137 فر ود / MÂAREF Revue académique
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د ار س ز د ل : ه ا و ، ا ا ا ل ا ر أ أ ارد إ ا ا ف ا او ا ا ا ا ، او ا ى ا أ جذ ك ا VECM ا ت ا ة ا ا ا ا ل و ا 1986 -2016 م ار ا و ، ا ا ت ا ا ا ل ل ، ا ى ا ا أ ذإ ، ا ى ا ا ت ي و ا تا ث ة ع ر ا ا ت ا ر او ا ا ل ع ر ا ا و و ا ا ا ثو : ا ت ا جذ ، ا ل ، ا VECM ي ا ا ا ق ، Abstract ;
The aim of this paper is to Study the Impact of oil price on Unemployment in Algeria, and analyses the relationship Between unemployment and Oil price in the short and long run, the study uses a Co-integration approach applying the VECM Model and using an annual Time Series of Oil price and unemployment rate From 1986 to 2016, the Study found that Oil price Doesn’t affect Unemployment in the short run, However in the long run There is a fort negative correlation of Unemployment in Algeria with oil fluctuations prices, While oil price shock effects on increasing of unemployment after three years, and the rise of unemployment rate will continue until achieve their High Level after five years from this shock.
Key Words; Oil price, unemployment rate, VECM Model, Algeria Labor
Market. : نا ا را ا د ا ا ا أ او د ا ة ا او ا يد ا ى ا ،ت
ـــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــ
ذ أ - أ ف – ا ذ أ أ - ف – او د نو ا أ رو دا أ نأ ، ا و ر ر ا ةو او ا ز ا د و م س او ة و ذ ل ا ن اذإ ا ى ا أ ،ل أ ة ن و ة أ بر ا درا ا ار يأ ا ى ا ء ت ء ا نأ ا ت او ا ء ا ، د او ا ا ا ى ا در ا ا دا او ا ن ا ت را ر ا ا داد و ، نو و ا ا ا ا ت و ، ا ى ا ا ا ا يأ ةء س ت ذإ ، د او ا هدرا ا ا ى و د ت ا ف ا د ا ا ا ا ا ا او يد ا ا ي ا ا م و ع را نأو ، ا يد ا ا ة و ا ا تا ن ذإ ، ا س د ا و ،ر ا را و ا م ل ا ر ا ما او او ر ا و ة ا او ، ا ا ا ا و ،ةاو ا ل ا ة ا ه تر او او يد ا نزا ا ة ا وأ ا نا ا ءا ا د ا ا ت و ا ءا ا هد ا ا ا ق و را ي ا ا د ا ،ي ا ا ا د ا أ ا ع ا ي ا ت و ا ع ر ا و ا ا ، ا تارد ا ا ا تارد ا ا ا ر ر ت و ا ع ، ا ا درا د ا ع ا ا ا د ا د ا د ا ر أ ي ا ع ر ن و ، ا ر او ا ا ا ا ا ا ا ا ا ا ا ا ا ه و ذ د ا د ا أ ي ا ا ا ا ا إ ف ا و ر ة ا د ا ا و ا ت ا ا ء ءادأ ا و ، ا ر ت 30 % دو ت ت ا ا ق و ، ا ه لو ا ا ت رد ا ة ا ا ت ء ا ر نأو ا ز ا ،ت او 2008 ا ر أ ق و ، أ ل بر ا ر أ ت أ دو ة ا ه ا ر أ تر ا ا 2014 ت 147 ر ود دأ ى 30 ا دو ة و ذ و ر ود 45
ت او ر آ ا ق او ا تا ا ه نأ ، ر ود ا ا ا ا ه ر ا ، مأ ءا ا ت د نا ا د ا ا د و : ا : ا ا ر ا ا ء ؟ ا ا ا ا ر أ ر ا أ ا ت ار ا : و ، ا راو ، ا ق و ا ق ا م ا ع ا ا ، ا ق ت ا ر أ ت ا ن ا ا ق ا تا او تادا ر ا د ا ه ا و تا ا ر ن او ت أ ا ت ار ا ، ا ءا ص ا و م ا د ا تا ا ر أ :ت ار ا ز أ و ، ا وأ ا لو ا ارد Marco Lorusso و Luca Pieroni ) 2015 نا ( ": Causes and
Consequences of Oil Price Shocks On the UK Economy ه ا ،" أ جذ ما ة ا ا د ا ا ر أ ب أ ار ا ا ا ط ر ا VAR ا ت ا 01 / 1976 إ 12 / 2014 ، ز أ ن و ا ةد ز يد ا ض ض ا نأ ا ا ا ض او ا ا ع را ا ر أ ع را نأو ،يد ا ارد ، زا ا Phakama Senzangakhona و Ireen Choga ) 2015 او ،( " :نا Crude Oil Prices and Unemployment in South Africa: 1990–
2010 ا ت ا ر ا ا ار ا ه و ،" ا أ جذ او ا ى ا ا ب VECM ة ، ار ا 1990 إ 2010 د د و ز أ و ، ا ر ا ت را نأ يأ ، ا ى ا او ا ى ا ا ل و ، ا ى ا را و ا ى ا ا ل ض ا إ يد ا ارد Mohamed Hedi Bchir و
Jose antonio pedosa-Garcia ) 2015 ت ر ،( ارد ار ا ه ا ا أ 2014 ا ر أ ر ا ا ةدر ا لو ا نأ ا و ، ا لو ا ت د ا ر اد ا ت او ةر ا لو ا هر أ ر ا تد ا ه أ ، ا ر ا لو ا ا ع را ا ر ا ار ا ، ا ى ا ةر ا ارد Pushpa Negi ) 2015 أ ار ا ي ا ( لود يد ا ا ا BRIC ا ت ا جذ م ا و ، Panel Data او ا ور زا ا ة ا ل 1987 -2014 ،
لود م ا ا ا او ا د د و إ ه BRIC ، ر او ا ا ا د و إ او ور د د وو ن ن ود ن ود ر زا ، ن ر و ن ارد Mohd Shahidan Shaaria ،
Nor Ermawati
Hussainb و
Hafizah Abdul Rahima )
2013 " :نا ( The Effects of Oil Price
Changes And Exchange Rate Volatility On Unemployment: Evidence From Malaysia ار ا ه ،" ت و ا تا أ جذ ا ، ا ف ا VAR و VECM ت أو ر ا نأ ، او ف ا د و م تار ا ى ا زا د و م أ ك ا ن و ا ارد ،ف ا و ا Fawad Ahmad ) 2013 " :نا ( The Effect of
Oil Prices on Unemployment: Evidence from Pakistan
ه ا ،"
ار ا Toda and Yamamanto
ة ا ت 01 / 1991 إ 12 / 2010 ر أ أ ارد ف أ د و ،ن ا ا ا ر أ ما ا و ا ل ا ر ي ارد ، ا ى ا ا ت Miloud Lacheheb و Abdalla Sirag ) 2012 ":نا ( Oil price and inflation in Algeria: A nonlinear ARDL
approach ذو ا ا ا ر أ تا ار ا ه ت ا ،" ا ا ت ز ا اذ ا ا ط ر ا جذ ما NARDL ا ت ا 1970 إ 2014 ا د و إ و ، ، ا ا ا ا ر أ ع ر د و ، ا ا ا و ارد Cherifa Bouchaour & Hussein Ali Al-Zeaud )
2012 " :نا ( Oil Price
Distortion and Their Impact on Algerian Macroeconomic او ،" و ا ر أ تار ا ع جذ ي ا ا د ا تا أ VECM ة ا ل ت 1980 -2011 ار ا ه ا ، أو ، او ا ا ا ر ا ى ا إ أ د و ا ر أ نأ ، ا ل و ة ا ضو او ا ا ي ا M2 ، ارد Sohbi Farhani ) 2012 ع را أ ار ا ه ت ر ،( جذ ا ، ا د ا ا ر أ VAR ا ر أ أ ا م ا ا ا ا Real GDP و ،ة ا ت ا د ، ا ة ا ت ا د ا ا ر أو م ا ا ا ا ارد Tuncay Çelik و Birol Akgü ) 2011 تا ار ا ه ف ا ،( ما ا ذ أ و د ا ر أ VAR ت ة ا 2005 -2010 د ا ع ر ا نأ إ و ، 1 % ا ى ع را 1,26 % ارد ، Muhammad Usman و Raja Mohsin Nawaz و Mujtaba Qayyum ) 2011 ب ا أ ار ا ا ف ،(
ا د ا تا ا ا ر أ جذ ما ا د ا VAR ا ا او ا ا ر أ د و ا أ ، ا لاودو ،م ا ارد Andreas Benedictow ، Daniel Fjærtoft و Ole Løfsnæs ) 2010 " :نا ،( Oil dependency of the Russian economy: an
econometric analysis ة او ا ا ب أ ار ا ه ا ،" ت 1995 و 2008 إ و ، و ا د ا ا ر و ا د ا نأ ار ا ه ا ا ا ا ر أ ع ر نأ ت يأ ، او ةدر ا لو ا او ا و او ا و يد ا ا ة و و ا ا ش ا ا ر أ ع را نأ ، ا ق ا ا د ع را ا ر ع ر ا ا ع را ا و ةدر او ا لو ا او ا ت و ،نا ا ه د ا ءادأو ل ا إ ا ج ا ا ا ر أ ع را ن ذ ا ص و يد ا ةر او ا لو ا ر ا را ا و ا ء ص او لو ا و ةدر ا تاد ا ا ا ر أ ر ا ، ا لو ا ر ا ، ةر ا ا ز و أ ج ا ر ا را ا و ا ة ا و و يد ا د ا ا ر ا ر أ ر ا ،ج ا ض ا ر ا او ا ت و يد ا ا ة و و لو ا ع ا :ت او تا ا ا ا ا ا ل ى ارد او ا ار ا ه ل لو ر ا ا ا ا ا ة ء إ لو ، ا ر أ ت تأ او ا ر أ 2014 ا ا ا ا ت ا أ جذ ل VECM ا را ا ار م ، ر ا ما ا
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test ) ADF ر ا و ( Phillips-Perron test ) PP ر م ،(
Johansen Cointegration Test
م ، ا ا او ا ا زا د و ا
ا أ جذ
Vector Error Correction Model ) VECM ( ا ى ا ا ت ب و ا لاود م نأ ة ا ا ت ا ا ار ا ه 1986 -2016 ، ي او ي ا م ا ا تا ا ) ا ةرادا ت ت ة
Energy information administration و ( ا ي ا ا ل ) و ا ا ت ة WDI (
" ا ل UNEM " ر ا ل دا و " LUNEM " " ا و OP " ر ا ل دا و " LOP " : ا ا ار ا ار ا ه ا ا أ ا را ا و ا ا ا ت ار ا ا ا ه ، ا ه ء ، ردو ور ا ا را ا رد ذو ا تا ا س ا ا جذ ا د ا ، او ا ا ا را ا م إ ا ا د ا ا و ا را ا د ا تا ا ،م ا ه ا ر ا و ، ا ى ا ADF(1979) ر او PP(1988) أ ، تار ا ى د و ي ا ض ا ر ا ا ض ، را ا ارد ا ة ا نأ يأ ة و ر ) ر لو ا 01 را ا تار ا :( ر ا ت و ا و ا ا ا جذ ا ا ADF PP ADF PP -4.60** -4.55** -1.11 -0.96 I Lunem IIIII -0.30-1.62 -1.61-0.30 -5.18**-4.63** -5.12**-4.68** -5.20** -5.20** -1.36 -1.37 I Lop IIIII -0.51-1.42 -1.49-0.50 -5.16**-5.24** -5.16**-5.24** ** ي ر ا 1 % :ر ا ا دا ا ا ل ر ور ا ا نأ إ ه أ لو ا ا LUNEM ا ر و LOP ر ا ا ن ا ADF و PP ) ر ا ا ا و 01 ي او ( تا ة ا ا ل و ا 1986 -2016 و ، ا نأ إ لو ا ر ا ت و ا را ا تار ا ير ا ن ،لو ا ق ا ADF و PP اد 0 01 ، ا ر و LOP و ا ل ر LUNEM و ر ا 1 رد و لو ا ق ا ور ا ا نأ ا )ن ر ا نأ ، ا 1991 د و ا (
ذ و ، ا ا جذ ا ت رد د نأ VAR جذ ز ة او رد ل نأ إ ه دأ ا ، VAR ) ر لو ا 02 ا ت رد :(
Lag LogL LR FPE AIC SC HQ
0 -31.07969 NA 0.033563 2.281358 2.375654 2.310891 1 25.09348 100.7243* 0.000920* -1.316792* -1.033903* -1.228194* 2 27.97211 4.764642 0.001000 -1.239456 -0.767975 -1.091794 :ر ا ا دا إ لو ا ر ا ا و ا ل ك ا ن ر ا ) ر 03 ( ، ا ا ا ل و ا ا زا د و ر ا trace Test ر ا 0 ر ا ا ه و 1 ، ر ا ا ض ا ل 0 ا د و ا يأ ا ل و ، ا ر ا أ ا ر ا ي ا ض 1 ي او ا و ا ل ا د و ) ر لو ا 03 ك ا ن ر ا( Sample (adjusted): 1988 2016
Included observations: 29 after adjustments Trend assumption: Linear deterministic trend Series: LUNEM LOP
Lags interval (in first differences): 1 to 1 Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)
Hypothesized Trace 0.05
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**
None * 0.573875 25.88210 15.49471 0.0010
At most 1 0.038696 1.144464 3.841466 0.2847
Trace test indicates 1 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level **MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values :ر ا ا دا إ ر ا ل ر ر ي ا ا أ جذ م زا د وو ة او رد د و ا أ ، ا ا جذ ا ، ا ا : ا
D(LUNEM) = - 0.33*( LUNEM(-1) + 0.63*LOP(-1) - 5.08 ) + 0.25*D(LUNEM(-1)) - 0.0009*D(LOP(-1)) + 0.01 : ا و ) يو ا -0.33 ي و و ( 1 % ، و لو ا ا ا ل ا ل ف ا لو ا ا نأ ،ي و م د ا ا ا ر نأ ا و ، ا ا ا ا ا ل ا ا ا د ا ط را م ذ و ، ا ا ر أ ا ر أ ي ا د ا د او ل ا سأر ق ا د ا د ا ذ إ ، ا ا و ر ا ا ا ا ا ا او (م ا ق ا ت ) د ا و ا ا ي ا ا ا ق ا ر أ ا أ ل ا ا ا ل ا ت لو ل ، ا ر أ ت ا ا ا ل ط را و ،تا أ ز تا ث ا ل ) 35 % ( و ، ا 5 ت ا ر أ تا ) ا بر ا ل 65 % و ،( 10 ا تا ق ا ا ا ل ت 84 % ا ق ط را ا و ، ي ا ا ا ا ر أ ، ا ر ا ى ا ا ت 5 ت ا و تا تا ا ل ر ر ا ا ا ل ا لاود او ، ا ى ا ا ر ا ا ا ق ة ا ط ر ا ة اذ ، ا ا ل ا ا ا ط ر ا ا ( ا ر ا)ة او ر ر ا ا ا ت نأ ، ا ه ة ع ر ا ا ا س ا ا ا ن نأ ةد ز ا ه ا او ا 5 ر ا تا ب 0 14 ا ا ا و ا ذ ا ه و و ي ا ا تا ا ، ا ت ار ا و و ا ار ا ه تء تا ا ا ر أ ر إ د و إ ا ت ار ا و ا لو د ا ، ةر او ا لو ا و ، ةدر ا ا ا ل م ار ا ه ز أ ا ا أ ا ا ا ا ا ر و ي و ، ا ا
رد إ و ، ا
ا Cherifa Bouchaour & Hussein Ali
Al-Zeaud ) 2012 ا د ا تا ه أو ا ر أ تار ا رد ا ( ا ا ا ر ا ى ا إ أ د و او ي ا ا ا ، ا ل و ة ا أو ، او إ ا Pushpa Negi ) 2015 و ( James D. Hamilton ) 2005 ارد ،( Andreas
Löschel and Ulrich Oberndorfer ) 2009 ار ا ه ،( تاد و ا تاد ا ا ر أ ر إ أ د ا :ت ا ا و ل و ا ا ه ا و ا ا ار ا ه ي ا ا ا ق ي ط را د و إ او ا ا ا ا ا ا ا ر ا أ ، ا ى ا ا ا ق ت ا ، ا ا ا ل و ا ا زا د و ، ا ى ا او ي ا ا ا ق تا ا ا ر أ ت ا تا ث ا ا ل ا ا نإ تا إ ا ل تا ى ، ا ا ن و تا او ا ا ،تا ث ا ا ا ق ت ، ا 70 % ا ا ا ل تا و ،تا ا ق ا ر ا نأ س ا ا 2014 نود ج از و أ ا ر أ ت ا 50 ا ا ا ت نأ ،تا ث بر ر ود و ا ا ا ع ر ا ن تا ة ع ر ا ا 2019 ا ا ر ا ت او ا ه تء و ، او م ي ا ا د ا ط راو ةر او ا لو ا ة او ا ا ك ا ا ا ي ا ت و ا ع ص ا د ا ق ا و ، ا د ا ا ا ة ا ا ر ي ا ا د ا ط را م ا ر أ ي ا ا ا د ا و ، ا ا ر ا ا ا ، ا ا ا ء ا ا ي ا م ا ق ا ا ا م ا ق ا ا ا ا نأ تا ة ل و م ق نأ ا ا ا ا را ا ي ار ا ه ار نأ ا تاءا ا و ا س ا ق را ا ،ة و ا د ا ا ث نأ زا و ا ا و ، ا ق ا
رو يد او ا را ا ب ت او ار آ و ا د ا ي ا ا ا ت ع را ن ، ا ، او ا را ا ا ضر ا ضا ا ىو ل او و او ا ضا او ت ا ت ا ا ا ا ت ع را نأ ،ب ا ط وأ تا او ا ت ا او ثا او ا او ا لو ا ا ءا :رد ا
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