Climate change impact on foliar pathogen infection: a generic response function to temperature and wetness duration

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Climate change impact on foliar pathogen infection: a generic response function to temperature and wetness

duration

Julie Caubel, G. Bourgeois, Marie Launay, Nadine Brisson

To cite this version:

Julie Caubel, G. Bourgeois, Marie Launay, Nadine Brisson. Climate change impact on foliar pathogen infection: a generic response function to temperature and wetness duration. Adaptation au Change- ment Climatique de l’Agriculture et des Ecosystèmes, Oct 2010, Clermont-Ferrand, France. 1 p., 2010.

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Relative inf. rate

T (°C) 0

1

Tmax Topt2 Tmin

Topt1

f(SWD) : Simplification of the Weibull equation:

f(SWD) = A [1 – exp{–(B*SWD)^C})]

SWD (hrs)

PROPOSAL

f(T): Linear equation: increase from Tmin to Topt1, decrease from Topt2 to Tmax and stagnation from Topt1 to Topt2

f(T, SWD): T influences the upper limit on the response to SWD : f(T, SWD) = f(T) (1 – exp{–[B(DW )]^D})

0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 1

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

A

B C

0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

f(T,SWD)_expé_T=20 f(T,SWD)_simul_T=20

0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

f(T,SWD)_simul_T=24 f(T,SWD)_expé_T=24

0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

f(T,SWD)_expé_T=28 f(T,SWD)_simul_T=28 0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1

0 5 10 15 20 25

0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1

0 20 40 60 80 100

0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

f(T,SWD)_expe_T=20 f(T,SWD)_simul_T=20

0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

f(T,SWD)_expé_T=25 f(T,SWD)_simul_T=25 0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1

0 5 10 15 20

0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1

0 5 10 15 20

f(T,SWD)_expé_T=25 f(T,SWD)_simul_T=25 0

0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1

0 5 10 15 20

Relative infection of carrot leaves inoculated with C. carotae

Incidence of infection on menth leaves inoculated with P. menthae

Relative infection of strawberry leaves inoculated with M. fragariae

Incidence of infection of vine leaves inoculated with P. viticola

INTRODUCTION: Generic models may be relevant tools for exploring and comparing the impact of climate change on the development of crop diseases in France. The infection process of foliar pathogens is mainly driven by wetness duration (SWD) and temperature (T). Response functions describing the infection rate have been developed in the literature. But, they are often complex functions, described by many parameters that do not ever have a biological significance. In this paper, we propose a generic response function f(T, SWD) that attempts to be robust (adapted to many foliar pathogens) and easy to apply (well-informed parameters in the literature). The function was fitted and validated by comparing simulated results with experimental data on 6 different pathogens.

J. Caubel¹, G. Bourgeois², M.Launay¹ , N.Brisson¹

1 INRA, AgroClim, Domaine St Paul, Site AgroParc, 84914 Avignon Cedex, France

2 CRDH, Agriculture and AgriFood Canada, 430 Boulevard Gouin, Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu, Québec J3B 3E6, CANADA

Simulated (curves) and observed (points) infection rates according to SWD (abscissa axis) for various T for 4 pathogens

CONCLUSION:

Maximal error of 20% but rather adapted to 6 pathogens that have strongly different T and SWD requirements Easy to apply: - 2 parameters of the Weibull function to be optimized through exp. response to SWD at Topt

- 4 parameters (biological significance) to be optimized through exp. response to T

→ Suited for comparing the effect of climate change on the foliar pathogen infection process

FITTING (6 pathogens: Albugo occidentalis, Mycosphaerella fragariae, Colletotrichum orbiculare, P. menthae, Cercospora carotae, P. viticola)

f(SWD) fitting with experimental responses to SWD at Topt: optimization of B and C f(T) fitting with exp. responses to T

Experimental responses at various T and SWD and simulated f (T,SWD) comparison VALIDATION

(6 pathogens)

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON FOLIAR PATHOGEN INFECTION: A GENERIC RESPONSE FUNCTION TO TEMPERATURE AND WETNESS DURATION

RESULTS

F(T, SWD): PROPOSAL AND VALIDATION METHOD OF THE PROPOSAL