diver-sification and structural
transformation vigorously
in order to reduce
vulner-ability to external shocks.
some setbacks with divergent short-term policy objectives among the major world economies recently, pointing to the benefits of injecting a development dimension to global rebalancing. This implies an important role for Africa, complementary to its ambition to become a global growth pole.
Before it can realize this ambition, however, Africa needs to meet growth and structural transformation imperatives (chapter 3), address constraints in infrastructure, technol-ogy, human resources and governance (chapter 4), and mobilize and apply financial resources more effectively (chapter 5).
1.9 Conclusions and policy recommendations
The woRld economy is entering a period full of uncertainties and challenges. In the short term, the euro area sovereign debt crisis might push the global economy into another prolonged and deep recession or slow global growth, at steep social cost. High unemployment and ris-ing food and energy prices have already widened income inequality and stirred up widespread discontent and social instability around the planet. The failure of developed-country governments to provide long-lasting solutions to correct global imbalances deepens the malaise.
Africa is not immune to the global crisis, though it is now in a much better position to deal with external shocks. The expected global economic slowdown may well cut demand for its commodity exports, reduce prices and thus hurt its export revenues, but increased output alongside its gradual moves to diversify its exports—as well as recently improved intraregional trade—can help the continent to better weather adverse global developments. ODA shortfalls could threaten many aid-dependent African countries’ social development programmes, but could also encourage the continent to mobilize more domestic resources and reduce over-dependence on foreign finan-cial assistance.
In view of these risks and challenges, African govern-ments should implement growth-supportive macroeco-nomic policies in the short run, while adopting long-term
development perspectives. To be more specific, they should increase their investments in programmes such as edu-cation, health and infrastructure that can enhance their economies’ long-term growth potential in the bounds of their fiscal space. Monetary policy needs to be accom-modative to support growth, but must be combined with income policies to provide a minimum social security cushion for the weakest groups in society, so as to con-solidate the achievements in reducing poverty over the last decade.
In the long term, Africa’s governments need to pursue economic diversification and structural transformation vigorously in order to reduce vulnerability to external shocks, such as the euro debt crisis or volatility in com-modity prices. Moreover, African countries must con-tinue to diversify their export destinations and expand economic partnerships, including those with new devel-opment partners, while deepening intra-African trade and investment.
Crucially, African countries can grow faster by unleashing their productive potential—by aggressively investing in infrastructure and human capital, and by promoting good governance (chapter 4). This will require strong political leadership and a firm institutional framework to fulfil the broad, transformative long-term agenda.
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Notes
1 The appreciation trend reversed in the last quarter of 2011 and currencies depreciated against the dollar in most LAC countries.
2 The 12th ILO African Regional Meeting stressed the urgency of the high youth unemployment problem in Africa and emphasized that it should be addressed through demand and supply measures.
3 In the first quarter of 2011, the euro area government debt ratio was 86.7 per cent of GDP, with Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal, Germany and France at 149.6 per cent, 119.9 per cent, 102.7 per cent, 94.0 per cent, 82.5 per cent and 84.4 per cent, respectively (Eurostat, 2011).
Italy’s government bond yield went over 7 per cent in November 2011, a dangerous level for fiscal sustainability.
4 China revised its end-2010 gross general government debt ratio up to 34 per cent in 2011. China had earlier been thought of as among those with the lowest government debt, but approached group average after this revision (IMF, 2011e). The asset bubble in China aroused concerns over its local government debt, and the huge fiscal stimulus introduced to counter the crisis may have increased State-owned banks’
vulnerability (IMF, 2011f).
5 The figure was under the assumption of 3.8 per cent global growth.
In another IEA scenario of 2.6 per cent 2011–2012 global growth, which is close to ours, the global oil demand in 2011 was 89.0 mb/d. In 2012, it is expected to arrive at 89.3 mb/d.
6 Authors’ calculations based on IEA (2011a).
7 The Rio+20 Summit scheduled for mid-2012 will shed light on energy investments in developing countries in the context of the green economy (United Nations, 2010).
8 The Chicago Board Options Exchange Gold ETF Volatility Index went up sharply in August 2011 and remained high, suggesting concerns over global growth prospects.
9 Africa’s intraregional trade has improved a little (section 2.3).
10 ODA figures and discussion in this paragraph are mainly from UN-DESA (2011).
11 OECD (2011a) presents four scenarios in resolving the sovereign debt crisis. The baseline scenario outlines an orderly default. In the downside scenario, disorderly defaults could happen, but do not mean the breakup of the euro area (the worst-case scenario, not shown).
The upside scenario relies on major compromises and political breakthroughs among euro area countries, but has a relatively low probability.
12 The following trade analysis relates to Africa’s merchandise trade only, as exports of commercial services were no more than 14 per cent of merchandise exports (by value) in 2010.
13 Section 2.3 discusses Africa’s export composition by period.
14 The current and capital accounts are the two sides of a country’s balance of payments, which by definition must balance. A current account deficit, for example, means that the country must sell its assets or borrow to buy goods and services abroad.
33
CHAPTER
afTeR a decade of impressive economic growth, Africa’s momentum slowed in 2011, weighed down by contraction of economic activity in North Africa due to political unrest there, and the lingering indirect effects of the 2007-2009 global economic and financial crises in developed countries.
Many African countries are, though, sustaining strong impetus, supported by rising commodity prices and by strong domestic demand (owing to growing incomes and improving economic and political governance). Growth prospects remain optimistic, with output for the con-tinent as a whole expected to recover strongly in 2012.
The growth momentum is expected to continue in the medium term.
African economies might, however, be affected by the EU debt crisis and any subsequent deterioration in the global economic environment on several fronts, particu-larly through trade and capital flows. Africa is neverthe-less poised to weather such risks and uncertainties. For more than a decade, the continent has deepened domestic sources of growth, and has strengthened both intra-trade and trade with faster growing economies in Asia and Latin America – away from Europe. This would help Africa mitigate the growth impact of a possible decline in trade with, and capital inflows from, the euro area.
Despite the acceleration of economic growth in Africa over the past decade, however, Africans’ welfare has generally
failed to improve. Social indicators have picked up only modestly, but with unemployment, particularly among youth, remaining stubbornly high, while income inequali-ties have widened. This disconnect between growth and social welfare requires policy actions on many fronts, including a focus on accelerating economic transforma-tion in the key sectors that hold the greatest potential for jobs—such as agriculture, services and manufacturing.
This chapter, after discussing the trends and sources of Africa’s recent economic performance, reviews devel-opments in the continent’s international trade and the impact of growth on poverty. It then presents recent so-cial developments and discusses why economic growth has not been associated with commensurate progress towards the MDGs. It ends by looking at Africa’s growth prospects for 2012.