Annotated outline: the state of the demographic transition in Africa

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UNITED NATIONS

ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COUNCIL ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR AFRICA Second Meeting of the Advisory Board

on Population, Agriculture and Environment Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

24-26 October 2000

Distr.: Limited

ECA7FSSDD/AB/PAE/00/4 20 October 2000

ORIGINAL: ENGLISH

ANNOTATED OUTLINE: THE STATE OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION

IN AFRICA

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Table of Contents

1 Intoduction

2 Scope and Objectives of the Study 3 Methodology 2

4 Outline of the Study ?

5 Work Plan 4

6 Selected Countries for the Study 7 Collaborators/Consultants

8 Selected References on the Demographic Transition 7

9 Annex 1 9

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1. Introduction

The demographic transition theory postulates that generally as a result of socio-economic development, western societies evolved from populations with high mortality and fertility conditions to those with low mortality and fertility conditions. Consequently. African societies and societies in other developing and transitional economies in the world are expected to reflect some signs of the demographic transition as they make bold steps to advance on the scale or oco-economic development. Although, what happened in the Western World cannot be directly replicated in Africa or elsewhere in the world, it is expected that if the genera tenets of the demographic transition theory are assumed to apply to the region, and some available empirical evidence is carefully put together and analysed, it would be possible to identify the transition indicators applicable to the region, and use these indicators to guide policy maKing and planning in the African countries. This is particularly important as the region makes concerted effort to

bring about sustainable development.

2. Scope and Objective of the Study

The FSSDD has, therefore, decided to initiate a study of this nature in the year 2000, with an envisaged target of coming out with a major publication by the end of 2001. The study will be carried out in selected countries according to sub-regions (Eastern Africa. Middle Africa Northern Africa, Southern Africa, and Western Africa) and available indicators suggesting that the transition is or is not in motion. Economic, social, cultural and other demographic factors will

be examined to determine their mediating influence on the transition.

The study will facilitate the provision of answers to such questions as:

. Where mortality has declined, what are the factors that have led to this decline? What is the likely impact of HIV/AIDS in reversing hard won gains in life expectancy? Why ^ gains in life expectancy been so marginal in some countries even in the absence of ™V>AIDS? What is the prospect of life expectancy improvement given the emergence of the HIV/AIDb nandemic? Do we have anything to learn from other regions of the world? What are the most likely factors that will direct future policy making if the quality of life of the African woman and man has to be sustained and improved?

. Where fertility has declined, what are the factors that have led to this decline? Why have declines in fertility been non-existent or so marginal in some countries? What lessons can we draw from other countries and regions of the world? What are the prospects of future fertility decline? What factors will guide policy formulation for sustainable economic development?

• How will the expected demographic transition and related population changes facilitate

sustainable economic development?

• What wavs will be devised to encourage countries to deal with the emerging demographic realities of relatively slower population growth (due to HIV/AIDS) and the related severe distortions of age distribution and dependency ratios while at the same time defending the continuing importance of family planning for maternal and child health, basic human right, sexual and reproductive health, empowering women, and creating a balance between family

and resources?

The major objective of the study will, therefore, be to identify factors facilitating or inhibiting the demographic transition (i.e. the issues that facilitate or inhibit the transition from high to low

mortality and fertility conditions in Africa).

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3. Methodology

Ten countries have been identified for the study. Five represent the group that has expenenced some noticeable demographic transition, and fivel represent those with no or marginal transition

(with appropriate attention given to the African sub-regions).

A number of consultants have been identified from the selected countries as well as regional and sub-regional institutions to work with ECA staff members in FSSDD to implement the plan for this study The study will largely draw on published data (mainly from Censuses, WFSs and DHSs) and supplement these data with results from comparative analyses already undertaken as

well as on-going small scale studies.

4. Outline of the Study

The outline of the Study will be as follows:

PART I: GENERAL PERSPECTIVE I. Introduction:

• Population and Economic Development (the General Demographic Transition Theory)

• Pace of Population Growth in Africa

• Population Policies and the Process of Economic Development and Modernization in

Africa

II. Population Change

• Global Population Change

• Population Change in Africa

• Lessons from other Regions III Mortality Transition

• Mortality Patterns, Levels and Trends

• Mortality Transition in Africa

• Factors Contributing to Mortality Transition

• HIV/AIDS and the Reversal of the Mortality Transition

• Lessons from other Regions IV Fertility Transition

• Fertility Patterns, Levels and Trends

• Fertility Transition in Africa

• Factors Contributing to Fertility Transition

• HIV/AIDS and family planning

• Lessons from other Regions V Migration and Urbanisation

• Migration Patterns, Levels and Trends

• Urbanisation Patterns, Levels and Trends

• The Role of Migration and Urbanisation in Fertility and Mortality Transition

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The Role of Migration in Changing Age and Sex Structures The Role of Migration in Spreading HIV/AIDS

Lessons from other Regions

VI The Demographic and Socio-Economic Impacts of HIV/AIDS

• AIDS and the Age Structures

• The Socio-Economic Implications of Emerging Age and Sex Structures

• Lessons from other Regions

PART 2: SELECTED COUNTRY CASE STUDIES

For each selected country, the study will trace the transition or non-transition process by focussing on country specific experience. This will be done by taking the following aspects into

account:

I. Introduction:

• Population and Economic Development

• Pace of Population Growth in the Country

. Population Policy and the Process of Economic Development and Modernization

II. Population Change

• Population Change in the Country

• Lessons from other Countries III Mortality Transition

• Mortality Patterns, Levels and Trends

• Mortality Transition in the Country

• Factors Contributing to Mortality Transition

• Lessons from other Countries IV Fertility Transition

• Fertility Patterns, Levels and Trends

• Fertility Transition in the Country

• Factors Contributing to Fertility Transition

• Lessons from other Countries V Migration and Urbanisation

• Migration Patterns, Levels and Trends

• Urbanisation Patterns, Levels and Trends

• The Role of Migration and Urbanisation in Fertility and Mortality Transition

• The Role of Migration in Changing Age and Sex Structures

• The Role of Migration in Spreading HIV/AIDS

• Lessons from other Countries

VI The Demographic and Socio-Economic Impacts of HIV/AIDS

• AIDS and the Age Structures

• The Socio-Economic Implications of Emerging Age and Sex Structures

• Lessons from other Countries

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PART 3: WHICH WAY AFRICA?

This part will be a synthesis of Africa's experience so far, highlighting

• Socio-Economic and Cultural Factors facilitating the transition

• Socio-Economic and Cultural Factors inhibiting the transition

• Transition facilitating policies

• Accommodating HIV/AIDS in policies

• The way forward

5. Work Plan

In the year 2000, the identification of national consultants; the convening of a workshop of high level stakeholders and the resulting workshop report; and the semi-annual progress reports reflecting the initiation of activities at all levels right down to country level will be utilised to assess the progress of the study and the performance of all participants. In the year 2001 the emphasis, in terms of indicators, will be on the initial study drafts produced; the completion of reviews (including peer review); the production of final study drafts; the successful holding of a workshop and production of related workshop report of high stakeholders to review the drafts and provide professional and substantive comments; the completed chapters of the study embodying the comments (including those of high level stakeholders); and the professionally edited, printed and published book containing the different chapters of the study. The following chart gives the details of the work plan (see Annex 1 for the work plan chart).

Selection Countries for the Study

After examining information available from Censuses, World Fertility Surveys (WFSs) and Demographic and Health Surveys (DHSs), trends of Total Fertility Rates (TFRs) and Under 5 Mortality ( M ) were summarized (see Feysetan Population and Development Bulletin Paper submitted to FSSDD/ECA in 2000). Taking these trends in account, together with the Sub-regional divisions in the African continent, the following countries have been selected for the Study on the

Demographic Transition:

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CENTRAL AFRICA

Both countries experiencing no transition:

Fertility and Mortality Trends

5.8 (1988-90) 1.2 (1960-62)

126 (1988-90)

5Mo per 1000 I 192 (1978) Fertility and Mortality Trends

Central African 5.1 (1991-93

EASTERN AFRICA

5.4 (1990-92) 96 (1990-92) 142 (1975-77)

Experiencing no transition:

6.9 (1992-94) 147 (1992-5 180 (1988-89)

NORTHERN AFRICA

Egypt

Morocco

TFR

;Moper 1000

TFR

5Moper 1000

* ■—

SOUTHERN AFRICA

5.3 (1976-80) 191 (1976-80)

5.9 (1976-80) 142 (1976-80)

3.6 (1992-94) 81 (1992-94)

j.j (1992-fr 80 (1992-94)

In transition:

Zimbabwe

4.3 (1991-93 1 (1991-93) 75 (1985-87)

Experiencing no transition

6.1 (1993-95) 197 (1993-95) 191 (1989-91)

Mo per 1000 WESTERN AFRICA

4.5 (1995-97) 110 (1995-97) 7 (1979-80)

Experiencing no transition:

6.7 (1992-S 250 (1960-61)

* Not available

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It may be observed that both countries selected from Central Africa are experiencing no transition while both countries selected from Northern Africa are experiencing the transition. Overall we have ten countries for the study. Five are experiencing the transition, while five have yet to start this

transition.

Collaborators/Consultants

It is proposed that for the Central African countries, contact should be made with IFORD for

™£ZT?; w !herWestern African countries, contact should be made with RIPS for Ghana and

LfcKPOD tor Mah; for Eastern African countries, contact should be made with the Population Department, Institute of Statistics and Applied Economics (ISAE), Makerere University for Uganda and with the Population Studies and Research Institute (PRSI), University of Nairobi for Kenya- for Northern African countries, contact should be made with the Cairo Demographic Centre for both Egypt and Morocco; and for Southern Africa, contact should be made with the Department of Population Studes, University of Zambia for Zambia, and with the Department of Population Studies

University of Zimbabwe for Zimbabwe.

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Selected References on the Demographic Transition

Boserup. E. 1965. The Conditions of Agricultural Growth: The Economics of Agrarian Change under

Population Pressure. Aldine, Chicago.

Boserup, E. 1970. Women's Role in Kcnnomic Development. Allen and Unwin, London.

Bulato. R. A. 1985. Fertility and Mortality Transition: Patterns. Projections, and Interdependence. The

World Bank, Washington.

Caldwell, J. C. 1968. Population Growth and Family Change in Africa- The New Urban Elite in

Ghana. Australian National University Press, Canberra.

Caldwell, J. C. 1975. Population Growth and Socioeconomic Change in West Africa. Columbia

University Press, New York.

Caldwell, J. C. (ed) 1977. The Persistence of High Fertility: Population Prospects in the Third World.

Demography Department, Australian University, Canberra.

Caldwell. J. C. 1982. Theory of Fertility Decline. Academic Press, London.

Cleland J. and Hobcraft, J. 1985. Reproductive Charge in Developing Countries: Insights form the World Fertility Survey. Oxford University Press. New York.

Coale A J and Hoover, E. M. 1958. Population Growth and Economic Development in Low-income

" Countries: A Case Study of India's Prospects. Princeton University Press, Princeton.

Conde, J. 1971. The Demographic Transition as Applied to Tropical Africa with Special Reference to Health. Education and Economic Factors. OECD. Paris.

Cochrane, S. H. 1979. Fertility and Education: What Do We Really Know? Johns Hopkins University

Press, Baltimore.

Easterlin, R. A. and Crimmins. E. M. 1985. The Fertility Revolution: A Supply-Demand Analysis.

The University of Chicago Press, Chicago.

Freedman, R. 1975. The Sociology of Human Fertility: An Annotated Bibliography, The Population

Council. Irvington. New York.

Hawthorn, G. 1970. The Sociology of Fertility. Collier-Macmillan, London.

Hess P. N. 1988. Population Growth and Socioeconomic Progress in Less Developed Countries:

Determinants of Fertility Transition. Praeger. New York.

Hobecraft, J. and Rees. P. (ed). 1977. Regional Demographic Development. Groom Helm, London.

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Knodel J. E. 1974. The Decline of Fertility in Germany. I87i-I<no Princeton University Press, Knode! J. E. and Van de Walle, E. 1979. Lessons from the Past: Policy Implications of Historical

fertility Studies. Population and Development Review. 5:217-45.

Lesthaeghe, R. 1977. The Decline of Belgian Fertility. 1800-1Q70 Princeton University Press

Princeton. J

Larimer F. 1954. Culture and Human Fertility: A Study of the Relation of Cultural Condition, to Fertility in Non-Industrial and Transitional Societies. UNESCO. Park '

Mamdani, M. 1972. The Myth of Population Control: Family. Caste and Class in an Indian Village

Monthly Review Press, New York. ' "

- P- 1985' Ecopomic AsPects of Historical Demographic Change. The World Bank

gton. '

Preston SH. 1978. The Effects of Infant and Child Mortality on Fertility. Academic Press, New

i one.

Ruzicka L T 1977. The Economic and Social Supports of High Fertility. Demography Department,

Australian National University, Canberra.

Sauvy, A. 1969. General Theory of Population. Weidenfeld and Nicolson, London.

Stone, L. 1977. The Family, Sex and Marriage in England. 1580-1800 Weidenfeld and

Nicolson, London.

Van de Walle, E. 1974. The Female Population of France in the Nineteenth Century Princeton

University Press, Princeton. ' L'

Winegarden, C. R. 1984. Income Redistribution Versus Accelerated Economic firnwth- A Comparison of Demographic Effects. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. 46:255-71.

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Annex1:TheWorkPlanChart

COMPONENTSOFTASK

CarryingoutExploratoryDiscussionsProductionofStudyOutlineProductionofWorkPlanIdentificationofConsultants"WorkshopofHighLevelStakeholdersInitiationofCountryLevelActivitiesProductionofSemi-Annual/AnnualProjectsReportProductionofInitialChapterDraftsReviewofDraftChapters10tProductionofSecondDrafts11

1214 PresentationofDraftChapterstoaWorkshopofHighLevelStakeholdersfinalRevisionofDraftChapters 15 FinalDraftsSubmittedtoFSSDDStudyChaptersSubmittedtoPPFEDStudybookedited,translatedandpublishedDissemination