Assessing climate change impacts on the quantity of water in Alpine regions: Foreword to the adaptation and policy implications of the EU/FP7 “ACQWA” project

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Reference

Assessing climate change impacts on the quantity of water in Alpine regions: Foreword to the adaptation and policy implications of the

EU/FP7 “ACQWA” project

BENISTON, Martin, et al .

Abstract

This paper provides a short introduction to the special issue of ‘‘Environmental Science and Policy'' dedicated to policy issues emerging from the large integrating European ‘‘ACQWA'' project. This 5-year research project focused on upstream–downstream links related to water resources in mountains where snow and ice are a major component of the hydrological cycle – and thus extremely vulnerable to climatic change. Contributions to this special issue explore issues of governance in different socio-political contexts (Europe, Chile, Kyrgyzstan), and for environmental and economic sectors that compete for water, such as freshwater ecosystems, agriculture or energy (hydropower).

BENISTON, Martin, et al . Assessing climate change impacts on the quantity of water in Alpine regions: Foreword to the adaptation and policy implications of the EU/FP7 “ACQWA” project.

Environmental Science & Policy , 2014, vol. 43, p. 1-4

DOI : 10.1016/j.envsci.2014.01.009

Available at:

http://archive-ouverte.unige.ch/unige:34396

Disclaimer: layout of this document may differ from the published version.

Assessing climate change impacts on the quantity of water in Alpine regions: Foreword to the

adaptation and policy implications of the EU/FP7

‘‘ACQWA’’ project

Martin Beniston

, Markus Stoffel

, Margot Hill Clarvis

*, Philippe Quevauviller

aInstituteforEnvironmentalSciences,UniversityofGeneva,Switzerland

bEuropeanCommission,Brussels,Belgium

1. Introduction

This special issue is based on the policy and governance analysisoftheACQWAproject(AssessingClimateImpactson the Quantity and quality of Water; www.acqwa.ch), a 7th FrameworkProjectfundedbytheEuropeanUnion(EU).The specialissuecomprises9contributionsthatdrawuponthe workofthismajor,5-yearprojectthathasinvestigatedthe potential impacts of a changing climate on the quantity, seasonality, and quality of water originating in various mountainregions wheresnow andiceis asignificant part oftheenvironment.

In this geographical context, climate change takes on particular significancesince snow andicemeltrepresenta largestream-flow componentand avitallocalresourcefor freshwatersupply,hydropowergeneration,irrigation,tourism activities,andotherindustrialuses.Glaciersandsnowpack actasvitalnaturalstoragesystems,storingwaterassnowand ice through the wetter winter periods and releasing these provisions in the form of surface runoff during the drier summermonths.Changesinprecipitationandtemperature willthereforeimpactboththequantityandtimingofwater available across these different sectors. Changes in the frequency or intensity ofhazards (e.g., floods, glacier lake outburstfloods,rockfallsandlandslides)arealsolikelytohave article info

Articlehistory:

Received17January2014 Receivedinrevisedform 22January2014

Accepted22January2014 Availableonlinexxx

Keywords:

Climatechange Waterresources Management Governance Alps

abstract

Thispaperprovidesashortintroductiontothespecialissueof‘‘EnvironmentalScienceand Policy’’dedicatedtopolicyissuesemergingfromthelargeintegratingEuropean‘‘ACQWA’’

project. This5-yearresearch projectfocusedonupstream–downstreamlinksrelatedto waterresourcesinmountainswheresnowandiceareamajorcomponentofthehydro- logicalcycle–andthusextremelyvulnerable toclimatic change.Contributionstothis specialissue exploreissuesof governanceindifferentsocio-political contexts(Europe, Chile,Kyrgyzstan),andforenvironmentalandeconomicsectorsthatcompeteforwater, suchasfreshwaterecosystems,agricultureorenergy(hydropower).

#2014ElsevierLtd.Allrightsreserved.

*Correspondingauthor.Tel.:+41223790638.

E-mailaddress:[email protected](M.HillClarvis).

Availableonlineatwww.sciencedirect.com

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2014.01.009

arangeofsocio-economicimplicationsasshiftsintempera- tureandprecipitationwouldinevitablyaffectthealtitudeof thezero-degreeisotherm,thusinfluencingglacierandsnow melt,andenhancetherisksofslopeinstabilityeventsasthe mountaincryosphererapidlychanges.

2. Implications for policy

Mountainsarerecognizedasverysensitivephysicalenviron- mentswithlocalpopulationsthatarehighlyexposedtorapid changes in the resource base on which their economic livelihoods are dependent. Moreover, policy priorities for manymountainregionsareoftensetbydownstreamactors, leadingtotrade-offsacrossdifferentpolicycontextsthathave the potential to be further exacerbated by changes in the hydro-climaticenvironment.Whilegovernanceiswellrecog- nized as a core issue in current water resource related challenges,todatethereisstillapaucityofinformationon howadaptablewatergovernanceregimesinmountainareas couldbetohydro-climaticchangesandthesocio-economic impactsthatthesechangesimply.

Theconsequencesoftheseimpactsthereforeneedtobe taken into account in the rules, rights and policies that structurethemannerinwhichwaterresourcesaremanaged acrossitsmultiplesuses,aswellasthemethodsforprotecting societyfromhydro-climaticrelatedhazards.However,tradi- tionalgovernanceandmanagementapproacheshaveoften unsuccessfully coped with current internal or stochastic climatevariability. Practitioners and scholarstherefore not onlyneedtoaddresscurrentrulesandpracticesformanaging historicalchallenges within thecurrent envelopeofuncer- tainty,butalsotoassesstheadaptabilityofcurrentframe- worksformanagingwaterresourcesand hazardstofuture climatechangeimpacts.

In addition to the challenges of communicating and adaptingtodifferentscalesofclimaterelatedchallenge(i.e., internalorstochasticvariabilityversusincreaseduncertainty andvariabilityfromclimatechangeimpacts),waterresources governanceandmanagementadaptationmustalsodealwith a number of other scale based challenges. These include:

trade-offsacrossriskresponsewhenshorttermadaptation actions potentiallyundermininglong termsocial-ecological resilience(Adgeretal.,2009;HillandEngle,2013);balancing outproactiveandreactiveresponses,aswellasresponsesto multipleformsofstressatdifferentmagnitudesofphysical change and scales of governance (Hill, 2013a); trade-offs betweennarrowlydefinedadaptationpoliciesandotherpolicy frameworks and economic sectors. Cross-scale and sector trade-offs need to be better understood in the process of developing adaptation and broader environmental policy, plansandprojectsthataddresstheimpactsofclimatechange (Adger et al., 2009; Hill and Engle, 2013). Furthermore, downscaling climate and socio-economic impacts to finer temporalandspatialscalescangivedecisionmakersaclearer viewofhowthesetensionsmightplayoutinafutureclimate, andthereforeallowthemtobetterprepareforandrespondto them.

AttheEuropeanlevel,whileEuropeanclimatechangeand adaptationpolicy isstillinitsinfancy, reflectionofhowto

accountforclimatechangeimpactsishappeninginrelationto the Floods Directive and the next round of River Basin Management Planning for 2015 according to the Water FrameworkDirective(EuropeanCommission,2009).InSwit- zerland,acomprehensiveclimatechangeadaptationpolicyis in early development at the federal level. However, water resources use and managementtranscendsmultiplepolicy frameworks,andunderlyingtrade-offsacrossdifferentpolicy frameworksandsectorsmuststillbebetteraccountedforand remediated as we move into an era of potentially less manageablepressuresfromthehydroclimaticenvironment.

3. Translating science to policy

Notonlyarethedrivingforcesofclimatehighlyuncertain,but fundamentalscientificknowledgegapslimitthereliabilityof modelprojections(Hallegatte,2009)withuncertaintiesinhow climaticandnon-climaticpressureswillinteractondifferent aspects of hydrology and ecology (Wilby et al., 2010).

Traditional decision making tools, watermanagement and infrastructurehave howevertendednottobedevelopedto takeaccountofthebroaderlevelsofuncertaintyproducedby climatechangeprojections(Hallegatte,2009).Despitescien- tificeffortsfocussedonthereductionofuncertainty,through enhanced data collection and modelling (Schneider and Kuntz-Duriseti,2002),theuncertaintysurroundingthespeci- ficityofclimatechangeimpactsremainsamajorchallengeto planningandmanagingforfuturehydro-climaticconditions.

However,policymakers,decisionmakersandwatermanagers areincreasinglyrecognizingtheneedtodevelopbettertoolsto manageandcopewithbothexistingandincreasinglevelsof uncertainty from climate variability and climate change impacts(Hallegatte,2009).

While in many areas better managing for current and futurelevelsofuncertaintyiskey,effectivemonitoringand dataprovisionremainsacriticalcomponenttoremediating challengesrelatingtothecurrentlackofknowledgeanddata on hydro-climatic, other environmental criteria and usage particularlyinnationsthataremostatriskwiththeleastdata infrastructure.Thisisandshouldremainacorecomponentof theon-goingworkonclimateservices,WMOstandardsand datasharingatinternationalaswellasnationallevels.While thisisvitalindevelopingcountries,wealthiernationsshould notceasetocontinuetomaintainandwherepossibleimprove theirownmonitoringanddatainfrastructure.

Thegrowingbodyofworkonclimatechangeandclimate changeimpactprojections,adaptationandadaptivecapacity havedevelopedabroadsetofprinciples,determinantsand indicatorsforadaptivegovernanceandmanagementofwater resources.However,thereremainsaneedforclearerguidance onpracticablemechanismsandactionsatdifferentlevelsof policy making, institutions and water management. This couldhelpbetterguidetheconcretechangesthatneedtobe madeingovernanceandmanagementframeworkstoimprove theirsustainabilityandadaptability.Oftentherehasbeentoo muchfocusonthetechnologicalaspectsofwaterresources managementandadaptationandnotenoughonthegovern- ance and social infrastructural aspects of water systems (Adgeretal.,2009;Hill,2013b).

environmentalscience &policy xxx (2014) xxx–xxx

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4. The special issue

Thisspecialissueresultsfromresearchthathastakenplace overthe5yearcourseoftheACQWAproject(October2008–

September2013).Thestudiespresentedhavealldrawnonthe corescientificfindingsonclimatechangeimpactsfromthe physicalscienceoutputsoftheACQWAprojectasastarting point to explore the adaptation related challenges and solutionswithinandacrosstheACQWAcaseareas.Asecond specialissue focusingon the physical aspectsof changing waterresourcesasinvestigatedduringtheACQWAprojectcan help complement the issues discussed here (Beniston and Stoffel,2014).

ACQWAutilizedadvancedmodellingtechniquestoquan- tifythe influenceofclimaticchangeonthemajordetermi- nantsofriverdischargeatvarioustimeandspacescales,and analyzetheirimpactonsocietyandeconomy.Themainfocus wastodevelopcontinuoustransientscenariosfromthe1960s upto2050.Byfocussingondevelopingscenariosofchangeup to2050forasetofriverbasins,theprojectaimstodevelop climate information downscaled to temporal and spatial scalesthataremoreusefultothechallengesdecisionmakers face(Benistonetal.,2011).Thisshortenedmodellinghorizon allowsforamorerealisticassessmentofthepotentialimpact onthegovernanceandsocio-economicsystemcomponents.

Concurrently,challengesarisingfromexistingpressuresin the policy context need to be better accounted for and remediated as we move into an era of less manageable pressuresfromthehydro climatic environment.Therefore, thisspecialissueaimstodevelopabetterunderstandingof how climate change impacts may impact existing policy issues,aswellasmakesuggestionsfordevelopingpolicyto avoidtheexacerbationofmultiplepressurepoints.

Articlesinthisspecialissuethereforeassesssomeofthe key socio-economic impacts (hydropower, agriculture, and tourism)ofchanginghydro-climaticconditionsintheACQWA caseareas:UpperRhoneBasin,Switzerland;PoBasin,Italy;

AconcaguaBasin, Chile;Syr DaryaBasin,Kyrgyzstan; Cuyo Basin,Argentina.Furthermore,thearticlesseektoidentifythe particular challenges that arise fromthese climatechange impacts for governance and institutional frameworks. By doingso,thespecialissueidentifieslessonslearntforpolicy makers and water managers as well as applicable policy optionsforclimatechangeadaptation.

Thefirstpaper (Hillet al., inthisissue-a) comparesthe currentpolicyandlegislativeframeworksfordifferentaspects ofwaterresourcesmanagementtotheprojectedimpactsof climatechangeonthehydrologyoftheupperRhonebasin,in ordertoexaminetheappropriatenessofthecurrentapproach for responding to a changing climatic context. Significant uncertaintiespose numerouschallenges inthe governance context.Thestudydrawsonadaptivegovernanceprinciples, toproposepolicyactionsacrossdifferentscalesofgovernance to better manage baseline variability as well as more

‘unpredictable’uncertaintyfromclimatechangeimpacts.

Threefollow-onpapersfocusuponwaterresourceavail- abilityintotallydifferentgeographicalandpoliticalcontextsto Europe,namelytheproblemsencounteredforriversoriginating intheArgentinianAndesclosetoMendoza(Gironetal.,inthis

issue),theAconcaguaBasininChile(Hilletal.,inthisissue-b), andintheCentralAsianrepublicofKyrgyzstan(Sorgetal.,in thisissue).Chilerepresentsahighlycontrastingsituationtothe European basins, from both a physical and a governance perspective.InChile,waterrightsareamarketablecommodity with minimal environmental regulation and no sectorial prioritisation.Governmentinstitutionsarehighlycentralized, with limited agencyandcapacityofwater managersat the regionallevel.BothChileanandArgentineancasestudieshave experiencedincreasingdroughtperiods(fromacombinationof reducedsummerrunoff andaltering precipitationpatterns), compounding existent water governance and management challenges. Competing claims for increasingly pressurized waterresourcesacrosshydropower,agricultureandviticulture sectorsmustbebalancedwiththeprotectionofwatersupply andsanitationservicesforlocalpopulations.Multiplegovern- ancechallengesconstrictthecapacitytoadapt,includingthe lack of available, accurate, systematized and accessible information on water rights, the sustainability of water resources, climate impacts data,as well asthe constricted agencyandcapacityofregionalwatermanagerstoplanand managemultiplecompetingusesinanintegratedandflexible manner to take account of shifting hydro-climatological conditionsatthebasinlevel.

SimilarproblemsinCentralAsianstatessuchastheKyrgyz Republic arefurthermore compoundedby the difficultyfor thesestatestoapplytheprinciplesofequitableuseofwater and to agreeon abalanced reservoir management, which would allowthegenerationofenergyinwinter–benefiting upstream countriessuchasKyrgyzstan–and irrigationfor large-scale agricultureinsummer –benefiting downstream countriessuchasUzbekistan.Currentchallengesinthewater operating regime are likely to be exacerbated by climate changeimpactsaswatershortagesduringsummerbecome morefrequentwithexpecteddecreasesinsummerprecipita- tion and reducedglacialmeltwater releases duetosmaller glaciervolume.

The policy implications of hydro-climatic impacts on agriculture, hydropower and aquatic ecosystems are also addressed inthis specialissue.Bozzola etal.(inthisissue) showthat,ifmanagedefficiently,waterstoragecanbeusedas a tool to smooth variability in climatic variables and the impacts ofthis variabilityon agriculture. Thespecificcase studyofthePoriverbasinhasbeenanalyzedinthiscontext.It ischaracterizedbyheterogeneoustopographicalfeaturesand intensive wateruse inagriculture. Recentdroughtperiods, along with increasing pressureby growingpopulation and economicactivities,haveservedtohighlighttheroleplayedby stocks of water resources in dealing with fluctuations of surface watersupply.It isshown that groundwater, farm ponds,waterindamsandlakes,orotherformsofwaterstocks can be used tosmooth the increasing volatility insurface watersupply,triggeredbyhigherrainfallvariability.

Gaudardetal.(inthisissue)haveanalyzedtheparticular caseoftheMattmarkDam,intheSwissCantonofValaisand showthattheelectricitydemandisaffectedonlymodestlyby climate change. Econometric tools are used to assess the impactofclimate-inducedvariationsofwateronthewhole- salepowermarketandtoseehowchangesinthebehaviourof the electricity markets and adaptive hydropower reservoir

management can buffer the effects of changing water amounts andseasonality. Whileclimatechange willaffect hydropowerbecauseofthepossiblereductioninsurfacewater flowsandseasonalshiftsinwateravailability,technological, economicandbehaviouralchangesintheelectricitysystem are,however,expectedtoexertastrongerimpactonhydro- power.InthePoBasinofNorthernItaly,ontheotherhand, Maran et al. (in this issue) show that an increase in the variability of wateravailability mayresult in a number of impactsforenergygenerationandsupply.Inparticular,the exploitationofexistenthydropowerplantswoulddecreaseas a result ofthe increase of inactivity time (for run-of-river power plants) and the stability of the electric system (the transmissiongrid)couldbeendangeredbecauseofthegrowth intherandomnessofthesourceofhydropower.

Khamisetal.(inthisissue)showintheirpaperwhether currentconservationandadaptationprinciplesandgovern- anceframeworksforfreshwaterecosystemswouldbeappro- priateinthefaceofprojectedclimatechange.Thefocuson glaciatedwatershedsinthePyre´ne´esandtheSwissAlpshas shownthatcurrentlegislativeandpolicymechanisms,which areatthebaseofecosystemconservationapproaches,needto be reconsidered, with a proposed shift in focus from a

‘‘species-centric’’viewtoamoreholisticecosystemfunction- ingapproach.

Thefinalpaper(Hill etal., inthisissue-c)considersthe challenges that a future climate will inevitably impose to water governance paradigms. The authors show that in responsetoclimatechangeimpactsaswellasthecontinuing challengesconcerning uncertainty,resiliencedesign princi- ples(iterativity,flexibility,connectivityandsubsidiarity)are already being operationalized in certain legislative frame- works.Theseexamplesareusedtoprovidefurtherguidance andpotentiallyserveastemplatesfortheshapinganddrafting ofclimate and adaptive waterlegislation that canbalance theseissuesofflexibility,iterativitywithproceduralcertainty, as well as ensure integration across governance scales throughconnectivityandsubsidiarity.

Acknowledgments

TheEU/FP7ACQWAproject(www.acqwa.ch)wasfundedby theEuropeanCommissionfromOctober2008 toSeptember 2013underGrantNo.212250.Someofthesummarymaterial inthedescriptionofthespecialissue(precedingparagraphs)is

drawn from the ACQWAproject’s Science and Policy Brief (Benistonetal.,2013).

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