Demographic projections for North African countries

i,

ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR AFRICA

> Sub-Regional Meeting on Economic Cooperation in North Africa Tangier, 20-27 June 1966

DEMOGRAFHIC PROJECTIONS FOR

NORTH AFRICM COUNTRIES-

Distr., .LIMITED

1 May 1966

Original: FREHCH ENGLISH

(Document prepared by the ECA Sub-Regional Office in Tangier)

T66-10 M66-1521

T66-10

CONTENTS

A - MAL7SIS

B - APPENDIX I - Tables

0 - APPENDIX II - Note on Methodology D ^ APEEHDK III- Sources

Page!

:■ ■ ■ A " -AM^SIS ■ ■ .

.1- Population problems? which are a major concern for North African countries, are an important item in the policies of governments in the sub-regiono

Measures recently taken in some countries are a good example of the interest given to population problems, as well as the means used to find solutions, saong

othersj Family Planning.

2- The ciaarasteristics of North African countries are of high life birth, a decreasing mortality* end also an annual per cent rate of increase of the popu

lation estimated being at about 3 (three)«

3- Four out of the six countries in the sub-region have already carried out

censuses, the' sud-n in 1955/56P Morocco and the UJUR,, in 1960 .and Libya in

1964* Algeria and Tunisia ore at present making preparations for census to be carried out in 1966O These censuses? which are of major importance, give an overall view of the present state population but not of their evolution or the

outlook for the future * ^

4-. Consequently it appeared both interesting and important to study the evolu tion of these populations -nd to project them into the ye^rs to come £&$ order to throw light on certain trends ^nd to obtain orders of magnitude for populations which mny heltJ; planners to draw up their programmes -

5^ These demographic projections for the six countries were m^de from two basic

assumptions to be found in the appon&ix,, one "high" and the other "low"*

6- A group of the four Maghrib countries was set up within the sub-region in order to assist the preparation of studies for that area*

7- The assumptions shown in the appendix are as followss

a) Assumption I "high" is deliberately intended to set the highest limit

to the population* Fertility is constant and mortality continues to decrease regularly up to 1985°

"Page 2

b) Assumption II "low" is deliberately intended to set the lowest limit.

Fertility begins to decrease as fr-qm 1970. omng to the notional effect of a policy of "birth-control (although usually such policies need much longer .than five years for, their effect to "be felt among, the mosses) and mortality

decreases more, slowly.than .in the.first assumptionD

8™ For the.following fifteen years "beyond 1985? trends hrcve been extended up to,.the year 2000? assuming, the.continuation, of trends obtained .from. 1,960,. to

Assumption I % Extrapolation of annual per cent rates of increr.se from 1980

;to 1985 ' ' "

Assumption II % Decrease of birth and. den'th rates below 1985 levels • 9- Annual per cent rates of incre-ee resulting from these two assumptions

are therefore >s follows s ■ ' '

Average 1-963-85 1985-2000

As;

3

3

_-feinura.

2

2

per

JCI

*7

,2

cent

i£

2 3

increase :

>9 ²

2 tes

II

-4

,2

3

3 .2

-4

Ags_

2

2

•7

•3

10- As was to be e«pectedP the two ossumptions do not show very different population'figures for the 1985 outlook. The difference between the two series

■is about TO per cent,, We conclude from this,,that even a dynamic birth-control policy storting in 1960-65 is still practically without effect in 1985c

■ ti*. Thus* the Maghrib in 1985"■■Bill have a population of 58C3 million according to assumption I (as opposed to 30S million in 1965 - for Muslim^alone)' and

52O0 million according..to assumption II, We con therefore imagine.a Maghrib

inhabitants.in 1985? to the nearest three million^ ;

T66-10

Page 3

1935-2000, The period intended to indicate a trend to order to abor<*«t may happen at the end of the century, all things being equal moreover, if present

assumptions continue to prevail in Sorth Africa.

12. Projections *ere made on the b3f5is of too assumptions, a "high • #mmK™

intended to give an upper Halt and a «1OT» assumption showing the lower ltait.

The presentation given in die study is not that of the t*. actions to themselves but rather the results of their discrepancy. The «Han^ of the too figures is due to an external influence exercised by a iife-birt* or death

policies or "both at once.

1% United Nations estimates died *teW have already been made and give

the figures for the six countries of North iifrica, viz.:

of the United Nations for Horth Africa

(in thousands)

Country ffl ffi 12 ^

Algeria 10,020 12,600 14,500 16,800 19,500

Libya 1,195 1,325 1,475 1,650 1,850

Morocco 11,626 13,600 16,000 18,900 22,400

Sudan 11,770 13,200 14,900 16,900 19,250

Tunisia 4,168 4,600 5,125 5,750 6,450

BJUR. 25,952 29,800 34,500 40,150 46,750

14. At the same time, national projections have been made by countries of the sub- region (except Libya) reaching ena of periods, which vary according to their

peculiar requirements, from 1970 to 1985. These projections are based on different;

assumptions•

i Page 1

■- ,-, * ■• ■ ... •" • > . B> TABLES ... .; ; ; . , ■ .

;'(Importrat -note'; all"-figures' -nre shown in thousands) "•

B.1 •*• Base period

Table 1...U. Muslim population of Morocco -.1960- ..!

Table- 1 a^JSuE&Im population of Morocco — ,1963* 30d .1.-965 Table 2 ,.- ..Muslim .population.,of. Algeria -,1954-

Table 2a.- Muslim population of Algeria - 1960, 1963 rod 1965 Treble 3 .- Muslim pomilrtion of Tunisia - 1956

Table 3a.- Muslim population of Tunisia - 1960, 1963 and 1965 Table 4 *» Population of Libya - 1960, 1963 and 1965

Table 5- .- Population of the U.A.E, - 1960 Table 5a^ Po-oul-tion of the IT.A.R. - 1963, 1965

Table 5 .- Population of the Sudan - 1955, 1956 and 1960 Table 6a.- Population of the Sud.nn - 1963 nnd 1965

Table 7 .- Total Population and Muslim population at base period -

1960, 1963 and 1965 for the six countriesi

Table 8 .- Assumptions

B.2 Asaumption I "High"

Table 9 i- Muslim population of the Maghrib - 1965, 1970 and 1975 Table 9a-i- Muslim population of the Maghrib - 1980 and 1985

Table 10 .- Population of the U.A.R. - 1965* 1970 and 1975 Table 10a .-Population of the U*A.R. - 1980 and 1985

Table 11 .- Population of the Sudan - 1965, 1970 and 1975 Table 11a .- Population of the Sudan - 1980 and 1985 Table 12 ' i- Total population raid Muslim population Table 12a *- Annual per cent r-ites of increase

T66-1O

Page ;2

- Asgumption II "

Table 13 i- Muslini population of the Maghrib - 1965, 1970 and 1975

Table 13a.- Muslim population of the Maghrib - 1980 and 1 Table 14 .- Population of the U.A.R. - 1965, 1970 and. 1975.

Table'14a .-Population of the U.A.R. - 1980 and 1985

Toble 15 .-Population of the Sudan - 196.5;,i:197P,and 4;

Table 15a .-Population of the Sudan -,1980 ;and 1985.

Table 16- ..-Tot^l population ?nd Muslim,population . Table 16a ..-Annual per. cent: rates of increase* . .:, .

T6M0

Tabled'Kgrocco--.19_6O- (inthousands) hmber

JL

2.085 1.658 1.381 1.122 948 807 687 575 481

![ Ij

;!

ii u t'. n if !l ii H II M 1' 397I 323i 246! 182!

125 H

i* 77»! 'i 57m ,,SI. t!

11,151 |J

■■v::::-■-.;ii:

JL 187 148 124 101 85 73 62 52 44 36 29 22 16 -11 1,000

perthousand JL 187; 149 1.24 100 85 72 61 51 43 35 29 .-■.22, 17 12 7 6 1,000

JL. 1.87 149 124 100 85 72 62 5? 43 36 :29- ,22 ...16. -11, 7 5 1,000

•percent

"I!

ii- n ■% I!

46.0 25-7 15.7 8"7 3.9 100

fed

Source: ^sultrt da recensement de 1960 - Volume I - Service Central des Statistics - Rabat - July 1964 -

T66-10

Table1a-'MuslimpopulationofMorocco1965and1*965 ■■!■.■"■■(inthousands)*:."■' o T66-10

(Table2,MuslimpopulationofAlgeria-1954 (in.thousands) 1 s I i ! 1 I 1 i i T i I ! i I [ 1 1 i I I 1 I 1 F I I F I i s i i i i i 1 } t I I 1 f I-■ 1 I 1 i p- i 1 I

Agegroup ■0" '6■ 15 -20" :25 30- 35 40' :45 50" 55 60 65. 70 ■■ 80 To^'-

■■■4 -13 14

"-■19

--24 -29 -34 -39 -44 ~49 -54 -59 -64 -69 -79 andover ta1

si Source;Denombrementdelapopulation-R^sultatsdlfinitifs,1954 T66-10

Table2a-MuslimpopulationofAlgeria-i960,"1965and1965- '(inthousands). Age .5- 10- 15- 20- 25- 30- 35- 40- 45- ■50- 55- 60- 65- 70-

group 4- 9 14 19 24 29■ 34 39 ■44 49 54 59 64 69 ■74 75andover i-"To ita1

1960 M 936 743 619 504 426 365 312 261 219 180 143 109

"79

23 5,004

JL 935 743 619 5P3 423 359 304 254 213 176 147 111 84" ■59 37 ■29

.1*871 ;1,486 i1,238 ■1,007 i849 :724

j 616 \ 515

;•"432 ;■356 •'290 ;220 ■!163 !112 1 !■■69

i •52

1963

j!1,047

693 564 477 349 292 245 201 160 122 59 35 25 4,996H0,000i5,597

P—■■■!>" ,046 831 692 562 473 401 340 285 238 197 164 125 ■■94 66 .42 ■32

1965 5,588

JL

2,093 1,662 1,385 1,126 950 810 689 577 433 398 324 247 -182 ■125 77 •57

-P SM10 !!882 i' \'735

]j 506

!!434 371 310

\\ 259

213' 129 94' •63 37 11,185;!5*938

109 882 735 596 502 426 360 302 252 209 174 132 100 71 "44 -:34;

T 2/219 1,764 1,470 1*194 1,008 860 7731 .612 511 .422 344 261 ■--1-94 ■■-134 81 61 5,928111,866

o T66-10

Tgble3-Muslimpemulation;ofJPuniaia1.956 (inthousands) groupHumborthousand 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19. 20-24 25.-29 30-34 35-.39.. 40-44 45-49 50-54 55.-59 60-6.9 70-79 80andover Total1,758

306 236 160 145 144 137 105 94 70 60 48 41 47 24 8 ,626

615 448 344 309 294 273 214 194 151 128 104 89 107 55 18 3,384

1 j' I' 1( 1I 1I If I1 '1 ■'t.

78 62 57 46 38 32 27 34 18 "6 1,000 Source;AnnuaireStatistiquede-ItTunisxe1957-T958 ServicedesStatistiques-DirectionduPlm. T66-1O

188 145 98 89 89

84'

65 58 43 37 30 .25 29 15 5 ?000

JL. 182 144 102 91 87' 81 63 57 45 38 31 26 32 16 |■,000

percent 42.8 25.9 16.5 9-5 5.3 100t?d

Is

O

8

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Table.4PopulationofLibya-1960,1963and1965 (inthousands) I-Age i !o- ;5-

| 10 —

!15- 20- 25- 30- J35- {40- |45- •50-

I55 "

!60- !65- 70- ■75and

group 4 9 14 19 24 29 34 39 44 49 54 59\ 64..j

69 I

74! over!^!

M*i■ini I130 ;103

| 86 I 70 j. 59

'51 43 .■.36 ■30 25 20 15 11 7 ■-4 693

1960 F 129 103 86 70 59 50 ,42 35 30 24 £0

' 15

12 8 ■5, 4_ 6921;:

iI !1 I1 I119631965 1I •»

i!

140 114 95 78 64 55 47 39 33 27 22 17 12 8 5 ± 760

JL 138 114 95 78 64 54- 38 32 27 22' 17 13 9 757

278 228 190 156 128 109 92 77 65 54 44 34 ■25 17 11, 9_ 1,517

M 147 122 101 84 68 57 49 42 34 28 23 18 13 9 5 __4_... 804

F 144 121 101 68 5S 34 28 23 19 14 10 ■6 5 801

291 243 202 168 136 113 97 82 68 56 46 37 27 19" 11 .L 1,605

1

566-10

Table5-PopulationoftheUJUR.-1960 (inthousands) S3" Agegroup 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 .20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65andover Total

dumber

JL

2,209 1>979 1*658 1,118 925 86? 810 851 663 569 496 324 322 420 13,207

JL 1,909 1*834 1,534 1,044 878 1,058 847 883 617 579 506 317 ■355 486 12,847

JL 4,118 3*813 3*192 2,162 1*803 1,921 1*657 1,734 1,280 1/148 1,002 641 677- 905

perthousand JL 167. 150 126 85 70 65■ .61■ 64 50 43 38 25 ■24 32 ,000

JL ■149 143 119 81 68 82 66 69 ■48 45 39 25 ;28 38 1,000

JL 158 146 122 83 69 74 64 67 49 ■44 38 25 26 35. 1,000

rr

■■parcent T 42.6 22.6 18.0 1OD7 6B1 10C

o ro Source;Populatioxt.Trendsin-the.-UM1962 CentralStatistics!Committee-Cairo T66-10

fable'5a-->Population''of,theff«A.R,..--1963.and1965 .(inthousands)"---■■-- .Agegroup19631965 NumberNumberperthougpjidpercent' 0-4 30-;34

M 5 10 15 20 25

_9 -.U -19 -24 -29

i; 1! Tl II IT 11 II tI

I! ■I M !'■ l'- M I' I' 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59!

60 - 64' j

i 65rnd-oveii i Totrli

2 1 1 1 1 13

,326 ,808 ,692 ,319 ,014 932 950 841 631 583 516 405- 310- 593 ,921

4 3

809 ,841 3*520 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 :1

I 1

■28

,742 ,036 ,813.. ,773 ,648, ,383 ,185 ,030, 801 606 ,099 ,286

i '■ i 1! 11 11 1! [I ]■■! I1, !' ]1 I1 |t ,1 )1 !f ]I f' I! (T 11

I" I' [' 1I j1

I" I1 El 1I 1I 1»

II It 1! 1i 1f !1

2, 2, 1, 1, 1 > 15

JL' 666;

070 I

942! 626.!

086 \

893! 831!

777 !

811! 624;

525 .|

445j 27.8...! 56-3■;; ,137':^{2,604 1}

,791 1,798 1,502 1,014 847 .813 845 586 543 464 281 665

5,270 3,861 3*740* 3,128 2,100 1,740 1,849 1,590 1,656 1,210 1,068 -909- 559 ■1,228

M i>. I!176 137 128 108 72 59 55 51 54 41 35- 29 18 37 14,771.29V908ITt.000"

176 121 122 102 69 57 69 55 57 40 37 31 19 45 1.000}

176 129 125 105 70 58. 62 53 55 4V 19 41" 1.000

43.0 17.0 10.7 6..0 100

*x# T66-10

no

(inthousands) ro O ro (P66-10

Table6a-PopulationoftheSudr?n1963and1965 (inthousonds) <D O :T6S-10

Table7-Totalpopulation-and-.Muslimpopulation of"baseperiod-I960,-1963and1965 (in.,thousands) ;.■!■

Country! i—■—■—™—*\ Algeria'' :;Libya•■"\ Morocco! Tunisiai TotalMaghrib\ U.A.R.-.- Sudani^I

M.P.. !10,000. j-1,385 :11*151 !3*856 I.26,392 J i••• 1

t I9601 T.P.!

11,000 |

1,385! 11,710i .4,106.!

28,201 j

-26,054! 11,818!

1963 ]

t.i ii •11,185 !1*517 j12,213 \4,202 !29,117 I***

T.P.! 11,300|

1,517 |

12,638I 4,402j 29,857 :28,286] ■:12,977|

i.i

:' 1'965 ■.-.,■

■

| M.P.

11,866 !1,605 |12,922 !4,433 !30,826 i•■■ '-I:i'-■ 1•«•

12,000 1,605 13,320 4,633 31,558 29,908.. 13,750 ...-—.,.,,„.. MiP.rMuslimpopulation-.■TJ5.:Total^.opulAtlon...__ (1)Muslimpopulationmdtotalpopulationaretakenasidentical

hdtel •£•■(=■ ro T66-10

Table8~Assumptionfor-projection Year 196O--1965

1965 - 1970^ iffO - 197^

1575-"-*:1980" 1980-198? 1985-199O: 'f995-2000.

.5 11 I' [I 11 I' It ■Mil I' .r;.tI ll ll 11 =£j_ ^{11 11 11 I}i

I1 iI ll I.I ll

"High" 52perthous-nd 52/» 52" 52» 52.«

M

.47.5ye -47.5» ,50.0» 52i5" percent-ratesofincrease applyingoflevelreached'in1985 i5."percent"(H^hrel)")""'-3'.2percent ■-3.5per-cent.(Sud,?n),

"£ow» s>a.h.b«r. 52per 52 .42 37 35perthousand, !j32perthousand ;!30perthousand Notes-:

47 47 50 50 52.

.5years •5" ■-■*■

,o y-

>0"- .5«"

j i

■.I i ■'i i .:t "1 I 1 ■?■1 1 ■

1 T 1

55 57.6 60,4yenrs iUzpecf-tionoflifeatbirth.....■..'.; »SL*PjE.*1Sex°seadjustedbirthrp.tecjiculpiedforthefollomngagegroup;

15-19 (1) 20-24 (.#"■;-■ ;025-29T (7)

30-34(6)35-39--

-^0-44/ .(1).

I V

>■

T66-10

o

Table9-ofthe ■1965,1970and1975 (inthousands) 0 5 10 15 I20 I25 J30 !35 <40

I 45

\50

| 55 | 60 ! 65

'70

| 75

!T

[ ;egroup•i -4■! -9I

- 14 -•! -19 i

—24/i

- 2.9' ■ ■!

-3.4■■■;

- 39 | ■_ 44 |

^!■'

M■ [2,837

j2,332

I1*941

U*6O3 ■

M*315

'■t,114

;,953

| 806 !- 671 ■ -49 Ik' 553

r *-54"- i

- 59 |

-64 -69 ■-74'■ rndover ota1

I--.444 ■342 I249 ;■168

i 101

!77 I15,506

1965 Number :F-;-. 2*796■ 2*306 1#917 1*581.> 1*295 1,089 922 776* -"648 538/ --442-

! 350 i 260 I 184

117 99 •15,320

5* 4* 3, 3, o ' T ■--'1 . 30

T. 633 638 858 184 610 203 875 582" 519 ,091- _886. 692 509 35a 218 .176 ,826

ji i;

ii

ji

?:

;;

ji ii

( 1 1 1 ( t 1 "I I i 1 i 1 J I I 1

3* 2* 2, 1". 1, 1 1 17

-■-■■ m■i 266 658 288- 903• 557 270< 073 914. 768 631 511 398 293 2QQ... 122 101 ,953

."1970 Tfairiber.- -2 3*190 2*624 2*260 1*877 1*535 1*250 1,049 885 ■742- 615 .....5.G4.■ ,406 !310 ...217.. 140 !,128 ;17,752

■-■)■: "

! I1'■'. I f J 1 1 i i I 1 1' I 1 1 i I .4 1 i i 1 1 I I 1

i

! j :.T .-■"■.V 1 ■T1—3 6*456-; 5*282[ 4*548! 3>780| 3*092J 2^.520i 2,122! 1*779-; ■1*510i 1*246; .1,015-I 804< 603' .417.. 262 .229 .— 35,685

JI'; .5*886I 3^085! 2*615' . 2*248; ;1*854' 1,1*508 I.1*228

|- 1,035

j876 I":"1727 |..587 |462 !345. !239 i |147 128 |20,970

1975 Number JL 5*794! 3*015| 2*578-: 2*220> 1.*830-.- 1*485.-. 1*209• 1,012 852- 709 .581 ■466 363 263 !167 I162 !20,706

.7

6

5 4 5 2 2 -2

1

1 1

TJ :

,680 ,100 *195 *468 *684■ *993 A31 ,047 *728- ,436 ,t68.. 928 708 502 314 290 -r676

as o \]Libya,totalpopulation

Page 17.

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■Prihia10-Population;oftheU.A.R.-Assumption"High" (inthousonds) 03 ro T66-10

Table10o-PopulationoftheU«A.R»-Assumption"High"- 1980and1985 (inthousands) .Agegroup19801985 Number.Numberperthousandrcent 0-4 5-9 JO-14 20-24 .25-£9.> .30-34;r 35-59 ■40-44 45-49

■50-'=*-"-54~"

55.--59.. 60-64 65andover Total

_M 4,094 3,288 2*716 2,419 1,950 1,804 1,486 982 799 728 656 .647 456 918 22,943

3,993 3,216 2,656 2,364 1,,686 1,670 .1,374 918 761 904 706 .706 ■459 1,115 22,528

T 8,087 .6,504 5,372 4,783 3,636 3,474 2,860 1,900 1,560 1,632 1,362 1,353 915 2,033

M 4,791 3,836 3,176 2,620 2,319 1,647 1,629 ;T,338 ■891 735 863 662. 643 i!1,284, 45,47^;.;'"26,434■

JL 4,916 3,924 3,247 2,680 .2,370 1,902 1,758 '1,447 -■::.9$9"" 765 686 -,-603- ,572 1,078-■ 26,897

6,423 5,300 4,689 3,549 3,387 "2,785 1,840; 1,500 1,549 ■1,265 1,215 2,362

9,707!; 7,760;;

53,331 it

JL 181 145 120 99 "88 62 62 51 28 33 25 24 48 ■■1VQ0O

183 146 121 100 88 71 65

'54

35 28 26 22 21 40

'182 145 120

;99

88 67 52

35"

28 29 24 23 44 1,000I1,000

T 44.7 15.1 6.T 100 T66-10

j.Agegroup 75-79 80andover*' Total'!6,945

Table 11 - Population-.of-the Sudan - ^Assumption "High"

1965,1970and1075-._

(in thousands)

1970 1975 Number' 8,018

JL 1,456 1,114 1,018 839 701 582 481/ 396 324 '264 210 165 124 88 56

Y.-?°.

'17 7,865

_T 2,947 2,253 2,059 1,699 1,420 1,181 977 805-- 659.. 534 -423- 327

.242'

168 104 30

1,408 I-- 1I1,120

| 1,023 j. 838 ! 696

■579

i 479-

39a. 317 25V 192 141 96 59 17

Number 15,8839,411

.F 1,730 1,376 1,095 999 817 679 563 4-64-- ...381. 310 195 148 105 22 9,238

...T 3.5C2 2,784 2,215 2,022 1,1 1,142 ■943" ■■■■775 627 500 387 289 201 127 68 39

If

o to 18,649

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