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The Unemployment Rate Remains Low in Quebec and Ontario in December
By Joëlle Noreau, Senior Economist
HIGHLIGHTS
f In Quebec, part of November’s job gains (+45,500) were erased in December, retreating by 6,200. Losses were observed in part-time work.
f The unemployment rate, which in November had reached the level seen in February 2020 (4.5%), ticked up to 4.6%. The province is still in the lead, with the lowest unemployment rate in Canada.
f In Ontario, 46,900 jobs were added in December. This is the seventh monthly gain in a row. Advances were made in both part-time and full-time work.
f The unemployment rate dipped from 6.4% in November to 6.0% in December.
COMMENTS
December’s data do not reflect the stricter measures introduced by the Quebec and Ontario governments at the end of the month, as shown by the Labour Force Survey (from the 5th to the 11th). In Quebec, gains were mostly observed in construction (+13,900), while the greatest losses were in healthcare and social assistance (-12,100). In Ontario, advances were essentially made in wholesale and retail trade (+17,900) as well as manufacturing (+16,200).
We now have a full picture, with gains from December 2020 to December 2021 at 158,300 for Quebec and 412,700 for Ontario. The monthly average for job creation is 13,192 and 34,392, respectively. Employment seesawed over 12 months, as shown in the graph. The difficult start to 2021, with strict lockdown measures, was followed by an uneven catch-up over the following months.
ECONOMIC STUDIES | JANUARY 7, 2022
IMPLICATIONS
The ongoing pandemic and rapid spread of the Omicron variant brushes off the past, leaving us wondering about 2022.
As in 2021, the beginning of the year looks to be slower than in previous months. However, the expected decrease in employment should be less pronounced than last year’s given the softer public health measures right now. The number of workers should increase afterwards, in keeping with the lifting of public health measures. The new gains will be difficult to accumulate due to an aging workforce and labour shortages. Job vacancy rates are already at record highs and partly account for the current and future labour market woes.
GRAPH
Monthly employment seesawed in 2021
Sources: Statistics Canada and Desjardins, Economic Studies Monthly variation in employment In thousands of employment
-200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200
JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEP. OCT. NOV. DEC.
Quebec Ontario
2021
