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Uncertainty in simulating biomass yield and carbon-water fluxes from Euro-Mediterranean grasslands under climate changes

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HAL Id: hal-01519328

https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01519328

Submitted on 5 Jun 2020

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Uncertainty in simulating biomass yield and

carbon-water fluxes from Euro-Mediterranean

grasslands under climate changes

Renata Sandor, Shaoxiu Ma, Marco Acutis, Zoltán Barcza, Haythem Ben

Touhami, Luca Doro, Dóra Hidy, Martin Köchy, Julien Minet, Eszter

Lellei-Kovács, et al.

To cite this version:

Renata Sandor, Shaoxiu Ma, Marco Acutis, Zoltán Barcza, Haythem Ben Touhami, et al.. Uncertainty in simulating biomass yield and carbon-water fluxes from Euro-Mediterranean grasslands under climate changes. International Livestock Modelling and Research Colloquium, Oct 2014, Bilbao, Spain. �hal-01519328�

(2)

Uncertainty in simulating biomass

yield and carbon-water fluxes from

Euro-Mediterranean grasslands

under climate changes

Renáta Sándor, S Ma, M Acutis, Z Barcza, H Ben

Touhami, L Doro, D Hidy, M Köchy, J Minet, E

Lellei-Kovács, A Perego, S Rolinski, F Ruget, G

Seddaiu, L Wu, G Bellocchi

14-16

th

October, Bilbao – Maritime Museum

International

Livestock modelling and

Research Colloquium

(3)

Grassland model inter-comparison in MACSUR

ü

Questionnaires to modelling teams

ü

Guidelines

and

minimum

dataset

requirement for model evaluation

ü

Common protocol for model

inter-comparison

ü

Model inter-comparison at selected

sites in Europe (plot-scale simulations)

Coordinator

data segregation

output evaluation

uncertainty

analysis

à

To quantify uncertainties on yield an d carbon-flux outputs

à

To explore the sensitivity of grassland models to climate change

factors

(4)

Outputs

(HAB, GPP, NEE …)

Initial values

Parameters

Modelling

Modelling

Systemic approach

Systemic approach

PaSim

SPACSYS

AnnuGrow

STICS

EPIC

ARMOSA

Biome-BGC MuSo

LPJmL

CARAIB

Grassland-specific

Crop models

(adapted to grasslands)

Biome models

Nature Education, 2012

+ Management

(5)

Matta

Sassari

Laqueuille

Rothamsted

Lelystad

Oensingen

Monte Bondone

Kempten

Grillenburg

Management:

Kemp-1: intensive (4 cuts/year)

Kemp-2: extensive (2 cuts/year)

Roth-1: NH4 – fertilization

Roth-2: NO3 – fertilization

Lq-1: intensive (N fertilized)

Lq-2: extensive (non fertilized)

Flux-tower observational sites

(GPP, NEE, RECO, ET, ST, SWC, HAB)

Data: hourly resolution

Grassland experimental sites

(HAB)

Data: cutting events

Investigated sites

Investigated sites

(6)

UNCALIBRATED vs CALIBRATED runs

(HAB, g DM m

-2

)

UNCALIBRATED vs CALIBRATED runs

(HAB, g DM m

-2

)

Uncertainty of the simulated yield from all

models at Sassari site

envelope of simulated HAB

---

observed data

- - - - -

median of all models

Uncalibrated

(7)

UNCALIBRATED, CALIBRATED, VALIDATED

Actual Evapotranspiration with monthly resolution at Grillenburg (Germany)

UNCALIBRATED, CALIBRATED, VALIDATED

Actual Evapotranspiration with monthly resolution at Grillenburg (Germany)

(8)

SENSITIVITY TEST

(Yearly Gross Primary Production vs CO

2

)

SENSITIVITY TEST

(Yearly Gross Primary Production vs CO

2

)

Baseline: 380 ppm

+15% CO

2

(437ppm) à +8%

+10% CO

2

(418 ppm) à +6%

+5% CO

2

(399 ppm) à +4%

+25% CO

2

(475 ppm) à +11%

+50% CO

2

(570 ppm)à +17%

+100% CO

2

(760 ppm) à +25%

y = 1732,9e

0,0354x

R² = 0,921

(9)

SENSITIVITY TEST

(Yearly Gross Primary Production vs Temperature and Precipitation)

SENSITIVITY TEST

(Yearly Gross Primary Production vs Temperature and Precipitation)

-5% Pà +1.5%

-10% P à +0.5%

-25% P à -1.4%

+5% Pà +2.5%

+10% Pà +3%

+25% P à +3.3%

Precipitation

-5% Tà +0.2%

-10% T à -3%

-25% T à -7%

+5% Tà +3%

+10% Tà +4.5%

+25% T à +6%

Temperature

(10)

SENSITIVITY TEST

(Yearly Gross Primary Production vs Temperature and Precipitation)

SENSITIVITY TEST

(Yearly Gross Primary Production vs Temperature and Precipitation)

Precipitation

Temperature

(11)

u

Overall, model calibration improves accuracy and

reduces uncertainty in biomass and carbon-water cycle

estimations

u

Alternative models show different sensitivity to

climate change factors

u

Estimated Gross Primary Productivity is roughly

exponentially increasing with the atmospheric CO

2

level (by up to ~25% when doubling [CO

2

])

u

The effect of temperature on the GPP changes is

higher than the effect of precipitation

Conclusions

Conclusions

(12)

Action plan and perspectives

Action plan and perspectives

MACSUR

u

To analyze the envelope of model outputs of sensitivity tests on

the yield biomass production

u

To estimate the interactions between different scenarios and

model simulations related with the sensitivity of the applied model

Perspectives

u

To expand the collaboration with new sites, models on different

treatments and/or grazing animals

Thank you for your attention!

Thank you for your attention!

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