IBMA,17janvier2012,OnemaParis AlbanThomas EspècesInvasivesetAnalyseCoût-Bénéfices

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Esp èces Invasives et Analyse Co ût-B én éfices

Alban Thomas¹

1INRA UMR 1081 LERNA (Toulouse School of Economics)

IBMA, 17 janvier 2012, Onema Paris

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Outline Introduction Ecological Aspects of Biological Invasions Governance Economics of Biological Invasions Selected CBA Case Studies Conclusion

1 Introduction

2 Ecological Aspects of Biological Invasions

3 Governance

4 Economics of Biological Invasions

5 Selected CBA Case Studies

6 Conclusion

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Introduction (1/3)

Biological invasions (akainvasive speciesakanon-indigenous species)

Various categories: insects, mammals, reptiles, plants, germs, seeds, trees, etc.

Most plants/animals in our countries were first introduced (often for good reasons, but something went wrong) Harmful or beneficial to human beings and/or ecosystems

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Introduction (1/3)

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Introduction (1/3)

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Introduction (1/3)

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Introduction (1/3)

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Introduction (2/3)

Examples:

Rabbits in Australia: 12 couples imported in 1859, 900 million by the end of the 19th century

Starling (´etourneaux): 60 individuals released in Central park, New York in 1890. 1918: 7 states invaded and by 1962, all US states.

Water hyacinth: now in 50 countries over 5 continents Nile perch (predator fish) invaded Lake Victoria in 1950, demographic explosion leading to extinction of 200 species out of the 400 existing endemic species.

MolluscDreissena Polymorphain fresh water: from Caspian and North Seas conquered North and North-West Europe, Great Lakes in US and the Mississippi.

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Introduction (2/3)

Examples:

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Introduction (2/3)

Examples:

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Introduction (2/3)

Examples:

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Introduction (2/3)

Examples:

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Introduction (2/3)

Examples:

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Introduction (3/3)

Growing concern about invasive species, because Rapid increase in communication and international trade:

globalization

Change in landscape (fragmentation) Overexploitation of some natural resources More evidence about biodiversity loss Why they can be harmful

to humans: toxic organisms, transmission of pathogens, pests, etc., health hazards (fire ant)

to ecosystems: competition with endemic species, and destruction of landscape global effect: diversity loss (reduction in future production/consumption potential) to natural resources: water flows, water quality

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Introduction (3/3)

globalization

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Introduction (3/3)

globalization

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Introduction (3/3)

globalization

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Ecological Aspects of Biological Invasions (1/3)

Fortunately, every imported species does not turn into an invasive species

The problem is when imported species settle locally Naturalized species are considered invasive only when they proliferate in ecosystems while modifying significantly the structure and functionality of ecosystems

Debate among ecologists about the relationship between ecological diversity of ”receiving” environment and the potential of invasion.

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Ecological Aspects of Biological Invasions (1/3)

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Ecological Aspects of Biological Invasions (1/3)

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Ecological Aspects of Biological Invasions (1/3)

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Ecological Aspects of Biological Invasions (2/3)

Conceptual model by Planty-Tabacchi (1993):

introduction

colonization (settlement)

development, either destruction or integration extension

Williamson and Fitter (1996): rule of 3 times 10. In general, 1000 imported species→100 considered introduced→10 naturalized→only 1 invasive.

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Ecological Aspects of Biological Invasions (2/3)

Conceptual model by Planty-Tabacchi (1993):

introduction

colonization (settlement)

development, either destruction or integration extension

Williamson and Fitter (1996): rule of 3 times 10. In general, 1000 imported species→100 considered introduced→10 naturalized→only 1 invasive.

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Area of origin Exports

Introduction Local system

Anthropic System Natural System

Elimination

Development

Competition

Extension Colonization Competitive exclusion

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Governance (1/2)

First international program in 1982, Ecology of Biological Invasions, initiative of theScientific Committee on

Problems of the Environment (SCOPE)

Several volumes out of this program: Australia (1986), US and Hawaii (1986), South Africa (1986), Europe and Mediterranean countries (1990), tropics (1991).

First world conference in Trondheim (Norway), 1996.

Recommendations leading to the Global Invasive Species Programme (GISP) in 1997

Approved by more than 50 countries. Outputs includeThe Economics of Biological Invasionsby Perrings, Williamson and Dalmazzone (2000).

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Governance (1/2)

Approved by more than 50 countries. Outputs includeThe Economics of Biological Invasionsby Perrings, Williamson

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Governance (1/2)

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Governance (1/2)

Approved by more than 50 countries. Outputs includeThe Economics of Biological Invasionsby Perrings, Williamson

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Governance (1/2)

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Governance (2/2)

International laws: convention on biological diversity in 1992, and the Berne convention (also in 1992).

Amendment to the International Convention on Plant Protection (ICPP), which now includes ”pest quarantine”.

CBA is now adopted as a guide for plant protection:

recommendations of ICPP, in US, Australia and New-Zealand.

Also recommended by European Commission regarding decisions affecting biodiversity.

CBA is compatible with establishment of white/black lists in international trade

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Governance (2/2)

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Governance (2/2)

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Governance (2/2)

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Governance (2/2)

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Ecological Aspects of Biological Invasions (1/2)

Probability of biological invasions

Introduction: voluntary of not voluntary

Factors of establishment: soil type, climatic proximity, host-plants, fragmentation of incoming (receiving) environment (non-anthropic areas, natural obstacles, sterile soil)

Factors related to introduced species and their introduction mode (Meyer, 2000): growth speed, reproductive capacity, effective dispersion potential (by wind, birds), strong persistence of seeds in soil, tolerance to a wide range of ecological conditions, and genetic diversity of introduced individuals.

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Ecological Aspects of Biological Invasions (1/2)

Factors related to introduced species and their introduction mode (Meyer, 2000): growth speed, reproductive capacity, effective dispersion potential (by wind, birds), strong persistence of seeds in soil, tolerance to a wide range of ecological conditions, and genetic diversity of introduced

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Ecological Aspects of Biological Invasions (1/2)

Factors related to introduced species and their introduction mode (Meyer, 2000): growth speed, reproductive capacity, effective dispersion potential (by wind, birds), strong persistence of seeds in soil, tolerance to a wide range of ecological conditions, and genetic diversity of introduced individuals.

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Ecological Aspects of Biological Invasions (1/2)

Factors related to introduced species and their introduction mode (Meyer, 2000): growth speed, reproductive capacity, effective dispersion potential (by wind, birds), strong persistence of seeds in soil, tolerance to a wide range of ecological conditions, and genetic diversity of introduced

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Ecological Aspects of Biological Invasions (2/2)

The probability of invasion

is increasing in the cumulative volume of imported commodities and the number of passengers.

is decreasing through time with the one of other countries or other ecosystems (illustrating the poor potential of invasion since species would have done so before).

is positively correlated with similarity between trade partners and importing country.

The probability of propagation

Intermediate products are more likely to favor propagation of invasive species than final products.

depends on exogenous perturbations to local ecosystems (natural and climatic events, road or mining projects, deforestation).

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Ecological Aspects of Biological Invasions (2/2)

The probability of invasion

is increasing in the cumulative volume of imported commodities and the number of passengers.

is decreasing through time with the one of other countries or other ecosystems (illustrating the poor potential of invasion since species would have done so before).

is positively correlated with similarity between trade partners and importing country.

The probability of propagation

Intermediate products are more likely to favor propagation of invasive species than final products.

depends on exogenous perturbations to local ecosystems (natural and climatic events, road or mining projects,

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Economics of Biological Invasions (BI) (1/6)

Economic impacts: agriculture, human health, waterways, etc.

Study Country Species Total cost

Bertram 1999 New-Zealand weeds 840 NZ$ million

Turpie & Heydenrych 2000 South Africa fynbos(Black wattle tree) US$ 65 million

Wit et al. 2001 South Africa Black wattle tree US$ 552 million

Reinhardt et al. 2003 Germany 20 IS Euro 160 million/year

Cullen & Whitten 1995 Australia Rubus fructicosus, AS $ 2 million

Echtum plantaginetum

Tisdell 1990 weeds Australia AS$ 33 million

Pimentel et al. 2002 USA 50,000 IS US$ 137 billion/year

Pimentel et al. 2001 UK, India, US, Australia 120,000 IS US$ 314 billion/year Brazil, South Africa

OTA 1993 US 79 IS $ 97 - 137 billion

Perrault et al. 2003 US Saltcedar $ 39 - 121 million / year

GAO 1999 Michigan Sea lamprey $ 3 million

Sturtevant Great Lakes Sea lamprey $ 2-4 billion/year

Hushak 1995 Lake Erie Ruffe $ 600 million

Various Zebra mussel $ 5 billion

Sun 1994 Great Lakes Zebra mussel $ 5 billion

Cataldo 2001 Great Lakes Zebra mussel $ 3.1 billion

Rockwell 1991 Florida Aquatic weeds $ 7.3 million/year

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Economics of Biological Invasions (BI) (2/6)

Possible policy measures:

ban, prevention, treatment (in introduction stage) detection on the fields (in establishment stage) eradication (or control) (in propagation stage) if everything fails, mitigation (adaptation by local environment).

Research issues:

determine which species are likely to become invasive and develop, based on local conditions

evaluate cost of control and damage on local economy and ecosystems, to construct white/black lists of imported species.

In parallel, inspection policies compared to eradication

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Séminaire Chizé - 22-24/09/2010 12



(1) Transport commercial (1) Transport passagers (2) Installation

(3) Propagation

(4) Transfert

(1) Listes noires ou grises (2) Quarantaine

(3) Formation analyse des risques (2) (3) Réseau de biosurveillance (2) (3) Eradication

(1) Transport commercial

(1) Transport passagers

Stations de bio-surveillance

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Economics of Biological Invasions (BI) (2/6)

Possible policy measures:

ban, prevention, treatment (in introduction stage) detection on the fields (in establishment stage) eradication (or control) (in propagation stage) if everything fails, mitigation (adaptation by local environment).

Research issues:

determine which species are likely to become invasive and develop, based on local conditions

evaluate cost of control and damage on local economy and ecosystems, to construct white/black lists of imported species.

In parallel, inspection policies compared to eradication

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Economics of Biological Invasions (BI) (3/6)

Little empirical analysis (mostly trade-related or risk assessment)

Perrings et al. (2002): control of BI as a public good, discuss (economic) reasons for invasions

Shogren (2002): risk-reduction strategies with endogenous risk (mitigation of adaptation to BI)

Horan et al. (2002): identify appropriate level of pre-invasion control in the case of uncertainty about invasions

Thomas and Randall (2000): explore role of information and revocability on intentional releases of species, liability issues

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Economics of Biological Invasions (BI) (3/6)

Little empirical analysis (mostly trade-related or risk assessment)

Perrings et al. (2002): control of BI as a public good, discuss (economic) reasons for invasions

Shogren (2002): risk-reduction strategies with endogenous risk (mitigation of adaptation to BI)

Horan et al. (2002): identify appropriate level of pre-invasion control in the case of uncertainty about invasions

Thomas and Randall (2000): explore role of information and revocability on intentional releases of species, liability

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Economics of Biological Invasions (BI) (4/6)

Eiswerth and van Kooten (2002): application of stochastic optimal control with uncertainty about relevant sate variables (fuzzy sets)

Knowler & Barbier (2000): bioeconomic model of BI under competition with local species

Leung et al. (2002): bioeconomic model to define acceptable risk level (stochastic dynamic programming), market and non-market values

Settle and Shogren (2002): model interaction between invasive and native trouts, grizzly bears, birds of prey and humans

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Economics of Biological Invasions (BI) (5/6)

Olson & Roy (2002): BI management policy with natural growth and spread and environmental disturbances Dalmazzone (2000): correlation between BI and international trade, with various pathways

Levine & d’Antonio (2003): forecast rate of future invasion from species accumulation models

Fernandez (2004): Specify optimal BI management

programs under condition of minimization of social costs of shipping

Colautti et al. (2003): role of trans-oceanic shipping as vector for BI

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Economics of Biological Invasions (BI) (6/6)

Oran & Lupi (2004): economic efficiency of compliance strategies (biosecurity measures)

Costello & McAusland (2003: impact on production costs of foreign suppliers, due to BI management policies (import tariffs)

Costello & McAusland (2004): substitutability /

complementarity between policy tools (tariffs, inspections) Margolis & Shogren (2004): model `a la

Grossman-Helpman for tariff formation with interest groups (exporters)

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CBA applied to Biological Invasions (1/2)

Outline of Steps for Benefit/Cost Analysis of Biological Invasions (BI)

1. Effect estimation

a. Identify relevant input and output categories b. Define units of measurement for input and output

CBA applied to Biological Invasions (2/2)

2. Valuation of direct effects a. Market goods

- Marginal changes in production (market price, change in output)

- Non-marginal changes in production (measure consumer &

producer surplus)

b. Non-market goods (contingent valuation) 3. Calculate indirect effects

a. Multiplier income and employment effects b. Related goods

4. Calculate annual benefits and costs 5. Accounting for time

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Selected CBA Case Studies

First CBA surveyed by OTA (Office of Technology Assessment, 1993), United States.

Species Year of Total Total Benefit

study costs benefits Cost ratio

NPV, in 1991 million USD Past impacts - Plants

Hydrilla & water hyacinth 1982 0.641 0.112 5.25/1

Melaleuca 1991 160 12.3 13/1

Past impacts - Fish

Sea lamprey 1980 878.588 63.897 13.75/1

Sea lamprey 1988 296.421 9.797 30.25/1

Potential impacts - Plants

Purple loosestrife 1987 53.47 1.982 27/1

Witchweed 1976 845.6 - 2,163.43 113.03 - 124.53; 6.78/1 - 19.1/1 Potential impacts - Insects

Cotton boil weevil 1979 5.068 - 7.193 0.279 - 0.418 17.2 - 18.1

Mediterranean fruit fly 1981 1,188.41 93.40 12.75/1

Potential impacts - Pathogens

Foot and mouth disease 1976 25,275.51 1,013.19 - 1,497 16.88/1 - 24.95/1 Potential impacts - Others

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RIFA (1/4)

California: Red Imported Fire Ant (RIFA)Solenopsis invicta Originate from South America (1940s)

Discovered in California in 1997, from Texas and South-Eastern US states

Estimated spread speed: >100 miles a year Major risks:

to humans, stings (life-threatening anaphylactic shock in 1

% of population)

extensive damages to irrigation and electric lines infestation of traffic and airport landing light systems danger for endangered species (spotted owl, etc.)

USDA and FDA policy: quarantines on movements of soil, hay and equipment from infested regions

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Red Imported Fire Ant, quarantine areas and colonization risk,

Alban THOMAS Esp èces Invasives et Analyse Co ût-B én éfices

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RIFA (3/4)

Total estimated annual costs of RIFA establishment in California (Jetter et al., 2002)

Impact ($ million)

Category Low Medium High

Tree and vine crops 12.0 30.0 48.0

Vegetable crops 3.7 9.2 14.8

Field crops 0.8 2.0 3.3

Nursery 18.2 18.2 18.2

Sod 4.5 4.5 4.5

Rangelands 5.9 9.5 15.4

Total agricultural 45.1 73.5 104.2 Total household 342.0 829.0 885.0

Total 387.1 902.5 989.2

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RIFA (4/4)

Required probability of successful eradication program for benefits to equal eradication costs

NPV of eradication costs of $65.4 million (10 years, r=7%) Costs are estimated expense for all years of establishment.

Impact level Cost of Break-even establishment probability ($ billion) (%)

Low 3.9 1.72

Medium 9.0 0.73

High 9.9 0.67

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Black wattle tree in South Africa (1/8)

De Wit, M.P., D.J. Crookes and B.W. van Wilgen, 2001.

Conflicts of interest in environmental management: estimating the costs and benefits of a tree invasion.Biological Invasions3, 167-178.

Black wattle tree (Acacia mearnsii): introduced 19th century into South Africa from Australia

Commercial benefits, but highly invasive

Damages to biodiversity, water resources, riparian ecosystems

South African policy was to clear invasive stands This paper explores and compares control options

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Black wattle tree in South Africa (2/8)

Benefits associated with black wattle tree (Acacia mearnsii)

Nature of benefit Net present value

Tanning agents 363

Fuel source for local communities 143

Brandering 8

Laths 5

Poles 9

Standing plantations as carbon stores 24

Total >552

In 1998Rmillion (R6 = 1US$)

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Black wattle tree in South Africa (3/8)

Negative impacts associated with black wattle tree (Acacia mearnsii) in 1998Rmillion (R6 = 1US$)

Nature of impact Net present value

Reduction of surface streamflow 1,425

Biodiversity loss ?

Increased fire hazard 1

Increased erosion ?

Destabilization of river banks ?

Loss of recreational opportunities ?

Aesthetic costs ?

Nitrogen pollution ?

Loss of grazing potential ?

Total >1,426

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Management scenarios (4/8)

1. Business as usual (do nothing)

No attempts to control invasive plants Commercial benefits unaffected 2. Physical clearing

Commercial activities continue

Invasive plants controlled by felling, herbicide treatment, and follow-up

3. Combination of biological control (seeds) and physical clearing

Commercial activities continue

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Management scenarios (5/8)

4. Combination of biocontrol (plants), assuming commercial growers can protect plantations at a low cost

Invasive plants controlled by biocontrol agents that kill trees, can be countered effectively by growers

Commercial interests impacted, but not to a great extent 5. Combination of biocontrol (plants), assuming commercial

growers can protect plantations at a high cost

Invasive plants controlled by biocontrol agents that kill trees Wattle growers can only control this situation at a high cost Commercial interests severely impacted

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Management scenarios (6/8)

6. Combination of better plantation management and physical clearing

Commercial activities continue with improved management of invasions

Invasive plants controlled by felling, herbicide treatment and follow-up outside plantations

Commercial benefits reduced slightly

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Management scenarios (7/8)

8. Combination of biocontrol (plants), assuming commercial growers unable to effectively protect plantations

Invasive plants controlled by biocontrol agents that kill trees Growers unable to protect plantations from biocontrol agents

Commercial interests probably curtailed

7. Combination of secondary industry and physical clearing Commercial activities continue

Secondary industries utilize the products of cleared areas Commercial benefits unaffected

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B/C ratios based on 20-year NPV (8/8)

Scenario I II

1. Do-nothing 0.4 0.3

2. Physical clearing 3.2 4.5

3. Biological control & physical clearing 4.1 5.8 4. Biocontrol, physical clearing, assuming 7.5 10.7

low cost of plantation protection

5. Biocontrol, physical clearing, assuming 4.0 5.7 high cost of plantation protection

6. Better plantation management & physical clearing 2.5 3.0 7. Secondary industry & physical clearing 3.2 4.5 8. Biocontrol, assuming growers unable 2.4 3.5

to effectively protect plantations I: Only quantifiable Cs and Bs ;

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Conclusion (1/2)

Growing literature on economics of invasive species but Lack of empirical studies, mainly because of

Data limitation

Cost of contingent-valuation studies

Lack of systematic bioeconomic models of IS management Most studies concentrate on either

Trade-related policies (customs tariffs, quarantine, white/black lists)

or control and eradication

Non-market effects are typically difficult to assess Invasive species can be beneficial or harmful depending on the sector (ambiguity)

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Conclusion (2/2)

Issues:

Consistent analysis of joint policy options at various stages (introduction, spread, establishment)

Typical example of natural disaster: low-moderate probability of establishment but huge damage costs Usual issues about valuation of biodiversity (total economic value including bequest value, etc.)

Optimal cost-sharing arrangements in a dynamic, stochastic framework, for IS control

Impact of IS management policies on international trade and development

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Pistes de travail R&D 2013 et plus (si affinit ´es) (1/2)

Quelles modalit és ( économiques) de gestion de la jussie sur plusieurs r égions de France ?

Objectif: Pr ´econisations en mati `ere de politique publique pour la gestion de la jussie

Analyse co ûts-b én éfices sur diff érents sites en France Pour diff érents sc énarios de gestion de la jussie Identification de lameilleureoption ?

Contraster diff ´erents sites avec pratiques de lutte diff ´erentes

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Pistes de travail R&D 2013 et plus (si affinit ´es) (2/2)

En pratique :

Analyse des modalit ´es de mise en œuvre de l’option de politique envisag ´ee

Probl ème : besoin de beaucoup d’informations sur l’ écologie de l’esp èce

sa r ´epartition g ´eographique

impacts sur certains services écologiques usages, perceptions et activi és impact ées.