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UNITED NATIONS
ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COUNCIL
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ECA/ACGDI AHEGMIGAMMl04
Original: English
ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR AFRICA
African Centre for Gender and Development (ACGD)
AN AD HOC EXPERT GROUP MEETING ON
A GENDER-AWARE MACROECONOMIC MODEL TO EVALUATE IMPACTS OF POLICIES ON POVERTY AND WELFARE IN AFRICA
14 - 15 September 2004 Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
FINAL REPORT
September 2004
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
Abbreviations and Acronyms 3
Introduction 4
Opening Session 5
Plenary I and 2: Presentation of the Gender-aware Model 6
Round Table Discussions II
Outcomes and Agreed Recommendations 11
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Closing RemarksList of Participants Programme of Work
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13 15 19
Abbreviations and Acronyms ABSA:
ADF:
BPA:
CHS:
CGE:
ERG:
ECA:
ESCAP:
GDP:
GEP:
GHP:
GMP:
GNP:
GRB:
GSB:
HP:
ICLS:
ILO:
MDGs:
NCAER:
NEPAD:
NSAHP:
NMW:
OECD:
PRS:
SAPs:
SNA:
SAM:
TUS:
UNDP:
UNSD:
Advisory Board for Statistics in Africa African Development Forum
Beijing Platform for Action Continuous Household Survey Computable General Equilibrium Easy Reference Guide
Economic Commission for Africa
Economic Commission for Asia and the Pacific Gross Domestic Product
Gross Economic Product Gross Household Product Gross Market Product Gross National Product Gender Responsive Budgets Gender Sensitive Budgets Household Production
International Conference of Labour Statisticians International Labour Organization
Millennium Development Goals
National Council of Applied Economic Research New Partnership for Africa's Development
National Satellite Accounts of Household Production Non-market Work
Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development Poverty Reduction Strategies
Structural Adjustment Programmes System of National Accounts Social Accounting Matrix Time-use Studies
United Nations Development Programme United Nations Statistics Division
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I. INTRODUCTION
1. The Ad- hoc expert group meeting on a gender-aware macroeconomic model for evaluating impacts of policies on poverty reduction, women and men's welfare was held on 14-15 September 2004 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia and organized by the African Center for Gender and Development (ACGD) of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA).
2. Mr. Alfred Latigo, Senior Economic Affairs Officer, ACGD presented the overall objectives of the ad-hoc expert group meeting as being as to review the model and the results of analysis of different policy variables to demonstrate how a gender-aware modeling exercise can be used to quantify the impacts of macroeconomic policy shocks upon men's and women's time allocation, poverty and welfare in Africa.
3. The meeting also considered how Continuous Household Surveys (CHS) that can generate cost effectively gender disaggregated database for constructing gender-aware model. The specific objectives of the meeting were to:
• review and consolidate a gender-aware CGE model in terms of:
o relevance for the analysis of questions of gender inequality and poverty;
o key assumptions to be used in building the proposed model;
o how the policies to be analyzed are presented in the model;
o the statistical test procedures for the model;
o choosing the level of disaggregation of the model to include gender perspectives and household production;
o approach used for evaluating results from the model.
• discuss and exchange experiences on best practices in gender-aware modelling;
• flag institutional and capacity constraints; and
• recommend actions for the way forward.
4. Asthiswasan "advisory expert group meeting",andtoallowforcandidand interactive dialogue, participation was limited to ten high level macroeconomic modeling experts comprising national policy analysts from six African countries and independent modelers from Africa, Australia, Canada and India.
5. The meeting was organized into two five sessions as per the attached work programme: opening session, two plenary sessions, one round table discussion and closing session.
Opening Session:
Plenary I& 2:
Round Table Discussion:
Closing Session:
Opening remarks, objectives and expected outcomes of the meeting
Consideration of the Model
Identifying lessons learnt, priorities and recommendations Presentation of agreed recommendations, way forward and closing remarks.
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II. OPENING SESSION
6. Ms. Josephine Ouedraogo, the Director of ACGD in her opening statement, on behalf of Mr. K.Y. Amoako, Executive Secretary of ECA extended her gratitude to the Advisory Expert Group whom she noted comprised of high-level experts from different parts of the world. She was particularly impressed about the commitment of the experts who devoted their valuable time at no fee to come over to advise ECA on gender aware model and the way forward for introducing it to African countries.
7. Ms. Ouedraogo, welcomed the advisory, expert group: Dr. Anushree Sinha, Dr.
Amos Ela Ela, Prof. Duncan Ironmonger, Prof. Bernard Decaluwe, Mr. Ismael Fofana, Dr. Mama Kearney, Prof. Alemayehu Geda, Mr. Besa Muwele, Dr. Nicodemus Rudaheranwa, Ms. Jane Kiringai and Mr. Ide- Souleiman Abdi.
8. Ms. Ouedraogo reminded the experts that the model, which ECA just developed, is the first one of its kind in Africa and that the concept of gender-aware modeling is new in the region.Itis therefore important to consider activities that would carefully establish its credibility and credentials to effectively get the attention of the decision makers and consolidate value added to growth and poverty reduction. She expressed special thanks to the experts from the Laval University, Canada especially, Prof. John Cockburn, Bernard Decaluwe and Mr. Ismael Fofana who diligently provided high quality technical support in developing the model in collaboration with ECA team.
9. In this regard, Ms. Ouedraogo commended her own team especially, Mr. Alfred Latigo and Mr. Omar I. Abdourahman, Economic Affairs Officers under whose coordination, this model was developed and the report on the model was prepared in collaboration with the experts from the University of Laval. She also thanked all members of ECA' s Interdivisional Working Group who one way or the other contributed at the conceptual stages of the development of the model. She particularly thanked Mr.Kwabia Boateng, Ms. Maite I. Lopez, Ms. Juliana Gouslaves and Mr. Patrick Osakwe who participated in the first ad-hoc expert group meeting that considered the proposal to develop the model.
10. Ms. Ouedraogo stressed that the objectives of the Expert Group meeting were highly relevant for current development efforts in Africa given that the model is intended to evaluate impacts of policies on the household economy, market economy and poverty reduction. And that, its focus is particularly relevant to the objectives of New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD) and the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), as it is now a requirement for African Governments to evaluate impacts of their policies on the welfare of their people for sound policy formulation.
II. The Director lamented that much as the production of services for own consumption by households is on an equal footing with the market economy in importance, existing macroeconomic frameworks including national accounts, budgets and policies are based on only market economy, which is known now to constitute just 50% of the total economy. She added that currently, macroeconomic analysis and modelling is carried out as if no differences existed between women and men.
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12. Ms. Ouedraogo recalled that over the past 30 years, Sub-Saharan Africa faced major macroeconomic shocks associated with among others, economic policy reforms, which have reduced women's output, restricted access to education, and have hindered women's ability to develop their human resources. She observed that while such gender- related development issues prompted serious debate, the absence of appropriate gender- aware macroeconomic analytical tools penalised quantitative analyses, and hence the impetus for ECA to develop a gender-aware model.
!3. Justifying the application of the gender-aware ECA model, Ms. Ouedraogo asserted that the above strong predictive results revealed from the policy simulations would not be noticed if the social accounting matrix and the model were not gender- disaggregated, and if household economy in macroeconomic framework were excluded.
She therefore urged the internationally acclaimed experts at the meeting to be constructive in reviewing the report on this model and to contribute to the implementation of the future modeling work programme.
14. Ms. Ouedraogo further affirmed that the development of national satellite accounts of household production and gender-aware social accounting matrix in the process of constructing the model, further show how we can now practically mainstream gender perspectives and household production in national accounts, budget and policies.
And that this is a direct contribution to the implementation of the strategic objectives and action plans of the Beijing Platform for Action and UN 1993 System of National Accounts.
15. Ms. Ouedraogo however cautioned the experts that the gender-aware model is by no means without problems. Like many other models, it can pose challenges for users of existing models. But that done in an intelligent and focused way and in the context of contemporary debates on policy issues, the rewards can be large as seen in the examples of the results generated from this model
III. Plenary I and II: Presentation of the Gender-aware ECA Macroeconomic Model
16. Dr. Anushree Sinha, Chief Economist, National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER), New Dehli, India facilitated this plenary, which comprised six presentations. In the first presentation, Mr. Alfred Latigo briefly introduced the presentation on"The Background to the Development ofthe Gender-aware ECA Model".
He drew the attention of the meeting on the summary on the background provided in the Part II of the Technical Report on the Gender-Aware Model for Evaluating Impacts of Policies on Poverty Reduction and Welfare: The Case for South Africa.
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17. Mr. Latigo informed that the gender-aware model ECA developed emanated from the medium-term sub-programme (2001 - 2005) being implemented by ACGD ofECA'.
The work aims to develop capacity in African countries to provide a unique value-added to current poverty reduction strategies using gender-aware national system of accounts (NSA) and national budgets a s entry points. The ECA sub-programme on Gender and Development was in turn prompted by a strong mandate of the United Nations General Assembly Resolution (1997) and the Beijing Platform for Action (1995) to mainstream gender perspectives of household production in national development plans.
18. To launch this programme, ACGD developed in 2001 a conceptual framework for mainstreaming gender perspectives into SNA and national budgets. The framework, which was validated by an Expert Group Meeting in May 2002, Yaounde, Cameroon and endorsed by African Policy makers in October 2002 in Johannesburg, South Africa, provides the basic knowledge for ACGD's strategy to support valuation and integration of household production including women's non-market work (NMW) in these planning instruments.
19. As a follow-up of the Yaounde Meeting, ECA engaged a consultant from September - October 2002 to undertake in African countries an inventory of existing sex- disaggregated data, gender-aware tools and capacity to mainstream gender perspectives in national planning instruments, and for evaluating fiscal policies. A major finding of the mission was that there is a critical lack in African countries of appropriate tools for engendering national planning instruments, and for evaluating impacts of fiscal policies.
20. Accordingly, ECA organized an Expert Group Meeting on 7-9 May 2003, in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia to specifically consider a country-specific gender-aware macroeconomic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which would guide ECA's member states in evaluating the impacts of their policies0 n women's welfare, economic growth and poverty reduction. The meeting noted that construction and application of such a model would pose several challenges, among which was the overwhelming lack of time use data and capacity at national and sub-regional levels for mainstreaming gender in these instruments.
21. Cognizant of these challenges, the meeting endorsed ECA's programme to develop a gender-aware CGE model since it offers the best tool to incorporate micro data (which could reflect Africa-specific cultural factors that influence household behaviour in the allocation of time) into national planning instruments for the analysis of gender perspectives of household production and services. A CGE model allows for disaggregation of data at the microeconomic level while being able to establish the link of effects at the microeconomic level of macroeconomic policies. Currently, there is little experience in alternative non-CGE models that can incorporate gender dimensions, hence the choice of a CGE model.
I ECA (2003) 7
22. The meeting made the following specific recommendations:
• As gender dimensions are not included in the existing standard CGE models, ECA would need to extend the accounting framework of the proposed model by:
o treating men and women as separate factors of production;
o treating household production and leisure as sectors, in addition to the usual market-economy sectors;
o adding extra information to the structure of the model a s a ppropriate including adoption of micro-simulation approach after the pilot phase.
• The proposed CGE model should be:
o simple and user-friendly to the governments who will use the model;
o cost-effective in terms of financial resources, human resources and time requirements for developing and maintaining it; and
o capable of handling indicators of different policy changes e.g. price changes on different groups of the society.
• In view of resource constraints, the model-building programme should proceed with an initial pilot study, the successful components of which will then be applied to other countries selected. Thus the development of the model should proceed in two stages:
pilot study and broader application.
• Broader Application of the model should involve: application of the model to wider range of countries; capacity strengthening; database development; policy analysis;
maintenance work (assuring continuity of capacity and database updating); link between non-African model-developing institutions and African institution(s); and building long-run indigenous capacity through training and model-based policy analysis.
23. Prof. Bernard Decaluwe later made a presentation entitled"Is a standard Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model important for integrating household economy and gender perspectives into macroeconomic frameworks]" He emphasized the following:
• Building CGE models requires a benchmark data set arranged into a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). A SAM is a square matrix in which each transactor or account has its own row and column. The payments (expenditures) are listed in columns and the receipts are recorded in rows. As the sum of all expenditures by a given account (or sub-account) must equal the total sum of receipts or income for the corresponding account, it follows that row sums must equal the column sums of the corresponding account.
• A gender-aware CGE model requires a SAM that integrates market activities, non-market production and consumption exclusive to households, and leisure time activities of its members.
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24. Prof. Decaluwe then outlined the analytical framework for engendering and extending a SAM as well as data issues. He added that to date no formal SAM integrated market and non-market activities disaggregated by gender has been published. Thus, the ECA work represents the first ever SAM that integrates satellite accounts of household production (Market and non-market activities by gender). The standard SAM normally presents labour account that is usually disaggregated by skill, region and! or other non- gender criteria. And that most standard CGE models make the implicitly assumption that male and female workers are perfect substitutes in market production, contrary to many studies which show that, this is not the case. However, in a gender-aware SAM, the labour accounts are disaggregated into male and female labour accounts. Workers receive income from services provided to industries in the form of wages; male and female wages then constitute labour income for household.
25. Prof. Decaluwe explained that building the ECA model involved incorporation of household production and leisure activities in the standard structure of the SAM using National Satellite Accounts of Household Production (NSAHP) for South Africa as suggested by the UN-System of National Accounts 1993 (SNA 1993) in the national accounts. And that integration of these accounts into a SAM based framework does not interfere with market activities. The NSAHP, which represent the first framework of its kind prepared in Africa, attempted to bring together for the first time market economy and household economy in a common framework to measure the contribution of household production to a national economy.
26. Mr. Latigo then briefly introduced the next item on "The Production And Use Gender Disaggregated Data From Time Use Surveys For Preparing National Time Accounts (NTA) and NSAHP". He explained that NTA are a set of estimate of total income and expenditure of time similar to the estimate of national income and expenditure, which account for our market transactions in monitory units. The framework is a set of accounts developed as an expanded version of the Household Sector of the 1993 SNA. And that it follows the general structure of the SNA but includes other transactions that are outside the SNA but still connected with the household economic activities. He said that the SNA generally recognizes that household production is part of economic activity.
27. Prof. lronmonger, then outlined three main purposes of National Time Accounts (NTA):
• They provide a more complete understanding of household than is available from accounts, which focus solely on the use of money;
• They provide a better understanding of the total economy, which comprises market production and non-market production; and
• They give a better basis for economic and social policy decisions than incomplete measurements, which concentrate solely on paid work in the market economy and do not take into account of gender division of work within the household.
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28. Prof. lronmonger explained that the purpose of NSAHP is to provide an overall picture of the productive activities undertaken by household and to give an estimate of the value of household production. And that the main purpose of the NSAHP is to obtain separate estimates of Gross Household Product (GHP)2, which can then be used to trace the joint evolution and interaction of the two, economies-the monetary Market Economy and the non-monetary Household Economy.
29. Both accounts can be derived from National Time Use studies or continuous household surveys (CHS)J.
30. Prof. Decaluwe and Ismael Fofana presented the "Gender-aware ECA Moder' based on the South African economy, the process of its construction from SAM and model specification. Prof. Decaluwe explained that after building an extended gender- aware SAM the next important step is to review and select stylized and macroeconomic policies, which are relevant to a given national to be tested in the model. On this basis the model is constructed followed by conducting policy simulation for South Africa. He also explained that the SAM built by Statistics South Africa (1998) was used for constructing the model because it provided all the data by gender, occupation and household categories in market activities as well as leisure time.
31. Prof. Decaluwe explained that after building the gender-aware model experiments (simulations) were conducted with the model using selected fiscal policy variables to determine the changes in macroeconomic outcomes. That is women's and men's time use, wage rate income and poverty. He explained that the simulation involved the elimination of all import tariffs where government revenue is maintained constant through a n endogenous u nifonn increase in direct income taxes. And those alternative compensatory tax mechanisms - sales tax, value-added tax, etc. - could also be examined. The simulations trace the impacts of this shock as it channels through import prices and the resulting sectoral reallocation of production and inputs, factor price adjustments, household income, consumer prices and, finally, household welfare. The analysis is initially based on a c ore model in which there are no gender aspects. This serves as a reference case to which we compare the successive introduction of three models: (i) a decomposition of labor by gender; (ii) endogenous labor supply and leisure demand; and (iii) domestic work activities.
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"GrossHousehold Product (GUP) is the total economic value addedbyhouseholds in household production (Eisner, 1989; Ironmonger, 1996).
::",-Continuous household surveys (CHS) are national studies of a representative sample covering a few thousand households conducted every six months, rather than every month as they are in most developed countries, with a sample size notmorethan 5,000 households per country. The data could be used to update the estimates of the nation- wide surveys to understand the short-term dynamics between the household economy and the market economy over the fluctuations of the business cycle, as well as to generatfcpender-disaggregated data for constructing gender-aware macroeconomic models.
32. The simulation yielded the following important results:
• Elimination of import tariffs in South Africa would reduce real wages for women by more than double that of the male counter parts.
• Elimination0 ftariffs would also reduce labour market participation by women while increasing that for men.
• Trade liberalization would increase time burden on women in that they will spent roughly three times as much time in household production as men.
33. Prof. Decaluwe concluded that all the above strong results would go unnoticed if the SAM and the model were not gender disaggregated.
34. Dr. Sinha, made some observation on the new ECA gender-aware model. She commended the Larval University and ECA for developing the model and underscored the importance of gender-aware models in analyzing gender differences in policy advice, design and implementation to ensure gender equality and poverty reduction. She emphasized that without such gender analysis policy decisions will be based on untested assumptions, greatly causing high risk on welfare. And that through modeling, women's contribution to the economy can be spelt out and that scare resources can there by be allocated for improving women's welfare. She gave five benefits of using a gender-aware CGE model for such analysis:
• can be used to decompose the effect of policy changes
• can be evaluate policy packages in a systematic fashion
• can assist in policy formulation by allowing comparison across computable policy combinations
• can be used to track the distribution of policy consequences and choices
• can be used for poverty analysis by formulating poverty indicators into the CGE framework.
IV. Round Table Discussions
35. "The Round Table discussions", which followed was facilitated by Prof.
lronmonger, and focused on future modeling work in five other African countries represented at the meeting. The discussion begun by recapping earlier deliberations on the development and testing of the gender-aware ECA model in the light of how this initiative will be replicated to other African countries. Each of the countries represented namely: Cameroon, Djibouti, Kenya, South Africa, Uganda and Zambia presented an overview of the on-going working and future activities related to generation of gender disaggregated data as well as gender-aware modeling work in their countries.
V. Outcome and Agreed Recommendations
36. The following were the outcome and recommendations of the meeting presented to Mr. K.Y. Amoako, the Executive Secretary, ECA by one of the Rapporteurs, Ms.
Mama Kearney.
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Outcome
• The meeting recognized the pioneering work ofECA in Africa in the development of the Household Input-Output Table - National Satellite Accounts of Household Production (NSAHP), gender-aware Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) and gender- aware macroeconomic model.
• The development of these tools for the first time in Africa has brought together household economy and market economy in a common macroeconomic framework, clearly quantifying and making visible the contribution of women to national economy.
• The development of NSAHP and gender-aware SAM further demonstrate success in mainstreaming gender perspectives and household production in national accounts, budget and policies. This is a direct contribution to the implementation of the strategic objectives and action plans of the Beijing Platform for Action (1995) and UN 1993 System of National Accounts (1993 SNA).
• The policy simulations from the model demonstrated the differential impacts of economic policy of reforms on the income distribution and welfare of women and men in South Africa.
Agreed Recommendations
• Given the urgent need for gender-disaggregated data, Continuous Household Surveys should be introduced in initially six African countries with time use component.
• Not with standing the data constraints, the modelling work should continue as planned in the ACGD programme in six African countries beginning with the continuation on the first phase in South Africa and in Cameroon. The other four countries will be selected after a quick inventory and negotiation with the following countries, Kenya, Uganda, Zambia, Madagascar, Benin, Guinea, Ghana, Rwanda, Botswana, Nigeria, Djibouti and Sudan.
• The modelling work in the six countries should be completed by December 2005 with the technical support of the University of Laval, Canada, and National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER), India. The University of Melbourne, Australia will explore the possibility of providing technical assistance and sourcing funds for generating the urgently needed gender-disaggregated data through continuous household surveys in initially six countries.
• ECA should strengthen the analytical capacity through modelling of ACGD's Policy Analysis and Advocacy Programme with the assistance of the University of Laval, Canada, National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) and the University of Melbourne, Australia. This capacity building programme should be extended to the African countries, which will participate in the modelling work.
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37. Later, Prof. Bernard Decaluwe, a member of the University of Laval experts who provided technical support for the development of the model stressed the importance of gender-aware modelling in addressing policy reform issues on men's and women's time allocation, poverty and welfare. He emphasized that the above strong results would go unnoticed if the social accounting matrix and the model were not gender-disaggregated using household input-output table. He assured Mr. Amoako that the University of Laval would continue to provide technical assistance to ECA in extending the modelling work to other African countries and building the capacity of ACGD's Policy Analysis and Advocacy Programme in modelling. Prof. Decaluwe has been involved in macroeconomic modelling for the last 25 years.
38. Prof. Duncan lronmonger, Director of Household Economics Unit at the University of Melbourne, Australia and a member of the Expert Group meeting expressed gratitude to ECA for involving him as a member of the team that developed ECA's Guidebook on Mainstreaming Gender Perspectives and Household Production in National Accounts, Budgets and Policies in Africa, as well as in the development of the gender- aware model. He stressed that for the just developed gender-aware ECA model to be introduced in all African countries, gender-disaggregated data must be generated by these countries regularly, cost-effectively and preferably every six months to allow information on household economy to be used alongside with that on market economy, which is produced quarterly. Prof. lronmonger informed that regular gender-disaggregated data can only be generated every six months through use of Continuous Household Surveys, which are based on representative sample of 2000 - 5000 households per country and that it is cost-effective and generates more accurate data than the currently used time use surveys, which are normally conducted every 5 years. He assured Mr. Amoako that the University of Melbourne would continue to collaborate with ECA in advancing this innovative approach in data generation and gender-aware modelling.
39. Dr. Anushree Sinha, Chief Economist of India's National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER), New Delhi thanked ECA for involving her in its programme on gender-aware modeling since its inception three years ago. She assured Mr. Amoako that her institute in collaboration with other institutions would continue to support ECA in this important work.
VI. Closing Remarks
40. In his closing remarks, Mr. K.Y. Amoako thanked the experts of the University of Laval for providing high quality technical support in developing the gender-aware ECA macroeconomic model. He further thanked all the experts present for taking their time in attending the expert group meeting and for being able to critically review the report on the model as well as for coming up with concrete recommendations for the way forward.
4I. The Executive Secretary congratulated Ms. Josephine Ouedraogo and Mr. Alfred Latigo for taking the initiative and working hard to develop this very important analytical tool. He also thanked members for the ECA's Inter-divisional Working Group on gender mainstreaming in national accounts, budget and policies for participating in the discussions on the model.
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42. Mr. Amoako assured the experts that as an economist, he understands and attaches great importance to the modeling work and as such he has been following this programme very closely since its inception. He underscored the importance of including the results generated form this model in ECA's African Governance Report (AGR), which would be launched at the African Development Forum (ADF) in October 2004. He added that the results0fthis model actually represent key features 0f governance. He further noted that the modeling work including the production of gender disaggregated data directly relate to the work advocated for by the African Statistics Forum as well as the Advisory Board for Statistics in Africa (ABSA).
43. In his conclusion Mr. Amoako, assured the experts that, he will continue to support the modeling work financially as the model is introduced in other African countries during Phase II of the programme in 2005. In this regard, he urged ACGD to immediately prepare a project brief outlining the following:
• specific number of countries where the gender-aware model will be extended;
• human resources and financial resources required; and
• plan of work including time frame for generating gender-disaggregated data and the modeling work.
44. Mr. Amoako once again thanked the experts and urged them to continue their professional support in this programme and wish them a safe journey to their respective countries.
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An Ad hoc Expert Group Meeting to Review a Gender-Aware Macroeconomic Model for Evaluating Impacts of Policies on
Poverty Reduction in Africa
(14-15 September 2004, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia)
No. Name Address
National Council of Applied Economic 1. Dr. Anushree Sinha National Council of Research (NCAER)
Principal Economist, Applied Economic II IP Estate, New Delhi 110002, India Gender-aware Research (NCAER) Tel: 91-11-23379861/63/65/66
Modelling Expert India Fax: 91-11-23370164
Email: asinha@ncaer.org
...
2. Dr. Amos Ela Ela P.O. Box 836International Freelance consultant Yaounde, Cameroon Consultant, CGE Cameroon Tel: (237) 997 93 48
Modelling Email: aelaela@yahoo.fr
3. Prof. Duncan University of Melbourne University of Melbourne, Australia
Ironmonger Australia 141 Leveson Street
Professor of North Melbourne, VIC 3051 Australia
Household Economics Tel: 61-3-93281948/61-3-83442131
and a Gender-aware Email: dsi@unimelb.edu.au
Modelling Expert
University of Laval 4. Prof. Bernard University of Laval Quebec, Canada
Decaluwe Canada Department of Economics
Principle Research Tel: 1-418-6565561
"- Economist, Gender- Fax: 00-1-1-418 6567798
aware Modelling Email: bdec@ecn.ulaval.ca
CIRPEE-PEP, De Seve 2246 5. Mr. Ismael Fofana University of Laval Universite Laval
Research Economist, Canada Quebec, Quebec, GlK 7 P4, Canada
Gender-aware Tel: (418) 656-2131
Modelling Fax: (418) 656-7798
E-mail: ifofanaeijecn, ulaval.ca or foissameshotrnail.corn
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6. Dr. Mama Keamey National Treasury, National Treasury, Ministry of Finance Director, Economy- Ministry of Finance Private Bag XI15
Wide Policy South Africa Pretoria 0001, 240 Vermeulen Street
Modelling Tel: 012-315-5006
National Treasury Fax: 012-325-1048
Email:
mama.Keamey@treasury.gov.za
7. Prof. Alemayehu Geda University of Addis Ababa Faculty of Business and Economics
Professor of Ethiopia Addis Ababa University (AAU)
Macroeconomics. P.O.Box 9086
CGE Modelling Expert Tel: 09-24 99 26
Email: ag@telecom.net.et
8. Mr. Besa Muwele Central Bureau of Central Bureau of Statistics Head of National Statistics P.O. Box: 31908, Lusaka, Zambia
Accounts Zambia Tel: 260-1253468/1253682
Fax: 260-2154468
E-mail: bumwele@hotmail.com bumuleeszamstats.cov.zm 9. Dr. Nicodemus Economic Policy Research Economic Policy Research Centre
Rudaheranwa Centre (EPRC) (EPRC)
Senior Research I Uganda P.O.Box 7841
Fellow, CGE Kampala-Uganda
Modelling Programme, Tel: 256-41-541234/541023/4
Uganda Fax: 256-41-541022
Email: rudaheranwa@eprc.or.ug
10. Ms. Jane Kiringai Institute for Public Policy Kenya Institute for Public Policy
Assistant Policy (KIPPRA) (KIPPRA)
Analyst, CGE Kenya P.O Box 56445 - 00200
Modelling Nairobi
Tel: 254-20316243
Email: Kiringai@kippra.or.ke
II. Mr. Ide-Souleiman Minister de ]" Economic, Minister de I" Economic, des Finances Abdi des Finances et de la et de la Plonification
Economist in-charge Plonification Charge de la Priviatisation of macroeconomic Djibouti Tel: 00-253-82 0524
modeling. Email: ide abdi@hotmail.com
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1. Ms. Josephine EthiopialECA Economic Corrnnission for Africa
Ouedraogo P.O. Box 3001
Director, ACGD Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Tel: (251-1-) 511263 Fax: (251-1-) 512785
Email: jouedraogo@uneca.org Economic Corrnnission for Africa 2. Mr. Alfred Latigo EthiopialECA P.O. Box 3001
Senior Economic Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Affairs Officer, Tel: 251-1-443445
ACGD Fax: 251-1-512785
Email: alatigo@uneca.org
.-. Mr.OmarIsmael Economic Commission for Africa,
~ 3. Ethi opialEC A
Abdourahman, P.O. Box 3001
Economic Affairs Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Officer, ACGD Tel: 251-1- 443429
EmaiI: oabdourahman(cv'uneca.org
4. Mr.Sylvain Maliko Cameroon /SRO-CA Senior Economic
Affairs Officer, SRO- CA
Economic Commission for Africa, SRO-CA, P.O.Box 836
Economic Affairs Officer SRO-CA, Yaounde, Cameroon Email: sma1iko@uneca.org
5. Mr.Patrick Osakwe Economic Affairs Officer, TRIO
Ethiopia/Et"A Economic Commission for Africa P.O.Box 3001
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Tel: 251 -1 - 443409 Email: posakwe@uneca.org
6. Mr. Hassan M. Yousif SudanlECA Population Affairs
U
Officer/SOD17
Economic Commission for Africa r.O.Box 3001
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Tel: 251-1- 44 51 78 Email: hYOllsif@uneca.org
7. Ms. Juliane Gousalves Ethiopia! ECA Economic Commission for Africa
Economic Affairs P.O.Box 3001
Officer/ ESPD Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Tel: 251-1- 44 56 56
Email: igousalvesCtlJuneca.org
Economic Commission for Africa 8. Mr. Nassim Oulmane Ethiopia! ECA P.O.Box 3001
Economic Affairs Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Officer/ TRill Tel:251-1-443104
Email: oulmane@uneca.org
9. Ms. Dupasquier Ethiopia!ECA Economic Commission for Africa
Chantal P.O.Box 3001
Economic Affairs Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Officer/OPC Tel: 251-1- 445041
Email: cdupasquire@uneca.org
18
AN AD HOC EXPERT GROUP MEETING TO REVIEW A GENDER-AWARE MACROECONOMIC MODEL FOR EVALUATING IMPACTS OF POLICIES ON
POVERTY REDUCTION IN AFRICA
14-15 SEPTEMBER 2004, ADDIS ABABA, ETHIOPIA
ANNOTATED PROGRAMME OF WORK Day One: Tuesday 14 September 2004
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08:00-08:45 08:45-09:00
09:00-09: 30
09:30-10:30
10:30-10:45
Registration Agenda Item I:
Welcoming Remarks
(Ms. Josephine Ouedraogo, Director African Centre for Gender and Development (ACGD)
Agenda Item 2:
Objectives, Expected Outcome ofthe Meeting and Organization of Work (A. Latigo, Senior Economic Affairs Officer, ACGD)
Agenda Item 3:
Presentation ofOfficers and Adoption ofthe Agenda and Programme of Work
(A. Latigo) Tea/Coffee Break
PLENARY 1: PRESENTATION OF THE SOUTH AFRICAN GENDER- AWARE MACROECONOMIC MODEL
Facilitator: Dr. Anushree Sinha, Chief Economist, National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER), New Dehli, India.
10:45-11:15 Agenda Item 4:
Background to the Development of the South African Gender-aware Model (A. Latigo)
ACGD's focus is on mains/reaming gender perspectives in poverty reduction strategies using national accounts, budgets and policies as an entry point.
What is the goal and objectives ofthe programme?
What are the components ofthe programme relevanttothis meeting?
Where are we in the programme?
How importantis the modeling work to fulfilling the objectives of the New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD) and Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)?
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11:15-12:15
12:15-13:00
13:00-14:30 14:30-15:30
Agenda Item 5:
Is a standard Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model important for integrating household economy and gender perspectives into
macroeconomicframeworksProf. Bernard Decaluwe, Consultant Research Economist - gender-aware modeling, University of Laval, Quebec, Canada)
The general equilibrium models are macroeconomy wide models and are multi-agent, multi-commodity models. General equilibrium analysis has a strong theoretical grounding. With improvement in data collection and advances in computer technology and software, this has been increasingly used as an advanced methodology of applied policy work.
What is a CGE model?
What is the process in constructing a CGE model in terms of
o relevance for the analysis of questions of inequality and poverty;
o key assumptions to be used in building the proposed model;
o how the policies to be analyzed are presented in the model o In what circumstance do we need a CGE model?
o why should we look at gender perspectives and household economy in a macro context?
Discussion and Recommendations Agenda Item 6:
Presentation ofData Collected and Satellite Accounts ofHousehold Production for Constructing the South African Gender-aware Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) (Mr. Ismael Fofana and Prof.B.Decaluwe:
Consultants Research Economist - gender-aware modeling, University of Laval, Quebec, Canada)
As a first step in the building of a credible gender-aware macroeconomic model requires essential data including a staodard Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for preparing a National Time Accounts (NTA), an Input- Output Table (National Satellite Accounts of Household Production (NSAHP); an extended gender-aware SAM, which is the data base for a gender-aware model.
What are the different types, sources and uses of these data?
What are the challenges in obtaining these data?
Discussion aod Recommendations Lunch
Agenda Item 7:
Presentation of production and use of gender disaggregated data from 20
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15:30- 16:30
16:30-16:45 16.45-18:00
time use surveys for preparing National Time Accounts (NTA) and National Satellite Accounts of Household Production (NSAHP) (A.
Latigo and Prof. Duncan Ironmonger, Professor of Household Economics, and Director of Household Economics Unit, University of Melbourne, and Australia
National Time Accounts (NTA) are a set of estimates of our total income and expenditure of time, similar to the estimates of national income and expenditure, which account for our market transactions in monetary units, and NSAHP is a set of accounts developed as an expanded version of the Household Sector of the 1993 System of National Accounts (SNA).Itfollows the general structure of the SNA but includes other transactions that are outside the SNA but still connected with the household economic activities. The SNA generally recognizes that household production is a part of economic activity.
How are NTA and NSAHP derived?
How can a policy analyst use NTA and NSAHP for policy intervention?
Agenda Item 8:
Presentation ofthe South African gender-aware SAM: Specifications and Process for Revising the South African Standard SAM(Ismael Fofana and Prof. B. Decaluwe)
A SAM is considered as a database for constructing a macroeconomic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model and an extended gender- aware SAM including the NTA and NSAHP are considered a very important tool for bringing together for the first time in Africa market economy and household economy in a common framework to measure the contribution of women dominated household production to the national economy.
What is a SAM and what are the distinctive differences in structure of a standard SAM as compared to a gender-aware SAM and an extended gender-aware SAM?
How can a policy analyst use an extended gender-aware SAMfor policy intervention?
Discussion and Recommendations Tea/Coffee Break
Agenda Item 9:
Presentation ofthe South African Gender-aware Model: Process of Construction from SAM and Model Specifications(Prof. Bernard Decaluwe and Mr. Ismael Fofana)
A gender-aware CGE model is considered as one of the most appropriate tools for analyzing impacts of policies on household economy and
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market economy, in particular on poverty reduction. After building an extended a gender-aware SAM, the next important step is to review and select stylized macroeconomic policies, which are relevant to a given national economy to be tested in the model. On this basis, the model is constructed followed by conducting policy simulations for a given national economy.
What are the key features of the South African economy relevant to the modeling work?
What are the fiscal policy variables selected for the South African economy and why they were selected?
What other policy variables could have been included and why they were not included?
What is the approach used in constructing the gender-aware ECA model?
What are thefeatures ofthe gender-aware ECA model?
Discussion and Recommendations
Day Two: Wednesday 15 September 2004
PLENARY2:PRESENTATION OF THE SOUTH AFRICAN GENDER- AWARE MACROECONOMIC MODEL [- Cont'd]
Facilitator:Prof. Duncan Ironmonger 08:30- 09:30
09:30 - 10:00
Agenda Item 10:
Presentation ofthe Different Policy Simulations with the Model and their results(prof. Bernard Decaluwe and Mr. Ismael Fofana)
After building the gender-aware model experiments (simulations) were conducted with the model using selected fiscal policy variables to determine the changes in macro-economic outcomes (women and men's time use, wage rates, income and poverty reduction).
What is the approach used for evaluating results from the model?
What and how are the policy simulations carried out?
What are the key results, a non-gender-aware model would not elucidate?
How would these results inform policy?
What are the deficiencies in these simulations and how can they be overcome?
What is the potential of this approach of gender-aware modeling?
Discussion and Recommendations
Agenda Item 11:
An observation on the gender-aware model and further suggestions for
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t'"'
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· .
10:00 - 10:15 10:15 - 13:00
13:00-14:30 14:30-15:30
15:30-17:15
17:15-17:30
its modification(Dr. Anushree Sinha) Tea/Coffee Break
Agenda Item 12:
Round Table Discussions on Future Modeling Work in 5 other African Countries
The discussion will recap earlier discussions and recommendations on the development and testing of the gender-aware ECA model ill the light of how this initiative would need to be replicated in other African countries. Each of the representatives of the African countries will present an0 verview of0n-going work a nd future activities r elating to generation of gender-disaggregated data using time use and other household surveys as well as gender-aware modeling work in their countries.
What are the challenges in moving to Phase 2 of introducing gender- aware modeling in African countries?
How can these challenges be addressed"
Lunch
Agenda Item 13:
Round Table Discussions on Future Modeling Work in 6 African Countries
Agenda Item 14:
Presentation of Agreed Recommendations and Way Forward (Ms Marna Kearney, Director, Economy-wide Policy Modeling, National Treasury, south Africa)
Agenda Item 15:
Closing Remarks (Mr. K.Y. Amoako, Executive Secretary, ECA)
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