Future scenarios

All social actors perceive that Alumysa can drastically influence the future development of the region. At the same time, there is contradictory information about the impacts of the implementation of the plan that makes the adoption of a decision more difficult¹⁴.

Then, three future scenarios on the regional future are built in order to tackle the uncertain consequences of: a) to continue with the current activities and trends, b) to construct the industrial complex in Chacabuco bay, or c) to change Alumysa’s location at least 100 kilometres to the south-west.

The scenarios are projected for the next ten years, basically because of the available information on the activities’ estimates, and also to avoid uncertainties associated with long-term predictions. The whole period was divided in two phases, five years to construct the Alumysa’s infrastructures and the first five years of its operation. This task is mainly done relying upon Gallopin et al. (1997)’s guidelines for scenario construction.

Table 4 presents an overview of the scenarios.

14 On the one hand, the Alumysa’s EIA says that the environmental impact of the Fluorine emissions will be low, because they won't reach the limits allowed by the Swiss environmental laws (In Chile the Fluorine emissions are not regulated, so that, the evaluation for the possible impacts of the Fluorine emissions in the Alumysa’s EIA is based on the Swiss law. It is important to note that in Switzerland there aren't aluminium smelter plant as big as Alumysa, and this law establishes the limits according to the production levels). On the other hand, a study required to Grupo Ambiental Consultores by SalmonChile stands that the projected emission levels will produce incompatibility between the aluminium plant and the salmon farming activities, due basically to the Fluorine emissions levels.

Table 4: Overview of the scenarios

Scenario E1 Scenario E2 Scenario E3

Basis for the

· Preliminary results of the Territorial Ordering Program

· Projections of the enterprises acting in the region

· Information obtained in the participatory phase

· Preliminary results of the Territorial Ordering Program

· Alumysa's EIA

· Information obtained in the participatory phase

· Preliminary results of the Territorial Ordering Program

· Projections of the enterprises acting in the region

· Alumysa's EIA

· Information obtained in the participatory phase

Description Business as Usual, with high development of the fishing sector, especially aquaculture, with a growth rate of 10% in the next 15 years (50% of the production comes from Aysén commune).

Optimistic projections for fly fishing, canals navigation and eco-tourism. Mostly in Coyhaique and Puerto Aysén surroundings, and promising perspectives for clean food production. Craft fishing is limited by the quota restriction as well as mining by high transport and energy costs (something that has

characterized this activity the last years).

Construction of Alumysa project in Chacabuco Bay, 15 kilometres from Puerto Aysén.

From the fifth year, it is considered a complete displacement of the salmon farming and processing activities from the surroundings of the plant will take place ^A.

Possible impact over Chacabuco bay as the main tourist maritime entrance to the region. Also, some tourist zones will be flooded.

Craft fishing could see two of the four regional fleets affected by the construction of the Alumysa pier in Cuervo River outlet, one of the main fish recruitment points (Merluza Australis).

Reduction in electricity costs and port infrastructure could impel the mining activity.

Construction and commerce a favoured by the reduction in transport costs and population rise.

This is a combination of the previous ones.

Construction of Alumysa 100 kilometres to the South-West of Chacabuco Bay. In this way, the salmon farming activity remain as today ^B.

Fly-fishing and eco-tourism can be affected in the flooded areas, but also the project might provoke damage on the image of the region (purity).

Craft fishing could see two of the four regional fleets affected by the construction of the Alumysa pier in Cuervo River outlet, one of the main fish recruitment points (Merluza Australis).

Construction and commerce would be impelled, but less than in scenario E2, due to the far location of the plant. And mining could get the unused electric power capacity of Alumysa.

Scenario E1 Scenario E2 Scenario E3 Jobs

characteristics

- Aquaculture sector will create near 20.000 jobs in ten years (75% in the Aysén commune)

- Mostly seasonal and unstable (from tourism and

aquaculture)

- Medium/Low qualification required.

- Low/medium salaries considering the high cost of life in the region.

- High amount of jobs in the Alumysa construction phase (up to 8.000 jobs in the 36^th month). People from the region would occupied nearly 20% of them ^C.

- 1.100 permanent jobs are offered in the operation phase, and people from outside the region would take almost 70% of the jobs (CH2MHILL, 2001).

- Medium/High qualified jobs in general.

- Possible labour migration from the salmon farming sector to a better waged work (construction and commerce)

- Alumysa jobs remains as scenario E2.

Supporters · Alliance for Aysén

· Citizen committee

· Civic committee

· SalmonChile

· Regional Tourism Chamber

· Municipality of Puerto Aysén

· Municipality of Coyhaique

· Municipality of Puerto Aysén

· Municipality of Coyhaique

· Communal unions

· SOFOFA (Industrial Promoting Society)

↑ Increasing trend → Constant trend↓ Decreasing trend Note: The number of arrows indicates the intensity of the trend.

A Representatives of the salmon-farming sector. Personal communications

B Rodrigo Infante, General Manager of Asociación de la Industria del Salmón de Chile A.G. (Chilean Salmon Farming Industry Association-SalmonChile), to the newspaper El Divisadero. October 30^th, 2002.

C Representatives of the construction sector. Personal communications