclusion générale et perspectives 146 climatiques sur l’hydrologie au niveau journalier. Pour réaliser cet objectif, des techniques de ‘downscalling’ au niveau journalier devrait être réalisées et les sorties appliquées sur des modèles hydrologiques opérant au pas de temps journalier. Ces résultats permettront ainsi de quantifier l’impact des changements climatiques sur les extrêmes hydrologiques (étiages et crues).
5.2.5 Autres perspectives
Enfin divers autres perspectives peuvent aussi être mentionnées telles que :
• Validation des données d’évapotranspiration (données des bacs type ‘A’ ou de lysimètres) par comparaison avec les équations empiriques d’évapotranspiration.
• Evaluation des méthodes d’interpolation des variables climatiques.
• Evaluation des tendances des extrêmes hydrométéorologiques en utilisant des données journalières sur de longues périodes pour évaluer les changements climatiques.
• Régionalisation des paramètres des modèles hydrologiques pour évaluer les comportements hydrologiques dans des bassins non jaugés.
147
Bibliographie
Abtew, W. (1996). Evapotranspiration measurements and modeling for three wetland systems in south Florida. Water Resources Bulletin, 32(3): 465-473.
Aceituno, P. (1988). On the functionning of the Southern Oscillation in the South American sector. Part 1 : surface climate. Mon. Wea. Rev., 116,: 505-524.
ACTO (2005). A proposal for defining the geographical boundaries of Amazonia. In: H.D. Eva et O. Huber (Editors), Synthesis of the results from an Expert Consultation Workshop organized by the European Commission in collaboration with the Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organization - JRC Ispra, 7-8 June 2005.
Ali, S., Ghosh, N.C. et Singh, R. (2007). Evaluating best evaporation estimate model for water surface evaporation in semi-arid region, India. Hydrological Processes
Allen, G.R., Periera, L.S., Raes, D. et Smith, M. (1998). Crop evapotranspiration: Guidelines for computing crop water requirements. FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper 56. Food and Agricultural Orgainzation of the United Nations.
Alley, W.M. (1985). Water Balance Models in One-Month-Ahead Streamflow Forecasting. Water Resour. Res., 21(4): 597-606.
Andersson, L. et al. (2006). Impact of climate change and development scenarios on flow patterns in the Okavango River. Journal of Hydrology, 331(1-2): 43-57.
Ardoin-Bardin, S. (2004). Variabilité hydroclimatique et impacts sur les ressources en eau de grands bassins hydrographiques en zone soudano-sahélienne. , Université Montpellier II, Montpellier, France, 330 p. pp.
Ardoin-Bardin, S. et al. (2009). Using general circulation model outputs to assess impacts of climate change on runoff for large hydrological catchments in West Africa. Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques, 54(1): 77-89. Arnell, N.W. (1999). The effect of climate change on hydrological regimes in Europe: a
continental perspective. Global Environmental Change, 9(1): 5-23.
Baigorria, G.A., Villegas, E.B., Trebejo, I., Carlos, J.F. et Quiroz, R. (2004). Atmospheric transmissivity: distribution and empirical estimation around the central andes. Int. J. Climatol., 24: 1121-1136.
BCEOM (1999). Estudio hidrológico - meteorológico en la vertiente del Pacífico del Perú con fines de evaluación y pronóstico del fenómeno el niño para prevención y mitigación de desastres. Volumen I, Asociacion BCEOM – Sofi Consult S.A. - ORSTOM, Programa de apoyo a la emergencia Fenomeno del Niño. Contrato de prestamo n°4250-PE-BIRF, Presidencia de la Republica, Perú.
Bibliographie 148 Beven, K. et Kirkby, M. (1979). A physically based variable contributing area model of basin
hydrology. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 24: 43-69.
Boughton, W. (2005). Catchment water balance modelling in Australia 1960-2004. Agricultural Water Management, 71(2): 91-116.
Box, G.E.P. et Tiao, G.C. (1973). Bayesian Inference in Statistical Analysis. Addison- Wesley-Longman, Reading, MA.
Bradley, R.S., Vuille, M., Diaz, H.F. et Vergara, W. (2006). Threats to water supplies in the tropical Andes. Science, 312(5781): 1755-1756.
Bristow, K. et Campbell, G. (1984). On the relationship between incoming solar radiation and daily maximum and minimum temperature. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 31: 159-166.
Brooks, N. et Adger, N. (2003). Country level risk measures of climate-related natural disasters and implications for adaptation to climate change. Working Paper 26, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research.
Brunet-Moret, Y. (1979). Homogénéisation des précipitations Cahiers ORSTOM, Série Hydrologie., 16: 3-4.
Burn, D.H. et Elnur, M.A.H. (2002). Detection of hydrologic trends and variability. Journal of Hydrology, 255(1-4): 107-122.
CARE (2008). Humanitarian Implications of Climate Change: Mapping Emerging Trends and Risk Hotspots” Copyright © 2008 Cooperative for Assistance and Relief Everywhere, Inc. (CARE).
Chaffaut, I., Coudrian-Ribstein, A., Michelot, J.L. et Pouyaud, B. (1998). Précipitations d'altitude du Nord-Chili, origine des sources de vapeur et donnés isotopiques,. Bull. Inst. Fr. Etudes Andines, 27: 367-384.
Charles, S.P., Bari, M.A., Kitsios, A. et Bates, B.C. (2007). Effect of GCM bias on downscaled precipitation and runoff projections for the Serpentine catchment, Western Australia. International Journal of Climatology, 27(12): 1673-1690.
Chen, D.L., Gao, G., Xu, C.Y., Guo, J. et Ren, G.Y. (2005). Comparison of the Thornthwaite method and pan data with the standard Penman-Monteith estimates of reference evapotranspiration in China. Climate Research, 28(2): 123-132.
Chen, J., Del Genio, A.D., Carlson, B.E. et Bosilovich, M.G. (2008). The spatiotemporal structure of twentieth-century climate variations in observations and reanalyses. Part I: Long-term trend. J. Climate, 21: 2611-2633.
Chen, X., Chen, Y.D. et Xu, C.Y. (2007). A distributed monthly hydrological model for integrating spatial variations of basin topography and rainfall. Hydrological Processes, 21(2): 242-252.
Chiew, F.H.S., Kamaladasa, N.N., Malano, H.M. et McMahon, T.A. (1995). Penman- Monteith, FAO-24 reference crop evapotranspiration and class-A pan data in Australia. Agricultural Water Management, 28(1): 9-21.
Bibliographie 149 Christensen, J.H. et al. (2007). Regional Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. . Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Coe, M.T., Costa, M.H., Botta, A. et Birkett, C. (2002). Long-term simulations of discharge
and floods in the Amazon Basin. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 107(D20).
Coe, M.T., Costa, M.H. et Howard, E.A. (2008). Simulating the surface waters of the Amazon River basin: impacts of new river geomorphic and flow parameterizations. Hydrological Processes, 22(14): 2542-2553.
Collischonn, B., Collischonn, W. et Tucci, C.E.M. (2008). Daily hydrological modeling in the Amazon basin using TRMM rainfall estimates. Journal of Hydrology, 360(1-4): 207- 216.
Collischonn, W., Allasia, D., Silva, B.C.D. et Tucci, C.E.M. (2007). The MGB-IPH model for large-scale rainfall–runoff modelling / Le modèle MGB-IPH pour la modélisation pluie–débit à grande échelle. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 52(5): 878-895.
Conway, D. et Jones, P.D. (1999). Assessing the impact of future climatic change on the water resources and the hydrology of the Rio de la Plata basin, Argentina. Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, UK.
Costa, M.H. et Foley, J.A. (1997). Water balance of the Amazon Basin: Dependence on vegetation cover and canopy conductance. Journal of Geophysical Research- Atmospheres, 102(D20): 23973-23989.
Costa, M.H. et Foley, J.A. (1999). Trends in the hydrologic cycle of the Amazon basin. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 104(D12): 14189-14198.
Costa, M.H. et al. (2002). A macroscale hydrological data set of river flow routing parameters for the Amazon Basin. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 107(D20). Dettinger, M.D., Cayan, D.R., Meyer, M. et Jeton, A.E. (2004). Simulated hydrologic
responses to climate variations and change in the Merced, Carson, and American River basins, Sierra Nevada, California, 1900-2099. Climatic Change, 62(1-3): 283- 317.
Deutsch, C.V. et Journel, A.G. (1992). GSLIB Geostatistical Software Library and User’s Guide. TIC: 224174., New York, New York: Oxford University Press.
Dibike, Y.B. et Coulibaly, P. (2005). Hydrologic impact of climate change in the Saguenay watershed: comparison of downscaling methods and hydrologic models. Journal of Hydrology, 307(1-4): 145-163.
Dieulin, C. (2005). Calcul des capacités en eau des sols (Water Holding Capacity - WHC) à partir de la carte des sols de la FAO, Note interne. HydroSciences Montpellier.
Dieulin, C., Boyer, J.F., Ardoin-Bardin, S. et Dezetter, A. (2006). The contribution of GIS to hydrological modelling. Climate Variability and Change-Hydrological Impacts, 68-74. IAHS Publ. 308, IAHS Press, Wallingford, UK, La Habana, Cuba, November 2006.
Bibliographie 150 Dingman, S.L. (1994). Physical Hydrology. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall.
Dollfus, O. (1964). Cambios climáticos cuaternarios en los Andes Peruanos. Bol.Soc.Geogr. Lima, 83: 65-74 and 84: 78-83.
Doorenbos, J. et Pruitt., W.O. (1977). Guidelines for predicting crop water requirements. FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper 24. Food and Agriculture Organization. Rome. Dray, A. (2001). Prise en compte de l’evolution de la occupation du sol dans la modélisation
des écoulements du Nakambé à Wayen (Burkina Faso), Rapport de stage ENSAR- IRD.
Drogue, G. et al. (2004). Simulating the spatio-temporal variability of streamflow response to climate change scenarios in a mesoscale basin. Journal of Hydrology, 293(1-4): 255- 269.
Duan, Q., Sorooshian, S. et Gupta, V. (1992). Effective and Efficient Global Optimization for Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Models. Water Resources Research, 28(4): 1015-1031. Edijatno et Michel, C. (1989). Un modèle pluie–débit journalier à trois paramètres. La Houille
Blanche, 2: 113-121.
Edijatno, Nascimento, N.O., Yang, X., Makhlouf, Z. et Michel, C. (1999). GR3J : a daily watershed model with three free parameters. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 44(2), 263-278., 44(2): 263-278.
Emanuel, C. et Escurra, J. (2000). Informe Nacional sobre la Gestión del Agua en el Perú, Comité asesor técnico de América del Sur – SAMTAC – Global Water Partnership (GWP). Lima.
Espinoza, J.C. et al. (2006a). La variabilité des débits du Rio Amazonas au Pérou. Climate variability and Change – Hydrological Impacts (Procceedings of the Fifth FRIEND World Conference held at Havana, Cuba, November 2006), IAHS Publ. 308, 2006, 424-429.
Espinoza, J.C. et al. (2006b). La variabilité des débits du Rio Amazonas au Pérou. Climate Variability and Change-Hydrological Impacts, 424 – 429. IAHS Publ. 308, IAHS Press, Wallingford, UK, La Habana, Cuba, November 2006.
Espinoza, J.C. et al. (2009a). Contrasting regional discharge evolutions in the amazon basin (1974 – 2004). Accepted by Journal of Hydrology.
Espinoza, J.C. et al. (2007). Hydroclimatic variability in the Andean region of the Amazon basin, Paper read at Changes to hydrologic extremes. IAHS, Perugia (Italia), juil-07. Espinoza , J.C. et al. (In Press). Contrasting regional discharge evolutions in the Amazon
basin (1974-2004). Journal of Hydrology, In Press, Accepted Manuscript.
Espinoza, J.C. et al. (2008). Spatio – Temporal rainfall variability in the Amazon Basin Countries (Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, Colombia and Ecuador). International Journal of Climatology, 9999(9999): n/a.
Bibliographie 151 Espinoza, J.C. et al. (2009b). Spatio – Temporal rainfall variability in the Amazon Basin
Countries (Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, Colombia and Ecuador). Accepted by International Journal of Climatology.
Espinoza, V.J.C. et al. (In Press). Contrasting regional discharge evolutions in the Amazon basin (1974-2004). Journal of Hydrology, In Press, Accepted Manuscript.
FAO/UNESCO (1981). CD-ROM :Soil Map of the World, Ten volumes. UN Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome, Italy.
Farr, T.G. et al. (2007). The Shuttle Radar Topography mission. Rev. Geophys., 45,: RG2004. Feyen, L., Vrugt, J.A., Nuallain, B.O., van der Knijff, J. et De Roo, A. (2007). Parameter optimisation and uncertainty assessment for large-scale streamflow simulation with the LISFLOOD model. Journal of Hydrology, 332: 276-289.
Figueroa, S.N. et Nobre, C. (1990). Precipitation distribution over central and western tropical South America. Climanalise, 5: 36-44.
Fontaine, T.A., Klassen, J.F., Cruickshank, T.S. et Hotchkiss, R.H. (2001). Hydrological response to climate change in the Black Hills of South Dakota, USA. Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques, 46(1): 27-40.
Fontenot, R.L. (2004). An evaluation of reference evapotranspiration models in Louisiana, Lousiana State University and A&M College, Louisiana.
Fooladmand, H.R. et Ahmadi, S.H. (2008). Monthly spatial calibration of Blaney-Criddle equation for calculating monthly ETo in south of Iran. Irrigation and Drainage, 9999(9999): n/a.
Fuenzalida, H. et Rutllant, J. (1987). Origen del vapor de agua que precipita sobre el Altiplano de Chile, paper presented at II Congreso InterAmericano de Meteorología, Am. Meteorol. Soc., Buenos Aires.
Garreaud, R., Vuille, M. et Clement, A.C. (2003). The climate of the Altiplano: observed current conditions and mechanisms of past changes. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 194: 5-22.
Garreaud, R.D. (1999). Multiscale Analysis of the Summertime Precipitation over the Central Andes. Monthly Weather Review, 127(5): 901-921.
Garreaud, R.D., Vuille, M., Compagnucci, R. et Marengo, J. (2008). Present-day South American climate. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, In Press, Corrected Proof.
Gavilán, P., Lorite, I.J., Tornero, S. et Berengena, J. (2006). Regional calibration of Hargreaves equation for estimating reference ET in a semiarid environment. Agricultural Water Management, 81(3): 257-281.
Geiger, R., Aron, R.H. et Toddhunter, P. (2003). The Climate Near The Ground, 6th Ed. New York: Rowman and Littlefield.
Gelman, A. et Rubin, D.B. (1992). Inference from iterative simulation using multiple sequences. Statistical Science 7(4): 457-472.
Bibliographie 152 Gentry, A.H. et Lopez-Parodi, J. (1980). Deforestation and Increased Flooding of the Upper
Amazon. Science, 210(4476): 1354-1356.
Georges, C. (2004). The 20th century glacier fluctuations in the Cordillera Blanca (Perú). Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, 36(1): 100-107.
Guo, S., Wang, J., Xiong, L., Ying, A. et Li, D. (2002a). A macro-scale and semi-distributed monthly water balance model to predict climate change impacts in China. Journal of Hydrology, 268(1-4): 1-15.
Guo, S.L., Wang, J.X., Xiong, L.H., Ying, A.W. et Li, D.F. (2002b). A macro-scale and semi- distributed monthly water balance model to predict climate change impacts in China. Journal of Hydrology, 268(1-4): 1-15.
Guyot, J.L., Bazán, H., Fraizy, P. et Ordoñez, J.J. (2007). Suspended sediment yields in the Amazon basin of Peru, first estimation. Water quality and sediment behaviour of the future : Predictions for the 21st Century (Webb B.W., Ed.), Perugia (Italia), 07/2007. IAHS Publ. 314, 1-8.
Hagg, W., Braun, L.N., Kuhn, M. et Nesgaard, T.I. (2007). Modelling of hydrological response to climate change in glacierized Central Asian catchments. Journal of Hydrology, 332(1-2): 40-53.
Hamon, W.R. (1961). Estimating potential evaporation. In: J.o.H. Division (Editor), Proceedings of the American Society of Civil Engineers, pp. 107-120.
Hansen, M., DeFries, R., Townshend, J.R.G. et Sohlberg, R. (1998). UMD Global Land Cover Classification, 1 Kilometer, 1.0, Department of Geography, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, 1981-1994.
Hansen, V.E., Israelsen, O.W. et Stringham, G.E. (1980). Irrigation Principles and Practices 4th Edition. . New York, NY: John Wiley and Sons, Inc.
Hargreaves, G.H. et Samani, Z.A. (1985). Reference crop evapotranspiration from temperature. Applied Engineering in Agriculture, 1(2): 96-99.
Hastings, W.K. (1970). Monte Carlo sampling methods using Markov chains and their applications. Biometrika, 57(1): 97-109.
Haylock, M.R. et al. (2006). Trends in Total and Extreme South American Rainfall in 1960- 2000 and Links with Sea Surface Temperature. Journal of Climate, 19(8): 1490-1512. Hiez, G. (1977). L'homogénéité des données pluviométriques. Cahiers ORSTOM, série
Hydrologie, 14: 129-72.
IGP (2005). Vulnerabilidad Actual y Futura ante el Cambio Climático y Medidas de Adaptación en la Cuenca del Río Mantaro. Evaluación local Integrada de Cambio Climático para la Cuenca del Río Mantaro, 9972-824-13-6, Lima, Perú.
Jabloun, M. et Sahli, A. (2008). Evaluation of FAO-56 methodology for estimating reference evapotranspiration using limited climatic data: Application to Tunisia. Agricultural Water Management, 95(6): 707-715.
Bibliographie 153 Jayasuriya, L.N., McMahon, T.A. et O'Neill, I.C. (1991). Development of a simplified two-
parameter rainfall-runoff model with potential for ungauged catchment application. International Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium, 2: 498-503.
Jensen, M.E. et Haise, H.R. (1963). Estimating evapotranspiration from solar radiation. Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Division, ASCE, 89(LR4): 15-41.
Jensen, M.E., R.D.Burman et Allen, R.G. (1990). Evapotranspiration and Irrigation Water Requirements. Manuals and Reports on Engineering Practice, Nº 70, Committee on Irrigation Water Requirements of the Irrigation and Drainage Division of the American Society of Civil Engineers.
Jiang, T. et al. (2007). Comparison of hydrological impacts of climate change simulated by six hydrological models in the Dongjiang Basin, South China. Journal of Hydrology, 336(3-4): 316-333.
Johnson, A. (1976). The climate of Peru, Bolivia and Ecuador. Climates of Central and South America. World Survey of Climatology, Vol. 12. Elsevier Scientific Publishing Company; New York 147-218, Chap. 4.
Jones, C. et Carvalho, L.M.V. (2002). Active and Break Phases in the South American Monsoon System. J. Climate, 15: 905-914.
Jones, R.N., Chiew, F.H.S., Boughton, W.C. et Zhang, L. (2006). Estimating the sensitivity of mean annual runoff to climate change using selected hydrological models. Advances in Water Resources, 29(10): 1419-1429.
Jose, A.M. et Cruz, N.A. (1999). Climate change impacts and responses in the Philippines: water resources. Climate Research, 12(2-3): 77-84.
Juen, I., Kaser, G. et Georges, C. (2007). Modelling observed and future runoff from a glacierized tropical catchment (Cordillera Blanca, Peru). Global and Planetary Change, 59: 37-48.
Kabouya, M. (1990). Modélisation pluie-débit au pas de temps mensuel et annuel en Algérie septentrionale., Université Paris-Sud, Paris, France.
Kane, R.P. (2000). El Nino/La Nina relationship with rainfall at Huancayo, in the Peruvian Andes. International Journal of Climatology, 20(1): 63-72.
Kaser, G., Juen, I., Georges, C., Gomez, J. et Tamayo, W. (2003). The impact of glaciers on the runoff and the reconstruction of mass balance history from hydrological data in the tropical Cordillera Blanca, Peru. Journal of Hydrology, 282(1-4): 130-144.
Kendall, M. (1975a). Rank Correlation Methods. Charles Griffin: London; 202 pp. Kendall, M.G. (1975b). Rank Correlation Methods. Charles Griffin, London.
Kundzewicz, Z.W. et al. (2007). Freshwater resources and their management. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 173-210.
Bibliographie 154 Labat, D., Godderis, Y., Probst, J.L. et Guyot, J.L. (2004). Evidence for global runoff increase
related to climate warming. Advances in Water Resources, 27(6): 631-642.
Laraque, A., Ronchail, J., Cochonneau, G., Pombosa, R. et Guyot, J.L. (2007). Heterogeneous distribution of rainfall and discharge regimes in the Ecuadorian Amazon basin. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 8(6): 1364-1381.
Lavado, C.W.S., Labat, D., Guyot, J.L., Ardoin-Bardin, S. et Ordoñez, J.J. (2008). Monthly water balance models in the Amazon drainage basin of Peru: Ucayali River basin. Submitted Hydrological Sciences Journal.
Lavado, C.W.S. et al. (submitted-a). Comparison of reference evapotranspiration models with the standard FAO Penman-Monteith model in the Peruvian Amazon-Andes basin. Journal of Hydrology.
Lavado, C.W.S. et al. (Submitted-b). Recent trends in rainfall, temperature and evapotranspiration in the Peruvian Amazonas-Andes basin: Huallaga and Ucayali basins. International Journal of Climatology.
Legates, D.R. et McCabe, G.J. (1999). Evaluating the use of "goodness of fit" measures in hydrologic and hydroclimatic model validation. Water Resources Research, 35(1): 233-241.
Liebmann, B. et Marengo, J.A. (2001). Interannual variability of the rainy season and rainfall in the Brazilian Amazon basin. Journal of Climate, 14(22): 4308-4318.
Limbrick, K.J., Whitehead, P.G., Butterfield, D. et Reynard, N. (2000). Assessing the potential impacts of various climate change scenarios on the hydrological regime of the River Kennet at Theale, Berkshire, south-central England, UK: an application and evaluation of the new semi-distributed model, INCA. The Science of The Total Environment, 251-252: 539-555.
Linacre, E.T. (1977). A simple formula for estimating evaporation rates in various climates, using temperature data alone. Agricultural Meteorology, 18(6): 409-424.
Mahe, G., Paturel, J.-E., Servat, E., Conway, D. et Dezetter, A. (2005). The impact of land use change on soil water holding capacity and river flow modelling in the Nakambe River, Burkina-Faso. Journal of Hydrology, 300(1-4): 33-43.
Makhlouf, Z. et Michel, C. (1994). A two-parameter monthly water balance model for French watersheds. Journal of Hydrology, 162(3-4): 299-318.
Makkink, G.F. (1957). Testing the Penman formula by means of lysimeters. Journal of the Institution of Water Engineering, 11(3): 277-288.
Mann, H.B. (1945). Non-parametric test againest trend. Econometrica, 13: 245-259.
Marengo, J. (2006). On the hydrological cycle of the amazon basin: A historical review and current state-of-the-art. Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia, 21(3): 1-19.
Marengo, J.A. (1992). Interannual Variability of Surface Climate in the Amazon Basin. International Journal of Climatology, 12(8): 853-863.
Bibliographie 155 Marengo, J.A. (1995). Variations and change in south American streamflow. Climatic
Change, 31(1): 99-117.
Marengo, J.A. (2004). Interdecadal variability and trends of rainfall across the Amazon basin. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 78(1): 79-96.
Marengo, J.A. et Camargo, C.C. (2008). Surface air temperature trends in Southern Brazil for 1960-2002. International Journal of Climatology, 28(7): 893-904.
Marengo, J.A., Miller, J.R., Russell, G.L., Rosenzweig, C.E. et Abramopoulos, F. (1994). Calculations of river-runoff in the GISS GGM: impact of a new land-surface parameterization and runoff routing model on the hydrology of the Amazon River. Climate Dynamics, 10(6): 349-361.
Marengo, J.A. et al. (2008). The drought of Amazonia in 2005. Journal of Climate, 21: 495- 516.
Marengo, J.A., Tomasella, J. et Uvo, C.R. (1998a). Trends in streamflow and rainfall in tropical South America: Amazonia, eastern Brazil, and northwestern Peru. Journal of Geophysical Research, 103(D2): 1775–1784.
Marengo, J.A., Tomasella, J. et Uvo, C.R. (1998b). Trends in streamflow and rainfall in tropical South America: Amazonia, eastern Brazil, and northwestern Peru. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 103(D2): 1775-1783.
Mark, B.G. et Seltzer, G.O. (2005). Evaluation of recent glacier recession in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru (AD 1962-1999): spatial distribution of mass loss and climatic forcing. Quaternary Science Reviews, 24(20-21): 2265-2280.
Matondo, J.I. et Msibi, K.M. (2001). Estimation of the impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources in Swaziland. Water International, 26(3): 425-434.
Melice, J. et Roucou, P. (1998). Decadal time scale variability recorded in the Quelccaya summit ice core ä18O isotopic ratio series and its relation with the sea surface temperature. Climate Dynamics, 14: 117-132.
MEM (1979). Evaluación del potencial hidroeléctrico nacional. Ministerio de Energia y Minas. Lima, Perú.
Menzel, L. et Bürger, G. (2002). Climate change scenarios and runoff response in the Mulde catchment (Southern Elbe, Germany). Journal of Hydrology, 267(1-2): 53-64.
Metropolis, N., Rosenbluth, A.W., Rosenbluth, M.N., Teller, A.H. et Teller, E. (1953). Equation of State Calculations by Fast Computing Machines. The Journal of Chemical Physics, 21(6): 1087-1092.
Mialocq, L., Acuña, M., Seyler, F., Yerren, J. et Guyot, J.L. (2005). Extraction of the topographic limits of the Andean and Amazonian river basins from SRTM., Isotope tracers and remote sensing techniques for assessing water cycle variability, IAHS, Foz de Iguaçu, April 2005.
Middelkoop, H. et al. (2001). Impact of climate change on hydrological regimes and water resources management in the rhine basin. Climatic Change, 49(1-2): 105-128.
Bibliographie 156 Miller, J.R., Russell, G.L. et Caliri, G. (1994). Continental-Scale River Flow in Climate
Models. Journal of Climate, 7(6): 914-928.
Mimikou, M., Kouvopoulos, Y., Cavadias, G. et Vayianos, N. (1991). Regional hydrological effects of climate change. Journal of Hydrology, 123(1-2): 119-146.
Molinier, M., Guyot, J.-L., Oliveira, E.d. et Guimarães, V. (1996). Les régimes hydrologiques de l'Amazone et de ses affluents. L'hydrologie tropicale: géoscience et outil pour le développement, 209-222. IAHS Publ. 238. IAHS Press, Wallingford, UK.