Impact of climate change

Climate change refers to a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to hu-man activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere, which is observed over comparable time periods and is in addition to natural climate variability (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, UNFCCC). The SADC Secretariat (SADC, 2011) reports that, between 1906 and 2005, the global mean temperature rose by 0.74 °C and is estimated to rise by 1.4 to 5.8°C between 1990 and 2100. In all likelihood, these changes are attributable to anthropogenic activities. The global warming of the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases. The main source of green-house gases emissions is the burning of fossil fuels for power generation, industrial processes and transportation. Thus, essentially carbon dioxide is the principal greenhouse gas that causes climate change.

This has been increasing as the world’s use of oil has been increasing, underpinned by higher demand for energy to drive and sustain economic growth. The least-developed countries of the world are no exception to this general trend. Figure 6.6 illustrates the growth in the oil imports bill in net-oil-importing least-developed countries worldwide, as a proxy for the growing demand for energy among these countries.

Figure 6.6: Oil import bills in net-oil-importing least-developed countries

Notes: * estimated, assuming average oil price of $100 per barrel; calculated as the value of net imports at prevailing average international process. Oil-import bills as a share of GDP are at the market exchange rate in 2010 US dollars. Source: adopted from the International Energy Agency (IEA, 2011).

Global warming is already adversely affecting the entire planet, posing sizable challenges to regions, countries, enterprises, communities and households. Many observers argue that least-developed and developing countries will bear the brunt of the adverse effects of climate change. Some highly vulnerable subregions, such as Southern Africa, are already being significantly affected by the impacts of climate change, although they are among the lowest emitters of carbon in the world and thus have very low global-warming “signatures”

(see Table 6.7).

Table 6.7: Carbon emissions - per capita metric tons⁴³

1990 2000 2005 2008 World Rank

2008*

Angola 0.43 0.68 1.20 2.54 139

Botswana 1.57 2.43 2.41 2.48 112

DRC 0.11 0.03 0.04 0.05 213

Madagascar 0.09 0.16 0.12 0.10 201

Malawi 0.06 0.09 0.08 0.09 202

Mauritius 1.38 2.33 2.74 3.12 108

Mozambique 0.07 0.07 0.09 0.10 203

Namibia 0.01 0.93 1.28 1.80 136

Seychelles 1.62 6.95 8.40 7.84 48

South Africa 9.47 8.37 8.64 8.93 42

Swaziland 0.49 1.12 0.92 1.06 157

Tanzania 0.09 0.08 0.13 0.15 209

Zambia 0.30 0.20 0.20 0.15 195

Zimbabwe 1.48 1.11 0.86 0.73 161

Average 1.15 1.64 1.81 1.94

Notes: * Out of 214 countries ranked. No data available for Lesotho. Source: World Energy Outlook (WEO)

The Southern African Research and Documentation Centre (SARDC, 2007) has not-ed that the impacts of climate change are already evident and include changes in water availability, food insecurity, sea-level rise and the melting of ice cover and snow in the Greenland ice sheet and on mountains such as Mount Kilimanjaro in Tanzania. The pro-jected frequency and intensity of heat waves, storms, floods and droughts in Africa is expected to increase and will affect millions of people across the continent.

SADC’s strategy document (SADC, 2011) encapsulates the main observations and projec-tions in relation to climate change in the subregion (Box 6.1). Among the main points, is the observation that for many countries of the subregion, climate change will mean more 43 At the time of preparing this report, the main internationally comparable sources of data (e.g. WDI

and WEO) had not updated their statistics on this variable to 2011.

severe and frequent droughts and floods, extreme temperatures, variability in rainfall, and other adverse weather effects. These natural disasters will have severe consequences for the livelihoods of households and enterprises in the SADC subregion. For instance, as Figure 6.8 shows, some SADC economies are heavily dependent on rainfall for their economic growth. A reduction in the amount of rainfall could be expected to result in a commensu-rate fall in GDP growth, as the case of Zimbabwe suggests.

Box 6.1: Climate change in SADC:

Over the last decades the subregion has been experiencing a warming trend. Accord-ing to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), temperatures in the subregion have risen by over 0.5°C over the last 100 years. It is widely accepted, based on findings from modelling future climate patterns, that the subregion’s cli-mate will become hotter and drier. Clicli-mate modellers indicate a further increase of mean temperatures between 2°C and 4.5°C in the next 50 to 100 years. Such tem-perature rises are expected to be greater in the summer than in the winter seasons.

The subregion has also experienced a downward trend in rainfall. This has been char-acterized by below-normal rainfalls and frequent droughts. Although projections of future rainfall are subject to considerable uncertainty, most projections based on global circulation models indicate that rainfall will be reduced for much of the region in winter. Beside volumes, precipitation patterns are also expected to change in intensity and frequency, resulting in more extreme events and longer periods between rainfalls.

As average temperatures rise worldwide, the water cycle is being affected through in-creased evaporation and changing precipitation patterns. More intense and frequent storms, combined with increased run-off, are leading to more frequent flooding.

Climate-related floods pose a serious threat to national economies and sustainable development. Southern Africa is one of the five regions in the world exposed to seri-ous risk of flooding in coastal and deltaic areas.

At the same time, water scarcity is also intensified through disrupted rainfall pat-terns, increased evaporation loss and increased water demand in all sectors. Drought-prone areas of Namibia, Botswana, and Zimbabwe are likely to be more vulnerable to climate change than the more humid areas of Tanzania or Zambia. In its Fourth Assessment Report, the IPCC has concluded that there is a 90 per cent probability that the extent of drought-affected areas will increase.

Observers argue that appropriate responses range from purely technological responses such as sea defences and early-warning systems, to managerial responses such as modifying farming techniques and practices, to policy responses including the regulation of green-house gas emissions, land use, and so on. Global arrangements for compensating lower polluters and organised markets for carbon trading are also options for supporting devel-oping and least-developed countries in Africa and mitigating the effects of climate change.

On the contrary, it should be noted that an overbearing push for use of green technolo-gies on the global forum may be a barrier to trade in SADC and for African countries in general. According to Collier & Venables (2012), at first glance Africa appears well-suited for green energy as it has plenty of sunshine, water, land and forests, all of which confer significant advantages as it is a latecomer to environmental degradation. However, because energy-generation, energy-saving, and carbon-capture are intensive in capital, governance capacity and skills, all of which are lacking in Africa, the advantages conferred by natural endowments are offset.

Figure 6.8: Rainfall variability and GDP growth in Zimbabwe (1979-1993)

Source: adopted from SADC (2011)