2018
2019
1980
2016
ءادهالؤ
د ّمدم اهدّيس :نيمّلعالإا مّلعم و نيلئا ّسلا ةودق و ًٍسلارلا مامإ ىلإ
مّلس و هيلع الله ى ّلص
يف يل اداش اهؤاضز نام ًم ىلإ...ءاطعلا ّلمً لا يرلا عىبييلا ىلإ
تبىحسم طىيخب يحداعس تلاخ ًم ىلإ...يقٍسط يف ازىه اهتاىعدو...ةايحلا
ّللا هره ثسظخها ًم ىلإ...اهبلق جيسو ًم
تبيبحلا ي ّمأ :رب ّصلا غزافب تظح
.اهسمع يف هّللا ىاطأ
لحأ ًم ءي شب لخبً مل ًم ىلإ..ءاىهلاب معولأ ىقش و ىعس ًم ىلإ
و تمندب ةايحلا مّلس يقجزأ نأ ينم
ّلع ًم ىلإ.. ةداعسلا قٍسط يف يعفد
.هسمع يف الله ىاطأ صٍصعلا يدلاو : ربص
هسلرب ُمهلٍُو ،يقوسع يف يسجً مهّبخ ًم ىلإ
اىشاع ًًرلا ىلإ..يبلق م
يف يسخذ ىلإ اهّسم و اهىلخ ةايحلا يعم
ةايحلا
.
: اهمأىج لا حوّسلا سطش و..
.يحاىخأ و يحىخإ
.بابخالأ و ءاقدصالأ..ةايحلا يف يديصزو..ءاخالؤ عبىم و..ءافىلا لهأ ىلإ
.تّيملاسالؤ هخ ّمأ دػو هىطو لبقخسم ىلعو هىًد ىلع زىيػ ناسوإ ّلم ىلإ
تيلسج دادؼب
سًدقّخلا و سن ّشلا
":ىلاعح ىاق
ى َلَع َو َي َلَع َت ْمَعْو
أ ي ِت
َ
َلا َوَخَمْعِو َسُن ْشَأ ْنَأ يِنْعِشْوَأ ِّبَز
َك ِداَبِع ي ِف َوِخ َم ْخَسِب ي ِن
ْل ِخْدَأَو ُهاَضْسَج اًح ِلاَص َلَمْعَأ ْنَأَىًََدِلاَو
ني ِح ِلا َصلا
"
تًالآ
91
لمىلا ةزىس ،
نىهً ءي ش نام امف،لمعلا اره شاجهإ ىلع ينهاعأ يرلا لاّوأ هّلل سن ّشلا
ههأش لح هخئيشمب لاإ
.
سن ّشلا لٍصجب م ّدقجأ نأ ّلاإ ينعسٌ لا ماقالإا اره يف ينّهإو
:يذاخسلأ
جاخ نادٍش ًب زىخلدلا
و ،تلاسّسلا هره ىلع فاسشلإاب مّسنج يرلا
.تسازدلا ةرتف تليط داشزالؤ و حصّىلا هئادبإ
سيئسل ناىخمالا ميظعو سنشلا صلاخب مدقجأ نأ لاإ ينجىفً لا امل
هامدق االإ ىامح نودش زىخلدلا ذاخسأو ىاجعلا تلادع زىخلدلا ذاخسالأ تىجل
مهل ّضفخل تشقاىالإا تىجل ءاضعأ ماسنلا ةرجاسالأو،ةدعاسمو معد ًم يل
هره تشقاىالإ ًٍزىهشم
.تلاسّسلا
اره شاجهإ يف مهسأ و ةدعاسالإا و نىعلا دً يل ّدم ًم ّلهل سن ّشلاو
.ءاصجلا ريخ ي ّنع عيمجلا الله يصحو .ديعب ًم وأ بٍسق ًم لمعلا
ًمف اىبصأ نإف اىجاىسخ نازيم يف لمعلا اره لعجً نأ الله ىأسأو
.تلوادالإا و ثدبلا اىبسخ و اىسفهأ ًمف اهأطخأ نإ و الله
I
II-VII
IX-XII
V
The unit root test ofstationary
VI
Johansen
Juselius
Error Correction Model
ECM
Granger
Sims
ARDL
ARDL
ARDL
ARDL bounds test
VII
ARDL
bounds test (ARDL
ARDL
Toda yamamoto
Toda yamamoto
IX
2
01
86
2
02
86
2
03
95
2
04
100
2
05
102
2
06
104
2
07
107
2
08
109
3
09
143
3
10
144
3
11
147
3
12
148
3
13
149
3
14
151
3
15
152
X
3
16
157
3
17
158
3
18
158
3
19
160
3
20
163
3
21
164
3
22
165
1
01
27
1
02
30
1
03
31
1
04
32
1
05
34
1
06
35
1
07
43
1
08
45
1
09
47
1
10
54
1
11
56
1
12
58
1
13
58
XI
1
14
59
2
15
60
2
16
61
2
17
82
2
18
83
2
19
85
2
20
1980
2016
89
2
21
1980
2016
89
2
22
91
2
23
92
2
24
97
2
25
1980
2016
98
2
26
108
2
27
111
2
28
112
2
29
114
2
30
115
XII
2
31
117
3
32
150
3
33
150
3
34
159
أ
ب
د
ه
و
« An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between minimum wage stimulates economic
growth in Ghana, for the period 1984-2013 »
ط
لصفلا
لولأا
-3 -
:H.Montrnal ,Les salaires ,L’inflation et les changes ,Librairie des sciences politiques et sociales, Paris, 1925,p1
-4 -
3:Brnard Martory,Daniel Grozet,Gestion des ressources humaines :pilotage social et performances, Edition
Dunord,Paris,p107
5
-5 -
-6 -
-7 -
-8 -
-9 -
-10 -
-11 -
-12 -
-13 -
-14 -
-15 -
-16 -
Ayachi Fella, Audit des salaires ,Mémoire de magister en science commerciales option Management des ressources humaines, Oron,2007/2008, p76
-17 -
-18 -
-19 -
-20 -
-21 -
-22 -
-23 -
-24 -
2
-25 -
-26 -
-27 -
-28 -
α
-29 -
Δ
Δ
-30 -
-31 -
-33 -
-34 -
2 ،حلاص يموت: ص 430 -431
-35 -
-36 -
-37 -
-38 -
2:Edward P.Lazer, Performance Pay and Productivit,The American Economic Review, Vol. 90, No. 5Dec
-39 -
(
)
-40 -
-41 -
1
: P. S. O. Uddin , Uddin, Osemengbe O,Causes, Effects and Solutions to Youth Unemployment Problems
-42 -
-43 -
𝑓 𝑈
Δ𝑤𝑤⁄𝑤𝑤
𝑓 𝑈 ′
Δ𝑤𝑤⁄𝑤𝑤
-44 -
(
)
(
)
(
)
-45 -
-46 -
1:Fercelle.J & Loroundj, Energie modélisation et économétrie, Edition Economica, Paris,1985, p.580 2: Antoine, Pétrole : marché et stratégie économique, Edition Economica,1987, p.16
-47 -
Source: Forecht.R, Le marché pétrolier international, Revue Notes et Etudes
Documentaires du 1/8 ,1985, p. 93
: J.C. Fuhrer,The Phillips Curve is alive and well, New England Economic Review of the Federal
Reserve Bank of Boston, March/April1995, P41-56
-48 -
-49 -
-50 -
𝑤
𝑤
∑
-51 -
∑
-52 -
-53 -
(
)
-54 -
-55 -
-56 -
(
)
-57 -
.
-59 -
-60 -
1
: Prager Jean Claude, La politique économique aujourd’hui , Ellipses, Paris, 2002 ,p29
2
-61 -
N
P
W
L
L
d
oN
N
N
P
W
-62 -
M.TODARO
-63 -
-64 -
-65 -
2
:
Jérôme Archambault,Recherche sur la nature des appariement entre emloyeurs et emplyée, Mémoire présenté en vue de l'obtention du grade de maitrise ès sciences option économie appliquée, Montreal(canada),Janvier 2013,p10
-66 -
-67 -
- 69 -
لصفلا
يناجلا
ةقلاعل ةيفصو ةيليلتح ةسارد
روجلأا
ضعبب
ةيلكلا ةيداصتقلاا تايرغتلما
زئازلجا في
- 70 -
1980
- 71 -
Andrew Sharpe, J.François Arsenault, Peter Harrison
2008
« The Relationship between Labour Productivity and Real Wage Growth in Canada »
kumar,Webber et Geaff
« Real wages,inflation and labour productivity in Australia »
21 : Andrew Sharpe ,Jean-François Arsenault, Peter Harrison, The elationship between Labour
Productivity and Real Wage Growth in Canada and OECD Countries,Centre for the study of
living standards research report , 2008
2 kumar, Webber,Geaff, Real wages,inflation and labour productivity in Australia,Department of businesses :
- 72 -
D.Josheski and D.Lazarov
(
2011
،)
1"
Causal relationship
between wages and prices in UK
"
1
11
04
2018
18:15
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/34095/1/MPRA_paper_34095.pdf
2- 73 -
G
.
Angeles-Castro
/
J
.
Juárez-Cruz
/
M
.
Flores
(
2014
)
- 74 -
« The Effect of Average Wages on the Economy: The Case of the United States »
1J. Tshepiso Tsoku/ Florance Matarise
« An Analysis of the Relationship between Remuneration (Real Wage) and Labour
Productivity in South Africa »
1:G. Angeles-Castro, J. Juárez-Cruz,M. Flores, The Effect of Average Wages on the Economy: The Case of
the United States, International Journal of Business and Social Science, School of Economics Instituto
Politécnico Nacional,México, Vol. 5, No. 11,October 2014,p30
2 : J. Tshepiso Tsoku , Florance Matarise, An Analysis of the Relationship between Remuneration (Real
Wage) and Labour Productivity in South Africa, Journal of Educational and Social Research
- 75 -
ھ
1 : 2 :
- 76 -
Dagmara Nikulin
(
2015
)
« Relationship between wages, labour productivity and unemployment rate in new
EU member countries »
1
1:Dagmara Nikulin, Relationship between wages, labour productivity and unemployment rate in new EU
member countries, Journal of International Studies, Vol. 8, No 1, 2015,p31 :
2
- 77 -
Consumer price index
- 78 -
- 79 -
.
TCSRI=2,79-0,23INF+0,23TCPMPL+0,12TCPMPL(-1)+0,16CPMPL(-2
TCE= 3,78+0,15TCPML(-1)+0,09TCPMPL(-3)+0,12TCPMPL(-4)
- 80 -
(
JOHANSEN
)
(
GRANGER
)
- 81 -
0 400,000 800,000 1,200,000 1,600,000 2,000,000 2,400,000 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 SLR- 82 -
- 83 -
0 400,000 800,000 1,200,000 1,600,000 2,000,000 2,400,000 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 SLRR SLRN- 84 -
2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 تعانصلا 125106 130809 137856 153319 170319 185187 ءانب 109202 20450 22468 23652 28021 29888 ةراجتلا 25927 28025 30493 33325 37300 43061 لقنلا 25055 28659 31708 35388 39727 43456 ثامدخلا 110861 141457 126805 165271 186395 206235 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 ي رئ ازج را نيد نو يلم- 86 -
- 88 -
0,00 2 000 000,00 4 000 000,00 6 000 000,00 8 000 000,00 10 000 000,00 12 000 000,00 14 000 000,00 16 000 000,00 18 000 000,00 ي رئ ازج را نيد نو يلم -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016- 89 -
- 90 -
4.4 4.8 5.2 5.6 6.0 6.4 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 PRODT- 91 -
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015INF
- 92 -
laspeyre index
- 93 -
𝑓
- 95 -
- 96 -
8 12 16 20 24 28 32 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015TCHOM
- 98 -
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 19 80 19 82 19 84 19 86 19 88 19 90 19 92 19 94 19 96 19 98 20 00 20 02 20 04 20 06 20 08 20 10 20 12 20 14 20 16 رلا ود ب لو رت بلا رعس لورتبلا رعس- 99 -
- 101 -
- 103 -
- 104 -
- 105 -
- 106 -
- 107 -
- 108 -
.21 .22 .23 .24 .25 .26 .27 .28 .29 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015TEDUC
- 111 -
0 4,000,000 8,000,000 12,000,000 16,000,000 20,000,000 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 PIB 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 PPTROL 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 SLRN 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 SLRR- 112 -
4.4 4.8 5.2 5.6 6.0 6.4 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 PRODT- 114 -
.0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 SLR 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 IPC 0 10 20 30 40 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 INF 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 SLRR1- 115 -
0 10 20 30 40 50 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 SLR TCHOM- 117 -
.0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 SLR TEDUC
ةيداصتقلاا تايرغتلما ضعب زثلأ ةيسايقلا ةجذمنلا
زئازلجا يداصتقلاا عاطقلا في روجلأا ىلع ةيلكلا
ي
( ةترفلل
1980
-2016
)
1980
2016
1980
2016
-121 -
1
33
9
2013
176
1980
2016
-122 -
[
]
̂
̂
̂
̂
̂
̂
t
t1980
2016
-123 -
1
:
0
1
:
1
t t t
1 t t t
1
1 1
t t 1 1
t tc
1 1
t tc
t1:D.Kwiatkowski,P..C.B.Philips,Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit
root, Journal of econometrics 54, vol. 159, n°178, 1992, p 160.
2:Régis bourbonnais , Econometrie , 5ème
1980
2016
-124 -
c
1
t
t
1
t
01980
2016
-125 -
0
1
1 2 1 1
K j j t j t t 1 2 1 1
c
K j j t j t t 1 2 1 1
c
bt
K j j t j t t
1
1980
2016
-126 -
k
k
t t t t t t t t tbt
c
y
y
c
y
y
y
y
1 1 1 t
n i t i t t n t l i t te
e
n
i
l
i
e
n
S
1 1 1 2 21
1
2
1
k
Régis bourbonnais, 9ème édition ,Dunod, op-cit, p250
T t tT
1 2 21
1980
2016
-127 -
9 2
100
4
n
k
k
n
k
t
1 11
1
1 1 1 *
S
tk
2 2
t i i ts
1
S
t 2
T
T t t tS
S
LM
1 2 2 21
1980
2016
-128 -
t
X
tY
t,
t
1980
2016
-129 -
t
t
d
t
b
t
t t d b t ty
x
b
y
d
x
2 1
)
(
2 1 1x
y
t
I
td
b
0
b
d
d
b
C
y
x
t,
t
,
)
,
(
1
2
t k t t t t k t tx
x
x
x
d
I
x
d
x
d
x
, , 2 , 1 , , 2 , 1...
,
)
(
.
...
...
...
k
1,
2,...,
d
b
C
x
t
,
1980
2016
-130 -
t t tx
y
1980
2016
-131 -
tv
t
t p t p t t ty
y
y
y
A
A
A
A
...
2 2 1 1 01980
2016
-132 -
t p t p t t ty
y
y
y
A
A
A
A
' 2 2 ' 1 ' '...
1 0
y
y
y
y
t k t t t , , 2 , 1...
...
tv
t
tv
t
' 1 1 ' 1 ' 1 '1
1
1
1
t T t t v T t t t v T t t t vv T t t tv
v
v
v
n
n
n
n
vv v vM
1 1 1980
2016
-133 -
p r i i traceT
In
11
r1
p
max
1 maxr
,
r
1
TIn
1
r
Sanda Hubana,A cointegration and causality analysis of Scandinavion stock markets,master’s thesis in
1980
2016
-134 -
t
t t t t
0 1 t
t t ty
0
1x
t
t t
L
S
L
e
t
L
S
t
L
e
t
1 1 1 1 p i t t i t tc
z
Q
y
u
y
ty
1980
2016
-135 -
1 1 1 1 p i t t i tQ
y
u
z
c
11
1
t
y
t
t
Angeles-Granger
Johanson
.I
3
2
.
.
Angeles
Granger
1987
ECM
t
tMCO
te
t
t1980
2016
-136 -
ECM
e
x
y
t
ˆ
ˆ
t
t
20
1 2 1
Y
t
x
t
e
tU
t
k
Angeles
Granger
kt k t t ty
x
x
e
ˆ
0
ˆ
1
...
ˆ
t t nkt k t n te
u
y
t n
1 2 2....
1
1 1
1980
2016
-137 -
Angeles
Granger
MVCE
Modèle vectoriel à correction
d’erreur
t t t tx
e
u
y
1
2 1
y
t
x
t t t tx
e
y
ˆ
ˆ
0
,
0
,
1 1
t t t t t te
c
x
e
c
y
t 1
t 2
t 1
1980
2016
-138 -
t 2
t 1
t 2
t 2
t 1
t t p t p t p p p p t t t ty
y
b
a
b
a
y
y
b
a
b
a
b
a
y
y
2 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 2 1...
0 0 1 2 1 2,
,
,
,
,
b
a
a
b
a
b
i i i i t 2
t 1
0
...
:
11 21 1 0
b
b
b
p t 1
t 2
0
...
:
12 22 2 0
a
a
a
p t 1
t 2
t 2
t 1
1980
2016
-139 -
1980
2016
-140 -
1980
2016
-141 -
∑
∑
∑
∑
𝛒
1980
2016
-142 -
1980
2016
-143 -
∑
∑
∑
∑
1980
2016
-144 -
∑
∑
∑
∑
1980
2016
1980
2016
1980
2016
1980
2016
1980
2016
-149 -
˂
˂
1980
2016
-150 -
˂
1980
2016
-151 -
-0.4 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CUSUM of Squares 5% Significance
-12 -8 -4 0 4 8 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CUSUM 5% Significance -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 CUSUM 5% Significance -0.4 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 CUSUM of Squares 5% Significance
1980
2016
1980
2016
-153 -
1980
2016
-154 -
1980
2016
-155 -
1980
2016
-156 -
1980
2016
-157 -
∑
∑
∑
∑
∑
1980
2016
1980
2016
-159 -
˂
1980
2016
-160 -
-12 -8 -4 0 4 8 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CUSUM 5% Significance -0.4 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CUSUM of Squares 5% Significance
1980
2016
-161 -
1980
2016
-162 -
1980
2016
-163 -
1980
2016
-164 -
Hiro .y.Toda ,Taku.Yamamoto ,statical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated