Development of petroleum and chemical industries in the North African sub-region : Volume III

ECONOMIC and SOCIAL COUNCIL

E/CN.14/INR-/156

16 March 1971 ENGLISH

Original: FRENCH

esimt II Hi iu tun III NISI an m ui ena CD 6S3E3 in tn BHUIlfl

I

ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR AFRICA

^DEVELOPMENT OF PETROLEUM AND CHEMICAL INDUSTRIES

■ IN THE NORTH AFRICAN SUB-REGION *

VOLUME III

* Report prepared "by the Bureau d'Etudes Industrielles et de cooperation, de l'lhstitut Francais du petrole, under the French Governmsnt's

"bilateral assistance programme.

H7I-651

MEETING THE NEEDS

Pages

Production capacities - Announced Projects 1

Results of the market study. Deficits:- production - consumption 14

Production capacities to be projected. 35

Factors affecting the possibilities for establishing refinery

and petrochemical industries in North Africa l 100

ANNEX 110

Description of the industry - description of the procedures.

PRODUCTION CAPACITIES - ANNOUNCED PROJECTS

- " Pages

REFINING..

I.I'. Projected extensions of the already existing refineries 2

1.2. Projected new refineries 2

1.3. Summary of the situation by country 2

II. FERTILIZERS ' ' ' "

.. . II.l.. . Projects for production of nitrogenous fertilizers. . " 4 II.2. Projects for the production of phosphatic fertilizers 5

11*3*. Summary of the situation by country 6

III.- PETROCHEMICALS ' ...

111.1. Announced production projects 11

111.2. Summary of the situation by country ■■ 11 IV. CHEMICALS : ' "

IV.1. Production of mineral acids and ammonia : 13 IV.2.. Projects for production of chlorine and soda 13

E/CN.14/INR/156

Page 2

I. REFIMING ' ..■■..

I«l. Projected extensions of the already existing refineries

Most of "the countries concerned cover almost all their needs in petroleum products. As a corollary, the local refinery industry - is keeping pace. With increased demand and any extension to or improvement in the refinery could be carried out faster- if tenders

were offered to engineering firms. ■

Apart from the Suez refineries which have been repairedr only one refinery out of the already existing ones will probably be extended and start production by 197Or namely the Alexandria refinery'in the UARP owned by the Alexandria Petroleum. "This refinery will increase its annual capacity from lt400E000 tons to 2c5OO.OOO tons;, the engineering firm is Technoexport (Czechoslovakia), The other

projected extensions in Morocco (Sidi Kacem and Mohammedia) and in . Tunisia (Bizerta) which have not been confirmed' are not expected at least within the next four years to increase the production of

these countries- ■ ■ ■

1-2. Projected new refineries .

A single refinery due to be established will start production

"by 1975; this is the Arzew refinery in Algeria whose initial

capacity of 2r000r000 tons of products could be increased later on to 4t000r000 tons.. This.refinery operating only on Algerian

crude petroleum will gear its products mainly to exports on behalf

of SONATRACHD the Algerian national company.

1.3. Summary of the position by country

( The present and the future position of the refinery capacities is summarized in Table 1.

TABLE 1

Refinery capacities in North Africa'

Algeria , Algiers

Hassi-Messauod Arzew

Morocco

Mohammedia Sidi Kacem

Tunisia Bizerta

Lifrya

Port Brega Dahra UAR

Alexandria

El Nasr (Suez)

Suez Sudan

Port Sudan

Capacities in 1965 (in tons)

2. 700,000

2r5OOrOOO 200r 000 ■

1, 700! 000

lr300,000 400t000

lt000f000 .

lc000,000 500,000

400r000 100,000 8r900.000 -

lr400r000 4r5OOrOOO 31000r000 900.000

900,000

Capacities to "be installed

ty 1975 (in tons)

4f7OOfOOO

2r500,000

.' 200,000

2, 000r 000

lf700r000

lf300t000 400r 000

l:000r000

It 000(000

500r000

400,000

; 100,000

10,000(000

2,5OOPOOO 4,5OOPOOO 3t000r000

900t000

900,000

E/CN.14/INR/156

Page 4

II. ' FERTILIZER PRODUCTION . ,.„...

II.1. Projects for the production- of—Nitrogenous fe-rtilizers

Table 2 and-2b summarize the projected new plants and. the e-xt«nsion.

,of-the already existing production capacities. The projects

.. scheduled to be implemented by 193.0 are grouped in three countriesp

■AlgeriaF Tunisia and the UAR. We have not taken into account

~the" announcement of a~project- for--producing nitrogenous-.— "-. --.

fertilizers in Libya with a daily output .of lr000 tons of ammonia.' Production from the Safi complex in Morocco and another complex -.- '.':

for ammonium phosphate has been studied together with phosphatic fertilizers.

II.1.1. Algeria

SONATRACH'was expected to put into operation in 1969 a nitrogenous fertilizer complex with a daily capacity of lt000 tons of ammonia, an annual production of l65fOOO tons of ammonium nitrater 135rOOO tons of ureat and

l80t000 tons of ammonia. - ...

II.1.2. Tunisia

At the same time, the phosphatic complex^ (ICM) INDUSTRIES ChimiquesiMaghrebines) is expected to start by 1970 "the' production of 85rOOO tons of calcium ammonium nitrate at

Gabes. A.more hazardous production - but we have

it into consideration - of 50t000 tons of urea is anticipated at a latter date. ■

II.1.3. UAR

An extension to the El Nasr d'Ehgrais et. d'Industries Chimiques;:at Suez is expected to be carried out thereby becoming operational by 1970; this will bring about a 'capacity of -3Y0>000 tons-ef- calcium ammonium-nitrate..

Other projects which are being constructed or have been planned will considerably increase the local production •■

of nitrogenous fertilizers.

At Helwanr El Nasr Coke and Heavy Chemical Company is setting up a plant with an annual capacity of 200f000 tons of ammonium nitrate. The contractor is Dier Werke and

operations were expected to begin by 1969- A further

extension is planned for the production of 95»OOO tons of urea after 1970.

- On the premises of the. Alexandria-petrochemical complex a

nitrogenous fertilizer complex is expected to "become operational

after 1970; it will produce 20Or000 tons of ammonium nitrate and 95rOOO tons of urea.

' - At Suezr a project though more hazardous but with relatively-

great chances of successt is due to start "by 1975- I* wil1

have an annual production capacity of 40t000 tons of urea from natural gas.

11,2. Projects for producing phosphatic fertilizers

Tables 3 and 3b summarize the main projected installations and the extension to the already existing production capacities.. As Libya and Sudan have no plans for building phosphatic fertilizer plants, only Moroccor Algeria, Tunisia and UAR will increase their

production. = ■ ' .

II.2il- Morocco ■ ■ ■

- At Safic a phosphatic fertilizer complex is operating with a production capacity of 200r000 or 400t000 tons of triple

superphosphate and 150r000 or 700r000 tons of ammonium

. 'phosphate, all corresponding to l65fOOO tons of P2°c.-

■- Another Moroccan project under the.Office Cherifien des

Phosphates has strong chances of being implemented and becoming

■; - operational after 1975- The new capacity would be double that

'. of the Safi complex. . "

II.2i2.:Algeria . .■ ■ ■

Although it still appears hazardousc a nitrophosphatic and phosphatic fertilizer project at Annaba.will start operations by 1975. This project being sponsored by the Djebe ONK Company would have a capacity of 300,000 tons of fertilizers (triple superphosphate ard ammonium phosphate).

II.2.3- Tunisia

This country which already exports phosphatic fertilizer .will further increase its production at two sites.

- At Sfaxr an extension to the production by SIAPE (Societe

Industrielle d'Acide Phosphorique et d'Engrais) is expected

to increase the capacity of triple superphosphate from 100r000

tons to 200F000 tons by 1970.

13/CN.14/INR/156

Page 6

- At Gabes, ICM (industries Ch-imiques Maghrebines) has a

phosphatic fertilizer project due to become operational "by 1970

■ and produce 200,000 tons of ammonium phosphate.

II.2.4. UAR

Many projects have been announced with a view to bridging the present gap between the production of phosphatic fertilizers and that of nitrogenous fertilizers. In addition to the two

complexes which are operating at full capacityt two others are expected to become operational shortly and the another one later on.

- At Abou Zaabal (Fertilizers andChemical Company) the capacity

has now been reduced to 100C000 tons of simple superphosphate owing to the lack of acid but this should resume its normal production of 260,000 tons per annum.

- At Kafr Zayat (Societe Financiere et Industrielle d'Egypte)

the present capacity of 120r000 tons of simple phosphate is expected to increase to 300r000. tons by 1970 for the same

reason. . . |

.- At Assyutr the Societe Pinanciere et Industrielle d'Egypte

is expected to start producing by 1970 200,000 tons of triple ! superphosphate manufactured by Chemiebau Zieren by 1970- !

At Aswan a production of 100r000 tons of triple"superphosphate by the Egyptian Chemical Industry "Kima" will "begin after 1970.

At Suez,; a project of the El Nasr d'Bngrais et d'Industries CHIMIQUES has strong chances of being implemented'. "" This which corresponds to 400,000 tons of triple phosphates per annum, would begin operations by 1975-

II.3- Summary of the situation by country

Tables 2 to 2b shovr the existing and future capacities for the production of nitrogenous and phosphatic fertilizers. Since "the completion of a number of projects may.be delayed, the starting dates, for the nev; installations are given merely as a general

indication, to allow a comparison with consumption in 1975 and 1980.

Similarly, the quantities of fertilizers given in tons of fertilizing element N, or F 0r are only approximate..

TABLE 2

Production capacities of nitrogenous fertilizers in the Maghreb (in thousands of tons)\

Company

Algeria Sonat rach

Tunisia ICM

(industries

Chimicpies

Maghre"bines^

Total

fertilizers after 1970.

Site

Arzew

Gabes

St art ing Date

1969

After 1970

Ammonium Nit rat e

165

calcium

85

nitrate

250

Calcium Nitrate

Ammonium Sulphate

Urea

135

50

185

Total

■ 300

(+180 d! am moniac)

135

i

435

The production capacity at Arzew corresponds to 27OEOOO tons of nitrogen per annum and that of Gabest 40:000 tons per annum.

:TABLE2b•'■.•;: Productioncapacitiesofnitrogenousfertilizersinthe.UAR

(in thousands of tons) ' }

CO ElNasrd'Engrais ctd1Industries Chimiques ElNasrCokeand HeavyChemical Company Complex Petrochimique

Siteinpro during195 ;orstartingdate Sue: HeIwan Alexandria EgyptianChemical) Industries'"Kima"A&wa SuezGeneral 0,forChemicals

;Inproduction By1970 1969 After1970 After1970 Inproduction Arciv/.d1975 1

Total fertilizersj

around1975

1

Totalin nitrogeneInproduction Around1975

Ammonium' ■nitrate■~ "370

(ammonium calcique)

^■

200.

; 200

200■

■"" 450 " (ammonium

calcique) 1220 92 300

Calcium ■•nitrate

o S3

TABLE3 ProductioncapacitiesofphosphaticfertilizersintheMaghreb

(in thousands of tons) "

Company Morocco Occidental Petroleum Corporation Office Cherifiendes Phosphates Algeria SNAPCE

(Societe

Nationale Algerienne deproduits Chimiqueset

... d'.Engrais)

Tunisia STEP SAPCE WPK

Engrais SAT SIAPE ICM

Site:

Ain Sebaa: ) Kenitra Safi)

Safi

La Senia : ) El Harrach ) Annaba • )

Annaba Sfax Tunis Sfax Sfax Gabes

Inproduction

during 1965' or

starting-date Inproduction By1968 After1975 Inproduction Around1975 Inproduction Inproduction Inproduction Inproduction By1970 Around1970

Simple■ superphosphate 15Q

100 (hyper- phosphate)

60 30 40 130i

(hyperphosphate)

60

Triple superphO3phafceDiammonium phciphate 200or400 400or-800 100-150 ...100

206

150-or300 300:or600 300 200

Total 500 1000

) 13P

300 ...130 100 100 200 200 (.Totalfertilizers ;after1975

?To-tal in P2O5 "1

570env.1350env.10502970 Inproduction AfterI975

118

110 610330 1210

TABLE3b" Productioncapacitiesofphbephaticfertilizers

(in thousands of tons)

in-theU.A.R.

t=J 0QO. Company Abou.Zaabal Fertilizerand ChemicalCompany SocieteFican- ciereetIndus- trie'lled'Egypte EgyptianChemical Industries"Kima" ElNasrd'Engrais etd'Industries Chimiques Totalfertilizers by1975 TotalinP^O

Site AbouZaabal Kafiel Zayat Assyut Aswan Suez

Inproduction during1965or startingdate Inproduction By1970 vInproduction AroundI97O By1970 After1970 ■Ai;,und1975 Inproduction Around1975

Simple superphosphate i

"100 '260

J

\ 120

300 560- 35 90

Tripl* super 20C -10( 40(

ohosphate 700 315

Diammonium phosphateTotal 100 260 '120 300 200 100 400 1260 35■ 405

o,

III. PETROCHEMICAL

We include under this chapter, the production of major intermediate

petrochemicals (mainly'aromatics and oiefinsj-an-well "as that of

"by-products (plastics,, synthetic fibresf rubber and detergents)-

;TII.r. "Announced Projects for Production

■ Only Morocco and the UAIi ha.ve or will have sorne ^production. ~

: Although' Algeria has manifested it a desire to install plants

for producing plastics, at present no announced projects appear to have been really implement.*:-:!,

III. 1.1.. Morocco

Morocco has provided for a single production; a capacity

; of. 10,000 tons of polyvinyl chloride is: expected to become operational after l?70 at Kenitra. The raw ' material will be imported ethylene or that produced

.locally. :

III.1.2. UAR ■- ' ' ■ :

- A new refinery at Suea,j>rcduping. aromat.ics. is. already. - in existence;,18:CCO tons of benzine toluene and xylenes.

At tho same site, ?, production of 6r000 -tons of

dodecylbeiifcine' (fox* synthetic detergents) has also

begun.

- At Alexandria a nsw complex due to become operational after 1970 will produce 35r000 tons of ethylene leading to

(1) 15P000 tons of high prepare polyethylene and

moiioraeriu vinyl chloride for 20r00O tons of polyvinyl chloride,

(2) 120t000 tons of polybutadiene.

(3) 5F2OO tons of acrylonitrile'r 4r400 tons of caprolactam

for 5:000 tons of-acrylic fibresr 4,000 tons of nylon.

(4) Other productions ^methanolP phenol, acetone)

111 • 2. Summary of ti.o situation fry count ry

Table 4 summarir,3P the varion.s features^of the two complexes projected in Morocco and the UAR, _ ...

E/CN.14/INR/156

Page "12 •"■■"■

TABLE 4

Announced petrochemical complexes

Site

Kenitra (Morocco) Alexandria (UAR)

Starting date

After 1970 Around 1970

Production (in tons)

1

Ethylene

HP polyethylene.

PVC

polybutadiene Acrylonitrile Acrylic fibres Caprolactam 4(000 nylon

IV. CHEMICALS

We include under this chapter acids (Sulphuricr nitric and phosphorict

chlorinet soda as well, as-ammonia-. -■ ■ ■

IV.1.-Production of mineral acids and ammonia

The manufacture of these various products are captive and-are-all related to the production of fertilizers; nitrogenous fertilizers for ammonia and nitric acid; phosphatic fertilizers for sulphuric and phosphoric acid. For each announced fertilizer projectt "the manufacture of these intermediate products is obviously envisaged to meet the related -needs. 'We have therefore not recapitulated the production capacities of these various- components.

IV»2. .Projects for the production of chlorine and soda

Among the four countries that produce at the moment chlorine and soda-Tunisiaf. Moroccot Algeria and UAR-only the last three have planned to increase their capacities or have provided for new productions. We have therefore overlooked the production of chlorine required in the production of monomeric vinyl chloride

(Alexandria and probably Kenitra). ■ • ■■

IV 2.1. Morocco

An increase in the existing production at Sidi-Yahia should . begin "by 1970 with capacities increasing from 4r000 to 10,600 tons of chlorine per annum and from 4r5OO to 11,500 of soda

per annum,

IV.2.2. Algeria

An increase in the existing production at Baba-Ali (near Algiers)

"by 1970 will increase the capacities from 4fl5O to 5r5OO tons of chlorine per annum and 4r5OO to 6,000 tons of soda per annum respectively.

IV.2.3. UAR

On the Soda-ammonium process (Solvay)r a unit of production built

by Romania which is expected to begin operations by 1970 will

eventually meet the country's needs in sodium carbonate (32r5OO tons per annum) and sodium bicarbonate (5r000 tons per annum).

This unit will also provide 45fOOO tons of soda per annum.

E/CN.14/INR/156

Page 14 .

RESULTS OF THE MARKET STUDY \.

DEFICITS IN PRODUCTION - CONSUMPTION

■ ' ' Pages "

I. REFINING

1.1. Consumption of Petroleum Products 15

1.2. Production of the Refineries . ." 3c I-3» ■ ...Deficit or Surplus in the coming years 15 II. FERTILIZERS.

II.1. Consumption of Nitrogenous fertilizers 20 * Deficit of surplus in the coming years

" II.2. Consumption of Phosphatic fertilizers

Deficit or surplus in the coming years 23

III. PETROCHEMICALS . .;.-■

111.1. Consumption of finished products

Deficit in the coming years 28-

111.2. Consumption^of intermediate.products :

Deficit in the coming ^years ■- - ;. 31

IV. CHEMICALS '

IV.l. Consumption and production of mineral acids . -

and ammonia 33

IV.2. Consumption of chlorine and soda

Deficit in the coming, years 33

I. REPINING.

•:I.I. Consumption of patroleiim

■ Table 5lWhi"ch embodies "the results of'the market survey is

reproduced "below; it iiidic^.tes th3 total consumption of petroleum products in lf)55r 19?0f 1975.. and 1980,

. We shall confine ourselves to a couira.-ative study of the total. . consumption and production of petroleum in the individiial

: countries without entering into details about their breakdown

(gasoline- middle distillatesr residual fuel oil and others)-

1*2. Production of the refinerias

From table 1 of Part 1.3 of the previous Chapter which covers refinery capacities in North Africar we canp "oy adopting a

reasonable hy~;o't;hesis for the prodiiction rates of the refineries, estimate xhs future productions in t'.io various countries,

cf. Table 6.. ... .... ... ~ ..

Based on ch:: announced capacitiesr we can bank on a total production of about:

; " 1,53-"''rOOO \'Oi:.z for Morocco . ' 4r20C7D00 ton™. j?o:..' Algeria :

900,000 -bonn Cot Tunisia ' - -■■■ ■ ■■ 400,000 -tour, for Libya ' ■ '

9:000,000 -:;ci:s for UAH

8OO';00O -tens- ±or Sudan

or art app?^ox.Lmate production of i6:,85O tons for all the six:

countries including '6j65OfGOO tons in the first three countries (Morocco, Al'jor:;.a5 Tunir.'i?,) and 10?200j000 JJons in the other three

countries. ... ■ ■ ■•■

I'«3» Deficit or Surplus in the Coming Yq&tq [

-If the projected consump-J.ou and production in the various countries aro comparedc approximate figures can be madeP

cf. Table 7w ■ :

Page 16

TABLE 5

Total consumption (thousands of cons)

MOROCCO Gasoline

Middle distillates Residual fuel oil Others

Total ' ALGERIA

Gasoline

Middle distillates Residual fuel oil Others.

Total TUNISIA

Gasoline

Middle distillates Residual fuel oil Others

Total LIBYA

Gasoline

Middle distillates Residual fuel oil Others

Total UAR

Gasoline

Middle distillates Residual fuel oil Others .

Total SUDAN

Gasoline

Middle distillates Residual fuel oil Others

Total

1965 I A

250 430 .440 105 It 225

340 540

■125 180

It 185

6.9 5a 5

1.1 5.3 3.8

3.85

^80 240 305 50

675

110 I85

>40 35C

15

2r100 3PC00

(215)

5F6OO

60 220 300 60020

1.2 6 6.1

5.5

10.2 10,6 84 10.2

1 ■ •

5.1

1.25

! .1970

250 600

565

1 c56O

145

__ 1

■4

1975

]■■ ^A

320 <

85

410

880 65

I

3-2 |

3.2

5.1 5.4

I 5.2

-J.

300

} 2 r/00

3E2OO

' 350 6 ,5.50

-70 280 390 770

1.6 7,6 6C2

360 700 150 220 j

430 j 5.3 2.2

6>9

3*8

2.3

5.7

7.2

180 300

30 I 60 !

570 I 9.2

10.6

8.5 5.8

6.5 2-5

4.0 5-3

5w 5.5

5 06

270 820 82c 200 2,110

3.5

6.1

7.9 6o5

■400 180 270 1,830

420

95

580 -180

85

2.9

7-3 4

5-4

3 6,6

5.7

300 450 80

880

50

10.6 8.1 4,6

340 3r7OO 3r.9OO 510

8.450

8,085

370

, 5°

510 if 015

*A : % Annual increase,

6.6 3=0

5-8

6O2

5.9

1980

320 1,100

>lt200 280 2,900

460 lr.400 220, 330 2r41O

110 550 800 110 1*570

500 670 100 180 1 r-350

400

4*500 700 10J00

^-100 490690 lr35O70

TABLE 6

REFINERY CAPACITIiiB IN NORTH AFRICA

ALGERIA Algiers

Hassi -MessaucKL Arzew

MOROCCO

Mohammedia

Sidi-Kacem TUNISIA

Bizerta LIBYA

Port Brega Dahra ;

UAR . . ' . ■

Alexandria

El Nasr (Suez)

Suez

SUDAN

Port Sudan

Capacities in 1965

(in tons)

2,700,000

2,500,000 200,000

1,700,000 ! ':

^1,300,000 ; : 400,000

1,000,000

1,000,000 500,000

- ■ . 400,000 -'■■■

100,000

8,900,000. . ..

1,400,000 ' 4,500,000.

3,000,000 900,000

900,000

Capacities to be installed

by 1975

4,700,000

2,500,000 200,000 2,000,000 1,700,000

1,300,000 400,000 i 1,000,000

. 1,000,000

500,000 :

400,000 -;

100,0C<3 10,000,000

2,500,000 4,500,000 3,000,000 900,00

-900,000

E/CN.14/INR/156

Page .18 ^

TABLE 7

Comparative development of the manufacture and consumption of petroleum products in the North Africancountries

during the 1965-1980 period

. + Surplus production

- Deficit production

= Balanced production

Count ry

Morocco Algeria .Tunisia,

Libya UAR Sudan*

Total .

North Africa

1965

+ + +

+ ■ +

+

1970

u+iii+n

+

1975,

"'l'+I:I+l

1980

ii-ii+i

-

* The present position of Sudan which shows surplus production conceals the trends in petroleum products (imports of light crudes and export of heavy crudes). Whereas most countries are still recording surplus or "balanced production except Libya; their production position is deteriorating fast and might turn out to.show deficits.

By 1980 the position in terms of quantity is summed up in Table 8.

TABLE 8

Estimated surplus or deficit production of petroleum products "by 1980

.Country

Morocco - ■ .

' Algeria Tunisia Libya UAR

Sudan .. • ' -

Total

■In tons ■

Deficit Surplus Deficit Deficit Deficit * - ■ Deficit

Deficit

1 350 000

■. 1 800 000

700 000 950 000 - 2 200 000

■ -'" ;■■' --550 000

3 950 000

*Base'd on a slightly higher .total consumption level (11,200,000 tons

instead of 10,700^000 tons)r cf. Production capacities to be projected 1.1.2,

E/CN.14/INR/156

Page 20

II- FERTILIZERS

II.1. Nitrogenous fertilizers

The demand1 in tons of nitrogen"estimated in the market survey;

Table 10 outlines the main results for each country during 1965, 197Or 1975 and 198O.

The local production capacities giv£n in Tables 2 and 2b of part II.3 of the previous Chapter make it possible to give approximate

figures for total production in tons of nitrogen by countryf by assuming reasonable production rates of about 90$ of the capacity t three to four years after the complexes have become

operational. [

TABLE 9

Estimated production of Nitrogenous fertilizers by 1975 and 1980 (Expressed in tons of nitrogen)

Morocco Algeria*

Tunisia UAR

■ -■ ■ .— - . ■

1975

4O5 000 lOOrOOO 30r000 410,000

1980

. 60s 000 HOpOOO 35r000 570r000

*Excluding the production of liquid ammonia at Arzew but only the production

of nitrogenous fertilizers.

If the production and consumption figures for nitrogenous fertilizers

estimated above are comparedr a qualitative Table on the production situation for each country can be drawn upo cf. Table II.

..TABLE. 10

Consumption of nitrogenous fertilizers' (in tons'of

(1) (2) (3)"

' (4)

(5) (6) (7)

Morocco Algeria "

Tunisia Litya UAR Sudan TOTAL

SUB-TOTAL

It 2t 3

MAGHREB Percentage

of the total

3, 4P 5

Others

; 1965

16 r400 18 r000

Z(8j,OOO)

~.(1P400)

250 rooo 34 r500 328 t300

42,400

■ •

285 t900

A*

11;'

12 ■■

10.

16.5

5.2

7.7 64

11.4

5.5

1970

28,000

■'■ 32rOOO 13 rooo 3 c000 320 ,000 50 tooo 446 rooo

73 P000

373rOOO 12 13

9

22 5

7

7

12

6 A*

.5

.1

,6

&

<2

.2

1975

5Orooo 60.000 20,000 8 r000 420 rooo 73 r000 631 r000

130 rooo

501rooo 1

*

A

9.8$

10.6

8.5

20

6.5

6.5"

10.2

■

6.0

. 11

1980

80

";100

; 30

£20

'550

100 850

210

■

670 cooo [000 fOOO rooo ,000 jOOO ,000

rooo

1

11

000

E/CN.14/INR/156

Page 22

TABLE 11

Comparative development of the production and consumption of nitrogenous fertilizers in the North African

countries during the 1965--I98O period

"*\ ! ' '+ surplus production

1 ' • . ! ' - .Defigit production

■■;'■■* r _ Balanced production

Morocco*

Algeria . Tunisia**

Libya

:UAE

1 Sudan

Total North Africa

: 1965

-

-

1970

_:

:'-975 .

1++1111

+

■ 1980

+ +

+

+

^Production of ammonium phosphate at Safi and at the new project cannot meet Morocco's entire needs in nitrogenous fertilizers.

**The surplus position of Tunisia by 1975 takes into consideration the coming

into operation of the Gabes complex (industries ChimiqL-.es Maghrebines)., ' -

Most of the countries whose production position is at present unfavourable will improve and become surplus countries by 1970 or I98O0 Only Morocco

with a deficit of 3c000 tons of nitrogen by 1975 and I98O and non-producing countries (Libyar Sudan) will be affected by the total deficit as indicated

by the Table below.

TABLE- 12

Estimated surplus or deficits' in nitrogenous fertilizers by 1980

Company

Morocco Algeria Tunisia Libya UAR Sudan

Total" ':

Surplus

Deficit Surplus Surplus.

Deficit Surplus Deficit

: Deficit .

or deficit

20 000 10 000

■ .5 000 ;

15 000 20 000 100 000

100 000

Excluding the:production of ammonia (14O:OOO tons of nitrogene) geared

to exports- : :

This Table chows the almost balanced position of all the countries . ' except Sudan whose total demand would be covered through imports.

II* 2.--Phosphatic-fertilizers ' ; .. .

Demand for phosphoric anhydride (P (L)- was estimated in the

markeJ; study... Table 13 recapitulates^ths main results for. each

country: in 1965; 197Ot 1975 and 198On

E/CN.14/INR/156

Page 24

TABLE 13

Consumption of phosphatic fertilizers (in tons of P^ 0<-)

1. Morocco 2. Algeria 3. Tunisia 4« Libya 5. UAR

6. Sudan

7. TOTAL

SUB TOTAL lt 2r 3 MAGHREB

Percent age of the - Total

3t 4E 5

Others

■ ■ ■*■■ '

1965

23

35 (13 (1

50 ,200

^00

f000) ,100)

;000

(500-1000)

122

71

51

r800

.200

,600 /

*

A

11-5#

7-3 8.8

10

.9-3 .

7-1

10.8

1970

40

45

20

■ 2 80

5

192

100

87

rooo Eooo r.000 rooo Eooo rooo

1.000

rooo

rooo

A

8,4*

6 7.7 20 13

24.5

10.6

8

14

1975

60 60 28

5

150

15 318

148

170 fooo rooo rooo rooo r000 r000

r00O

r000

cooo A

: 8.

..e.

7.

19.

10.

15

10.

8.

11.

#

45&

4 s 2 :

5

1

2

5

198O

90 90 40 12 250 30 512

220

292 r000 r000 r000 r000 f000 r000

rO00

tooo

r000

A Annual increase

The local production capacities given infTables 3 and 3b of part II.3 of the previous chapter makes it possible t:v indicate an approximate total production in tons of ?0 0 by country, by assuming a reasonable p-oduction rate of

about 90 percent of the capacityP three to four years after the complexes have

become operational.

TABLE 14 ■

Estimated production of phosphatic fertilizers "by. 1975 and. I98O (Expressed in tons "of P^ 0,-)

■

Morocco Algeria Tunisia UAR

1975

250 000 20 000 160 000 200 000

1980

450 000 150 000

■ 230 000

■ 330 000

If "the production and consumption figures for phosphatic fertilizers estimated above are compared, a qualitative Table of the production position for each country can "be "drawn upt cfo Table 15.

E/CN.14/IHR/156

Page 26

TABLE 13

Comparative development of the production and consumption of phosphatic fertilizers in the North African Countries

during the 1965 - 1980 period

+ Surplus - Deficit

= Balanced production

Morocco Algeria Tunisia Libya UAH Sudan

Total North Africa

1970 :

-

-

-

+

-

+

-

1975

+

-

-

+

+

1980

, +

: +

-

+ .

-

n +

Most of the countries in deficit or balanced position will improve their position and thus show surplus "by I98O. The deficit and.demand of Libya and Sudan, which are not producers will increase further. The other countries will become major surplus producersr even exporters. The Table below specifies this position.

TABLE 16

Estimated surplus or deficit production

of phosphatic fertilizers by 1980

(in tons of ?0 0,.)

Country

Morocco Algeria Tunisia Libya UAR Sudan

Total

Surplus or

Surplus Surplus Surplus Deficit Surplus

Deficit .

Surplus around

deficit

360f000 60f000 190,000 12ft000 80t000 3.0 P 000 .

650r000

* This considerable surplus takes into consideration the implementation .

of-the project :6"f tHe office Cherifi'en des phosphates where production capacity would'be double that of the Safi complex and in which.we have

■ -assumed only"the initial production of ;triple superphosphate.

E/CN.14/INH/156

Page 28 .

III. PETROCHEMICALS

f -

IIia- Finished products:. Consumption .-...deficit. fo

■ The major finished products concerned are:

- plastics, including polyethylene and polyvinyl chloride. '

- synthetic fibres including nylon, polyester fibres and acrylics

- synthetic rubbers

—pitulated

TABLE 17

Consumption of Polyethylene and PVC

~ ... . (in tons). . . . _

—————^—^———

Morocco Algeria INonisia' Libya UAR Sudan

Total

Poly ethy lene

1 300

585

550 300 41000 200

6t935

' 1» 1 1 ■ ■

PVC

3,500 5.400 750 500

6c000 600

16*750

IS

Poly ethy lene

3,100 4r 000 If 300 900 7t7OO 500

■■ ■

17t500

1 ■ 1 .-

70

— ■■

PVC

- ■

6E000

7r5OO if 550 it 500 11,500 950

28r500

1975

Poly ethy lene

6r6OO

9r8OO

2t5OO 2rOO0

15r800

1(000

37r700

PVC

8,600

9,400 2r7OO 3,000 19,000 1,400

44,100

1980

Poly- ethy- lene

—- ■ ■-1

12E400 16r600 4,300 4doo

28r000

It 700

67r100

^ -^p^»

PVC

13c500 15r000 4rOOO 4r600

28,000

2r000

67,100

The consumption of synthetic fibres is.. summarized in Table 18,

TABLE 18

Consumption.of synthetic fibres

(in tons)

Country

Morocco Algeria Tunisia ■■ - Libya UAR .Sudan

TOTAL

. 1965

2 400 2 300 1-500 ■ .

700 600 1 000

8 500 '

1970

4 500 4 300

•'2 000 .

1 000

■ 4 000 1 200

17 000

1975

8 000 8 000

„ 3 000 ..

2 000

8 000

2 000

■ 31 Q00

1980

13 500

■15-000- 4 500 4 000 . 15 000.

3 500

. 55 500.

In the years 1975-198Or the following breakdown of the major synthetic

fibres can be estimated at:

45 per cent nylon

25 to 30 per cent polyesters fibres 15 -o 20 per cent acrylic fibres

5 to 10 per cent synthetic fibres

The estimated consumption of synthetic rubbers is regrouped in Table 1

.E/CN.14/INR/156

Page 30

TABLE 19

Consumption of synthetic rubbers (in ions)

Country

Morocco Algeria

Tunisia ) ■

Others countries

1965

11*500;

4,500

Total 16, ooo;

1970

8E6OO

24 r 300-

1975

22r300

16(900

39r200

1980

3Or'8OO

28,700

Based on the total demand for synthetic detergents,; and "by adopting a

reasonable hypothesis can be estimated the consumption of dodecylbenzine (DDB). We assume that the only active substance is and will continues to be sodium sulphoncte dodecylbenzine and that its content in weight in

the finished substance will gradually move from .25 to 20 per cent or less

The demands expressed in DD3 are given in Table 20 below,

TABLE 20 "•

Estimated' consumpti.on .of.;dodecyXbenzine.

Country

Morocco Algeria Tunisia

Libya '

UAR Sudan .

Total

2

3

■1

i

3

1965 ,

r500 r500 rooo 600 P400 200

r200

" ' . ' 1970

. 3r8OO

. ..".5r?00.

1,500 900 2,300 300

.14,000^

. . . .

6

.. 7

2 1

5

: 21 1975

tooo rooo cooo ,300 ,000 500

r800

1980

8r000 .9*000..

3 f 000 2,000 8 r900 800-

30 r800

Paced with the demand for the above-mentioned products, the production

projects are.still not many and with few exceptiorist the deficit is still even

with consumption* . t ■ . . ■■

The exceptions are:

- The production of PVC at I.. Kenitra (Morocco) with a capacity of 10,000

tons is expected to meet Morocco's needs up to 1975*

- The Alexandria complex with capacities of 15r000 tons of polyethylene

and 20r000 tons of PVC will meet UAR's need up to 1975; production capacities

cf synthetic fibres (51000 tons of acrylic fibres; and 41000 tons of nylon)

will meet the local, needs as well as the needs of the neighbouring countries up to 1975t and a production capacity of polybutadiene will neet almost the entire demand up to 1975*

- A dodecylbenzine is already being produced at Suez (UAR) and is capable

.of covering UAR's demand up to 1975-

ill.2..intermediate products consumption - production deficit

Based on the consumption of finished productsr we have estimated ;•

the consumption of intermediate products v/hile taking into

consideration the most recent1 production process and their output.

The table below summarizes the demand for the major intermediate productsB ethylener propyleneE butadienet benzine, paraxylene and ammonia whose demand is included in the synthetic fibres industry apart from that of the nitrogenous fertilizers,.

E/CN.14/INR/156

Page 32 .

TABLE 21

Potential demand for intermediate products

1

Ethylene Propylene Butadiene Benzine Para-xylene Ammonia

Morocco-Algeria-Tunisia

; 1975

• 36 500 13 600

: 17 800

27 309

; 4 500

' 181 900

,.-.. .—

1980

: 61 100

20 600

24 600

37 700

8 000 289 500' v

Other countries

'■ 1975

36 800 6 100 13 500 20 600

3 000 .

601 000'

1980

63 400 15 200 23 000 .31.400 4 500

780 066'

- Total

1975

73 300- 21 700 31 300 47 900 7; 500

782 960

1980

124 500

35 800 47 600 ... 69,.100.

12 500 069 500

It must be stressed that this demand -which corresponds to a local production of finished products exactly equal to the needs-, is only a theoretical view

and cannot reflect the very low consumption level.

The deficit.in the manufacture of these intermediate products can be considered only on the basis of projects for the local production of finished products.

For instance it is obvious that the entire ammonia required for the

production of nitrogenous fertilizers is intergrated and produced at the same

plant, : '

The same holds good for the already known productions at Kenitra (Morocco)

and Alexandria, Suez .(UAR) where the capacities required for intermediate

products have been anticipated.

- At Kenitra (Morocco) although still hazardous the production of ethylene

corresponding to a capacity of 10c000 tons of PVCr has been anticipated.

- At Alexandria (UAR.)C ethylene, the base product for polyethylene and PVC will be produced (capacity of 55»006 tons) as well as acrylonirile and caprolactamt

the base products for acrylic fibres and nylon. Only polybutadiene might be produced from imported and non ..locally produced butadiene. Similarlyr aromatics required for other related' productionst including dodecylbenzine

at Suez, will also be produced in adequate quantities (capacity of l8r000 tons).

IV. CHEMICALS

IV.1. Consumption, and production-.of. mineral acids and ammonia

The production of mineral acids (sulphuricr nitric and phosphoric)

and ammonia has two main features;

- their production is related (by over 90 per cent) to that of

' fertilizers: nitrogenous fertilizers for ammonia and nitric acidr phbsphatic fertilizers for sulphuric and phosphoric acid.

- Their production is captive and integrated into that of

.fertilizers. '

As a corollary, their production capacity is enough to meet the related production of fertilizers and through a small over production: can meet the manufacture of finished products:

^ soapsr detergentst metallurgies,textile or mining and quarrying' industries:for sulphuric acid.; explosives for nitric acid;

detergents "for phosphoric' acid; synthetic fibre's,- explosives "

for ammonia. Given these considerations, we have not studied the production" position of these products which is expected ' ■ a priori to "be balanced. *

IV.2. Consumption of chlorine and soda - Deficits in the coming years As the production process of"these two products is most often through eleclrolysis of Na'CI saltc the respective tonnages produced are of the same order of magnituder as indicated in Table 22. Howeverr almost all the total demand is met through local production. As soda controls the size of the market(the chlorine needed is a fortiori produced in adequate quantities.

e/cn.14/1NR/156 Page 34

■-

Morocco )

Algeria !

Tunisia ).

Other countries

Total '

Chlorine

7c000

16r000

23r000

L965

.TABLE 22 Consumption of chlorine

Soda -',

25

63 89

,500

500

000

(in tons)

1970 f .Chlorine

12,500

22r5OO

35cOOO

Soda

35f5OO

77i000

112r5OO

■and soda

1975

Chlorine

301000-

45,000

75f000

s

■■ Soda ■

50;

101 r

156,

000

500

500

1980

Dhlorine

" 42.

76,

. 118,

oco

000

000

Soda

70

133

203 000

000

000

The production capacities follow closely local demands except for soda imports.

For instance, for the highest consumer country - the UAR, the demand for soda

(70t000 tons in 197Of 90r000 tons in 1975) will be fully covered up to 1970 through the construction of. a new plant (with a capacity of 459OCO.tons of soda). The consumption of chlorine based in* the past on the pulp industry will increase, provided the PVC projects are taken into consideration (Kenitre in Moroccot Alexandria in the UAR): but for each of the latter an additional

production of chlorinet .and consequently of sodaP has been provided for.

In conclusion, the production position of chlorine "being balanced and even showing surplus since chlorine is often transformed into hydrochloric acid- a minimum deficit will be recorded in the consuming countriecc. Thin deficit will never exceed 10t000 tons after 1970 in each of the three major consuming countries namely Moroccor Algeria, and UAR.

PRODUCTION CAPACITIES TO BE PROJECTED

I. DEFINITION OF MEW PLANTS

1.1. Petroleum products - Refineries

1.1.1. General features of future production 1.1.2* Production capacities to "be projected 1.2. Fertilizers

I»2-l. General features of future production 1.2.2. Production capacities to be projected I.3« Petrochemicals

1.3-1. General features of future production 1-3*2. Projected capacities for finished products 1.3.3. Projected capacities for intermediate

products and future improvements

■ 1.4. Chemicals-

I-4-1. General features of future production 1.4.2. Future production capacities

II. FEATURES OF THE NEW CAPACITIES

■II. 1.- Common features

11.1.1, Investment cost compared with European cost 11.1.2. Cost and problems relating to utilities II o 1.3 • Import azico of manpower

11.2. Summary Tables.

11.2.1. Investment by types of industries and by countries

11.2.2. Utilities by countries,; by types of

^ industries

11.2.3. Manpower by countries and by types of industries

11.3. Details on technico-economic data 11.3.1. Refineries

11.3.2. Nitrogenous fertilizers

II-3.3. Petrochemicals: steam-crackings

11.3.4. Nylon

36 36

37

38 38

39

40 40 41 43

48 48 49

49 49

51 52 52

52

56

56

57

57 58

58 58

E/CN.14/INR/156

Page 36 .

PRODUCTION CAPACITIES TO BE PROJECTED

We have therefore seen from the previous chapters the gap that remains to be bridged between the projected demand and the existing or announced productions. We have provided to tho extent possible for new production capacities wnich can approximately correct the deficits in each'country or in all the six countries.

I, DEFINITION OF HEW PLANTS

I.I. Petroleum products - Refineries

I.I.I* General £eature_s_ojf f\rture_production ' ' "

As regards the total demand for petroleum productsE the capacities to be projected are expected to bridge the gap in each country through the extension of the existing refineries or through the construction of new refineries,

1

As indicated in Table 8f only Algeria's production

position will show surplus; we have' therefore envisaged

five new plants in the five other countries (Morocco,.

Tunisiar Libyar UAR and Sudan) at various dates before 1980. When the already existing refi.-ieries permit exten

sions to their installations and increase in their

capacities[this solution will apparently be preferred to the construction of other refineries. This is the case of Tunisia and SucUji. - Ac regards the other two countries - Morocco and. UAR -- the extension of old refineries or the construction of new plants can be envisaged,, • In- the case of Libya a new refinery appears to be preferable.

For all the economic calculationsB we have'assumed that the existing plants would be extended.

Apart from the already confirmed project at Arzev; (Algeria) whose production is geartd to e^portsc the production

capacities tc be projected are riainly intended to cover local needs in petroleum products. That will not impede trade flowse for instance the exports of products and imports of heavy products or vice versa.

1.1.2. Pr£ducti_on_capaciti.ej3 .to_b£ ,p.ro j^cted

We have outlined the deficits in petroleum products by . 1980 in the five countries concerned--

Morocco Tunisia Libya.

UAR Sudan

1 350 700 950 2 200 550

000 000 000 000 000

tons tons tons tons tons

.As regards these deficits,. Table 23 summarises the projected capacities,their sit3s; their starting date?: >^.d thei:? . main units,,

TABLE 23

Additional refinery capacities to be projected

Site

! Mohamrr.edia (Morocco),

or a new refinery

j Bizerta

! (Tunisia)

{ Port Brege (Libya)or a new j refinery

(UAH) or a

refinery

Port Sudan

(Sudan)

Capacity in tons- annum

(topping)

1.500r000

Main units

Approximate capacity

in tons/annum

Suitable start ing date

Reforming (300t000)!' After 1970

800,000

lr000r000

Reforming (180,000) Unifining (l80,,000)

Reforming (2OOr000)

3f000t000 ■ Reforming catalytic cracking visbr^eaking

(400rOOO) (250^000) (300r000)

1000 ;

Reforming (l80r0C0)

Aftev 1970

-I

After 1970 I

After 1975

After 1970

E/CN.14/INR/156

Page 38 '

If the figures of this Table are compared with those of the estimated deficits, it appears that the projected refineries in Morocco- Tunisia and Libya will ultimately tv.eet the needs of these countries up to 1980, For the UAR and. Sudan, there will be a sizable surplus capacity.; we have in ^act adopted a

hypothesis favouring the demand for petroleum products particularly

residual fuel oil in these two countries and which could bring

the deficits to 2E6OOrOOO tons in the UAR and 800r000 tons in Sudan by 198Ot instead of lr800t000 tons and 500f000 tons respectively'. Eased on these hypot'hesisr the two refineries

can meet the needs.

1.2. Fertilizers

1.2.1. General features on future product ion

Unlike the petroleum products,- the fertilizer industry is

marked by a considerable volume of tradeo At present, all countries are importers of nitrate fertilisers,; and either import or export

phosphated fertilizers ou a large scale, .We havec ?.s far as possible, madei provision for new production-capacities to meet- ■•

local demands r. at least partially (nitrate fertilizers in the case . of Sudan), and although we have not remedied all shortfalls,

there is a surplus-in the region as a wholer which enables us to

■■ export to countries with a deficiency (nitrate fertilizers to

Morocco; phosphated fertilizers'to Lib5ra and Sudan).

As the main sources of wealth in these countries are natural gas

(Algeria^ Libya especially), and natural i.hcsr.h^te (Morocco,,

Tunisia in particular), the developrcet of these assets'is essential.

Algeria has already considered exporting ammonia and nitrate fertilizers from Arzew- Tunisia and Morocco at present export phosphated fertilizers and these exports will increase in the future. l.:e estimate that Libya; with its >:jserves of low-cost natural gasf will achieve a surplus production of ammonia and nitrate fertilisers,, tiie bulk of v;hich will be directed towards the export market■

1.2.2. Pr^duct^^capac^tie£.to_be_ projected

Surplus or deficit in the six countries by I98O is indicated.in TaUie.:24;^ tliis. is expressed in tons of nitrogenous.fertilizers and tons of P? 0,..

TABLE 24

Surplus or deficit in the demand for fertilizing substances by 1980

Morocco Algeria Tunisia Libya UAR Sudan

Total

Tons of nitrogene

20 (000 + 10i000 + 5r000 . - . 15.000 + 20 1000 - 100 tOOO

- 100 rOOO

Tons of P 0

+ 360 ,000 ■ + 60 rOOO + 190r000 - 12 rOOO + 80 rOOO ■ - 30 rOOO

+ 65OrOOO •'■'■ "

As the production, position of phosphatic fertilizers clearly shows surplus for the region as a whole and the acute deficits in the two countries

(Libya and Sudan) do not justify the establishment of phosphatic complexes

which are expected to produce triple superphosphatet no production capacities for phosphatic fertilizers have1 been provided for.

Table 25 indicates the projected'capacities which will meet Sudan's needs

by I98O and enable Libya to be an exporter.

E/CN.14/INR/156

Page 40

TABLE 25

New nitrogenous-fertilizer capacity

Site

Libya coast (Libya)*

Port Brega for instance

Sudanese coast (Sudan) Port Sudan, for

instance

to be projected

Capacity in tons of .nitrogene'. ...

230,000

, 110,00a - !

3S

St art ing

■ date

By 1970

By--1970

As in the Arzew complex,; about 50 per cent of the production of ammonia alone would be transformed into fertilizer and the other half will be sold in the form of ammonia.

1.3. Petrochemicals

1.3*1. General features of future production

Depending upon the finished products considered, the

projected production capacities will meet national or

multinational needs. For instance^ in the case of synthetic fibres, we ■ have endeavoured to meet part or the entire needs of the individual countries.

Much more than for the refineries or the production of

fertilizers,,. comes up the idea of minimum economic capacity

which makes it impossible to consider meaningfully the

production of plastics in some countries or synthetic

rubber for all the countries.

For the intermediate products.c. if the tonnages demanded are very smallf we have taken into account their imports rather than their; local, production.... As. regards ; their." production, the latter has been integrated into.the related production.

- Steam-crackings for ethylene with a view to producing polyethylenec PVCC dodecylbenzineP.

- Production of aromatics for caprdlactam,. with a view to

producing nylon. - '

The only features common to this already announced or projected production continue to be mainly their purpose to meet the needs of the six countries in the region and their close- ' dependence on the market of the country where they have been established.

I»3»2* Capacities to be projected for the finished products The finished products concerned are':

- Major plastics (polyethylener PVC)

- Synthetic fibres (nylon,, polyestersE acrylic)

- Synthetic rubbers

- Dodecylbenzine for producing synthetic detergents.

The existing plants at Kenitra (Morocco) Suez and Alexandria (UAR) will enable similar production and related productions

to increase. For new plants to be projectedf we have taken into consideration the proximity of the raw materials and that of the market of the1 finished products (ca3e of steam-crackingsr

product i on of,aromat i cs).

Table 26 and 27 summarize the capacities to be projected or those already announced for polyethylener PVCt synthetic fibres^

dodecylbenzine in 1975 and 1980. - '

A production capacity for synthetic rubber will become

operational in Alexandria (UAH) and is expected to produce

12r000 tons of polybutadiene. The region1 sdeficit in synthetic

rubbers does not justify the establishment of a new production, ' because of the low level of consumption and the high price of

the available materials (styrenec butadiene).

E/CN.14/INR/156

Page 42 -

TABLE 26

Production capacities of polyethylenef PVC and dodecylbenzine "by 1975 and 1980

.(in tons)

1975

Polyethylene 1980

1975

FVC

1980

1975

Dodecylbenzine 1980

Morocco

15T000

10,000 "

(Kenitra)

15t000

_

Algeria

15 rooo

20 P000

'"■"'15,666

'20,000

10,000"

10t000

; .." ,,UAR :

I5rooo

(Alexandria)

35 tooo

20r000

(Alexandria)

35r000

6r000

(Suez)...

10,000

' Total report

30 ,poo

70 ,.ooo

45(000

70r000

16,000

20t000

The total demand for polyethylene and FVC in the region will

"be covered by I98O and will be virtually met by 1975*

The productions of- dodecylbenzine which will be below the demand by 1975 and. 19^0 takes into consideration the rapid development of active substance content in synthetic detergents, Assuming a lower contentt therefore total demand for low- content .dodecylbensine, the projected capacities will virtually

meet the region's needs by I98O-

TABLE .27

Production capacities of synthetic fibres by 1973 and 1980 (in tons)

Morocco Algeria Tunisia ....

Libya UAR

Sudan

Total

Nylon '

1975 "" '

5,000 7roop

...2foo6. •

41000

.Alexandria)

>l8t000

i960

6r000

■ 10 r000 . :

■ 2,000 3r000 7r000

3r000

31P000

Polyesters

.. ...1975

7Eoo

-

7rOCX 0

)

.1980..

4rO00

■ 10:000

1 -

14[00C

. !.. - 1 -.- -.

)

Acrylics

...1975

-

5r000

(Alexandria)

5f000 =

t

1980

-

8 f000

8,000 ~

The total demand for all .the maih synthetic fibres will be met by 1975 and .1980._By .1980 .all the. countries-(exoept-Morocco- and UAR probably)"will: Met

their needs in nylon, as the demand for polyester fibres will be normally met by Moroccan and Algerian productions and that of acrylic fibres through

production at Alexandria in the UAR,

1-3.3. CajMicit ies_t o £e_p£O2e-ct£d_for_the_int:£rmediatj:

£roauct^s_and_future j^m^ort s

Ij'e can inferf from the capacities concerning the finished products^ the consumption of the corresponding intermediate

products:

'■

- Ethylene for po]yethylenet PVCE polyester fibres^ (via ethyleneglycol)

- Propylene for dodecylbenzinef acrylic fibres (via acrylonitrile)

- Butadiene for polybutadiene

- Benzine for dodecylbenzine; nylon (via caprolactam)

- Para-xylene for polyester fibres.

E/CN.14/INR/156

Page 44

Tables 28 and 29 indicate these estimated consumptions for 1975 and 198O. These consumptions are below the theoretical potential consumptions which have befeiT estimated'in' the market study since they meet only local production, although

they are objective analysis.

I TABLE 28 \

Consumption of "intermediate products with an eye to the local production of finished goods by 1975

Year 1975

Morocco Algeria Tunisia Libya : UAR

Sudan

Total

Ethylene

5,400 27r10O

27fOOO.

59,500

Propylene

12c85O

16r000

28f850

Butadiene

13r000

13t000

Benzine

6r8OO 13,900 2r400

9^500

32t600 ■

Fara-xy.l-ene

5r6OO

5r6OO

TABLE 29

,\

Consumption of- -intermediate- products with.an -eye

to the local production of finished products by I98O

Year 1980

Morocco : Algeria Tunisia Libya

UAR :

Sudan

Total

/ '_■....

■

Ethylene

■ 25r 900 36f400

. 56t6OO

118,900

Propylene

12,850

26 r100 .

38,950

Butadiene

13 rooo '

13c000

Benzine

l8r250 2(400 3.r6OO

' 16;."000

3 600

"■ 52t.35O

Para-xylene

3,200 8P000

i

1 ■

:. ]

As soon as the minimum economic capacity is obtaiilec

chapter later on) at becomes: more interesting to prc

intermediate products locally than to import theiji, . projected plants are limited' to the major consumers Algeria. UAR. UAR has already provided,for:a steam

.1 r200

. (cf.

)duce The . Moroccot cracking

at Alexandria and a production of aromaticsiat Suez"which would

have adequate capacities up to 1975 and through extensions up to

I98O. The steam-crackings would have economic sizes by 1975

in Algeria and "by-1980 in Morocco. Production of;aromatics

will become profitable in Algeria by 1980, in view of the

greater demand for caprolactam.

Table 30 gives the capacities of intermediate products and their sites, :

-0 TABLE30■ Minimumproductioncapacitiesofintermediate productstobeprojectedfor1975and

4 ON-P*

VJ1 Site Steam-cracking

Morocco (Kenitra)

Steam-cracking Algeria(Algiersor Arzew) Steam-cracking

UAR (Alexandria)

Productionof aromaticsAlgeria

(Algiers or Arzeu)

Productionof aromatics

UAR (Suez)

Products Ethy-lene Ethylene Propylene Ethylene Propylene Benzine Para-xylene BTX

Capacities by1975 24r300 12fi85O 27r000.

>7r7OO '

^4r500 5r6OO ^18E000

(BTX a Suez)

Capacities by1980 -24r3OO .32r4O0 ;7>12r850 :56r600 26t200 >l6r7OO 8r000 >l8t000

Rav;materials

Propane (53.300)

Propane;

63roob (l'975)

84r000(198 Napht.a

91r5OO (1975) 190f000 (19&

Effluentsfrom refineries

o) o)

j Effluentsfrom .refineries

Finished products Polyethylene PVC Polyethylene PVC

Sfthylene-glycoi

Dodecylbenzine Polyethylene PVC Dodecylbenzine Acrylonitrile Dodecylbenzine Nylon Polysters Dodecylbenzine Nylon

Despite the "beginning of the production of intermediate products, there wiH still be deficits up to 198O in most of the countries in the region (except. Algeria and UAR).

Other "base products for the finished products are expected to "be imported and not produced locally (caprole.ctamf ethylene~glycol)c

Table 31 and 32 numnarize the imports of all the intermediate

products by 1975 and 1980* : ;

Year 1975

Morocco Algeria Tunisia Libya UAR Sudan

Imports

TABLE 31

of Monomeric finished products

(on capacities producing at 100 Der cent)

Ethylene -*PVC

polyethylene

5,400

Benzine -^insecti

cides

700

Caprolactam

5, ,500

7*7.00

2: 200

Para-xylene -^polyesters

Ethylene-..

glycol -^polyesters

.-. "• j

2Faoo

E/CN.14/INR/156

Page 48

TABUS ;32 ■ ■

Imports of Monorneric finished product on-Capacities ^^oducin^ a'o 100 pe

Year 1980.

Morocco Algeria Tunisia Libya UAR Sudan

1,4

Ethylene -*PVC

polyethylene

. Chemicals

Benzine -^insecti--

, cide-s

1,200

■

■ ■

■

I.4«l. General features

. Caprolactair -^Nylon 6

:;;;g6o

" ■

^200 3,330

3*300

of production

Para-xylene -^-polyesters

:,72oo

Ethylene-

^lycol -^polyesters

1,600

■

With regard to mineral acids (sulphyricen/.tric ar.d

phosphatic) and ammorAa;. we have observed the very marked

features of the integration of their production with that of nitrogenous or phorjphatic fertilisers. As a corollaryt as soon an o. fertiliser complex is £;at up:. the t.ianufacture.- -.

of the base product ctsr-tst hence snr.all iv.ter-country trade covering orly marginal quantities-, This phenomenon is usual for these -/.roduci-s except probaoly for ammonia which appears as a main raw material and could from a basis for a considerable trade.

Similarly, the production of chlorins and soda axe integrated

into the related production (cellulose and. paper industry)

production of PVC)* On the other hand- soda is considerably

marketed and this make:: it possible an regards the often surplus chlorine -• position - to meet part of the demand.

.4•2.

New plants have not been envisaged for mineral acidsf ammoniat soda as well as chlorine. The production of ammonia and nitric acid will "be integrated into the projected nitrogcnbus'fertiliaer complexes as well as those of the already announced sulphuric acidf phosphoric acid"in the manufacture of phosphatic fertilizers.

Chlorine will be produced in adequate quantities in the existing capacities. Its production was planned for its use

in'PVC which increases'the 'quantities' of soda available in the countries concerned (HoroccoP Algeriat UAR). The

remaining-.small •■deficit...of soda hc.s not-been-brddgedc - - - for it can; be assumed that these related industries which

closely depend on them (celluloser paper) can meet them

in the coming years. . . .

II. ■ FEATURES OF THE NEW CAPACITIES ILL. Common features

II .1.1 -iriyej3tmerit_cost_ "_cbVnpared_wrt'h European_cost.

To pass from the construction cost in Europe to the . : construction cost in the six countries concernedF one attributes;to the former a global increased factor which, takes into consideration the peculiar conditions of these two regions. This total factor is calculated on the basis of increased factors appropriate to each heading which comprises the total cost of a plant. They are:

- The cost of the equipment rele.ted.to the volume of packing and the quantity bought locally

- Transport expenses in terms of distance

- Cost of mounting works depending upon expatriate manpower needs

*>

- Civil engineering expenses - Bursary and utilities expenses - Supervisory expenses

- Initial outlay expenses.

The last three expenses also depend on expatriate manpower needs*