Chapter 3. Dualism, Welfare State, and the Populist Radical Right
3.3 Concluding remarks
In this chapter, we addressed the labour market dimension behind the PRR vote. Given the exclusivist nature of the discourse of PRR parties, we hypothesised that labour market insiders who defend the welfare status quo against external threats are overrepresented in these parties. Specifically, we expected this effect to be strongest in countries with Bismarckian types of welfare state and lower unionisation rates, amongst those individuals at higher risk of labour market vulnerability, who belonged to the manual and service working classes, and especially in those labour segments facing an apparently tougher competition for jobs. We used a large survey dataset (ESS) covering eight rounds over fourteen years to model voting behaviour of the PRR within European countries.
The findings can be summarised in four points. First, we found that, on average, labour market insiders tend to be overrepresented amongst voters of PRR parties across Europe. While the magnitude of the effect we found is rather small and suggests that this divide is not a decisive element of the PRR vote, the results confirmed our expectations. Second, and trying to at least approach the mechanism behind these results, we found that those insiders facing combined higher levels of non-native workers and unemployment within their occupations and countries duplicated their probability of voting for PRR parties compared to both insiders facing lower levels and outsiders facing any levels.
At the same time, we established that it is (manual and service) working class insiders (especially low-skilled) who display a clearer inclination to vote for PRR parties. Third, we observed that in countries with Bismarckian types of welfare states the voters of PRR tend to be more insiders than in countries with universalistic types of welfare states (i.e. North European countries, where the result is either non-significant as it happens for Sweden and Finland, or outsiders are the overrepresented group, as is the case for Denmark and Norway). This is because insiders in Bismarckian types of welfare state have more to lose. Fourth, we checked that there are some preliminary indications of union presence mitigating the link between insiders and the PRR within a given country.
The general picture left by the data is one that at the same time confirms and expands former research (particularly Rovny and Rovny 2017) and, simultaneously opens up the space for further research. It does so by departing from the apparent fact that insiders who face tougher labour market conditions (due to either personal or structural reasons) are more likely to vote for populist radical right parties. This might be an interestingly new, more nuanced line of research for those who defend the
‘economic anxiety’ argument to explain PRR vote; one that does not try to pitch itself against cultural or identity-related arguments, but that instead considers the phenomenon as necessarily complex and multi-causal.
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