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Canada: Weaker than Expected Real GDP Growth in the Second Quarter

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ECONOMIC NEWS

Desjardins, Economic Studies: 514‑281‑2336 or 1 866‑866‑7000, ext. 5552336 • desjardins.economics@desjardins.com • desjardins.com/economics

NOTE TO READERS: The letters k, M and B are used in texts and tables to refer to thousands, millions and billions respectively.

IMPORTANT: This document is based on public information and may under no circumstances be used or construed as a commitment by Desjardins Group. While the information provided has been determined on the basis of data obtained from sources that are deemed to be reliable, Desjardins Group in no way warrants that the information is accurate or complete. The document is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale. Desjardins Group takes no responsibility for the consequences of any decision whatsoever made on the basis of the data contained herein and does not hereby undertake to provide any advice, notably in the area of investment services. The data on prices or margins are provided for information purposes and may be modified at any time, based on such factors as market conditions. The past performances and projections expressed herein are no guarantee of future performance. The opinions and forecasts contained herein are, unless otherwise indicated, those of the document’s authors and do not represent the opinions of any other person or the official position of Desjardins Group. Copyright © 2021, Desjardins Group. All rights reserved.

Canada: Weaker than Expected Real GDP Growth in the Second Quarter

By Mikhael Deutsch-Heng, Macroeconomist

HIGHLIGHTS

f Real GDP fell 1.1% (annualized) in the second quarter, well below consensus expectations for a 2.5% annualized gain.

f This weak reading is largely due to a 15.0% decline in exports of goods and services, which dragged down the quarterly annualized variation by 4.8 percentage points. In other words, if exports had been flat, real GDP would have been up 3.7%

instead of down 1.1%.

f Investment in residential structures (‑12.4%) and government investment (‑7.7%) were also disappointing. But investment in non‑residential structures, machinery and equipment (+12.1%) and intellectual property products (+3.3%) posted solid growth.

f Household spending, which accounts for slightly more than half of GDP, edged up just 0.2%.

f Real GDP by industry grew 0.7% in June, but Statistics Canada’s preliminary result for July shows a 0.4% decline.

COMMENTS

The Canadian economy severely underperformed in the second quarter. Though much of the 1.1% contraction was due to a steep decline in exports, most other GDP components posted relatively weak numbers as well, as public health restrictions remained in place in most provinces.

Slowing home sales weighed heavily on growth. The drop in investment in residential structures was due entirely to home ownership transfer costs (‑54.2%), while new construction (+13.5%) and renovation (+9.9%) rose sharply once again. Overall investment in residential structures could continue to hold back

ECONOMIC STUDIES | AUGUST 31, 2021

growth in the third quarter, while home sales should continue to moderate.

IMPLICATIONS

In addition to the disappointing second quarter figures, the preliminary result for July also grabbed our attention. If it proves accurate, it could signal to the Bank of Canada (BoC) that the output gap is closing later than expected. However, the July slowdown could easily be offset by stronger GDP growth in subsequent months. Inflation also remains very high. We therefore don’t think today’s number will prevent the BoC from continuing to cut back its asset purchases in October.

GRAPH

Despite the reopening of the economy, preliminary results show that real GDP fell 0.4% in July

Sources: Statistics Canada and Desjardins, Economic Studies Real GDP by industry In 2012 $B

0.3% -7.5% -11.0% 4.5% 6.0% 2.7% 1.1% 0.8% 0.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 1.3% -0.9% -0.5% 0.7% -0.4%

1,600 1,650 1,700 1,750 1,800 1,850 1,900 1,950 2,000 2,050

JAN. APR. JUL. OCT. JAN. APR. JUL.

2020 2021

Preliminary result

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