Sovereign bond spread drivers in the EU market in the aftermath of the global financial crisis

HAL Id: hal-00845660

https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00845660

Preprint submitted on 17 Jul 2013

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aftermath of the global financial crisis

Iuliana Matei, Angela Cheptea

To cite this version:

Iuliana Matei, Angela Cheptea. Sovereign bond spread drivers in the EU market in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. 2013. �hal-00845660�

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There are two main approaches to analyze the determinants of sovereign yield spreads in the recent empirical literature, both with their pros and cons (Maltritz, 2011). The first one relates both dependent and independent variables to an “anchor” country (in this paper Germany) by taking the difference between observed values for each variable and its corresponding value for the anchor country. By doing so, this approach considers that the anchor country is not completely free of default risk. The second approach accepts the “free-risk” assumption regarding the benchmark country and consequently, explains the sovereign yield spreads with respect to the “anchor country” by the observed data for the selected explaining variables. The second approach implicitly assumes that the benchmark country is risk free or that its bond yield is the safest measure for a risk-less rate. We run the estimations by assuming the second approach where German bond yield is considered as the best approximation for a free-risk interest rate. This choice is reasonably motivated by recent movements in German yields that touched zero or a negative territory near to zero. The existing literature usually analyzes the first approach and checks the robustness of the estimations by applying the latter. We take the opposite way by considering the second approach that uses the observed data for the analyzed countries and the yield differentials against Germany.

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