Emerging threats linking tropical deforestation and the COVID-19 pandemic

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PerspectivesinEcologyandConservation18(2020)243–246

SupportedbyBotic´arioGroupFoundationforNatureProtection

www.perspectecolconserv.com

Policy

Forums

Emerging

threats

linking

tropical

deforestation

and

the

COVID-19

pandemic

Pedro

H.S.

Brancalion

a,∗

_,

_Eben

_N.

_Broadbent

b

_,

_Sergio

_de-Miguel

c,d

_,

_Adrián

_Cardil

c,d,e

_,

Marcos

R. Rosa

f

_,

_Catherine

_T.

_Almeida

a

_,

_Danilo

_R.A.

_Almeida

a

_,

_Shourish

_Chakravarty

g

_,

Mo

Zhou

g

_,

_Javier

_G.P.

_Gamarra

h

_,

_Jingjing

_Liang

g

_,

_Renato

_Crouzeilles

i,j,k

_,

_Bruno

_Hérault

l,m,n

_,

Luiz

E.O.C.

Aragão

o,p

_,

_Carlos

_Alberto

_Silva

q,r

_,

_Angelica

_M.

_{Almeyda-Zambrano}

s a_Department_of_Forest_Sciences,_“Luiz_de_Queiroz”_College_of_Agriculture,_University_of_São_Paulo,_Piracicaba,_SP_13418-900,_Brazil b_Spatial_Ecology_and_Conservation_Lab,_School_of_Forest_Resources_and_{Conservation,}_University_of_Florida,_Gainesville,_FL_32611,_USA c_Department_of_Crop_and_Forest_Sciences,_University_of_Lleida,_E-25198_Lleida,_Spain

d_Joint_Research_Unit_CTFC_–_AGROTECNIO,_E-25280_Solsona,_Spain e_Technosylva_Inc.,_La_Jolla,_CA,_USA

f_Department_of_Geography,_University_of_São_Paulo,_São_Paulo,_SP_05508-000,_Brazil

g_Forest_Advanced_Computing_and_Artiﬁcial_Intelligence_Laboratory,_Department_of_Forestry_and_Natural_Resources,_Purdue_University,_West_Lafayette,_IN_47907,_USA h_{International}_Consultant_on_Forestry_Statistics,_Rome,_Italy

i_{International}_Institute_for_{Sustainability,}_Rio_de_Janeiro,_RJ_22460-320,_Brazil j_{International}_Institute_for_{Sustainability}_Australia,_ACT_2602,_Australia

k_Mestrado_{Proﬁssional}_em_Ciências_do_Meio_Ambiente,_Universidade_Veiga_de_Almeida,_Rio_de_Janeiro,_RJ_20271-901,_Brazil l_Cirad,_UPR_Forêts_and_Societies,_{Yamoussoukro,}_Cote_d’Ivoire

m_Forests_and_Societies,_Univiversity_of_Montpellier,_Cirad,_Montpellier,_France

n_Institut_National_{Polytechnique}_Félix_{Houphouët-Boigny,}_INPHB,_{Yamoussoukro,}_Cote_d’Ivoire

o_Remote_Sensing_Division,_National_Institute_for_Space_Research_(INPE),_Av._dos_Astronautas,_1758,_12227-010_São_José_dos_Campos,_São_Paulo,_Brazil p_College_of_Life_and_{Environmental}_Sciences,_University_of_Exeter,_Exeter_EX4_4RJ,_United_Kingdom

q_Department_of_Geographical_Sciences,_University_of_Maryland,_College_Park,_MD_MD_20740,_USA r_School_of_Forest_Resources_and_{Conservation,}_University_of_Florida,_Gainesville,_FL_32611,_USA

s_Spatial_Ecology_and_Conservation_Lab,_Center_for_Latin_American_Studies,_University_of_Florida,_Gainesville,_FL_32611,_USA

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g

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g

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•Pandemicscanbecomeanew indi-rectdriveroftropicaldeforestation.

•Haltingillegal deforestationshould be considered an essential activity duringthepandemic.

•Forest ﬁres could aggravate the healthrisksofCOVID-19.

•Tropicaldeforestationwill increase therisksofemergingzoonotic dis-eases.

•Indigenouspeople shouldbe espe-cially protected during thecurrent pandemic.

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Articlehistory: Received9July2020 Accepted24September2020 Availableonline30September2020

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Tropicaldeforestationdriversarecomplexandcanchangerapidlyinperiodsofprofoundsocietal trans-formation,suchasthoseduringapandemic.EvidencesuggeststhattheCOVID-19pandemichasspurred illegal,opportunisticforestclearingintropicalcountries,threateningforestecosystemsandtheirresident ∗ Correspondingauthor.

E-mailaddress:[email protected](P.H.Brancalion). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pecon.2020.09.006

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P.H.Brancalion,E.N.Broadbent,S.de-Migueletal. PerspectivesinEcologyandConservation18(2020)243–246

Keywords: Tropicalforests Landusechange Deforestationdrivers Coronavirus Zoonoticdiseases Environmentalpolicy

humancommunities.Atotalof9583km2_of_{deforestation}_alerts_from_Global_Land_Analysis_&_Discovery

(GLAD)weredetectedacrosstheglobaltropicsduringtheﬁrstmonthfollowingtheimplementationof conﬁnementmeasuresoflocalgovernmentstoreduceCOVID-19spread,whichisnearlydoublethat of2019(4732km2_)._We_present_a_conceptual_framework_linking_tropical_{deforestation}_and_the_current

pandemic.Zoonoticdiseases,publichealth,economy,agriculture,andforestsmayallbereciprocally linkedincomplexpositiveandnegativefeedbackloopswithoverarchingconsequences.Wehighlight theemergingthreatstonatureandsocietyresultingfromthiscomplexreciprocalinterplayandpossible policyinterventionsthatcouldminimizethesethreats.

Theimportanceoftropicalforestconservationhasgainednew contours withtheCOVID-19 outbreak,as tropicaldeforestation increasestherisksofemergingzoonoticdiseaseswithpandemic potential(Allenetal.,2017;Rullietal.,2017;Rohretal.,2019). Country governmentalpolicieshave playeda keyrole in main-taining thepressure against theconversionof nativeforeststo agro-pastoral land, yet the level of commitment to enforce or discourage deforestation varies largely among tropical nations (Nepstadetal.,2014;Lambinetal.,2018).However,thispressure mayhavebeenreleasedduringthecurrentpandemic.Forinstance, shutdownsandbudgetrestrictionsofenvironmentalagencies dur-ingtheCOVID-19pandemicmayhaveconstrainedﬁeldoperations forlegalenforcement,whichlogisticsareparticularlycomplexin deforestationfrontiers(Guardian,2020).Inaddition,former sus-tainabilityagreementsmayhavebeenrelaxedduringthepandemic tosafeguardtheprovisionof agriculturalproductstoimporting countries(FAO,2020;Guardian,2020;Tracker,2020).

In order to address how tropical deforestation has been impacted during the current pandemic, we compared satellite imageryofdeforestationoverafourweekperiodin2020todata inthesamecorrespondingperiodin2019acrosstheglobal trop-ics. Adeforestationincrease duringtheCOVID-19periodwould not necessarilyimplyacausallinkage,asforestlosscouldhave increasedduetootherfactors,ascountrypoliticalchanges.Yet, changesindeforestationratescouldbeonepotentialconsequence ofCOVID-19pandemicontheenvironment,asbroadlyreportedin theinternationalmedia.Weusedthisanalysisasastartingpoint for presenting a broaderconceptualframework linking tropical deforestationandthecurrentpandemic,includingmultiple pos-itiveandnegativefeedbackloopswithoverarchingconsequences fornatureandhumanwellbeing,intheexpectationthatthis frame-workcouldbefurtheremployedforacomprehensiveassessment oftheimpactsofzoonoticdiseasesontheenvironment,andvice versa.

We ﬁrst obtaineddeforestation alert area fromGlobal Land Analysis&Discovery (GLAD;(Hansenetal.,2016), andcountry andcontinentofcenterpoint,onaweeklybasisforeachcellin a100km×100kmgriddistributedacrosstheglobaltropics.We thencalculated,usingGoogleEarthEngineandR,thetotal defor-estationfor2020and2019percountryintheperiodoffourweeks afterwhicheachcountryhadreacheda50%maximumvalueofthe GovernmentResponseStringencyIndextoCOVID-19developedby OxfordUniversity(OxCGRT,2020).Thiscompositeindexaccounts fornineresponseindicators,liketravelbansandworkplace clo-sures,andwasusedhereasasurrogateofthelevelofrestrictions topeople’smovementestablishedbylocalgovernments.We con-sideredthatsuchrestrictionscouldpotentiallyaffectgovernments’ capacitytocontrolforillegaldeforestation,whichoftenrelieson ﬁeld operationsinremote placesinvolvingseveralenforcement agents.For27outofthe118countriesinourstudywhereeither noSI information waspresent, orthecountryhad notreached the50%value,themedianweekofthecontinentwasused.Since wemostlyfocusedonthevariationofdeforestationratesatthe continentallevel,weconsideredthatthecontinentmedianweek

couldrepresentwelltheregionalcontextofcountrieswithoutSI estimates.

Thisanalysisprovidesevidencethatsignsofimmediateincrease oftropicaldeforestation areshowingupat theglobal level fol-lowing nationaland internationalpoliciesaimedat minimizing theimpactoftheCOVID-19pandemiconhumanhealth.Atotal of9583km2_of_{deforestation}_alerts_were_detected_during_the_first monthfollowingtheimplementationofgovernmentconfinement measurestoreduceCOVID-19spread,whichisnearlydoublethat of2019(4732km2_)._Overall,_{deforestation}_increased_by_63%,_136%, and 63% in America, Africa, and Asia-Pacific, respectively, and impactedmostcountrieswithintheseregions(America:24of28 countries;Africa:30 of47countries; andAsia-Pacific: 15of 28 countries).Although thecausallinkage betweenCOVID-19 and tropicaldeforestationstillhastobeconfirmed,ourresultssuggest thatthecapacityoftropicalcountriestoaddressconservation–and potentiallyhumanitarian–concernshavebeenunderminedbythe healthandeconomiccrisisresultedfromthecurrentpandemic.

Tropical deforestation increase following government responses to the pandemic may have been a reﬂex response to the longer-term reciprocal interplay between deforestation drivenbyland-usechangesandtheCOVID-19outbreak.Thisinitial fastcycleofdeforestationisfavoredintropicalareaswherelegal enforcementhistoricallyhasbeenofgreatimportancetoreduce forestloss, illegaldeforesters have higherchances ofobtaining landtitlesforinvadedlandsinthefuture,andfarmershavegood prospectsfortradingtheadditionalyieldsresultingfromalarger productionarea(Lambinetal.,2018;SeymourandHarris,2019). COVID-19pandemicmayhavealsocompromisedtheindependent, oftencommunity-driven,on-the-groundmonitoringthatprevents landgrabsandtenureconﬂicts.Lessimportantdriversheremay bevolatilefoodprices andglobal demand,which,when linked tourban-to-rural migration motivated byCOVID-19, may have encouragedfarmersinotherareastooptforcashcrop-drivenland clearing.

Furthermore,theparticulatematteremittedbybiomass burn-ingduringlandclearing–themostwidespreaddriverofpremature humanmortalityintropicalregions(Lelieveldetal.,2015)–could aggravatethehealthimpactsofthecurrentpandemic,asair pollu-tionexacerbatestherespiratoryproblemsresultingfromCOVID-19 infection(Wuetal.,2020)andcouldoverburdenthefragile health-caresystemofmanytropicalcountries.Inturn,themorestringent andlong-lastinggovernmentresponsestothepotential aggrava-tionof theCOVID-19health crisisduringtheforest ﬁreseason arelikelytodistractattentionfromforestprotectionpolicies,thus creatingaperversepositivedeforestationfeedbackloop(Fig.1).

In themedium-term, the upcoming global economic down-turnshouldforcedevelopingcountriestoincreasetheireconomic dependencyoncommodityexports,favoredbythedevaluationof nationalcurrenciesandtheincreasingdomesticandinternational demandsforagriculturalproducts.Thepoliticalandtrading envi-ronmentswill likelyrelaxpreviousregulationsand agreements thatprotectforests(Degnarain,2020; FAO,2020),thusopening thedoorforfurtherdeforestation(Fig.1).Conversely,globaltrade disruptionsintensiﬁedbytheCOVID-19pandemic(Organization,

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P.H.Brancalion,E.N.Broadbent,S.de-Migueletal. PerspectivesinEcologyandConservation18(2020)243–246

Fig.1. FeedbackloopsbetweentropicaldeforestationandtheCOVID-19pandemic.Zoonoticdiseases,publichealth,economy,agriculture,andforestsmayallbereciprocally linkedincomplexpositiveandnegativefeedbackloopswithoverarchingconsequencesfornatureandsociety.

2020)mayslowdowninfrastructureandrealestateprojects,thus reducingthepressureofkeydriversoftropicaldeforestation,such asroadanddamconstruction,logging,andmining,consequently resultinginanegativefeedbackloop(Fig.1).Thisnegativeloop may,however,becomepositiveifgovernmentsadoptmeasuresto incentivizethesesectorstostimulatetheireconomiesduringthe recession(Fig.1).

Lastly, therisksofinfectious diseaseoutbreaksarehigherin rapidly deforestedtropical regions.Nearly 50%of zoonotic dis-easesthathaveemergedinhumansareassociatedwithagricultural drivers(Rohretal.,2019).Theupcomingrecessiondrivenbythe COVID-19pandemicmayalsoincreasepovertyandfoodinsecurity indeforestationfrontiers,leadingtogreaterbushmeat consump-tionandincreasedchancesofnewzoonoticdiseases.Inthiscontext, itwillbechallengingforgovernmentstoprotectpeople’slivesand tropicalforests,aswellastoprovideassistancetolocal commu-nitieslivingatthemarginsofthecasheconomyindeforestation frontiers(FerranteandFearnside,2020),whichcanbecrucialto preventingnewpandemics(Everardetal.,2020).

Policyrecommendations

Toturnthetideofthesedeleteriousreinforcingmechanisms, governmentsshoulddeveloppolicyinterventionsaimingto mini-mizetheseemergingthreatslinkingtropicaldeforestationandthe COVID-19pandemic:

Focusonlivelihoodsinruralcommunitiesandindigenouslands: Tropical forest protection shouldbe viewed as a cost-effective opportunitytomitigatepandemicimpactsonthemost vulnera-ble societalgroups,includingruralcommunitiesandindigenous people.Indigenous landsshouldbea priorityforlegal enforce-mentoperations,aswellandlegalandtechnicaltoolstoempower

communitylandtenure.Manyindigenousgroups,whichare partic-ularlymorevulnerabletoinfectiousdiseases,arelocatedinregions oflandconﬂictsandhighinvasionpressure,whereinvadersmay introducetheSARS-CoV-2virusandworsenthealreadyfragile sit-uationofthesegroups(FerranteandFearnside,2020).Inaddition, ruralcommunitiesintropicalforestareasusuallyhavevery lim-itedaccesstohealthcareandwillrequirespecialattentionfrom nationalgovernmentsduringthepandemic.

Considerhaltingdeforestationanessentialactivity: The poten-tiallyemerging newwave of tropicaldeforestation willrequire societalleadersandinstitutionstomovebeyondthepublic health-economydualismin tacklingtheprofoundconsequences ofthe pandemic(Guerrieroetal.,2020).Tropicalcountriesfacing increas-ingratesofforestlossshouldincludeenvironmentaloversightand controlwithintheirlistofessentialactivities.Atthesametime, governmentsshouldencouragestrategiesthatboostlegaltimber marketsandsupplychainsinordertopreventopportunisticactors fromaccessingbothnationalandglobalmarkets(FAO,2020).

Anticipateanincreaseinforestfires:Widespreadforestfires,like thoseobservedin2019intheBrazilianAmazon,couldincrease airconcentrationof fineparticulatematterand worsen COVID-19infection,overburdeningthefragilehealthcaresystemofmany tropical countries(Cardil and de-Miguel, 2020; Londo ño et al., 2020).Healthauthoritiesmustbepreparedforthisthreatasthedry seasonisabouttobegininmanytropicalforestregions,andwill havetoaddressboththecause(i.e.,forestfires)andthesymptoms (i.e.,increaseddemandforhealthcare)ofthisemergingproblem simultaneously.

Encourage strategies to boost legaltimber marketsand supply chains: By creatingobstacles toillegally extracted timber, gov-ernment institutions will discourage opportunistic actors from accessingboth nationalandglobalmarkets.Under theexpected 245

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P.H.Brancalion,E.N.Broadbent,S.de-Migueletal. PerspectivesinEcologyandConservation18(2020)243–246 disruptions toglobaltradeofthis pandemic, domesticmarkets,

encouragedthrougheconomicincentives, couldboosteconomic resilience (FAO,2020).In the longterm,forest product market diversiﬁcationmayalsopreventthecollapseofsupplychains. Innovatetoprotectforests

Alternativestrategies,whichrelylessonﬁeldpersonnel,should beusedtocombatdeforestation.Forexample,satellitescannow track deforestationquiterapidlybasedonalertsproducedwith opticalimagery(Fineretal.,2018).However,thechallengeremains whattodowiththesealerts,asidentifyingtheproblemisonlythe ﬁrststeptowardsresolvingit.Thetechnologyforborderpatrolling hasadvancedquicklyinrecentyearsandcouldbebenchmarked toprioritizeremoteareaswherecontrollingdeforestationismost critical.Thiswillbeessentialiffurtherself-isolationand‘lockdown’ interventionsarerequiredtocontroltheCOVID-19pandemicorin thecaseofnewpandemics.

In spite of the still numerous uncertainties regarding the impactsoftheCOVID-19pandemiconsocietyandtheenvironment, governments mustacturgentlytotackletheinterplaybetween pandemicsandclimatechangewhileensuringsafeguarding tropi-calforestsandtheirpeople.

Conﬂictofinterest

Theauthorsdeclarenoconﬂictofinterest.

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