A categorization of the Latin American nations according to their potential for development of a computer industry

LIBRARY OF THE

MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

W'.^S. INST. _TECa

OCr 18 1973 DEWEY LIBffARY

A ZarSjDEtlZArEDN OF THE LATIN AMERICAN

NAflONj AC33aDISG T3 THEIR POTENTIAL F08

DEVJLDPSESr 3F A COMPUrER INDUSl'HY

JaiBoa C. ^arquin

Mlssi^lusatts Institute of Technology

RECEIVED OCT 30 1973

PAGE 2

Iitcadictijn ^

Des-ciptLon Jt lethai 5

NitLJQdl MijiiitJie Sats IB

D^urcres iQl aeLiibiiity af Data 19

AQiiysis ot :i)? ' 3B

wtiicictariziti^n lai Sannary 41

Rafacea-as 55

Bibiiajcaphy 56

PAGE 3

LIST OF TAULES:

Table 1: UeiGliing Factors and their Identifying Codes IC

Table 2: Clliart of Factors and Assigned VJeights 17

Table 3: Table i^elatins Factors to Most Common Source 23

Table k: Determination of Economic Parameters 2k

Table 5: Determination of Educational Parameters 25

Table L: Determination of Tochnoloi; ical Parameters 25

Table 7: Raw Data for Economic Sector 27

Table S: i^av; Data for Educational Sector 2o

Table 9: I'.av; Data for Technol 03 ical Sectoi 29

Table 10: Computations to Convert Ravj Data to Points 30

Talkie 11: Point Distribution in Economic Sector 51

Table 12: Point Distribution in Educational Sector 32

Talkie 13: Point Distribution in Technological Sector 33

Talile lU: Ranking by Sector 34

Table 15: Table of CIDP Indicator Groups 35

Table IG: IJatiorial Magnitude Sets 36

Table 17: Affine CIDP v/itiiin IJational Magnitude Sets 37

Table 13: Mapping of CIDP Groups to Expanded UN Levels h5

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labroduqtion:

Jna ot the jreatest prablaiBs in dealing with developing rountriss has Djea that jf iaiiscciiiaata yenecalization; attemptinj to measure

Ji£t2cent laais and peoples with tha same yardstick. Tha many

L1 i^aL acra-ies whi-i rt»ara ct2cize the nationals oL different countries

aalce thasa attempts ijthiug mora tnan frustrating and futile efforts iiLta rasults gaaecallf letrimaatal to the desired goals. On the other

ual,

it L3 al33 iarailisti:; to attributa uniqueness to every facat of

itta rfithin a iavelopiag ::ouatry. Each pair of nations has certain

simiiaritias ani litEarsoc^s. Some countries, with strong ethnical,

J aogca phi-ai, or :;uI:.iraL tias hava great areas which are common to

taeic aational davaljr^oefl t. Still, others have problems of parallel

aatiCi dua ta aconaalc iiuk.5, 3r chronological similarities in their aistorical davalopmaa t. It bacomes quite important, at a cartain

t>Diat, to study taosa aspa:;ts which tend to place countries in j?e::i£ic affiaity grsips dapaniing on a common factor of analysis.

Tiis is aspacially so todiy, since interdependence is a patent

aacisiity, and natiais must learn from each other's actions. Tha

s)latioa to a spacifLa pcoblam in one country could very well be of

great valus in aidinj aaothar country in deciding upon a strategy

owacis

attaclciiij i similar situation. In developing nations,

aaadLrappai by taa

may

difti^uities in tne process, and ever so

zaaLjis af maiiag the best use of their scarce resDurces, this

siariig oecoaas ^uita important. Determining, therefore, general

jCDaJJ of Qitians rfita sxmilar characteristics relevant to the area in

PAGE 5

D3s::ciption of Method

3ar prisic/ intanti^a is tj ieal with the possibilities of automated

iiti icozssiiaj ia Latia iniacica. We wish to avoid the usual errors of

j 2naciii2itioa, 33 a Jitegoc icit ion of the twenty-one nations included

i(i tne recjion will ai made. The countries to be treated are the

£3ll3wiag: iVRG \rg3ntiaa aOL Bolivia 384 Brazil :ai Chile ZOL Zoiofflbia 30S Costa Rica CUB Cuba

l)OM DDmiuicaa H^piblic

ECU Ecuador iiLiJ El ialvadac JOA Sudtemala -iAI Haiti HON Honduras SEX Maxic3 !)IC Nicaragaa PAN Panama ?AR Paraguay PEE Pari

Pac Puerto aijo

JHUJcuguay

7EN Vanazuela

A :;lassification iith respe:;t to the potential tor devalopiny a

cjaaater lalustry uaais an analysis of the factors relevant to that

^Jtsitial. rha initial astablishment of data processing installations,

aid tiaic i35t affectL/a and afficient use, is in direct relation to a

aumoac of factors. Aiaang thase:

1. iow wall i3S3 tha system fit the job?

2. 4ow wall ia tha pajpla know the system? 3. What is tha ioaaiJDwar availability to

sarvLca ail facets of the system?

PAGE b

th2 -ULCiat 3tite of tachnology in thp

rountry ?

&3k.Lij h3rf rfelL a systan fits a joD is attempting to find a measarti

tjc the relation bataaea ttie optiaai processinj capacity ot the

3/st3B, as irfeli as its aptitnal mode of operation, and that at «hi::h it

Ls aJtualLy t)3iuj utlLizsl. This basically means that in order to a:;cjBplisti a prescriaai group of taslcs, in given volumes and within ^BrtiLa tUcJ -oastraiats, there is probably a small subset of systems

rf.iiri fit best. This Ls by no means the only factor for salection, but

Lt L3 oaa jf thjsa iavolvai, and a most important one at that. In

adaition, the e:;oa3Bi:;al aspects must be analyzed and a

t)ci::2-pertormaa:;e rati? deterained to evaluate what is being obtained

HDC the money being pail.

fae it1jwlaigeability of all computer professionals, whether they be

operators, pro jraiuaacs, managers or general users, is crucial.

Effe-tive usage means that prasat goals are accomplished in relatively

saoct periods of tiBi. Foe tiis, experience is decisive. Efficient

usays means that joaLs are ac-omplishei at minimal plausible costs.

?3r affective usage, jrantad tha need for personnel with the necessary axpaccisa, said siciils level may be imported. For efficient usage, in

Lie L>ag ran, aati/a parsoanal must be trained until male to achieve

the axpertisa reguirad. \ compromise for marrying the two is one of

tie lost -riti::al aspairts ot introdu-iny computer technology in lavaljping countries.

PAGE 7

lanparfer sources

tut

gaacantee continuous operations of our

ListiL latians at caisjnably high rates of efficiency are also

fiinianentai. \gain, tiare must be access to the people that can insure

this, whather they 02 ia programmiig, operations, or hardware

33r/ijing. rnasa soucras shoaii either exist prior to the time of

lastiLlatioQ, or tha/ aust 32 created shortly after, while initial

laaioiier ls iaported.

The -urrent state oE terhaalagy in a nation is very difficult to

iiterniue. Phis is prLaacily so in nations rfhere due to isolated

Liitiitivas, a relati/aly alvan^ed sacrtor might exist, yet t ae country

as a whole be coasidsrably backward. This is characteristic,

sDietiies, ot foraign plaats in developing countries, which create a

pDckst of alvan-jl tachnology in their specialization, and also

iapliat tha nacassary javiroaiaat to support that level of technology

iti taose areas vitally conna:;ted with their commercial lita. The

iegraae of banafit for tha aost nation, in this sense, is greatly

iat>aalaat on a nuibar o£ factors. The spectrum ranges from the extreme

:;dsa of, say, tha ijantanamo Naval Base, in Cuba, with no benefit

iisoiitely to tha Zibans in the sense of increasing the state of

technology; to that ol tha many small American subsidiaries in Puerto

dico, with total nativa aaapoiiar from the general manager down, and coaplite a3:;e3s to tha paraat firm's bank ot technology. ?1ore a propos

is to take tha axaaple of a typical oil refinery, with all its

aacassity for agiiipaant, powar plants, communication lines, harbor

ciciL Ltias, ate. In addition, it must also establish the minimum

PAGE 3

janauiily meins thiujs like radio, talevision, telephone, medical

ticilities, atz. iDDritioas ttiesR installations will pass on the

banstits of thair littsraat te^linologies in those fields to the

saccoaadiag sitas. This is lona for a number of reasons, and with it tie 32ed 13 Qoriaall/ planted for the necessary operational environment

111 which tutare tachai::ians might develop. This certainly holds true

t:)r ttiosa sntarprises whi^a raalisa that it is usually less expensive

to train nativa t3:;iaicLaas than to import them whenever needed.

3ftan, to areata goolwill amonj the local populace, a communications

aat klII ba axtendai, or portuary facilities will be financed, or

coals built for ::omioa use. All of these instances are examples of

iaiiji wtii::h in gaaacal expand the current state of existing

tachruiogy in a spacifLC sector. 3f course, there is no mention here,

aid aich nation must avaluata aach case individually, of the overall

zost of taa foreijn jparatioa for the country. Whether what is being

tiltea is greater thiu, or ajual to what is being given and act

i::c:3r i ingly. In othac rfocis, a cost-benefit analysis on tne matter

saoiii be iona.

\11 of thasa points iiiving baan briefly reviewed, one more, of vital

tapoctancB aeads to aa statel and analyzed. That is, since computers

ire joiaj to be iiBt)octs virtually all the time in a developing

-ouitcy, tha aconomi:;3 of said land constitute a determining factor

for tae general devalopmant of the industry at a national iaval. The

aacaiies that might t>a importal are also limited in capacity, speeds,

lad other chiractar istias by price. This limitation can take oiany

PAGE 9

<iiLla dll iticisions roQceroiaj selactioa of computer equipment miyht

3* laae oi an iniiviiual basis, there will be an agyre^ate effect at ti3 nitisaal Le/eL. Fas bast solution to a problem must always imply tbat it be faasioia aconooicilly, otherwise it cannot be defined as

D^iiiy a sDlutioa at all.

^ftar this ovar/iew af tha pDints in question, it becomes necessary to

l3scci.be the matuoi whicti shall be utilized in detail. This will be

iona 3y pcasenting all the fa-tors going into the analysis, and their

raspe-tiva weights cor oir specific purpose. Based on the five

iitfacent questioas asked pravi^usly as having a direct bearing on ttie

iitraluction of a ::3aputer installation, a grouping of relevant

a3S3Ci.atel factars will ba divided into three general classes: 1. Ecanjmic

2. Sducatioiil

3. rechaJlojical

liithiii economic fictors, ill ttioss whicli directly affect the country's capacity tj afforl coapatars at different levels, or that characterize

the jcowta trends ia tna jaaaral economy, or that define modes of

BzoaoaicdL jperations ire to ba included. Under educational, literacy

cata, se-aadary school and hijaer level enrollment, as well as general

status 3£ technical edjcatiDn will be covered. By technological

factors ace aeant thjsa that yield a certain measure of the current

stata of technology ia a country. That is, the indicators for the

nacassary technoiogici 1 envirDnment to support computer installations

at differaat stages.

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toe i^ntisaed sectors. Ths vaiues will be determined by the relevance

j£ tait factor with caspact to the point in cjuestion: potential for

tae javel-jpaeut of i :;3iput3r iadustry. Dnce a total quantification of

ill irticlas is a ::c3iplish3l, jroupings by each class will be done.

iad upon raachinj a ELaal ranking, a creation of subgroups shall be

i3t3Ciin9d. rhasa last rfill oe in coabination with still another

oreiiciown by absolute economic magnitude (GNP) in orler to fully Litagrate the concept of a nition's potential for computerization and

tiie overall economic size of said country.

Phe ganeral <aignt distribution for the three main classes is the

toil Jiiag:

Ecoaomic S^fi

Educational 20X

ractinologicil 20X

Tiesa percantagas reflect ia a circular way# both the importance ot

the sat of factors la-lulai ia the class, and the manner in which

thesa define the janeral classification. Since this attempted

ci taj5rization is oisei, to a certain extent, on subjective avaluitions and manipiiations of objective inforaation, a checking

aacanism

is astablisiei by utilizing a top-down method ot assigniatj

•Jaigtits. Therefore, of determining the overall importance ot the

janacai class initially, a bound is automatically imposed on tne

component factors.

li^oaooically, the maisures to be included are four. These four

iddicators should giva aiajuata neasuras for the financial aspects laaliig with the introiuction ot a new and expensive technology in

PAGE 11

jenacii, lai i.n picti^uLac to ttiat of conputers. Due to their relative

Lut'Jrcdnca la preietecliniuy this position, tlio weiijhing nchorao choson

£3rtaeiBLSthafjlio«iag:

30* 1. 3r33s Nitional Product (GNP)

15* 2. Par capiti 3NP

5A 3. arjrftti rates of GNP and per capita

3MP combiael

^Q% 4. Parceat of 3DP in "high technology" areas

In raility there ira some otasr parameters with which there is concern

is tj their appiir laiLity io tiis area. For example general attitudes

tjwici machinery ani aatomation. Nonetheless, most ot this type

iifjcaatiaii is extrem*!^ difficult to obtain, almost impossiole in the

short run. Thus, it das bean iecided to raake do with approximations

taroajh ttie bast asa jf pirioatars such as those listed, and which are CDaaected and undariyiaj thosa iesired but uaobtainaole.

lacLaled ia the broad class ot education are the following factors:

literacy rata, raiativa numbar of students enrolled in secondary

schDDl or above, ani lastly ttia level of technical education in the

linl. MthDujti tha caoica of ttiase factors obeys a direct relation to aaw they avtsntaall/ affect tha developoant of the computer industry,

taeca ara saaa adlitional points that have been left out, due to the

lict jf lata on racoci. For instance, it is relevant to analyze the

trenia toward technical education and how that might impact tha

ganaral area iinler staiy. Et would ba specifically pertinent, also, to

PAGE 12

elucition. rh3 fd=t is, hotf2?ar, thdt the existence of these types of 32ti33Ls ace stili at in aparitional level that either makes it very

aica to iJeutify tj^a, or makes thair contribution almost not

wDrtarfhila taking into consi1aration. The distribution of weights

iiioij the salectei factors is i:;corciing to the followiny scheme:

10* 1. Litarary rate

5X 2. Relative number of students enrolled

in s3~ondary school or above.

54 3. Level of technical education

la thi mora diffi:;ult irea Df attempting to measure the current state of ta-hnolojy in a :;oantry, tae factors involved must fulfill the

folljrfing tKO ra^air anants: a;::;assibility, and that they shed light on

the general technologi::3l snvLronment of the country. This is not

always aasy, since taare ara many countries in Latin America where

ticesant VDlumas of conputer operations are trivial and governments

aava no awaranass o£ tha problems at hand. There are some cases,

aawavar, as indicated by tha OAS report on the subject matter, (Bibl.

21) irfaere operations aive raa:;a3d a level ot certain significance. The

factor is, tharafora, to b> -oasidered, but since in the most notable

of all cases evea, tha stage is incipient compared to future

lavaljpmant, a lorf iieight assignement is in order. Other more specific Lifj-nation wDuld be )f relevance here, in trying to measure the state of teciinology. Most of it is, unfortanately, inaccessible. It becomes taea Logi:;al to utilize the aare general parameters at hand in order

tj at least gat a nandle on the problem. These are to be the

PAGE 13

ttijasiiid, aamber 3t television sets, and levHl of computer usage in

til" cjautiy. riiest^ ica to bu rfoicjhod thusly:

8X, 1. Electricity produced

7iS 2. Sufflbec of telephones per thousand

2% 3. Number of television sets installed

3A 4. Level of computer usage

Tieca xs a definite reason £dc intermixing absolute (i.e., GNP) and

^er cipita factDirs in the analysis. Since one of the the most relevant

tiC2t3 in ietermiaing computer technology to be utilized is the level

of operation of in eiterprise, and this is soraething which is absent froa 3ur collecteci iiti, a surrogate must be used. A combination of

ibsDlite aal Jer ::ipiti ticrtors which define certain aspects within a

:;Duatcy is to act as that substitute, insuring that direct absolute

aeasures ot a country's mignitude and operational level are passed on.

iasicaily, this completes tha list of factors to quantify towards the

jategjcization. Por arictical purposes a code will be set up to

LleitLfy each of these factors for later ease of handling. This code

*l11 iivile tt»e three

nin

classes, or sectors, with their particular components, assigning a two character identifier to each.

A valid point which list be made concerns the degree of correlation

aiottj aany at the variaales. There is little doubt, for example, that

LLt^cicy rate and GNP are usually correlated. However, for the purpose

PAGE 14

zios<i^ seal dJejuate.

JQC3 the wai-jhts aa/5 basa proportionally assigned, another issue con-scaiag tha allocation of points comes up. Mainly, how ara they to

o3 iLl^ttai t3 the individual countries for each one of the

car:ajpoaiinij articles. There are various methods of doing this, but tie 3\e chjsea for application is very simple and direct. For each of

the alevan factors to ba eviluated within the three sectors, the

::3U0try that comas first accarding to absolute ranking becomes the

basa for that particuLir ::o1uib[i. The number of points assigned to that

country will ba maxLBUia, anl all other countries will receive in

proportion to their pjr-aataga of the base. For example, say that for &2 (?ar capita GNP) Argentina has the highest entry with $770. Since

\2 las a total weight of 15)1 assigned, then the point distrioution for

&2 to ail countries would follow from the formula. For country X, it

rioulj be:

Points for country X:

(per capita 3)J P for X/per capita GNP of base) x 0.15

(par capita 3NP for X) x (0.15/770)

?3r Ciiia, aith a per capita aNP of $433, its point allocation

PAGE 15

(4J3) X (3.15/7701 = 8.12

raece are dniiiber ot ::a3es whaca the data at hand must be qualified in

jrdac to present it in ths proper perspective. The problems

^ncoaaterad iii the ditj CDllaction and filtering are the topic of

iiottiar se-tion. io*<3/5r, siaca tnere are a few instances that might

iffa-t caicilatloas, lat it be mentioned that in junctures where a

5?e3Lfic paint, oc (Sic, was missing from the normal information

5Durcas a projection #13 made based on the trends and growth rates. At Limas, tri2 last availaDla fijure was taken, at others, averages over

pariaJs ware prafarcai. In ail cases the criterion was to choose the ijst significant statisti:;.

PAGE lb

TABLE 1

rabla it H3ijtiin^ Factors and their

liaatifying Coles

Sector 1: ECONOMIC

\^ Sross ^itioDii Product (GNP)

42 Per -ipitd 3NP

A3 SrDwth Rates of GNt' and Per Capita

GNP Cambined

\U Percaat ot GDP in "High Technology" Areas

Sector B; EDUCATIONAL

31 Literacy Rate

32 Relative Numbar of Students Enrolled in

Seconiiry Scaaol or Above

B3 Level 3f leclinical Education

Sector Z: TECHNOLOGICAL

-1 Electricity Produced

::2 Nuabec af Telephones per Thousand Inhabitants

:3 Nuaber at Installed Television Sets

PAGE 17

IAB|iE_2

Clidct ot FiztJV:i dtid Assiynt'd Wtfiijhts

Sector A: Economic (60%) Al 30 A2 15 A3 5 A4 10 Siztot B: Educationil (20%) B1 10 B2 5 B3 5 Sector Z: Technological (20%) 31 8 C2 7 C3 2 CU 3

PAtiE

M

^iti2nal_Maciaitude_Sets

t>araUei t. the _{ie.alap.ent of an .ndex}

for classifying _{according to}

the _{factors affectinj an}

ia=ipxent _{co.pater industry,}

it becomes aacassary to .raate i _{separata grouping}

or the Latin _{American nations}

^r th.ir e.ono.ic _{a.i,Utalas. That is,}

a differentiation on size using .a ec^no.ic scale. Taa priaacy reason for this relates to the basic

tanat that _{unaguaL le.els of}

operation, _{different volumes}

of

traasicti.as, aad _{distinct magnitudes}

of corporate _{entities usually}

cajuice unique _{appro^.has to}

computerization. _{These levels,}

or

operational scales, .ca mora likely than not to _{duplicate themselves} La _{coantcies ^f similar}

ecoaoBi. magnitude. While it is true that two =^aatcles might be of _{.omparabla economic size}

and totally dissimilar ia pr.ulatioa or surface area, it stands that those elements .nich

f^r=a tna relative _{aguality or disequality}

are _{precisely the ones}

aadar _{scrutiny for ouc main}

categorization.

Since the most -ideiy used index of economic size is the GNP, and it

.s lasirai to obtaia a geaaral _{grouping corresponding,}

approximately,

to large, medium and small _{countries from an economic}

viewpoint; then a _{distribution snali}

oa made using the logarithm of the GNP. _{«hat tnis}

signifies is that a _{ocaakdown will be}

obtained of countries with GNP's

-

tn. _hundred

_milHoa,

billion, or ten billion scales. _{These shall be}

callel _{National lagnitude}

Sats I,

n,

and III, _{respectively. (See}

PAGE 19

33ja:ES AND SELIABILIFY OF DATA

fae 3auc:;e5 ot data foe this work are varied, but the bulk of iaf ociBdtion is derivai froB fiva main sources. These are:

(Nambecs in parentheses are the Bibliography reference.)

a) America en Citras 1970, Situacion Economica 2, 3: (Bibl. 19,20)

b) Statistical Ijupaadium of the Americas 1969: (Bibl. 23)

c) iijhar Elacation ia the Amarican Republics: (Bibl. 4)

d) The rforll laales: (Bibl. 2b)

e) ieport of Mission for Evaluation of Inforaation Systans, DAS: (Bibl. 21)

For operational speei, a coiification of these sources follows:

a) AEC

b) SC

C) HEA a) WT

e) BHE

PAGE 20

Ljc jua or iBDre ot th3 Cictors uadar analysis for this stady. By

ttici/ d-::urate, hDWiVic, it is not meint that the up-to-the-miuute

litaD is availabla ioi erroc free all of the time. Fairly accurate

lati LBplias, for tha purposas of the present worit, that which being

ivaiLibla nas also acceptable when compared to the majority of all ?j33i.3ie soarces. Tha reliability of this information, nonetheless, is ia tha domain of organizations as prestigious as the Organization of

iaerican States (DAS) and the International Bank for Regional

Davaijpaaat (I38D). Tiasa iastitutions are by no means infallible,

aowavar, and sinca many timas they cannot contiria at all any

Lafjraation which thay racaiva from the various countries, the raw

lata passed alonj may still carry some original error. Short of

BissL^e aad exhaustiva sur/eys in the field which are economically

anfaasible we must rely on this information and function with

whatever coiifidance it may provide.

fae breakdown of souccas of different factors is of relevance to any

one desiring to pursue tha reliability of figures used in the

different parts of tha work. For the economic data (A) an almost total dapaaianca was placed on tha World Taoles, factors A1 througn A4 being

takan from tnara. Vaz capita GNP and growth are rather

straightforwardly picked from said tables: World Table IV (Resources, Product attd Income) and World Table I (Growth Rates) , respectively,

rae parcaataga of GD? in high technology areas, however, has to be

C3a?atad by adding tie specified columns under the headings "GDP by

Jranca: Electricity, gas and water 6 Transport and Communications" in

PAGE 21

ne

jliicatianal dati (B) stains from three of the five main sources.

i?iJtD: Bl, iitecdc/ rite, is obtained from World Table II (Population,

Liojc ?oczi aad Edacacion). Factor B2, students enrolled in secondary

3iu::ition ar abova, ;oiaes from SC. The level of technical education,

J3, roitias from a s;iai-objective analysis of HEA, RME aad other

sources.

Listlf, the techuolo jical data (C) is derived from two of the

yriQ-ipal sourcas. Factor Z^, electricity produced, is obtained from

iSC, ilonj with 32, aumber of telephones per thousand. The number of

talsvision sats, 33, -omas froa SC, and C4, level o± computer

tachaoiogy, from RUE.

fae paraiaters involvad also need a clarification on method of

:;oiaputatioa, or sele:;tiDn. Thasa will be presented in a separate form.

The listinj of sources was primarily an indication to the main source

of lita for each ona of the factors under consideration. They are not,

aowavar, the only sourcas. la affect, when a datum is missiny in the

iidicitei iocuoant it will oa obtaiaed from some other document which will be mentioaad in the Biloliography. If the information cannot be

ratriaved by said oethod, then an estimate is made, based on past

figucas, trends, growth rates, and other factors.

Two other constant sourcas of problems are the data concerning Puerto Jico and 3uba. In tha first case, because Puerto Bico is not a member

PAGE 22

JL tae 3kS, th3 a3:;ua2Qts published by said organism carry no

LitocuatiDn on it. In tha jisi of Cuba, since it has not been within

tie DkS 3inc3 19S4, and because of the Cuban governmeiit's policy of

lit tJittinj 3iit vecf auch ilita on any aspect of its economy, the 111 jcnatiaii which is a\raiiabie is not very complete or up to date. In

ooth 3t th333 cases tha iD3th:>is aentioned above concerning missing

idta have bden atilizsi, although in the Puerto Rican instance, lauch

jf the intoriaition was jbtaia^l from non-OAS sources and incorporated.

Li iliitiDn to the sjircas already mentioned, there are a number of

farther d3:;am2nts that proved invaluable in the preparation of the

study. The "5tatistijil Bulletin of the Pan American Union (Boletin

fistaiistico da la Jniaa Panamaricaaa) " was used quite extensively to

::jmt^l3raent loucrh of th» lata n^aded. "Socio-Economic Progress in Latin Ameri-a," an annual report prepared by the IBRD, served to evaluate sjma 3t the m^re subjective aspects in the data analysis.

1(1 iua tdirness, nat all sources relate directly to hard data, since

part jf tha investigation consisted in attacking some problems which ace cjiamon ta otner jeneral areas of development. "The Economics of

Davaij pmeat, " _{by Everatt E. Hagen, and personal} discussions with him

TABLB 3

libie Relating Factors to Most

CDiniion Source PAGE 23 FACIDR SOURCE &1 A2 A3 A« WTU WTU WT1 WTU B1 B2 B3 WT2 sc HEA CI C2 C3 Z'4 AEC AEC SC RME

PAGE 24

TA3LE U

Descriptioa af Method tor Determination of Parameters

ECONOMIC

Al Gross National Product

Latest ivaiiable fijure, tiicea from column 16 ot VTk, given

in Billions of dollirs. (1469)

A2 Per Capita GMP

Lit23t dvaildbla rijjre, taken from column 17 of WT4, ijiven

in dollars. (1969)

A3 Grotu Sites of 3NP and Per Capita GNP Combined Sua of the averijes ot ::oluiaas 2 and 3 of HT1 respectively,

gi.v3n in absolute nimbers. (1951-69)

A^ Pec::Jat ot GOP in "High Technology" Areas

San of the latest atfiilabla figures from columns 10 and 11

PAGE 2b

TABLE 5

D3s:;ripti.on ot Matti^i far Dita rmination ot Pdrameters

EDUCATIONAL

B1 Literacy Bate

Litist dvailable fijare from column 15 of 1*12, given as percent of

totil population. (196^)

B2 Hslitive Naaber of Students Enrolled la Se^oiary School or Above

San 3f litest dvailaole figures from Tables 58 and 59 of 3C,

raspectivaly, divided by tha total population. (1967)

B3 Level of Technical Education

Assijnal ranitinj an a one-hundred point scale based ou the

PAGE 26

TABLE_i

i>_;>U>"r » i't t »»U 'f H3 { l\ >I f i>i I'll!otm »n•'«< i ''ii •>( l".-«i ,-<mc:t p i q

TECHNOLOGICAL

CI Elactricity Produced

Litdst avdiiabla figure in Table 325-01 of A£C2,

of ^kilowatt-hours. (1968)

given in millions

C2 Numoer oc Telephones per Thousand

Lat3st available figare in Table 334-11 of AEC3, given in number of

talaphones per thousand. (1969)

C3

Nmber

of Television Sets Installed

Latest available fLgura in Table 60 of SC, given in thousands of

talcjvisiou sets. (1966)

34 Leiral of Computer Technology

Assigned ranking on a ona-hundred point scale based on the

PAGE 21

PAGE 28

TABLE 3

Rn

Data tar Educational Sector

:ouNraY bi b2 b3 AR'^ BOL BRA CHI dOL COS D01 ECJ ELS GJA UAI HON MEX NIC PAN PAR PES P8C URU VEN 31 Literacy Hate

32 Relitiva Numbac of Students Enrolled in

Secoodir/ School or Above

33 Level of lacanical Educatiou

PAGE 29

TABLE 9

Rarf Ddta for Technological Sector

:DUfir«if 31 C2 C3 C4 Aii 17,y02 67.2 1,850 100 B3L 673 6.8 60 BSA 38,181 17.2 2,500 98 CHI 6,793 33.0 55 74 CDL 6,522 23.5 400 87 CDS 689 30.0 65 72 CUB 3,709 29.7 555 75 DOM 699 8.7 65 65 E:U 750 15.2 55 65 ELS 582 11.1 38 68 GtJ4 526 7.3 60 69 HAI 78 0.9 10 40 HO(J 205 4.5 10 60 HEX 22,731 24.4 1,850 95 Ni: 484 12.5 19 70 PAM 520 40.0 77 72 P^a 179 6.3 60 PE« 4,880 12.7 275 83 pa: 4,895 92.3 700* 90 uaj 1,960 72.4 225 79 VES 10,369 35.1 700 85

Estimate based on ialirect iaf ormatioa.

-1 Ele::tricity Pcolu^el

Z2 Naabec of ralephones per Thousand Inhabitants

33 Number of lastallei Television Sets

TABLE 10

PAGE 30

Coipatdtioas to 3oavert from Baw Data to Points

PAGE 31 Poiat Distribution :3UNrB]( A1 A2 AR3 B3L BB& Ctil CDL CDS CJ3 DOM E:ii EL5 UAI MEK Ni: PMJ PAB PER pb:: VEN A1 GcDss !iational Product (GNP) k2 Pec -ipita GNP

A3 3r3tfth Bates of 3NP and Per Capita

GNP [Toabined

\4 Pecceat 3f GDP ia "High Technology" Areas 23. H3

PAGE 32

TABLE 13

Poiat DLstcibuti^n in Technological Sector

PAGE 33 :DUNrRY -1 =2 C3 C4 TOTAL \S3 BOL BRA :hi :oL :os :uB 301 ECJ BLS 3UA ikl aoN SEX Si: PAN ?Ei PHZ 3BU /EN 3.76 0. 11 8.03 1.42 1.37 0. 14 0.73 0.15 0.16 0.12 3. 11 0.02 0.05 4.75 0.10 0. 11 l.uJ 1.03 0.41 2. 17 5.09 0.51 1. 29 2.50 2. 16 2.23 2.25 0. 55 1. 15 0.84 0.55 0.07 0.34 1.35 0.95 3.02 0. Ji 7.00 5.49 2.66 1. 48 0.00 2.00 0.04 0.32 0.05 0.44 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.05 0.01 0.01 1.48 0.02 0.06 J. 20 0.56 0. 18 0.56 3, 1. 2. 2. 2, OC 80 94 22 62 2. 16 2.25 1.95 1.95 2.04 2.07 1.20 1.80 2.85 2. 10 2. 16 2.49 2.70 2. 37 2.55 1 1.34 2.45 14.23 6. 18 6.47 4.63 5.72 2.81 3.30 3.03 2.78 1.30 2.20 10.94 3. 17 5.3b 4.00 11.2'^ 8.45 7.94 Elecrtricity ProduciJ

Naotber of Talaphonas per Thousand Inhabitants

Naabec of Iiitalled Television Sets

PAGE 34

TABLE 14

Banking by Sector

PAGE 35

TABLE 15

Table of Zoaputar Industry Development Potaatial (3IDP) Indicator Groups

cojNrar 3IDP (GR3UP A) ARG BRA HEX 76.42 69.69 69.23 (38311? B) PRC VEN 61.53 52.01 (3H3UP C) zai COL 3RU PAM ZOS PER COB 40.55 39.25 38.52 38.32 34.53 32.20 31.63 {3B3UP D) JIC D01 ECU PAa ELS GU& 30L HON 27. 16 26.27 25.99 24.39 24.33 24.21 23.82 23.08 (GRDaP E) UAI 9. 13

PAGE 36

TABLE 16

raala of _{National Magnitude Sets}

COUNTRY loc[_GN£

PAGE 37

TABLE 17

ri3l2 3f A£fine CIDP within

National Hagnitude Sets

couursY NMS CIDP SEX BBA Aas I A I A I A VSN pa: ZiL C3L CJ3 uau PSB SJA e:u II II II II II II II II II B B C C C C D D P\N CDS D3H ELS B3L SIC PAR Hkl III III III III III III III III III C c D D D D D D E

PAtiE 33

ANALYSIS OF CIDP

rae indi:;dtoc icrivsi at, taa CIDP (Computer Industry Development

?3t2atiai),

an

ba issaaad to give at least a crude measure ot the

pjtsatial devalapmeat of a computer user industry in a country. The Lidlcitoc ranje is from to 100, this maximuia fagare corresponding to

aa iiaal couatry whi^h jouli occupy ranking one in ail factors Al

tlirouga C4. In tha present ::iDP listing, Argentina is the country with

the highest indicator (76.42), and Haiti (9.13) is the ono with tha

iDwast.

It is also obvious thit the 3IDP is a dyndmic indicator whicu changes Mheasvrer a naa base -ountry tor any of the given factors is taken.

Ills would force to a new iteration of CIDP values periodically, which

wjuli praoably not altar the rankings very much if the time between

:;omputatioas were modarate (i.e., two years).

rae -IDP groups, craitad by bunched distribution of tha indicators,

aaw constitute a raiitivaly safe coanon ground for certain general

treads and policies rfhich may compose a guideline for development of

tie joapiitar iadustc/, and must therefore be operated within the

ontaxt

of tha general ZIDP concentration groups derived in a previous

section. The combination of thase two elements yields the composita

PAGF 39

functional sets ot countries with similar national levels of operation

and k>otential for coaputar industry development, with this in haud i

Bjre detailed analysis oi the elements involved in each set can

janecite an initial frimework within which governments can dictate a gaaaril policy that *ill guide the industry, hopefully, to yield an 3ffectiv2 and efficieit contribution to the national development.

A3 t3 the criteria usad ia the creation of the CIDP groups, a certain

amount of bias was ainittedly present, though fundamented on pragmatic

oDsecirations and personal axperience. The ARG, BRA, MEX triangle was

clearly one group. Alsj staniiag out at the lower end was Haiti all by

itsalf. The 4.47 point spread between COB and NIC was the significant

gap ia the whole CHI (41.15) to HON (23.08) range. The question of

pLaciig PHC and /EN

as

a matter of some initial concern, since the

first was actually cljsar to SEX than to VEN. However, since the whole

question of the Puarto Rican situation, because of its special

calationship with thj United States, is open to question; it seemed l3gical to place it with VEN, whose oil rich economy also places it in

a special position.

Tie last point to be laie concerns the fact that the data utilized is

relatively dated. Working with the World Tables of February 1971,

waich reflects conditions of at least 15 months prior, the results

aust aa lookad at carafully. Hawever, upon actual field research on

PAGE 40

*is i3tec«inel that ttie cateyarization stands relatively firm still

rftt™ tKo i^xception3. ThasK ace Aryentina and Nicaiayua. In t ho c:-i;;c of

Acyaatina, it is claic that at this point it has tallfM. hi-fhin<J hotii

i3cazLL and MeKico. chis is probably due to the eff£;cts ot tha

political instability and its economic repercussions over the last few /ears. Nizarajua owas its drop basically to the earthquake of December

1972, when the wtiola :;ouatry's economy was set back considerably. In

ildition, an observation must be made concerning Cuba. Dae to its

basic political and aconomic differences with respect to tlie rest or

Latia America, its position in the categorization may Da challenged.

Tie variables selected don't necessarily have the same meaning nere. And ::uba's decision to manufacture minicomputers, and implement a

natioaal computation system, give it certain advantages within the

PAGE U1

;i&BACIEai^&TION AND SUMMARY

Jace the aategorizatian has baan established, it becomes interestiag t3 l33k at the results i bit more closely. There ace five CIDP groups,

Lieatifiei by the lettacs A to E. The ascendiag alphabetical order is Lidi::itiv2 of a lows: rating in CIDP score. The members of Group A

tiive i higher index than thosa of Group B, C, D, or E, and are thus

assuiad to haye a higasr poteatial for developing a computer industry,

ilithia each group th^ra are soae differences in range, altnough no Latar-group gap is smaller than an intra-group gap, with the exception

it tli2 Maitico-Pierto 3iCO, Puerto Rico- Venezuela gap. That is, between

tie list country of Scoup A (lexico) and the first country of Group B

(Puarto R1.30), thara is a larger point difference than between Puerto

aico and its immediata lower neighbor within Group B (Venezuela). Du9 to its special politicil and economical association with the United

Statas, Puerto Rico's situation in Group B is very much a reflection

of tha vast ZIDP of tha anital States, and any attempt to place it in

a higaer group would be inappropriate. Out of the twenty-one nations

stuiiad the count witiin the different groups was as follows:

Group A 3

Groap B 2

Group C 7

Group D B

Group E 1

This tally is interaiting from various points of view, but some of

taesa will become obvious as wa undertake the characterization of tha

PAGE 42

pDoLs based oa thaic jcoup aembecship, foe a possible regional center

analysis.

It is now prjper that certain tangible attributes be identified with

the 3IDP groups. What charactaristics do the members of a same class

aive in commoa? dow ioas ona country advance or descend into another jcoiip? Can ona assuma that similar lines of action are possible within the same group? An attampt to answer these questions begins with the

^laca^tecizatioa of tha groups. la order to do this, two primary

33uc-is will be relied upon. The first of these is personal

^xpacieace. The secoil is iafinition of levels of computer activity

i^ne by the ACAST locking Group on Computer Technology (1) and

jcesaitel in thaic 1971 publication (2). The levels defined are

ibstcacted in the folLiwing manner:

INiri&L: Ihara ira no operational computers in the country.

A faw nationals hava had contact with computing. The only

local sourcas of information are computer salesmen.

MSIC:

Theea is some understanding of computers in

jDvacamant and private decision centers. A few computer

installatioa s are to ba found. There are some nationals

involved in computer operations. There is some education and training in -oaputar technology in the country. Computers ace used in basic goveranent operations.

^PEBATIDNAL: There is extensive understanding of computers

in gsvarnmaat and private decision centers. Among tha

numarous conputar iastallatioas there are some very large

machines. Iiere are centers for education and training in

computer ta^iaology and some are of excellent quality. They

offer dagcea programs in computer or information science.

Taera is iasign aad production of software and some

manafacture of hacdware. Computers are affecting many

PAGE U3

ADVANCED: flist govecnmeut and aciministrati ve work is carried

3Ut hf coapjters. rhare are well established professional activities ini aational meetings on computers. There is a complete raage of quality education and training programs.

Tae number of computers, of all sizes, is increasing

rapidly, rim a-sharing, teleprocessing and remote job entry

are common. There is design and production of both hardware

and softwara. Many technologies have been changed or are in

the caucse jf being changed. New applications of computers

are found CJjularly. There is strong participation in and

contributioa to iatarnational activities.

rie33 levels are asefil, though not totally complete or well defined,

3La~2 it is possible for a country to be "basic" in one aspect and

•operational" in anothar. This was recognized by the ACASX-MG as a

IrawbacJc of the schama, but it is helpful nonetheless.

If 33e tries to relate CIDP groups and these activity levels, an

interesting situatioa develops. Of course, the countries of Latin

i^aeri-a can ba place! within the corresponding level, but in order to pcoparly identify thsLc status an extension of the U.N. level concept IS aecessary. This ii easily i one by including the transitions as

iitecim lavels also. 3n::e this is done, this characterization of

cjmputer activity in i country could be correlated with the CIDP group conc3pt rather ni-eiy. For example, the levels would now appear:

INITIAL

INiriAL-rO-BASIC BASIC

BASIC-r3-0PEaATI0SAL OPERATIDNAL

OPERATI3NAL-rD-ADVANCED ADVANCED

PAGE 44

tae pcioc level aai thosa Df the following one. A corresponclence» of

PAGE U5

rABi.B_V7

C3rc2spondea::s of CIDP Groups and

Expanded UN Level Concept

INITIAL*****G«OUP E lNITIAL-rO-BASIC*****GROUP D BASI3*****GR0UP C BA5t:-T0-0PERATI0NAL*****GR0UP U 3PERATIONAL*****GeO0P A DPERiriONAL-ID-ADVANCED************ ADVANCED**

******

PAGE 46

\ sfecitic characterization of the CIDP groups can now be made

itiLiiincj part o£ ttia U.N. liEinitions, and adapting them to a more

realistic situation o£ Latitt Anarica.

Jroup E, which is roughly equivalent to the initial level, doas follow

that pattern rather ::lDS2ly. There are no operational computers in

diiti (3). Dnly a few nationals have had some contact with computing.

The local sources of information are almost non-existent. The small

iiou3t of data processing related activity that exists in the country

L3 soie manufacturing of magnetic core jBemories. The inexpensive labor

fjual offarad gaol incaative tor some U.S. manufacturers to establish

tttemsalves there tor these purposes. Some large scale iiaypunching is

also being ione by an Amarican-Haitian combine, through daily

ialivaries to San Juaa, and Miaai, but it was still on an experimental

basis as of early 1971. Tiare are no major manufacturers marketing

vary actively in Haiti IBM does not have an office but through

tieLc otfica agiipaent representatives some manufacturers such as NCa,

3: aurroughs could possibly fill orders should they arise. Group E is at a relatively primitive stage of technological development, and its

::edp coaponaats indicata littla potential for a future industry.

Tie aambers of CIDP Group D are varied, and they come mainly from the

Jantral American and Caribbaan area, with the addition of Bolivia, Ecuador and Paraguay from tha South American region. Major computer

aanificturars are astablishal with marketing offices in all of these

countries, with U.S. firms dominant in general. There are relatively

PACK 47

calatLvely stcaigatfocwird business applications. Witli the possible

tjxcaptioa of soiue lastallations at a large American subsidiary, most

flichiies ia the coaatcf are small. There is some computing within the

government, but it is very unsophisticated. Operations and data

pcepacation are in nativa hands, as is most simple programming. Almost all systems programmiaj ioaa is imported, as well as most systems

analysis and design aeyoni a minimal level of corapleicity. Basic

nfjcnation

and trailing is provided by the manufacturer through

aithac importing persannal, or by utilizing extra-national education

canters. An interesting development here is the general practice of

aost manufacturers to provila training at higher levels in the centers

j£ a aore advancad :;ountry naarby. The potential for sharing and aid

iioag the developing countries in Latin America is great, and the

groaalwocic is laid i ;i this manner. Thus, most of Central America

travaLs to Maxico fjr computing education. Most of southern South

Aieri:;a goas to Argentina, and northern South America generally drifts

tawari Vaaazaela or laxico. Brazil is not as utilized due to the

language diffarence, and the United States is left further in reserve

tor :;omplex systams pro3lems. A typical Group D country has very

littia in the way of strong private (non-manufacturer) DP education,

i^aypunching and oparitioas, as well as some concepts of mechanized a-couating are generally given within the commercial curriculums of

sacaalary schools, or in independent commercial training centers.

jroup Z is tha most heterogeneous of all, and therefore the most

ditfi:;ult one to analyze and characterize. With members as far apart

PAGE 48

spe-icic jiobil set of attributes to the group. In addition, since JIDP attempts to iadicate potential for the establishment oi <i

jjopatar user industry, it is a function of the country's politics by

way of their effects on the economic, educational and technological

status. rherafore it will increase or decrease, depending on tha

D^nafits of tha ovscall conduct of a government's activities. A

classic case, in this saasa is Cuba, where due to its political

paiiDsophy and its international repercussions, no computers actually aatarad tha country froa 1960 to 1967, with the exception of one used Elliatt 803 (4). Of ^aurse, the circumstances which sometimes cause

ctiesa occurrences can very rarely be predicted by CIDP. Nonetheless,

jC3ap C couitrias janerally present the following situation. A

considerable number of computers exist in the country. Most all

programming is dona by native personnel, even some systems

programming. Systems analysis and design is rapidly being taXen over

by aativas, as is most DP manajemant. Service bureau operations appear with same consistency, lost of the manufacturers staff is also native,

witti tne possible excaptxDn of top management. Business schools offer

calatively g3od pragrams in DP activities, such as computer

projramming, computac operation, etc. Universities offar computer

related courses, primarily within their business, science and

angiaaering curriculuis. In some cases, independent degrees in

c:}Bputer science, or concentration in programming within Mathematics

Ls offered.

k nata must ba made hare to axplain the case of Cuba, which does not

PAGE 49

latac-Anecican systei, foe reasons not relevant to discuss , Cuba has

£olL3*ed a relatively different path toward the development of a

::j«3iter iadiistry. Uniac a totally centralized economic system, and a

uttiias eiacatiaaal structure, the country has embarked on a very ambitious program for ieveloping their potential. Guided by French alvisars as of 1938, (6) the gDvernaent has acquired a number of IRIS

sarias computars, aai has 2V2n been attempting to manufacture their

3wn 3»all 4K machine. Thus, it Ls vary difficult to compare Cuba «ith

tie cast of tha Latia American nations, since their models are so

iLffacent. In additioa, very little information actually leaks out on

aiat LS occurcing inside of Cuba technologically. Yet it is hoped that

this study will also aid in placing this Island in its proper

perspective with resp2::t to the rest of Latin America.

With the exception of Sroup E, the smallest of all is 3, with only two

members: Puerto Rico lad Venezuela. While the two countries are quite

iistiact there are also remarkable similarities and cultural patterns.

is fac as their potential for a computer industry, both score high at

present, it the same time, there is also a certain artificiality in

taeir ecDQomies. In Puerto Ri::o, it is a direct connection to the

Uaitai States, and ia Venezuela it is an indirect one through the

patroleua indistry. Ii both cases the future is very much dependent

on thase special relitioaships. Nonetheless, the characteristics of

Scoup B are clear, raflecting very much the U.S. influence in the

computer field. Systems aaalysis and development, as well as

pcogrammiag, are totilly in native hands. User groups are organized

PAGE 50

ncipLeat. Data pcacessiog schools are established wholly dedicated to

systass tcainiog. &

FMR

amoaat of consulting is beginning to be done

3/ latives, and sone software is being produced. Many

-DBputer-Dcieated coucses or full-time computer science curriculums

Qow 2xist in the anivarsities. Some teleprocessing systems are

istablishai, and tima-sharing is beginning to be studied. Government pirti-ipation and awacaaess in~reases beyond the point of just being a

Bijar user. \a internal consulting office is usually established

withia tha government, and a centralizad installation serves as a

Laadec foe tha industcy.

jcoup & probably presants tha most homogeneous front. Of course, there

acB ?ist diffarences between Argentina, Brazil and Mexico. Yet, when

aae CDinpaces them to the diversity of Group C, they seem minor. The

iaval of technoiogi::al advancement in the three countries is

ralatively similar, aad economically they are also remarkably close.

3f coarse, Brazil still remains the great "sleeping giant" of Latin

kieri::a, and is only now giving signs of waking up. If and when it Ijes, it will probablf expand beyond predictions. There is some fear

aLraaiy, within South American circles, of Brazilian "imperialism" as

corawarned by the man/ entrepranuers extending beyond its own borders and setting up shop ia Peru, Uruguay, Bolivia, Paraguay, and Colombia,

aioag others. Argentina also presents an interesting panorama. Tha

«3st educated of Latin Aaeri-an states (91.5X literacy), it has had soma aajor political difficulties in tha last decade. This has had a^ tiagatlve effect on its e-onomy. A rather bleak picture could develop

PAGE 51

calatLveiy stable p3litL::s as Mexico presently enjoys, would be

M3l::3Be by AirgeatiQi. lexicD has shown a gradual increase and

LBpcD/easnt in most sectors, leading to an environment in which a

computer user industry of soma sophistication is already supported. Of

C3urs3, its proximit/ to tha United States has been an important

factor. In general. Group A countries have most government and

iiministrative work :;arri2i out by computers. There are well

33tablish3d private DP schools. Manufacturers and consultants offer

sophisticated systems courses. Professional DP organizations are

already fairly well the norm. User groups are effective. There is

iacreasinj participation in, and sponsorship, of international

D?-r2Ldted activitias. Cartaia support for neighboring less advanced

lanis is attemptel. Jnivarsitias offer formal degree programs in the

computer or information sciences. Planning and policy for tne

iavalopmeat of the data processing industry is also a concern of

government, and soma involvement in the matter is desired. Certain

treai towards the manuf act iring of small systems is seen within

acadenic circles.

ruis description of tia CIDP groups has loosely presented the general

situation for tha maibar countries. The characteristics of the

different groups can ba prasaated more compactly, and summarized in

the following manner:

aSQiP-E No operatioaal computers in country.

Very few nationals have had contact with computers. Almost no local sour-as of information.

PAGE 52

Maniifactuce-3 barely established for marketing.

!i^oyP_D Relatival/ ferf compaters in country.

Manufacturers nell astablished in country.

A fan yovernment installations doing administrative work. Operations ini lata preparation, as well as most elementary programnia^, in native hands.

Systems analysis and development, and DP manajement mostly iapjrted.

Basic systeas training provided by manufacturer.

Business s^i3ols -ommenciag to offer some courses in

kaypunchiay, operations and mechanized accounting.

5MQi£_C 3onsiierabli nuaber of computers in country.

Ml

programoing done by native personnel, even some basic

systems programming.

Systems analysis and design being rapidly taken over by

natives.

Adequate servica bureau operations appear with consistency. 3usinass scijols oftar good programs in DP activities, such

as jperatioas, keypunching, mechanized accounting.

(jQiversitie* commenca to offer some computer-oriented

courses within thair business, science and engineering

cure iculums.

Some initial government awareness of computer industry as an aatity in itself

Insinuations of usar jroups and professional organizations.

H01JP_B Considerable number of computers in country, including some faiciy lacga ones (6) .

Systems analysis, development and DP management at almost all lavals jarriai out by native personnel.

Soma celati?aly complex applications inmplemented. Elementary taleprocassing systems are established.

PAGE 53

User jrou^s aca organized as well as professional

or^anizatiais, altbouqh they yield very lithle actual

ben.^lit tJ ai;»ibsrs.

Diti pLJcessiivj schjols ii re established, tot^illy deaivciie.i

to systems education.

Consulting tasks not* taken on increasingly by native

personnel, ind soma software production commenced.

Heavy ::Dmpiter-oriented courses given at universities,

including probable concentrations in programiuing within the

mathematics or anginaaring departments.

Governmaat awareness and participation increase.

3^0iJP_A Large numbac oE :;omputer3 in country (7), in most ranges, sizes and moials.

Most major gavernmant and administrative work carried out by computers.

Well established private data processing schools.

Consultants and manufacturers offer sophisticated systems courses.

Professional DP organizations flourish.

Usee groups largely increase their productivity and

information sharing is incremented.

Participation in and sponsorship of international activities

is incipient.

Soma support offerei to neighboring less advanced countries.

Oniversitias offar formal degree programs in computer or

information sciences.

Planning ani poli-y for the industry seen as major concern by governmant, ani some research is done in the matter.

Certain wort done towards the manufacture of small systems,

TABLE 19

Sanaral Infaraatioa ou the Latin Americdn Nations

PAGE 04

:3UNrRif ABBR. CAPITAL AREA (SQ. MI.) POP. (?1)

AIGENTINA AR3

B3Lt7IA BOL

BRAZIL BRA

zaiLS :;Hr

C3L0MQIA COL

ZDSTA RICA COS

CJBA CUB DDMINECAN RSP. DOS iiCUADJR ECU EL SALVADOR ELS ^JATEMALA GUA HAITI HAL rfONOURAS HON hexi:j hex nicaragua nic ?ANA»\ PAN PARAGJAY PAR PERU PER PJERTJ RICO PRC UaU3U\lf URU VENEZUELA VEN BUEN3S AIRES SUCRE (LA PAZ) BRASILIA SANTIAGO BOGOTA SAN J:)5E LA HABANA SANTJ DOMINGO 2UirD SAN SALVADOR GUATEMALA PORT-AU-PBINCE TEGUCIGALPA MEXICO CITSf MANAGUA PANA:»A CITY ASUNCION LIMA SAN JUAN MONTEVIDEO CARACAS 1,072,068 i*2H, 163 3,266,473 292,257 439,513 19,653 44,218 18,703 104,506 8,083 42,042 10,714 43,277 759,530 53,668 29,208 157,047 494,293 3,435 72,172 347,029 24. 352 4.931 92.238 8.836 21.116 1.766 8.250 4.012 6.093 3.515 5.170 4.867 2.582 48. 313 1.982 1.415 2.374 13.586 2.677 2.886 10.399

SOURCE: 1970 fijiicas from "Socio-EconoiDic Progress in the

Latin American," L nter-American Development Bank

1970 Anaual Report.

PAGE 55

HEftiRENCES

1) Aa dd hoc 4 3rki.u<j jroup was estdblished by tlit;

AwASr (Advisocy Coiamittee on the Application of

Science and Technology to Development) to do the initial inwastigations on computer technology that

led to the publication of the pamphlet in (24).

2) UN ACASr, (24) p 50.

3) This was the case as of December 1972.

'4) Caruota Lauzan ₍₇₎ , p 2.

3) Personal cjlaunication to the author by Ing.

3altran at tha Jarusalera Conference on Information Technoloyy, Aug. 1971.

S) See definitions UN ACAST (24), p 29.

PAGE 5b

BIBLIOGRAPHY

1. Allan, r.J., Piepmeiar, and Cooney, S, , "Technology Transfer

to DevaiopLnj Countries: the International Technological

Gatekeeper,' Sloan School of Management Working Paper, MIT,

February 1971.

2. Alvarez, S. and Barguin, R., "The State of Computer Arts in

PuectD Rico," Ravista del Colegio de tngenieros, Arguitectos

y Ajrimaasoras de Puerto Rico, 20:2 April-May-June 1970.

3. Baltran, S.F., "Zoaputing in Latin America," Datamation,

March 1968.

4. Benjamin, i.B.lil., _{ii3^£ Education in the Latin _ASSEiiiSi} EeElbli^s, IcGraw-Hill, New~York, 1965, 22Upp.

5. Blaxter, 2.a., "National Policies in Computer Education and

Training Sitting Guidelines for the Developing Countries,"

Procreedings of tha Jerusalem Conference on Information

Technology, Jerusalem, 1:89, August 1971.

5. Boehm, B.W., "Computing in South America: Some Observations

and Policy ilonsideritions, " Datamation, January 1970.

7. Caraota Lauzan, 0., "La Aplicacion de las Com i;utadoras en el Caapo Econoaico en un Pais en Vias de Desarrollo: Cuba," Projeadings of the Conference on the Role of Computers in Economic ani SDcial Research in Latin America, Cuernavaca,

Mexico, October 25-29, 1971. (To be published by the

National Bucaau of Economic Research.)

3. Connolly, J., "Chronology of Computing in Africa, Asia, Europe and, Latin America," IBM World Trade Corp., 1968.

9. Cowan, D. D. , Olinto, A.C., and Spann, R.N., "Report on

Computer Scieaca Education in Certain Latin American

Countri.es," Report Commissioned by the Organization of

American Stitas, Washington, D.C.,

10- Friadmaan, E. , "Management of Computer Resources in Less

Devaloped Countries," Jerusalem Conference on Information Technology, Jarusalai, 1:295, August 1971.

11. Giagold, J. I. , "The Potential for High Level Computer

Manpower ia South America," Sloan School of Management Master's Ihasis, HIT, June 1970. November 1969. McGraw-Hill,

PAGE 57

12. alaser, S., "Tha -antrdlization vs. Decent.rdliz.it ion Issno:

Aryuments, Alternitives and c;uiJ*^lines, " li.^t.» ii.is.«

(Quicteriy aewsletter of the ACN«s SIGBDP) , 2:3 Fdil/wiiit.M

1970.

13. Hagaa, E.E., rha Ecpaomics of Developaent« Richard D. Irwin,

lac,

HomewjDd, 111., 1968, 536pp.

14. Mass, D.N., "Soma Comments on the Role of Computers in

Maaageaant Eiucition," Sloan School of Management Internal

Paper, NIT, April 1959.

15) Pollitzar, 3., '•Elacation: The Enzyme for Computer

Assifflilition, •• Jerusalem Conference on Infornation

Technolagy, Jerusalem, 2:76, August 1971.

16. Pool, I.dS. , Stona, P., Szalai, A., "Communications,

Computers aal Automation for Development," UNITTAR Research Raport, 1971.

17. Tomiin, R. , !ianaiiag[ the Introduction of Computer Systems,

HcGrai*-Hill, LondonJ 1970.

18. "America en Cifras 1970, Situacion Economica: 2.

Industria," Se::retariat General of the Organization of

American Statas, Washington, D.C., February 1971.

19. '•America en Cifras 1970, Situacion Economica: 3. Comarcio, Tcansporta, Comunicaciones y Turismo," Secretariat General of tha Organization of American States, Washington, D. C. , February 1971.

20. "Informa Aauai 1969," Annual Report of the Puerto Rico Devalopment Bank, Novamber 1969.

2 1. "Inforie la la Mision de Evaluacion de los Sisteinas de

DifusLon le la Informacion Tecnologica en Uruguay,

Argantiua, Chile, Peru, Brasil, Venezuela, Colombia _y

Maxico," Report of the Scientific Department of the

Drganiza tiod of Amarican States, Hashington, D.C., January

1971.

22. "PuertD Bicj in Figures 1969," Publication of the

Government Devalopmant Bank for Puerto Rico, San Juan,

Puerto Rico, 1970.

23. "Statisti:;al Compandium of the Americas 19b9," Department

of Statistiirs of tia Pan American Union and the Inter

PAGE 58

21. "The Application of Computer Techoology for Development," United Nations Publication, New York, 1971.

25. "Socio-E^onomic Progress in Latin America," Tenth Annual

Report ot Che Social Progress Trust Fund of the

Iat3r-Aaeri:;aa Developiaent Bank, Washington, D.C., February

1971.

26. "liorld Tibles," prepared by the International Bank for Beconstruction and Development (IBRD), Washington, D.C., February 1971.

27) Westrick, J.8., "A Policy Towards Better Computer

Utilization in Davaloping Countries," September 1969.

(Westrick ^as an A.I.D. advisor on DP to the Uruguayan

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