2016 WORLD INVESTMENT REPORT

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U n i t e d n a t i o n s C o n f e r e n C e o n t r a d e a n d d e v e l o p m e n t

WORLD INVESTMENT

REPORT

Investor natIonalIty: PolIcy challenges

2016

UNCTADUNITED NATIONS

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note

The Division on Investment and Enterprise of UNCTAD serves as the focal point for all matters related to foreign direct investment and multinational enterprises in the United Nations System. It builds on more than four decades of experience and international expertise in research and policy analysis on investment and enterprise development, fosters intergovernmental consensus-building, and provides technical assistance to over 150 countries.

The copyright of the material in this publication rests with UNCTAD.

It may be freely quoted or reprinted, but acknowledgement is requested, together with a reference to UNCTAD and this Report. A copy of the publication containing the quotation or reprint should be sent to the UNCTAD Secretariat (e-mail: [email protected]).

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BAN Ki-moon

Secretary-General of the United Nations

preface

In 2015, global flows of foreign direct investment rose by about 40 per cent, to

$1.8 trillion, the highest level since the global economic and financial crisis began in 2008. However, this growth did not translate into an equivalent expansion in productive capacity in all countries. This is a troubling development in light of the investment needs associated with the newly adopted Sustainable Development Goals and the ambitious action envisaged in the landmark Paris Agreement on climate change. This latest World Investment Report presents an Investment Facilitation Action Package to further enhance the enabling environment for investment in sustainable development.

The Addis Ababa Action Agenda calls for reorienting the national and international investment regime towards sustainable development. UNCTAD plays an important role within the United Nations system in supporting these endeavours. Its Investment Policy Framework and the Road Map for International Investment Agreements Reform have been used by more than 100 countries in reviewing their investment treaty networks and formulating a new generation of international investment policies.

Regulations on the ownership and control of companies are essential in the investment regime of most countries. But in an era of complex multinational ownership structures, the rationale and effectiveness of this policy instrument needs a comprehensive re-assessment. This Report provides insights on the ownership structures of multinational enterprises (MNEs), and maps the global network of corporate entities using data on millions of parents and affiliates. It analyses national and international investment policy practices worldwide, and proposes a new framework for handling ownership issues.

This latest edition of the World Investment Report is being issued as the world embarks on the crucial work of implementing the landmark 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the Paris Agreement on climate change. The key findings and policy recommendations of the Report are far reaching and can contribute to our efforts to uphold the promise to leave no one behind and build a world of dignity for all. I therefore commend this Report to a wide global audience.

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aBBreVIatIonS

AGOA African Growth and Opportunity Act APEC Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation BEPS base erosion and profit shifting BIT bilateral investment treaty

BRICS Brazil, Russian Federation, India, China, South Africa CETA Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement CFIA Cooperative and Facilitation Investment Agreement CFC controlled foreign company

CFTA African Continental Free Trade Agreement CIS Commonwealth of Independent States COMESA Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa CSR corporate social responsibility

DOB denial of benefits DTT double-taxation treaty EAC East African Community EPA economic partnership agreement FET fair and equitable treatment

FTA free trade agreement

GATS General Agreement on Trade in Services GFCF gross fixed capital formation

GUO global ultimate owner

GVC global value chain

ICS Investment Court System IIA international investment agreement IPA investment promotion agency

IPFSD Investment Policy Framework for Sustainable Development ISDS investor–State dispute settlement

JV joint venture

LDC least developed country LLDC landlocked developing country M&As mergers and acquisitions

MFN most favoured nation

MNE multinational enterprise

NAFTA North American Free Trade Agreement OFC offshore financial centre

OIA outward investment agency PAIC Pan-African Investment Code

RCEP Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership RTIA regional trade and investment agreements SADC Southern African Development Community SBA substantial business activities

SDGs Sustainable Development Goals SEZ special economic zone SIDS small island developing States SPE special purpose entity

TIFA trade and investment framework agreement TIP treaty with investment provision

TISA Trade in Services Agreement TPP Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement TTIP Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership UNCITRAL United Nations Commission on International Trade Law WIPS World Investment Prospects Survey

WTO World Trade Organization

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acknowledgementS

The World Investment Report 2016 (WIR16) was prepared by a team led by James X. Zhan. The team members included Richard Bolwijn, Bruno Casella, Joseph Clements, Hamed El Kady, Kumi Endo, Michael Hanni, Joachim Karl, Hee Jae Kim, Ventzislav Kotetzov, Guoyong Liang, Hafiz Mirza, Shin Ohinata, Diana Rosert, Astrit Sulstarova, Claudia Trentini, Elisabeth Tuerk, Joerg Weber and Kee Hwee Wee.

Research support and inputs were provided by Eleonora Alabrese, Dafina Atanasova, Jorun Baumgartner, Giannakopoulos Charalampos, Malvika Monga, Francesco Tenuta and Linli Yu. Contributions were also made by Thomas van Giffen, Natalia Guerra, Isya Kresnadi, Kálmán Kalotay, Abraham Negash, Elizabeth Odunlami, Jacqueline Salguero Huaman, Ilan Strauss, Tadelle Taye and Paul Wessendorp.

Statistical assistance was provided by Bradley Boicourt, Mohamed Chiraz Baly and Lizanne Martinez.

The manuscript was edited with the assistance of Caroline Lambert and copy- edited by Lise Lingo; it was typeset by Laurence Duchemin and Teresita Ventura.

Pablo Cortizo was responsible for the overall design of the report, including charts, tables, maps and infographics, as well as DTP. Sophie Combette and Nadège Hadjemian designed the cover. Production and dissemination of WIR16 were supported by Elisabeth Anodeau-Mareschal, Anne Bouchet, Rosalina Goyena, Peter Navarette and Katia Vieu.

At various stages of preparation, in particular during the experts meetings organized to discuss drafts of WIR16, the team benefited from comments and inputs received from these experts: Rolf Adlung, Carlo Altomonte, Paul Beamish, Nathalie Bernasconi, Martin Brauch, Jansen Calamita, Jeremy Clegg, Davide Del Prete, Henrik Dellestrand, Chantal Dupasquier, Xiaolan Fu, Masataka Fujita, Thomas Jost, Markus Krajewski, John Lee, Hemant Merchant, Loukas Mistelis, Premila Nazareth, Sheila Page, Svein Parnas, Markus Perkams, Sergey Ripinsky, Leslie Robinson, Armando Rungi, Pierre Sauvé, Boštjan Skalar, Roger Strange and Jan van den Tooren. The report also benefitted from the discussions of the G20 Trade and Investment Working Group and the UNCTAD Expert Meeting “Taking Stock of IIA Reform”, as well as comments received from the WAIPA Secretariat.

Also acknowledged are comments received from other UNCTAD divisions as part of the internal peer review process, as well as comments from the Office of the Secretary-General as part of the clearance process. The United Nations Cartographic Section provided advice for the regional maps.

Numerous officials of central banks, government agencies, international organizations and non-governmental organizations also contributed to WIR16. In addition, UNCTAD appreciates the support of all the MNE and IPA executives who responded to its 2016 World Investment Prospects and Investment Promotion Agencies surveys. The financial support of the Governments of Finland, Sweden and Switzerland is gratefully acknowledged.

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KEY MESSAGES

GLOBAL INVESTMENT TRENDS

Recovery in FDI was strong in 2015. Global foreign direct investment (FDI) flows jumped by 38 per cent to $1.76 trillion, their highest level since the global economic and financial crisis of 2008–2009. A surge in cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) to $721 billion, from $432 billion in 2014, was the principal factor behind the global rebound. The value of announced greenfield investment remained at a high level, at $766 billion.

Part of the growth in FDI was due to corporate reconfigurations. These transactions often involve large movements in the balance of payments but little change in actual operations.

Discounting these large-scale corporate reconfigurations implies a more moderate increase of around 15 per cent in global FDI flows.

Inward FDI flows to developed economies almost doubled to $962 billion. As a result, developed economies tipped the balance back in their favour with 55 per cent of global FDI, up from 41 per cent in 2014. Strong growth in inflows was reported in Europe. In the United States FDI almost quadrupled, albeit from a historically low level in 2014.

Developing economies saw their FDI inflows reach a new high of $765 billion, 9 per cent higher than in 2014. Developing Asia, with FDI inflows surpassing half a trillion dollars, remained the largest FDI recipient region in the world. Flows to Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean faltered. Developing economies continue to comprise half of the top 10 host economies for FDI flows.

Outward FDI flows from developed economies jumped by 33 per cent to $1.1 trillion. The increase notwithstanding, their outward FDI remained 40 per cent short of its 2007 peak.

With flows of $576 billion, Europe became the world’s largest investing region. FDI by MNEs from North America stayed close to their 2014 levels.

Primary sector FDI activity decreased, manufacturing increased. A flurry of deals raised the share of manufacturing in cross-border M&As above 50 per cent in 2015. FDI in the primary sector declined because of reductions in planned capital expenditures in response to declining commodity prices, as well as a sharp fall in reinvested earnings as profit margins shrank. Services continue to hold over 60 per cent of global FDI stock.

Looking ahead, FDI flows are expected to decline by 10-15 per cent in 2016, reflecting the fragility of the global economy, persistent weakness of aggregate demand, sluggish growth in some commodity exporting countries, effective policy measures to curb tax inversion deals and a slump in MNE profits. Over the medium term, global FDI flows are projected to resume growth in 2017 and to surpass $1.8 trillion in 2018, reflecting an expected pick up in global growth.

REGIONAL INVESTMENT TRENDS

FDI flows to Africa fell to $54 billion in 2015, a decrease of 7 per cent over the previous year. An upturn in FDI into North Africa was more than offset by decreasing flows into Sub- Saharan Africa, especially to West and Central Africa. Low commodity prices depressed FDI inflows in natural-resource-based economies. FDI inflows to Africa are expected to increase moderately in 2016 due to liberalization measures and planned privatizations of state-owned enterprises.

85 ^%

15 ^%

Restriction/Regulation

Liberalisation/Promotion

National investment policy measures

Total IIAs

3,304

in 2015 31

+

annual record

ISDS cases

70 ^New

$1.76 trillion

chaper 1-2 chaper 3

Global FDI

2015

FDI inflows forecast

to fall in 2016

1.8 10-15 ^%

Inflows to Developed economies at their highest level since 2007

Record inflows to

$541 bn

Developedeconomies

took largest share of global FDI

Developed $962 bn Developing

$765 bn

Transition $35 bn

2005–2015

largest investor region in 2015

Europe

$576 bn

but grow over medium-term

+16 ^%

developing Asia

$54 bn

Africa

-7 ^%

2015

38 ^%

+

Complex ownership:

100 MNEs

500 affiliates 50 countries

direct &

ultimate owners

have different passports

of foreign affiliates:

40%

direct & ultimate owners have different passports

of foreign affiliates:

40%

85 ^%

15 ^%

National investment policy measures

Total IIAs

3,304

in 2015 31

+

annual record

ISDS cases

70 ^New

$1.76 trillion

chaper 1-2 chaper 3

Global FDI

2015

FDI inflows forecast

to fall in 2016

1.8 10-15 ^%

Inflows to Developed economies

at their highest level since 2007

Record inflows to

$541 bn

Developedeconomies

$765 bn

Transition $35 bn

2005–2015

largest investor region in 2015

Europe

$576 bn

but grow over medium-term

+16 ^%

developing Asia

$54 bn

Africa

-7 ^%

2015

38 ^%

+

Complex ownership:

100 MNEs

500 affiliates 50 countries

direct &

ultimate owners

have different passports

of foreign affiliates:

40%

direct & ultimate owners have different passports

of foreign affiliates:

40%

85

^%

15

^%

Total IIAs

3,304

in 2015

31

+

annual record ISDS cases

70

^New

$1.76 trillion

chaper 1-2 chaper 3

Global FDI

2015

FDI inflows forecast to fall in 2016

1.8 10-15 ^%

Inflows to Developed economies at their highest level since 2007

Record inflows to

$541 bn

Developedeconomies

took largest share of global FDI Developed $962 bn Developing

$765 bn

Transition $35 bn 2005–2015

largest investor region in 2015

Europe

$576 bn

but grow over medium-term

+16 %

developing Asia

$54 bn

Africa

-7 ^%

2015

38

^%

+

Complex ownership:

100 MNEs

500 affiliates 50 countries

direct &

ultimate owners

have different passports

of foreign affiliates:

40%

direct & ultimate owners have different passports

of foreign affiliates:

40%

x World Investment Report 2016 Investor Nationality: Policy Challenges

(11)

Developing Asia saw FDI inflows increase by 16 per cent to $541 billion – a new record.

The significant growth was driven by the strong performance of East and South Asian economies. FDI inflows are expected to slow down in 2016 and revert to their 2014 level.

Outflows from the region dropped by about 17 per cent to $332 billion – the first decline since 2012.

FDI flows to Latin America and the Caribbean – excluding offshore financial centres – remained flat in 2015 at $168 billion. Slowing domestic demand and worsening terms of trade caused by falling commodity prices hampered FDI mainly in South America. In contrast, flows to Central America made gains in 2015 due to FDI in manufacturing. FDI flows to the region may slow down in 2016 as challenging macroeconomic conditions persist.

FDI flows to transition economies declined further, to levels last seen almost 10 years ago owing to a combination of low commodity prices, weakening domestic markets and the impact of restrictive measures/geopolitical tensions. Outward FDI from the region also slowed down, hindered by the reduced access to international capital markets. After the slump of 2015, FDI flows to transition economies are expected to increase modestly.

After three successive years of contraction, FDI inflows to developed countries bounced back sharply to the highest level since 2007. Exceptionally high cross-border M&A values among developed economies were the principal factor. Announced greenfield investment also remained high. Outward FDI from the group jumped. Barring another wave of cross- border M&A deals and corporate reconfigurations, the recovery of FDI activity is unlikely to be sustained in 2016 as the growth momentum in some large developed economies weakened towards the end of 2015.

FDI flows to structurally weak and vulnerable economies as a group increased moderately by 2 per cent to $56 billion. Developing economies are now major sources of investments in all of these groupings. Flows to least developed countries (LDCs) jumped by one third to $35 billion; landlocked developing countries (LLDCs) and small island developing States (SIDS) saw a decrease in their FDI inflows of 18 per cent and 32 per cent respectively. Divergent trends are also reflected in their FDI prospects for 2016. While LLDCs are expected to see increased inflows, overall FDI prospects for LDCs and SIDS are subdued.

INVESTMENT POLICY TRENDS

Most new investment policy measures continue to be geared towards investment liberalization and promotion. In 2015, 85 per cent of measures were favourable to investors. Emerging economies in Asia were most active in investment liberalization, across a broad range of industries. Where new investment restrictions or regulations were introduced, these mainly reflected concerns about foreign ownership in strategic industries. A noteworthy feature in new measures was also the adoption or revision of investment laws, mainly in some African countries.

National security considerations are an increasingly important factor in investment policies.

Countries use different concepts of national security, allowing them to take into account key economic interests in the investment screening process. Governments’ space for applying national security regulations needs to be balanced with investors’ need for transparent and predictable procedures.

85

^%

15

^%

Total IIAs

3,304

in 2015

31

+

annual record

ISDS cases

70 ^New

$1.76 trillion

chaper 1-2 chaper 3

Global FDI

2015

FDI inflows forecast to fall in 2016

1.8 10-15 ^%

Inflows to Developed economies at their highest level since 2007

Record inflows to

$541 bn

Developedeconomies

$765 bn

Transition $35 bn

2005–2015

largest investor region in 2015

Europe

$576 bn

but grow over medium-term

+16 ^%

developing Asia

$54 bn

Africa

-7 ^%

2015

38

^%

+

Complex ownership:

100 MNEs

500 affiliates 50 countries

direct &

ultimate owners

have different passports

of foreign affiliates:

40%

direct & ultimate owners have different passports

of foreign affiliates:

40%

85

^%

15

^%

Total IIAs

3,304

in 2015

31

+

70

^New

$1.76 trillion

chaper 1-2 chaper 3

Global FDI

2015

FDI inflows forecast to fall in 2016

1.8

10-15 ^%

Inflows to Developed economies at their highest level since 2007 Record inflows to

$541 bn

Developedeconomies

$765 bn

largest investor region in 2015

Europe

$576 bn

+16 %

developing Asia

$54 bn

Africa

-7 ^%

2015

38

^%

+

Complex ownership:

100 MNEs

500 affiliates 50 countries

direct &

ultimate owners

have different passports

of foreign affiliates:

40%

direct & ultimate owners have different passports

of foreign affiliates:

40%

85 ^%

15 ^%

National investment policy measures

Total IIAs

3,304

in 2015 31

+

annual record

ISDS cases

70 ^New

$1.76 trillion

chaper 1-2 chaper 3

Global FDI

2015

FDI inflows forecast

to fall in 2016

1.8 10-15 ^%

Inflows to Developed economies at their highest level since 2007

Record inflows to

$541 bn

Developedeconomies

$765 bn

Transition $35 bn

2005–2015

largest investor region in 2015

Europe

$576 bn

but grow over medium-term

+16 ^%

developing Asia

$54 bn

Africa

-7 ^%

2015

38 ^%

+

Complex ownership:

100 MNEs

500 affiliates 50 countries

direct &

ultimate owners

of foreign affiliates:

40%

direct & ultimate owners have different passports

of foreign affiliates:

40%

xi

Key Messages

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The universe of international investment agreements (IIAs) continues to grow. In 2015, 31 new IIAs were concluded, bringing the universe to 3,304 treaties by year-end. Although the annual number of new IIAs continues to decrease, some IIAs involve a large number of parties and carry significant economic and political weight. Recent IIAs follow different treaty models and regional agreements often leave existing bilateral treaties between the parties in force, increasing complexity. By the end of May 2016, close to 150 economies were engaged in negotiating at least 57 new IIAs.

With 70 cases initiated in 2015, the number of new treaty-based investor-State arbitrations set a new annual high. Following the recent trend, a high share of cases (40 per cent) was brought against developed countries. Publicly available arbitral decisions in 2015 had a variety of outcomes, with States often prevailing at the jurisdictional stage of proceedings, and investors winning more of the cases that reached the merits stage.

IIA reform is intensifying and yielding the first concrete results. A new generation of investment treaties is emerging. UNCTAD’s Investment Policy Framework and its Road Map for IIA Reform are shaping key reform activities at all levels of policymaking. About 100 countries have used these policy instruments to review their IIA networks and about 60 have used them to design treaty clauses. During this first phase of IIA reform, countries have built consensus on the need for reform, identified reform areas and approaches, reviewed their IIA networks, developed new model treaties and started to negotiate new, more modern IIAs.

Despite significant progress, much remains to be done. Phase two of IIA reform will require countries to focus more on the existing stock of treaties. Unlike the first phase of IIA reform, where most activities took place at the national level, phase two of IIA reform will require enhanced collaboration and coordination between treaty partners to address the systemic risks and incoherence of the large body of old treaties. The 2016 World Investment Forum offers the opportunity to discuss how to carry IIA reform to the next phase.

Investment facilitation: a policy gap that needs to be closed. Promoting and facilitating investment is crucial for the post-2015 development agenda. At the national level, many countries have set up schemes to promote and facilitate investment, but most efforts relate to promotion (marketing a location and providing incentives) rather than facilitation (making it easier to invest). In IIAs, concrete facilitation measures are rare.

UNCTAD’s Global Action Menu for Investment Facilitation provides policy options to improve transparency and information available to investors, ensure efficient and effective administrative procedures, and enhance predictability of the policy environment, among others. The Action Menu consists of 10 action lines and over 40 policy options.

It includes measures that countries can implement unilaterally, and options that can guide international collaboration or that can be incorporated in IIAs.

INVESTOR NATIONALITY: POLICY CHALLENGES

More than 40 per cent of foreign affiliates worldwide have multiple “passports”. These affiliates are part of complex ownership chains with multiple cross-border links involving on average three jurisdictions. The nationality of investors in and owners of foreign affiliates is becoming increasingly blurred.

“Multiple passport affiliates” are the result of indirect foreign ownership, transit investment through third countries, and round-tripping. About 30 per cent of foreign affiliates are indirectly foreign owned through a domestic entity; more than 10 per cent are owned through an intermediate entity in a third country; about 1 per cent are ultimately owned by a domestic entity. These types of affiliates are much more common in the largest MNEs: 60 per cent of their foreign affiliates have multiple cross-border ownership links to the parent company.

85 ^%

15 ^%

National investment policy measures

Total IIAs

3,304

in 2015 31

+

annual record

ISDS cases

70 ^New

$1.76 trillion

chaper 1-2 chaper 3

Global FDI

2015

FDI inflows forecast

to fall in 2016

1.8 10-15 ^%

Inflows to Developed economies

at their highest level since 2007

Record inflows to

$541 bn

Developed economies

$765 bn

Transition $35 bn

2005–2015

largest investor region in 2015

Europe

$576 bn

but grow over medium-term

+16 ^%

developing Asia

$54 bn

Africa

-7 ^%

2015

38 ^%

+

Complex ownership:

100 MNEs

500 affiliates 50 countries

direct &

ultimate owners

have different passports

of foreign affiliates:

40%

direct & ultimate owners have different passports

of foreign affiliates:

40%

85 ^%

15 ^%

Total IIAs

3,304

in 2015 31

+

annual record

ISDS cases

70 ^New

$1.76 trillion

chaper 1-2 chaper 3

Global FDI

2015

FDI inflows forecast

to fall in 2016

1.8 10-15 ^%

Inflows to Developed economies at their highest level since 2007

Record inflows to

$541 bn

Developed economies

$765 bn

Transition $35 bn

2005–2015

largest investor region in 2015

Europe

$576 bn

but grow over medium-term

+16 ^%

developing Asia

$54 bn

Africa

-7 ^%

2015

38 ^%

+

Complex ownership:

100 MNEs

500 affiliates 50 countries

direct &

ultimate owners

have different passports

of foreign affiliates:

40%

direct & ultimate owners have different passports

of foreign affiliates:

40%

xii World Investment Report 2016 Investor Nationality: Policy Challenges

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The larger the MNEs, the greater is the complexity of their internal ownership structures. The top 100 MNEs in UNCTAD’s Transnationality Index have on average more than 500 affiliates each, across more than 50 countries. They have 7 hierarchical levels in their ownership structure (i.e. ownership links to affiliates could potentially cross 6 borders), they have about 20 holding companies owning affiliates across multiple jurisdictions, and they have almost 70 entities in offshore investment hubs.

Rules on foreign ownership are ubiquitous: 80 per cent of countries restrict majority foreign ownership in at least one industry. The trend in ownership-related measures is towards liberalization, through the lifting of restrictions, increases in allowed foreign shareholdings, or easing of approvals and admission procedures for foreign investors. However, many ownership restrictions remain in place in both developing and developed countries.

The blurring of investor nationality has made the application of rules and regulations on foreign ownership more challenging. Policymakers in some countries have developed a range of mechanisms to safeguard the effectiveness of foreign ownership rules, including anti-dummy laws, general anti-abuse rules to prevent foreign control, and disclosure requirements.

Indirect ownership structures and mailbox companies have the potential to significantly expand the reach of IIAs. About one third of ISDS claims are filed by claimant entities that are ultimately owned by a parent in a third country (not party to the treaty on which the claim is based). Some recent IIAs try to address the challenges posed by complex ownership structures through more restrictive definitions, denial of benefits clauses and substantial business activity requirements, but the vast majority of existing treaties does not have such devices.

Policymakers should be aware of the de facto multilateralizing effect of complex ownership on IIAs. For example, up to a third of apparently intra-regional foreign affiliates in major (prospective) megaregional treaty areas, such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), are ultimately owned by parents outside the region, raising questions about the ultimate beneficiaries of these treaties and negotiations. Policymakers should aim to avoid uncertainty for both States and investors about the coverage of the international investment regime.

Rethinking ownership-based investment policies means safeguarding the effectiveness of ownership rules and considering alternatives. On the one hand, policymakers should test the

“fit-for-purpose” of ownership rules compared to mechanisms in investment-related policy areas such as competition, tax, and industrial development. On the other, policymakers can strengthen the assessment of ownership chains and ultimate ownership and improve disclosure requirements. However, they should be aware of the administrative burden this can impose on public institutions and on investors. Overall, it is important to find a balance between liberalization and regulation in pursuing the ultimate objective of promoting investment for sustainable development.

of countries restrict

majority foreign ownership in at

least one industry

80%

85

^%

15

^%

Total IIAs

3,304

in 2015

31

+

annual record

ISDS cases

70 ^New

$1.76 trillion

chaper 1-2 chaper 3

Global FDI

2015

FDI inflows forecast to fall in 2016

1.8 10-15 ^%

Inflows to Developed economies at their highest level since 2007

Record inflows to

$541 bn

Developedeconomies

$765 bn

Transition $35 bn

2005–2015

largest investor region in 2015

Europe

$576 bn

+16 ^%

developing Asia

$54 bn

Africa

-7 ^%

2015

38

^%

+

Complex ownership:

100 MNEs

500 affiliates 50 countries

direct &

ultimate owners

of foreign affiliates:

40%

direct & ultimate owners have different passports

of foreign affiliates:

40%

85

^%

15

^%

Total IIAs

3,304

in 2015

31

+

70

^New

$1.76 trillion

chaper 1-2 chaper 3

Global FDI

2015

FDI inflows forecast to fall in 2016

1.8

10-15 %

Inflows to Developed economies at their highest level since 2007 Record inflows to

$541 bn

Developedeconomies

$765 bn

largest investor region in 2015

Europe

$576 bn

+16 %

developing Asia

$54 bn

Africa

-7 ^%

2015

38

^%

+

Complex ownership:

100 MNEs

500 affiliates 50 countries

direct &

ultimate owners

have different passports

of foreign affiliates:

40%

direct & ultimate owners have different passports

of foreign affiliates:

40%

xiii

Key Messages

Mukhisa Kituyi

Secretary-General of the UNCTAD

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CHAPTER I

GLOBAL

INVESTMENT

TRENDS

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Global FDI flows rose by 38 per cent to $1.76 trillion in 2015,¹ their highest level since the global economic and financial crisis of 2008–2009 (figure I.1). However, they still remain some 10 per cent short of the 2007 peak. A surge in cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) to $721 billion, from $432 billion in 2014, was the principal factor behind the global rebound.

These acquisitions were partly driven by corporate reconfigurations (i.e. changes in legal or ownership structures of multinational enterprises (MNEs), including tax inversions). Discounting these large-scale corporate reconfigurations implies a more moderate increase of about 15 per cent in global FDI flows. The value of announced greenfield investment projects² remained at a high level, at $766 billion.

Looking ahead, FDI flows are expected to decline by 10–15 per cent in 2016, reflecting the fragility of the global economy, persistent weakness of aggregate demand, effective policy measures to curb tax inversion deals and a slump in MNE profits. Elevated geopolitical risks and regional tensions could further amplify the expected downturn. FDI flows are likely to decline in both developed and developing economies, barring another wave of cross-border M&A deals and corporate reconfigurations. Over the medium term, global FDI flows are projected to resume growth in 2017 and to surpass $1.8 trillion in 2018 (see figure I.1).

A. CURRENT TRENDS

Developed economies World total

Transition economies Developing economies

Figure I.1. Global FDI inflows by group of economies, 2005−2015, and projections, 2016−2018

(Billions of dollars and per cent)

0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

$1762

+38%

35

+84%962

-38%

765+9%

55%

P R O J E C T I O N S

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1. FDI by geography

a. FDI inflows

FDI recovery was strong in 2015, but lacked productive impact. Global FDI flows jumped by 38 per cent to $1,762 billion. The rise in FDI was somewhat at odds with the global macroeconomic environment, which was dominated by slowing growth in emerging markets and a sharp decline in commodity prices. The principal explanation for this seeming inconsistency was a surge in cross-border M&As, especially in developed economies.

Although FDI through cross-border M&As can boost productive investments, a number of deals concluded in 2015 can be attributed to corporate reconfiguration, including tax inversions. Such reconfigurations often involve large movements in the balance of payments but little change in actual MNE operations. This trend was especially apparent in the United States and Europe, but was also noticeable in the developing world. In Hong Kong (China), a part of the sharp uptick in inward FDI can be attributed to the restructuring of two large conglomerates (chapter II).

Discounting these deals implies, however, a more moderate increase of about 15 per cent in global FDI flows. In 2015, announced greenfield investments reached $766 billion – an 8 per cent rise from the previous year. The rise was more pronounced in developed economies (up 12 per cent), signalling a potential rebound in FDI in productive assets as macroeconomic and financial conditions improve.

In this context, a concern is the apparent pullback in productive investments by MNEs. During 2015, capital expenditures by the 5,000 largest MNEs declined further (down 11 per cent) after posting a drop in 2014 (down 5 per cent) (figure I.2).

To some extent, these trends are a reflection of the current global macroeconomic situation. A large number of MNEs in the extractive sector, for example, reduced their capital expenditures and have announced significant reductions in their medium-term investment plans. Likewise, MNEs in other sectors are reviewing their capital expenditure needs and trade in light of slowing global growth and weakening aggregate demand. In 2015, the volume of world trade in goods and services failed to keep pace with real GDP growth, expanding just 2.6 per cent as compared with an average rate of 7.2 per cent between 2000 and 2007, before the financial crisis.

Figure I.2. Top 5,000 MNEs: capital expenditures and acquisition outlays, 2007−2015 (Billions of dollars)

1 708 705

2007

1 921 612

2008

1 691 280

2009

1 768 353

2010

2 026 456

2011

2 227 488

2012

2 260 367

2013

2 155 463

2014

1 927 544

2015

Capital expenditures Acquisition outlays

(18)

The meagre growth in trade volumes after the financial crisis, while in part explained by weaker economic growth and fixed capital formation, has also been partly attributed to a significant slowdown in the pace of international vertical specialization.

The geographic pattern tilted in favour of developed economies in 2015, although developing Asia remained the largest recipient of FDI flows. Flows to developed economies nearly doubled (up 84 per cent) rising from $522 billion in 2014 to $962 billion.

FDI to developing economies – excluding Caribbean financial centres – increased to $765 billion, a rise of 9 per cent, while those to transition economies fell by 38 per cent to $35 billion (figure I.3). The net result was that the share of developed economies in world FDI inflows leapt from 41 per cent in 2014 to 55 per cent in 2015 (see figure I.1), reverting a five-year trend that had seen developing and transition economies emerge as majority recipients of these flows.

FDI flows to North America and Europe registered particularly large increases during the year (see figure I.3). In North America the increase in foreign investment, which rose 160 per cent to $429 billion, was driven by a more than 250 per cent increase in flows to the United States.

Although the comparison with 2014 is skewed due to the exceptionally low level of that year, the $380 billion FDI inflows to the country in 2015 represent the highest level since 2000. FDI flows to Europe were also up sharply (65 per cent, to $504 billion) as a result of a 50 per cent increase in FDI to the European Union and a large upturn in Switzerland (from $7 billion to $69 billion).

A surge in cross-border M&As during the year was the primary driver of the increase in FDI flows to developed economies. The value of the deals rose by 109 per cent to $631 billion, reaching their highest level since 2007. Activity was particularly pronounced in the United States, where net sales rose from $17 billion in 2014 to $299 billion. Deal making in Europe was also up significantly (36 per cent).

A large-scale increase in FDI flows to Asia contrasted with a more modest performance in other developing regions. Overall FDI flows to developing and transition economies registered a modest rise (6 per cent). This increase, however, belies a much more complex picture, as a large increase in FDI to some Asian economies offset significant declines in nearly every developing region and in transition economies. Investment flows fell in Africa (down 7 per cent to $54 billion), Latin America and the Caribbean (down 2 per cent to $168 billion) and in transition economies (down 38 per cent to $35 billion). These trends notwithstanding, half of the top 10 largest recipients of FDI were from developing economies (figure I.4).

Figure I.3. FDI inflows, by region, 2013–2015 (Billions of dollars)

2013 2014 2015

Developing Asia Europe North America Transition

economies Latin America and

the Caribbean Africa

431

323 283

176

52 85

468

306

165 170

58 56

541 504

429

168

54 35

(19)

A primary catalyst of decreasing inflows in developing and transition economies was the continued decline in commodity prices, especially for crude oil and for metals and minerals.

The precipitous fall in oil prices that occurred in the second half of 2014 weighed heavily on FDI flows to oil-exporting countries in Africa, South America and transition economies. FDI to oil-producing economies was affected not only by reductions in planned capital expenditures in response to declining prices, but also by a sharp reduction in reinvested earnings as profit margins shrank. Economies in which mining plays a predominant role in FDI also registered declines.

An associated factor was the relatively slow growth of emerging markets as a whole, which dampened investment activity. Among BRICS economies, which represented roughly a third of FDI flows to developing and transition economies, Brazil and the Russian Federation were in recession. Growth was slow in South Africa, slowing in China and relatively stable in India. In turn, depreciating national currencies weighed on profits when expressed in dollars, which put downward pressure on reinvested earnings.

FDI inflows, top 20 host economies, 2014 and 2015 (Billions of dollars)

Figure I.4.

Developed economies

Developing and transition economies

2014 2015

(x) = 2014 ranking

380 175 136 101 73 69 65 65 49 44 43 40 32 31 30 25 22 20

20 17

107 114

129 31

52 7

68 73 59 35 15

52 1

-9 26 12

40 23 21 12

United States (3) Hong Kong, China (2) China (1) Ireland (11) Netherlands (8) Switzerland (38) Singapore (5) Brazil (4) Canada (6) India (10) France (20) United Kingdom (7) Germany (98) Belgium (189) Mexico (13) Luxembourg (23) Australia (9) Italy (14) Chile (17) Turkey (22)

Figure I.5.

Developed economies:

FDI outflows and their share in total world outflows, 2005−2015

(Billions of dollars and per cent)

Share Value

Developed economies Share in world FDI outflows

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600 1 800 2 000

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

(20)

b. FDI outflows

Investments by MNEs from developed economies surged. Europe became the world’s largest investing region. In 2015, MNEs from developed economies invested abroad

$1.1 trillion – a 33 per cent increase from the previous year, with MNEs from Europe and Japan contributing to the growth.³ This increase notwithstanding, their level of FDI remained 40 per cent short of its 2007 peak. MNEs from developing and transition economies, in contrast, reduced their investment. These trends resulted in a significant shift in the overall share of developed countries in world FDI outflows, which rose from 61 per cent in 2014 to 72 per cent in 2015 (figure I.5).

The reemergence of European MNEs as major investors, after experiencing four consecutive years of declining investment, was the major driver of this surge. Their outward FDI rose 85 per cent in 2015 to $576 billion, accounting for almost 40 per cent of global FDI outflows. Behind this result was a strong rebound in their cross-border M&A purchases, the net value of which rose to $318 billion in 2015, up more than five times from $57 billion in 2014, a year that was abnormally low due to the divestment of Vodafone’s (United Kingdom) stake in Verizon Wireless (United States) for $130 billion. Excluding the effect of this deal, the value of their net purchases still jumped 70 per cent.

The upturn in cross-border M&As was due in part to more favourable financial conditions, as the European Central Bank undertook stimulus measures.

Competition also created its own dynamics for deal making in industries such as pharmaceuticals, where tax considerations were often a key motivator. For example, the acquisitions of Allergan (United States) by Actavis (Ireland) for $68 billion, of Sigma (United States) by Merck AG (Germany) for $17 billion, and of the Oncology Business of GlaxoSmithKline PLC (United States) by Novartis (Switzerland) for $16 billion.

Rising investment by European MNEs, boosted by a number of megadeals, also served to reshuffle the make-up of the top 20 investors in 2015. In particular, Switzerland (from the 153 spot in 2014 to 7th), Belgium (32nd to 11th) and Ireland (9th to 5th) rose markedly in this ranking (figure I.6). Foreign investment by MNEs from North America posted a 1 per cent decrease, with a significant gain in Canada (21 per cent) being offset by a moderate decline in the United States (down 5 per cent). Nevertheless, both countries retained their 2014 rankings, with the United States as the largest outward investor and Canada as the eighth largest. Japanese MNEs continued to seek growth opportunities abroad, investing more than $100 billion for the fifth consecutive year, making the country the second largest investor in 2015.

317 114

123 56

43

106

-3

56

125

23 5

39 43

35 28 27

64

9 18 12

300

129 128

113 102 94

70 67 55

39 39 35 35

35 28 28 27

24 19 16

FDI outflows, top 20 home economies, 2014 and 2015 (Billions of dollars)

Figure I.6.

Developed economies

Developing and transition economies

2014 2015

(x) = 2014 ranking United States (1) Japan (4) China (3) Netherlands (7) Ireland (9) Germany (5) Switzerland (153) Canada (8) Hong Kong, China (2) Luxembourg (15) Belgium (32) Singapore (11) France (10) Spain (12) Republic of Korea (13) Italy (14) Russian Federation (6) Sweden (22) Norway (16) Chile (19)

(21)

By contrast, almost all developing and transition regions saw their FDI outflows decline.

In developing Asia, which had emerged as the largest investing region in 2014, MNEs cut their foreign investments by 17 per cent to $332 billion. This decline, which amounted to roughly

$70 billion, was driven principally by a 56 per cent fall in outward FDI from Hong Kong (China) (chapter II).

Weakening aggregate demand and declining commodity prices, accompanied by depreciating national currencies, weighed on outward investment from many developing and transition economies. In addition, in a number of cases regulatory as well as geopolitical considerations shaped outward investment flows. FDI by Russian MNEs slumped, reflecting, in part, the effect of their reduced access to international capital markets and new policy measures that sought to reduce “round-tripping” investments (chapter II). Regional conflict has also dampened the confidence of some West Asian MNEs.

Against this general downward trend, a limited number of developing economies registered an increase in their outward FDI. Examples include China (rising from $123 billion to $128 billion), which remained the third largest investor in the world after the United States and Japan.

The country has become a major investor in some developed countries, especially through cross-border M&As (chapter II). Other countries that saw a rise of FDI abroad include Kuwait (from –$10.5 billion to $5.4 billion) and Thailand (from $4.4 billion to $7.8 billion). Latin America also saw its FDI outflows rise by 5 per cent, mainly due to changes in intracompany loans (chapter II).

Equity outflows Reinvested earnings Other capital (intracompany loans)

Figure I.7. FDI outflows by component, by group of economies, 2007–2015 ^{(Per cent)}

Developed-economy^a MNEs Developing-economy^b MNEs

54 43 3

22 65 14

33 54 13

44 52 4

44 46 10

48 52 1

50 43 7

60 24 16

58 30 12

47 49 4

60 38 1

52 44 4

42 41 17

44 46 10

53 43 4

64 37

54 30 16

55 26 19

0 -1 25 50 75 100

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

a Economies included are Australia, Austria, Belgium, Bermuda, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States.

b Economies included are Algeria, Angola, Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Barbados, Belize, Benin, the Plurinational State of Bolivia, Botswana, Brazil, Burkina Faso, Cabo Verde, Cambodia, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Côte d’Ivoire, Dominica, El Salvador, Fiji, the Gambia, Grenada, Guatemala, Guinea-Bissau, Honduras, Hong Kong (China), India, Indonesia, Iraq, the Republic of Korea, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mali, Mexico, Mongolia, Montserrat, Morocco, Mozambique, Namibia, Nicaragua, the Niger, Nigeria, Pakistan, Panama, Papua New Guinea, the Philippines, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Samoa, Senegal, Seychelles, Singapore, Solomon Islands, South Africa, Sri Lanka, the State of Palestine, Suriname, Taiwan Province of China, Thailand, Togo, Turkey, Uganda, Uruguay, Vanuatu, the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela and Viet Nam.

2016 WORLD INVESTMENT REPORT

WORLD INVESTMENT

REPORT

Investor natIonalIty: PolIcy challenges

2016

note

preface

aBBreVIatIonS

acknowledgementS

taBle of contentS

KEY MESSAGES

GLOBAL INVESTMENT TRENDS

REGIONAL INVESTMENT TRENDS

85 %

15 %

Total IIAs

3,304

in 2015 31

+

annual record

ISDS cases

70 New

$1.76 trillion

2015

FDI inflows forecast

to fall in 2016

1.8

10-15 %

Inflows to Developed economies at their highest level since 2007

Record inflows to

$541 bn

largest investor region in 2015

Europe

$576 bn

but grow over medium-term

+16 %

developing Asia

$54 bn

Africa

-7 %

2015

38 %

+

Complex ownership:

100 MNEs

500 affiliates 50 countries

direct &

ultimate owners

have different passports

of foreign affiliates:

40%

direct & ultimate owners have different passports

of foreign affiliates:

40%

85 %

15 %

National investment policy measures

Total IIAs

3,304

in 2015 31

+

annual record

ISDS cases

70 New

$1.76 trillion

chaper 1-2 chaper 3

Global FDI

2015

FDI inflows forecast

to fall in 2016

1.8

10-15 %

Inflows to Developed economies

at their highest level since 2007

Record inflows to

$541 bn

Developedeconomies

largest investor region in 2015

Europe

$576 bn

85 ^%

15 ^%

70 ^New

10-15 ^%

+16 ^%

-7 ^%

38 ^%

85 ^%

15 ^%

70 ^New

10-15 ^%

+16 ^%

-7 ^%

38 ^%

10-15 ^%

-7 ^%

70 ^New

10-15 ^%