Security
Stranded power capacity
Power not supplied
Interconnection capacity
Cost of energy (tariffs)
Energy system planning Market
organization and regulation Demand side
management (efficiency) Fuel,
resources input supply stability Diversity of tech,
entities
Generation adequacy
Table 7.
Electricity supply security framework dimensions, indicators, measurement, risks and resilience factorsSecurity
Factor Indicators Measurement Monitoring
and Evaluation Risks Resilience Building
Fuel,
year generation was reduced from average, or stopped, due to fuel input shortage
Assess the effect of input fuels on generation and compile periodic report
Limited/no national strategic reserve for fuels
Limited/no power plant-level fuel stocking
Increased intermittency in renewable
Institute national strategic reserve for fuels
Establish plant level fuel stocking
Strengthen
year generation was reduced from average, or stopped, due to fuel input shortage index of generation sources - measured as sum of generation share of each technology squared reliance on hydro generation
Limited generation technology
Participation of few players in generation
Prioritise generation diversification in planning
Develop national atlas of energy resources and their power output potential
Enable
participation of the private sector in generation
Establish grid accessibility through FiT and, where appropriate, index of generation players - measured as sum of generation share of each generation company squared
Update national database on the number of players
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Security
Factor Indicators Measurement Monitoring
and Evaluation Risks Resilience Building
Generation
Percent reserved reliably available spinning generation capacity by generation source
Compile data on reserve capacity and
prepare report Insufficient spinning reserve
Demand growth faster than supply
Limited capacity expansion to meet unserved demand
Longer lead time to develop generation
Incrementally prepare peak load forecast for 2 years ahead delay sources and pursue required reforms
Capacity to meet peak demand
Loss of load expectation (LOLE) - measured as number of hours/year available generation capacity will not meet peak load demand energy (EUE) - measured as MWh/year that will not be supplied due to generation capacity limits
Estimate and share the cost of unserved
MW/year of available energy not evacuated due to transmission and distribution network
Insufficient grid investment to cost of energy due to deemed power
Clarify
responsibilities of developer and off-taker on grid investment for
Prioritise system upgrade in hot spot areas
Integrated loss factor (one minus the ratio of electricity sales to electricity supplied to the grid)
Insufficient action to reduce system losses
Establish mandate for max allowable integrated system Reader for bulk consumers
Security
Factor Indicators Measurement Monitoring
and Evaluation Risks Resilience Building
Number of cross-border interconnections
Facilitate long-term establishment of a regional regulator
Leverage regional markets to finance investment in
export capacity on each interconnection
US$ cents/kWh by type of user
Review regulator decision on tariffs by end user
Urgency and bringing-in expensive technology
Sustained system inefficiency
Contract negotiation gaps
Continued supply deficiency
Lag in needed investment
Implementation delays
Cost of generating, evacuating and distributing energy (including losses) (US$
cents/kWh)
Number of months between assessment date and the last energy system national plan (or its revision) date use of standard planning tools
Urgency, emergency, and short-term planning
Institute periodic system planning, as the International Atomic Energy
Number of professionals with training or
expertise in energy system planning planning tools and their utilisation (demand and supply management,
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Security
Factor Indicators Measurement Monitoring
and Evaluation Risks Resilience Building
Market
Number of operating generation, transmission
Functional vertical integration of power sector
Insufficient regulatory capacity
Enable continued electricity market reform in the EAC
Continued implementation of EAC regional electricity master largely advisory to enforcing entities
Number of enforcement measures taken/year Number of system performance standard
Total energy saved per year from industrial, household, institutional and public service energy efficiency
Request national bureau of standards to establish efficiency standards in high impact areas
Consider allowable maximum for demand side measures Power
rationing
Number of times per year electricity rationing is implemented
Average duration (Number of hours) of electricity supply during power rationing
4.7. Policy actions to enhance oil and gas supply security
Table 8.
Policy Actions to enhance electricity supply security in Partner States of the EACEnergy Security Factor Key areas Policy actions
Fuel, resources input supply stability
Non-renewable fuel input (diesel, coal, gas, etc.) supply stability
Work with thermal generation plants to establish operational fuel stocks to minimise fuel input-induced electricity supply security challenges
With the Ministry and Agencies overseeing water resources, strengthen hydro systems modelling and forecast to support generation planning
Plan for high intermittency energy resource inputs through reliable base load
Anticipate and integrate into generation planning climate change effects
Renewable energy resource inputs (water, wind, etc.) supply stability
Diversity of tech and entities
Diversity of generation technologies
Prioritise, in generation planning and implementation, diversification.
Consider establishing non-traditional generation sources share through such instruments as Renewables Portfolio Standards (RPS) policy beyond hydro
Undertake national assessments of power output potential from energy resources and integrate into long-term generation development planning
Expand grid accessibility to investors through FiT, PPA and potentially net metering provisions
Diversity of generation players
Generation adequacy
Generation spinning
reserve Plan generation capacity long-term expansion with at least 10% built-in spinning reserve margin
Gradually institute dynamic generation expansion plan to meet at least 2 years ahead peak load forecast
Pursue cross-sectoral reforms in key areas of lengthy delay for energy projects implementation (such as land use)
Capacity to meet peak demand
Unserved energy need (cost of unserved energy need)
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Energy Security Factor Key areas Policy actions
Stranded power capacity
Locked-in generation capacity not evacuated
Prioritise the expansion and upgrade of grid infrastructure in stranded power hot spot areas
Clarify the responsibility of, and expectations on, investors in power evacuation
Coordinate generation and grid development planning to minimise power evacuation constraints
Energy not supplied
Integrated system power loss
Establish mandate for max allowable integrated system loss
Scale-up prepaid electricity credit system
Scale-up automated metre reader for bulk consumers
Strengthen monitoring and
enforcement capacity for commercial loss mitigation
Interconnection capacity Availability of
cross-border(s) interconnection Fast-track regional interconnection projects
Expand power import/export capacity
Promote long-term establishment of a regional regulator
Power import/
export capacity of interconnection
Cost of energy Cost of energy for end users
Develop and implement least cost generation plans
Strengthen contract negotiation capacity in energy institutions
Enable investment of the private sector in the energy sector
True cost of energy
Energy system planning capacity
Duration of energy system planning
Institute the conduct of periodic energy system planning, and review implementation
Invest in institutional energy planning capacity and bridge global partnerships to adopt planning instruments and tools
Institutional capacity - human capital
Institutional capacity - planning tools and utilisation
Energy Security Factor Key areas Policy actions
Market organisation and regulation
Degree of electricity
market openness Pursue continued electricity market reform in the EAC
Implementation of the EAC regional electricity master plan
Strengthen the independence and enforcement capacity of regulators Enforcement capacity
in regulatory functions
Demand side
management Energy efficiency
Launch and strengthen a national industrial, institutional and household energy efficiency improvement initiative
Request national bureau of standards to establish energy efficiency standards for appliances and renewable energy technologies
Consider establishing allowable maximum integrated system power distribution loss mandate
Power rationing
EAC ENERGY SECURITY POLICY FRAMEWORK