• Aucun résultat trouvé

Thermal maturity of the Swiss Molasse Basin: indications for paleogeothermal anomalies ?

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2022

Partager "Thermal maturity of the Swiss Molasse Basin: indications for paleogeothermal anomalies ?"

Copied!
21
0
0

Texte intégral

(1)

Article

Reference

Thermal maturity of the Swiss Molasse Basin: indications for paleogeothermal anomalies ?

SCHEGG, Roland Albert

Abstract

Ce travail présente une étude de la maturation de la matière organique dans les sédiments de la Molasse du Plateau et de la Molasse subalpine en Suisse, et un essai de reconstitution de l'histoire thermique de l'avant-pays alpin au cours du Tertiaire. 136 échantillons de charbon ont été analysés. Leur pouvoir réflecteur moyen de la vitrinite (Rr) varie de 0.21 % à 0.97%.

La distribution de la réflectance de la vitrinite met en évidence un contrôle stratigraphique sur la maturation de la matière organique. Les valeurs moyennes varient de 0.39% Rr pour les échantillons de l'OSM à 0.53% Rr pour ceux de l'USM. Les courbes d'égal pouvoir réflecteur montrent une tendance régionale indiquant clairement une maturation croissante vers le front alpin. Cette tendance régionale est compliquée par des variations secondaires dans la Molasse du Plateau, qui semblent être liées à des accidents tectoniques. Ces derniers peuvent suivre les vallées principales (lac de Zürich). La modélisation thermique indique des paléotempératures maximales qui sont de l'ordre de 40, 70, 90 et 110 °C pour des valeurs de [...]

SCHEGG, Roland Albert. Thermal maturity of the Swiss Molasse Basin: indications for paleogeothermal anomalies ? Eclogae Geologicae Helvetiae, 1992, vol. 85, no. 3, Symposium on Swiss Molasse Basin, p. 745-764

DOI : 10.5169/seals-167031

Available at:

http://archive-ouverte.unige.ch/unige:154281

Disclaimer: layout of this document may differ from the published version.

1 / 1

(2)

7KHUPDO PDWXULW\ RIWKH 6ZLVV 0RODVVH %DVLQ

,QGLFDWLRQV IRU SDOHRJHRWKHUPDO DQRPDOLHV"

%\

5RODQG

6FKHJJ

.H\ :RUGV YLWULQLWH UHIOHFWDQFH WKHUPDO PRGHOOLQJ IOXLG IORZ IRUHODQG EDVLQ 6ZLW]HUODQG 0RODVVH

$%675$&7

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

$UHDVRILQFUHDVHGYLWULQLWHUHIOHFWDQFHRFFXUQHDUIDXOW]RQHVRUOLHSDUDOOHOWRDPDMRU WRSRJUDSKLFVWUXFWXUH/DNH

=ULFK ZKLFK PD\ EH WHFWRQLFDOO\ FRQWUROOHG 7KHUPDO PRGHOOLQJ RIRXWFURS VDPSOHV LQ WKH 3ODWHDX 0RODVVH UHTXLUHVPD[LPXPSDOHRWHPSHUDWXUHV RIDERXW DQG ƒ&IRUPHDVXUHGYLWULQLWH UHIOHFWDQFH YDOXHVRI

DQG UHVSHFWLYHO\ 7KHVH WHPSHUDWXUHVFRXOGKDYHRFFXUUHG LQDK\SRWKHUPDO SHULSKHUDO IRUHODQG EDVLQLIHURGHGRYHUEXUGHQ WKLFNQHVVHVRIXS WR NP DUH DVVXPHG +RZHYHUWKHUH LVQRJHRORJLFDO HYLGHQFH IRU WKLV DPRXQW RIEXULDO DQG FRQVHFXWLYH XSOLIWHURVLRQ GXULQJ WKH 1HRJHQH HVSHFLDOO\ LQ WKH GLVWDO SDUWV RIWKH 0RODVVH EDVLQ 7KHUPDO PRGHOOLQJ WDNLQJ LQWR DFFRXQW FRQYHFWLYH KHDW WUDQVSRUW FRXOG H[SODLQ LQ SDUW WKH LQIHUUHG SDOHRWHPSHUDWXUHVDQG WKH REVHUYHGFRDOLILFDWLRQ SDWWHUQV =RQHVRILQFUHDVHGWKHUPDOPDWXUDWLRQPD\

WKHUHIRUH EH UHODWHG WRDQ LQFUHDVHG UHJLRQDO GLVFKDUJHRIZDUP JURXQGZDWHU FRQWUROOHG E\ WHFWRQLF VWUXFWXUHV

5(680(

&HWUDYDLOSUpVHQWH XQHpWXGHGH OD PDWXUDWLRQGH OD PDWLqUHRUJDQLTXH GDQV OHVVpGLPHQWVGH OD 0RODVVHGX 3ODWHDXHW GHOD0RODVVH VXEDOSLQH HQ 6XLVVH HWXQHVVDL GHUHFRQVWLWXWLRQGHOKLVWRLUHWKHUPLTXHGHODYDQWSD\V DOSLQ DX FRXUV GX 7HUWLDLUH pFKDQWLOORQV GHFKDUERQ RQW pWp DQDO\VpV /HXU SRXYRLU UpIOHFWHXU PR\HQ GHOD YLWULQLWH5UYDULH GH j /DGLVWULEXWLRQGH ODUpIOHFWDQFHGHOD YLWULQLWHPHWHQpYLGHQFH XQFRQWU{OH VWUDWLJUDSKLTXH VXU ODPDWXUDWLRQGH ODPDWLqUH RUJDQLTXH /HV YDOHXUV PR\HQQHV YDULHQWGH 5U SRXUOHV pFKDQWLOORQV GH O260 j 5U SRXUFHX[ GH O860 /HV FRXUEHV GpJDO SRXYRLU UpIOHFWHXU PRQWUHQW XQH WHQGDQFH UpJLRQDOH LQGLTXDQW FODLUHPHQW XQH PDWXUDWLRQFURLVVDQWH YHUVOH IURQW DOSLQ &HWWH WHQGDQFH UpJLRQDOH HVWFRPSOLTXpHSDUGHVYDULDWLRQVVHFRQGDLUHV GDQV OD 0RODVVHGX 3ODWHDXTXL VHPEOHQW rWUH OLpHV j GHVDFFLGHQWV WHFWRQLTXHV &HVGHUQLHUV SHXYHQW VXLYUHOHVYDOOpHV SULQFLSDOHVODFGH=ULFK /D PRGpOLVDWLRQ WKHUPLTXH LQGLTXH GHVSDOpRWHPSpUDWXUHV PD[LPDOHVTXLVRQWGHORUGUHGH HW ƒ&SRXUGHVYDOHXUV GH UpIOHFWDQFHGHOD YLWULQLWHGH HWUHVSHFWLYHPHQW $GPHWWDQWXQSDOpRJUDGLHQW JpRWKHUPLTXHGH ƒ&NPRQDUULYH

jGHVYDOHXUV GHQIRXLVVHPHQWTXL YDULHQWHQWUH HWNP,O\DMXVTXjSUpVHQW DXFXQ PRGqOH JpRORJLTXHYLDEOH TXLSRXUUDLW H[SOLTXHUODVpGLPHQWDWLRQHWOpURVLRQFRQVpFXWLYHGXQH FRXYHUWXUHPRODVVLTXHVLGpYHORSSpHVXUWRXW GDQVOHVSDUWLHV GLVWDOHV GXEDVVLQ /D PRGpOLVDWLRQ WKHUPLTXHDYHFXQ PRGqOH TXL LQFOXW OH WUDQVSRUWGHFKDOHXU SDU FRQYHFWLRQ SHUPHW GLQWHUSUpWHU OpWDW GH OD PDWXUDWLRQ WKHUPLTXH GX EDVVLQ PRODVVLTXHDYHF GHV YDOHXUV

6ZLVV 1DWLRQDO )RXQGDWLRQ IRU 6FLHQWLILF 5HVHDUFK 3URMHFW : :LOGL

'pSDUWHPHQWGH *pRORJLHHW 3DOpRQWRORJLH UXHGHV 0DUDvFKHUV &+ *HQqYH

(3)

GHQIRXLVVHPHQW PRGHVWHV NP /HV YDULDWLRQV VHFRQGDLUHV GH OD UpIOHFWDQFHGH OD YLWULQLWH SRXUUDLHQW rWUH DVVRFLpHVj GHV DQRPDOLHVSDOpRJpRWKHUPLTXHV GXHV jOD UHPRQWpHGHDX[ FKDXGHV GDQVGHV]RQHV WHFWRQLVpHV

,QWURGXFWLRQ

7KH JHRWKHUPDO UHJLPH LQ SHULSKHUDO IRUHODQG EDVLQV LV JHQHUDOO\ FKDUDFWHUL]HG DV

K\SRWKHUPDO WKDW LVFRROHUWKDQ QRUPDO $OOHQ $OOHQ 5REHUW 7KH SUHVHQW WKHUPDO FRQGLWLRQV

RI

WKH 6ZLVV 0RODVVH EDVLQ LQGLFDWH D ORZ JHRWKHUPDO UHJLPH RQ D EDVLQZLGHVFDOH *HRWKHUPDO JUDGLHQWVJUDGXDOO\ GHFUHDVH

IURP !

ƒ&NPFORVH

WR

WKH 5KLQH *UDEHQ LQWKH

1RUWK

WR

ƒ&NPWRZDUGV WKH$OSV 5\EDFK 7KH SUHVHQW KHDW

IORZ

SDWWHUQ LVFKDUDFWHUL]HG E\ VHYHUDO SRVLWLYHDQRPDOLHV LQWKH HDVWHUQ SDUW

RI

WKH

EDVLQ DQG D PRUH RU OHVV SURQRXQFHG WUHQG

RI

GHFUHDVLQJ YDOXHV

P:P WRZDUGV WKH $OSV 6FKZHL]HULVFKH *HRSK\VLNDOLVFKH .RPPLVVLRQ

6LPLODU JUDGLHQWV DUH UHSRUWHG

IRU

WKH *HUPDQ 0RODVVH EDVLQ 9ROOPD\U 7HLFKPOOHU 7HLFKPOOHU LQWHUSUHWHG WKH REVHUYHG GHFUHDVH

RI

FRDOLILFDWLRQ JUDGLHQWV WR 5PNP LQ ERUHKROHV

RI

WKH %DYDULDQ 0RODVVH WRZDUGV WKH 6RXWKDVFDXVHG E\DGHFUHDVH

RIWKH

JHRWKHUPDOJUDGLHQW LQWKH VDPHGLUHFWLRQ 6XFK ORZ JUDGLHQWV ZHUH SUHYDLOLQJ VLQFH /DWH 0LRFHQH3OLRFHQH WLPHV

7KH REVHUYHG GHFUHDVH LQ FRDOLILFDWLRQDQG JHRWKHUPDO JUDGLHQWV LQ WKH

1RUWK

$OSLQH )RUHODQG EDVLQKDYH EHHQH[SODLQHGDV DUHVXOW

RI

WKLFNHQLQJ

RIWKH

FUXVWWRZDUGV WKH$OSV 7HLFKPOOHU 7HLFKPOOHU 5\EDFK 2WKHU

LPSRUWDQW

IDFWRUVFRXOG LQIOXHQFH WKH JHRWKHUPDO SDWWHUQ LQ WKH 0RODVVH EDVLQ

L 7KH V\VWHPDWLF YDULDWLRQ

RI

VHGLPHQW WKLFNQHVV LQFUHDVLQJ WRZDUGV WKH $OSV DQG W\SH

RI

VHGLPHQWV 0RODVVH IRUPDWLRQV DUH FRDUVHU JUDLQHG WRZDUGV WKH $OSV FRXOG DPSOLI\ WKH REVHUYHG WUHQG

RI

WKH JHRWKHUPDO JUDGLHQWV 5\EDFK QRWLFHG WKDW JHRWKHUPDO JUDGLHQWV DUH LQYHUVHO\

SURSRUWLRQDO

WR WKH GHSWK WR EDVHPHQW

$Q LPSRUWDQW FRQWUROOLQJ

IDFWRURQ WKHEXON WKHUPDO SURSHUWLHV

RI

VHGLPHQWDU\ URFNV LV SRURVLW\ GXH WR WKH GLIIHUHQFHV LQ WKH WKHUPDO SURSHUWLHV

RI

WKH SRUH IOXLGV DQG URFN PDWUL[ 7KH VSHFLILF KHDW FDSDFLW\ LVPXFK KLJKHU

IRU

ZDWHU WKDQ

IRU

URFNV E\ D IDFWRU

RI

DERXW WR ZKHUHDV WKH WKHUPDO FRQGXFWLYLW\ LV ORZHU 7KHUHIRUH WKH WKHUPDO

FRQGXFWLYLW\ RI

ZDWHU VDWXUDWHG VHGLPHQWV PD\ LQFUHDVHFRQVLGHUDEO\GXULQJ FRPSDFWLRQ 3RURVLW\

LQ

WKH 6ZLVV 0RODVVH EDVLQ VHHPV WR GHFUHDVH WRZDUGV WKH DOSLQH

IURQW

/HPFNHHW DO GXH WR FHPHQWDWLRQDQGRULQFUHDVHG EXULDO $VVXPLQJ DFRQGXFWLYLW\

GRPLQDWHG JHRWKHUPDO UHJLPH VXFK D SRURVLW\ GHFUHDVH VKRXOG UHVXOW LQ KLJKHU JHRWKHUPDO JUDGLHQWV WRZDUGV WKH $OSV 7KLV LV FRQWUDU\ WR SUHVHQW GD\ REVHUYDWLRQV

LL

*LYHQ WKH KLJK KHDW FDSDFLW\

RI

ZDWHU JHRWKHUPDOJUDGLHQW SDWWHUQVDUH QHFHVVDULO\

LQIOXHQFHG E\ WKH K\GURG\QDPLF UHJLPH

RI

D EDVLQ

+LWFKRQ

/DP HWDO 5HFKDUJHDUHDVWRSRJUDSKLFKLJKVDUHH[SHFWHG WR GLVSOD\ ORZJHRWKHUPDOJUDGLHQWVGXH WR

LQILOWUDWLRQ RI

FROG VXUIDFH ZDWHU$OWHUQDWLYHO\ UHJLRQDO WRSRJUDSKLFORZV PD\ GLVSOD\

KLJK JHRWKHUPDOJUDGLHQWV GXH WRWKH GLVFKDUJH

RI

ZDUP ZDWHU

IURP

GHSWK

DQGRU

GXH WR SHUWXUEDWLRQV

RI

WKHLVRWKHUPVDVDUHVXOW

RI

DWRSRJUDSKLFHIIHFWHJ ULYHUYDOOH\V 7KHUH LVJURZLQJHYLGHQFHWKDW JHRWKHUPDO DQRPDOLHV LQ VHGLPHQWDU\EDVLQV DUH RIWHQFDXVHG E\

XSULVLQJ GHHS JURXQGZDWHU RU RWKHU IOXLGV LQFOXGLQJ ZDWHU

IURP

WKH EDVHPHQW DORQJ KLJKO\ SHUPHDEOH ]RQHV 1HVELWW %HFN

HWDO +LWFKRQ

'HPLQJ

HWDO

FDOFXODWHG WKDW WHPSHUDWXUH SHUWXUEDWLRQ UHVXOWLQJ IURP SRVVLEOH

IOXLG

LQYDVLRQ FDQ EH DV KLJK DV ƒ& &DWKOHV 6PLWK FRQFOXGHG WKDW WKH UHODWLYHO\ KLJK

(4)

WHPSHUDWXUHV & DW VKDOORZ GHSWKV

NP DVVRFLDWHG

ZLWK

WKH

IRUPDWLRQ

RI

0LVVLVVLSSL 9DOOH\W\SH OHDG]LQF GHSRVLWV UHVXOWHGIURPHSLVRGLFGHZDWHULQJ

ZLWK EULHI

SXOVHV

RI

KRW EULQHV FDUU\LQJ KHDW DQG GLVVROYHG VROXWHV WRZDUG EDVLQ PDUJLQV 8SULVLQJ GHHS JURXQGZDWHU LV VXJJHVWHG DV D FDXVH

RI

WKH SUHVHQW GD\ KHDW

IORZ

DQRPDO\

!

P:P LQ WKH GLVWDO SDUW

RIWKH

0RODVVH EDVLQ DQG WKH -XUD UDQJHV LQ

1RUWKHUQ

6ZLW]HUODQG 5\EDFK HW DO

)HZ GDWD KDYH EHHQ SXEOLVKHG RQ WKH WKHUPDO

PDWXULW\ RI

WKH 6ZLVV 0RODVVH EDVLQ 6FKHJJ %XUNKDUG

.DLNUHXWK 0RQQLHU

5\EDFK %RGPHU

.EOHU

HW DO 2XUNQRZOHGJH

RI

WKHEXULDO KLVWRU\ SDOHRJHRWKHUPDO UHJLPH DQGWKH SURFHVVHV ZKLFK FRQWURO WKLV UHJLPH LV WKHUHIRUH TXLWH LQFRPSOHWH ,QGLFDWLRQV

RI

SDOHRJHRWKHUPDO DQRPDOLHV DUH UHSRUWHG IURP WKH :HVWHUQ 0RODVVH EDVLQ 6FKHJJ DQG

IURP

WKH *HUPDQ 0RODVVH EDVLQ -DFRE .XFNHONRUQ 7KH\ DUH SUREDEO\ OLQNHG WR WKH SDOHRK\GURORJLFDO UHJLPH

7KH DLP

RI

WKLV VWXG\ LV WR GHWHUPLQH WKH WKHUPDO

PDWXULW\ RI

VHGLPHQWV IURP WKH 6ZLVV 0RODVVH EDVLQ DQG WR UHFRQVWUXFW LWV WKHUPDO KLVWRU\ GXULQJ WKH &HQR]RLF

>IRU

DQ

LQWURGXFWLRQ

WR WKH JHRORJLFDO VHWWLQJ

RI

WKH 6ZLVV 0RODVVH EDVLQ VHH +RPHZRRG HW DO

3ILIIQHU

0DWWHU

HW DO DQG 7UPS\ @

9LWULQLWH

UHIOHFWDQFH VHH 6WDFK HW DO

IRU

UHIHUHQFHV LV D ZLGHO\ XVHG SDUDPHWHU WR HVWLPDWH WKH GHJUHH

RI

PDWXUDWLRQ

RI

RUJDQLF PDWWHU &RDO VDPSOHV IURP WKH 3ODWHDX 0RODVVH DQG 6XEDOSLQH 0RODVVH

RI

6ZLW]HUODQG KDYH EHHQ FROOHFWHG LQ RUGHU WR

HVWDEOLVK ORFDO DQG UHJLRQDO YDULDWLRQV LQ

YLWULQLWH

UHIOHFWDQFH

H[DPLQH WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ DJH DQG PDWXUDWLRQ

RI

WKH PDMRU 0RODVVH VXEGLYLVLRQV

/RZHU )UHVKZDWHU 0RODVVH 860 8SSHU 0DULQH 0RODVVH

200

8SSHU )UHVKZDWHU 0RODVVH 260

9RVJHV %ODFN NP

5KLQH

?A

)RUHVW 02/$66(

*UDEHQ // )/:%/

Š

6"

AU9 \ U9 U9 U9 UU9 U9

U63æ U6U6

A\M A U9 U9 U9 U9 U U U

æ ææ Y-3Y-3æ æææææ

\\ 9

\M

\M

Vª%%%

A9 BA) B ) B )

‹ A A! ª

V3

6RXWKHUQ $OSV

)LJ 6LPSOLILHG WHFWRQLFPDS RI 6ZLW]HUODQGVKRZLQJ WKH VWXG\ DUHDV , *URVGH9DXG (DVWHUQ 6ZLW]HUODQG

(5)

7KHUPDO PRGHOOLQJ HQDEOHV WKH HVWLPDWLRQ

RI

WKH OHYHO

RI

PDWXUDWLRQ

IRU

D JLYHQ WLPHWHPSHUDWXUH KLVWRU\

,W

DOVR SURYLGHV

LPSRUWDQW LQIRUPDWLRQ

RQ WKH WLPLQJ

RI

PDWXUDWLRQ RQ WKHFDXVHV

RI

YDULDWLRQ LQPDWXUDWLRQ LQFUHDVHV DQG RQ WKH EXULDO KLVWRU\

RI

DEDVLQ 6ZHHQH\ %XUQKDP /DUWHU %XVWLQHW DO :DSOHV 7KH PHDVXUHG GDWD

ZLOO

WKHUHIRUH EH FRPSDUHG WR H[SHFWHG YDOXHV DV REWDLQHG

IURP

PRGHO FDOFXODWLRQV

,Q

WKLV VWXG\ WKH UHJLRQDO SDWWHUQ

RI YLWULQLWH

UHIOHFWDQFH YDULDWLRQ

IRU

WKH *URV'H 9DXG :HVWHUQ 6ZLW]HUODQG DQG

IRU

(DVWHUQ 6ZLW]HUODQG LV RXWOLQHG )LJ

6DPSOLQJ DQG DQDO\WLFDO PHWKRG

FRDO VDPSOHV IURP RXWFURSV

RI

WKH 860 WKH

200

DQG WKH 260 KDYH EHHQ DQDO\]HG

IRU

WKLV VWXG\

,Q

RUGHU WR REWDLQ WKH PRVW UHOLDEOH GDWD RQ WKHUPDO PDWXUDWLRQ RQO\ WKH

YLWULQLWH

UHIOHFWDQFH UHVXOWV

RI

PDFURVFRSLF FRDO\ SDUWLFOHV EUDQFKHV VWHPV DQG FRDO VHDPV DUH LQFOXGHG 3K\WRFODVWV DUH PRVW SUREDEO\ IUDJPHQWV

RI

WKH ZRRG\ PDWHULDO ZKLFK ZDV RIWHQ ZDVKHG LQWR WKH VHGLPHQWDU\ HQYLURQPHQW

RI

WKH 0RODVVH URFNV

7KH DQDO\VLV

RI

VKDOH VDPSOHV IURP WKH 3ODWHDX 0RODVVH FRQWDLQLQJ DEXQGDQW GLVSHUVHG RUJDQLF PDWWHUVKRZVYHU\KLJKUHIOHFWDQFH YDOXHV 5UDQG DODUJH VFDWWHU

RI

WKH PHDVXUHPHQWV 7KHVH REVHUYDWLRQV LQGLFDWH UHZRUNLQJ

RI

RUJDQLF PDWWHU ZKLFK ZDVDOUHDG\FRDOLILHG 7KLV W\SH

RI

PDWHULDOZDV WKHUHIRUHQRWXVHG

IRU

WKLV VWXG\

6XUIDFH VDPSOHV

ZLOO

LQYDULDEO\ EHR[LGL]HG WRVRPH GHJUHH $FFRUGLQJ WR %XVWLQHW DO

YLWULQLWH

UHIOHFWDQFH

RI

QDWXUDOO\ R[LGL]HG FRDOV LV W\SLFDOO\ UHGXFHG +RZHYHU

0DUFKLRQL

IRXQG WKDW ORZUDQN FRDOV VKRZ UHIOHFWDQFH LQFUHDVH

ZLWK

LQFUHDVHG ZHDWKHULQJ 7KH UHODWLYH LQFUHDVH RU GHFUHDVH

RI YLWULQLWH

UHIOHFWDQFH GXH WR ZHDWKHULQJ FDQ EH XS WR

0DUFKLRQL

7KHUHIRUH VPDOO YDULDWLRQV LQ

YLWULQLWH

UHIOHFWDQFH VKRXOG EH LQWHUSUHWHG

ZLWK

FDUH

7KH FRDO VDPSOHV ZHUHFUXVKHG WR DSDUWLFOH VL]H EHWZHHQ DQG XUQ PRXQWHG LQHSR[\UHVLQWKHQJURXQGDQG SROLVKHG

ZLWK

GLIIHUHQW GLDPRQGVSUD\V XUQ 0HDQ UDQGRP

YLWULQLWH

UHIOHFWDQFH

5U

ZDV GHWHUPLQHG XVLQJ D /HLW] 039 FRPSDFW PLFURVFRSH XQGHU VWDQGDUGL]HG FRQGLWLRQV 7KH PHDVXUHPHQW SURFHGXUH IROORZHG WKH UXOHVRXWOLQHG

LQ

WKH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO +DQGERRN

RI

&RDO3HWURORJ\ 7KH UHVXOWV ZHUH REWDLQHG IURP DW OHDVW PHDVXUHPHQWV SHU VDPSOH

&RDOLILFDWLRQ GDWD

7KH UHVXOWV

RI

WKH

YLWULQLWH

UHIOHFWDQFH PHDVXUHPHQWV DUH VXPPDUL]HG LQ WDEOH 5HIOHFWDQFH YDOXHV UDQJH

IURP

5U LQ D VDPSOH

IURP

WKH 8SSHU )UHVKZDWHU

0RODVVH 260

RIWKH +|UQOL

JUDYHO IDQ LQ (DVWHUQ 6ZLW]HUODQG WR 5U LQ D VDPSOH

IURP

WKH /RZHU )UHVKZDWHU 0RODVVH 860 VLWXDWHG LQ WKH 6XEDOSLQH 0RODVVH

RI

:HVWHUQ 6ZLW]HUODQG 7KH

GLVWULEXWLRQ RI YLWULQLWH

UHIOHFWDQFH YDOXHV LQ WKH VWXGLHG

VHGLPHQWDU\ IRUPDWLRQV

860 200

260 FOHDUO\ UHYHDOV WKDW WKHUH LV D VWUDWLJUDSKLH

FRQWURO

RQ PDWXUDWLRQ 0HDQ DYHUDJH YDOXHV LQFUHDVH

ZLWK

DJH

IURP 5U IRU

VDPSOHV IURP WKH PLGGOH 0LRFHQH 260 WR 5U

IRU

VDPSOHV IURP WKH XSSHU 2OLJRFHQH 860 VLWXDWHG LQ WKH 3ODWHDX 0RODVVH

860

VDPSOHV IURP WKH 6XEDOSLQH 0RODVVH VKRZ D VOLJKWO\ KLJKHU DYHUDJH 5U

(6)

1R /RFDWLRQ ;;RRUG <&RRUG 5U 6 1

*526'(9$8' :HVWHUQ 6ZLW]HUODQG

6XEDOSLQH 0RODVVH

860 56 6DYLJQ\

56 6DYLJQ\

56 2URQ OH&KkWHO

56 /HV %DUDWWHV

56 3URJHQV

56 %RLV GX 5LH]

56 )RUrW GHOD -RX[

:HLG $X /DYLDX -RQJQ\

:HLG /D*LVHWWD

:HLG -RQJQ\

:HLG /D&RQYHUVLRQ

:HLG %HOPRQW

:HLG 5RFKHWWHV

:HLG 0LQHGH 3URJHQV

:HLG 0LQH GH %UHPRQW

:HLG 7DERULQ

:HLG 0LQH GH 6W0DUWLQ

:HLG 0RXOLQ 0RQRG

:HLG -RQJQ\

:HLG 3RQW $5 1 VXU 9HYH\VH

:HLG &UDX&RXOHW 1

:HLG $5 1 NP

:HLG 7XQQHOGH %HOPRQW $5 1

:HLG 7XQQHOGH %HOPRQW $5 1

:HLG 7XQQHOGH %HOPRQW $5 1

:HLG /HV %U€OpHV

:HLG 7DYHUQHV &RXGHGH OD%UR\H

:HLG /D%LRUGH

:HLG 0LQH GHOD&RQYHUVLRQ

:HLG 0LQH GH 0DUDFRQ

:HLG 0LQH G2URQ

:HLG 0LQH GH &KDWWLOHQV

:HLGO22 5XLVVGH 6W$PRXU

:HLG &UrW 5RXJH

:HLGO /HV&KDUERQQLqUHV

:HLG 3DULPERW

2URQ 9'

2URQ

2URQ

/HV7KLROH\UHV

3ODWHDX

0RODVVH

860 :HLGO )ORQ 0RUDQG

:HLG 7DOHQW

:HLG 7DOHQW

:HLG 7DOHQW

:HLG 5XLVVGH 9LOODU]HO 0RXOLQ GHV$QHV

7DEOH 9LWULQLWH UHIOHFWDQFH GDWD IRU WKH 6ZLVV 0RODVVH EDVLQ 5Uææ GHYLDWLRQ 1 QXPEHURIPHDVXUHPHQWV6ZLVVFRRUGLQDWHV XVHG

PHDQ YLWULQLWH UHIOHFWDQFH 6 VWDQGDUG

(7)

1R /RFDWLRQ ;;RRUG <&RRUG 5U 6 1

:HLG 6DXY DEHOLQ

:HLG 3ULOO\

:HLG %RLV 0HUPHW

:HLG 0DOOH\

:HLG 5HQHQV

:HLG 3ODFHGX7XQQHOj/DXVDQQH

:HLG 3ODFH &KDXGURQj/DXVDQQH

:HLG 3ODFH &KDXGURQj/DXVDQQH

:HLG /D%RUGH

:HLG 5RYHUpD]

:HLG 9HQQH $5

:HLG $UULVVRXOHV

:HLG 5XLVVGHOD&URL[

:HLG %RWWHQV

:HLG &XDUQ\

:HLG /D0HQWXH

:HLG %DYRLV$5 1

:HLG %DYRLV

:HLG 7DOHQW

:HLG &KDQGHODU)ORQ 0RUDQG

200 56 )ORQGH&DUURXJH

56 %UR\H

56 /D 1HLULJXH

:HLG 5XLVVHDXGH0DQORXG

:HLG )ORQ 0RUDQG

:HLG /H)ORQ

:HLG 5XLVVHDX GHV/RVLDUGHV /DXVDQQH

:HLG 5LDX*UHVLQ SW

:HLG 5XLVVHDX GH /DYDX[0RUDWWHO SW

:HLG 5XLVVHDXGH3ODQFKH5RJXLQ

:HLG /D1HLULJXH

:HLG /D *ODQHVXU&KkWHO

:HLG 5XLVVHDXGH 6HLJQHX[SUqV &DQWRQV

:HLG 5XLVVHDX GH &RODQV

:HLG /D *ODQH 0RXOLQ GH &KpQHQV

:HLG 5XLVVHDX GH 7UH\

:HLG 5XLVVHDXGHV9DX[

:HLG /D7UpPHXOH

:HLG &KHPLQ6HLJQHX[ /HV *UDQJHV

:HLG /D &HUMDXOH VRXV2Q]H0DOOHV

:HLG /D &HUMDXOH VRXV OHV (QYHUV

:HLG /H 5HFRXOHW SW 3LVVHYDFKH

:HLG /H 5HFRXOHW SW

:HLG 5XLVVGHOD &KDVVH /XFHQV

:HLG 5XLVV GH9LOOHQHXYH

:HLGO *UDQG 0RQW

:HLG 0RQWHQDLOOHV

:HLG 6FLHULH GH &URLVHWWHV

:HLG /H )ORQSUqV(SDOLQJHV

:HLG /H)ORQ

:HLG /H)ORQ

(8)

1R /RFDWLRQ ;;RRUG <&RRUG 5U 6 1

:HLG &HQWUDOH /XFHQV

:HLG /H )ORQ]HO7RXU GH6W 0DUWLQ

:HLG /H 0DXVVRQ *UDQJHWWHV

:HLG /H )ORQ]HO /D6FLH

:HLG 7RXUGH OD 0ROLqUH

:HLG &DUULqUH GX 'p]DOH\ 6HLU\

($67(51 6:,7=(5/$1' 6XEDOSLQH 0RODVVH

860 56 0KOHEDFKWREHO *UHLW

:HLG 7HXIHQ

:HLG %UlXQ:DQQH

3ODWHDX

0RODVVH

860 56 8]QDEHUJ

56 1HXKVOHU7REHW

56 =XJ

200 56 (FKHOWVVFKZLO

56 &XUWL EHUJ

56 0lJHQZLO

56 5lQJJORFK

56 +DQHQEHUJ

56 0lJHQZLO

56 :UHQORV

260 56 2EHU7lJHUQDX

56 %UXHGHUZDOG

56 %lUWREHO

56 %DUWREHO

56 /HLDFKHUWREHO

56 /HLDFKHUWREHO

56 &KOLK|UQOL

56 &KOLK|UQOL

56 )LVFKEDFK

56 %UXQQHQWREHO

56 .\EXUJ

56 1HXKHLP

56D $HXJVW D $OELV

56E $HXJVW D $OELV

56 6FKZL]HUWREHO

56 .lSIQDFK 6WROOHQHLQJDQJ

56 .DSIQDFK

56 %UWWHQ

56 %DDU

56D 3IHIIHUEHUJ

56E 3IHIIHUEHUJ

(9)

NP

)2/'(' -85$

? A

?I

2

2

A

$

2

RVD

ƒR!ƒ©

ƒ

2

ƒƒ

2 R 22

ƒRR

2

“

?26

ƒ$?

LR

2V

-

2V 2V Î

I"--

Î Î BB h$ BB

2 \I6!A.

h$ h$

AAA

\\

,=2AA

²

ƒ

/2 Dƒ6A $ƒ

N!R…/2 /2 DD 66

A7AH

0

$

$ A

?

/DNH RW *HQHYD

?w

ƒ ?!

Aƒ ??

A

Y?Y

1!

2

22

GO WI

D3 G G

!

©©

WIu

A J AY1OA

WW

VA YA Y1 Y1 A

2 200

$ 860 R 9LWULQLWH 5HIOHFWDQFH5U

$

$

$

$

R\

B

B

)LJ 6LPSOLILHG WHFWRQLF PDS RI:HVWHUQ 6ZLW]HUODQG *URV'H9DXG ZLWKPHDQ YLWULQLWH UHIOHFWDQFH YDOXHV IURP VXUIDFH VDPSOHV LQ WKH 0RODVVH EDVLQ

7KH WKHUPDO

PDWXULW\ RI

WKH FRDO VDPSOHV YDULHV DOVR JHRJUDSKLFDOO\

,Q

RUGHU WR UHSUHVHQW WKLV

YDULDWLRQ

UHIOHFWDQFH YDOXHV ZHUHPDSSHG DQG LVRUHILHFWDQFHFRQWRXUVZHUH FDOFXODWHG E\ NULJLQJ 7KHOLPLWHGQXPEHU DQG XQHYHQ

GLVWULEXWLRQ RI

VDPSOHV GRHV QRW HQDEOH D XQLTXH LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ 7KH FKRVHQ UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ QHYHUWKHOHVV VKRZV WKH JHQHUDO

WUHQGV DQG VRPH LQWHUHVWLQJ DQRPDOLHV

*URV'H9DXG )LJV DQG

7KH LVRUHILHFWDQFH OLQHV LQ WKH VRXWKHUQ SDUW

RI

WKLV DUHD LQGLFDWH DQ LQFUHDVH LQ

PDWXULW\ RI

WKHRUJDQLF PDWWHU WRZDUGV WKH$OSV 7KLVWUHQG SUHGRPLQDQWO\RFFXUVLQ WKH 6XEDOSLQH 0RODVVH

QRUWK RI

/DNH *HQHYD

,Q

WKH 3ODWHDX 0RODVVH YDULDWLRQV LQ

YLWULQLWH

UHIOHFWDQFH DUH UDWKHU VSRUDGLF 7KH PRVW VWULNLQJ IHDWXUHV DUH WZR OLPLWHG UHJLRQV

ZLWK

UHODWLYHO\ KLJK

PDWXULW\

OHYHOV

5U !

2QH ]RQH LV VLWXDWHG MXVW VRXWK

RI

/DNH 1HXFKkWHO

,W

LVLQWHUHVWLQJ WR QRWHWKDWWKHWKUHH DQDO\]HG VDPSOHVLQ WKLVUHJLRQ DUHO\LQJ DORQJ WKH 3RP\&XDUQ\ WKUXVW 3&

LQ

)LJ $QRWKHU DUHD

RI

LQFUHDVHG WKHUPDO PDWXULW\

LV VLWXDWHG DERXW

NP

VRXWKHDVW

RI

/DNH 1HXFKkWHO LQ WKH /D %UR\H YDOOH\ ZKHUH YDOXHV

RI

XS WR

5U

ZHUH PHDVXUHG $JDLQ D PDMRU WKUXVW 6DUHQV/HV*UDQJHV 6/* LQ )LJ LV ORFDWHG FORVH WR WKLV ]RQH

(10)

)2/'(' -85$

&=Aa()()\

, NP

A

%&& /*

3&

5% 9!

A

(3

9 (6

\

0 2

WI A

R? ‡

R

WI

!…!

A WW

A ?A AA

200 860

/DNHRI*HQHYD

LVRUHIOHFWDQFH OLQH 5U

)LJ ,VRUHILHFWDQFH PDSRI:HVWHUQ6ZLW]HUODQG ,QWHUSUHWDWLRQ RIPHDQYLWULQLWH UHIOHFWDQFH YDOXHV E\NULJLQJ 7KH LVRUHILHFWDQFH OLQHV LQGLFDWH DQ LQFUHDVH LQ PDWXULW\ RIRUJDQLF PDWWHU WRZDUGV WKH $OSV 7KHUH DUH KRZHYHU ]RQHVRILQFUHDVHG WKHUPDOPDWXULW\ 5U ! LQ WKH 3ODWHDX 0RODVVH 7HFWRQLF VWUXFWXUHVDUH PRGLILHG IURP -RUGL %&& %DXOPHV&KDPEORQ&KHYUHVV\ WKUXVW (6 (VVHUWLQHV IDXOW (3 (SHQGHV IDXOW 0 0HQWXH WKUXVW 3& 3RP\&XDUQ\ WKUXVW 5% 5DQFHV%DXOPHV IDXOW 6 /D 6DUUD] IDXOW 6/* 6DUHQV/HV*UDQJHV WKUXVW

(DVWHUQ 6ZLW]HUODQG )LJV DQG

'HVSLWH D OLPLWHG QXPEHU

RI

VDPSOHV LQ WKLV DUHD VRPH JHQHUDO WUHQGV DUH FOHDUO\

REVHUYHG ,VRUHILHFWDQFHOLQHVVKRZ D JHQHUDOLQFUHDVH LQ WKHUPDO

PDWXUDWLRQ

WRZDUGV WKH

$OSLQH IURQW 7KLV SDWWHUQ LV GLVWXUEHG E\ DQ DUHD

RI

LQFUHDVHG

YLWULQLWH

UHIOHFWDQFH UXQQLQJ SDUDOOHO WR /DNH =ULFK 6DPSOHV

IURP

WKH GLVWDO

SDUW RI

WKH 3ODWHDX 0RODVVH EHWZHHQ WKH HDVWHUQ WHUPLQDWLRQ

RIWKH

IROGHG -XUDDQG =ULFK GLVSOD\ VXUSULVLQJO\ KLJK

PDWXULW\ YDOXHV

5U

7KHUPDO PRGHOOLQJ

D 7KHRUHWLFDO &RQVLGHUDWLRQV

9LWULQLWH

UHIOHFWDQFH LV D ZLGHO\ XVHG LQGLFDWRU

RI

WKHUPDO

PDWXULW\

LQ RLO DQG JDV

H[SORUDWLRQ 7LVVRW HWDO 7LVVRW :HOWH DQG UHJDUGHG DV WKH PRVW UHOLDEOH DQG SUHFLVH PHWKRG

IRU

TXDQWLI\LQJ RUJDQLF GLDJHQHVLV %XVWLQ HW DO

,W

LV UHFRJ

(11)

%/$&

)25(

3/$7($8 -85$ Ì1]

AA

3/$7($802/$66(

5RPDQVKRUQ

24

)2/'('

-85$

ª &

Aªª

=€QFK

Y!

æ

©

AA

æ

6

9

æ

260

2

ææ

200

$ 860 /X]HUQ

U

NP

,

R

2 9LWULQLWH 5H+HFWDQFH 5U

)LJ 6LPSOLILHGWHFWRQLF PDSRI(DVWHUQ6ZLW]HUODQG ZLWKPHDQYLWULQLWHUHIOHFWDQFH YDOXHVIURPVXUIDFH VDPSOHV LQ WKH 0RODVVH EDVLQ

3/$7($8 )!

<

©

-85$

%/$&L\

)25(67" 3/$7($8 02/$66(

5RPDQVKRUQ

=XQ

2A

)2/'(' -85$

1SE9

F"

/X]HUQ

A

WI ©ª

æ

260

2

ææ

200

$ 860 NP

,

LVRUHILHFWDQFH OLQH 5U

)LJ ,VRUHILHFWDQFH PDSRI(DVWHUQ6ZLW]HUODQG ,QWHUSUHWDWLRQ RIPHDQ YLWULQLWHUHIOHFWDQFH YDOXHV E\ NULJLQJ 7KH LVRUHILHFWDQFH OLQHV LQGLFDWH DQ LQFUHDVH LQPDWXUDWLRQRIRUJDQLFPDWWHU WRZDUGVWKH$OSV $]RQHRILQFUHDVHG WKHUPDO PDWXULW\ UXQQLQJ SDUDOOHO WR WKH /DNH RI=ULFK GLVWXUEVWKLV VLPSOH SDWWHUQ

QL]HG WKDW WKH UDQN

RI

FRDO QRUPDOO\ GHILQHG E\

YLWULQLWH

UHIOHFWDQFH LV PDLQO\D IXQFWLRQ

RI

WHPSHUDWXUH DQG WLPH .DUZHLO 7KHUHIRUH

YLWULQLWH

UHIOHFWDQFH DQG RWKHU

PDWXUDWLRQ LQGLFHV

RI

RUJDQLF PDWWHU &DUERQ 3UHIHUHQFH ,QGH[ &3, 7KHUPDO

$OWHUDWLRQ

,QGH[

7$,

FDQQRWEHGLUHFWO\FRQYHUWHG WR SDOHRWHPSHUDWXUH

$OO

LQGLFHV

RI

RUJDQLF

(12)

GLDJHQHVLV DUH D IXQFWLRQ

RI

WKH WKHUPDO KLVWRU\ WKURXJK UDWKHU FRPSOH[ NLQHWLFV ZKLFK DUH IUHTXHQWO\ LQIOXHQFHG E\ WKH W\SH

RI

RUJDQLF PDWWHU 7LVVRW HW DO

$

SRSXODUDQG VLPSOH DSSURDFK

IRU

TXDQWLI\LQJ RUJDQLFGLDJHQHVLV ZDV GHYHORSHG E\

/RSDWLQ 7KLV PHWKRG FDOFXODWHV D PDWXUDWLRQ SDUDPHWHUE\ WKH LQWHJUDWLRQ

RIWKH

HQWLUHWLPHWHPSHUDWXUHKLVWRU\

RI

D VWUDWXPDVVXPLQJ WKDWLQFUHDVLQJWKH WHPSHUDWXUH E\

ƒ& GRXEOHV WKH PDWXUDWLRQ UHDFWLRQ UDWH

$

PRGLILHG YHUVLRQ

RI

/RSDWLQV PHWKRG ZKLFKFRUUHODWHVDFDOFXODWHGPDWXUDWLRQSDUDPHWHU

77,

WHPSHUDWXUH WLPHLQGH[

ZLWK YLWULQLWH

UHIOHFWDQFH ZDV SXEOLVKHG E\ :DSOHV 7KHVH DSSURDFKHV KDYH EHHQ

FULWLFL]HGEHFDXVHWKHHIIHFW

RI

WKH

GXUDWLRQ RI

KHDWLQJ RQ WKH WKHUPDOPDWXUDWLRQ

RI

VHGLPHQWDU\

RUJDQLFPDWWHU VHHPVOLPLWHG %DUNHU 3ULFH $FFRUGLQJ WR %DUNHU RUJDQLFPDWWHUVWDELOL]HV

ZLWK

UHVSHFWWR WHPSHUDWXUHDIWHUDERXW WR \HDUV

LQ

EXULDO GLDJHQHVLV \HDUV LQ JHRWKHUPDO V\VWHPV DQG DERXW

WR ƒ \HDUV LQ FRQWDFW PHWDPRUSKLVP E\ LQWUXVLYH VKHHWV 7KH DVVXPSWLRQ WKDW WKH UDWH

RI

PDWXUDWLRQ GRXEOHV HYHU\ ƒ& LV FRQVLGHUHG WR EH LQDFFXUDWH %XUQKDP 6ZHHQH\

:LWK

WKH DFWXDO DFWLYDWLRQHQHUJLHV

RI

NHURJHQ WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ UHDFWLRQV

NFDOPROH GRXEOLQJWKH UHDFWLRQ WLPH LV HTXLYDOHQW WR D WHPSHUDWXUH LQFUHDVH

RI

ƒ& 7LVVRW

HWDO

$FFRUGLQJO\ WKH /RSDWLQ:DSOHV FDOFXODWLRQV WHQG WR XQGHUHVWLPDWH WKHUPDO

PDWXULW\

DW KLJK KHDWLQJ UDWHV UDSLG EXULDO DQG RYHUHVWLPDWH

LW

DW ORZ KHDWLQJ UDWHV :RRG 0RUH UHFHQWO\ WKH GHYHORSPHQW

RI

NLQHWLF PRGHOV

IRU YLWULQLWH

UHIOHFWDQFH HYROXWLRQ EDVHG RQ YLDEOH FKHPLFDO SULQFLSOHV SURYLGH QHZ WRROV

IRU

WKHUPDO PRGHOOLQJ 6ZHHQH\

6ZHHQH\ %XUQKDP /DUWHU 7KHVHPRGHOV DUH EDVHG RQ WKH FODVVLFDO IRUPXODWLRQ

RI

ILUVWRUGHU NLQHWLFV ZKLFK DUH DOVR DSSOLFDEOH WR WKH GHJUDGDWLRQ

RI

NHURJHQ

$Q LPSRUWDQW

DVSHFW LV WKH FRQVLGHUDWLRQ

RI

VHYHUDO SDUDOOHO UHDFWLRQV ZKLFK DFFRXQWV

IRU

WKHGLYHUVLW\

RI

FRPSRVLWLRQ DQG

GLVWULEXWLRQ RI

FKHPLFDO ERQG W\SHV LQ WKH RULJLQDO NHURJHQ 7LVVRW HW DO

E 0RGHOOLQJ 6WUDWHJ\

)RU WKH UHFRQVWUXFWLRQ

RI

WKH WKHUPDO KLVWRU\ DQ LWHUDWLRQ SURFHVV LV XVHG 7KH FRPELQDWLRQ

RI

WKH VWUXFWXUDO KLVWRU\ EXULDO YV WLPH DQG D ILUVW VLPSOLILHG WKHUPDO KLVWRU\ JHRWKHUPDO JUDGLHQW YV WLPH UHVXOWV LQ D WHPSHUDWXUH KLVWRU\ %\PDWKHPDWLFDO PRGHOOLQJ WKH HYROXWLRQ

RI

NHURJHQ DQG UHODWHG

PDWXULW\

LQGLFHV FDQ EH REWDLQHG 7KH FRPSDULVRQ

RI

PRGHOOHG DQGPHDVXUHG PDWXULW\LQGLFHVDOORZV WR DGMXVWSURJUHVVLYHO\ WKH SDUDPHWHUV ZKLFK GHWHUPLQH WKH WKHUPDO KLVWRU\

7KHUH LV JURZLQJHYLGHQFH WKDW WKH SDOHRJHRWKHUPDO UHJLPH

RI

VHGLPHQWDU\ EDVLQV LV LQIOXHQFHG E\ WKH SDOHRJHRK\GURORJLFDO FRQGLWLRQV %HFN

HWDO

2OLYHU 7KH WKHUPDO UHJLPH

RI

DVHGLPHQWDU\ EDVLQ PD\EHLQIOXHQFHG E\IDFWRUVVXFK DVWKH

K\GUDXOLF

FRQGXFWLYLW\ GHQVLW\ DQG YLVFRVLW\

RI

ZDWHU EDVLQ JHRPHWU\ WRSRJUDSK\ ZDWHUWDEOH FRQILJXUDWLRQ WKHUPDOFRQGXFWLYLW\JHRWKHUPDO KHDW

IORZ

DQGFOLPDWH*DUYHQ )UHH]H 0DQ\

RI

WKHVH SDUDPHWHUV FKDQJH LQ WLPH DQG VSDFH DQG REYLRXVO\ KHDW

IORZ

YDOXHV DQGRU JHRWKHUPDO JUDGLHQWV

ZLOO

EH GLUHFWO\ DIIHFWHG E\ WKHVH YDULDWLRQV

7ZRGLIIHUHQW DSSURDFKHVDUH FKRVHQ

IRU

WKLV VWXG\ 7KH

EXULDO

KLVWRU\DSSURDFK

DVVXPHVWKDW WKHWHPSHUDWXUH KLVWRU\

RI

D

IRUPDWLRQ

PDLQO\GHSHQGV RQWKH

EXULDO

GHSWK

7KH WKHUPDOFRQGLWLRQVDUHJRYHUQHG E\FRQVWDQW UHODWLYHO\ ORZJHRWKHUPDOJUDGLHQWV DQG ORZKHDWIORZYDOXHV 7KHUHLV DVORZLQFUHDVHLQ WHPSHUDWXUHGXULQJ EXULDO DQGDGHFUHDVH GXULQJHURVLRQ 7KH JHRK\GURORJLFDODSSURDFK LVEDVHGRQDPRGLILHGEXULDO KLVWRU\

(13)

7KLV DSSURDFK DVVXPHV YDU\LQJ JHRWKHUPDO JUDGLHQWV ERWK LQ WLPH DQG GHSWK GXH WR FKDQJLQJSDOHRJHRK\GURORJLFDO FRQGLWLRQV 5DSLG FKDQJHV LQ WHPSHUDWXUH

IRU

VKRUW WLPH SHULRGV FRXOG EH H[SHFWHG

ZLWK

DQ

LQIOX[ RI

KRW RU FROG ZDWHU

F

%XULDO

+LVWRU\ $SSURDFK

7KH

($6<

5RPRGHO

RI

6ZHHQH\ %XUQKDP ZDV XVHG

IRU

WKLV VWXG\ 7KLV PRGHO XVHV DQ $UUKHQLXV ILUVWRUGHU SDUDOOHO UHDFWLRQ DSSURDFK

ZLWK

D

GLVWULEXWLRQ RI

DFWLYDWLRQ HQHUJ\

,W

HQDEOHV WKH FDOFXODWLRQ

RI

WKH

YLWULQLWH

PDWXUDWLRQ KLVWRU\

5U

YHUVXV WLPH

IRU

D JLYHQ WHPSHUDWXUH KLVWRU\ WHPSHUDWXUH YHUVXV WLPH DQG DSSOLHV WR YDOXHV

RI

PHDQ UDQGRP

YLWULQLWH

UHIOHFWDQFH IURP

5U

7KH PDWXUDWLRQ KLVWRU\

IRU

WZR WLPHKRUL]RQV FRUUHVSRQGLQJ WRWKH EDVH

RIWKH 860

DQG WKH

200

P\ DQG P\ LQ WKH 3ODWHDX 0RODVVH ZDV FDOFXODWHG 7KH PRGHOOHG

ILQDO

SUHVHQWGD\ YDOXHV DUH FRPSDUHG WR WKH PHDVXUHG YDOXHV

RI

RXWFURS VDPSOHV

,Q

RUGHU WR FRQVWUDLQ WKH WKHUPDO KLVWRU\ WKH

IROORZLQJ

DVVXPSWLRQV DUH PDGH

7KH PHDQ DQQXDO VXUIDFH WHPSHUDWXUH LVHVWLPDWHG DW ƒ& GXULQJ WKH 2OLJRFHQH DQG 0LRFHQH 7KLV LV D UDWKHU FRQVHUYDWLYH YDOXH DV SDO\QRORJLFDO LQYHVWLJDWLRQV +RFKXOL VXJJHVW WHPSHUDWXUHV

RI

ƒ& GXULQJ WKH 2OLJRFHQH 3UHVHQW GD\ YDOXHV DUH DW ƒ&

0D[LPXP SDOHRGHSWKV ZHUH UHDFKHG WRZDUG WKH HQG

RI

WKH PLGGOH 0LRFHQH P\

7KLVLVPDUNHG E\ WKHHQG

RI

0RODVVHVHGLPHQWDWLRQ DQG WKHVWDUW

RI XSOLIW

DQG HURVLRQ 3ILIIQHU 0XJQLHU 0HQDUG 1DHIHW DO /HPFNH 7KHVWDUW

RI

WKH

XSOLIW

KLVWRU\ LV VHW DW P\ DOWKRXJK WKUXVWLQJ DQG

XSOLIW

LQ PRUH LQWHUQDO SDUWV

RI

WKH EDVLQ 6XEDOSLQH 0RODVVH SUREDEO\ WRRNSODFH HDUOLHU %XUNKDUG

.DLNUHXWK

7KH WHPSHUDWXUH LQFUHDVH

RI

D WLPH KRUL]RQ LV RQO\ GHSHQGHQW RQ WKH EXULDO KLVWRU\

7HPSHUDWXUH KLVWRULHV

ZLWK

PD[LPXP SDOHRWHPSHUDWXUHV YDU\LQJ

IURP

WR ƒ&

DUH XVHG WR PRGHO

ILQDO

SUHVHQW GD\ PDWXUDWLRQ YDOXHV

IRU

HDFK WLPH KRUL]RQ )LJXUH VKRZV D GLDJUDP

RI

FDOFXODWHG

YLWULQLWH

UHIOHFWDQFH YDOXHV 5U YHUVXV PD[LPXP SDOHRWHPSHUDWXUHV 7PD[ 7KHSORWFOHDUO\ LQGLFDWHVWKDW WLPH

SOD\V

RQO\D

PLQRU

UROH 0HDVXUHG

YLWULQLWH

UHIOHFWDQFH YDOXHV

RI

RXWFURS VDPSOHV

LQ

WKH 3ODWHDX 0RODVVH UDQJH IURP WR 5U 0RGHOOLQJ VKRZV WKDW WKLV ZRXOG FRUUHVSRQG WR PD[LPXP

SDOHRWHPSHUDWXUHV

RI

XS WR ƒ&

:LWK

DQ DVVXPHG DYHUDJH SDOHRJHRWKHUPDO JUDGLHQW

RI

ƒ&NP SDOHRGHSWKV

RI

XS WR NP ZRXOG EH UHTXLUHG WR H[SODLQ WKHVH

YLWULQLWH

UHIOHFWDQFH

YDOXHVIURP VXUIDFHVDPSOHV 7KLVLVPXFK PRUHWKDQ H[SHFWHG

IURP

WKH RYHUOD\LQJ VWUDWLJUDSKLH FROXPQ DOPRVW HQWLUHO\ SUHVHUYHG LQ WKH HDVWHUQ SDUW

RI

WKH 6ZLVV 0RODVVH

EDVLQ 7KH WKLFNQHVV

RI

VHGLPHQWV RYHUO\LQJ DQDO\]HG RXWFURS VDPSOHV HJ

200

DQG 260 PD\ KDYH H[WHQGHG WR NP

LQ

WKH PRVW SUR[LPDO SDUW

RI

WKH EDVLQ

,Q

WKH GLVWDO SDUWV KRZHYHU WKLV RYHUEXUGHQ WKLFNQHVV GHFUHDVHV WR VRPH KXQGUHG PHWHUV

0DWWHU

HW DO

7KH ]RQH

RI

LQFUHDVHG WKHUPDO

PDWXULW\

LQ WKH /D %UR\H YDOOH\ )LJV DQG VKRZV

YLWULQLWH

UHIOHFWDQFH YDOXHV

RI

7KLV LV DQ LQFUHDVH

RI

RYHU

5U

ZKHQ FRPSDUHG WR WKH DYHUDJH YDOXHV

IURP

WKH VXUURXQGLQJ DUHD

,Q

WHUPV

RI

PD[LPXP

SDOHRWHPSHUDWXUHV DQ LQFUHDVH

RI

DERXW ƒ& LV VXJJHVWHG E\ WKHVH FDOFXODWLRQV

(14)

0RGHOSDUDPHWHUVDV XVHG IRU WKHFDOFXODWLRQRIWZR SRLQWVRIWKH 5UYV7PD[ GLDJUDP

7,0(LQP\ ES

7,0(LQP\ ES

RF &

7PD[ ƒ&

7PD[ ƒ&

ƒ& ƒ&

WLPH KRUL]RQ P\

?

Q Q

3 !V

WLPH KRUL]RQP\

7PD[PD[LPXP WHPSHUDWXUHXVHG,QWKH WLPHWHPSHUDWXUHKLVWRU\

OQƒ&

)LJ 7KHUPDO PRGHOOLQJZLWK WKH($6<5RPRGHORI6ZHHQH\ F %XUQKDP HQDEOHV WKHFDOFXODWLRQRI

PHDQ YLWULQLWHUHIOHFWDQFH YDOXHV5U GXULQJ WLPH IRUDJLYHQ VWUDWLJUDSKLH OHYHO LIWKH WLPHWHPSHUDWXUH KLVWRU\

LVNQRZQ7KH ILQDO 5UYDOXHVRIWZR GLIIHUHQW WLPH KRUL]RQV IRUFKDQJLQJWHPSHUDWXUH KLVWRULHVDUH SORWWHG RQD 5U YV 7PD[PD[LPXP SDOHRWHPSHUDWXUH IRUHDFKWHPSHUDWXUH KLVWRU\ JUDSK

G *HRK\GURORJLFDO $SSURDFK

7KLV DSSURDFK XVHV D FRQFHSWXDO IUDPHZRUN GLIIHUHQW WR WKDW XVHG LQ WKH

EXULDO

KLVWRU\ DSSURDFK

,W

LV SUREDEO\ D VSHFXODWLYH PRGHO +RZHYHU LWV DLP LV WR VKRZ WKDW WKH REVHUYHG FRDOLILFDWLRQ SDWWHUQ FRXOG EH PRGHOOHG

ZLWKRXW

WKH UHTXLUHPHQW

RI

D KLJK DPRXQW

RI

HURVLRQ LQ D JHQHUDOO\ ORZWHPSHUDWXUH UHJLPH 7KH ODWWHU LV W\SLFDO

IRU

WKH 0RODVVH EDVLQ

6LQFHRQO\ RXWFURS VDPSOHV DUH DQDO\]HG LQ WKLV VWXG\ PRGHOOLQJ UHVXOWVZRXOG KDYH WR EHFDOLEUDWHG

ZLWK

RQO\ RQHPHDVXUHG

YLWULQLWH

UHIOHFWDQFH YDOXH 7KLVLV SUREDEO\ QRW

D YHU\ UHOLDEOH DSSURDFK

)RU

WKLV UHDVRQ SXEOLVKHG

YLWULQLWH

UHIOHFWDQFH GDWD IURP WKH .VQDFKW

GULOOKROH

DUH XVHG 5\EDFK %RGPHU WR FDOLEUDWH WKH JHRK\GURORJLFDO DSSURDFK $V LQ RWKHUZHOOV

RIWKH

0RODVVH EDVLQ 7HLFKPOOHU 7HLFKPOOHU WKHUH LV D ORZ FRDOLILFDWLRQ JUDGLHQW 5PNP LQGLFDWLQJ DORZ SDOHRJHRWKHUPDO JUDGLHQW )RU WKH FRQVWUXFWLRQ

RI

WKH EXULDO KLVWRU\ FXUYHV WKH DPRXQW

RI

WKH HURGHG VHFWLRQ KDV EHHQ VHW WR D YDOXH

RI

NP 7KLV LV KLJKHU WKDQ DVVXPHG HURVLRQ HVWLPDWHV

IRU

WKLV UHJLRQ 1DHIHW DO /DXEVFKHU /HPFNH EXW ORZHUWKDQ HVWLPDWHV

RIWKH

EXULDO

KLVWRU\ DSSURDFK RU

RI

DUHFHQW VWXG\ RQURFNGHQVLW\ DQGFRPSDFWLRQ

LQ

WKH6ZLVV

(15)

GHSWK 7 &

Š

VXUIDFH JUDGLHQWEDVHRI QHDU P EHORZVXUIDFH

P

G7G]

ƒ&NP

Š

QHDU VXUIDFH

JUDGLHQW

JHQHUDO

JUDGLHQW

7ƒ&

s

DQQXDO VXUIDFH

WHPSHUDWXUH ƒ& ;

EXULDO GHSWK P

Š

EXULDO KLVWRU\

260

HURGHG

260

200

WHPSHUDWXUH KLVWRU\

IRU WLPH KRUL]RQV

‹

EDVH200

Y EDVH 260

9WRS260

PRGHOOHG YLWULQLWH UHIOHFWDQFH

V

KLVWRU\

M

EDVH200

K

\\

EDVH 260 WRS 260

\\

LQP\ ES

PRGHOOHG DQG

A 9

PHDVXUHG FRDOLILFDWLRQ

æ

PHDVXUHG 5U 5U 6=

D PRGHOOHG5U

5U = SURILOH

æ (

æ F F

WLPH LQP\ ES

YLWULQLWHUHIOHFWDQFH 5U

)LJ ,KHUPDO PRGHOOLQJ RIGDWD IURPWKH .VQDFKW ZHOO ZLWK WKH ($6< 5R PRGHO 6ZHHQH\ %XUQKDP _DQLDFRQFHSWXDO PRGHO ZKLFKWDNHVLQWRDFFRXQW K\SRWKHWLFDOHIIHFWVRIFRQYHFWLYH KHDWWUDQVSRUW JHRK\

GUROFLJLFLO DSSURDFK 7KHYDULDWLRQRIGLIIHUHQWLQSXWSDUDPHWHUV$'HQDEOHVWKHFDOFXODWLRQRIWLPHWHPSHUDWXUH

KLVWRULHV ( 8VLQJWKH ($6<5R PRGHO WKHVH WHPSHUDWXUH KLVWRULHVFDQ EHWUDQVIRUPHGLQWR PDWXULW\

KLVWRLULHV) * VKRZV WKH FRPSDULVRQ EHWZHHQ PRGHOOHG DQG PHDVXUHG FRDOLILFDWLRQ SURILOH

(16)

0RODVVH EDVLQ

.lOLQ

HW DO 7KH ODWWHU VWXG\ LQGLFDWHG YHU\ KLJK YDOXHV

RI

DERXW

NP XQDFFRXQWHG

IRU

E\ DQ\ JHRORJLFDO REVHUYDWLRQ

7KH SUHVHQW GD\ JHRWKHUPDO JUDGLHQW SDWWHUQ

RI

WKH 6ZLVV 0RODVVH EDVLQ 5\EDFK HW DO 9ROOPD\U LV FKDUDFWHUL]HG E\ D UDSLG LQFUHDVH

RI

WHPSHUDWXUH QHDU WKH VXUIDFH

ƒ&NP

P 7KLV KLJK QHDUVXUIDFH JUDGLHQW FRXOG EH GXH WR

FRQYHFWLYH KHDWWUDQVSRUW E\ JURXQGZDWHU 5\EDFK %RGPHU

$OWKRXJK

WKHUHDUH QR LQGLFDWLRQV \HW

LW

LVSUREDEOH WKDWWKHWKHUPDO JUDGLHQW DQG GHSWK

RI

WKLV ]RQHFRXOG KDYH FKDQJHG LQ WLPH DQG VSDFH 7KLV PD\ EH WKH UHVXOW

RI

D FKDQJH LQ WKH

IOXLG IORZ

SDWWHUQ LQ WKH 0RODVVH EDVLQ GXH WR

D YDULDWLRQ

RI

WKH WRSRJUDSK\

IOXLGV WHFWRQLFDOO\ H[SHOOHG IURP WKH RURJHQLF EHOW

FOLPDWLF YDULDWLRQV LQIOXHQFLQJ WKH

LQILOWUDWLRQ

UDWH

RI

UHFKDUJH DUHDV %DOGHUHU

D YDULDWLRQ

RI

WKH JURXQGZDWHULQWHUIDFH VXUIDFH VHSDUDWLQJ ORZ PLQHUDOL]HG JURXQGZDWHU

RI 1D+&W\SH

DERYH DQG VWURQJO\ PLQHUDOL]HG JURXQGZDWHU

RI

1D&OW\SH EHORZ REVHUYHG

ZLWKLQ

WKH GHHSHU DQG FHQWUDO SDUW

RI

WKH 0RODVVH EDVLQ %DOGHUHU

)LJXUH SUHVHQWV WKH LQSXWSDUDPHWHUV DQG UHVXOWLQJ WHPSHUDWXUH DV ZHOO DV

PDWXULW\

YDOXHV

RI

DVXFFHVVIXO VLPXODWLRQ 7KH PDLQ DVVXPSWLRQVDUH D GHHSHQLQJ

RI

WKH EDVH DQG

DQ LQFUHDVH LQ WKH QHDU VXUIDFH JUDGLHQW YDOXH DW WKH WLPH

RI

PD[LPXP EXULDO 7KLV YDULDWLRQ SUREDEO\ GXH WR LQFUHDVHG FRQYHFWLYH KHDW WUDQVSRUW FRXOG EH FDXVHG LQ SDUW E\ WKH KLJK UHOLHI

RI

WKH $OSV GXULQJ WKH (DUO\DQG 0LGGOH0LRFHQH

3ILIIQHU

7KH FRPELQDWLRQ

RIWKH

EXULDO KLVWRU\ )LJ

'

DQG WKH YDULDWLRQ

RIWKH

PHQWLRQHG WKHUPDO SDUDPHWHUV)LJ

$&

HQDEOHVWKH FDOFXODWLRQ

RIWKH

WHPSHUDWXUH KLVWRU\)LJ (

IRU

FHUWDLQ WLPHKRUL]RQV 8VLQJ WKH($6<5RPRGHO WKHVH WHPSHUDWXUH KLVWRULHV FDQ EH WUDQVIRUPHG

LQWR PDWXULW\

KLVWRULHV )LJ ) 7KH FRPSDULVRQ EHWZHHQ WKH PRGHOOHG DQG PHDVXUHG FRDOLILFDWLRQ SURILOH

RIWKH

.VQDFKW

GULOOKROH

)LJ * LQGLFDWHV D JRRG

ILW

,PSOLFDWLRQV

IRU

WKH SDOHRJHRWKHUPDO UHJLPH

RI

WKH 0RODVVH EDVLQ

7KHPDLQ IHDWXUHV UHVXOWLQJ IURP WKH

YLWULQLWH

UHIOHFWDQFH DQDO\VLV DQG WKHUPDO

PRGHOOLQJ FDQ EH VXPPDUL]HG DV IROORZV

L 3URQRXQFHG YDULDWLRQV DUH IRXQG LQ WKH

PDWXULW\

YDOXHV IURP RXWFURS VDPSOHV

RI

WKH 3ODWHDX 0RODVVH

5U

LL ,VRUHILHFWDQFHFRQWRXUV LQGLFDWH WKDW YDULDWLRQV LQWKHUPDOPDWXUDWLRQ PLJKW KDYH

D VWUXFWXUDO FRQWURO $UHDV

RI

LQFUHDVHG

YLWULQLWH

UHIOHFWDQFH RFFXU QHDU

IDXOW

]RQHV RU OLH SDUDOOHO WR D PDMRU WRSRJUDSKLF VWUXFWXUH /DNH =ULFK ZKLFK PD\ EH WHFWRQLFDOO\

FRQWUROOHG +DQWNH

LLL

7KHGHJUHH

RI

WKHUPDO

PDWXULW\

LQWKH 3ODWHDX 0RODVVH HVSHFLDOO\LQWKH*URV'H 9DXG DUHD DQG ZHVW

RI

/DNH =ULFK LV KLJKHU WKDQ H[SHFWHG

$

UHJLRQ

RI

ORZ WKHUPDO PDWXULW\ FDQ EH REVHUYHG HDVW

RI

/DNH =ULFK

+|UQOL

DUHD

LY

0DWXULW\ RI

RUJDQLF PDWWHU JHQHUDOO\ LQFUHDVHV WRZDUGV WKH $OSV

Y 7KHUPDO PRGHOOLQJ

RI

RXWFURS VDPSOHV LQ WKH3ODWHDX 0RODVVH UHTXLUHV PD[LPXP SDOHRWHPSHUDWXUHV

RI

DERXW DQG ƒ&

IRU

PHDVXUHG

YLWULQLWH

UHIOHFWDQFH YDOXHV

RI

DQG UHVSHFWLYHO\

Références

Documents relatifs

WR HQVXUH WKDWDOO DVSHFWV RI UHSURGXFWLYH DQG VH[XDO KHDOWK LQFOXGLQJ LQWHU DOLD PDWHUQDODQG QHRQDWDO KHDOWK DUHLQFOXGHG ZLWKLQ QDWLRQDO PRQLWRULQJ DQG UHSRUWLQJ

$IWHUVHYHUDOIHUPHQWDWLRQVWKHORVVHVRIPDVVEHWZHHQWKH EHJLQQLQJDQGWKHHQGRIWKHIHUPHQWDWLRQHYROYHLQWKHVDPH SURSRUWLRQV LQGHSHQGHQWO\ RI WKH TXDQWLW\ XVHG

They also have a cosmetic influence to the extent that the actors involved in the decision-making process may try to avoid the constraint of the fiscal referendum by splitting projects

7KH ILUVW 6$0 DQDO\VHV KDYH EHHQ SHUIRUPHG IURP WKH VXUIDFH RI WKH PROGLQJ FRPSRXQG WR WKH EDVHSODWH WRS YLHZ 7KH WKLFN PROGLQJ FRPSRXQG UHVLQ DQG ILOOHUV UHTXLUHV DQ

^4:`/ ^45`/ ^6`/ ^48` dqg vwdwh hvwlpdwlrq ri glvfuhwh0wlph v|vwhpv ^7`/ ^46`1 Frqvlvwhqf| whfkqltxhv kdyh ehhq suryhg wr lqfuhdvh wkh h!flhqf| ri lqwhuydo phwkrgv zkhq wkh qxpehu

Comparison of pressure responses at node J-8130 for all scenarios (i.e., different leak sizes at node J- 26 with different severity of transients induced at node J-44) serves

Aujourd’hui, l’Inra et le Cirad sont confrontés à des interrogations de nature éthique qui portent sur les principes permettant de guider leurs choix en matière de thèmes et