Sensitivity analyses of simulated biomass yield and carbon-fluxes from Euro-Mediterranean grasslands

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https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02787974

Submitted on 5 Jun 2020

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Sensitivity analyses of simulated biomass yield and carbon-fluxes from Euro-Mediterranean grasslands

Renata Sandor, Gianni Bellocchi, E Bottyán, Marco Acutis, Luca Doro, Dóra Hidy, R Hollós, J Minet, Eszter Lellei-Kovács, S Ma, et al.

To cite this version:

Renata Sandor, Gianni Bellocchi, E Bottyán, Marco Acutis, Luca Doro, et al.. Sensitivity analyses of simulated biomass yield and carbon-fluxes from Euro-Mediterranean grasslands. 3rd Agriculture and Climate Change Conference, Mar 2019, Budapest, Hungary. �hal-02787974�

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Sándor R.

, Bellocchi G.

, Bottyán E.

, Acutis M.

, Doro L.

, Hidy D.

, Hollós R.

, Minet J.

, Lellei-Kovács E.

, Ma S.

, Perego A.

, Ruget F.

, Sanna M.

, Seddaiu G.

, Wu L.

,

Barcza Z.

a

UREP, INRA,

Agricultural Institute CAR HAS,

Department of Meteorology, ELTE,

Excellence Center Faculty of Science, ELTE,

University of Milan,

University of Sassary,

MTA-SZIE,

University of Liège,

CER HAS,

Modelling Agricultural and Hydrological Systems in the Mediterranean Environment INRA,

Rothamsted Research,

Faculty of

Forestry and Wood Sciences, CULS

Sensitivity analyses of simulated

biomass yield and soil dynamics from

Euro-Mediterranean grasslands

MACSUR approach

First international multi-model grassland intercomparison Evaluate nine grassland models: simulation of water content and temperature in the topsoil, and of biomass production

Validation Calibration

Blind test

MACSUR approach

Analyze the sensitivity of simulated dry matter, water and temperature fluxes to altered weather conditions created by changing temperature, precipitation and atmospheric [CO ₂ ]

Calibrated simulations

Sensitivity

analyses

Objective:

Improving the mechanistic understanding of plant responses to the effects of (increasing) atmospheric [CO ₂ ] and other abiotic factors, including temperature and altered patterns of precipitation

Ensuring robust modelling approaches under changing climate conditions

Implicit assumption that well-designed and calibrated models under current conditions will remain valid under future climate realizations can be an unrealistic Multi site, multi year and multi model  complex database (data checking)

Challenge:

Study design and sites

Nine long-term grassland sites

representing a broad gradient

of geographic and climatic

conditions

Parameters Input variables

Initial

values

Effect of climate drivers on outputs

Effect of temperature scenarios

- Multi-year averages of gross primary production (GPP), evapotranspiration (ET) and soil temperature (ST) increase with the higher temperature values at humid sites

-25% -10% -5% 0 +5% +10% +25%

Effect of temperature scenarios

- Soil moisture (SWC) has a negative or non-sensitive answer to temperature increase

- Biotic model results (Yield biomass) show higher uncertainty in their response to climate manipulation

-25% -10% -5% 0 +5% +10% +25%

Effect of precipitation scenarios

- In gereral, reduced amount of precipitation decreases ET

- Soil temperature decreses with higher precipitation

- Soil moisture correlates with the elevated level of precipitation according to the expectations

-25% -10% -5% 0 +5% +10% +25%

Effect of precipitation scenarios

- Reduced amount of precipitation slightly decreases GPP and Yield biomass even in a humid site

-25% -10% -5% 0 +5% +10% +25%

Effect of [CO ₂ ] increase

- Soil temperature (ST) and evapotranspiration (ET) slightly decreased

- SWC slightly increases owing to the stoma regulation

+5% +10% +15% +25% +50% +100%

Effect of [CO ₂ ] increase

- The magnitude of [CO ₂ ] concentration positively correlates with GPP mainly in more humid years

- Yield biomass also positively correlates with [CO ₂ ] concentration

+5% +10% +15% +25% +50% +100%

Our model simulation results are comparable with experimental

meta-analyses

Experimental manipulations

- Warming stimulates plant productivity

- Larger sensitivity to rising [CO ₂ ] than to rising temperatures

- [CO ₂ ] + warming treatments, often increasing C storage and C and nutrient cycling

- Plant productivity and ecosystem C fluxes generally show higher sensitivities to increased precipitation than to decreased precipitation

- Increased precipitation stimulated both respiration and

photosynthesis, and reflected in both increased plant biomass

Conclusions

- The multi-model responses to precipitation (P), temperature (T) and [CO ₂ ] concentration revealed different levels of sensitivity

- GPP strongly responded to elevated [CO ₂ ] at all sites

- High variability in model simulations (inconsistencies

possible need for structural changes)

- Multi-model responses show parallel results with

experimental findings

Perspectives for experimental varification

FACE-experiment:

To measure the effect of elevated CO

POSTER:

Pokovai, K., Barcza, Z., Hidy, D., Hollós, R., Marton, T., Sándor, R., Pásztor, L., Fodor, N.

AgroMo - integrated modelling framework for supporting climate adaptive and sustainable agriculture in Hungary and beyond

F u r t h e r i n f o : a g r o m o . a g r a r . m t a . h u

Thank you!

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www.macsur.eu