The demographic situation in Eastern Africa

UNITED NATIONS

ECONOMIC

SOCIAL COUNCIL AND

Distr. ■

20 July

Originals GLIdH

\

FC:R

Sub-'regional Meeting on Economic Co-operation-in East ^friica Lusaka5 6 - 9...October ? I965

THE .JjEMOGIuiPHIG. 5ITIMTI0E.il -SAST^RI AF

In this article3 the present demographic structures of the population of the East ^frican countries have first .been outlined.

This is followed by a study of the recent population trends and the prospects for the future.

The Eastern sub-region has been defined ..to include Ethiopia9. ...

French Somaliland^ Somalia, Uganda, Kenya9 ■ Tanzania, Rwanda9 Burundir:

Zambia 9 Malawi 9 Rhodesia 9 Madagascar 9 Comoro Islands.^ Reunion^

Mauritius*, and Seychelles* With 5i million square xilometres of land surface (which is 18#3 per ^{ent of} he" total land surface of +d£rica)j this suo-region contained 68^ million persons (or 2>1 per cent of the"

total population of ^irica) in i960, increasing at the rate of 2.1 per

cent per year.

The Eastern suo-region of ^frica is characterised by the persist tent,inadequacy of demograpi'iic statistic'ss of the countries listed

above 9 Ethiopia and Somalia9 where aioout one-third'of the total popula tion of Eastern' „Srica is estimated go reside^ have never conducted nation-wiue population enquirio s5and df't'he other areas, three or more' censuses have conducted only in the small islands of Zanzibar'a'nd'''"""""

lemba, Mauritius9 and Seychelles and only two censuses (or surveys) in Uganda," lvenya9 Tanganyika and Reunion^ the rest have had only one'"

population census (or sample survey) till now.

65-2682

Page 2

I.'"'" Demo^raphic strueture of _^he.,_.j^..g,£1jl.,

(a) To cal population ^

The total population of Eastern Africa in 1^60 is estimated at ^ 68-g- million (Table l). The large differences, in the si*e of the popula

tion in the different countries, shown in; Taol-e ,1,-, are • apparent * .... . •.

Ethiopia is the largest and the most populous country;' "with 21 per- cent of the total area? it contained 29 per cent of the total population of Eastern ^frica in I960. The other four countries with 5 ^° 1° million

persons each ares Tanzania (9*5 million), Kenya (S.I million), Uganda

(6.7 million) 9 arid Madagascar '(>4 "rnillion) s tnes^J;t6gether with

Ethiopia contain about 72 per cent of the total population of Eastern

^frica. ^t the other end ot the scale are the five areas of Mauritius

(658 thousand), Reunion (336 thousand), Comoro Islands (183 thousand),

French Somaliland (67 thousand),and Seychelles (42 thousand), which

contribute 2 per cent to the total population. In between these two groups are six countries with population ranging from 2 to 4 million, which contain the remainder 26 per cent of the East ilfrican population*.

(b) Density of population ..

.; The density of: .population in- E-astern. .xfricta? measured by the

number-of. persons; psr square kilometre pf land,: is estimated to be 12. . as compared to $■ lojr. the...whole of ^frica; population of thi.s sub- , regapn ti^ more; densely -located than the other sub-regions ,• excepting

the Western. , ■•■ ■ ■ ... ..

-* There are also great; -variations in the density .between the , ;

individual countries, within the .sub-region, .a,nd .peuwee.n the administr&-V;

tive..,unixs within each country (Taole 2). In tho small islands*

density is invariably high,; ranging from 84; in Comoro Islands: to 314 ;

in Mauritius^; excluding, the small islands-,- the highest clensity (lOl) is obtained in fiwanda? with .Burundi coming next (90)... The lowest

density of 3-4 .is^ recorded in .Somalia, French Somalilandj a.nd.^ambia..

Excluding again the -small.: .-islands, and the higii aensity of I434 in the ;l city of Dar-es-SaXaam in Tanganyika:', ^denbitiea oy^r I30 in the : .- ■ ; ..

3/CH.14/LU/JC0F/2

Page'' 3 : '"'^ "

administrative units are recorded in the territories of Usumbura (22l),

Ugo.zsi. (192),, and Muramvya (171) of Burundi, ana in the territories of

Ruhengeri (l8>)( and ^strida (172). of Rwanda: the minimum density in any administrative unit in these two countries is 37—39• **part from 1 the small islands, some parts of Rwanda and Burundi, the copper-mining

belts of Zambia, the ports .end industrial locations, there aoes not seem to be much pressure of population on land in Ecstern Africa.

1 As Eastern ^frioa.is still mainly agricultural, a more useful measure of this pressure is the density per.square kilometre of arable land. For the sub-region, this figure is 105 as compared with the avera e density of .13.4 in the whole of *,frica. **mong the individual countries, excluding the small islands, the highest number of persons

per square kilometre of arable land (47^) is recorded in ICenya,

Madagascar and Rwanda with 387 and 306 respectively coming next5' the lowestfiguP3 (ll) is obtained in Gambia. Relating the rural popula tion, only to the arable land, area and excluding the small islands, the highest number of rural persons per square kilometre of arable land

(450). is recorded in Kenya, and the next highest (353) in Madagascar;""

for Eastern ^frica, as also for Africa as a whole, the average is 100.

Climatic, cultural and historical factors, along with .depopulating and debilitating diseases like trypar-osoiiiiasis, malaria and schisto- soiaiasis have generally played an important part m the geographical distributions of the population. The wide variations of density between between and within countries present a problem- to be reckoned with in the future economic development of the•sub-region. -

(c) Age structure of the population

The sex-end age. distributions of a population are useful indicators of its manpower potential. They also provide measures, however crude, of the dependency load, consumption needs and social requirements in the present as, well as in tho. near, future•

The age data collected from the censuses and surveys in Eastern Africa,- -in common with the. other ^frican sub-regions, are known to be

Page 4

inaccurate. . In general,' however, children under 15 are estimated to constitute, about 43t5 per cent of the-total population in...Eastern ,^f rica.

This is of the same order as obtained in <other./under-developed countries.

This high proportion' of' population ;below a6e-15 iaeans: a heavy dependency load and though this load is reduced through high participation in sub sistence cultivation by young persons^ the .situation is not socially desirable. Persons in the 'working%ge ^groups of:.-JL5~59 a:re estimated to constitute 52 per cent and old persons above .60 number % per cent of the,total population of Eastern ,xfrica.. Data lor the individual coun

tries are shown in'Table 3» ; ,.

The usual rough measure' of the dependency load is: the ratio of the number of persons in the ages under 15 and. i;n the age groups 60 years and over to the total number of persons a. U3 -1/5-59 5 ;. this ratio cannot 9 however^ take the level of productivity into- account. ...In Eastern .xfrica9 there are about' nind "'persons in xhe; dependent ages for every ten persons in the working age groups-. Amon^. the countries for which comparable data are" available, the'highest-:.,dependency ratio is observed

in Comoro. Islands (105) , Reunion (99) ? and■-.Mauritius (93)? the lowest

ratio is in Madagascar where there are- four dependents to Jive persons

in the working age groups (Table 3). :•■..•...■

(d). Sex-ratio " " ' ■-■'■.i:. ' ;; i.[: - . v,-;. ;• , ■.;...-, .

;^ Tablei: .4, shows the sex-ratio (number of males per 100 females).of;

the'■ population in the rural am' urban sectors and albo sepaiacely for the African and non-^fr.ican populations. Females outnumber i7iales in Burundi (by 13 per cent), Rwanda? Comoro Islands? Tanganyika, Reunion,

Seychelles9 Malawi, Kenya9 Madagascar, and ^ambia (oy 1^- per cent)5 French' Somaliland had the highest proportion of .uales to females (ll6) 9 Rhodesia recording the nezt. highest (106).

Given a sex-ratio at birthy the sex-ratio 01 a population at,any point of time is determined by 'the differei-tial- mortality and migration of vthe males and females. . Ttie .outnumbering of males by females noted in some Eastern African countries ■•is in contrast with the observed

Page 5

higher proportion of males in other under-developed countries of Asia and Latin America, end could partly be explained by the migration of

male1 labour.

. The hijjher.net -migration of males to the urban areas and the differing roles of women in the economic life of countries at various- stages of economic development general^ determine the sex-ratio of ■ population in the urban areas. For the mainland countries for which data are available, males outnumber females' % 52 to 42 per cerffc res pectively in the urban areas of Rhodesia and Kenya! females are proportionately more than males in number in the rural areas of these countries. This is a feature common to many underdeveloped countries

in LaxsLf but not in Latin America. : - ■■■■■■- "■■■■' : -° ;

In contrast to the higher proportion of males among the African population in the urban areas of Rhodesia and^ifenya (for which data are available), the non-,.frican regulation in Rnod^iar^ambiai;^enya and

Malawi is characterized by a relatively higher number of .females in

the u»ban areas. In Rhodesia, for example, 4n.;contrast to the IS per cent-of the African population residing in urban areas;in 1961-62, the corresponding proportion for the non-.,fricant population is 77 per cent?

and in Kenya, only 5 ,sr cent of the African population; but 85 per pent of the non-iif ric£n pppalation. were in the urban sector, in 1962.

The sex-ratio of population also shows a tendency to Increase with increasing sise of'locality as in Uganda (data-no* shoxm).. This, again

is a" feature'common to the countries of ^.sia. ■•■'■■•-; ■^3 r (e) Ethnic coiir:,osition

;:---■ Qata: an the. ethnic composition of. the population.are important for understanding economic and sucial structures and income distributions.

Table 5 presents the percentage distribution of the population by

ethnic- ^ou£S.L::1I:n: Zanzibar and Femba the bulic of0:|he population-(-94-

per cen^is* coiuposed-^^^

Zanzibarsy :il^id"^siaxis; ^^-6 - per. ceat.. Indo-Iiaurxtians, .and settler?

S/CN.14/LU/iC0P/2 Page 6

of European descent and native "born of auxed origin are the two major

ethnic groups (65 and 32 per cent respectively) in Mauritius and

Rodrigues: Chinese make up the rest* Excluding the small islands, the non-African population in the East African countries ranges from 6*9 per cent in. French Somalilsnd and 5.9 per cent in Rhodesia to 0.1

per cent in Rwanda;, the maximum proportion of Europeans (Whites), 5«4 per cent, is observed in Rhodesia, and the next highest (2.1 per cent)

in Zambia, ^mong the mainland countries, the maximum proportion of Asians (2.4 per cent) is reported in Kenya; the proportion of ^sian population in other countries is 1.1 per cent Uganda and Tanganyika and •§- per cent or less in other countries.

The non-African population is mainly concentrated in the urban areas and its participation in economic activities follows a different pattern from the indigenous population.—

(f) The urban population

The relative share of the urban population and its growth•is an aspect'of the spatial distribution of population which is of importance for plans for economic and social development. To standardize defini tions in studies on urbanization,-'it is usual to consider only towns

"and cities with 20,000' and more' inhabitants} the relative share of the population in cities with 100,000-and uiore- inhabitants.among the.

total number of towns and cities with .20,^000 and more inhabitants

(including cities with 100,000 and mere inhabitants) is used as a mea

sure of the concentration of the urban population, according to the recent available da;ta? while the proportion of the total population of Africa living in towns and cities with 20,000 and more -inhabitants was 10 per cent around T950 and 13 per cent around 1960-'$ that in Eastern a arourid i960 oan be estimated at 5 P^ cent. The proportion of

■ 1/ United Mtions Economic Commission for ^rica, Bconomio and Social

ConsecLuences.of Racial Discriminatory Practicies9 3/CN>14/132/Rev*l

2/ United Nations, Population Commissions Report of the Thirteenth

Session, I965 U/^-9/202). ~

id/git. 14/lu/:£cqp/2

Page 7

persons living in cities with 100,000 and more inhabitants is estimated at 3 per cent in Eastern ^frica.; around i960, and 5 per cent around 1950 in ^frioa* Thus, of the 68g million total population of Eastern ^frica in I960, about 1-g- million live in towns of 209000 to 100,000 inhabitants and 2 million in cities of 100,000 and more inhabitants* Urbanisation in Eastern Africa is at a much lower level than in the rest of .africa taken oogither, and also lower than the other sub-regions'. ^ The con centration of the urban population in the big cities of Eastern Africa is also low, cities with "100,000 and more inhabitants claiming about

60 per cent of the population in towns and cities with 2O9OOO and more inhabitantss in other suo-regions, this proportion is estimated to range from two-thirds to four-fifths.

^tiiong the individual countries in Eastern Africa:,- excluding the small islands and territories, the iiighest proportion of population in

towns with 20,000 and more inhabitants (16.5 per cent ) is recorded in Zambia, with Rhodesia coining next (14*8 per cent).3. and the lowest!.pro

portion (1.2 per cent) is in Uganda, the maximum: proportion of popula-

tion'in the big cities with 100,000 and more inhabitantsr(l2.8. per cent) is observed in Rhodesia and the next highest.. (5*9 per cent) in Zambia.

The maxim-urn concentration of the town population in the big cities (88 per cent) occurs in Kenya, Rhodesia recording the second highest (86 per centjs this concentration is the least in Gambia (36 per cent).

The population of the capital cities and cities of 100,000 and more inhabitants in the East ^frican countries are shown in Table 7»

Only eleven cities have populations of 100,000 and more and these are located in .seven countries, via., Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Tanganyika,'

Zambia, RhodeB4-^--"^-ndr-^:a-dag^scar. *xddis ^baba (Ethiopia) has the

largest city population (448 thousand in 1961)5 Nairobi (Kenya), Salisbury (Rhodesia:), and Tananarive::.(.Madagascar) are .the. other cities

with population between 200 and 300 thousand«

Page 8

-'*. high decree of correlation seems to exist oetween industralization and urbanization-'. With planned industrial development in the East

African countries9 therefore, urbanization is also expected to increase

at a fast pace *

(g) Inter-national migration'""

Migration of labour, both i.ternal and international, has always been an important factor in many African countries. The general pattern

of migratory labour has often been described-^ In Eastern ^frica, move

ments of migrant labour from. Malawi, Rwanda and Burundi axe mainly south ward to Gambia, Rhodesia and the Republic of South Africa, while Uganda and Tanganyika attract migrant labour from other areas of Eastern ^frica.

More people from Malawi, for example, are known to work on wages in Gambia and Rhodesia than in Malawilitself. Unfortunately/ since a large part of movement is across land frontiers and at numerous points of crossing, it is difficult to keep proper records, and the present mi gration statistics are extremely incompleteo Table 8 present the avail able data on international migration in the "East -Ifirican countries, considering-orily long-term migration ran^.s from -Oil per cent of the population in Rhodesia to +0.05 per cent in Tanganyika. For reasons

stated above these data may not represent the actual volume of migration.

The change in the direction of long-term migration in Kenya, Uganda and Rhodesia may also be noted in this tablej whereas formerly long-term immigrants were more in.number than emigrants, the position has been the reverse in the recent period.

1/ United Nations, Seminar on Urban Development Policy and Planning,

Warsaw, 18-29 September 1962, General Introductory Reporto

2/ International Labour Office, African Labour Survey,, Studies

and Reports, New series, No. 4S, Geneva, 1958$ United Nations, I963 Report on the i-iorld Social Situation9 New York, 1963.

xiS/CKi 14/LU/ jGQP/2 Page '9 ■;' \VJ:

The sex-ratio ,.and age structure of .the long-term international immigrants for the different ethvJLc groups in Tanganyika, Uganda and lenya have 'been shown in Table 9. Imiaigrants are preponderantly males for each of the ethnic groups listed..- Children, under..l§:j&&jp cons titute" a much smaller proportion of the immigrants than the general population, and markedly smaller, at- least in Tanganyika and Uganda, for1 the Jjuropsaii migrants than for the others. The long-ten^ ■ immigrants ' are thus' mostly males and proportionately more in the. working age groups.

^n indication of the volume of migration of the African population is, obtained from employment registration statistics of non-indigenous African males in Rhodesia (Table 10). Such immigration reached a'peak of 3.7 per cent of the total Rhodesian population in 1934? and emigrants numbered 3*7 per cent' in I953-5S. Since the migration.-.has st.eadly been falling, immigrants and emigrants- being respectively vQv.Q per ..cent,;and 1.0 per cent of the total population in;1964. The net .■■migitati.Q.ia was the

highest (+0.35 per cent) in 1954 and the lowest (~0.35 per :cent} .in

19:59; ' these may be compared with the estimated rate of ...natural .'increase of 3.0 per cent for the indigenous .JTrican population in:;19.53r53'.* ■

Till 1958,. the male migrants were mostly from Mozambique or return- ..ing to kozambicue^ since then, migration Letweon Malawi and Rhodesia .has become numerically ^ost iiuiortant, do per cent of such imuiigrants

coming from Malawi and 55.per cent of emigrants leaving for that Country

in 1964^ ■ '

In order to reach a satisfactory understanding of the demographic, social and econoiuic implications of international migration in Eastern Africa, it would be essential to obtain more coaR.rehe'nsive migration statistics especially for the African population for all the countries of the sub-region*

1/ Rhodesia9 Migration He-pbrt fo-f March

Page 10

.r.<::.: .■■■■ -; II> Manor po-pulatioin trends and prospects, :. :.

;,..(a) Rate. of growth of. /population : .

The razees of growth of opulation of the countries of the .sub-region are shown in Table 11. Comparable rates for two periods

are available only for a few areas. The limitations on the comparison of data ...obtained, from censuses or surveys for different yeaiswith vary ing decrees of accuracy and coverage and vagaries of official estimates ere ''^ell-known, the most common limitation being the-under-enumeration of population in the previous Census or surveyor in the official estimates9 as e.g.Y in"Kenya5 Gambia:and;Rhodesia. ■ :

•■-. ^fter. adjustment has Leen made for under-enumeration and varying degrees of coverage,, a high rate of growth of population seems to be a common.feature of. many areas of the suo-regionj &and" for the countries with...data for two periods, the rate of growth of population is invan- ..$X>ly: higher during the recent period as co^ared to xae preceding one.

BxZuding the,small islands and areas (Mauritius recorded in 1952-62 the

rate of growth of 3-1 P^r cent per year), and considering only countries

with a population of' T million or more (which constitute 98-per oont.of

the total ^ast African po^ulstibn) 9 the- recent rate-- of growth is esti mated to be less tnan 2 per cant :onl- in ^triiopia and Tanza-ia, .it is between 2 and 3 per ,ent in Malawi, Uganda 9- Zambia 3 Rwanda 9

and Kenya9 and estimated to be more than 3 per cent in oo-ta

Rhodesia and Burundi.. -. ■• ,.-■.. .,- .,

"The main reason for these variations'would seem to be different

rates at which the level of uiortality Atizd been falling and the different

rates of net migration. ' ' ' ' ' ; '

The rates of growth of the "urbanH towns, and"city populations have

-been shown in Table 12 for countries with available daxa? however, the rate of growth of the "urban" , opulation has the limitation of being subject to changes in the definition of urban areas over the censuses.

The rates of growth of town and city population were lnvariablijii

irage IT'"'

than those for the total ■; opulation of the respective countries, these countries, thd. rate of growth of po., ulation in the cities

100,000 or more inhabitants is estimated to be 2g times that of the

total^population. On this basis, of the estimated increase of about

1.5 million per year in the East .Jfrican countries during I96O-65

about 120 thousand are added to these bi6 cities.

(b) Levels of-fertility and mortality

Table 13'shows for the'countries where data are available the

measures of the levels of fertility, via., the crude birth rate, the general fertility rate, and the gross reproduction rate, and Table 14

&ives the mortality measures, viz., the crude death rate, the infant

mortality rate and the life expectancy at birth., ^t the present stage of civil registration, recourse had to be taicen. to demographic sample

surveys and analytical methods to obtain .ost of these vital measures 5

time-series data are also not generally available to provide the trend,

iuaong the general, indigenous population, comparatively low birth rates are recorded in the small islands of Zanzibar, Mauritius, and

Seychelles, in the mainland countries, the rate ran es from 42/1000 in Uganda to 57 in ZamMa. The general fertility rates (number of '' births in. one year to 1000 females in the child-bearing ages of 15-49 years) are also generally high (except in the small islands), ranging

from 163 in Madagascar to 220 in Hwanda. The grcss reproduction rate

shows the number of daughters that would be born to ..a generation of

women having, at each age in the potential child-bearing period of their lives, the age-specific female birth rates observed for a given population at a ^iven time, on the assumption that none of the women

dies before reaching the limit of her potentially fertile years; it was also hi6h, ranging from 2.4 ;in Madagascar to >5 in ^tia, exclu ding the small islands. -11 these measures of fertility indicate high .

levels in the countrie of the sub-region.

,,s to the measures of mortality, excluding again tho small islands

the lowest .death:..r£te_(l4). is recorded in Rhodesia and .Rwanda, and the

PcV e 12

highest rate^of 32:.ln iiaiiibia. The infant mortality,-rate ranges from .-,.- 121-122 per 1000 live births in Burundi and lino de si a (excluding the low rat3,j in the islands of Mauritius9 -Seychelles and Reunion) to 259 ..:

in ^ambia. The life expectancy at birth represents the average years. • of life to-which, .a-group of new born.infants could look forward if:

they were subject to risks of.death at oaon sge,- according to: the r mortality rates observed at each level of aoe in the country during.t the period to which the measure refers; in the "iast Ifrican"countries it varies from 37 in ^ambis to 49 years in Rhodesia (excluding 31 years

in Mauritius and Reunion). " ' ■ : :

On the basis of t .e available data, the average gross reproduction rate for the sub-region comes.to 2.8; allowing for probably higher.

fertility in. Ethiopia and Somalia, the averse ior the sub-region can be taken at 2.Q around lQoCh : with a similar allowance made for pro bably higher mortality in Ethiopia, the average liie expectancy at birth ior the sub-region .an be estimated at 37>r years^. Jith these figures and on the basis of stable population'concepts, the average- birth und death rates for the £UD-r.:gion can l)c placed -A 46/IOOO and

25/1000 respectively.

although lack of data makes it difficult to establish a firm mortality trend in most of the. countries 3 iuiproveuient in medical faci lities and social and economic oor-uitions are likely to bring it down.

However, the present levels of aiortality. show that great work has still to be done in tn,; countries of the sub-region to reduce these levels.

rate of natural increase, of population,: which is obtained: ■ from the difference- betw-een the birth and death rates., is the lowest

(1.6 per cent of the. population) in Zanzibar and Pemoa.. .Excluding

thiis and the data from the other small .islands., the rate ranges from 2.2* per cent in Tanganyika and Uganda to 3.8 per cent in Rwanda ;

e 12). , .- . ; . .. . .

I/United Nations, Provisional Report on Jorld frospects as assessed

in 1963 9 o'-T/3Q^/Ser. R/7 n 1964/ ■ " ■' ' :

Fage 13

>V'' Population '

The popula.ionprojections for the various world regions and ■

sub-^regions have been wo ricet oufby the United Nations on basxs-of different assumptions concerning the future behavious of the fertxlxty

^h idividual coun- different assumptions cong

and mortal** &offlSo«t,ra^ ^M^ates^or^he : individual coun- ^ tries have been worket-out from the suc-regioral projections , Table1?

.ives the "medium" estimates pfsthe populatxon xn the East *£rxcan Countries for 1950, I960, I965:,,,v 1980 and Table 1.6 includes the estates for Eastern .frica as a whole for 1990 and 2000, the "medxu*

assumptions, relate ,to a moderate increase xn the life expectancy at ;

birth and a uiQ.derate fall, in the fertility. ■ ; ; . .. _....,

according Ho these Wstxmates5 while the -total population of ^rxca is expected to increase fro^ 273 .xllion in I960 to 449 million in 1980, that o# Eastern .frxeeTwill incr^^ ^ron, 66.6 million in I960-through,,.

106 million in 19^tol72 million in-the year .2000; from 25per cent in 1960, the share of Eastern ^rioa to the total population of -fnoa i. expected to deore.se to 24 per cent in 198O and 22 in 2000. This indicates that the rate of growth of population in Eastern *fnoa xs expected to be somewhat lower than that for the whole of ..fries.

(d) Changes in the a^e structure

Along with estimates of the total ;,opuUtion, its distribution in age groups is also important to determine the future investment needs

in the different sectors of economy to cater to the various age groups

and the supply of laoour and the fertility trends. Table 16 shows the distribution of the "medium" population estimates for Eastern .frxca for 1*60, 1965, 1970, 1975, 1980, 1990 and 2000 in the four broad age groups of 0-14 (young), 15-^4, ^9 (these two groups constituting

together the working age group), and 60 years and aoove (older persons).

With a high and constant fertility and a declining mortality, the pro- portion of population in the young age group (O-14) is expected to Increase from 43-4 per cent in 196O to 44-0 in 198O, beyond 198O, with

World Population Prospect ... ? °P*ciV

E/CN;f4/LU/3G0P/2

Page 14

the anticipated fall in fertility9 this--proportion is:;likelyitq::;(iecline to 39-4 per cent in 2000. Correspondinglyr:the. proportion of population

in the working age groups (-15-59) is expected to decline from 52.2 per cent in i960 to 51.5 per cent in 1980, to rise again to 55*4 in 2000•

(e) Changes in the proportion of women i'h the reproductive ages ...

Given the fertility rate per. woman, the number of women in the reproductive ages -determines the total volume of births and the birth rate of the the population* Table 17 shows the percentage of women in the reproductive a;es of 15-44 years to the total number of women, Ob tained from the "medium11 estimates of population* This proportion is expected to decline slowly from 42.9 per cent in i960 to 42«3 per cent in I98O. Only when the anticipated fall in fertility begins -to take

effect and comparatively smaller huWbers of female children are born

the proportion of women in tile reproductive ages would be expecteil to start to increase 9 rising to 45- 5 per" can't in 2000v

e/cn.14/lu/ecop/2 Page 15'

III. Concluding Remarks

The £ast\,frlca sub-region, in common -with the other sub-regions of iiSrica and other developing regions of the World, has a high rate of growth of population.' However^ in"contrast to the densely popu

lated de ve 1 opi ng~ re gi o ns at a "reTa t i veTy a dva nc e d stage" 'of ' deveTo pme nt,"

most of Africa is sparsely ^opulc-ted, and still at an early stage 'df development. The other demographic factors of the sub-regioii; a*e generally similar to' the other developing areas. bith concerted"'-1

efforts mortality is very likely to decline further (in Tanganyika,

for example, the raiding of the life expectancy at birth to jO years

in 1980'has been made an objective of the current Development Plan),

but fertility is expeted tc remain at the present high level,■so' that there is a prospect for further acceleration of the' rate of growth of population in the, near': future, the pace of urbanization is also likely to increase. The population is young and will get still younger", at least in the coming' two"" decades o

It,-is clear that., possibly sooner than can oe anticipated now, countries of the sub-region will have to make population trends the subject of a deliberate and comprehensive policy in their planning for economic and social development, and not merely an item to be taken ^ into account in their planning*., some other countries of the world are now taking this view—'. Such a recognition of the population factor in developenreTital- planning -should proceed-with the studies of a^ong--other™

things, implications of population trends on investment needs- in differ ent sectors of the .economy; the relationships of fertility and mortal ity with levels of living, detribalization, urbanization, Industri"aliza-

•:'H;ib^-v-':-gn^-^tie'"C-o-st-: and-eff^ctive-^ Kinds of population .

■policies under the conditions./^^ modern agriculture, and urban societies, taxing into account the social barriers to effec tive., population policies regarding migration, participation in economic activities, re-deployment and training of manpower, and family planning!

IT United Nations Population Commission, Draft Report to the Economic and Social Council on the Thirteenth Session of the Commission

(S/CN.9/L.78). ~~~

1/CN.14/LU/EC0P/2 Page 16

TABLE 1

Area and Population'""of' the Ea'st African Countries, I960

Country

Ethiopia

French Somaliland Somalia

Uganda Kenya Tanzania

Tanganyika

Zanzibar (and Pemba)

Rwanda ':

Burundi :

Zambia Malawi Rhodesia Madagascar, Comoro Islands : Reunion

Mauritius? inc. dep*

Seychelles

Total Eastern Africa

Area

(thousand km2), 1,184-

22 -.

638 240

583

940 937 '

2.6 26 28 746 119

389

596

2.2 2.5 2.1 0,4

Mid-1960

. Population estimate

Number (in Percentage

thousands distribution■•

205000

67 -:

2,010^

6,677

8,115 9,548

■ 9,239 309 2,671

- 2,500^

3,210

3,5002/

3,640 5,39.3 183 336 658

■42

29.2^ : 0.1 ■'■

2.9 9'V ' 11.8 ■.•■■■- 13.9 f

13.5 ; ;

0.4 3.9 3.6- 4.7 5-1 5-3

7.9 .., 0.3 0.5.

1.0 0.06 ...

68,-550 ¹⁰⁰

Africa 30,227 2735151

Sources United Hations5 Demographic Yearbook 1963% Provisional Report on Population Prospects as Assessed in 1963 (ST/SOA/Ser^B/7)§

Monthly Bulletin of Statistics, May 196$.

a/; Estimate revised unofficially, to agree with official estimate avail able for a date subsequent to I960*

E/ OS. 14/LU/EC0P/2

Page I?

•■■ —- • —

Country

•

Mauritius, inc» dep#

Reunion Seychelles Rwanda Burundi

Comoro—Islands Malawi

Uganda Ethiopia Kenya Tanzania

Tanganyika

Zanzibar (and Pemba)

Rhodesia - -

Madagascar Zambia

Somalia ;

French Somaliland '..-. f..-.

Total Eastern Africa Africa

Sources Table 1 and FAO :

TABLE1 2

Density of population, I960 Persons per km2 of

Total

area -

314

I34;

105 101

■-..:■.: 9°

'"84 7

30 27

10 10

117 '

9 9 4

'3

3 12

9

Production

Arable land

70#

56O 247 308 200 166 120 229 174 478

100

99 213 198 387

11 210

_

105 114

Yearbook,

Rural population—'a/

— 2

per km of .arable-land

510^

308

—

—

196

-

117 228 167 450

97

96

172

168 -

353: „_ . 9

■' 200 \

" - - •

100 100

1961, 1962, 1963.

Range of density in administrative

units (persons per kin2)

92-3482^/

—

— ■ .

37-185

39-221

-

15-45 15-67 1-43 3-121

6^26(1-434)^

105-144r^ 0

~~~ -- ■

;;';.;';; -. .5^4..1...::;'.:.'!.::

1-12n > ,e/ -:

1~14-/

—

• ' ■ — ' .■-■■■'•■- ' •'

a/ Population in towns with localities with less than 20,000 inhabitants*

b/ For Mauritius only, excluding dependencies*

0/ The density of 1,434 relates.to the city of Dai>~es-Salaam»

d/ For Zanzibar and Pemba respectively*

e/ For Southern Region only.

' E/CN.14/LU/EC0P/2 Page 18;

Percentage

- ~ ——..-- — ~

Country-

Zambia^

Kenya Rwanda—'

Burundi—^

Rhodesia-'

Mauritius exc. dep.

Reunion

Comoro-Islands Tanganyika

Zanzibar (and Pemba)

Uganda Madagascar Seychelles

Total Eastern Africa—'

Sources ... United Nations,

TABLE 3 s distributi-on-of. papul

Year

1962 1957 1957 1953-55

1962 1962 1962 1958 1957 1958 1959 I960 I960 I960

Demographic

Under—15-

yearh-

55.5^

51.3^

50.6^

46.6^

45.2

49.4^

44.7 44.7 43.1 42.4 35.7 41.4 39.0

38.5

43-4 ;

:::in age

■:'.-- years

40 44 40

1 50

50 48 54 50 54 55 52 52

Yearbook 1963?

•5

.$1

50.6 .4

.2 "'"

.8 .1

.5^

.8 .7 .4 .2

United

"Commissions for Africa , T'Recent Demographic Levels

Africa"9 Economic Bulletin for Africa (in press) 5

.. Le.. P.&Ty.s.? L.e.s. Hoiames^JBruxel a/' Mimber' of p§rsons""iM^er"' "&ge '15' m

15-19 years•

trtG" years and over per

groups

. 60 years and over

8, 8, 14-

S/

4.

5.

8.

3, 13- 3.

5<

9<

4.

>9

.1 .1

.5

.8 .3 .1 .4

Dependency

ratio a/

li11I

-

: "98"

99 104

84

-

82 79 90

9.1

Nations Economic and Trends in Le Ruanda—Urundi s

100 persons aged

•

.4 .2

.9 .8' ■■"■

.5":'"""

•5 .8 .6.

b/ African (indigenous) population only.

c/ For under 21 years, 22-45' years, "and 46 years ygt* over respectively.

d/ For "under 16 years, and 16 years- arid over* -

e/ For children, adults, and old persons respectively♦ ~ <

f/ For 15^44 years, and'45^ years and over respectively* - g/ Born 1946 and after, and born before 1946 respectively•

h/ Estimated,

Sex-ratio

Country .

French Somaliland Rhodesia ; .

Uganda

Mauritius iho, dep*

Zambia

Madagascar Kenya

Malawi -L-: t ^

Seychelles- -■

Reunion Tanzania

Tanganyika

Zanzibar (and Pemba)

Comoro-Islands Rwanda

Burundi

of popuj

Sector

Total Total Rural -Urban Total Total Total Rural Ur"ban Total Total Rural Urban Total Rural Urban

■■Rural - Urban Total -Total Total Total Total Total Total

Sources IM9 demographic Tear"book-.

Urundis Le Pays?

TABIJS 4

Lation-^fium

Tear

1956 .1961-62

1961-62

■ 1961-62 1959 ..1962 ■

1961 1961 1961 1956 1962 1962

■., 1962 . 1961 1961

■-■ 1961 I960 I960

■ 19-60 1961 - -1957-58

Ib571958 1958 1957 1957

Page

bej?-..jafeiffia-les -per •.. 10Q.:,£effl&l£

Total

115 S 105.9 rv

100,9 -l-GO-,8

98,: 6-/

98.1 95-1 142*4

96,8^

96.0

■99.6 .- - 86.2 95.3

■92.9

111.2 90 0 ,,.

87.5 85.4

(Indigenous)

111.1

10.6..,2^/

173.1&

100.8

102.9^

~ /

98 • 4

99,4s/

97:7

95=0

163.2

96.:63/

92,6 111.6

■;■'■■'

87-3 85.O

,19545-19631-ECA-, Demographic Levels Les Homines s Bruxelles. ■-"

,14/£U)'EC0P/2

"19 ■-■■-:-:.

js)

, . ...

Non-African ■,

(non—indigenous)

222.2

101.9^

'96:1^

113.7 : "

O r7'" *1 —-^

110.8-^

129-7^/ -■■■■■ — 107x3° ..,■■

111.2 116.7 110.2 110.8 112,4 1O9.4-

—■■■■. jj:&■.'•:■■,:.

,—

-116.'6^/

' 118.4

105 i 8

-

110.6 104.3 and Le Huanda-

_Notes Definition of African (indigenous) population as in Table' a/ For I96I-623 estimated.

/

tj For 1963.

b/ For 1962,

0/ For 1961.

d/ For Mauritius and p

e/ For 1961-635 estimated.

S/ For 1959^

h/ Unofficial estimate.

±/

Page 20

TABLE 5

Country

Rwanda

Burundi- , . .[■.•,.

Comoro .Islands Malawi ,

Seychelles Uganda v;:- Tanzania '

Tanganyika

Zanzibar (& Pemba)

Madagascar Zambia .. :.

Kenya

Rhodesia "

French Somaliland

Mauritius-^

Year

1958 .1958 -1958 1962 1947

'"'■■■*1959 /

1957-58^

. 1957

"1958

1962 1964

■-■•■■■19.62

1964

1956 1962

Sources ECAf Demographic Lev-els and iiNyasaland 1962?

Zambia5 Monthly

Population i

Indigenous

(Africans)

99*9

■99-1

'99-5

99.2

. 98.8.

98.7 98,4^

98.6

93.7^

98.1 97-5:

96.9

94.2 93.1

65.0s/

Trends, TM,.

de Madagascar

Europeans

(Whites')

0.1,:..

■;P.2 ..:.■■•

0.3

0.2 0.2 . 0.2 0,2 0.8 2.1 0.7 5.3

.' 31

Demographic

- ■■-■

Mixed

(Coloured)

0.0 0.0

. 0.5

—

0.0 0.0 0.0

-

-

-

-

;'■ 0.3 6.9

Yearbook 1963 au Ier Janvier 1963§

Digest of Statistics, January 1965; ^ Digest of Statistics, March 1965.

Asians

.0.0 0.1

0.4 1.2.

1.1 1.3 1.1 6.1 0.4 0.3

2.4-2/

0.2

Sliod e s ia, Mon thly

Others

■ —•

~.■■■ ■:Ar

0,1^,

0-0..

0.1 0.1 0.0

0.1^/

0.7

0.0

-

-

"0.0" indicates less than 0*05 per cent.

a/ Other non-African, including coloured*

b/ Estimated•

o/ African, Arab (including: persons of mixed Arab-African descent claiming to be indigenous)y""Comdrian'?" "■"Sbmari and" Zanzibar!* .' -r- . d/ Presumably includes persons of mixed, race*

s/ Including Arab^

f/ Including Rodrigoies. . :

g/ Indo—Mauri tan ian • ^ • ,/,:■,>i .:V ■:.:■.

h/ Includes settlers of European descent and native born of mixed origin.

i/ Chinese«

e/ car. 14/LU/ECOP/2

TABLE 6

... ,V.V;':

Country

French Sternaliland Reunion

Mauritius ex. dep«

Zambia Rhodesia Somalia ■ Madagascar"' Kenya

Ethiopia Tanzania

Tanganyika

Zanzibar '•(■& Pemba

Malawi:

Burundi Uganda

Tercenta^e

•■ - - (Towns •

..„ . .. .. .

Year

1963 1954 1962

1963

1964 1962-63

■■T 1959 1948 1962

1962-63

- :1948

1957-58 -1948

1957

) 1948

1958

'1962

I960

'1959

1948

Total 'Eastern Africa^ V i960

Sources UH Demographic Yearbook;

Mauritius 9

: of total population in urban areas o±\ 20*0.00 and mo.re iniidbitants)

Percentage of Population in cities o'f 100,000

"'total population and more ±nhatitarrbsi-as--p-e^ee»-%age in towns of

20,000 and more -

inhabitants a/

58.0., 45*0 30,1

16.5 ^ 14.8^/

•7 n^J

_{( • I . ■}

7.9 ::■-,.: . 3.8

5.9 -3.8 •

1.7-fy :-,;.. p

2.5-^

1,2; i . ..

1-9

17.1: ■■■:■■'-■!■ ■■.

19-4

1.9 : - 0.4

■1/2 ■■■■

5

/.\ (ii) population;:in

;UJ. total towns.of 20,-00.0 and

population more inhabitants a/

-

., 5.7^ 75.0^^

,: 4-7 ,59.0 ,,

2.2 58.4.,

5,2 ,,.. 8T.9:-;'

2.8 :-: '- -■■-■74vl■

1.5 77 • 2

- . "-'.y

3 60

, I960, 1963; ECi., Demographic Levels and Trends%.

1962 Populations Census? Rhodesia, November 1964s .Northern Rhodesia, Preliminary Census of Africans in Northern Rhodesia, 1964 Somalia, No

'■-'■■Statistical Tanganyika,

.1, 1964? Population de Madagascar Digest, September 1964i' '-Ethiopia,

Statistical

Monthly Digest of Statistics,

Report of the May/June 1963

I Compendio Statistico della au Ier Janvier,. I960 % Kenya Statistical Abstract,1964-5 Abstract. 1962: Uganda, 1963 Statistical Abstract.

a/ Including cities of 100?000 and more inhabitants.

b/ Including nearby suburbs♦

o/ African population only. ;;

d/ Unofficial estimate.

e/ Estimated.

Page "22 ^{TABLE 7}

p_opulationm Q£_.9APA.^l^JA^es anc^ cities of

'Country, "city and

Ethiopia . , ADDIS-ABABA: . . Asmara ■

French Somaliland DJIBOUTI

Somalia MOGADISCIO

Uganda^; • -:-• - MTEBBE

Kenya ,.

NAIROBI

Mombasa Tanzania

Tanganyika DAE-.ES-SALAAM

Zanzibar (& Pemba)

. .ZANZIBAR Rwanda '

KIGALI Burundi

BUJUMBURA Zamb ia

LUSAKA Kitwe Malawi

ZOMBA Rhodesia

SALISBURY Bulawayo Madagascar

TA1MARIVE- - - Comoro Islands

DZAOUDZI

SABFT-DMIS Mauritius

PORT LOUIS Seychelles

PORT VICTORIA

■ 100 *00G and more: inhabitants . . ... :

— ■ - - ■—

"date ~~

10-11 IX 1961

1963 (B) / /

20 VI 1963 (E) -

1963 (E),

25 ill & 18 vi.ii'1959

15 viii 1962 '

;, . 15 VIII 1962

.20 II & 18 VIII 1957

19 III 195$:;■"• V* .

31 XII 1959 tE) 31 xii i960 (e):

V-VI 1963-:.- .:

v~vi 1963 1 vii 1962:;(e)

-i-o-xv-1962 10-iv 1962

1 -1.1962 (e)

- VTKIX T958 '

1 VII 1954

1 vii 1962

4 V i960

Population City proper

'448,512

143?000

—

120,649

; 10,941

• 2-66,794 179.575

,57,923

—

•■■■..-■: —

-

254/27I.' 7

■ 304^ .::■;

"26,310

8.9,096 v..-

—

Urban --••■ — agglomeration

40,000

-

314,760 •-:■:■■■■■

-

: ■ 47,036,....,

101,570^

22,000

'r J54,QO(^:*

41,863s/

-page

Sources UN Demographic Yearbook5 1963.1- Ethiopia^ Statistical Abstract*

" 1964?; Compmg-iQ. Statistico della Somalia? No.l, 1964% Northern

■■■....' '..1- Bhodesia-»-rPr-eliminary. .Report.. of the May/June1963....Census-XdL. _ Africans in Northern Rhodesia, 19645 Rhodesia, Monthly Digest,;:

of Statisticsy November 1964% Mauritius» 1962 Population Census, Vol. 2.

Notes The capital city of each country is shown in capital letters.

(E) indicates an estimate of population•

a/ Census of non-African population,.26 September 1961, gave a total

of 10,400 for city proper and 13>$5O for urban agglomerations♦

b/ African population only.

c/ Census bf non-African population^ 26 September 1961, gave a total

of 50)230 for city proper and 94>55O for urban agglomeration•

Estimate for 30 June.1964 including nearby suburbs is 313,600. •"

d/ Estimate for 30 June I964 including nearby suburbs is 214,300*

f/ Admin i s tra t ive c ir con s cr ip t ion.

\:gf For commune, which may contain rural areas as well as urban centre.

geographical•■^TstrTd"t""6T""Port'"X6uiF'"Eact UST^XT per sons' oiT 1 July .19-62. ' . ... .■,-..:.■,:■:■;■,••-.■.:. ..-O. <^iL^.^j2^j^^*±

* '.-..;. t i

E/(2J.14/WJ/ECOP/2

Page 24 TABLE 8

Recorded long-term immigration and emigration

Country Year

Number of long-term immigrants

Number of long-term emigrants

Net immigration a/

Number Per cent of population Tanganyika

Reunion

Zanzibar (& Pemba)-'

Kenya-' ...

I960

y

Uganda

Ethiopia-7e/

1956I960

I960 1961

!953I960 1962 1958I960 1962

■6,525 -

4,553- 3,979 ■

7,211 9,668, -■0-105

84 11,096

Rhodesia

*J/

js/

Zambia- Mauritius

1962-63

-1955

I960 1963 1964 1956

6,318 3,152 2,534 1,713

■1,829

1,778 13,370

7,631/

5,297^

5,840 100

364

- 2,148-996 3,437 7,307 10,410 , 433 396 4,308 6,032 10,499 1,421

1,889 4,047

3,452 5,100,

10,650^

+ 5,529

+-2,205 + 542

v-"; 96

- 742

+ 6,788 + 521

- 4,181 + 1,731;

+ 645

-2,334

+8,270

+ 1,731 - 5,34 - 2,211

- 58

+ 0.07 + 0.02 + 0.005 - 0.03 - • .22

+ 0.10 + 0.01 - 0.05 0.03 0.009 -0.03

+ 0.27 + 0.05

r 0.06 -0.01

837

Sources UN, Demographic Yearbook, 19625 Tanganyika, Statistical Abstract, 19621

Kenya, Statistical Digest, September 1964? Uganda, 1963 Statistical Abstract?

Ethiopia, Statistical Abstract, 1964? Rhodesia, Monthly Digest of Statistics, March 1965; Zambia, Monthly Digest of Statistics January 1965»

a/ Excess of immigration over emigration.

2/ Data relate to new permanent immigrants and permanent emigrants respectively.

0/ Data refer to short - and long-term immigration together.

d/ Data relate to permanent immigration (including visitors becoming new permanent

immigrants) and permanent emigration (excluding temporary emigrants becoming permanent emigrants).

e/ For foreigners only. Data for long-and short-term taken together. Figures for 1961-62 exclude Eriterea.

f/ For "Europeans, Asians and Coloureds" only. Immigrants include new residents intending to remain in the territory for at least twelve months and former returning after an absence of twelve months or more. Emigrants are residents

leaving the territory permanently or for more than twelve months. Immigration from, emigration to, Zambia and Malawi are excluded.

g/ The discrepancy between the figures not explained.

h/ For non-Africans only. Immigrants are new residents intending to remain in the territory for at least twelve months. Former residents returning after an absence of twelve months or more are not regarded as immigrants. Immigrants are residents leaving the territory permanently.

e/cet. 14/lu/e.cop/2

Page 25

Sex and age— structure....of—

. .. L TABLE. 9.:. ... ■ -:. ^:-;.:..:.;.._;..:

international iipiigrants (long—and short—term)by

Country and ethnic groups

Sex Tear rati

Percentage, distribution in age groups

""•-•• ' (years)

Under . 55 and

15 15-34 35-54 over Unknown Tanganyika

European * I96I

Indian & Eakistani) Goan and Arab) I96I

Total

Uganda

1961

116.8

110,7 114,2

23.0 45,8 26.1 30.8 48.5

26,3 47.1 ^21.0

.1961 143*0 European

Indo-Pakistani ) ,

Goan,Arab & Others)-1961 143"9

Total , .1961 143c5

Kenya

European 1962 113*6

:±J:3:

Goan; Arab & Others)

Total J; ., ■ 1 OTr:: 1962 : 113,5

9-4

16,5

12.7

23.3 26.8 24.6

63 .&

61.3

,6^

52,2-

9.

-10.4-

12.

10.2-

3.3 4.1 3.6

5.&

6.1

^

1,8 2.3 2.0

8.7

7.2 8.0

5.5 3.2 4.6

Source; Tangariyika, Statistical Al>fe-fcraot, 1962i Uganda 196^

Statistical Abstract; Kenya, Monthly Bigeist of Statistics, September 1964^ - ' •

a/ Number of sales per 100 females, .

b/ For 15-39 years, • L

0/ For 40 - 49 years,

d/ For 50 years and over.

E/CF.14/LU/EC0P/2 Page 26

TABLE 10

Migration of Hon-indigenous African Males; Rhodesia

Non-indigenous African male migrants as . ..„ per cent, of total population... - Year

1954

1955

1956

195f

1958 1959..-.

i960 19.61..

12.62 19.63 1964

Immigrants—' 3.71

" 3,59

3.58 3.51 -3,15

2.45 ■■■■

2.17 1.69 : 1.31 .,

■■•:..9i99-:..-..

0.90

...Emigrants-^ Net migrants—^

3.36 "+ 0.35

3.65 - 0.06

3.66 - 0.08

3.46 - 0.05

■ 3,22 ■ - 0.07';---

■ : -2.80 ■■ ■; '- 0.35

2.34 - 0.17

1,78 - 0.09

_ 1,46 - 0.15:;; : ^

1.11 - 0.12

0.99 - 0.09

S6uco-e s Rhodesia y Monthly Digest of Statistics.,.. March 1965>

Migration Report for March 1965*

aj Refers to non-indigenoii.s African males registering—at —

District Commissioners' Offices.

~h/ Based on the number of no'n-ind'igenous'males who sur—

: ---•■- -rendered; their registration certificates on lea-vlng Rhodesia for periods exceeding 90 days, adjusted" by correction factors obtained from the quinquennial census of employees.

gJ Excess of immigrants over emigrants,

TABLE

;. Rates of growth

Country ^.

Burundi Reunion Rhodesia Somalia

Mauritius, inc. dep#

Kenya Madagascar

Zambia Rwanda Uganda Malawi Tanzania

Tanganyika

..._.. ., Za23.2ib.a1? .(& Pamba) ,

Ethiopia. *:.

, i c iSeydhellesi ■■■■ \.

Comoro Islands French Somaliland

11

of population

Recorded or official rate of growth of population Period

1958-62 1354-61.: u., 1958-62

1944-52 1952-62 1948-62''

1949-51 '

1958-62 1958-62 1958-62•

1948-59

1958-62

1948-57/58

1948-57.

19.31-4.8...

1948-58 :r:;I95-7=62; : \.;

-1931-47 -' 1947-60 1958-62 '

" ■■""1960-62" ■'

..-per. cent.

per year

4#8b/

;:.:. 3,4

_ /

3,2V

2.3 3a

"1 QbmmLJ

O Q /

O Q- /

.2.6^/

.2.1^/

•2.5

...1.8 ..0..7 ..

'--- -ivfr/'r.

1.2

■■: ■ Ii4-;i .].-.- : 1.5

/

E/CH.14/LU/BC0P/2

Page 27

Estimated rate of natural

increase of population a/

Period

1957 1961 1953-55

■■■- - ■■ —»

1962 I948

:

1950 1957

1958-59

1957-58 1957

„

1958

-"""■■■—.. ;•■; --■-—

1962

_

—

Sources UW, Demographic Yearbook, 1963? ECA, Demographic Levels

per cent per year

_ 2.9?^/ .

3.30

3.04*/

2.92^- 3.0-2/ - 2.462/ '-.•■

2.46s/

3.83^/. :

2,2

— ■ .: . t ' • • . .

2.13^/

2.15^/ :.-■..

■,...,._... .- ■■•- -•-

2.81

-"

and Trends;

Tables 10 and 11. ; \

&/ Birth rate minus death rate.

by Obtained from official estimates of population with questionable reliability,

0/ For Africa (indigenous) population, d/ Mauritius only, including dependencies

oj Official estimate on adjustment for under—enumeration

f/ Unofficial estimates.

E/CN. 14/LU/EC0P/2.v

Page 28

"--" : . : 'TABLE 12 ■:

Rates of growth of urban and total population co-mpound rates—in- 3

Country

Annual, r-ate of growth (per cent)

Period

': * Total

population Urban

Towns with 20 000 and more inhabitants--/a 7

Cities with 100 000 and more inhabitants Ethiopia "

Kenya ,

Mauritius ex#dep«

Tanganyika

Zanzibar (& Pemba)

"Uganda Rhodesia ...

Madagascar Seychelles

1957-62 1948-62 1952-62

1948-57/58

1948-57

194S-58

1948-59

1956-64 .1958-62 1947-60

1.6^ 2.9^

3.1

1.8*/

1,8 1.2

2.5 3.3

2.8^

1.5

6.2 2.8

4.0

6,6 4.4

6.9

2.5

12.0

3.8

9-7

0.8

Source; ECA, Demographic Levels and Trends; Ulff, Demographic Yearbook, I96O;, I9635 Kenya, Statistical Digest, September I9645 Maxoritius, 1962 Population Census 1

Tanganyika, Statistical Abstract, 19625 Uganda, 1963 Statistical Abstract.

a/ Including cities of 100,000 and more inhabitants.

b/ Obtained from official estimates with questionable reliability,

0/ Adjusted for under—enumeration, __ ._

d/ Unofficial estimate. :

e/ F6r"l955-58 (estimatedy.

E/CN.14/LU/EC0P/2 Page 29 '"

' "Country - '* " ' •"- ' Zambia (Af£icans)

Rwanda (indigenous) Kenya (Africans) Burundi (ijadige nous)

Tanzania

Tanganyika^ (Africans)

Zanzibar Pemba Madagascar

Rhodesia (Africans)

Reunion .. * ■ ,.

IJganda^ •.. -, ■■ t ...

Seychelles

Mauritius ex. dep#

- M.lfesM:i»..^,,

Source s *^IJ^'I'T^^mo^s^tc

Type

■Code

$ C E C.

E E E

;.e

D

:,?■■

A C B A

E-

TABLE Measures, of

■ Period--- ■■■■■

■ !95O .;..

1957 1948 1957 1957-58 1957 1958 1958 1950-55 1953-55 1963

1958-59

1962 1962

^1960

Demographic Levels Type codes

and Trends;

13 .-•

.fertility

Crude birth; rate

(p^r 1000

"56.8

52.0 50 46.6

45.75/.

46 32 45 45 44.8 .43,1

42 39.6 38.5

46

and Popul national

'•■ - -

General fertility-

rate (per 1000

women aged

-.,v. I5i49.■■■3fi&i&£S ) .-.-.--v.-:•

: ;i8i

220

-

173'

-

175

-

—

163

207

154.lV "

187

-

137.8

kH;ion': BulletinVETo* ,■%

publications.

Gross repro duction/rate

3.5 3.3 3.2 2.6

-

2.8 1.9

2V4

2.4 3.1

3.12/

_■

-

..'. 2.9 :

S '*■ J1/O<£X . ■'

A — Complete registration statistics. . • : :

B - Incomplete data from civil registers. r .. . C - Sample survey data.

D - "reverse-Survival" estimates 5 data of low or uncertain reliability.

E — Other estimates. ,, :

a/ Unofficial estimate- b/ For 1961.

0/ For i960.

page 30

*■ TABLE 14 :■■■.:.■.

Measures of mortality

Country ^{code Period}

Crude Infant morta- Expectancy death rate lity rate of life

(per 1000 (per 1000 at birth

persons live births) (years)

Zambia (Africans")

Tanzania

Tanganyika (Africans)

Zanzibar Pomba

"jganda

Kenya (Africans)

Madagascar

Burundi1 '(indigenous) Rhodesia' (Africans) Rwanda (indigenous) Seychelles

Reunion

Mauritius ex.dep.

Malawi

C E E E E C E C C C C B

A :

A

■ B"

1950 -

1957-58 1957 1958

1958 ■

I958-59' ■

1948 1957-61 1957 1953-55 1957 1962 1963 1962 1950-54 '

3272

24.4V

24.5

21 23 20 20 19 17.14

14.4 13.7 11.5 10.1 9.3

■259-

l8-a

190

157 171 160

.6^

37 37.5 i

■42i-8^

40,3^

122

40.4 66.9 60.1 137-3

475(4)^53.4(P)

Total Eastern Africa E I960 37.5

Source; .. U¥5 Demographic Yearbook^ 1963; ECA, Demographic Levels and Trends;

. national 1 ''''

Type codes

A — Complete registration statistics, B - Incomplete data civil registers•

C - Sample survey data, E - Other estimates.

S.J Unofficial estimates.

\jj For the Afro-Arab population.

0/ For 1952.

d/ For males and females respectively.

u/ For 1951-55.